Imagine an auction that takes place between three bidders. The item in question? An envelope filled with money. All three bidders employ teams of analysts that attempt to ascertain how much money is in the envelope, based on a variety of evidence that isn’t important for this analogy. Each bidder thus arrives at an estimate of the fair value of the envelope. Then they place a single sealed bid. The highest bidder out of the three gets the envelope.

What bidding strategy would you employ? Here’s a bad one: Just bid what your team of analysts calculates as the expected value of what’s in the envelope. The reason this is bad is known as the winner’s curse. If each bidder comes up with an estimate of fair value and bids that number, the winner will be the one with the highest estimate of fair value. In other words, you’ll only win if your estimation of the envelope’s value is higher than everyone else’s, and since you’re always paying exactly what you’re hoping to gain, you’ll tend to lose in the long run.

Allowing for a lot of approximation, this situation describes free agency in major league baseball. Every free agent has an unknowable amount of expected future production. Teams employ armies of analysts who attempt to estimate that production. Then, armed with that knowledge, they make contract offers to that free agent, in competition with other teams.

As I said, there’s a ton of approximation and simplification going on here. Players aren’t envelopes filled with money. Team context matters. Players don’t have to accept the highest bid. Tax regimes aren’t equal, and non-monetary incentives matter, too. Contracts are complex, and there’s no requirement that they be the same number of years, have the same number of options, no trade clauses, or anything of the sort. There’s no agreed-upon universal value system; different players present different value to different teams.

But that doesn’t mean the abstracted case has no use. As we approach the trade deadline, I think there’s one clear one: dispelling the myth that teams refuse to give up much to trade for a player who just signed a big free agent deal — after all, if they valued them enough for a blockbuster, they would have just offered a bigger contract, right? That’s a great soundbite, so you hear it all the time, but it doesn’t jive with established economic theory. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the fun things about baseball (that’s also one of the fun things about life in general) is that at any moment you can look for and find something that you alone are seeing, that you alone are paying enough attention to notice, that you alone care about. Last Wednesday, the Twins finally lost to the White Sox. The Twins had won their first eight matchups with the South Siders, and they would beat the Sox again later that day. In fact, if not for the opportunity to pummel the White Sox at frequent intervals, Minnesota’s first half would look much different and much darker. But just this once, in the first game of Wednesday’s doubleheader, the Twins lost to the White Sox.

The bird showed up sometime during the first inning. It wasn’t there when Carlos Correa slapped the 11th pitch of the game through the right side for a single, but in the bottom of the inning, when Andrew Vaughn grounded into a 5-4-3 double play and the camera whipped around the horn to follow the ball, there it was — perched on a steel cable right above the on-deck circle as if it had been there forever.

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He may not be playing in Arlington tonight, but Christian Walker just wrapped up an All-Star level first half. The Diamondbacks first baseman came into the All-Star break ranked third in the National League with 22 home runs, fifth with 66 RBI, and among the top 15 qualified batters in wOBA (.357), xwOBA (.365), and wRC+ (131). His 10 OAA are third-most among NL fielders, while his 7 DRS, 4.1 UZR, and 8 FRV are all the top marks at his position. Thanks to his spectacular defensive performance, the two-time Gold Glove winner is the only qualified NL first baseman who has provided positive defensive value at first despite the hefty positional adjustment. On top of that, he has played in all 97 of Arizona’s games so far, putting him on pace for more than 700 plate appearances this season.

Add his offense, defense, and durability together and you get 2.9 WAR, which places Walker in the top 15 among NL position players and top 30 in the majors. Considering that 46 position players were invited to the Midsummer Classic this year, it’s hard to deny that Walker is having an All-Star worthy season. At the same time, it’s also hard to get too fired to up about his “snub.” Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman have put up superior offensive numbers and WAR totals, rightfully earning the two guaranteed spots for first basemen on the NL roster. In addition, three NL players with more WAR and arguably even stronger All-Star cases than Walker were also left off the squad: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Willy Adames. Finally, this isn’t even the most disappointing time Walker has missed out on a trip back to Globe Life Field within the past 10 months. Still, it’s a shame that Walker’s excellent first half will go unrewarded. At 33 years old, the late bloomer is putting together the best season of his career at the plate and in the field. Surely, that deserves to be celebrated. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Thursday, a Q&A titled “Chris Bassitt Embraces the Art of Pitching” ran here at FanGraphs. In it, the 35-year-old Toronto Blue Jays right-hander discussed his diverse repertoire — “eight or nine pitches,” he told me — and how he uses them to attack hitters. Both stylistically and variety-wise, Bassitt is a close approximation of a pitcher who will represent the Kansas City Royals in tonight’s All-Star Game. That would be Seth Lugo.

