In the second of a six-part series — you can see the AL East here — I’ll be highlighting each team’s most notable free agents and how it could fill the resulting void on the roster. A player’s rank on our recently released Top 50 Free Agents list, along with Kiley McDaniel’s contract estimates from that exercise, are listed where relevant. In some cases, the team already has a capable replacement ready to step in. In others, it’s clear the team will either attempt to re-sign their player or look to the trade or free agent markets for help. The remaining cases are somewhere in between, with in-house candidates who might be the answer, but aren’t such obvious everyday players to keep the team from shopping around for better options.

Here’s a look at the American League Central.

Chicago White Sox | Depth Chart | Payroll

Jose Abreu, 1B/DH
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 44
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 1 year, $11M

Andrew Vaughn, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 amateur draft and the White Sox’s first baseman of the future, isn’t likely to need much time down on the farm. But it’s rare that any prospect, even one as advanced at the plate as the 21-year-old Vaughn, doesn’t spend at least one full season in the minors. Therefore, the White Sox will require a stopgap at first base in 2020 and have already taken a necessary step to keeping Abreu around for at least one more season.

The 32-year-old was tendered a qualifying offer, which will hurt his value if he wants to test the free agent waters. He could just settle for the one-year, $17.8 million contract or work out a long-term deal that would ensure he’s around to mentor the next wave of prospects, which could include Vaughn, second baseman Nick Madrigal, and outfielders Luis Robert and Luis Alexander Basabe, all who could arrive during the next two seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Area Scout

Primary Purpose
Provide high-quality information on amateur players to prepare the organization for acquisition opportunities

Essential Responsibilities and Duties

• Relationships: Create and maintain strong relationships with players and their families, along with coaches and programs, to understand the player’s background and character.
• Evaluations: Provide player evaluations and rankings by using organization’s scouting principles
• Scheduling: Through preparation and prioritization, maximize opportunities for information collection
• Data Collection: Lead a thorough data collection effort on the player pool

How will they get it done?

• Info: Capture and document info quickly on players
• Communication: Consistently communicate with internal stakeholders to lead and execute the scouting process
• Teamwork: Commit to doing what’s best for the organization and acquiring the best players for the org

Leadership, Management, Development Responsibilities

• Management: Manage and lead a scouting process within the area on amateur players within a network around them
• Leadership: The organization will provide tools, resources and exposure for growth as an emerging leader
• Development Responsibilities: The organization offers resources dedicated to personal development through leaders, research and processes.

Goals/Objectives for the Position

• Player Pool: Cultivate a robust and well-rounded understanding of the player pool by using all available information and dynamically updating evaluations
• Org Philosophies: Learn and understand organizational philosophies to accurately assess what’s happening and why/how
• Feedback: Seek out feedback and use available resources to fuel development and increase understanding of players

Background
A demonstrated track record of curiosity and continuous improvement in the game, regardless of experience

Skills

• Baseball Acumen: An understanding of the evaluation process. A technical proficiency in player assessment
• Emotional Intelligence: Ability to manage emotions and time
• Communication: Clearly and concisely explain thoughts verbally and in writing
• Work Ethic: A relentless drive to collect more and better information
• Passion: Demonstrate a clear passion for the game, teammates, the organization and learning
• Resourcefulness: Utilize organizational resources to develop and understand organizational philosophies
• Self-awareness: Understand your skill set, understand your biases, recognize your areas of development
• Strategic Thinking: Employ a problem-solving mindset and strategic thinking

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application, which can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Indians.

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions.

Position Title: Data Scientist

Department: Baseball Research & Development

Primary Purpose:
The Cleveland Indians are seeking a data scientist to join the team’s Baseball Research and Development group. The data scientist will use their machine learning expertise and the Indians proprietary data to develop statistical and machine learning models that support baseball operations decisions across all facets of the organization. This position will work closely with other members of the R&D department as well as key stakeholders across the organization to design and build cutting edge models and tools that help the Indians stay ahead of the competition. The ideal candidate will possess experience working with large data sets and advanced machine-learning models. Strong applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and the ability to learn new concepts.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

• Research, design, test, and deploy machine learning models to support all aspects of Baseball Operations
• Work with high-dimensional spatio-temporal data and other large data sets
• Share technical expertise with other members of department; communicate findings to Baseball Operations staff
• Maintain an understanding of emerging data science tools and research, as well as potential new data sources and technology options

Role Requirements and Preferences:

• Education & Experience Requirements
• Advanced degree and/or demonstrated work experience in a quantitative field (i.e. computer science, statistics, engineering, mathematics)
• Experience with a variety of modeling and statistical techniques, such as neural nets, deep learning, support vector machines, gradient boosting, adversarial learning, and computer vision
• Expertise with statistical programming languages (e.g. R, Python)
• Proficiency in a database language (e.g. SQL)

