For a guy who didn’t play at all in 2019, and was right around replacement level the year before, Evan Gattis has been in the news a fair bit this winter. In fact, as much as any of the Astros’ marquee players, he’s become one of the faces of their illegal sign-stealing efforts and the aftermath, a situation he’s confronted with a candor rare among his former teammates, but typical of his time in the majors. Last week, the 33-year-old slugger confirmed that his playing career is indeed over. In his six-year career, the free-swinging Gattis hit .248/.300/.476 (110 wRC+) with 139 homers and 8.9 WAR, but those numbers barely scratch the surface of what’s been one of the more improbable tours through the professional ranks in recent memory.

Within The Athletic’s landmark November 12 report on the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts was a reference to a September 21, 2017 game in which White Sox reliever Danny Farquhar described hearing a banging sound while on the mound. That trash can-based signal was the cue to alert an Astros hitter if a breaking ball or offspeed pitch was coming. Within hours, Jimmy O’Brien of Jomboy Media posted a detailed breakdown to Twitter and YouTube, showing Farquhar facing off against Gattis, with audible bangs anticipating some of the pitcher’s selections. Upon reaching a 2-2 count, Farquhar summons catcher Kevan Smith; the two changed signs, and Gattis struck out chasing a low changeup.

On YouTube, that clip of Gattis receiving signs and then getting hung out to dry once they were changed — compelling audiovisual evidence to accompany the deep reporting of Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich — has been watched over 4.5 million times. Gattis has struck out four and a half million times on that pitch alone. Read the rest of this entry »

This is the latest installment of a daily series in which the FanGraphs staff rounds up the latest developments regarding the COVID-19 virus’ effect on baseball.

MLB Considers Fan-Less Season

According to a report by Ken Rosenthal, the league is considering playing games in empty spring facilities in the event that a return to existing facilities and cities is impossible. The plan is still preliminary, and given the speed with which COVID-related health advisories have been changing, is far from settled, but the bones of the plan would see every team quarantine themselves in Arizona and play at spring training facilities.

There are still myriad details to be settled, as is the case for any effort to bring baseball back in the midst of a national emergency. The resources needed to quarantine 800 or so players, as well as gameday staff and other essential personnel, aren’t trivial when local and state resources are already stretched to their breaking point. The league would need special government dispensation for the gatherings. And players would need to be frequently tested — if any player tested positive for COVID-19, the league would likely shut down immediately to prevent the spread.

Still, from MLB’s perspective, if the alternatives are a pie-in-the-sky plan to play games in empty stadiums or no games at all, it’s clear to see why they prefer this one. It’s entirely possible that this is the only way a major league season can happen at all this year, so contingency planning of this type makes perfect sense. There are still wrinkles to be worked out, but backup plans like this are simply good business practice at the moment. Read the rest of this entry »

With no sports on the horizon in the near-term, the NBA is looking for creative ways to keep fans entertained. According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the NBA and ESPN are working to televise a game of HORSE:

Discussions have been ongoing among the NBA, NBPA and ESPN about a competition among several players in isolation — presumably using home gyms — that would include them competing shot for shot in the traditional playground game, sources said.

It’s now been 27 years, but the most famous game of HORSE was a fictional one from a McDonald’s commercial that featured Michael Jordan and Larry Bird:

https://youtu.be/NlVYMPIucUM

Read the rest of this entry »

The only thing we know for sure about the 2020 MLB schedule (brought to you by COVID-19) is that it won’t be 162 games. Whatever truncated mutant of a year baseball ends up with will likely be the shortest on record since at least 1994, when most teams got about 70% of the way through the calendar before the strike happened and canceled the rest. Given the current state of things in the United States — with coronavirus still rampant and several states and cities already issuing stay-at-home orders that will run through most of May — it’s unlikely we’ll get even that much of the season played. But no one knows for sure: MLB, like the rest of us, is at the mercy of a virus and its containment measures. Rumors of a 100-game season chock full of doubleheaders played in empty stadiums and a southern California World Series are nothing more than thin gristle to chew on while we wait for more substantive news.

Without a doubt, there are meetings happening in MLB’s now-virtual offices to try to plan for the future. Aside from Rob Manfred timing these Zoom get-togethers and demanding precious minutes be shaved off them, we can’t know for sure what’s being discussed, but how to cram as much of a baseball season as possible into an ever-shrinking window is likely top of the action list. Every day lost further complicates that endeavor, though, as does the fact that MLB’s normal schedule is already a wobbly Jenga tower of unequal matchups and cross-country travel. Like Tetris, every block has to fit into just the right place, or else it all piles up into disaster. Being an outdoor sport in a Northern Hemisphere continent already imposes hard limitations on how far into the year baseball can extend; losing warm-weather months makes it all the tougher.

