The Marlins, who acquired some thump earlier on Deadline Day in the form of Jake Burger, went out and acquired some more right after the bell rang, picking up Josh Bell in exchange for Jean Segura and prospect Kahlil Watson. Nearly simultaneously, news broke that the Marlins were trading Garrett Cooper and pitching prospect Sean Reynolds to the Padres for left-hander Ryan Weathers. (The Marlins are also paying down Cooper’s salary to the league minimum.)

Burger’s addition made Segura surplus to requirements; if the Marlins had seen enough of him, it made sense to trade him to the only team that loves slap hitters more than they do. But the Guardians are releasing Segura and in the process eating the remainder of his salary for 2023 and ’24 ($8.5 million), plus a $2 million buyout for ’25. In exchange, they pick up a prospect and jettison Bell’s even more expensive salary for next year. Here, I made a handy chart:

I explored the Marlins’ reasons for jettisoning Segura in the Burger piece, but it’s pretty easy reasoning to follow: They want to make the playoffs, and Segura is hitting .219/.277/.279.

The swap of first basemen is the most interesting piece of this trade for me. Both Cooper and Bell had highly decorated 2022 campaigns — the former made the All-Star team, and the latter won a Silver Slugger — but have disappointed in ’23. On the surface, this looks like the Marlins are swapping one moderately disappointing first baseman/DH for another more expensive one.

So why would the Marlins do this? I can think of a few reasons. First, Bell is a switch-hitter, and Cooper is a righty with similar weaknesses to Burger — namely, lots of strikeouts and relatively few walks. And Bell has attributes that make him more attractive than Cooper as a bounce-back candidate. He walks more, he strikes out less, he’s two years younger, and he has superior raw power, even if accessing it in games has always been an uncertain proposition.

Then there’s the contract. Cooper makes $3.9 million this year and is a pending free agent. Bell is in the first season of a two-year deal that pays him $16.5 million annually. If the Marlins consider Segura a sunk cost — i.e., if they were going to release him anyway — what they’ve done is essentially bought a one-year, $6 million flyer on Bell as a bounce-back candidate for 2024, assuming he doesn’t opt out. That strikes me as a pretty reasonable gamble.

From the Padres’ perspective, why would they want Cooper? First of all, they are only giving up Weathers. Yes, he is just 23, is a former top-10 pick, and is under team control until 2027. But he made his major league debut in the 2020 playoffs and has been given numerous opportunities to claim a spot on San Diego’s pitching staff over the three seasons that followed, and he simply has not done so. Right now, over 143 big league innings, he has a 5.73 ERA, a 5.54 FIP, and a K% of just 16.8. Maybe the potential that inspired the Padres to draft him is still in there, but if it is, they would’ve been able to access it by now if that were within their capability.

The Marlins, meanwhile, have made young change-of-scenery lefthanders into their side hustle over the past couple years, with Jesús Luzardo and A.J. Puk among their current examples. They’d have reason to be optimistic that they can right whatever is wrong with Weathers. But for the Padres? Now feels like a good time to let him go.

In exchange, San Diego gets a prospect, Reynolds (more on him later), plus Cooper. Earlier, I wrote about the Padres’ acquisition of Ji Man Choi, a player who was built to form the left-handed side of a platoon at either first base or DH. At the time, the most logical platoon partner for him seemed to be whichever of the team’s two catchers wasn’t wearing the tools of ignorance on that particular evening. Cooper is well-suited to that role. And with the Marlins kicking in a little over $1 million to even out the salaries, the Padres get to try him out basically for free.

As for Reynolds, he’s a 25-year-old conversion project currently at Triple-A. The 6-foot-8-inch righty was once a first baseman himself and has got mid-90s velocity with good feel for both a breaking ball and a changeup. The no. 22 prospect in Miami’s system before the trade, he’s hardly a headliner, but he’s close to the majors now and could be a useful big league reliever under the right circumstances. That, plus a bat the Padres could use, is a suitable return for a pitcher they can’t use.

Now for Cleveland. A cynical reading of this trade says the Guardians are dumping a disappointing contract for a moderately less expensive one. Two years at $16.5 million per isn’t a backbreaker for most ownership groups, but it is for the Dolans. They save about $9 million, all-in, by swapping Bell for the right to release Segura. Raise a banner.

But Watson is an interesting prospect. The no. 16 overall pick as a North Carolina high schooler in 2021, he has explosive tools and was the no. 49 global prospect on the 2022 preseason top 100. Switch-hitting middle infielders who can get on base don’t come along every day. Since then, unfortunately, he has been suspended by the Marlins for using his bat to pantomime shooting an umpire and failed to hold his own against older competition in the Midwest League. As is the case with so many talented high school position players, Watson still needs to prove he can hit professional pitching. At the time of the trade, he was the no. 8 prospect on our Marlins list, with a FV of 45.

