By torching the Appy League during his first pro summer, Gorman laid to rest any concerns that his whiff-prone pre-draft spring was anything more than a hiccup caused by the whiplash of going from facing elite, showcase high schoolers (who he crushed) to soft-tossing, Arizona varsity pitchers. He struck out a lot (again) during the 2018 stretch run, when St. Louis pushed him to Low-A Peoria because he wasn’t being challenged in Johnson City. Sent back to Peoria for the first half of 2019, Gorman adjusted to full-season pitching and roasted the Midwest League to the tune of a .241/.344/.448 line, cutting his strikeout rate by eight percentage points. He was promoted to the Florida State League for the second half, and while his walk rate halved and his strikeout rate crept above 30% again, Gorman still managed to post an above-average line for that league as a 19-year-old. The strikeout issues will only become a real concern once Gorman stops showing an ability to adjust over a long period of time.

His huge power, derived from his imposing physicality and explosive hand speed, is likely to play in games because of the lift in Gorman’s swing and his feel for impacting the ball in the air. Because we’re talking about a teenager of considerable size, there’s a chance Gorman has to move off of third base at some point, but for now we’re cautiously optimistic about him staying there for the early part of his big league tenure. There are apt body comps to be made to either of the Seager brothers, while the offensive profile looks more like Miguel Sanó‘s.

A year ago, on the Cardinals list and in our Picks to Click article, we tabbed Carlson as one of the prospects in this org likely to break out. But even we didn’t expect he’d nearly go 20/20 and slug .518 at Double-A Springfield. Judging by the fervor this performance created among our more fantasy-focused readers, they may be wondering why we were ahead of the curve a year ago, but aren’t hitting the gas on Carlson’s evaluation now after the year he had. We certainly like him — Carlson is balanced and coordinated while hitting from both sides of the plate, his left-handed swing has gorgeous lift and finish, he has advanced bat control for a switch-hitter this age, he’s athletic and moves well for his size, and he has high-end makeup. But we have some questions about the ultimate ceiling.

Carlson is an average runner and a large dude for a 20-year-old. His instincts in center field are okay, but not good enough to overcome long speed that typically falls short at the position. Because of where we have his arm strength graded, we think he fits in left field or at first base. The TrackMan data we sourced also indicates that his 2019 line is a bit of a caricature. His average exit velo (about 88 mph) and rate of balls in play at 95 mph or higher (about 34%) are both right around the big league average, rather than exceptional. The in-office types we talk to about this kind of thing are in love with Carlson because he’s only 20, and they anticipate these things will improve, but visual evaluation of his build don’t suggest as much physical projection as is typical of someone this young, because he’s already a big guy. As a result, he was on the 50/55 FV line for us during the process of compiling this list. The league-average offensive production in left field has been lower than you might expect (it’s 100 wRC+ over the last five years) and Carlson might also be able to play a situational center field when the Cards are behind and need offense, as well as some first base. That versatility is valuable, so he tipped into the 55 FV range. But we think he’s closer to the line than one might conclude if they were just looking at his surface stats.

With January’s trade with Tampa Bay, the Cardinals rolled some of their seemingly unending, upper-level outfield depth into Libby, That means that between him and childhood friend Nolan Gorman, the Cardinals, who picked 19th in the 2018 draft, now have two of the players most teams had in the top five to seven spots on their pre-draft boards in the system.

Because Liberatore’s fastball has sinker movement, the growth of his changeup is going to be the most important aspect of his development, since those two pitches have similar movement, and will theoretically tunnel better. The results produced by his knockout curveball, which has all-world depth, may suffer because he doesn’t have an up-in-the-zone four-seamer to pair with it, but should Liberatore decide to get ahead of hitters by dumping that curveball into the zone, good luck to them. It’s the type of pitch that’s hard to hit even if you know it’s coming, but might be easy to lay off of, in the dirt, because its Loch Ness Monster hump is easy to identify out of the hand. All of the advanced pitchability stuff — Libby started learning a slider during his senior year of high school, he varies his timing home, and he’s likely to pitch backwards with the breaking balls — is here, too, and that’ll be important given the lack of a bat-missing fastball. The total package should result in an above-average big league starter.

When we began sourcing data on the Cardinals system, we weren’t aware of a max exit velocity for a teenager in excess of 109 mph (Kristian Robinson, Marco Luciano, Luis Toribio) — until we learned of Herrera’s. It was surprising considering Herrera is physically quite modest, and looked sluggish at times during the Fall league, but by that point he had played in three times as many games as he had the year before, and was likely exhausted. Regular season Herrera was a little leaner, twitchy, and athletic, and was an advanced defender with a mature approach at the plate. He also hit .286/.381/.423 as a 19-year-old catcher in the Midwest League. This guy checks all the proverbial boxes and looks like a well-rounded everyday catching prospect.

Arguably the most talented college arm in the 2019 draft, Thompson fell, at least in part, because of injury issues speckled throughout his amateur career. He was used pretty conservatively in a bullpen role after he signed for workload/health reasons, but expect the Cardinals to push him to the upper levels next year, as they often do with recently-drafted college arms.

The headline pitch here is the curveball, a deadly, mid-70s parabola much like Liberatore’s. Like Libby, Thompson’s fastball traits don’t fit perfectly with it and it probably won’t matter very much. The changeup is already quite good, a likely second out-pitch. Thompson gets down the mound well, his arm action is loose (though it comes through a little late), and he has east/west command of all his stuff. He’s a concerning injury risk, but has top 100 stuff.

Knizner’s 2019 was a great example of how the convergence of the PCL’s hitting environment and lively big league baseball affected statistics at that level. His .276/.357/.463 line was only good enough for a 99 wRC+, the lowest of his career. Long a contact-oriented doubles hitter with a very compact stroke, Knizner is perhaps not the sort of hitter who would have greatly benefitted from a bouncier ball. He’s still a much better hitter than most big league catchers, but he’s a bad receiver. For the last two years, we were hopeful Knizner would become a passable defender, if later than most, because he only started catching in his early 20s, but it still hasn’t happened. He and Yadier Molina are the only two catchers currently on the Cardinals’ 40-man, so it looks like he’s slated for some kind of timeshare, at least for his rookie season, the last of Yadi’s contract.

