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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below.

What the reader will note regarding this particular list relative to previous iterations of same is its considerable length. This same exercise last year contained 55 names; the year before that, 47. Below, one finds 82 of them. The greater size is not the product of a concerted effort to provide greater coverage, but rather of mere necessity: the quantity of useful free agents (or potential free agents, at least) appears itself simply to be greater than in recent years.

Note that players with options certain to be exercised were omitted from balloting. Note also that, despite having received ballots, both Jaime Garcia and Torii Hunter have been omitted from the list below, owing to their near futures having been already determined — by the exercise of an option in the former case, retirement in the latter. Note finally that the crowd has demonstrated a distinct tendency to underestimate the overall contract values of free agents — especially among those players expected to receive the greatest compensation.

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The playoffs are over, and as balls and strikes go, the tournament wasn’t overly controversial. There were some misses, sure. There was that called strike against Ben Revere at nearly the worst possible time. That wasn’t great, and I’m sure there are some Blue Jays fans who are still fuming. Shortly before that, there was a similar called strike against Dioner Navarro. Rough inning. As for called balls, the Royals didn’t love that one called for Jose Bautista in a full count. There are always going to be arguments, since non-lasered humans are expected to call the strike zone with laser-like precision, but these playoffs could’ve been worse. The controversial calls were at least close to the borders. The calls were forgivable.

The controversial calls aren’t always close to the borders. Sometimes the calls are just bad. Like, take this called ball — according to PITCHf/x, this was 1.3 inches from the center of the strike zone at the front of home plate. Imagine if this had taken place in the playoffs, and led to a rally?

1.3 inches. That means part of the baseball passed through the very center of the zone. Doesn’t seem like a ball like that should ever take place. And this wasn’t even the worst called ball of the season. No, that one was thrown by Jeff Samardzija, literally one day later, on August 19. Samardzija’s called ball was measured at 1.2 inches from the center of the strike zone.

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The Nationals were psychologically prepared to replace Matt Williams with Bud Black. But according to reports, they were less financially prepared to do that, so now they’re actually replacing Williams with Dusty Baker. For the organization, it’s something of an embarrassing turn, not because they ended up with Baker, but because they acted too cheaply to get their first choice. But, whatever, that’s already in the past. What matters now is Baker. And few managers and managerial candidates can provoke so strong a fan reaction. When it comes to Dusty Baker, people have feelings.

For sure, there are those who point to his record, his experience and history of winning. He’s a proven manager, which Matt Williams most certainly was not. Yet Baker also has another reputation. When word started to spread that he was going to Washington, a common response was that it would be bad news for the pitching staff. Baker is forever followed by references to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, and it’s the sort of thing he clearly can’t out-run. To so many people, Baker is a pitcher-destroyer. Even among those who don’t really feel that way, everyone’s familiar with the rep.

It should be understood that nothing is ever simple. And it should be understood that behavior changes. Dusty Baker is going to manage the Washington Nationals. I don’t see a convincing argument for why that’s a bad thing.

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One doesn’t simply write about Jupiter, not without first reflecting on this matter’s relative futility.

Perfect Game’s 2015 WWBA World Championship – often referred to by its aforementioned host town in Florida – marks the last stop on the high school showcase circuit. Between Oct. 22 and 26, 85 travel ball teams competed against each other at the Roger Dean Stadium complex, the spring training home of the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins. Though most of the top-flight draft talent was concentrated among 20 or so teams, it was still tricky to navigate 13 fields in a golf cart while jockeying for real estate behind home plate of said fields with hoards of other golf carts. This happened for five days, for 10-14 hours each day, depending on your ambition level. And lo, this test of scouting endurance was further complicated by basic human maintenance, as one must still eat on a regular basis and displace the eaten contents on a more timelier one. I say these things to say that there was a lot happening at once, and as one half of a two-man FanGraphs team that slogged through this test, I also say that it was difficult to see all of which that happened at once, in case your expectations were higher before you finished reading this sentence.

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Last weekend featured the first event I covered as Lead Prospect Analyst for FanGraphs. I cannot imagine a better crash course in the who’s who of draft prospects than the Perfect Game WWBA tournament in Jupiter, Florida. Jesse Burkhart and I spent the weekend watching players and exchanging notes and ideas; be sure to check out his post for some information on other top high school prospects attending the event.

This article will hopefully be a little different than what you can find elsewhere covering the tournament. There were too many players in too short a period to reasonably do a ranked list, and boring everybody with a long list with a short blurb on each is no fun. Instead, I chose three players who are either undervalued or just generally interesting to me, and have given a full analysis of what makes each one provocative while also attempting to characterize their limitations. These are not the three best players we saw in Jupiter, but rather the ones whose strengths I wanted to illuminate. Read this as a case study on three specific players as well as an introduction to the thought process through which I go while looking at amateur prospects.

Following the three main write-ups, I’ve also posted some thoughts on players of interest upon whom Jesse doesn’t touch in his piece. Some are probable first or second round picks for next June, others are lesser ranked guys whose upside you might interest you. None of these evaluations are set in stone, since although I had seen a decent number of the top rated guys on video and read others’ thoughts prior to Jupiter, these are still fresh faces to me. As I said in my introductory post when I was hired, I want you guys to engage in discussions on any players you have seen or questions you may have about the discussed prospects here.