For taking on the less useful and slightly expensive end of a bilateral salary dump, Cleveland could’ve done worse. The modal outcome for Watson is probably that he doesn’t have a meaningful big league career, so in that respect acquiring him is a risk. But if he even comes close to figuring things out and reaching his potential, he’ll be the best player in the trade, unless Bell gets first-half-of-2022 hot again. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot going on here.

If I were to criticize this trade from Cleveland’s perspective, it would be on the grounds that the Guardians got cheaper and worse while they were a game out of a playoff spot. Yes, they’re under .500 and half their rotation (the good half, in fact) is on the IL, but they are just as much in the playoff race than the Padres are. And as disappointing as Bell has been so far this year, if the Guardians had a better internal replacement, they would’ve used him already. That’s disappointing. The rebuttal to that argument is that Bell has been so close to replacement level that losing him doesn’t hurt that much, and Watson and that $9 million in savings could be meaningful down the road. So it goes.

The Marlins have a decent shot at getting better now, the Guardians might get better in the long term, and the Padres stay about the same but with a player pool that better suits their immediate needs. Plus everyone’s accountants get some extra work. Everyone has the opportunity to win.

Every year, the Rays and Guardians pull off a neat magic trick. They piece together an impressive starting rotation by using a few awesome pitchers they’ve developed, some mid-level guys who pitch way above their pedigree, and a few slots of the rotation that mostly look like scrubs but churn out solid value anyway. The Rays like to sprinkle in some cheap veteran acquisitions that turn out to be better than we all thought, too. When the inevitable heat death of the universe occurs, I half expect Cleveland and Tampa Bay to be locked in the 12th inning of a 2–2 game, so consistent are their developmental pipelines.

The 2023 season has put some stress on the Rays’ side of that equation, though. Their top-end starters have been excellent. Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin have both provided great bulk, Tyler Glasnow has been fantastic since returning from injury, and Taj Bradley is promising despite a rough start to the season (but is headed to Triple-A to make room for Civale). But injuries have wreaked havoc on their depth this year: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Josh Fleming have all hit the 60-day IL, with only Fleming likely to return this year.

Something else strange is going on down on the Gulf Coast, too: the Rays’ bullpen has been atrocious. I half expected Google Docs to underline that sentence as incorrect, because this is part of the Tampa Bay mythos: pick some random relievers, sprinkle in some crazy arm angles, and bam: top-five bullpen. But instead it’s been a bottom-five bullpen, and that makes the starters’ jobs much harder. The Rays have fallen out of first place in the AL East, the Blue Jays are lurking not far behind; something had to change. Read the rest of this entry »

With the trade deadline just a day away, at last we reach the end of my annual series spotlighting the weakest positions on contenders. While still focusing upon teams that meet that loose definition (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

At the other positions in this series, I have used about 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — as my cutoff, making exceptions here and there, but for the designated hitters, I’ve lowered that to zero, both to keep the list length manageable and to account for the general spread of value. In the second full season of the universal DH, exactly half the teams in the majors have actually gotten 0.0 WAR or less from their DHs thus far, five are in the middle ground between 0.0 and 1.0, and 10 are at 1.0 or above. DHs as a group have hit .242/.321/.419 for a 102 wRC+; that last figure is up one point from last year. This year, we’re seeing a greater number teams invest more playing time in a single DH; where last year there were three players who reached the 500 plate appearance threshold as DHs, this year we’re on pace for five, and the same is true at the 400-PA threshold (on pace for nine this year, compared to seven last year) and 300-PA threshold (on pace for 15, compared to 12 last year). That said, many of the teams on this list are the ones that haven’t found that special someone to take the lion’s share of the plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »

Strength up the middle is important to any contender, but with so many teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot, it’s no surprise some of them are have some weak spots. Perhaps it’s easier for a team to convince itself that the metrics aren’t capturing the entirety of a weak-hitting player’s defense if they’re playing a premium position, which seems to be the case at both catcher and center fielder.

While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of their roster. Interestingly enough, two of the seven teams below the WAR cutoff for right field also make the list for left field: one because it’s far below, and the other because it’s right on the line. I’m listing the capsules in order of their left field rankings first while noting those two crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 1 deadline, but these are teams to keep an eye upon. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are through July 26, but team won-loss records and Playoff Odds are through July 27. Read the rest of this entry »

Today the Killers list turns the corner — or rather turns to the teams receiving less-than-acceptable production in the outfield corners. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of their roster. Interestingly enough, two of the seven teams below the WAR cutoff for right field also make the list for left field: one because it’s far below, and the other because it’s right on the line. I’m listing the capsules in order of their left field rankings first while noting those two crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 1 deadline, but these are teams to keep an eye upon. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are through July 25, but team won-loss records and Playoff Odds are through July 26. Read the rest of this entry »

Two former Mets are on the move from one playoff contender to another, with the Guardians trading Amed Rosario to the Dodgers in exchange for Noah Syndergaard and $2 million. The Dodgers receive a shortstop who, despite having a down year, adds a much-needed right-handed bat to their lineup. The Guardians receive a pitcher who had a 7.16 ERA before he landed on the IL nearly two months ago. In all, it makes for a seemingly lopsided challenge trade. Imagine going back to the fall of 2018 and explaining to yourself that a straight-up trade of Syndergaard for Rosario would seem a little light for the team receiving the former, but don’t actually do it, because your 2018 self’s head would explode, and you’d alter the space-time continuum.

