I’ve made an end-of-season update to the top 100 prospects list, which you can now see on The Board. With the season is over, these rankings are frozen in the “2022 Updated” section of The Board, and aside from me pulling off some stray rookie graduates from this season, there will be no more changes until prospect lists start rolling out this offseason. As always, an arbitrary endpoint to the “top 100” list doesn’t make sense — the tier of players who are about as good as the 100th best prospect in baseball extends beyond that — so this is an ordinal ranking of the top 109 prospects in baseball at this time. This group will likely expand to close to 120 players throughout our offseason evaluations.

What might change now that the minor league season is over? We still have five weeks of Arizona Fall League, the tail end of instructs, and all of winter ball in Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. Plus, whatever info and scout/industry opinions are on their way to my ears and brain are on a bit of a lag, which is especially relevant for the prospects who were in the DSL this year and at instructs in Florida.

This update was made with a focus on upper-level players, ones who are on the precipice of the big leagues and could conceivably play a role in 2023. I used a light touch on the Top 100 guys who are in the Fall League (you can see which prospects are playing there over on the Seasonal tab of The Board) since I’ll be evaluating that group in person over the next several weeks, and that includes players who had good seasons (like Jordan Lawlar) and guys who had rough ones (like Luis Matos). The Fall League is stacked, and I hope to see you out there. Read the rest of this entry »

Ranked and briefly analyzed below are the prospects who have been traded during the loosely defined “deadline season,” which for simplicity’s sake I consider all of July. Most of the deals these prospects were a part of have been analyzed at length on this site. An index of those pieces can be found here, or by clicking the hyperlink in the “Trade” column below, which will take you to the relevant article. I’ve moved all of the 35+ FV and above players listed here to their new orgs over on The Board, so you can click through to see where they rank among their new teammates and read their full scouting reports. Our Farm Rankings, which update live, also reflect these changes, so you can see where teams’ systems stack up following the draft and the deadline compared to prior to the draft and relevant 2022 prospect graduations.

I’ve included the compensatory draft pick the Cubs will receive after they extend Willson Contreras a qualifying offer and he signs elsewhere, as they will essentially be trading him for that pick if he signs with another team this offseason, which I think is the most likely outcome. Now, on to the rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last two and a half years, the Nationals’ World Series championship roster has deteriorated around Juan Soto, hollowed out by trades and underperformance. After rejecting a 15-year, $440 million extension offer, the club realized Soto’s camp was hellbent on him hitting free agency, an eventuality that put Washington at risk of only receiving draft pick compensation for him, and not until a few years from now. With new ownership looming, the Nationals were unlikely (and the team’s current owners seemingly unwilling) to build a contender around Soto before he hit the market; every passing day, arbitration year, and postseason spent in Washington diminished his trade value. Once the team decided to move on, it made sense to deal Soto now, while the club trading for him could enjoy him for three postseasons instead of two. Still, it’s a painful parting, just as it’s painful for it to have unfolded in public the way that it did, with information leaked to prime fans with the logic I outlined above in the hopes of avoiding blowback.

The Padres, meanwhile, obviously coveted Soto. A.J. Preller tends to press the gas pedal a little harder than other folks in the industry, both in terms of the players he asks for and what he’s willing to give up in return. There are alternate timelines in which this deal doesn’t get done. There are iterations of a Bryan Reynolds trade that could have occurred this past winter that would have put Soto out of reach; there’s a version of the 2020-21 offseason where Nolan Arenado becomes a Padre instead of a Cardinal. But because those (and other deals) didn’t happen, and thanks to James Wood’s emergence, the Padres still had enough at the top of their farm system to trade for a 23-year-old future Hall of Famer and carry several of the most exciting and talented players of this century on their roster at the same time while they’re at it. Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish all have enduring baseball significance. The Padres are no-doubt contenders and among the most exciting teams in pro sports.

That comes at a great cost. There are many talented players headed to Washington in this trade: MacKenzie Gore, C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell III, and Wood are all current or recent Top 100 prospects, while Jarlin Susana might have the nastiest stuff of any pitcher his age in pro baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

Late Friday night, the Mariners and the Reds consummated the first blockbuster trade of the deadline period, with changeup artist Luis Castillo on his way to the Pacific Northwest for a considerable haul of young players headlined by No. 11 overall prospect Noelvi Marte. In exchange for about a year and a half of Castillo, the Reds netted a combination of upside (Marte, 18-year-old Low-A shortstop Edwin Arroyo, and burgeoning reliever Andrew Moore) and stability (likely 2023 rotation contributor Levi Stoudt).