His value may be impacted by the implementation of robot umps, which would make Knizner poor receiving moot, but would also put more pressure on him to hit for some power since suddenly every gloveless backstop who can hit will suddenly be viable back there. Knizner’s bat-to-ball skills should make him a second-division regular in that scenario.

We’ve gone from thinking Cabrera was a high-probability middle relief piece with a shot at pitching high-leverage or multiple innings, to thinking either of those outcomes is likely, and that he has a shot at pitching in St. Louis’ rotation. He has premium lefty velocity, and two usable secondaries. In a vacuum, we prefer Cabrera’s changeup to his breaking ball, but his delivery is violent and deceptive, featuring a huge hook in the back (the flexibility in Cabrera’s upper back is incredible) and a huge stride home before the ball suddenly appears from a high three-quarters slot.

In 2017, the Cardinals traded away some of their international pool space for minor leaguers, including Thomas, who had a breakout 2018 at the plate. A high school shortstop, Thomas got a $750,000 bonus to sign with Toronto as a fifth rounder in 2014. He played some second and third base and outfield for the Jays before moving off the dirt entirely in 2017, and he’s quickly become a very good center field defender. He couldn’t quite repeat that 2018 burst — a .264/.333/.489 line between Double and Triple-A, including more home runs (27) than in his previous four seasons combined — in a 2019 shortened by a fractured wrist, but Thomas has good plate coverage that enables a pull-heavy approach, has mostly doubles power, and is fairly selective, and because he’s such a good center field defender, we think he’s a second-division regular there.

After Torres, who was acquired from Cleveland for Oscar Mercado during the summer of 2018, paved over rookie ball, the Cardinals skipped him over two levels, sending him right from the complex to Low-A in early-May. He struggled, striking out nearly 40% of the time, and after a couple of weeks the Cards hit the breaks and sent him down to Johnson City for the remainder of the summer. Torres bounced back in a huge way, and hit .286/.391/.527 in the Tennessee humidity.

This is a traditional, corner outfield projection prospect. Torres is an immense teenager built much like Franmil Reyes was at the same age. Torres has a chance to grow into similar power as he fills out, though hopefully he stays a little more agile than Reyes and is able to play better outfield defense. Some of the swing elements (how long the barrel is in the zone, the stride length) may need to change to max out the game power, but there’s middle-of-the-order thump here.

Fletcher emerged very early in the recruiting/scouting process as an elite prospect due to a power/speed combination that is rare, especially coming from Maine. He played at East Coast Pro, a major summer showcase, as an older-for-the-class member of the 2020 class, playing against 2019 prospects. He played well and reclassified to the 2019 class in March of that year after switching high schools. Clubs weren’t prepared and hadn’t scouted Fletcher intensely, with only a few months of rain-filled Maine high school games versus weak competition to make what was potentially a seven figure decision. Between having Scott Boras as his agent, a strong commitment to Vanderbilt, and the off-field drama surrounding his eligibility, some teams punted on Fletcher because they couldn’t get enough info to be comfortable by draft day.

The Cardinals were not one of those teams, but both they and more casually-engaged clubs saw flashes of plus raw power, speed, and arm strength. St. Louis popped him in the second round for an overslot $1.5 million deal and pushed him to the Appy League after nine good GCL games to get him under the lights and in a more professional game atmosphere, where Fletcher struggled a bit. The ceiling is sky high but we don’t have much reliable data, so the variance is very high at this point, too.

Finally, a healthy season for Fernandez, who pitched across four levels, including the big leagues, in 2019. He has two big league bat-missers in his upper-90s fastball and upper-80s changeup. The changeup doesn’t even need to be located toward the bottom of the zone to be effective since hitters, who are geared up for the heater, are so flummoxed by its speed and movement. You’ll see him freeze hitters with cambios near the top of the zone, and the pitch might be so dominant that Fernandez will be able to pitch high-leverage innings.

Oviedo looks the part of a mid-rotation starter. He’s a hulking 6-foot-6, body comps to a young Josh Beckett, throws hard, and flashes an above-average curveball and changeup. All of these components are present intermittently, but Oviedo just hasn’t leveled up as a strike-thrower yet. Unless his walk rates come down a little bit, he won’t be able to start. If he can’t, we’re hoping his fastball velo ticks up out of the bullpen so he has greater margin for error in the zone. We have him valued around where we had Alec Hansen valued coming out of college.

He doesn’t have Kolten Wong’s range, but in all other aspects of infield defense — hands, actions, arm utility — Sosa is the best defender on St. Louis’ 40-man. He projects as a versatile infield utility man.

Multiple wrist injuries made it impossible for Montero’s 2019 to get off the ground, so toss out his lousy 60-game Double-A statline. His body looked great in the Fall League, and he still has a shot to stay at third base long-term because he’s kept what used to be a big, softer body in check.

His approach, however, is a problem. During some of his Fall League starts, Montero saw five pitches over the course of an entire game. During the regular season, he averaged just shy of 2.5 pitches per plate appearance. For comparison’s sake, among big league hitters with at least 200 PAs in 2019, Willians Astudillo ranked last in pitchers per PA with 2.9; no other big leaguer was under three. From a hitting talent perspective — the bat speed, primarily — Montero has everyday upside, so he belongs ranked ahead of prospects who project to be lesser role players at best. But we’re weary of how swing-happy he is and think, at the very least, there will be growing pains as he climbs the minors and is forced to adjust to big league pitching.

