There isn’t much missing from Freddie Freeman’s sterling career. He’s won an MVP, hit for the cycle, racked up 42 WAR, captured a pair of Silver Sluggers, and has already made five All-Star teams. That’s not quite enough for Cooperstown on its own, but he’s probably only a few more star caliber seasons away from a pretty good Hall of Fame case, and given that he’s only 32, he’s got time to pad his resume. With apologies to a criminally under-photographed snowmobile ride with Chipper Jones, the only thing missing from Freeman’s career has been an iconic moment.

No longer. In the eighth inning of a 4-4 tie in Tuesday’s NLDS Game 4, Freeman stepped to the plate against Josh Hader. Hader, of course, is the sport’s best relief pitcher and an absolute terror against lefties. He hadn’t given up a homer to a lefty all year, hadn’t surrendered a run since July, and hadn’t given the two previous hitters much of a chance to hit his nasty fastball/slider combo. On his first pitch to Freeman though, his bender caught too much plate and one chance was all that Freeman needed:

Milwaukee mustered a leadoff single in the ninth, but never got any closer to tying the game. Freeman’s late dinger ultimately clinched the series, and ensured the Braves wouldn’t rue a day that could have been defined by risky gambles and opportunities missed. Read the rest of this entry »

For the fifth consecutive year, the Astros are headed to the American League Championship Series to face an opponent from the AL East. With a 10–1 win over the White Sox in Tuesday’s ALDS Game 4, they eliminated the Central winners and clinched a date with the Red Sox, who knocked out the Rays on Monday. Up for grabs for Houston: the franchise’s third pennant and World Series trip in that span.

Over the first two innings of Game 4, it looked as if the White Sox were going to send the series back to Houston. Starter Carlos Rodón lit up the radar gun in the opening frame, touching as high as 99.4 mph with his fastball on his 10th pitch of the afternoon. Though he had a stellar regular season overall, he struggled with diminished velocity and shoulder soreness down the stretch; starting him seemed like a gamble for the Sox, especially considering the extra day of rest afforded to them by Monday’s rainout. Even Astros skipper Dusty Baker acknowledged that the lefty’s health would play a huge role, telling reporters that Game 4 “all depends on which Rodón we’re facing.” Read the rest of this entry »

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BOSTON — Unlike Sunday’s ALDS Game 3, this one wasn’t quite an instant classic. But it was nonetheless a drama-filled contest that culminated in a final swing of the bat that sent Fenway Park into a state of euphoria. When all was said and done, the Boston Red Sox had defeated the Tampa Bay Rays, thereby winning a hard-fought series in four games and advancing to the ALCS. The final score was 6-5.

Randy Arozarena led off the game by driving a 3-2 pitch from Eduardo Rodriguez up the gap in right center, the trajectory taking it close to the same spot where a pinball-carom caused controversy on Sunday night. This time, Hunter Renfroe made a clean catch, robbing the Tampa Bay outfielder of what looked like a sure double with a lunging, backhanded grab. More spectacular to the naked eye than the .500 expected batting average calculated by Statcast, the catch set the tone for the first two frames.

It was Tampa Bay’s defense that shone after Rodriquez recorded a one-two-three top half. Arozarena and Wander Franco made stellar plays in the bottom half, and Kevin Kiermaier did what Kevin Kiermaier does in the following inning, stealing a hit with a diving catch.

Rodriguez continued dealing. Coming off a Game 1 start in which he didn’t get out of the second inning, the 28-year-old southpaw fanned five over the first three frames with nary a Rays batter reaching. The last of those punch-outs, which came against Austin Meadows leading off the third, was notable for its longevity. A 17-pitch at-bat that featured eight consecutive foul balls after the count went full ended with Meadows waving at an 81.7-mph Rodriguez slider. The next two batters were retired on just three pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Freddy Peralta was cruising. He had thrown four shutout innings, allowing three hits (and only three batted balls over 100 mph), walking one and striking out five on just 57 pitches. Ian Anderson was arguably even better: five scoreless frames, three hits allowed, and six strikeouts. But with a chance to put something on the board in a scoreless game during a series where runs have been scarce, both managers pulled their starters, who both seemingly had plenty left in the tank, to take a shot at creating instant offense. It didn’t work out for the Brewers, but it worked out wonderfully for the Braves, and that combination of outcomes is why Atlanta now has a 2–1 series lead thanks to a 3–0 victory on Monday afternoon at home.