Drew Mendoza SS/3B Minneola, FL (Florida State)

Before seeing him play last week, I had already heard of Mendoza’s defensive skills. He possesses a reputation for being a quality shortstop prospect with excellent footwork and range to pair with a strong arm. Kiley McDaniel said this about Mendoza in his early 2016 draft rankings posted earlier this season:

Mendoza was a skinny shortstop with some feel to hit from the left side that was a solid follow, then he hit two homers this spring off RHP Brady Singer, who will likely go in the first 50-60 picks this summer. Mendoza has filled out his lanky 6’4 frame a bit but still looks like a [sic] shortstop for now, with the bat showing more impact.

I was disappointed not to see him make any plays that challenged his abilities to corroborate the rep, but in warm ups and fielding practice his skills are still readily apparent. He carries himself well, with good balance and fluid movements catching and throwing the ball. The athleticism in his arm alone is exceptionally smooth. What I was surprised to see is how impressive he is at the plate.

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Let me give you three stat lines, and you’ll understand immediately where this is going. It’s time for Player A, B, and C. Let’s add in D, E, and F too.

Royals Players’ Recent Seasons

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	DEF
A	0.212	0.271	0.361	76	4.6
B	0.232	0.324	0.378	87	-1.6
C	0.232	0.304	0.359	80	-25.4
D	0.251	0.310	0.348	80	20.3
E	0.218	0.274	0.338	72	-11.5
F	0.257	0.293	0.320	67	13.9

wRC+ = weighted runs created plus, or a weighted offensive stat where 100 is league average
DEF = FanGraphs defensive value, or positional value plus defensive value

These guys look bad.

Player A had that season in 2014. He was 26 and supposedly headed towards peaking. He could make contact and hit for power, but there was something missing. A pull-happy fly-ball approach easily defended by the shift, no walks — suddenly his glove was keeping him afloat. That wasn’t supposed to happen.

What’s funny is that Mike Moustakas actually learned the lesson he needed to learn in 2013. It just took until 2015 to really cement in his day to day work. As Ben Lindbergh pointed out on Grantland this year, he meant to change his approach to the shift coming into the 2014 season by trying to maybe hit balls over the shortstop sometimes.

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I watched the last Super Bowl in Seattle. It was a hell of a football game. It followed what had been, for the Seahawks, a miraculous conference championship game, and in the Super Bowl itself, another miraculous event put the Seahawks on the verge of a title. And then, in the dying seconds, a controversial play was called, and they threw an interception from the one-yard line. That quickly, everything that happened before was erased. A feeling crept into the fans around me, and collectively they refused to feel it. Instead, they felt confusion. Why pass? Why not run? What if they had run? The real heartache did sink in in time, but still the confusion lingers. Why not run? Would they have won if they had run? As far as the sport is concerned, it’s the greatest unanswerable question imaginable. There is no closure to be found. The closure doesn’t exist.

I also watched the previous Super Bowl in Seattle. They say people were nervous about it, but the game was shockingly comfortable. On the very first play, the Seahawks recorded a safety. The eventual celebration knew nothing of the horror that was to come. It knew nothing of the fact that a year later, that celebratory feeling would be impossible to remember unblemished.

I’ve asked myself a hundred times what it would’ve felt like if the two Super Bowls were reversed. Seemed to me, it would’ve felt perfect.

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Yesterday, Alex Anthopolous left the Blue Jays, turning down a contract to remain with the team because, as he said in his conference call, he didn’t think it was a good fit anymore.

“I don’t know that I’ve had to make a harder decision in my life, but I did what I felt like I needed to do,” Anthopoulos said. “I just didn’t feel like this was a right fit for me going forward.”

It’s pretty clearly not a coincidence that Anthopoulos’ exit coincides with the arrival of Mark Shapiro, who was hired in August to take over as the new team president. Shapiro was brought in to replace Paul Beeston, so while it’s not a new position in the Blue Jays organization, the fact that ownership openly courted guys with baseball operations backgrounds — first Kenny Williams, then Dan Duquette, and now Shapiro — makes it seem that they’re changing the responsibilities of the position. Beeston was a business guy, an accountant who worked his way up through the organization’s financial side, but the Blue Jays actions over the last year make it clear they wanted a baseball guy in the team president role.

This is the new trend in baseball, of course. Over the last five years, it has become en vogue to promote the General Manager to President of Baseball Operations, or some similar title. The Blue Jays, in fact, became the 12th team to employ a recently promoted GM (or manager, in one case) in that job, with the title of GM going to someone else in the baseball operations department.

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During the fifth inning of Game Two, as Alcides Escobar attempted to bunt against Jacob deGrom, Harold Reynolds decried the current state of bunting in professional baseball. Even after he admitted that hard throwers are hard to bunt on, he went on a mini tirade: “I know it’s hard to get one down against a guy that throws this hard, but I’ve never seen this bad of bunting. Ever. Ever! In baseball, just across the board. I know Escobar can handle the bat, but we see this every night. They have to move the runner. Not just the Royals, but across the board.”

The moment was probably lost for a couple reasons. For one, Escobar decided to swing-away after two failed bunt attempts, and promptly tied the game with a single to center. There was too much excitement to think too deeply about the state of bunting in our game. Now we have a second to breathe, though.

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