Whitley and his Josh Collmenter-style delivery carved the upper levels in 2019, posting a 1.60 ERA mostly at Double- and Triple-A. He had a velocity uptick during the summer (93-96, touch 98) but it was down a bit during Whitley’s Fall League stint (more 92-93, touch 94 or 95). He lives at the top of the strike zone and gets his swings and misses there, while his secondary stuff gets help from his delivery, which puzzles opposing hitters. He has worked multiple innings, working against seven hitters over two frames when things go smoothly for him, but for now, we have him projected as being a good middle relief piece very soon, and maybe more if that peak velo comes back and sticks.

Locey had a rocky end of high school and beginning of college at Georgia, but emerged in a big way in 2019 as the most dependable starter for the Bulldogs down the stretch, ahead of banged-up possible 2020 first overall pick Emerson Hancock. Locey would hold mid-90s velo late into games, hitting 97 regularly and landing a solid average breaking ball that dev-minded folks in baseball think has more ceiling. His control is fine, but the command and changeup were both weaker points in a starting role, so relief is a natural fit without a change to that profile. His aggressive, bulldog approach is also conducive to shorter stints.

Baker’s amateur career was bedeviled by freak injuries — a left arm fracture and ligament and muscle tear, a few missed games after taking a bad hop to the face, a fractured fibula and torn ankle ligament while sliding into second base — which likely snuffed out our chances of watching him play two ways at TCU. Because Baker is the size of one of the Easter Island Moai statues, there’s some Zion Williamson-ish fear about his athletic longevity. But he has monstrous raw power and has performed when healthy (we’re not sweating a .390 SLG in the Florida State League), so he has a fair chance to hit at least enough to be a CJ Cron, Jesús Aguilar sort of performer.

Woodford was a widely-known prep prospect because he was teammates with Kyle Tucker at Plant. He was a sandwich rounder who fell off our lists as his fastball velocity ticked down (91-93, touch 95 around draft time, then 88-92 in the following few years) but has returned here (and to the 40-man) now that the velo’s not only back, but at times harder than its ever been. He’s a kitchen sink righty with below average control, a backend starter who needs a long relief partner.

Traded from Atlanta in exchange for Matt Adams, Yepez was a heavy-bodied, power-hitting prospect who’s passable at a few positions. His best fit is probably first base, but with a remade body, he also saw meaningful time at all four corners last year, which helps his likely big league profile of a lefty-mashing extra bat. Yepez’s calling card is his plus raw power, but he’s been dialing in his offensive approach to make more contact. He’s one of a number of corner-only righty power bats in the system with Baker, Montero, and Nunez.

This is the player in the system about whom the scouts and data most disagree. Scouts see an unathletic infielder, arguably positionless, without the power to make up for his defensive issues. But on paper, Urias has a .270/.360/.420 career line in the minors — after two DSL seasons with Texas, Urias’ rights were loaned and then sold outright to Diablos Rojos in Mexico City, where he hit .318/.402/.467 over five seasons before the Cardinals came calling in the spring of 2018 — and he’s hit well for two consecutive years at Double and Triple-A. His TrackMan data is strong (91 mph average exit velo, 47% of balls in play at 95 mph or more), and he plays an up-the-middle position. He’s an interesting sleeper, though we acknowledge there’s no margin for error here. Urias can only really play second base passably as he lacks the arm strength for the left side. He’ll either hit enough to be an everyday second baseman, or he won’t and will be very difficult to roster.

Mateo is the son of former big league infielder Benji Gil and, despite not being on the showcase circuit much in high school, looks primed to carve out a big league career as well. He’s a shortstop for now, but could slide over to second or third depending on how his body develops. He closed 2019 strong and his exit velos were also above average for his age and level. There may not be a plus tool on the card, but Gil has low-end regular upside.

Initially a bit of an afterthought (in our minds, anyway) in the Tommy Pham trade with Tampa Bay, Ramirez had a great 2019 as a multi-inning reliever at Double-A Springfield. He has the repertoire depth to pitch in that role in the big leagues, but his fastball has cut action rather than ride/carry, so it accidentally runs into barrels. That might be problematic, but on arm strength and the pitch mix, he’s pretty clearly a valuable long relief type.

Nunez became famous back in 2018 when he posted a god-like .415/.497/.774 line with 31 extra-base hits in 44 DSL games. He was bigger and stronger than most of the kids down there, so the industry was ultra-skeptical of that line. After a little time in Florida, two months after he turned 18, St. Louis sent him to Low-A to stress test the bat. Nunez flopped and was demoted to the Appy League later in the summer. He’s a big-bodied, projectionless, 1B/DH prospect who needs to mash all the way up the ladder.

A fourth round pick by Seattle in 2017, Elledge was traded to the Cardinals for Sam Tuivailala just over a year after he was drafted. He profiles as a two-pitch middle reliever.

Romeri was a slightly-over-slot 12th round pick in 2019 from a loaded IMG Academy prep squad that included Brennan Malone (first round), and Rece Hinds and Kendall Williams (both second round). Romeri was so below the radar on that team that many scouts didn’t have him turned in despite watching him numerous times on what was likely the most-scouted high school team in the country. The seventh hole hitter on a high school team is not usually where you find a prospect; He wasn’t on our pre-draft rankings either. Romeri is a solid average runner and thrower who profiles in right field, and his exit velos and OPS both stood out in his pro debut in the GCL. There’s a faint chance for a low-end regular but he’ll more likely profile as a part-time player.

Pallante was young for a college draftee (just 20 on draft day), and had a strong, two-year track record of starting at Irvine. He threw on the Cape and for Team USA, so he’d been seen by most everyone and wasn’t subject to the anti-small school bias. He has four pitches, including two quality breaking balls and a fastball that might play a little better than its velocity. He has a backend shot.

A $300,000 signee from 2017, Cruz has a traditional corner outfield profile. He has a projectable 6-foot-3 frame and a swing geared to lift the ball to his pull side. He could grow into plus, playable power; he’s likely a left field-only fit, so he’ll need to. He missed almost all of 2019 due to injury.

Gingery had Tommy John in March of 2018 before he was drafted, and finally took a pro mound in late-July of last year. He was 87-91, up to 92 in his lone outing before he blew out again and required a second TJ. Healthy Gingery had a nasty changeup and advanced command. He projected as a backend starter.

When the Cardinals signed Cruz, he was 21 and pitching for Sultanes de Monterrey in Mexico. He’s serviceable, non-40-man upper-level depth for now. His current control is likely a barrier to a solid, middle inning relief role, but Cruz has real stuff and we like him in an up-and-down role.

A downward bat path long undercut Williams’ in-game power despite his considerable raw juice. He had the second-highest average exit velo in this system and the lowest average launch angle, and this with a swing that’s better than it was two years ago. He has a shot to break out if there’s a relevant swing change; if not, a bench role is going to be tough to grab hold of because of the lack of other skills.

Roberts had one of the best breaking balls in the entire 2018 class, a two-plane Wiffle ball slider that was at least a plus pitch on draft day. But his stuff was down last year amid a weed suspension, and he’s already almost 24. What looked like a lock to be a quick-moving, breaking ball-heavy reliever now requires a bounce back.

Jones had a storied if somewhat tumultuous amateur career (he was an early-round prospect in high school but, like many after him, was convinced to go to UVA) that included a National Title and several fluctuations in the quality of his stuff. He’s now a sinkerball reliever (63% groundball rate).

Part of the Liberatore/Arozarena/José Martínez trade, Rodriguez was injured for almost all of 2019, so his report is the same as it was when he appeared on last year’s Rays list. It’s not abundantly clear whether Rodriguez will be able to catch as, at age 18, he’s already a pretty big, long-levered kid who was initially unsure if he even wanted to try it. But Rodriguez can really hit. He has excellent timing, bat control, and feel for all-fields contact, and he can open up and get his barrel on pitches inside. He might end up at first base or in an outfield corner, but he might hit enough to profile at those spots, and if he can catch, his ceiling is sizable.

Avelino has no idea where most of his pitches are going (he has 99 walks in 51 career innings) but he has big time arm strength for his age (94-99) and several other fastball traits that could make the offering dominant — even elite — if he ever becomes an even passable strike-thrower. The chances of that seem low considering how badly Avelino has struggled with it to this point, but his stuff is just too good to stick him in the honorable mention section.

Similar to the way Andres Gimenez skipped over short season ball (though, he also skipped over the GCL), the Mets pushed Mauricio to Low-A after he had spent just a year on the complex. He was three and a half years younger than the average Sally League player and was still hitting an impressive .283/.323/.381 before he had a lousy August. The exciting physical characteristics — a lanky, projectable frame, the sort you typically see on the mound, the hands, actions, feet, and arm strength for short, precocious feel to hit — shared by Mauricio’s franchise-altering shortstop predecessors, the stuff that had us deliriously excited about him before he even signed, are still present.

The explosiveness and physicality of cornerstone, power-hitting shortstops still percolates beneath the surface, which is fine because Mauricio will be 18 until April and it isn’t reasonable to expect that he’d already have grown into impact power. When most players his age are either in the midst of their freshman season of college or getting ready to start Extended Spring Training, he might be in the Florida State League. Because he’ll be so young and in a pitcher-friendly league, it’s very likely that a year from now, we’ll be ignoring a pretty lousy statline for contextual reasons. With another full year of data to consider, we now know Mauricio is a little swing-happy and that, even if that explosion arrives, he either needs to develop feel for lift or tweak the swing if all the power is to actualize. Hopefully we’re not living in the timeline where Mauricio outgrows shortstop and those two things remain issues. Switch-hitting shortstops with power, uh, don’t really exist. That Mauricio has a chance to be one means he may one day be the top overall prospect in baseball, and several outcomes short of that ideal are still very, very good.

We now have what you could say is a softer 50 on Gimenez. Defensively, at either short or second, Gimenez’s wide array of skills, especially his range (it’s less important than it used to be because of improved positioning, but Gimenez can really go get it) is going to make him a strong middle infield defender.

On offense, even though Gimenez spent 2019 all the way up at Double-A Binghamton, things are less clear. He looked physically overmatched against Double-A pitching, which is fine because he was only 20, but he was also chasing a lot and seemed doomed if he fell behind in counts because of it. The all-fields spray (lots of oppo doubles) that comes when Gimenez targets more hittable pitches is very promising. We’re not optimistic that any kind of impact power will ever come (he’ll golf one out to his pull side once in a while), but the hit tool and doubles would be plenty to profile everyday on the middle infield if Gimenez learns to be more selective.

The way Vientos’ strikeout/walk rates trended in 2019 combined with continued skepticism regarding his ability to stay at third base led some of our sources to express trepidation about where we had him on our 2019 summer top 100 update. But he also put up an above-average statline in full-season ball as a teenager and he has some of the most exciting, frame-based power projection in all the minors. He’s tied for the highest average exit velo among hitters on this list and he has room for another 20 pounds on the frame, which is likely to come since Vientos was one of the younger prospects in his draft class and is younger than 2019 first rounder, Brett Baty. Because we’re talking about a corner bat with strikeout/walk rate yellow flags, Vientos is a high-risk bat but the power gives him middle-of-the-order potential.

In an age when more and more teams are taking model-driven approaches to building a draft board, Baty’s age was such a unique trait that precedent couldn’t inform one much: he was 19.6 on draft day while some other Day One prospects were as young as 17.6. A player’s age relative to his peers is a predictive variable for pro success (younger is better) and Baty is older than a lot of 2018’s high school draftees, against whom we had pro performance to judge while Baty only had high school stats on draft day.

Baty compares quite closely to Cardinals 2018 first rounder and top 100 prospect Nolan Gorman: he’s big, strong, and has huge power and advanced feel to hit. He may not be an athletic fit at third base, especially long-term, and is at risk of moving to first, but his quicker-than-expected feet (he’s a standout hoops player as well) could help delay that. Baty essentially held serve in his first taste of pro ball and his 2020 season will go a long way to dictating his value, as another half-season of pro performance will wipe out all the pre-draft considerations.