But amid the carnage and chaos of how to fit too much baseball into too little time, there’s an opportunity for MLB to do something different, if not revolutionary. The sport has long been locked into the construct that is 162 games; now it’s being forced out of that comfort zone. Let’s use this space, then, to get weird, or maybe even find a better way to be. And how would that be, you may be saying to yourself. I’m glad you asked. Read the rest of this entry »

The first time I interviewed Keston Hiura was over the phone. This was a few months after he’d been taken ninth overall by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2017 draft. Hiura was playing for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, and he called at the assigned time from a Midwest League ballpark after batting practice. I don’t recall which ballpark.

I was in Lowell, Massachusetts at a New York-Penn League game that had already started. It was loud at LeLacheur Park, so I talked to Hiura from the relative quiet of a stairwell down the left-field line. The interview went well. I found the former UC Irvine Anteater to be both forthcoming and articulate.

The second time I interviewed Hiura was at the Brewers spring training complex, four weeks ago. Standing face-to-face — closer than the six-foot distance now deemed necessary — I accused him of being boring.

Truth be told, the pertinent ground had already been covered. In our earlier long-distance conversation we’d gone over the toe tap into a high leg kick, the inside-out swing with a high finish, the way he kept both hands on the bat. For good measure, we’d touched on his patience-paired-with-aggression approach.

Everything that was true then is true now. Read the rest of this entry »

This is the latest installment of a daily series in which the FanGraphs staff rounds up the latest developments regarding the COVID-19 virus’ effect on baseball.

IHME Roadmap

One of the most detailed COVID-19 projections out there is produced by the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, a research instituted founded in 2007. The IHME model endeavors to project how long until states reach peak resource use, including hospital and ICU beds, as well as ventilators. That the model breaks things down state by state is crucial because given the size of the United States, it seems likely that we’ll face two months of individual hot spots that peak at different times rather than one uniform disaster. It’s important to note that the IHME model assumes both that current social distancing measures will remain in place and that the remaining straggler states will enact similar measures as well.

This kind of modeling isn’t just important for policymakers and citizens, but for businesses like Major League Baseball that are attempting to map out their return to normalcy. If these projections turn out to be accurate, it could provide baseball with a lot of useful information as to which places will be safer to hold games sooner (fanless or otherwise), and which dates to look to for an apex to the virus’ trajectory. If states start missing their projected peaks, it will tell everyone that the road ahead will be harder than previously expected, and plans can be made (or adjusted) accordingly. Again, all of this is predicated on the assumption that we continue to practice social distancing. So for the sake of your family and neighbors (and to hasten baseball’s return), please stay home as much as possible. Read the rest of this entry »

Before the COVID-19 pandemic stopped Major League Baseball in its tracks, the illegal sign-stealing scandal and its aftermath was one of the game’s top stories, not only as the Astros continued their half-assed apology tour around the Grapefruit League, but as commissioner Rob Manfred’s hotly-anticipated report into the Red Sox’s sign-stealing activities hung in the balance. For the past few weeks, more pressing matters have prevailed, but a few details of where things stand regarding the sign-stealing mess have emerged, enough to gather into a single roundup. Mostly, they all serve to remind us just how much we miss baseball, the booing as well as the cheering.

Hinch and Luhnow suspensions won’t extend beyond 2020

If you were lying awake at night wondering how the year-long suspensions of the Astros’ former manager A.J. Hinch and president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow would be affected by the stoppage, it appears that you now have an answer, though it may keep you tossing and turning. Sources told ESPN’s Buster Olney that in the event no baseball is played in 2020, the pair, who were almost immediately fired by Astros owner Jim Crane when Manfred released his report on January 13, would be considered as having served their suspensions. The specific wording in the report (PDF here) states that both suspensions end “on the day following the completion of the 2020 World Series” rather than mandating a specific number of games missed. The report obviously did not account for the contingency of the cancellation of part or all of the 2020 season due to pandemic, but likely any official declaration that the World Series is indeed scrubbed due to previously unforeseen circumstances would apply, thus ending the suspension.