The game might not have had many runs, but it certain had plenty of drama in the first four innings. Atlanta blew a golden opportunity in the second inning when, with runners on first and third with one out, Travis d’Arnaud lofted a fly ball to left field. Neither deep nor shallow, it was still enough to serve as a sacrifice fly to give the Braves an early lead. But nobody told Adam Duvall on first, or, to be fair in sharing the blame, Austin Riley on third. Once Christian Yelich caught the ball, Riley broke for home — not lollygagging it by any stretch, but not full effort either. That proved to be critical, as Duvall, for reasons only he possibly understands (or maybe even now doesn’t), tried to go from first to second. Yelich threw Duvall out before Riley touched home, and the game remained scoreless.

The Brewers, meanwhile, didn’t come close to getting on the board until the pivotal fifth inning, when an Omar Narváez double — only Milwaukee’s third extra-base hit of the series — gave the team runners at second and third to begin the top of the frame. Dansby Swanson made an exceptional play (one of two on the afternoon) on a blistering ground ball off the bat of Lorenzo Cain for the first out, and with Peralta due to hit, the game had its first inflection point. Craig Counsell’s decision was to pull his effective starter for pinch-hitter Daniel Vogelbach.

Vogelbach, though, grounded into a fielder’s choice that resulted in an out at home. Kolten Wong then smacked a hard line drive with an expected batting average of .700, but right at first baseman Freddie Freeman. For the 20th time in 21 innings (and now 25 of 26), the Brewers put up another zero.

The removal of Peralta didn’t work on a run-scoring level, and it failed on a run-prevention one as well, as the first man out of the bullpen, Adrian Houser, simply didn’t have it. Two quick singles put Brian Snitker in a similar situation as Counsell in the top half of the frame, and the decision was the same: pull the starter, replacing Anderson with Joc Pederson. But after getting a swing and a miss on an elevated fastball, Houser went back to the well with the same pitch, and Pederson didn’t miss it, mashing a three-run home run (one which gave Atlanta the highest-scoring inning of the series). The Braves cruised from there as a quartet of relievers finished the job, each delivering a scoreless inning.

Counsell’s strategy was defensible. His bullpen has been strong all year, and lifting Peralta would leave him available in relief for one or two innings if a Game 5 became necessary. More importantly, Milwaukee needed to score runs, as its offense has gone AWOL in the postseason — though it’s not as if the Brewers were all that present in the regular season, either. While they finished sixth in the NL in runs scored, they also ranked just 11th in OPS and wRC+, and even that mediocre performance needed in-season boosts from Willy Adames, Eduardo Escobar and Rowdy Tellez to avoid a worse finish.

The problems are myriad. Yelich never got going. Cain isn’t a star anymore. Jackie Bradley Jr. was a disaster at the plate, and Keston Hiura generated more questions than answers as the team’s first baseman of the future. With one of the best rotations in the game and arguably the best manager of bullpens in all of baseball, the Brewers didn’t need all that many runs to be a very good team, but they certainly needed some runs, and that just hasn’t happened in the playoffs. Tellez’ dramatic home run in the seventh inning of Game 1 off of Charlie Morton remains the only time in 26 innings that the Brewers have crossed the plate. Here is the back of the baseball card for Milwaukee after today’s loss:

Obviously, that should generate more than two runs, but a miserable 0-for-16 with runners in scoring position adds insult to the offensive injuries.