The Royals were at Fenway Park last weekend, and with Boston being my home base, I took the opportunity to talk to the 34-year-old right-hander. I expected a conversation similar to the one I’d had with Bassitt, and I was by no means mistaken. Lugo, who boasts a 2.48 ERA and a 3.31 FIP this season, very much embraces the art of pitching.

———

David Laurila: How have you developed as a pitcher over the years?

Seth Lugo: “I would say that I’ve learned from failure. Coming up through the minors is different than pitching in the big leagues. Once you get to the big leagues you start to notice a pattern with how your mistakes are happening, whether it’s a pitch, sequences, or game situations. I think that learning from my mistakes has been the biggest thing for me.”

Laurila: You used to be known primarily for your curveball, and now you have a varied repertoire. How has your adding of pitches evolved?

Lugo: “Well, as a reliever I would usually just stick with my best two pitches and show one or two more, whether it be [against] a righty or a lefty, a changeup or a slider. When I was in San Diego last year, the pitching coach, Ruben Niebla, was talking about sweeper sliders. I’d never heard the term sweeper before. I didn’t really know what it meant. We started messing with some grips. He told me, ‘You can spin it good. You can spin some other stuff, so it doesn’t have to be just one pitch you’re spinning so well.’ That’s kind of how that came along.

“Growing up, I was always messing around with balls, whether it was a Whiffle Ball or a baseball. I was throwing pitches, just having fun. I’ve always had the ability to pick up a new pitch pretty quickly, so I realized that I can throw more than just three or four pitches in a game. Right now it’s up to 10 or 11. I’m keeping the hitters off balance and recognizing their swing paths, trying to make an adjustment before they do.”

Laurila: What is your full repertoire right now?

Lugo: “Two-seam, four-seam, cutter, change, split-change, sweeper, slow sweeper, one that I call the carry sweeper, slurve, curveball, and slider — a regular slider.”

Laurila: You’re basically Chris Bassitt…

Lugo: “I think I’ve got one or two more than him. I was also throwing a gyro sweeper earlier in the season — I haven’t thrown it in about four starts now — so then I had 12 pitches.”

Laurila: Gyro sweeper sounds counterintuitive…

Lugo: “Yeah. It’s like a one-seam gyro spin that catches. It’s a bigger horizontal break than a regular gyro slider. It’s not depth-y, but shoots to the left pretty good. A sweeper is going to have side spin. Gyros have bullet spin. A gyro sweeper is bullet spin, but with one seam… one seam that catches. A seam-shift gyro.”

Laurila: But you’re not actually throwing it now…

Lugo: “I’ll probably bring it back out. I was working through a couple of other things. Between that one and my slider they were starting to blend a little bit. But yeah, I’ll bring it back out one day.”

Laurila: How did you initially learn it?

Lugo: “I had someone reach out to me. He said that a lot of guys around the league are swinging and missing at gyro spin, and if you can find a way to get more sweeper action with gyro spin, that one’s pretty hard to hit. I think [Alec] Marsh throws a variation of that. Tinkering with a couple of grips, I found one that worked pretty good. But I kind of got away from it a little bit. I picked it up after a month, just this season, so I haven’t had a lot of time to work on it and find the consistency.”

Laurila: Who suggested the pitch?

Lugo: “A guy I know. I’ll leave it at that.”

Laurila: How many pitches did you have when you moved into a starting role last season?

Lugo: “In the offseason, I developed a different slider. I threw it for two months last year before I figured out the sweeper and the other pitches. It was like a slow slider, which I haven’t thrown since. So, it was two sliders, changeup, four-seam, sinker, curveball.”

Laurila: You’ve basically doubled the number of pitches you’re throwing…

Lugo: “In about a year, yeah. I was on the IL and that’s when I came up with a couple of pitches — in June, last year.”

