Let’s start this article with a bold claim: Wander Franco’s first two seasons in the majors were a disappointment. That’s a startling assertion, even if it might not seem that way at first. Franco hit .282/.337/.439, good for a 121 wRC+, while playing league average defense at shortstop; he was 20 years old for the first of those seasons. He played at a 4.3 WAR per 600 PA clip, which the FanGraphs glossary helpfully notes is an All-Star level. That’s all true. For the best prospect of the past decade, though, it still feels like a letdown.

The real thing that has betrayed Franco is playing time. First for nebulous service time reasons, then due to injury, his first two seasons in the majors were both as brief as they were scintillating. He appeared in 70 games in 2021 and 83 in 2022. His counting stats weren’t exactly imposing: 13 homers, 10 steals, and a mere 72 RBI if you’re playing fantasy baseball. I acknowledge that considering that performance a disappointment is grading on a curve, but when you’re as good and hyped as Franco is, that comes with the territory.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, it’s time for the good news: that perception is as stale as the sourdough I bought last Wednesday and didn’t finish (hey, there’s a good bagel shop nearby, and I’m only human). Franco isn’t a young up-and-comer this year. He’s a bona fide star, one of the best hitters in baseball so far and the best player on the best team. It’s only a matter of time before your marginally-baseball-following friends start asking you if you’ve heard about this Wander guy. So allow me to present a gift to you as a baseball fan who wants to sound smart to their friends, a guide to why Franco is one of the best players in baseball and what he changed to get there. Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday afternoon, a friend of mine was straight up not having a good time watching his favorite baseball team. The Phillies, defending NL champions and consensus favorites to return to the playoffs this year, were losing to the Rockies. They’d already done that once this weekend and are heading into the last week of April under .500. So he came up with an interesting theory: With so many players leaving Phillies camp to play in the World Baseball Classic, perhaps the interruption in spring training had a deleterious effect on the team’s preparation and/or chemistry.

Then he asked me if I knew of anyone who’d studied the issue. I said no and almost let the matter drop right there. Looking at the statistical leaderboards, playing in the WBC didn’t throw Shohei Ohtani off his schwerve. (Or Ronald Acuña Jr., or Randy Arozarena, or Xander Bogaerts)

Most of all, there are more direct explanations for the Phillies’ slow start: Bryce Harper is hurt, they’re down to something like their fourth-string first baseman, and there’s a specific Phillies fan who’s done something to anger the baseball gods and call down their wrath. His name is Nick, he lives in Christiana, Delaware, and the baseball gods will not relent until he is found and sacrificed upon a stone altar. Hurry, there’s no time to lose. Read the rest of this entry »

Mark Gubicza was a good starting pitcher. Making all but two of his 384 big-league appearances with the Kansas City Royals, the big right-hander logged 132 wins to go with a 3.96 ERA, 42 complete games, and 16 shutouts. His best season came in 1988 when he went 20-8 with a 2.70 ERA and finished third in A.L. Cy Young balloting.

Gubicza also had two saves, both of them in 1993. That was the year he gained a true appreciation for how challenging it is to protect a late-inning lead for a teammate. How he came work out of the bullpen — something he did sparingly outside of that one season — was a matter of circumstance.

“We didn’t have a bridge to get from our starters to Jeff Montgomery,” explained Gubicza, who now serves as a TV analyst for the Angels. “The year before, my shoulder was a little sketchy, so [manager] Hal McRae asked me if I could be the bridge. At first I was hesitant, because I liked starting. But I was building back my arm strength, so I said, ‘You know what? I’ll do whatever it takes to win games. I’ll be that bridge to get to Jeff Montgomery.”

The transition was initially bumpy. Gubicza’s heart would start racing when the bullpen phone rang, and once he began warming, he would be throwing as hard as he could. Moreover, while adrenaline was telling him that he was ready, his stuff wasn’t ready. Much for those reasons, he took his lumps before figuring out what worked for him in the unfamiliar role. Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday, the Oakland Athletics revealed that they’ve taken a concrete step toward building a ballpark in Las Vegas. Well, not “concrete” in the literal sense, but the A’s have “signed a binding agreement to purchase” a place to put concrete, a 49-acre plot near Allegiant Stadium (home of the NFL’s Raiders) and the Las Vegas Strip. Pending approval of a “public-private partnership,” A’s president Dave Kaval told the San Francisco Chronicle, a stadium could be completed in time for Opening Day 2027.