Preferred Experience:

• Experience with one or more ML libraries such as Tensorflow, Keras, scikit-learn, Theano, Spark MLib, H2O
• Experience creating data visualizations with tools such as ggplot, d3.js, Matplotlib and/or Tableau
• Experience working with baseball data
• Experience with computer vision, particularly image segmentation, object detection, and tracking algorithms

Standard Requirements:

• Reads, speaks, comprehends and communicates English effectively in all communications.
• Represents the Cleveland Indians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
• Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
• Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
• Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
• Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
• Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
• Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
• Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
• Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25lbs.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

Position Title: Sports Science Analyst

Department: Baseball Research & Development

Primary Purpose:
The Cleveland Indians are seeking an analyst to join the team’s Baseball Research and Development group with a focus on answering questions specific to sports science. The position will use data and statistics to provide research and analysis to support the Indians’ player development, medical, S&C, and sports science staff in helping Indians players perform at optimal levels. This individual will work closely with other analysts in the R&D department as well as sports science, player development, medical, strength & conditioning, and other staff members across the organization. The ideal candidate will possess a strong foundation in statistics and/or data science, the ability to effectively communicate findings to colleagues in non-technical roles, and a passion for learning more about baseball. Strong applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and the ability to learn new concepts.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

• Analyze and interpret baseball data with a focus on sports science
• Research, build, test, and deploy statistical models to support Baseball Operations
• Design and implement research studies to improve organizational knowledge in sports science
• Visualize data in concise, readable formats for non-technical staff members
• Communicate research findings to key stakeholders across the organization
• Work with sports science, strength & conditioning, and medical departments to capture player performance data
• Evaluate and recommend new data sources and technologies

Role Requirements and Preferences

Education & Experience Requirements:

• Bachelor’s degree or demonstrated work experience in a quantitative field such as statistics, mathematics, computer science, operations research, economics, or data science
• Demonstrated ability to solve problems in a data-driven way
• Creativity to brainstorm new avenues of research
• Demonstrated passion for baseball analytics and/or sports science.
• Proficiency in at least one statistical programming language (e.g. R, Python)
• Proficiency in a database language (e.g. SQL)
• Ability to communicate research findings and other technical concepts to non-technical audiences

Preferred Experience:

• Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics and publicly available research
• Advanced degree in a quantitative field
• Experience working with baseball data
• Experience with data visualization
• Experience with experimental design and/or causal inference

Standard Requirements:

• Reads, speaks, comprehends and communicates English effectively in all communications.
• Represents the Cleveland Indians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
• Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
• Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
• Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
• Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
• Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
• Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
• Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
• Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25lbs.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Indians.

This is the fourth installment of this year’s Team Entropy series, my recurring look not only at the races for the remaining playoff spots but the potential for end-of-season chaos in the form of down-to-the-wire suspense and even tiebreakers. Ideally, we want more ties than the men’s department at Macy’s. If you’re new to this, please read the introduction here.

The final weekend of the 2019 season is upon us, and while five of the divisions and all of the super-complicated tiebreaker scenarios are off the table, with three games to play, each league has multiple scenarios that could result in at least one tiebreaker game. Seven hundred or so words is worth a picture, so first, behold this:

Read the rest of this entry »

With just over a week to go in the regular season, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are running neck and neck as favorites for the American League Cy Young award. Verlander leads the league in innings (212) and ERA (2.50). Cole has the lead in strikeouts with 302 with Verlander 19 behind. Even after accounting for Verlander’s 34 homers, his 3.28 FIP is still one of the best marks in the league. On Cole’s side are the strikeouts, a league-leading 2.78 FIP and a 6.7 WAR half a win clear of Verlander. Several other pitchers, like Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn, boast strong resumes, and with five slots on voters’ ballots, many pitchers will receive down-ballot consideration worthy of discussion.

While awards voting is a mostly objective process, when trying to differentiate between a group of very good pitchers, personal preferences are likely to play into the selections. When voters rely on particular stats, be it FIP, ERA, or some other metric, they are making decisions about the importance of defense, park, opponent, and how much talent a big league pitcher is expected to exhibit when it comes to contact quality. Before we get to all of those issues, let’s identify the candidates. There’s a fairly clear top seven among AL starting pitchers (Liam Hendriks might deserve some consideration as well) with Eduardo Rodriguez also included due to his rank based on Baseball-Reference’s WAR.

Here are the eight pitchers under consideration, with some traditional and more advanced statistics:

A look above shows Gerrit Cole leading in the more advanced statistics, with Verlander gaining the nod from traditional metrics, and Lance Lynn and Charlie Morton sort of splitting the difference between the two Astros. Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito are a bit behind, with Giolito unable to add anything to his file after being shut down for the season. Mike Minor’s case is made by his low ERA combined with his difficult park, as his strikeouts and walks lag behind the other candidates. Eduardo Rodriguez is the poor man’s version of Minor.