The 20-year-old Marte, a potential All-Star shortstop and a 60 FV prospect, is hitting .275/.363/.462 at High-A Everett and has actually performed better than that more recently, slashing .301/.379/.549 since the beginning of June; he hit 15 homers and 19 doubles in 85 games prior to the trade. Marte has his doubters, or at least people in the industry who would take the under on my personal evaluation of him. There are scouts and clubs who were discouraged by his early-season conditioning; others are skeptical of his hit tool. Most commonly, though, there are scouts who think he won’t stay at shortstop. This is in part due to the way his physique looked early this season (it wasn’t bad, but was close to maxed-out), and also because Marte has had issues with errors, mostly of the throwing variety; he has accumulated 24 total errors already in 2022. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is the last chunk of notes I’ll publish on players taken in the 2022 draft, as it’s time to gear up for the trade deadline while also laying foundation for the 2023 class, the evaluation of which is already underway throughout the industry, with the Cape Cod League, Team USA activity, MLB’s PDP program and other summer showcase ball all having begun. Each of the top 125 picks from the 2022 class has a record with a scouting report over on The Board. Below, I have at least a quick one-sentence scouting blurb on the players selected between picks 125 and 250 overall; for the sake of brevity, players who were on The Board prior to the draft and were picked after 125 are only on The Board rather than appearing here. I also included some players picked beyond 250 overall who I like in the below analysis. The number in parentheses indicates the round in which a player was drafted.

I’ve moved the draft class over to the pro side of The Board so you can see where each org’s new players fall within the system; I have also made some low-hanging fruit changes to the pro lists, including the Top 100. I’ll have more details on the pro changes early next week, but for now you can look at who has a “trend” arrow to see where I’ve made tweaks. Also remember that the Farm System rankings update live, and that this draft class is now factoring into those. There are some players taken late on Day Three (Brady Neal, Andrew Walters, etc.) who I don’t think will sign. Who I anticipate will sign is at my discretion (I’m basically assuming everyone through round 11 will); if I’m wrong on deadline day, I’ll remove or add the player(s) who end up surprising us. Now on to my notes. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted over on The Board.

Arizona got the consensus best player in the draft in Druw Jones, and he stands a chance to help alter the course of their franchise. Folks in the game think drive and determination is a separator when it comes to successfully rehabbing from Tommy John, and if his on-mound presence is any indication, Comp Pick bulldog righty Landon Sims seems to have that. Ivan Melendez has among the most raw power in this draft and was the most outstanding player in college baseball in 2022 after making adjustments that led to fewer strikeouts.

Atlanta had a remarkable first day, taking three high school pitchers and a late-season pop-up college arm. Owen Murphy and JR Ritchie both have prototypical prep pitching profiles as projectable righties with vertically-oriented fastball/breaking ball combinations. Phillips had a huge velo boost this spring, into the upper-90s, then blew out. The Braves will need to polish his secondaries after his TJ rehab. Burkhalter’s stuff was incredible during the College World Series, another “tip-of-the-iceberg” prospect for the Braves. He could end up with three above-average pitches. Part of why he fell is because his delivery features a lot of effort that points to the bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is a mock draft compiled using a combination of industry rumors, deductive reasoning, and pattern recognition of teams’ past behavior. I go down to pick 40 so that I get to touch on every team at least once, but there is only verbiage explaining why I’ve mocked a player to a team for the first round. If you’d like to learn more about the players mentioned here, head over to The Board for rankings and scouting reports. I’ll be chatting live during the draft this evening at 4 PT/7 ET. In the event that I learn pertinent info in the middle of the day, I’ll have a mock of just names up shortly before the draft. Read the rest of this entry »

All 30 Top Prospect lists are now in the books. They spanned roughly 260,000 words of analysis and opinion regarding roughly 1,500 prospects and the systems they occupy, plus the tool grade components on The Board. Thanks to Kevin Goldstein, Brendan Gawlowski, and Tess Taruskin for their help, to Sean Dolinar for building the tools that allow me to produce these lists with such detail by removing a huge part of the technological burden, and to managing enabler editor Meg Rowley, who edited every word of every list and with whom I’m lucky to share enough pathological traits to make this all possible.

Every word of those write-ups is cemented on The Board’s 2022 Report section, which is now set in stone on the site for future reference. As players are traded and drafted over the next few weeks, or if their Future Value grade changes throughout the rest of the season, those alterations will be found in the 2022 Updated option on the dropdown menu. Players who graduate (i.e. lose rookie eligibility within this season) will move from the 2022 Updated page to the 2022 Graduates page, which already includes the players who have played enough this season to move off the prospect end of things. This is accessible through the Seasonal tab on The Board, though the default for the Seasonal tab at the moment takes you to the Futures Game rosters, so until next week you’ll have to use the dropdown to access the graduates. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Mets. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »