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Last night, Rafael Devers played his eighth game in the Major Leagues since being called up to fix Boston’s third base problem. In that eighth game, he recorded his 13th hit. It looked like this.

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The man with a 96 mph fastball and devastating changeup looks more himself these days. Danny Salazar is back up with the Indians, dealing, and was even name-checked by his General Manager as a deadline acquisition that should make their rotation hum this postseason. It could just be two good starts, but his pitching mix is radically changed. And though that change looks drastic, the driver of change might actually be more subtle.

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James Paxton had a pretty bad June. His season got off to a wonderful start, but then he landed on the DL, and shortly after his return, the calendar flipped and pitching was hard again. Paxton in June ran a 7+ ERA, and opponents blasted him to the tune of a .395 wOBA. Something appeared to be seriously wrong, but Paxton blamed his mechanics, and not his health. He found that he had some straightening out to do.

For me, one of the fundamental markers of greatness is the ability to adjust on the fly. It’s one thing to play well, but it’s quite another to play well, then struggle, then get back to playing well again. We’ve recently seen this with, say, Rich Hill. And, of course, we’ve seen this with Paxton. Paxton started six games in July, and he won each of them. He issued a total of just six walks, and he trimmed that .395 June wOBA almost literally in half. Paxton has gotten himself back on track, and I don’t know what more evidence people might need. James Paxton is extremely good. He is sufficiently proven.

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You’ve seen the news. You’ve almost certainly even seen the return, and unless you’re a devoted follower of the Dodgers’ farm system, you may not have recognized any of the names. Brendon Davis and A.J. Alexy were low-level guys who weren’t on many radars, and even the known guy in the deal was a back-end Top 100 prospect, an unorthodox-shaped hitter without a position who has never been talked up as any kind of future star.

So it’s easy to look at this deal and call it a big win for the Dodgers. They just added one of the best pitchers in baseball to an already-dominant pitching staff. Breaking the all-time record for wins in a season now isn’t that far-fetched. They are going to enter the postseason as the clear team to beat, and all it cost them was a guy who didn’t really fit on their roster in an obvious way and two lottery tickets in A-ball.

None of that is wrong. The Dodgers did well here, picking up a difference maker without surrendering any of the guys they see as potential core pieces for them down the road. But baseball trades aren’t always zero-sum affairs, and just because this was a nice move for LA doesn’t mean the Rangers got taken advantage of here.

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The A’s were never going to hold. There was simply too much for them to lose. Sure, the rumors flew around, but they never made sense, as the A’s aren’t stupid. The A’s were never going to hold, and the Yankees were always the obvious match. They stood to gain the most in the short-term, and they stood to gain the most in the long-term. An agreement felt virtually inevitable, and while there were tugs on either side, there’s nothing like a deadline to push negotiators toward a decision. As time ran out, the A’s and the Yankees finally came together, as one would’ve figured they would.

Yankees get:

• Sonny Gray
• $1.5 million in international bonus money

A’s get:

• Dustin Fowler
• James Kaprielian
• Jorge Mateo

The Yankees get to sell it as a move for a good starting pitcher in which they didn’t have to give up their absolute top-tier prospects. The A’s get to sell it as a move for three talented young players, each of whom could make a big-league splash. Neither interpretation would be incorrect — that’s how the spin goes when you’re dealing with a system as deep as New York’s. The A’s did well to get what they did, and there’s something to dream on with all of these players, yet the bigger takeaway for now is that the Yankees have taken another step forward. Their transition period is complete, and they’re now ready to try for a title.

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The Yankees needed a starting pitcher, even after acquiring Jaime Garcia. They particularly could use some long-term rotation depth, and had prioritized landing a guy who wasn’t just a rental. After missing out on Jose Quintana, there was only one real option left, and that was Sonny Gray.

The A’s, in full rebuild mode, couldn’t really afford to take the risk of Gray getting hurt again. They already saw him lose value with last year’s arm problems, and moving him now while he’s pitching well was the right thing to do, even in a buyer’s market. Their asking price seemingly scared away every team but the Yankees, which left both buyer and seller with just one option; send Sonny Gray to New York.

And now, after endless rumors of stalls and traction, it appears like it’s finally happening.

Source: Sonny Gray will be traded to the Yankees.

— JackCurryYES (@JackCurryYES) July 31, 2017

Source: Gray to Yankees done. Fowler, Mateo, Kaprelian coming back.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 31, 2017

Below, a quick overview of the trade details. We’ll do a more thorough write-up on what Gray means for the Yankees and what this return does for the A’s in a little bit.