There is no one player to blame for this kind of full-team failure; every Brewer regular has at least one hit, but Adames, with four, is the only one with more than two. The Braves have not only prevented hits — Swanson and Riley in particular have done terrific work on the left side of the infield — but also prevented balls in play at all for some of Milwaukee’s biggest names: Adames, Yelich, Escobar and Avisaíl García have combined for 23 whiffs in 44 plate appearances.

For much of the 2021 season, the talk around the Milwaukee Brewers was how well they were positioned for a postseason run thanks to arguably the best 1-2-3 rotation combo in the business. Those starters have done their job against Atlanta, allowing just three runs on ten hits over an aggregate of 16 innings, good for a 1.69 ERA. What wasn’t talked about enough was a fringy offense, and it’s the latter that has the Brewers on the brink of elimination without any of that magical starting trio available in anything but emergency relief use in Game 4 on Tuesday afternoon.

In wrapping up Game 1 of the ALDS between the Rays and the Red Sox, I noted that however inventive or even correct the pitching strategies of Alex Cora were, none of it mattered at all if his team couldn’t score. Boston’s bats have come to life in a big way, though; now Milwaukee can just hope for the same. We can debate all day as to whether or not Counsell should have pulled Peralta, but in the end, nine more goose eggs on the scoreboard made the argument irrelevant.

BOSTON — It’s a shame that one team had to lose. In a game that will go down as a postseason classic, the Boston Red Sox walked off the Tampa Bay Rays, 6–4, on a 13th-inning home run by Christian Vázquez to win Game 3 of the ALDS and take a 2–1 series lead.

Now, on to what transpired.

The eventful first inning epitomized modern-era baseball. Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi fanned three Rays batters in the top half but also gave up an Austin Meadows home run — a 406-foot shot off the back wall of the visiting bullpen — that followed a Wander Franco single. In the bottom half, Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen was taken deep by Kyle Schwarber — this one at 390 feet — but then fanned Rafael Devers after giving up a 104.8-mph single off the Green Monster by Enrique Hernández.

Eight batters into the game, we had four strikeouts, two home runs, and a pair of singles, one of which would have been a double in 29 other ballparks. Moreover, all four batted balls were hit with triple-digit exit velocity. Again, modern-era baseball: whiffs, dingers, and Statcast readings to measure it all. A three-strikeout, one-walk top of the second only added to the three-true-outcome mix. Read the rest of this entry »

In what might be the most-thrilling play we’ll see all October, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena successfully executed a straight steal of home in Game One of the ALDS. Moments later, I shared the following on Twitter:

“Instead of calmly throwing a ball right down the middle for strike three to end the inning, Taylor panicked.”

Journalist friend Bruce Schoenfeld responded as follows:

“That is exactly right. I kept waiting for the announcers to say it. I wrote a [Sports Illustrated] piece on straight steals of home & talked to every active player who’d done it. They agreed that nobody should ever try with two out and two strikes, All the pitcher has to do is throw a strike.”

In other words, Arozarena’s theft could have been nullified.

I checked with a rules expert to make sure Bruce and I weren’t mistaken. According to Chris Welsh — a former big-league pitcher and current Cincinnati Reds radio and TV analyst who runs the website Baseball Rules Academy — we had it right. Had Red Sox reliever Josh Taylor simply remained on the rubber and thrown a pitch that landed in strike zone, the batter would have been out and the inning would have been over. Instead, he made the mistake of stepping off, thereby making himself a fielder and not a pitcher. His hurried heave toward home plate wasn’t nearly in time.

Again, there were two outs and two strikes on the batter. Read the rest of this entry »

For both the Braves and Brewers, postseason success shares a similar blueprint: length from the starters, timely hits from the lineup, hope for the best with the bullpen (albeit at different times). Milwaukee executed that to perfection in Game 1 of this NLDS; in Game 2, it was Atlanta’s turn, with the Braves drawing the series even with a 3–0 win.

