Archive for Effectively Wild

Effectively Wild Episode 1802: EW, David

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the election of David Ortiz, the ballot banishments of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling, and the rest of the Hall of Fame voting results (including Scott Rolen’s auspicious surge), react to reports about the latest labor talks (with an emphasis on the problems with using public WAR metrics to determine pre-arbitration bonuses), wonder why the Giants avoided the Kevin Gausman market, marvel at the virtues of throwing fastballs right down the middle, and discuss two sudden-death scenarios: the Frontier League’s new extra-innings solution, and an NFL-inspired one-game-playoffs plan.

Audio intro: Another Michael, “Big Pop
Audio outro: John Cale, “Sudden Death

Link to 2022 HoF voting results
Link to 2021 HoF voting results
Link to Jay Jaffe on the results
Link to Jason Sardell’s projections
Link to projections comparison
Link to BBHOF Tracker
Link to Emma on the Tracker
Link to Passan on Bonds
Link to Michael Baumann on PED players
Link to data on new votes for Bonds/Clemens
Link to Ben on abstaining from voting
Link to January 24 MLBTR labor update
Link to January 25 MLBTR labor update
Link to later January 25 MLBTR update
Link to MLBTR on canceling games
Link to Sean Forman WAR thread
Link to Jonathan Judge article
Link to Russell Carleton on WAR use
Link to Ben on ever-evolving WAR
Link to Gausman report
Link to Forbes franchise valuations
Link to Justin Choi on fastballs
Link to Frontier League announcement
Link to J.J. Cooper on the Frontier League
Link to Tango’s Frontier League tweet
Link to FiveThirtyEight on the NFL weekend
Link to Neil Paine on true talent
Link to Michael Lopez on playoff randomness
Link to Joe Sheehan’s playoff proposal
Link to Ben on Schilling

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Effectively Wild Episode 1801: Split End

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the demise of the Rays’ two-city, split-season scheme, Carlos Correa hiring Scott Boras as his agent, and Brandon Gomes of the Dodgers becoming the latest ex-player to ascend to GM, then (31:18) talk about numerous listener nominations of baseball events that predated the podcast that would have made great fodder for Effectively Wild, before closing with a Stat Blast (1:05:20) about the biggest intra-season gaps between Triple-A and MLB performance (plus a postscript about robot umps coming to Triple-A in 2022).

Audio intro: The Smiths, “I Won’t Share You
Audio outro: Flamin’ Groovies, “Ups and Downs

Link to news about Rays plan
Link to Sternberg quote
Link to Evan Drellich on Endeavor
Link to Drellich on Endeavor again
Link to Ben Clemens on Endeavor
Link to MLBTR on Correa
Link to Travis Sawchik on Boras
Link to Gomes profile
Link to Facebook suggestions thread
Link to story about two balls in play
Link to story about Raines and collusion
Link to Sonnanstine story
Link to Allan Travers SABR bio
Link to hitter Stat Blast data
Link to pitcher Stat Blast data
Link to Ben on experimental rules
Link to robot umps news

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Effectively Wild Episode 1800: All of This Has Happened Before

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley lean into the lockout by exploring two antecedents to today’s MLB labor stalemate. First, they banter with Emma Baccellieri of Sports Illustrated about whether the Hall of Fame Vote Tracker has helped or hurt Hall of Fame conversations, then talk to Emma about the Players’ League, a short-lived but groundbreaking 19th-century rival to the National League that was founded by and for players, touching on the origins of the reserve clause, the Players’ League’s rapid rise and fall, where it went wrong, and whether a Players’ League equivalent could be created today (plus Joe Torre’s proto-keto diet and catching fly balls with one’s cap). Lastly (52:32), they bring on Dayn Perry of CBS Sports to talk about the 50th anniversary of MLB’s first work stoppage, exploring what caused the 1972 strike, how the circumstances then mirrored today’s, and how the strike was covered (plus a mustache panic, entrance songs, and other notable events from 50 years ago).

Audio intro: Al Stewart, “A League of Notions
Audio interstitial: Eleventh Dream Day, “The People’s History
Audio outro: The Inbreds, “Moustache

Link to Hall of Fame Vote Tracker
Link to Emma on the Tracker
Link to Buster Olney on the Tracker
Link to Emma on the Players’ League
Link to Emma’s previous pod appearance
Link to Torre’s diet
Link to John Montgomery Ward SABR bio
Link to The Great Baseball Revolt
Link to SI Union thread
Link to story about 1940s Mexican League
Link to Federal League wiki
Link to Continental League wiki
Link to antitrust exemption post
Link to Casali facemask video
Link to EW episode on throwing gloves
Link to Drellich update
Link to Dayn’s 1972 retrospective
Link to The Infinite Inning episode
Link to The Athletic’s fan survey
Link to Rosenthal column
Link to Dayn’s website

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Effectively Wild Episode 1799: Miller’s Crossing

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley reconnect with former cohost Sam Miller to discuss what he’s been up to since he stopped working for ESPN in December 2020, how the 2021 Giants rekindled his fandom, the pros and cons of paying attention to projections, what (if anything) he’s missed about covering baseball professionally, his plans for the future, the virtues of trying new things, doing dishes, and more.

Audio intro: Donovan, “Skip-A-Long Sam
Audio outro: Ohio Players, “Here Today and Gone Tomorrow

Link to Sam on projections

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Effectively Wild Episode 1798: The 2022 Minor League Free Agent Draft

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs writer Ben Clemens banter about a few details of MLB’s latest labor proposal to the players, the conclusion of and possible confounding factors behind a Bill James study about how switching teams affects a player’s chances of Hall of Fame induction, another historic hire of a woman in baseball, and a prospective “Lab League” logo, then (22:52) extend a cherished podcast tradition by conducting the ninth annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Draft, in which they select 10 minor league free agents each and compete to see whose roster will accumulate the most combined MLB playing time in 2022.

Audio intro: Ronnie Spector, “Try Some, Buy Some
Audio outro: The Bens, “Stop!

Link to CBA proposal details
Link to J.J. Cooper on the prospect proposal
Link to Bill James HoF study
Link to article about Red Sox hiring
Link to Lab League logo
Link to revamped Lab League logo
Link to MLB “duck” logo
Link to list of MiLB free agents
Link to Jeff on Shoemaker
Link to Bannister on Hill
Link to Castellani delivery
Link to Ben on pitcher deception
Link to EW competitions and drafts

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Effectively Wild Episode 1797: Familiarity Breeds Contempt

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a bargaining meeting between MLB and the MLBPA that reportedly produced little progress toward a deal, the odds of a punctual start to the season, the retirement of Jon Lester and their lasting fascination with his pickoff-throw yips, a familiarity penalty for relievers who face the same team multiple times within a postseason series, what the mysteriously rapid decline of Jimmie Foxx says about the value of injury information that we generally lack, and the Atlantic League mound reverting to 60 feet, six inches, then answer listener emails about an NFL tie scenario and the zombie runner, active players as GMs, how long the podcast (and MLB) could survive a lockout, why the best catchers’ career WARs aren’t higher, whether player-managers could ever make a comeback, Shohei Ohtani’s satisfaction with the state of the sport, and changing the dimensions of a ballpark (like Camden Yards) to favor a certain group of players.

Audio intro: PUP, “Familiar Patterns
Audio outro: The Posies, “Throwaway

Link to CBA proposal details
Link to Jeff Sullivan on Lester
Link to August Fagerstrom on Lester
Link to Ben on Lester
Link to Lester’s bounce pass
Link to old Lester episodes
Link to old news Facebook group thread
Link to postseason reliever research
Link to regular-season reliever research
Link to Ben on postseason SP familiarity
Link to Pages from Baseball’s Past
Link to Craig Wright’s first Foxx story
Link to Craig’s second Foxx story
Link to study on injuries and exit velo
Link to Atlantic League press release
Link to story on the almost-tie scenario
Link to Barnwell on the almost-tie
Link to Rob Mahoney on the Lakers
Link to article about LeBron as GM
Link to Jeff on a baseball LeBron
Link to oral history of Verlander trade
Link to Emma on the Players’ League
Link catcher JAWS page
Link to Ben on catcher career standards
Link to Ohtani profile
Link to Ohtani photo thread
Link to Ohtani “10 Essentials” video
Link to story on Orioles fence move
Link to analysis of Orioles fence move
Link to Statcast park factors
Link to story on Veeck moving fences
Link to story on White Sox field move
Link to story on home run robberies
Link to story on ballpark homogenization
Link to “burn the boats” story