Allan was one of the top pitchers in the 2019 prep class over the summer, then took a big step forward in the spring, touching the high-90s in every start after peaking in the mid-90s over the summer. His fastball and breaking ball were both anywhere from 60 to 70 grade pitches during the spring depending on the day and scout, while his changeup was a 55 at times over the summer, when he also sometimes flashed average command. If you put together the best elements from both versions of Allan, there’s a potential ace, but the worry is that either one or the other will the the actual outcome, which is still a solid mid-rotation type.

He’s not projectable and is an average athlete, so there are some limits on his upside. He had a rumored $4 million price tag in the draft, which many thought would push him to college, but he ended up changing his asking price and signing for $2.5 million in the third round after throwing a much higher number out to clubs that almost took him at multiple spots in the first. Mets brass are thrilled with their first draft under the new regime and some specifically think Allan is already the best prospect of the group. He could be a top 100 prospect by midseason if he continues his current streak of good health and performance, as his TrackMan figures are very strong.

Young catchers are notoriously slow to develop as they adjust to the physical and mental demands of the position, which often stymies their offensive production. But Alvarez’s first pro season was statistically impressive. He only played in 42 games, but he hit .312/.407/.510 (mostly in the Appy League) while playing very good defense and appearing more svelte and conditioned than he had as an amateur.

His swing (his front foot is down very early) could stand to be a little more athletic to take advantage of his movement skills, but he rotates hard anyway and his hitting posture enables him to lift pitches in various locations. The receiving, lateral mobility, and arm strength are all promising on the defensive side, too. Teen catchers are risky and often take forever to develop, but Alvarez’s track record of hitting extends back to amateur play, so we’re a little more comfortable here. We view him very similarly to the way we viewed Miguel Amaya a few years ago, except Amaya’s frame was more obviously projectable.

Working back from a year and a half of Tommy John rehab, both Szapucki’s in-game pitch count and velocity climbed as the summer burned on. He worked in 20 to 30-pitch stints for the first several weeks of the year before rounding into more traditional starter form late. His sinker and changeup have similar movement, which will benefit the change (which is just fine in a vacuum). The curveball, though, the pitch that enabled Szapucki’s earlier breakout, remains excellent. We’re hoping more mechanical consistency in season two back from TJ will yield better command, but even if this iteration of Szapucki is where things settle, that’ll still be a strong multi-inning relief piece if not a No. 4/5 starter.

Peterson was a known prep prospect as an underclassman in Colorado due to his 6-foot-6 frame and ability to touch 90 mph from the left side at an early age. Then he had two decent years at Oregon before he dominated as a junior, striking out 140 hitters and walking just 15 in 100 innings. He has never had a plus pitch, nor does he project to have one, and instead works in the low-90s with tough angle and great extension, and several other pitches. He doesn’t have high spin rates on his breaking stuff and pitches more to weak contact with a sinking, sometimes cutting changeup, looking like a steady, durable, No. 4/5 starter who we’ll see in the big leagues this year.

Tommy John surgery late in the fall of 2018 meant Kilome didn’t pitch at all last year, though he was throwing with effort in the bullpen late in September. He has shown a starter’s mix of pitches, especially during his brief time with the Mets (he was acquired from Philly for Asdrúbal Cabrera ahead of the 2018 deadline) when his strike throwing and changeup improved. Prior to that, he had been pretty raw for a pitcher his age and had begun to look like a bullpen arm, an outcome that became more likely due to the injury and his presence on New York’s 40-man. There’s a chance Kilome looks really good in the spring and the Mets decide to let him start while managing his workload, but we expect to see mid-90s heat and a great curveball out of the bullpen sometime in 2020.

As we sourced for this org list, we spoke with a scout who saw Newton play terribly for a week and still thought he belonged high on this list because his physical talent is so remarkable. This is an extreme risk hit tool prospect, the kind who sometimes tricks us into thinking relevant adjustments have been made and performs at upper levels only to flail at big league pitching (see: Brinson, Lewis), but also sometimes becomes Aaron Judge.

Newton is built like an SEC wide receiver, he already has sizable power and will likely grow into more, while also staying on the left side of the infield. He has a shot to be what we have Mauricio projected to be; a switch-hitting shortstop or third baseman with impact power. But Newton has run two consecutive years of strikeout rates up around 32% and the quality of his at-bats is wildly variable. He’s still growing into his body, so perhaps more reliable bat-to-ball skills will arrive once he does. Even if he cuts the K’s down to the 25% range, we could be talking about a valuable everyday big leaguer.

A slight dip in velo and a strike-throwing regression isn’t enough to slide Santos down the pref list at this point, not as his age, nor at his size, and especially not when you consider both. This is a giant teenager with a good arm and some breaking ball and changeup feel (for creating movement, not for locating) who was pushed hurriedly to an affiliate when he was still 17. The arm action looked a little less fluid and was a bit compromised last season, but we’re still on Santos as a long-term projection arm with an elite frame.

Wolf was a lower-end follow after the summer showcase circuit, then popped up during his draft spring as a high school senior. When making the rounds in Texas, Kiley ran into him with no background; Wolf sat 94-97 with plus life and a plus curveball while there were a couple dozen scouts in the house who were trying to double Wolf up with eventual first round pick Jackson Rutledge (both are based in the Houston area). Wolf’s frame and delivery aren’t ideal for a 200 inning type, but the stuff is loud, the arm is fresh, the velo is new, and there’s no track record of any trouble in the way of injuries, overuse, or walk rate, so at some point we’re just nitpicking.