And here’s what Eric wrote about the three guys going to Oakland in his pre-season Yankees write-up. Both Fowler and Kaprielian have sustained season-ending injuries this year, with Kaprielian underoing Tommy John surgery that will knock him out for a good chunk of next year as well. But there’s a lot of upside here for the A’s, and this package looks far better than the rumored packages this morning.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None. Missed most of season with injury.

Scouting Report
At UCLA, Kaprielian sat 89-94 with a four-pitch mix that consisted of an average curveball, cutter-like slider, and an above-average changeup that Kaprielian could run back on the outer half of the plate against righties. The Yankees selected him in the middle of the 2015 draft’s first round.

Kaprielian’s first full pro season got off to a roaring start. His fastball was sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s all of a sudden and he blew away High-A hitters for three starts following a promotion to that level. Then he was shut down for the remainder of the season with a flexor-tendon strain. He picked up some innings in the Arizona Fall League, though, where was 94-97 in his first start, then back down in the 92-93 range in a later start before his velo resurged in Novemeber and he was touching 99. Over multiple looks throughout the course of the AFL, his fastball averaged 95 mph for me, a 70 on the scouting scale if you assume Kaprielian would be able to maintain that velocity over an entire season. I’m skeptical.

All of Kaprielian’s secondaries play up because of his deceptive delivery and because they all look the same as they approach the plate before darting in subtly different directions. His slider sits 85-87 and will touch 90 with short, cutter-like action. It’s oft used. The curveball is mostly 82-85 with a bit more downward depth, and he has the same above-average changeup he had in college and that he cuts at times.

Conservatively, there’s a chance for three plus pitches, a viable fourth weapon in the curveball and average control/command. That’s approaching a top-of-the-rotation arm. If the fastball velocity we saw throughout the Fall League is sustainable, and I’m light on the fastball grade, then we’re there. Kaprielian’s being babied along this spring but has a chance to crack New York’s rotation this year provided, of course, he can stay healthy.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .254/.306/.379 at High-A.

Scouting Report
Mateo was a relatively unheralded signing from January of 2012, inking a $250,000 bonus. By 2014, he had grown an inch, added 20 pounds and started dominating the lowest levels of the minors. His skills have more or less tracked as expected since then. He remains an 80 runner, one of the fastest prospects in baseball, routinely reaching first in 4 seconds or less. While neither Mateo’s first step nor lateral range at shortstop are as superlative as his straight-line speed, he’s fine there and has the requisite arm strength, athleticism, footwork and actions to be an average defender at shortstop.

Of course, Gleyber Torres’ presence in the organization complicates Mateo’s defensive future, and he began playing second base last year. Scouts have varying opinions on who fits best at short. Mateo’s actions aren’t as flashy and sexy as Torres’s, but he’s twitchier and has a better first step. Others prefer Torres’s bigger, stronger body at short, which carries a heavier physical burden than second base does. And others just want to see Mateo run around in center field, where he played a bit during the fall, simply because they speculatively believe he could be an elite defender there with reps. Of all the recent speedy shortstop/center-field prospects (Roman Quinn and Billy Hamilton to name two), Mateo has the most viable combination of arm strength and infield actions. I have him graded out at shortstop as a future 50 for now (just because projecting him at either second or center right now is comparatively abstract, and Dustin Fowler is a factor in this conversation, as well) but obviously where he ends up on the defensive spectrum will be a significant determining variable for his ultimate value. Big-league shortstops and center fielders hit about .260/.320/.407 last year, second baseman hit .270/.330/.425. One of those is within reasonable reach for Mateo and the other might be a bit much.

Mateo’s stride-less swing is simple, and he avoids excessive strikeouts despite a lengthy bat path and aggressive, expansive approach. He has decent bat control and hand-eye coordination and projects as an average hitter whose average and on-base percentage might be inflated by his blazing speed. He still has some physical projection remaining and should have average raw power at peak, though the current iteration of his swing is unlikely to yield better than 40 power in games. That’s a potential above-average player at shortstop but closer to the fringes at second base. In center field, well, it depends on the quality of his defense there. There are several possible outcomes here, and they generally point to Mateo being a good everyday player.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.8 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .281/.311/.458 at Double-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
Fowler developed a bit of a tweener reputation in 2015 (as he was breaking out) because he didn’t hit for power in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, his first full, healthy season as a pro. In 2016, Fowler got out of Tampa and mashed at Trenton, tallying 56 extra-base hits and 25 steals during an injury-free year. He’s a plus runner and already average in center field, though he could be above with reps.