There are still plenty of components to be juggled, but this is the biggest indication yet that the years-long effort to find a new home for the A’s in California is doomed to fail. Should the A’s relocate, they’ll become the first team to do so since the Montreal Expos moved to Washington in 2005, and the first team in the AL-NL era to move three times. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Atlanta Braves. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a force of nature. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball, and in a very obvious way: he scalds the baseball to all fields and hits a bunch of home runs. Last year was a down year, and he still left the yard 32 times. He perennially records some of the hardest-hit batted balls in the game. When you think about a prototypical first baseman, Guerrero’s combination of power and hit tool is probably what you’re picturing.

One of the impressive parts of Guerrero’s career has been his ability to limit strikeouts while still getting to his power. See, low strikeout rates aren’t an inherently great thing. If you don’t strike out very often but don’t do any damage when you put the ball in play, you’re not really making a good trade. Adam Frazier is a good example of this type of hitter. He struck out just 12.1% of the time last year, but posted an 81 wRC+ anyway because when he did make contact, it was generally weak. You can probably conjure a picture of this type of hitter on your favorite team. You love that they never give away an at-bat, but hate that they never take matters into their own hands and park one in the seats or smack one off the power alley wall.

Guerrero doesn’t suffer from that problem. He struck out just 16.4% of the time in 2022, but when he made contact, he wasn’t Fraziering it up out there. Let’s get that in numbers: in his career, Frazier is batting .317 with a .456 slugging percentage when he ends a plate appearance with a batted ball, good for a .327 wOBA. Guerrero is hitting .351 with a .616 slugging percentage, which works out to a .403 wOBA. One of these things is not like the other. That’s why low strikeout rates are great statistical markers for power hitters and yet broadly uninteresting in the population as a whole. What you do with those extra balls in play matters a ton, as Michael Baumann covered yesterday, and with far more Pitbull references than I could even think up. Read the rest of this entry »

For the purposes of researching this article, I went through Baseball Savant and watched several of Luis Arraez’s hits from the 2023 season. You can tell what kind of a heater he’s on by how the broadcast booth reacts when he gets a hit. Marlins play-by-play man Paul Severino, declaring that Arraez was in the midst of yet another multi-hit game, would chuckle as the ball touched outfield grass. On one occasion, Phillies announcer John Kruk muttered, “Jesus!” as Arraez dropped a triple down the right field line.

Arraez is so hot it’s entered the realm of the absurd. Through 15 games, he’s 24-for-51, mostly on singles that army crawl past bewildered infielders or fall softly in front of outfielders. As of Monday afternoon, he has yet to hit a ball with an exit velocity of 100 mph or greater. Ryan Mountcastle, who’s hitting .217 to Arraez’s .471, has 25 such batted balls.

The obvious thing to do in this situation would be to point out all the ways Arraez is getting lucky. He’s a fringy runner with a ninth-percentile (ninth-percentile!) hard-hit rate and a BABIP of .500, and so on and so forth. And ordinarily, I am the kind of relentless downer who goes around ruining other people’s good time. (Hope you enjoyed those wonderful shrimp tacos you had for lunch; the sea is full of microplastics and you’re going to die someday.) But I’m declaring Arraez’s hot start to be a negativity-free zone.

So let’s get to it. Is Arraez some kind of a wizard, or is he just getting lucky? The answer is yes. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 season is underway and we’ve already seen some history made. With a little over two weeks worth of regular season data, it’s time to start assessing how teams have played to begin this year. It’s way too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but there are some surprises among the best teams, some teams that have shown real improvements so far, and a few others that have fallen flat despite lofty expectations.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays won their first 13 games of the season, tying the modern era major league record. You can talk all you want about the quality of their opening schedule — they steamrolled over the Tigers, Nationals, A’s, and Red Sox, with three of those four series at home — but it’s still really hard to string together that many wins in a row. Of course, their win streak came to an end as soon as they ran into a tougher opponent, losing two of three to the Blue Jays over the weekend. Still, those 13 wins are in the bank and they give Tampa Bay a huge advantage in the extremely competitive AL East. Unfortunately, they’ve already started to suffer some injury attrition — Jeffrey Springs and Zach Eflin have hit the IL, with the former expected to miss multiple months with an elbow injury.