Laurila: I assume you’ve used a lot of tech when developing pitches?

Lugo: “It’s actually more feel for me. Feel and just the horizontal and vertical movements. We’ve got the TrackMan. I don’t look at spin rates, really. I check on my curveball every once awhile, just to make sure it’s spinning like it should, but mostly it’s just horizontal and vertical movements that I look at.”

Laurila: Are you still throwing the same curveball?

Lugo: “Same curveball I’ve always had. I’ve just learned how to use other pitches off of it to make it perform better. My first couple years, with two strikes you were probably getting a curveball. That makes it easier to hit. Guys could eliminate pitches really easily. Now, having four or five pitches in their head when they get to two strikes makes the curveball perform even better.”

Laurila: Where do you think you’d be if you were still a reliever? Would you be as good as you are now?

Lugo: “Well, I wouldn’t have all of these pitches. I would say it would be similar to my career average. I would kind of be where I was.”

Laurila: With your ability to utilize a variety of pitches, starting seems like a natural fit.

Lugo: “Yeah. That and reading swings, and trying to get guys off certain pitches to save them for later in the game. Finding holes where I can go to them over and over. As a reliever, you’re only facing three or four guys, so they can be ambushing first pitch, or they could be taking to get a strike. It’s kind of a smaller game plan, tactic, to pitch as a reliever.

“As a starter, if a guy has a big hole you’re going to expose that hole. But if the guy is a pretty good hitter — he’s hard to get out — you’re going to show all of your pitches, and you’ve got to know where each of them fits. As I’m going over these hitters, we’re talking about where we’re going to throw each one. Some of them might not even be competitive, but I want them to look at it and think about it. I try to find a spot to throw every pitch, even if it’s a pitch they hit well. There is going to be somewhere they don’t hit it — it might be in the dirt — but we’re going to throw it.”

Laurila: You mentioned saving pitches. What is the value in not throwing something you know a hitter has a hard time handling?

Lugo: “So, let’s say it’s the four-hole hitter. This pitch is going get him out most every time — he’s got some weak contact on it — but he’s not going to swing and miss at it. There is no one on base and we’ve got a three-run lead. I’m not going to go straight to my best pitch to get him out; I’m going to save that for when there are two guys on and no outs. In a different situation, you pitch different. That also keeps it harder for guys to pick up my sequences.”

Laurila: Something I’ve asked a lot of pitchers is whether they view pitching as more of an art or as more of a science. I think I know what your answer would be…

Lugo: “It’s an art. I mean, science will help you. Like with anything, you can use science to make your techniques better. You can use it as a learning tool, but you can’t just plug it in. There are too many variables out there for it to work every time. Ultimately — at least to me — it’s not a science. It’s an art.”

Ah, the trade deadline. It’s a time to dream about the huge moves your club could make. It could go get a big bopper, the kind of hitter who could put the team on his back down the stretch and carry it to October. Maybe you’re more interested in a CC Sabathia-style workhorse, a starter who could anchor your pitching staff and throw as many innings as you need, regardless of what that number is. Perhaps an electrifying defender is on the table, or a game-breaking speedster who could transform your lineup. But let’s be realistic: None of that’s going to happen. Instead, your team is going to trade for a reliever.

Relievers are the common currency of the trade deadline. Every team needs more of them. I don’t see a single bullpen in baseball that couldn’t benefit from adding an arm or two. Meanwhile, most of the acquisitions fans dream about simply aren’t on the table, because those players don’t exist. Sure, half a season of one of the best hitters in baseball is enticing, but you can’t get that at the trade deadline because no team has one to spare, at least not for a reasonable cost. But relievers? Oh, there will be relievers on offer.

Today’s article is something of a real world shopping guide. Obviously, a huge move would be more fun. Maybe Luis Robert Jr. or Garrett Crochet will get traded. Realistically, though, most of the prizes this deadline will be middle relievers. So let’s take stock of an assortment of the best options who might be on the market, as well as what past years suggest about their probable cost in prospects.