Rodriguez lost some time to a hamstring strain last year and it may have masked his real athleticism for a while during an otherwise stellar first summer in the states. This is a very athletic, switch-hitting catcher with advanced feel for contact, and a few of the sources we spoke with about Rodriguez were actually most excited about his defense. The movement, receiving, and catch-and-throw skills are fine, but Rodriguez has also seen time at first base and in the outfield, so he might be a very interesting, multi-positional player. We have him valued where we had Rafael Marchan and Gabriel Moreno at the same stage.

Smith was a seventh rounder in 2018 out of Georgia. He’s a big lefty who sits around 90 with a three-pitch mix, but he was used in a number of roles in college, so nobody was really pounding the table for him. Well, maybe they should have been: he carved up Low-A after being drafted, then did the same to High-A and before pitching well at Double-A as a 22-year-old in his first full season. The stuff still isn’t great, but his slider flashes above average, his fastball has a solid spin rate and overall characteristics to go along with some deception and the feel to get the most out of his stuff. The intangibles seem to be driving the success here and the tools aren’t bad, so a big league look in 2020 or 2021 now seems likely.

This is one of, if not the highest variance prospects in the entire system. Unearthed in the Mets’ backyard as an overslot Day Three pick, Palmer surprised the industry by going to Kingsport and performing well above what was expected of him. We think there’s a gap between the contact performance (Palmer hit .250) and actual skill at this point, but that’s okay for such a lanky, cold-weather, out-of-nowhere high school prospect.

The measurable power Palmer generates on contact is shocking. He’s tied with Mark Vientos and Brett Baty for the highest average exit velo on this list and he’s arguably more physically projectable than either of them. His long-term defensive profile is still unclear, and Palmer’s ability to make contact and recognize offspeed stuff is raw. It’s possible he becomes a whiff-prone corner outfielder and falls off the list in two years, but he may also stay on the dirt and develop passable feel to hit and huge raw power.

Like Desmond Lindsay, who is a ways down this list, Hernandez is muscular, explosive, tightly-wound, and suffered a severe soft-tissue injury (a torn hamstring) that cost him most all of 2019. And so, the scouting report remains the same as it did on last year’s list: Hernandez runs well enough to stay in center field and he has sizable raw power for a teenager. The cement on the bod is pretty dry, and while we think that means limited power projection, it also probably means Hernandez stays in center. The exit velos on THE BOARD for both Hernandez and Lindsay are from the 2018 season, when they were healthy enough to generate sufficient data.

Dominguez was a known, and not all that highly-regarded, pitching prospect at the beginning of 2019. He was then a 17-year-old Venezuelan righty with some effort who sat 90-93, which is typically a $10,000 to $25,000 bonus pitcher. He was then 94-97 at an event in the summer, and teams sat up straight to reconsider him, but some clubs wanted to see it another time or two to make sure it wasn’t an anomaly. The Mets moved quickly, though Dominguez’s bonus, which we were told was $95,000, reflected that level of uncertainty.

Between when Dominguez was waiting for his contract to be approved and the end of Dominican instructs, he continued to sit in the mid-90s and hit 99, flashing a plus breaking ball at times. A scout who saw him during this period told us he would “blow the doors off” of the GCL this time next summer. He’s only thrown a handful of times since the velo spike and not even all of the Mets upper level decision makers have seen him yet, but the talent level is on par with a compensation or second round pick. There’s just significantly more uncertainty and less track record than even later-developing players taken in that range, like Josh Wolf.

Ventura began the summer in the DSL but had reached Kingsport by August. He doesn’t have the big frame to dream on but he’s very athletic, can spin it, his fastball has life, he already throws pretty hard, and he’ll show an occasional plus slider. You can go kind of wild projecting on his command because of the athleticism, but realistically he could be a No. 4/5 starter.

Cortes is unique in that he’s a switch-thrower who stood out early in his high school career and pitched along with playing all over the diamond, including an attempt at catching. He had plus bat control at that stage but his body has thickened and he’s lost some of his athleticism as he’s aged, though he still has good feel for the bat. He’s played a passable second base and otherwise would fit in left field or maybe at first, but the defensive value is minimal regardless. The calling card is plus raw power and feel to hit from the left side. There isn’t much else there, so a role as a Frank Catalanotto/Matt Stairs style platoon player or bench bat seems to be the most likely outcome.

While he isn’t your typical, huge-framed teenage arm, Cornielly has a lot of starter traits. He’s a plus athlete with a squeaky clean delivery, and advanced changeup feel and fastball command. The breaking ball needs work, but it’s a shape problem more than a raw spin one, and we think Cornielly is athletic enough to develop in this area. He has a realistic shot to be a No. 4/5 starter down the line, and a non-zero chance to develop a premium change, command, or both, and be more.

Humphrey’s Tommy John rehab started and stopped (more of the latter) last summer before he threw during the Fall League, where he sat in the low-90s on about a week’s rest. He showed a rare changeup but mostly worked off an 82-85 mph slider otherwise. He looked like a potential backend starter before the UCL blew out and all the setbacks started, but looked more like a “maybe” reliever in the fall. We like his chances of bouncing back but he’ll need to show it early in the spring and stay healthy.

This Alexander Ramirez and the Angels recently-signed Alexander Ramirez are going to be conflated with one another for the next several years because they have almost identical builds. They’re each classic, big-framed, power projection outfielders. This Ramirez runs well enough to try center field for a while, though we expect he’ll move to a corner eventually due to his size. Lever length may be an issue here.

Added to the 40-man during the offseason, Sanchez projects as a glove-oriented backup.

Toffey was a notable player on the national stage all the way back to high school and has been a similar guy for those last seven years. He’s got solid feel to hit and works counts with mediocre raw power and ordinary bat speed. He’s made offensive adjustments at each level but has excelled only once he’s been on the old side for prospects at each level, so the low-end regular chance has mostly dried up now. He’s a solid defender with a plus arm who probably fits best as a lefty platoon corner bat and is still on schedule to be that at some point in 2020 or 2021.

