John Schreiber has been a find for the Red Sox. Claimed off waivers by Boston from the Detroit Tigers prior to last season, the 28-year-old sidewinder has come out of the bullpen 30 times this year and allowed just 12 hits and two earned runs over 29 innings. Schreiber has 35 strikeouts to go with three saves and a pair of wins in as many decisions.

He’s not the same pitcher who failed to distinguish himself in Detroit.

“I’d mainly been a four-seam/slider guy,” explained Schreiber, who logged a 6.28 ERA over parts of two seasons with the Tigers. “In college and for most of my pro-ball career, that’s all I threw. Two years ago I started working on a better changeup, and last year I started throwing my sinker. Paul Abbott is our Triple-A pitching coach, and he helped me work on a two-seam sinker. I’ve gotten really comfortable throwing that.”

Schreiber still features his old mix prominently — this year he’s thrown 35.3% four-seamers and 35.8% sliders — but his 22.5% sinker usage has added a whole new twist. The 2016, 15th-round draft pick out of the University of Northwestern Ohio is now far less predictable, and just as importantly, he’s better able to match up with hitters who do damage on high heaters. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Houston Astros. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

As we reach the mathematical halfway point of the season and approach the trade deadline, this is an opportune moment to run an update of the ZiPS projected standings. The standings are based on projections from the most robust version of ZiPS rather than the simpler one, which is more practical to run daily during the regular season, implementing things like the Statcast-aided zStats and up-to-date minor league translations.

The process that ZiPS uses is the typical one, but I’ll run it down quickly for those who may be new to how these projections work. ZiPS starts with a modified version of our depth chart and applies a generalized probabilistic model of available playing time for the players listed. So instead of a team’s roster strength being a simple sum of everyone’s projected WAR pro-rated to a fixed expected number of plate appearances, we end up with a whole distribution of possible roster strength. As an example: While Jacob deGrom still has a median of 55 innings in the roster sims I run for each team, sometimes he’ll be at 65 or 70 innings, sometimes he’ll be at 30 or 45 innings, and occasionally, it’ll be much worse than that. ZiPS will then “fill in” playing time based on the next players available on the depth chart and their probabilistic measure of availability. Just to stay with the Mets: When the outfield is healthy, the depth chart is mostly Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte. But on the particularly bad rolls, the team’s estimated roster strength will have a lot more Ender Inciarte, Nick Plummer, Mark Vientos, and even players like Daniel Palka and Terrance Gore.

After ZiPS gets a distribution of each team’s roster strength, it “draws” one each year and sims out the rest of the season, team versus team, a million times and sees what happens. Is this a perfect methodology? Absolutely not! But I think we get closer to our goal of trying to evaluate team uncertainty and team depth, something which is harder to do using a less time-consuming scheme.

We checked the American League yesterday, so now it’s the Senior Circuit’s term. Read the rest of this entry »

The New York Mets acquired Edwin Díaz in a trade with the Seattle Mariners before the 2019 season. At the time, the deal was controversial, to put it charitably. Díaz was coming off a breakout 2018 season, one that established him as the best young reliever in baseball. He struck out 44.3% of his opponents en route to a 1.96 ERA (1.61 FIP, 1.78 xFIP) and had four years of team control remaining.

That combination of skill and value doesn’t come around often, and the Mets paid dearly for it. They took Robinson Canó and his contract along with Díaz, and sent multiple prospects back in the bargain, headlined by Jarred Kelenic, their previous year’s first round draft pick and a consensus future star. Things went quite poorly for New York out of the gate; Kelenic flew through the minors, Díaz posted a 5.59 ERA in his first season with the Mets, and Canó had his worst season since 2008.

You probably already knew all of that. It wasn’t exactly a small story at the time, and when Kelenic debuted at the start of the 2021 season while Canó was serving a suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy, the “Mets snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” headlines reached a fever pitch. But with the benefit of 15 more months of games, and also as someone who isn’t particularly good at hot takes, allow me to add this to the discourse: Edwin Díaz is really good. Read the rest of this entry »

As we reach the mathematical halfway point of the season and approach the trade deadline, this is an opportune moment to run an update of the ZiPS projected standings. The standings are based on projections from the most robust version of ZiPS rather than the simpler one, which is more practical to run daily during the regular season, implementing things like the Statcast-aided zStats and up-to-date minor league translations.