A few rules of engagement: I’m looking only at likely sellers, and going team by team. I didn’t use a hard-and-fast rule in terms of playoff chances when constructing my seller’s list, and I’m erring on the expansive side, so if I list your team in the article and you think they’re still in the race, my apologies. I’m using the last few years of trade returns as a guide, and I’m going to stick to naming prospect value tiers rather than individual names. Let’s get started.
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For those who enjoy the loudest, simplest, most dopamine-drenched form of baseball, today is a special day. It’s Derby day, and even better, the silly hats are not mandatory. The MLB Home Run Derby takes place at 8:00 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. What the Costco-coded ballpark lacks in aesthetics it makes up for in bulk. According to Statcast’s park factors, Globe Life yields more home runs than the average park both for righties (120) and for lefties (110), so we should be in for a show. You can watch on ESPN, but if you’re a nerd – and you’re reading FanGraphs right now, so I’m sure you can do the math on this one – you’ll probably prefer the Statcast broadcast over on ESPN 2.

As in any year, there’s a laundry list of Derby-worthy players who won’t be participating, with Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Elly De La Cruz at the top. Still, this a solid sampling of swatters, and nearly every participant figures to have a legitimate shot at winning. Either we’ll have a first-time winner or Pete Alonso will take home his record-tying third title.

The field features three of the top six home run hitters in baseball this season — Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, and José Ramírez — and two of the game’s brightest young shortstops: AL MVP candidates Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.. It also includes three sluggers who take the Derby much more seriously than your average participant — Alonso, Henderson, and Teoscar Hernández — and two others who’ve won derbies at lower levels: Witt and Alec Bohm. Finally, there’s Adolis García, an electrifying slugger whose historic power display during the Rangers’ World Series run last season is sure to keep the crowd at full throat. In the sections below, I’ll break down all the new rules and I’ll try to make a case for why each candidate has a shot at the crown. Read the rest of this entry »

FanGraphs was at the Futures Game in Arlington on Saturday. In total, 16 pitchers appeared in the seven-inning game. The following are some quick notes on every pitcher who toed the rubber during All-Star weekend’s premier prospect event. Obviously one game isn’t enough on its own to move the needle significantly for any of these guys — they all have a large body of work that can better inform our evaluations — but it’s useful to see whose stuff ticks up when they’re in an environment like the Futures Game and get to let it eat in a shorter burst than they’re accustomed to. Read the rest of this entry »

Josh Rojas has turned himself into a plus defender. My colleague Ben Clemens chronicled that advancement last month, citing the Mariners infielder’s improved ability to go to his left as a primary reason for his markedly-better metrics. Exactly what type of adjustments have allowed the 30-year-old third baseman to turn the proverbial corner with his glove? I happened to be in Cleveland when Seattle began a road series against the Guardians on the day Ben’s article ran, so was able to get the answer right from the horse’s mouth.

“It was a matter of adjusting what works best for me reacting to balls left and right,” Rojas told me. “It has to do with my preset. Not getting down too early, not getting down too late. Picking up contact points. Another thing that helps is knowing how the ball usually comes off guys’ bats when certain pitchers are throwing. There is constant communication between me, the pitching coaches, and Bone [infield coach Perry Hill] on what the plan is for the series.”

The preset is what I was most interested in, so I asked the erstwhile Arizona Diamondback — Rojas became a Mariner at last July’s trade deadline — if he could elaborate. Read the rest of this entry »

The Texas Rangers came into the season with every intention of competing for another World Series championship. While the team had a fairly low-key winter, the ZiPS projection system thought it would be legitimately competitive in the AL West, though not necessarily one of baseball’s top teams. Instead, with less than half the season’s slate of games remaining, Texas sits uncomfortably below .500 with the playoff math looking increasingly daunting.

When the season began, my understanding was the Rangers expected to struggle at times during the first half, especially in the rotation, and they were OK with that as long as they didn’t fall too far behind the other AL West contenders, the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners. The organization was comfortable letting Jordan Montgomery walk in free agency because it felt the team had enough punch in the lineup to remain in the division race long enough for at least some of its injured pitchers to get healthy and reinforce the roster, which would be as good as acquiring a starter in a deadline trade.