Valdez got a big bonus as part of the 2018 class and is a beefy power guy who we were a little skeptical of athletically, but he performed in the DSL and was pushed to the GCL last summer. The exit velos are a little lower than we expected given how big and strong Valdez is already.

Gilliam was the ace starter for one of the most prospect-laden prep teams in the country in 2015, Kennesaw Mountain High School, which also had current top 100 prospect Tyler Stephenson (Reds) and center fielder Reggie Pruitt (Blue Jays), who got a $500,000 bonus in the 24th round. Gilliam could’ve received a low-to-mid six figure bonus out of high school, but instead went to Clemson, where he mostly relieved, a role that agreed with his aggressive approach and fastball/curveball combination. He has two above-average offerings rather than a true plus out pitch, which is why he’s in this tier rather than the 40 FV one.

A torn hamstring cost Lindsay virtually all of 2019, a familiar refrain in an injury-riddled pro career, which has included several hamstring issues. Lindsay has big tools, but he struggles with contact and hasn’t had the in-game reps to remedy it.

A slight velo dip (92-95 in 2018, 90-93 last year) now has Lockett projecting as more of a spot starter or swingman rather than a sinkerballing No. 5.

Megill has a similar profile to his older brother, Trevor, who was a recent Rule 5 pick by the Cubs from the Padres. They’re both giant and throw hard and pitched at Loyola Marymount, while Tylor later ended up at Arizona. Tylor has made notable improvements in pro ball to his breaking ball after going in the eighth round as a senior sign in 2018. One source described Tylor as a potential Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo due to his high-octane stuff, spin rates, and multi-inning potential. Given his age, he could get to the big leagues in 2020 with continued refinement.

There are some elements of Suarez’s delivery that need to be ironed out if he’s going to locate consistently enough to start, but he’s strong of build, has a loose arm, and can spin a two-plane slider from his current three-quarters arm slot. He’s an interesting developmental follow for now.

Just a body/arm strength lottery ticket for now, Otanez should continue starting for a bit in order to refine his breaking ball. If that comes along, he’ll be a middle reliever.

Two consecutive tumultuous seasons — a 2018 stimulant suspension, lat and oblique issues, then 2019 shoulder fatigue, control problems, and what looked like a conditioning regression — have us a little down on Whitley, but not too much, because his stuff is still quite good. He wields one of the deepest repertoires in all of the minors and, though the elite-looking changeup he showed during the 2018 Fall League was not present in 2019, all of his stuff is still above-average or better, both visually and on paper.

The strike-throwing hiccup isn’t great, but Whitley clearly knows where his stuff plays best (fastballs up, the cutter and slider to his glove side, and the curveball beneath the zone — a well-designed mix nearly ubiquitous in this system) and he works in those locations pretty loosely. Inefficiency might limit Whitley’s inning totals, but it’s unlikely to prevent him from starting. Ideally, Whitley shows up to camp in better shape than he appeared to be in during the Fall League; he underwent a much more drastic athletic metamorphosis in high school (which coincided with his pre-draft velo spike), so it seems very possible. The top of a rotation ceiling that seemed possible a year ago would now require a bit of a bounce back in stuff and a quantum control/command leap. That seems unlikely, but a mid-rotation/All-Star ceiling still exists.

Urquidy made last year’s Astros list as an Other of Note, projecting as a spot starter because of his plus changeup and command. He sat 89-93 in 2018, then found a few more ticks of velo and a second breaking ball in 2019, all while retaining the command and change. Both breaking balls will play because of where Urquidy locates them (the slider, especially, needs to miss away from hitters), and his changeup action works against both handed hitters, so he’s a promising rotation piece who we project as a 2.5 WAR-ish starter.

It’s rare for evaluations of a player as seasoned as Toro to be as divisive as his are, all the way down to the bones of his tool grades. Running is simple to evaluate using home to first times, but there’s even disagreement over Toro in this area. But let’s start with the most important stuff: the offense. Toro is short-levered and tightly-wound, not the loose, rotational athlete most scouts like. But he muscles balls into both gaps and has solid barrel control, enough to spoil tough pitches and grind out tough at-bats. It’s a pretty well-rounded contact/doubles power/OBP profile even though Toro presents an atypical look.

The same is true of Toro’s defense. When he has the time to really step into a throw, he uncorks rockets, but he’s not the kind of athlete who can make strong throws in tough situations. He’s okay at third base, but there are teams and individual scouts who prefer him at either first or in the outfield corners, and some are really intrigued by the latter possibility because of Toro’s long speed. He’s not a graceful runner, but he can really move once he gets going and his swing has a natural jailbreak, so he’s fast to first. A diverse defensive role seems logical considering how crowded Houston’s 1B/3B situation is, unless Toro gets traded. He has a shot to be an average everyday player if he gets an opportunity, but otherwise should play a valuable, switch-hitting corner role.

There are several higher-probability prospects in this system (most of them pitchers) but Nova remains one of the few with everyday upside (or better) because of his bat speed. He takes questionable at-bats, but the frame/power projection and likelihood that Nova stay on the dirt, probably on the left side of the infield, give him a shot to be an impact regular. Despite an Epicurean approach, Nova has a three-year track record of statistical success, including a nearly average line as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League last year, which featured 25 extra-base hits in just 75 games.

Because he has premium arm strength and both of his breaking balls are nasty benders from hell — they’re roughly the same velocity but have clearly different shapes — Abreu has elite reliever ceiling. His complete lack of fastball control forces him to work with those breaking balls early in counts, which impacts hitters’ willingness to offer at them later in at-bats as they’ve already seen a couple. Because he has options left, a wild spring from Abreu might mean he spends 2020 up and down from Round Rock, but he might also be Houston’s closer by the end of the summer.