The Brewers entered the season with a roster in flux. Christian Yelich and Willy Adames remained as anchors in the lineup, but they added three new regulars and were planning on running out two rookies to start the season in Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang. So far, their bet on the newcomers and youth has worked out. Mitchell has mashed the ball despite still struggling with strikeout issues and Turang has been solid at the plate while providing elite defense at second base. A shoulder injury has sidelined Brandon Woodruff for an extended period but Freddy Peralta looks healthy and is pitching extremely well, helping to cover for that hole in the rotation.

The Braves won all six of their games last week, sweeping the Reds and the Royals. That streak has helped them get back on the right track after losing three of four to the Padres last weekend. Ronald Acuña Jr. is crushing the ball again, and Matt Olson and Sean Murphy are keeping the offense rolling. Atlanta is getting Max Fried back from his early season injury today and recently recalled Vaughn Grissom to cover for injured starting shortstop Orlando Arcia; Grissom has already collected hits in all three games he’s played in the big leagues this year.

The Cubs’ veteran reclamation project seems to be paying off so far. Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, and Eric Hosmer are all contributing on offense, though they’re not necessarily playing up to their previous standards. The team just extended Ian Happ and activated Seiya Suzuki from the IL over the weekend. But the real reason they’ve looked so good early this season is a better-than-expected pitching staff. Their rotation has been solid despite some early season hiccups from Hayden Wesneski, and their bullpen is a lot deeper than it looked on paper.

The Blue Jays managed to take down the undefeated Rays over the weekend, winning two of three. Matt Chapman has been leading the offense, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette playing important supporting roles. The Blue Jays’ problem has been a pitching staff that has looked pretty shaky during the first few turns through the rotation. Thankfully, four-fifths of their starters turned in excellent starts last week, though Alek Manoah was torched for seven runs by the Rays on Sunday. He’s carrying a 6.98 ERA and a 7.04 FIP through four starts, and those struggles are beginning to become a real concern.

The Mariners clawed their way back to .500 after struggling through the first few weeks of the season. The man currently steering the ship? None other than Jarred Kelenic, who looks to be finally delivering on all that promise he had as a top prospect. He’s currently in the midst of a 10-game hit streak, blasted four home runs in consecutive games last week, and is now running a 220 wRC+ in 52 plate appearances. And while he’s unlikely to sustain that level of production, it’s a very encouraging sign for the M’s, who were counting on a breakout season from their young outfielder.

The Orioles have gotten off to a strong start behind their young and athletic lineup. They’re running all over the opposition behind strong showings from Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle. Uber-prospect Gunnar Henderson has been slow to get his rookie campaign off the ground, but he is walking in nearly a quarter of his at-bats. With that kind of plate discipline, the hits will eventually follow. Baltimore finally called up Grayson Rodriguez, too. He’s gotten off to a decent start to his big league career, with his eight strikeouts against the White Sox yesterday a highlight.

The first base position in Philadelphia must be cursed. After losing Rhys Hoskins for the season during spring training, his replacement Darick Hall tore a ligament in his right thumb, sidelining him for months. Now, the Phillies are preparing Bryce Harper to play first to expedite his return from Tommy John surgery. If they value his health, they might be better off sticking with their original plan to keep him at designated hitter for the entire season. Beyond the thinning of their lineup, the Phillies are also working to overcome a disastrous start to the season from their bullpen. The exception is José Alvarado, who has already collected 16 strikeouts in just 6.1 innings pitched.

Except for maybe the Cubs, no team has outperformed their preseason expectations more than the Pirates. They just completed an extremely hard fought split with the Cardinals over the weekend, Bryan Reynolds is leading the offense, and Andrew McCutchen looks revitalized in Pittsburgh yellow and black. Unfortunately, their exciting young shortstop Oneil Cruz broke his ankle on a play at the plate last week and will be out of action until late in the summer at the earliest. That definitely puts a damper on their early success.