The difference on Saturday was Max Fried, who out-dueled Brandon Woodruff with six shutout innings, striking out nine against just three hits and zero walks. The lefty needed only 81 pitches to record his 18 outs before giving way to three relievers, who dodged plenty of trouble but managed to secure the final three frames with no damage. Like Corbin Burnes in Game 1, Fried didn’t so much beat opposing batters as brush them aside; Willy Adames was the lone Brewer to make it as far as second base against him on a sixth-inning double. Most of his outing was whiffs and soft contact, with Adames’ double the only ball in play he allowed to crack the 100 mph exit velocity mark. At-bats and innings were over in flashes.

The explanation for Fried’s success is simple: He threw strikes. Of his 81 pitches, 58 were in the zone, a 71.6% rate, which he pounded with his four-seamer — humming in at 95 mph on average — before busting out his slider and curve to finish things. Not normally a big swing-and-miss pitcher, he racked up a dozen whiffs on the day, six on the slider, to go with a CSW (called strikes + whiffs) rate of 40%; of his nine strikeouts, seven were swinging. By the time the middle innings rolled around, he’d found a groove: The final 10 Brewers hitters he faced all started their at-bats with a strike, and just two of them reached base. Read the rest of this entry »

This could have been Tampa Bay’s night. In an alternate, presumably domed and cat-walked universe, starter Shane Baz shakes off a tough start, and builds on his escape from a first-inning jam. The Rays, invigorated by their five-run rally off of Chris Sale in the bottom of the first, pour it on against Boston’s beleaguered bullpen.

It didn’t go that way. Jordan Luplow’s go-ahead grand slam off of Sale was just about the last highlight of the night for Tampa, as Boston outscored the division-winners 13-1 the rest of the way. Boston’s offensive explosion pulled the Red Sox back from the brink of a 2-0 series deficit, and ensured that ace Nathan Eovaldi gets to start in front of the Fenway faithful with a chance to take the lead in the ALDS. And while Boston’s offense did the heavy lifting, the key to the game may have come all the way back in the second inning, when Alex Cora pulled Sale in favor of Tanner Houck.

For my money, Houck is the most compelling player in the series. He pitched brilliantly down the stretch, notching a 2.52 FIP over 69 innings split between the bullpen and the rotation, and capped his season off with five perfect innings in a start last weekend against Washington. For the year, he struck out more than 30% of hitters while also generating more grounders than flies. Beyond the numbers, he’s just a real bastard to face. His low slot and deadly, sweeping slider draw inevitable comparisons to Sale, and he has one of the most devastating sinkers in the game. Read the rest of this entry »

Kyle Tucker enjoyed a breakout season this year, bashing 30 homers and leading the Astros with a 147 wRC+. Yet he’s been hitting as low as seventh in Houston’s order in an attempt to maximize the number of runners on base ahead of him in one of the game’s deepest lineups, a strategy that Owen McGrattan examined late last month. In Game 2 of the Division Series against the White Sox on Friday, that strategy paid off handsomely, with the 24-year-old slugger driving in three runs that bookended the Astros’ scoring, as well as making a key defensive play, in a 9–4 victory that will send the Astros to Chicago with a chance to sweep.

Thursday’s series opener featured Houston quickly getting ahead and Lance McCullers Jr. holding Chicago scoreless on one hit over the first six innings en route to a 6-1 victory. By contrast, Friday’s game was a wild back-and-forth affair, featuring four lead changes in the first seven innings. The Astros broke it open with a five-run seventh that was keyed by a couple of managerial moves that backfired and capped by Tucker’s two-run shot into Minute Maid Field’s Crawford Boxes.

Starters Framber Valdez and Lucas Giolito both dealt with considerable traffic as they worked through the opposing lineups the first two times, but things quickly unraveled as each attempted a third pass. While both bullpens allowed inherited runners to score, the Astros kept the White Sox scoreless the rest of the way as their offense went to town for those five runs.

Read the rest of this entry »