If we looked at FanGraphs WAR, we’d see Cole as the leader due to his incredible strikeout rate and ability to limit homers, at least somewhat. Though he has a 20-inning deficit compared to Verlander, the strikeouts and homers make enough of a difference for Cole to take the day. Verlander and Lynn are in a dead heat when it comes to WAR, with the huge difference in home runs balancing Verlander’s lead in strikeouts and walks and Lynn’s more difficult park in which to keep balls in the field of play. Comparing Lynn to Morton, we see Morton with the homer advantage, but the innings deficit, combined with Tampa Bay being a hard park to homer in, gives Lynn the edge. Read the rest of this entry »

On September 19, 2018, Carlos Santana was in the Phillies’ lineup, playing third base. It was an experiment that sparked speculation about his role in Philadelphia going forward. After all, he had just signed a three-year, $60 million contract. But after Rhys Hoskins had one of the worst defensive seasons by a left fielder this decade, it was clear that Santana’s usage would need to be adjusted. Having him play first — thus relegating Hoskins to the outfield — would not work long term, especially for a team trying to contend.

Santana’s brief stay in Philadelphia was mixed. He drew walks in 16.2% of his plate appearances, hit for power at about his then-career-average, and was about average defensively. With that information, you’d probably think that Santana had a good year, but reality was different. He was BABIP’d to death; no qualified hitter in 2018 posted a lower BABIP than Santana’s .231. His slash sat at .229/.352/.414 with a 108 wRC+, a decent-yet-unspectacular season. He also made headlines this past March when it was reported that, near the end of the 2018 season, he had smashed a clubhouse TV after witnessing his now-former teammates playing Fortnite during games.

The Phillies went on to have a memorable offseason, to say the least. They signed Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson. They traded for J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura. Once all of the dust settled, Carlos Santana was no longer wearing red and white pinstripes. The seemingly tumultuous relationship lasted one season. Santana was back in Cleveland, the same place where he had spent the first eight seasons of his major league career. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cleveland Indians front office places a high value on organizational culture. From the lowest rungs of the minors to the big leagues, they want their managers, coaches, and players to embrace both a collaborative process and a forward-thinking mindset. For that reason, they also highly value leadership skills. Luke Carlin, a 38-year-old former big-league catcher with a Bachelor of Science degree from Northeastern University, possesses those attributes in spades.

Carlin has managed in the Cleveland system for each of the past four seasons, most recently the Lake County Captains in the Low-A Midwest League. He’s viewed by many as a future major league coach or manager, and his interpersonal skills, paired with an unquenchable thirst for knowledge — analytics-based and otherwise — is a big reasons why. In a nutshell, he exemplifies what one might dub, “The Cleveland Way.”

Carlin shared his thoughts on leadership and teaching following the conclusion of the Captains’ season.

———

Luke Carlin: “To me, managing and player development go hand in hand. I’m passionate about teaching, and it’s an awesome feeling when you have a clubhouse firing on all cylinders and pulling in the same direction. When you’re trying to earn the trust of the team, it’s not just interpersonal skills; it’s also a bunch of content-based stuff. Can you get the guys better? Can you help them develop? I think that really clicks within the information-rich environment that players today are coming up in.

“I’m finishing my master’s right now, at Northeastern, in organizational leadership. And it’s not just leadership theory, but also organizational-behavior theory and team dynamics. Piggyback that with what I’m learning here with the Indians. There are biomechanics, motor learning, teaching-and-coaching pedagogy… we’re basically trying to create a recipe to where we can interact with the people around us, and do a better job of developing high-performance than everyone else. Read the rest of this entry »

September call-ups, both high-profile and totally innocuous, have been trickling in over the transaction wire for the last several days. As always, there are some who will have real impact on the playoff race and some who are interesting for the purposes of player evaluation, like your usual spare lefty reliever and catcher (by far the most common types of September additions). Some teams with no new names at all. Below I’ve compiled notes on every player brought up by an American League team since the start of the month, no matter how inconsequential; I’ve slipped some rehabbers and August 31 acquisitions in here, too. It’s a primer for you to get (re)acquainted with players who might impact the playoff race or the seasons to come. (The National League’s complement can be found here.)

Contenders’ Reinforcements

Houston Astros– OF Kyle Tucker, C Garrett Stubbs, RHP Josh James, RHP Jose Urquidy

Kiley and I have Tucker projected as an above-average regular, ranked 15th overall among prospects in baseball. I have no idea what kind of playing time he might get this month. Stubbs (24th in the org) has begun playing a little bit of second base and outfield. A part time, multi-positional role might help keep his tiny frame from breaking down, and enable Houston to get his long-performing bat in the lineup, as well as create flexibility on other parts of the roster.