The process that ZiPS uses is the typical one, but I’ll run it down quickly for those who may be new to how these projections work. ZiPS starts with a modified version of our depth chart and applies a generalized probabilistic model of available playing time for the players listed. So instead of a team’s roster strength being a simple sum of everyone’s projected WAR pro-rated to a fixed expected number of plate appearances, we end up with a whole distribution of possible roster strength. As an example: While Jacob deGrom still has a median of 55 innings in the roster sims I run for each team, sometimes he’ll be at 65 or 70 innings, sometimes he’ll be at 30 or 45 innings, and occasionally, it’ll be much worse than that. ZiPS will then “fill in” playing time based on the next players available on the depth chart and their probabilistic measure of availability. Just to stay with the Mets: When the outfield is healthy, the depth chart is mostly Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte. But on the particularly bad rolls, the team’s estimated roster strength will have a lot more Ender Inciarte, Nick Plummer, Mark Vientos, and even players like Daniel Palka and Terrance Gore.

After ZiPS gets a distribution of each team’s roster strength, it “draws” one each year and sims out the rest of the season, team versus team, a million times and sees what happens. Is this a perfect methodology? Absolutely not! But I think we get closer to our goal of trying to evaluate team uncertainty and team depth, something which is harder to do using a less time-consuming scheme.

For today, let’s check in on the American League. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a question that gets asked all the time on baseball social media. The variations are endless, but essentially, it boils down to this: Would you rather have an ultra-consistent hitter in Player X, who you can count on for a daily hit, or an uneven hitter in Player Y, who oscillates between prime Barry Bonds and a benchwarmer?

Given specific numbers, you could work out whether Player X or Y is more valuable. But what if we assume they’re players of equal caliber? That’s where it gets tricky. Maybe I’m only seeing certain answers, but in such cases, it seems like people prefer the clockwork Player X. It makes sense: The prospect of guaranteed production is reassuring, as befits our risk-averse tendencies. I have a hunch that we generally overvalue consistency in baseball, but I’m not here to prove that. Instead, I wanted to find out which hitters have been steady at the plate this season, and which hitters have been mercurial.

Over on our Splits Leaderboards, you can break down hitters’ seasons into weekly chunks. They range from Isaac Paredes’ destruction of the league in mid-June (488 wRC+) to Travis Demeritte’s hit-less and walk-less stretch a month prior (-100 wRC+). From there, measuring the variance between those weeks is a fairly simple endeavor. I grouped the weeks by each player, then calculated the standard deviation in wRC+, which represents how spread apart a player’s weeks are from his overall production. The higher the standard deviation, the more variable he is; the lower the standard deviation, the more consistent. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Washington Nationals. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Kyle Garlick was a long shot to make the big leagues when he was first featured here at FanGraphs in 2016. A 28th-round senior-sign by the Los Angeles Dodgers the previous summer, Garlick was 24 years old, unranked, and very much under the radar. Moreover, he was heading into an offseason where he’d be working two jobs to help make ends meet. As Garlick explained at the time, he was going to be working half days on a construction crew, and bar-backing at a restaurant on weekends.

Six years later, he is a valuable role player on a contending team. In 81 plate appearances with the Minnesota Twins, the right-handed-hitting outfielder is slashing .274/.333/.534 with six home runs and a 145 wRC+.

There have been a lot of ups and downs along the way. Since debuting with the Dodgers in 2019, Garlick has been traded once, claimed off of waivers twice, and spent multiple stints on the injured list and in Triple-A. That his MLB resume consists of 111 games over parts of four seasons qualifies as an accomplishment.

Earlier this season, I asked Garlick about his expectations at the time of our 2016 conversation. Did he truly see himself reaching the big leagues?

“Personally, I was very sure,” responded Garlick. “I don’t know that others were. But even though I had faith in myself, I had backup plans. When I went back to Triple-A in 2019. my thought was that if I didn’t get called up that year, I would give myself 2020. If I didn’t get called up then, I was probably going to hang it up. Luckily that didn’t happen. I got called up [in 2019] and that changed my life. I’ve been able to make myself a little career out of baseball.”

Garlick earned a degree in General Social Science from the University of Oregon, but his backup plan had no connection to his studies. He was going to become a firefighter.

