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This is Matt Swartz’ first piece as part of his July residency at FanGraphs. A former contributor to FanGraphs and the Hardball Times — and current contributor to MLB Trade Rumors — Swartz also works as consultant to a Major League team. You can find him on Twitter here. Read the work of all our residents here.

I’m excited to begin my FanGraphs Residency this month, during which I’ll present an updated analysis of the Dollars per WAR estimates that I’ve used for a long time. I’ve written about the Dollars per WAR framework for analyzing the free-agent market for nearly a decade now, most recently in a three–part series at Hardball Times using data through the 2013 season. In that collection of posts, I established the important definition of Dollars per WAR that I will use throughout this series of articles — namely, the average cost of acquiring one win above replacement on the free-agent market.

Since I’ve written about this, however, there has been a progressively minded, labor-sympathetic pushback against this framework that I felt it was important to address, because if the criticism were fair it would cast a long shadow across all of the analysis in the coming articles. Fortunately, I believe that this criticism is misguided, even if you accept the value system that proponents of this line of criticism generally espouse.

From my perspective, I will remain agnostic on the value system itself in these criticisms, but simply explain why I think this type of analysis does not line up with an anti-labor view at all. I will admit up front that I consult to a Major League team and therefore, when working for them, I do represent the interests of that employer. What I say in these articles, however, will represent only my own views — and, in general, I’m writing this from my perspective as a frequent contributor on this topic predating this good fortune, and as an economist — but neither as a team employee representing ownership nor as a former Department of Labor employee, either.

I’d like to address two well-written and well-argued articles here that I believe characterize some of the labor-related concerns. One by Mike Bates asks if statheads are pro-ownership and another by Michael Baumann reframes a series of team-friendly contracts as inherently bad and unfair. What I’d like to consider here is the implicit suggestion made by both authors that, when teams individually target lower cost-per-WAR players, that this doesn’t affect the prices of these lower cost-per-WAR players and drive them up, but rather that it serves only to drive down the price of higher cost-per-WAR players. This seems very unlikely to be true according to some of the increased prices for lower cost-per-WAR categories of players I find in later pieces in this series.

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Last season, second basemen produced their best collective season ever in major-league history. There are a few different theories about what might have happened. With the increased use of the shift, it’s possible that teams were willing to deploy worse defenders at second in exchange for more offensive production. It’s also possible it was just a random blip of very good seasons by quite a few second basemen. Those are the most likely explanations, at least.

We’re now roughly halfway through the 2017 campaign, and the production from second basemen so far has been good — one of the better seasons of all time, if things hold up — but it also represents a big step back from what we saw last year.

How big a step back? Well, consider: last year, 11 second basemen recorded four-win seasons.

In contrast, here’s the list of players who are projected to hit 4.0 WAR by the end of the current season.

Even if you include the players who are “on pace” to hit four wins — if not forecast by the projections to do so — then the only additions are Josh Harrison (2.3 WAR as of Sunday) and Jed Lowrie (2.1 WAR).

It’s not just overall value that’s taken a step back, either. If you look at the first table from this post, you’ll see that nine second baseman recorded at least a 120 wRC+ last season. Matt Carpenter — who split time evenly between second, third, and first — would make a 10th. Nor does that include the 122 wRC+ or 3.7 WAR produced by Neil Walker, as he fell roughly 50 plate appearances short of qualifying for the batting title.

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Blake Parker is a proven closer, but only down on the farm. Of the 32-year-old right-hander’s 117 professional saves, only three have been in a big-league uniform. The most recent came a week ago, with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Playing at Fenway Park, Parker entered with two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning, and punched out Chris Young to close out a 6-3 win over the Red Sox.

He’s having an All-Star-quality year. In 39 relief outings, the first-year Angel has a 2.04 ERA and a 1.38 FIP, and he’s fanning batters at a rate of 13 per nine innings. The extent to which that’s a surprise is a matter of debate. His MLB opportunities have been at a premium in recent seasons, but Parker’s Triple-A efforts have been exemplary. Sandwiched around an injury-truncated 2015 were a 25-save campaign that included a 1.77 ERA and a 13.1 K-rate, and a 19-save campaign with a 2.72 ERA and A 12.7 k-rate.

Parker believes that closing in the minors helps prepare a pitcher for doing so in the majors — “you learn how to deal with the emotional stress that comes with pitching the ninth” — and he likewise feels it impacts one’s ability to handle high-leverage situations in preceding innings.

“They say the last three outs are the hardest to get,” said Parker. “But while they may be the toughest mentally, sometimes you get the back end of the order in the ninth. I’m not saying those guys can’t hit, but there is something to getting those crucial outs in the seventh and eighth. I think my experience closing in the minors helps me harness my emotions to do both.”