James was 94-97 in rehab outings before he returned, then reached 99 on Monday. Urquidy projects as a strike-throwing fifth starter.

New York Yankees– OF Clint Frazier, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Ryan Dull, RHP Chance Adams, LHP Tyler Lyons, INF Brenny Escanio (prospect)

I think it’s likely Frazier, who many scouts/teams continue to think has everyday ability, gets traded this offseason, both because he’s part of a crowded outfield/DH mix and because he and the org don’t seem to be a great fit. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2019 Arizona Fall League rosters were (mostly) announced today, and we’ve created a tab on THE BOARD where you can see all the prospects headed for extra reps in the desert. These are not comprehensive Fall League rosters — you can find those on the AFL team pages — but a compilation of names of players who are already on team pages on THE BOARD. The default view of the page has players hard-ranked through the 40+ FV tier. The 40s and below are then ordered by position, with pitchers in each tier listed from most likely to least likely to start. In the 40 FV tier, everyone south of Alex Lange is already a reliever.

Many participating players, especially pitchers, have yet to be announced. As applicable prospects are added to rosters in the coming weeks, I’ll add them to the Fall League tab and tweet an update from the FanGraphs Prospects Twitter account. Additionally, this tab will be live throughout the Fall League and subject to changes (new tool grades, updated scouting reports, new video, etc.) that will be relevant for this offseason’s team prospect lists. We plan on shutting down player/list updates around the time minor league playoffs are complete (which is very soon) until we begin to publish 2020 team-by-team prospect lists, but the Fall League tab will be an exception. If a player currently on the list looks appreciably different to me in the AFL, I’ll update their scouting record on that tab, and I may add players I think we’re light on as I see them. Again, updates will be posted on the FanGraphs Prospects Twitter account, and I’ll also compile those changes in a weekly rundown similar to those we ran on Fridays during the summer.

Anything you’d want to know about individual players in this year’s crop of Fall Leaguers can probably be found over on THE BOARD right now. Below are some roster highlights as well as my thoughts on who might fill out the roster ranks.

Glendale Desert Dogs
The White Sox have an unannounced outfield spot on the roster that I think may eventually be used on OF Micker Adolfo, who played rehab games in Arizona late in the summer. He’s on his way back from multiple elbow surgeries. Rehabbing double Achilles rupturee Jake Burger is age-appropriate for the Fall League, but GM Rick Hahn mentioned in July that Burger might go to instructs instead. Sox instructs runs from September 21 to October 5, so perhaps he’ll be a mid-AFL add if that goes well and they want to get him more at-bats, even just as a DH. Non-BOARD prospects to watch on this roster include Reds righties Diomar Lopez (potential reliever, up to 95) and Jordan Johnson, who briefly looked like a No. 4 or 5 starter type during his tenure with San Francisco, but has been hurt a lot since, as have Brewers lefties Nathan Kirby (Thoracic Outlet Syndrome) and Quintin Torres-Costa (Tommy John). Dodgers righty Marshall Kasowski has long posted strong strikeout rates, but the eyeball scouts think he’s on the 40-man fringe. Read the rest of this entry »

After struggling for the first few months of the season, both José Ramírez and Cleveland broke out in a big way with Ramírez discovering his old form and Cleveland going on a big run to catch the Minnesota Twins for first place at one point this month. Cleveland couldn’t quite keep up that pace over the last few weeks, falling a few games back of the Twins, but still looked to be in great shape for the wild card race. With news of a broken hamate bone and the resulting surgery for Ramírez, the team is losing their best hitter for the rest of the season, leaving a massive hole in the lineup and at third base. The club’s path to the playoffs just got a lot more narrow.

Just two weeks ago, I discussed the remarkable turnaround Ramírez made in his game, eschewing an approach designed to be beat the shift but costing him power and going back to the pull-heavy, fastball-hunting approach that made him a star in the first place. In the second half of the season, Ramírez has put up a 168 wRC+ to go with 2.3 WAR that ranks behind only Anthony Rendon, José Altuve, Mike Trout, and Ketel Marte among position players. On the season, Ramírez had finally moved his wRC+ up to 100, and with solid baserunning and fielding, he was up to 2.9 WAR on the season. These totals are a huge drop from the 6.4-WAR average he produced over the three previous seasons, but 2019 was still shaping up to be a productive year despite his awful start. Unfortunately, Ramírez isn’t likely to get any more time to improve his numbers further.

One month of any one player isn’t likely to matter a whole lot to a team’s playoff chances over the course of an entire season, but when there’s only 31 games left and the player in question was set to be worth a full win over those 31 days and his substitutes are replacement level, that month can matter a great deal. To provide some sense of what Cleveland loses in terms of projections and playoff odds, here’s where the club stood after Saturday’s games compared to where they stand now with Ramírez’s injury factored in. Read the rest of this entry »