“I had a few buddies doing that, and they loved it,” explained Garlick. “It’s kind of a clubhouse vibe, and I’d have been doing things like saving lives. I couldn’t see myself in a desk job, sitting behind a screen, and that’s something that appealed to me.”

Not so much anymore. Garlick celebrated his 30th birthday this past winter, and while he can still square up high heaters, fighting flames is another story

“I’m getting older,” Garlick reasoned. “I don’t know how many guys start firefighting when they’re my age, but it’s probably not too many. So, I’m not sure what comes next. I kind of put all of my eggs in one basket for baseball when I chose a college major. Maybe I’ll stay in the game in some capacity. I’ll figure that out when the time comes.”

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Tom Prince went 3 for 5 against Jeremy Affeldt.

Jeff King went 5 for 8 against Rick Aguilera.

Dave Kingman went 6 for 9 against Matt Young.

Jimmy Outlaw went 6 for 9 against Mel Queen Sr.

Roberto Clemente went 6 for 12 against Mel Queen Jr.

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Dan Dickerson wasn’t one of the contributors to Broadcaster’s View: What is the Best Pitching Performance You’ve Seen? when the piece ran here at FanGraphs on June 2nd. Better late than never, the radio play-by-play voice of the Detroit Tigers shared the following when I caught up to him at Fenway Park a few weeks ago.

“My No. 1 would be Kenny Rogers against the Yankees, Game Three of the 2006 ALDS,” Dickerson told me, adding that the southpaw’s career ERA against the Bronx Bombers was well north of six. “That lineup was loaded. As Jim Leyland called it, it was ‘Murderer’s Row, and then Cano.’ Robinson Canó was hitting ninth.

“He went out there and channeled young Kenny Rogers, at 41 years old,” continued Dickerson. “I don’t know what the radar gun said — I’m not even sure there was a radar gun — but he was reaching back and firing fastballs. And he was so animated. He was feeding off the crowd and vice versa. When he left the mound, that place just erupted. I think he went seven-and-two-thirds, but whatever it was, he was incredible.”

Dickerson’s second and third choices were by the same pitcher.

“I’ve seen Justin Verlander’s no-hitters, but his back-to-back Game Fives in Oakland — almost exactly one year apart to the day — are the ones that stand out the most,” said Dickerson. “Two years in a row, the Tigers had to play a deciding Game Five in Oakland, and those crowds were the loudest I’ve heard in the postseason. That place was crazy. It was like a Raiders game.

“[Verlander’s] combined line for the two games was 17 innings, no runs, six hits, two walks, and 21 strikeouts. I mean, who do you want on the mound in a big game? The answer is Justin Verlander. Deciding games, and it was, ‘This is what I want, and this is what I’m going to do.’ Phenomenal.”

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A quiz:

Dave Righetti completed his July 4, 1983 no-hitter by striking out that season’s American League batting champion. Who did the New York Yankees southpaw fan for the final out?

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

SABR has added a Baseball Broadcasting panel to its annual convention, which will be held in Baltimore from August 17-21. Kevin Brown, the TV play-by-play voice of the Orioles, and Joe Castiglione, the radio play-by-play voice of the Red Sox, will be the featured panelists.

Joe Staton, a first baseman for the Detroit Tigers for parts of the 1972 and 1973 seasons, died earlier this month at age 74. A Seattle native who went a combined 4 for 19 in his two cups of coffee, Staton had an RBI single in his final MLB plate appearance, then retired from baseball at age 25.

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The answer to the quiz is Boston’s Wade Boggs, who went on to finish the season with a .361 average and just 36 strikeouts in 685 plate appearances. Righetti fanned the Hall of Famer twice while pitching his July 4 gem.

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Tyler Mahle was refreshingly honest when I asked him about his curveball prior to the 2020 season. Shortly before spring-training camps were shut down due to the emerging pandemic, the Cincinnati Reds right-hander told me that not only was the pitch a work-in-progress, “Technically, [he hadn’t] thrown a really good curveball yet.”

He had thrown some bad ones. In 2019, Mahle’s curveball usage was 23.1%, and his 3-12 won-lost record was accompanied by a 5.14 ERA. Aware that the pitch had been getting squared up all too often, he was hoping to remake it into an actual asset. Instead, he ended up scrapping it entirely. Mahre hasn’t thrown a curveball since our 27-months-ago conversation.