It’s certainly surprising to see the Padres this low in the rankings after coming into the season as one of the favorites in the National League. After winning three of four in Atlanta last weekend, they struggled against the Mets and Brewers, losing five of seven. They’ll get both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove back this week, which should give their offense and rotation a much needed boost.

No team has outperformed their expected win-loss record more than the Marlins so far. They aren’t doing it with clutch hitting or a lockdown bullpen. They’re simply winning all of the close games they’re playing and getting blown out when they lose. That skews their run differential, but the wins they’ve secured are in the bank. Yesterday was just the second time this season Luis Arraez has been held hitless, finally dropping his batting average below .500. Their starting rotation has been as good as advertised, with Jesús Luzardo looking like he’s finally putting everything together.

Speaking of pitchers putting things together, there’s something happening in Kansas City. With a new development group brought on board by new general manager J.J. Picollo, the Royals pitching staff has rarely looked better. Before going down with a strained flexor in his throwing elbow over the weekend, Kris Bubic put together a handful of promising starts. Brad Keller has a revamped repertoire as well; he’s also gotten off to a strong start. Aroldis Chapman is throwing harder than he has in years. Unfortunately, their offense has been dismal to start the season, and they were just swept by the Braves at home over the weekend to drop them to 4-12.

The A’s have already allowed a whopping 125 runs this year. The major league record for runs allowed in a 162-game season is 1,103 by the 1996 Tigers; at this rate, Oakland is going to shatter that record. They made history on Friday, allowing 17 walks to the Mets, which led to two separate innings with six or more runs allowed on just a single hit. That’s the wrong kind of history they want to be making in Oakland.

…

On Friday, the Giants announced a five-year, $90 million contract extension with star right-hander Logan Webb. The 26-year-old Webb came to national attention during the 2021 NLCS, in which he allowed a single run across two starts against the Dodgers, striking out 17 and walking one over 14 2/3 innings. Across 2021 and 2022, Webb was 12th in baseball in pitcher WAR, one spot behind Gerrit Cole, and 20th in ERA among pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched, one spot ahead of Shane Bieber.

Webb was due to reach free agency after the 2025 season. This contract will buy out his two remaining arbitration years for a total of $20 million, then pay him $23 million, $23 million, and $24 million from 2026 to 2028. It’s a deal indicative of Webb’s special status in the Giants’ organization, and it could nonetheless be an enormous bargain for the team. Read the rest of this entry »

Billy Wagner was the club’s closer when Craig Kimbrel joined the Atlanta Braves in 2010. Thirty-nine years old by season’s end, Wagner logged the last 37 of his 422 career saves, and he was as dominant as ever while doing so. Over 69-and-a-third innings, the left-hander fanned 104 batters while allowing just 38 hits.

Kimbrel, who was just 21 years old when he debuted that May, was every bit as overpowering. In 21 appearances comprising 20-and-two-thirds innings, the rookie right-hander fanned 40 batters while allowing just nine hits. Along the way, he recorded the first of what is now 395 saves.

I’ve had a Hall of Fame vote for three years, and in each of them I’ve put a checkmark next to Wagner’s name. This coming winter, I plan to do so again in what will be his penultimate year on the ballot (assuming he doesn’t get voted in; Wagner received 68% of support in his last go-round).

Kimbrel will soon celebrate his 35th birthday, and while the end of his career is fast approaching, he’s still pitching. Will he likewise be getting my vote once his name appears on the ballot? And what about Kenley Jansen? Still going strong at age 35, he’s also got 395 saves, tying him with Kimbrel for seventh on the all-time list, directly behind Wagner.

Let’s compare some of their numbers:

Wagner: 422 saves, WPA 28.40, 187 ERA+, 2.73 FIP, 6.0 H/9, 11.9 K/9.
Kimbrel: 395 saves, WPA 22.99, 174 ERA+, 2.38 FIP, 5.2 H/9, 14.3 K/9.
Jansen: 395 saves, WPA 24.72, 161 ERA+, 2.44 FIP, 5.8 H/9. 13.0 K/9. Read the rest of this entry »