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Effectively Wild Episode 1796: Major League Biasball

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Rachel Balkovec becoming the first female manager in affiliated ball, Genevieve Beacom making her pro debut in Australia, and other women breaking baseball boundaries, then (13:20) conclude their “Measuring the Unmeasurable” series about studying difficult-to-quantify aspects of the sport by bringing on Rob Arthur of Baseball Prospectus and Rockies catcher AJ Lewis to discuss Rob’s research into racial bias in scouting and player promotions, the lack of Black catchers in MLB, AJ’s catching career and experience with inner-city baseball programs, ways to promote African-American participation in baseball, the demands of playing catcher compared to playing other positions, and more. Then (48:27) they talk to Shakeia Taylor about a recent study about the demographics of MLB managers, the unique nature of Dusty Baker, her reporting about the “Selig Rule,” ways to improve front-office diversity (and the different types of diversity), the impact of sabermetrics on hiring decisions, what MLB could learn from other leagues, the catcher-to-manager pipeline, and her SABR interview series.

Audio intro: Tommy Tutone, “Rachel
Audio interstitial: Son Volt, “Catching On
Audio outro: A Tribe Called Quest, “Mind Power

Link to Times story about Balkovec
Link to Beacom debut video
Link to Beacom video interview
Link to article about Beacom
Link to Sara Goodrum news
Link to Jaime Vieira story
Link to story about Becky Hammon
Link to Rob on bias in player promotions
Link to Rob on Black catchers
Link to Claire Smith on Black catchers
Link to Jared Diamond on Black catchers
Link to story about AJ
Link to story about Rockies signing AJ
Link to story about Moller
Link to AJ’s Instagram
Link to AJ’s Twitter
Link to Ben and Rob on scouting bias
Link to Bryant’s list of Black catchers
Link to Bryant on Maxwell
Link to story on Black player percentage
Link to Rob on manager demographics
Link to Shakeia’s website
Link to Shakeia’s feature
Link to Selig Rule change story
Link to Global Sport Institute study results
Link to “Rediscovering America’s Pastime”
Link to study on Black player drain
Link to story on youth baseball cost
Link to Ballpark Figures series

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Effectively Wild Episode 1795: Measured Tones

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley continue their “Measuring the Unmeasurable” series about studying difficult-to-quantify aspects of the sport by bringing on Rob Mains of Baseball Prospectus to banter about ESPN’s new Sunday Night Baseball broadcasting plans and discuss Rob’s studies about competitive balance, team mobility and inequality, starter vs. reliever performance, the magnitude and history of the times-through-the-order penalty, the universal DH, injuries, and more. Then (50:25) they bring on the pseudonymous author of research blog Hareeb’s Hangout to talk about the potential pitfalls of baseball analysis, how baseball analysis compares to esports analysis, his history of betting on baseball, his studies on the cause of the TTOP, reliever sequencing, valuing closers, and the difficulty of fielding pulled balls, the proprietary data he wishes he had, and his recent research interests.

Audio intro: Neko Case, “Bracing for Sunday
Audio interstitial: Math and Physics Club, “All the Mains Are Down
Audio outro: The Muffs, “Where Did I Go Wrong

Link to ESPN SNB press release
Link to Rodger Sherman on the Manning broadcast
Link to The Press Box on the Manning broadcast
Link to Jason Benetti Nerdcast tweet
Link to Rob on pitching to contact
Link to Rob on small-market teams
Link to Rob on relievers vs. starters
Link to Craig Edwards on relievers vs. starters
Link to Travis Sawchik on relievers vs. starters
Link to Rob on pitching and payrolls
Link to Rob on the times-through-the-order penalty
Link to Rob on the TTOP again
Link to Rob on 2021 injuries
Link to Rob on the DH and interleague play
Link to Rob on the universal DH
Link to Rob on team mobility and inequality
Link to Rob on 2021 mobility inequality
Link to post on Rocket League and pitcher velocity
Link to post on Rocket League viewership
Link to second post on Rocket League viewership
Link to MTG Arena post
Link to post on regression and linear weights
Link to second post on regression/linear weights
Link to study on the TTOP
Link to other study on the TTOP
Link to study on repertoire and the TTOP
Link to study on reliever sequencing
Link to BP piece on reliever sequencing
Link to study on Wins Above Average Closer
Link to study on pulling the ball
Link to Tango’s response to study
Link to Tango on playing center vs. corners
Link to Eno Sarris on playing outfield corners
Link to Mike Petriello on outfielders and spin