When I asked Mahle about that at the beginning of this month, he said the decision was based more on the quality of his slider than it was on the inability to develop a reliable hook. He also pointed to the continued improvement of his splitter, which he learned in 2018 after being sent back down to Triple-A. Taught to him by then-Louisville Bats pitching coach Jeff Fassero, it proved a panacea to his longtime struggles to effectively throw a conventional changeup.

Mahle has thrown his splitter 25.4% of the time this year while going 3-6 with a 4.53 and a 3.38 FIP. Last season he went 13-6 with a 3.75 and a 3.80 FIP.

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Shogo Akiyama is returning to NPB, having reportedly agreed to a three-year deal with the Hiroshima Carp. The 34-year-old outfielder played for the Seibu Lions from 2011-2019 before spending the 2020 and 2021 campaigns with the Cincinnati Reds. Akiyama was with San Diego’s Triple-A affiliate earlier this season.

Kensuke Kondoh has been activated from the injured list by the Nippon-Ham Fighters. The 28-year-old, lft-handed-hitting outfielder has a .307/.410/.430 slash line over 11 NPB seasons.

Enny Romero is 6-4 with a 2.00 ERA over 72 innings for NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines. The 31-year-old former MLB left-hander has been pitching in Japan since 2019.

Per MassLive’s Katie Morrison, Thomas Pannone has been granted his release by the Red Sox and will be taking his talents to the KBO. The 28-year-old former Toronto Blue Jays southpaw signed with Boston in March and has been pitching for Triple-A Worcester.

Yefry Ramírez allowed four runs over two-and-a-third innings in his first appearance with the Hanwha Eagles. The 28-year-old former big-league right-hander signed with the KBO club earlier this month.

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Brayan Peña manages the West Michigan Whitecaps. He’s also a diehard fan of Real Madrid. In his second season at the helm of Detroit’s High-A affiliate, Peña has been supporting the legendary Spanish soccer club for most of his 40 years.

“When I grew up in Havana, Cuba, there were only two teams that you would root for, and that was Barcelona or Real Madrid,” Peña said of his fútbol allegiance. “My family loved Real Madrid. They loved the uniforms, everything. Mentally, we would picture Madrid — such a beautiful place — and I knew that I wanted to visit one day.”

That dream came true after Peña retired from a big-league playing career that spanned the 2005-2016 seasons. Traveling to Spain, he was able to purchase not only the Real Madrid jersey that hangs in his office, but also
tickets for a match at 81,000-seat Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.

“We had a chance to see Cristiano Ronaldo play, too” Peña said of the Portuguese superstar. “It was beautiful, man. It was one of my dreams, and it came true. God allowed me to be in that position with my wife and my kids. It was awesome.”

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FARM NOTES

Jared Shuster has a 3.27 ERA over 14 starts comprising 71-and-two-thirds innings for the Double-A Mississippi Braves. The 23-year-old left-hander — No. 4 on our Atlanta Braves Top Prospects list — has allowed 57 hits, issued 19 walks, and logged 82 strikeouts.

Cole Ragans has a 2.50 ERA over 13 starts comprising 68-and-third innings between Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock. The 24-year-old left-hander — No. 20 on our Texas Rangers Top Prospects list — has allowed 54 hits, issued 22 walks, and logged 84 strikeouts.

Drew Parrish has a 3.13 ERA over 14 starts comprising 74-and-two-thirds innings between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha. The 24-year-old left-hander — No. 17 on our Kansas City Royals Top Prospects list — has allowed 51 hits, issued 23 walks, and logged 60 strikeouts.

Emerson Hancock has a 3.03 ERA over eight starts comprising 29-and-two-thirds innings for the Double-A Arkansas Travelers. No. 6 on our Seattle Mariners Top Prospects list, the 23-year-old right-hander discussed his repertoire and early-career development here at FanGraphs last summer.

Peyton Battenfield has a 3.08 ERA over 16 starts comprising 90-and-two-thirds innings for the Triple-A Columbus Clippers. No. 25 on our Cleveland Guardians Top Prospects list, the 24-year-old right-hander was featured here at FanGraphs last August, a month after being traded to Cleveland by the Tampa Bay Rays.