The deal came into public consciousness on Wednesday evening piecemeal, via a flurry of tweets from several of baseball’s leading bombardiers. Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers reported that a deal for Rosario was approaching, Ken Rosenthal confirmed it, and Pat Ragazzo reported that Syndergaard would be the corresponding piece from Los Angeles. Jon Heyman was the first to indicate that the Dodgers were sending money to the Guardians, and Zack Meisel reported the amount. If you’re a news-breaker who didn’t get to announce the terms of at least one part of this trade, it might be time to get out of the game. Read the rest of this entry »

Today the Killers take a turn to the left side of the infield. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of a team’s roster. I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the August 1 deadline, and I’m less concerned with the solutions – many of which have more moving parts involved than a single trade — than the problems. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Monday. Read the rest of this entry »

If you remember my writing earlier this season about Brent Honeywell Jr.’s changeup-screwball combo or Hurston Waldrep’s splitter, you can probably imagine how much I love a weird-ass changeup-like thing. So much so I’m starting to wonder if it might be worth it to ask Meg for a “Weird-Ass Changeup World Tour” tag in the CMS.

Until then, consider Logan Allen. No, the other Logan Allen. The one who came back up from the minors to replace Shane Bieber in Cleveland’s rotation and completely barbecued the Pirates on Tuesday night. Seriously: Five innings, no runs, one hit, one walk, eight strikeouts. That’s some heavy stuff.

The key to Allen’s whole shtick is his changeup, which is unlike any other pitch in baseball. It’s slow, even by the standards of a pitch that’s defined by its slowness: just 82.9 mph on average, though since he doesn’t throw very hard by modern standards, that’s not as extreme a number as it seems on first glance. What is extreme is the way the pitch moves. Read the rest of this entry »

So here’s what happened. I was watching the MLB game highlights of Tuesday’s Marlins-Blue Jays matchup. I like MLB’s game highlights; in order to keep all the quick cuts from feeling disjointed, they kind of just plop some music on top everything unceremoniously, and sometimes the music can really color your perception of the game. This Mets-Padres game from April is a great example. It was a nailbiter, but it lost some of its nerve-wracking heft thanks to a soundtrack that’s a cross between John Coltrane, Kool & The Gang, and Super Mario 3.

Two on, two out, bottom of the ninth, and it sounds like the monologue is about to start on Saturday Night Live. Anyway, I was watching Tuesday’s Marlins-Jays highlights (the soundtrack for which sounds like The Living End on their union-mandated lunch break), and I noticed this single from Luis Arraez.

Normally, a single from Arraez is about the least remarkable thing in baseball. He is the game’s preeminent singles hitter (and depending on your worldview, perhaps the game’s preeminent hitter, period). What caught my eye was how quickly Daulton Varsho managed to cut this ball off, considering that Arraez slashed it just a foot inside the left field line. Varsho gets fantastic jumps, but I figured he also had to be playing extremely shallow. It occurred to me that maybe every outfielder is playing right on top of Arraez this year, seeing as dumping liners right in front of the outfielders for singles is his superpower. Read the rest of this entry »

The Guardians made a catching change heading into the weekend, designating veteran Mike Zunino for assignment and calling up prospect Bo Naylor from Triple-A Columbus to take his place. Zunino, signed this past offseason, hit .177/.271/.306 in 42 games in Cleveland, “good” enough for a 63 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR. Naylor, in his second go of Triple-A, is having a season similar to last one, hitting .254/.393/.498 with 13 homers in 60 games, giving him a wRC+ of 122.

Signed to a one-year, $6 million contract this past offseason, Zunino was never intended to be a long-term option for the Guardians. He’s always been a maddingly inconsistent hitter from year to year, oscillating between .850-OPS and .550-OPS seasons, and he missed nearly half of 2022 due to thoracic outlet syndrome. But the hope was that he’d be good enough to hold down the fort long enough for Naylor to get more time behind the plate in the minors.

Zunino’s offense didn’t initially seem all that crucial to his continued employment. Over the last decade, Cleveland has been more than happy to employ catchers who struggle with the bat, so long as said catcher was at least more than competent defensively. The last time Cleveland’s backstops combined for a wRC+ of even 90 was 2014, during the early stages of the Yan Gomes residency. This was a noted shift from the previous decade, when the organization took the opposite approach, with defensively challenged catchers like Victor Martinez and Carlos Santana making their money with their bats. Despite the absymal offense, if Zunino’s defense this season had been at the levels of his time with the Mariners, Naylor would still be hanging out in the state capital. Read the rest of this entry »