Presumably, it’s the specificity of the report’s wording that has led to this conclusion. MLB must believe that it’s on thin ice if Manfred revises the punishment now, either on legal grounds or simply as a matter of precedent, and as we’ve seen throughout this saga, precedent is everything when it comes to handing down punishments. What’s more, one need only look at the league’s reluctance to launch investigations into both the Astros and the Red Sox despite the numerous complaints — 10 to 12 teams went to the commissioner’s office about the Astros “cheating their asses off for three or four years,” according to the Washington Post, and Manfred sounded assurances that the scandal was confined to the Astros even as rumors swirled — to draw the inescapable conclusion that the league’s desire for closure far outweighs its zeal to administer punishment. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s now been three weeks since Rudy Gobert’s positive test for COVID-19 shut down the NBA; the rest of the sports world soon followed. That same night, Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson announced that they had also tested positive, providing the country with ample evidence that COVID-19’s impact would be real and invade all of our lives. We are all affected by this pandemic, and we’ve all been left asking what we should be doing for ourselves and others. While that private contemplation can be helpful, asking others how they are coping can shape our own thoughts and feelings in useful ways. Sports were the among the first things to go, and without an upcoming season to write about, I thought I’d ask those who talk about sports for a living what their plans were during this unexpected hiatus.

Since that strange Wednesday, I’ve talked to a handful of people in the industry, all of whom were gracious with their time and forthright with their answers. I talked to Mike Ferrin, who hosts a show on MLB Network Radio every morning. He talked about balancing the seriousness of the news with the necessity of still being himself. He discussed the opportunity baseball’s delay gave him to go a little deeper with interviews, with history, and with the numbers, and expressed confidence in the sport’s ability to bounce back.

I talked to Kavitha Davidson, who hosts a daily podcast for The Athletic (her show isn’t behind a paywall). She spoke about covering the news of the day and how on many days, that news was going to be COVID-19 related. Discussing Tom Brady’s free agency and eventual signing was necessary, but it would also be impossible to pretend that the NFL offseason is the only thing going on. She mentioned setting up a podcasting space at home since she couldn’t go into the office, and how she and her friends were setting up a virtual St. Patrick’s Day in place of actually going out and having the usual brand of fun associated with the holiday. Read the rest of this entry »

Dave Rozema had a colorful career. A free-spirited changeup artist, the Grand Rapids, Michigan native debuted with the Detroit Tigers in 1977 — one year after Mark “The Bird” Fidrych took baseball by storm — and while injuries soon took their toll, he started off with a bang. In a whirlwind rookie season, Rozema worked 218.1 innings, and went 15-7 with a 3.09 ERA.

He wasn’t averse to having fun, nor was he immune from trouble. Rozema was involved in multiple fracases, both on and off the field. On one occasion he emerged, in the words of Royals outfielder Willie Wilson, looking a lot like Rocky Raccoon.

This interview — originally intended for a book project that has remained on the back burner — was conducted in 2010, at Tigers fantasy camp in Lakeland, Florida.

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David Laurila: How did you come to sign with the Tigers [in 1975]?

Dave Rozema: “I was drafted in the fourth round, but it was in the January [secondary phase]. In the summer draft, I hadn’t been drafted until the 27th round [by San Francisco], so I wasn’t really that good. I had been offered a full ride to Eastern Michigan, along with Bob Owchinko and Bob Welch, but I decided to go to Grand Rapids Community College. I wasn’t a big scholar; my grades weren’t that good.

“[Tigers scout] Bob Sullivan asked me, ‘Hey, do you want to play baseball?’ I went, ‘Yeah.’ He went, ‘I’ll get you a few bucks. Detroit. Fourth round.’ My heart said I wanted to play pro ball, so I signed.”

Laurila: Your first professional season was in Clinton, Iowa, with Jim Leyland as your manager. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball, like the world around it, has been flooded with bad news for the last couple of weeks. Normally, losing one of the game’s most exciting 20-something pitchers to Tommy John would create a splash on the level of Dan-doing-a-cannonball-into-a-kiddie-pool. But in these times, the ripples created by the news of Noah Syndergaard’s surgery (along with Chris Sale’s) were relatively minor. What are UCLs compared to the concerns of COVID-19?

But it is bad news. Bad for the Mets and bad for Syndergaard himself. How bad? For a change of pace, let’s start off with the long-term projection rather than finish with it. The projection is notable in this case as there’s a key difference in the model. With no actual game-related news to distract me, I’ve been able to complete work on one of my ongoing data projects: better long-term playing time projections for players with injuries, especially serious ones that cause entire seasons to be missed.

While ZiPS has had a generalized model for injuries — both specific and, well, general — for some time, the focus was mainly on projecting how well the player would play upon returning and the long-term qualitative impact on their play. So long-term, pitchers with bum shoulders would fare worse than those taking a trip to Dr. Andrews’ Magic Elbow Factory, and speedy infielders with leg problems would see their aging curves accelerate. Less of the focus had been the long-term effect on playing time itself, something I’ve been able to work on a lot recently. Read the rest of this entry »