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

At Crawfish Boxes, Cody Poage wrote about Houston Astros reliever Enoli Paredes, for whom control is the key.

Purple Row’s Renee Dechert feels that Colorado Rockies fans deserve better, and she has opinions on how to make that happen.

Pitching coach Wes Johnson unexpectedly left the Minnesota Twins to assume that same role at Louisiana State University. Dan Hayes has the story at The Athletic (subscription required).

The Senate Judiciary Committee is questioning the legality of MLB’s antitrust exemption, and Joon Lee wrote about it for ESPN.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Manny Machado, who turns 30 years old on July 6, has a .282 batting average, 1,510 hits, and 263 home runs. Ron Santo had a .281 batting average, 1,592 hits, and 253 home runs prior to turning 30.

The first year the Boston Red Sox hit more home runs than triples as a team was 1931. Last year the Red Sox hit 219 home runs and 23 triples. (Hat tip to historian Bill Nowlin for the fact.)

Thirty-two people born in the state of New Hampshire have pitched in at least one big-league game. Of them, Sam Fuld is the only one with a career ERA of 0.00. The erstwhile outfielder — now the general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies — faced one batter in 2013 while playing for the Tampa Bay Rays. Fuld retired JB Shuck on a fly ball.

In 1938, Philadelphia Athletics outfielder “Indian Bob” Johnson had 114 runs scored, 113 RBIs, and a .552 slugging percentage. In 1939, Johnson had 115 runs scored, 114 RBIs, and a .553 slugging percentage,

Chick Stahl had 72 walks and just 10 strikeouts when he slashed .351/.426/.493 for the National League’s Boston Beaneaters in 1899. Stahl was a 34-year-old player-manager for the Boston Americans when he died after drinking poison in 1907.

On today’s date in 1912, the New York Giants won their 15th and 16th games in a row by sweeping a double-header from the Brooklyn Dodgers. The John McGraw-managed club ran their record to 54-11 on the way to a 103-48-3 season.

On today’s date in 1966, Atlanta Braves pitcher Tony Cloninger helped his own cause with a pair of grand slams in a complete-game 17-3 win over the San Francisco Giants. The right-hander went 3 for 5 with nine RBIs on the day, while Hank Aaron, Rico Carty, and Joe Torre homered in support.

Luis Tiant had 19 strikeouts while tossing a 10-inning, 1-0 shutout over the Minnesota Twins on today’s date in 1968. The Cleveland righty finished the season 21-9 with a 1.60 ERA and nine shutouts.

Players born on today’s date include Bunny Brief, whose 256 home runs are the all-time record in the now-defunct American Association. The Remus, Michigan native also went deep five times over parts of four big-league seasons, with the last of his blasts coming with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1917.

Eddie Rommel — born Edwin Americus Rommel, in Baltimore — became a longtime American League umpire following a playing career that saw him go 171-119 over 13 season with the Philadelphia A’s. Twice a 20-game winner, Rommel recorded the last of his wins on July 10, 1932, working 17 innings of relief in an 18-inning, 18-17 Philadelphia win over Cleveland.

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the St. Louis Cardinals. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been thinking a lot about two Yankees hitters recently. That’s less common than you’d think for me; out on the west coast, the TV isn’t overrun with Yankees highlights, and there are just so many baseball teams, so many interesting players to ponder. But I heard an announcer discussing one of my favorite baseball tropes, and it brought Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo to mind.

“Hard in, soft away” is a pitching adage, and one that makes plenty of sense. There’s a mechanical aspect to it, for one: to hit an inside pitch on the barrel, a hitter has to rotate more, which naturally takes more time. On the other hand, a slow pitch has the best odds of eluding a batter’s swing, or at least the most dangerous part of the bat, if the hitter swings too quickly; in a regular swing, the barrel gets to the outside part of the plate first (on a plane to hit the ball the other way) before rotating around to the inside of the plate (on a plane to pull).

I’m not a hitting mechanics expert, and that doesn’t describe the whole story. The batter could pull his hands in to try to get the bat head through the zone more quickly, or employ different swings for differently located (or angled) pitches, or any number of counters. But the default assumption – batters want to get the bat around on inside pitches, so pitchers should give them less time to do that, and vice versa – is at least a decent approximation of the physical reality in play. Read the rest of this entry »