For about a month, this scenario seemed to be playing out. The Astros limped miserably out of the gate, and the Mariners didn’t do much better. The Rangers spent most of April leading the AL West, but they didn’t build enough of a cushion. That came back to bite them when Seattle caught fire and Houston turned its season around. Simultaneously, Texas went in the other direction. Since May 1, the Rangers offense has put up a 92 wRC+, and that’s with the benefit of Corey Seager mashing after his early slump (.286/.367/.563 in that span) and Wyatt Langford hitting way better since coming off the IL in late May (.285/.339/.464). With the 17th-ranked ERA and 24th-ranked FIP since the start of May, the pitching staff hasn’t exactly made up for the offensive shortfall.

As of Thursday morning, ZiPS has the Rangers with a 10% chance to make the playoffs, far short of their projected 56% odds coming into the season. The projections still see the AL West as a race, but mostly between the Astros and Mariners, with Texas assuming the role of the third-place underdog.

Of course, 10% isn’t zero, but the Rangers certainly have their work cut out for them. ZiPS currently assumes that, on average, the Rangers will be a .500 team the rest of the season. Let’s make a different assumption, that ZiPS is very wrong, and on average, they will be a .530 team from here on out. That still only boosts their playoff probability to 17.8%. Simply playing better is no longer enough, and there is unlikely to be any kind of reasonable deadline addition that would help them flip the script.

At the same time, Texas is still positioned well for a run in 2025, so there’s no need to blow the whole team up. Looking at just the main contributors under team control, ZiPS generally sees brighter days ahead next season.

ZiPS projects this group of players to win six or seven more games in 2025 than they’re projected to this season. (The win total for 2024 is a combination of the team’s season-to-date and rest-of season projections.) That’s an impressive number in most circumstances, but even more so for a rather old team; the offense is slightly older than league average and the pitching staff is the oldest in the majors. This group already has a good case for contention in 2025.

So if this year’s a longshot and 2025 looks better, what’s the winning argument for not retooling with a focus toward improving the roster for next season? That’s not rhetorical; I don’t have a good one (and feel free to make one in the comments that my cold-stricken brain couldn’t conjure). Again, the Rangers won the World Series last fall, and having that ring already earned ought to give the team some room to maneuver without angering the fanbase. Now, the Rangers won’t be able to snag prospects on the level of Jackson Holliday or James Wood for the players they’d be willing to trade, but in swaps for their players on expiring contracts — Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, David Robertson, Andrew Heaney, José Leclerc, Kirby Yates, and Michael Lorenzen — I would think they could at least get some talent that could help them in the future, even if you assume Scherzer sticks to his stated preference that he won’t waive his no-trade clause.

Dropping out of a race when you’re the defending champ is a tough thing to do psychologically. But the Rangers are in a bad place right now, and by throwing in the towel, they could improve their chances to contend for another title in 2025.

With the Blue Jays a whopping 16 games out of first place in the American League East and eight teams in front of them in the wild card race, right-hander Chris Bassitt and several other notable Toronto players could be traded before the fast-approaching July 30 trade deadline. It would make a lot of sense for the Blue Jays to move on from Bassitt, a 35-year-old on a contract worth $22 million annually that extends through next season. No shortage of contenders are seeking pitching help, and Bassitt would seemingly yield an attractive return.

His track record is that of a reliable starter. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Bassitt has logged a 3.43 ERA and a 3.79 FIP while tossing the seventh-most innings in the majors. Moreover, after a rocky first month (5.64 ERA, 5.55 FIP across his first six starts), he has been at the top of his game since the beginning of May. Bassitt boasts a 2.69 ERA and a 3.02 FIP over his past 13 starts, and he’s gone at least five frames in all of them. Overall, he is 8-7 with a 3.52 ERA, a 3.73 FIP, and 2.0 WAR across 107 1/3 innings this season.

How does the 10-year veteran approach his craft? I sat down with him earlier this month to find out.

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David Laurila: Would you call yourself a pitching nerd?

Chris Bassitt: “I like to understand the art of it, for sure. I would say that it’s more been a fascination with just watching guys. I’ve been blessed to be teammates with a lot of guys who are really, really good, and I’ve always liked to watch the pitches they use, how they use them, who they use them against. Things like that.

“If I’m having struggles with, say, a certain type of hitter, I kind of go back to what I’ve seen in the past with other pitchers and what they’ve done. If that makes me a nerd, then yeah.”

Laurila: Are you mostly just watching — I’m sure video is a big part of that — or are you also digging into the data? Read the rest of this entry »