While he’ll occasionally pepper the opposite-field gap, Fowler is largely an up-the-middle and pull hitter and indeed much of the extra-base damage he does is to his pull side, down the line. He has average raw power but projects to run into around 12-15 homers annually with lots of doubles. He tracks pitches well, has good bat speed and projects as a plus hitter. Even with an aggressive approach that might hinder his ability to reach base, a 60 bat with 40 power plays in center field, where any kind of power is at a premium. I consider him a high-probability average everyday big leaguer.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 5.1 WAR

While Zach Britton is the big name, and Brad Hand has been priced like an even bigger name, Justin Wilson might have actually been the most sought after reliever on the market this week. Basically every contender in baseball wanted him. The finalists were reportedly the Dodgers, Astros, Nationals, and Cubs, and the Tigers really couldn’t have asked for a better group to have bidding up the price on their best trade chip.

In the end, it appears that the Cubs put the offer on the table Detroit liked most. While the deal isn’t official yet, the teams are reportedly reviewing medical information, which means it should be done soon.

The deal is reportedly as follows.

The strong market for Wilson reflects the way the game has changed. He’s only been a closer for a couple of months now, and he has just 14 career saves. His ERA last year was 4.14. He’s never been an All-Star. Yet all of the best teams in baseball wanted him, because despite the lack of accolades, Justin Wilson is really good.

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Catchers are unique, and catchers are tricky. There are always questions about how any new player will fit in, but if you want a new left fielder, you can just go get a new left fielder. Catchers are more complicated, because they occupy leadership roles, and they need to be familiar with entire pitching staffs. For reasons like those, you don’t often see everyday catchers dealt in the middle of the season. Jonathan Lucroy was an exception last summer, when he was traded from the Brewers to the Rangers. And now he’s exceptional again, having been traded from the Rangers to the Rockies. Lucroy, teams are willing to believe in. Lucroy must be considered fast to adapt.

The two trades have Jonathan Lucroy in common. What they also have in common is that, like the 2016 Rangers, the 2017 Rockies are looking to go to the playoffs. But there’s one dramatic difference. Lucroy, a year ago, fetched high-level prospect talent. That was talent he was worth. Lucroy, this year, has fetched a player to be named later, or cash. I could make the same statement. Lucroy’s stock has plummeted — and yet, that even being the case, he can still make the Rockies a better baseball team.

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The New York Yankees had been in the trade market for a starting pitcher — or at least had been rumored to be in it — even before Michael Pineda was felled by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. While a trade prior to Pineda’s injury was seen as a luxury, it became a necessity once he was out for the season. They fulfilled that necessity this morning, when they acquired Jaime Garcia — whose two trades in a week, with the final one landing him in New York make him a very poor man’s version of Mike Piazza.

Before we get into this trade, can we just acknowledge the bizarro world detail of it? Per Joel Sherman:
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Lars Anderson likes to experience new things, and he’s currently doing so on the other side of the world. One year removed from a season in the Dodgers system, the 29-year-old former top prospect in the Red Sox organization is playing with the Kochi Fighting Dogs, an independent team in Japan’s Shikoku Island League. One of his teammates is Manny Ramirez.

Anderson — featured in this column a few years ago — had gone from shooting star to minor league role player, and riding the pine wasn’t his cup of tea. As he told me recently, “I love playing baseball. I do not love watching it.” He began daydreaming about places that interested him culturally, and also had professional baseball. Japan was at the top of his list.

Conversations with Terrmel Sledge and John Bowker — each of whom had played in both MLB and NPB — followed. The Fighting Dogs made an offer, and come the third week of March, Anderson arrived in Kochi.  

Things have gone well. The Shikoku Island League plays a split season — “there are no official games in June and July due to the rainy season” — and Anderson finished the April-May first half leading the league in home runs. Facing pitchers “with a wide range of ability” he was second in RBIs, and in the Top 10 in batting average. The second half of the Fighting Dogs schedule begins tomorrow.

Along with Anderson, Manny Being Manny will remain with the team. The two have known each other since they were teammates with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs in 2014, and not surprisingly Anderson has an appreciation for the enigmatic one-time superstar. Read the rest of this entry »