Archive for Featured

Earlier this week, I examined the Rafael Devers call up and the void that has been the Red Sox’ third base production for what seems like forever. But I also looked at the weakest position player units among the contenders such as the Rockies’ right field situation (and catcher, and first base and shortstop positions) and the Yankees’ first base production.

But another notable production void among contenders, particularly among division leaders with aspirations of playing deep into October, is the Nationals’ catching situation. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this month I set out to explore an adjustment Bryce Harper has been working on, a sort of lower gear, to ostensibly better allow him to compete against elite velocity and with two strikes.

As of July 26th, the leg-kick-less swing remains, and it continues to get results. It has helped Harper become the best two-strike hitter in baseball this season and it is not particularly close as you can see via FanGraphs leaderboards. Read the rest of this entry »

With the trade deadline swiftly approaching, it’s time for some updated KATOH rankings. I know you’re not here to read about assumptions and caveats, so I’ll keep the non-list part of this article short and sweet.

• For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated.
• KATOH+ incorporates Baseball America’s midseason top-100 list and Eric Longenhagen’s preseason FV grades for players excluded from BA’s list. Stats-only KATOH does not consider prospect rankings.
• These projections account only for minor-league stats. While I’ve done work with college players, I have not yet attempted to merge college and minor-league data. These projections also do not account for any major-league performance.
• All players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced in 2016 and/or 2017 were considered.
• This isn’t “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from my far-from-perfect statistical model.

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On Sunday, the Red Sox announced they were promoting top prospect Rafael Devers from Triple-A and inserting him as their starting third baseman, filling a spot that had been a pretty big problem for the team this year. Last night, Devers made his Major League debut in Seattle, drawing a pair of walks off of Felix Hernandez and Edwin Diaz. But while Devers was playing his first Major League game, the Red Sox acquired a guy who might end up taking his job.

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White Sox general manger Rich Hahn isn’t messing around.

And the Brewers are asserting themselves as buyers, at least modest ones.

Chicago is reportedly sending reliever Anthony Swarzak to Milwaukee for Triple-A outfielder Ryan Cordell.

Hahn began an inspired rebuild of the White Sox this winter and was widely applauded for the return he received for stars like Chris Sale and Adam Eaton.

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What follows is an excerpt from Chapter 6 — “The War on WAR” — of Jay Jaffe’s new book, The Cooperstown Casebook, which is out in stores today. You can also read Paul Swydan’s review of the book over at The Hardball Times.

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Happy Trade Deadline Week, folks.

T minus 175 hours, roughly, until the non-waiver deadline horn sounds.

This period, of course, represents the last, best chance for contending clubs to add pieces and fill gaps — and for sellers to spin off remaining assets. Dave Cameron updated his buyer-seller status list last week and things remain fluid. Just since that update, the Brewers’ playoff odds have declined by roughly 20 percentage points to 10%, so there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty in places like the NL Central, which will add an element of drama to the period. Teams must first decide how much they are willing to bet on themselves.

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Jose Berrios is having a breakout season. In 13 starts for the Minnesota Twins, the 23-year-old right-hander has a 3.50 ERA, and he’s won nine of his twelve decisions. His breaking ball is a big reason. It’s a plus pitch, and certainly not run-of-the mill.

I recently had the following exchange with Twins pitching coach Neil Allen:

How would you describe Berrios’s breaking ball?

“It’s Bugs Bunny. It’s pretty darn good.”

Is it a curveball or a slider?

“It’s a little bit of both.”

Chris Gimenez had a less-catchy, but every bit as compelling, response to the same question(s).

“It’s a curveball, but he can make it a little more slider-ish when he’s really trying to wrench it down and away from a right-hander,” said the Minnesota backstop. “It’s the closest I’ve seen to Corey Kluber’s curveball, and to Yu Darvish’s slider. I’ve had a chance to catch both of those guys, and that’s some pretty elite company to be in.”

Curveballs and sliders are obviously classified differently, so I asked Gimenez to elaborate. Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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I don’t know if the Cubs are actually coming out of their funk, but it sure looks like they are. It feels like a matter of days before they re-claim first place in the NL Central, which is the outcome we’ve all long expected. There’s still work to do yet, but as the Cubs improve, it sends more eyes over to the Indians. The Indians have been in a funk of their own, and while they’re already sitting in first, they’ve been unable to shake the Twins and the Royals. Even the Tigers remain within conceivable striking distance, and they’ve begun to sell. The Indians were supposed to be better than this, and the clock, as a clock does, is ticking.

Struggling team? Check. Trade deadline approaching? Check. Observers are wondering how the Indians might look to get better in the week and a half ahead. One thought has been that the club could look to add another starting pitcher. With Danny Salazar about to return from injury, perhaps that wouldn’t be necessary. But for me, the key isn’t the return of Salazar. Rather, it’s the emergence of Mike Clevinger. Clevinger has stepped up in a big way, giving the Indians more than they thought they might have.

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