Harnessing emotions was essential when he came on to face Young — and bail out a struggling Cam Bedrosian — with the game on the line. Fenway Park was a cauldron of expectant energy, with 36,000 fans on their feet. It was white-knuckle time, but the righty wasn’t intimidated. Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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The 2017 July 2 signing period is set to begin on Sunday. Here is the 2017 J2 Sortable Board with tool grades and scouting reports for the players whom I believe to be the best in the class. The changes made to the J2 process when the last Collective Bargaining Agreement was ratified in November are significant and have impacted the way teams approach signing players; altered how a given class’s talent is distributed throughout baseball; changed players’ earning power; and, at least for now, forced prospects to consider how to best time their decision to sign.

Before diving into the details pertaining to this year’s class, allow me to suggest some prerequisite reading should this be your first time navigating FanGraphs’ scouty pages. If the 20-80 scale and scouting terminology is new to you, this piece will be helpful. If you’d like more context on the previous July 2 rules as we discuss the way the new CBA has changed them in this article, I suggest this.

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Pace. The word occupying the most of Rob Manfred’s mind is pace. Or maybe it’s action. They could be tied. Manfred wants more action; he wants a quicker pace. In short, he wants more things to happen. Games continue to grow longer and longer, and that means dead time. Strikeouts continue to rise, and that means fewer balls in play. Home runs continue to rise, and that means…I don’t know, reducing the thrill of the average home run. If I had to distill everything down, I’d say that baseball is most concerned with staying interesting. It doesn’t want to be the boring sport, and it doesn’t want to become the more boring sport.

Personally, I’m not bored by baseball. I know you’re not, either, because this place is selective for superfans. Even if you wouldn’t ordinarily think of yourself as being a baseball superfan, you almost certainly qualify. Think about the website you’re reading right now. We all still find pleasure in the game, and I’m not finding any less than I ever have. If anything, my own level of interest deepens by the day.

But, wouldn’t you know it, but you could say baseball really is more boring than it’s been in a while. Not so much in a way that you’d notice. It’s subtle, as many trends are. But I have numbers to make a case. While I don’t know what to make of them, I’d still like to share them, while I have your attention.

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The All-Star game is just a few weeks away, and on Sunday, we’ll find out the results of the fan’s voting for the starters, as well as most of the reserves. In advance of the announcement, I’m going to give you my selections for how I would fill out both squads if MLB granted me totalitarian authority and let me fill all 32 spots. I’m sticking with the rules agreed to in the CBA, so I’m taking 20 position players and 12 pitchers, with each team sending at least one representative.

And while I’ll generally defer to players who are established stars over guys who are off to strong starts this season, I also believe that the game is designed to reward the players who are having the best seasons, so 2017 performance is the primary factor in determining who goes and who stays home. It’s not the only factor, but you have to be playing well this year to make my squad, and even if we expect significant regression in the second half, I’m still putting you on the team if you’re clearly either the best or second-best player at your position this year.

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*Update: Miguel Montero will be designated for assignment, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago.

The Cubs had a rough evening in Washington on Tuesday.

Yes, Trea Turner can really run, as verified by the latest Statcast tool — Sprint Speed — available to the masses. (Turner is the right-most purple dot in the chart below.)

But the Cubs lost complete control of the running game last night, allowing a total of seven stolen bases (including four to Turner alone) in a 6-1 loss to Washington.

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Over at Baseball Savant, another Statcast leaderboard has been rolled out. This one relates to speed. They are calling it Sprint Speed, and the definition is as follows:

Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window.” The Major League average on a “max effort” play is 27 ft/sec, and the max effort range is roughly from 23 ft/sec (poor) to 30 ft/sec (elite). A player must have at least 10 max effort runs to qualify for this leaderboard.

While Sprint Speed has been used for a while, we didn’t have leaderboards until now. Mike Petriello over at MLB.com has a full article on the rollout which I would recommend. Among the highlights: Sprint Speed correlates well from year to year; it doesn’t require a large sample to become reflective of true talent (Petriello compares speed to fastball velocity); and it might be useful when attempting to identify injuries that could be slowing players down.

So, we know that the metric can tell us who is fast and who is not. That’s helpful. I wondered if it might also be able tell us anything about any other statistics.

Before trying to predict the future or look at past years, I thought it might be useful to compare speed to the stats we have and see how they compare. While the leaderboard over at Statcast features nearly 350 names (every player who’s produced 10 or more max-speed data points), those sample sizes might be a bit too small when looking at other statistics. As a result, I narrowed the sample for this study down to the 166 players who were qualified at the end of Monday’s games.

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