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Effectively Wild Episode 1794: Play Up and Pay Up

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley continue their “Measuring the Unmeasurable” series about studying difficult-to-quantify aspects of the sport by talking to Patrick Brennan about his studies on assessing player development at the major and minor league levels, the challenges of evaluating player development, the data he wishes he had, the most and least successful player development organizations, his work as the director of analytics for the Kansas State baseball team, analyzing pitch sequencing, and his baseball ambitions. Then (34:32) they bring on Pitcher List’s Grant Washburn to discuss his metric for measuring unpurchased wins, Wins Below Replacement Ownership, the importance of having a good owner, the data he couldn’t include, the owners who spend the least on player payroll relative to revenue, why having a high payroll isn’t always enough, saying “the MLB,” and more.

Audio intro: Billy Joel, “A Minor Variation
Audio interstitial: The Legal Matters, “Minor Key
Audio outro: Aerosmith, “Eat the Rich

Link to Patrick’s study on MiLB player dev
Link to Patrick’s study on MLB player dev
Link to first Driveline study on player dev value
Link to second Driveline study on player dev value
Link to article on Patrick’s work with Kansas State
Link to Patrick’s study on pitch sequencing
Link to Ben on college player development
Link to Grant’s WBRO study
Link to Grant’s WBRO data

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Effectively Wild Episode 1793: Measuring the Unmeasurable

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Fanatics purchasing Topps and MLB Network reportedly parting ways with Ken Rosenthal because of his criticism of Rob Manfred. Then (27:36) they kick off a series of episodes about measuring difficult-to-quantify aspects of the sport by talking to Cameron Grove about translating his study of astrophysics into baseball research, assessing pitchers’ stuff, the cause of the time through the order penalty, pitcher deception, catcher game-calling, tracking and analyzing pitchers’ motions from video, proprietary data he wishes he had, the behavior of the ball, and his baseball ambitions. Finally (1:12:00), they bring on Eric Chalek to explain how he developed Major League Equivalencies (MLEs) for Negro Leaguers and other pre-integration Black baseball players, how his MLEs help put those players’ careers in context, the challenge of assessing league quality, Josh Gibson’s and Satchel Paige’s MLEs, Cooperstown implications, and missing data.

Audio intro: Robert Plant, “Network News
Audio interstitial 1: Jimi Hendrix, “Astro Man
Audio interstitial 2: The New Pornographers, “Loose Translation
Audio outro: The Delgados, “Ballad of Accounting

Link to WSJ report on Fanatics/Topps
Link to EW episode about Fanatics/Topps
Link to report about Rosenthal and Manfred
Link to 2020 Rosenthal column
Link to Rosenthal tweet
Link to Cameron’s website
Link to DESI’s Wikipedia page
Link to Cameron’s pitch quality app
Link to Cameron’s TTOP tweet
Link to Cameron’s other TTOP tweet
Link to previous familiarity/fatigue research
Link to Cameron on pitcher workloads
Link to Ben on playoff familiarity
Link to Cameron on over/underperformers
Link to Cameron’s motion data
Link to Ben on pitching deception
Link to Cameron on game-calling
Link to Cameron on game-calling leaders
Link to Cameron on the ball’s behavior
Link to Alan Nathan on fly ball variation
Link to Cameron on umpiring difficulty
Link to Adam Darowski EW interview episode
Link to Adam’s interview with Eric
Link to 42 for 21 EW interview episode
Link to Eric’s 42 for 21 ballot
Link to Adam on post-integration stars
Link to Hall of Stats MLEs announcement
Link to Eric’s website
Link to Eric’s MLE method for hitters
Link to Eric’s MLE methods for pitchers

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