It’s odd to consider someone with such lowly control a “pitchability” arm, but Javier is exactly that. He manipulates the shape of his breaking balls, pitches backward, and will double and triple up on his changeup when he’s behind in the count, all in an attempt to get to two strikes so he can try to sneak his fastball past hitters. And he does. Javier has fringe velocity but his fastball garners swings and misses more than 17% of the time. Even though he struggles with walks, his career WHIP is just a shade over 1.00 because hitters can’t touch his stuff. It may be in a 90 or 100 inning bullpen role, but Javier projects to be a core piece of Houston’s staff.

Bielak’s 2019 ERA was inflated by a bad three-start stretch in June, including a nine-run spanking in Vegas, where that kind of thing is fairly common. He had some rashes of wildness early in the year, but over the final two months of the summer, Bielak was his characteristic, strike-throwing self. He can pitch backwards and consistently locates both of his breaking balls to his glove side; Bielak often sets up one with the other. There’s a starter’s repertoire depth and pitch quality here, along with a starter’s command and good raw spin, and he performed against Triple-A hitters late in the season. He’s a high-probability No. 4/5 starter.

A stocky, athletic catcher with a good arm and surprising bat speed and power, Lee hit .320/.420/.626 as a junior at Cal and emerged as a Day 1 talent. Teams with draft models that more evenly weight multiple seasons weren’t on Lee as much before the draft because he didn’t perform like that as an underclassman. Lee didn’t catch much pro-quality stuff at Cal, so that part of his skillset remains somewhat unclear, but we think he’s athletic enough to improve if it’s an issue initially. He looked ground down last summer after he signed, and was less balanced at the plate. He has everyday tools, but catchers are high risk and this one has a relatively short track record of performance.

Brown was a late-rising arm for Division-II Wayne State in Michigan, with high level scouts running in for looks after a breakout outing at a Florida tournament in early March. He had buzz as high as the second round, but ended up slipping to the fifth on draft day, with some buzz that a rookie agent (since fired) vetoed what would’ve been a higher bonus in the third. Early returns are very positive on Brown in pro ball: up to 97, mixing in an above average slider and a usable changeup, with a workhorse frame with starter traits.

Solis had Tommy John late in the summer of 2018, meaning he didn’t pitch at all last year, so his FV and scouting report are the same as they were in 2019. Among the non-Top 100 types of arms in this system, he not only has one of the better chances of remaining a starter but also has the best stuff among those who do, led by a plus-flashing curveball that he has great feel for locating. Solis also has a great arm for a 19-year-old, and may still throw harder as he matures, with his fastball already sitting in the viable low-to-mid 90s. There’s some changeup feel here, too, and teams think Solis has mid-rotation ceiling so long as his command continues to progress.

The Astros will need to make a Rule 5 protection 40-man decision on him after the 2020 season, a decision that will be made easier if Solis hits the ground running after rehab.

We tabbed Pena as a potential breakout candidate last season (he had added about 20 pounds of muscle during the winter) and he did have a pretty good 2019 split between Low- and Hi-A, levels too low for us to really buy in based on stats alone. We think he’ll continue to hit for doubles power while playing a terrific shortstop. Some clubs have him evaluated as a low-end regular, others as a utility player (he’s played some second and third), which we think is more likely.

Perhaps the loosest, most fluid on-mound athlete in the system, Rivera struck out just shy of 30% of opposing hitters for the second straight year in 2019. He began the season in Extended before joining Low-A Quad Cities in a piggyback role, usually working three or four innings per outing, mostly with his monster fastball and power breaking ball, from which he adds and subtracts when he’s trying to get back into counts. The longer arm action, mostly two-pitch mix, fringe control and age/level/40-man timeline funnel Rivera toward the bullpen, and he might be very scary if his heater has another gear in single innings.

Any of the several, hard-throwing relievers you’re about to read about could end up pitching at the back of a bullpen one day, and Paredes might have the best shot. He is arguably the best athlete in this system, and it’s incredible that he’s able to stay balanced over his landing leg despite taking a gargantuan, max-effort stride toward home. So deep is the bend in Paredes’ landing leg, so low to the ground is he at release, that his fastballs approach hitters at a very flat angle that they seem to struggle with. He throws really hard, up to 99 with explosive life, and mixes in several semi-consistent secondary offerings of varying shape and quality. He’s worked as a starter or in three-inning jaunts out of the bullpen, and the pitch mix supports continued usage of this sort.

Ivey’s violent head whack, some minor injury stuff, and the lack of innings foundation — caused partially by a 2019 suspension, the official reason for which was undisclosed, though it came out after he was caught using a foreign substance — push him toward the bullpen, but he has starter’s stuff. His fastball plays well at the top of the zone. Even last year, when he wasn’t throwing quite as hard as the year before, Ivey’s fastball hummed past upper-level hitters. His curveball is the headliner, though. It’s a gorgeous, old-school, 12-to-6 yakker that freezes hitters. He also has a cutter/slider and a changeup, the latter of which shows flashes of bat-missing movement. Unless the mid-90s heat comes back, we prefer Ivey in a multi-inning relief role, but he’ll probably be given at least one more year of starts just to see what happens since he doesn’t have to be on the 40 until next winter.

He’s not as lanky and projectable as most teenage arms, but Macuare has very advanced feel for pitching (toss out his two, walk-happy starts before Houston shut him down for a few weeks) and his fastball has monster vertical movement. He’ll flash a plus curveball, which he can dot on the corners, but the changeup feel is a little behind. It looks like a potential backend starter on the surface but the fastball might play way better than that, enabling Macuare to be closer to a true No. 4.

In the 2019 draft, Brewer was an outfielder for College World Series finalist Michigan and arguably had the best raw tools in the draft. But he lasted until the back of the third round due to his rawness at the plate, underlined by his 56 strikeouts to 24 walks. He was draft eligible in 2018 at Lincoln Trail JC in Illinois and went undrafted, but emerged in his season at Michigan due to his huge tools: solid average raw power, plus-plus speed, plus arm strength and good instincts on the bases.

At the plate, Brewer’s pitch selection is below average and his swing can get long, so the prototypical profile of the below average contact platoon center fielder, like a Jake Marisnick, is the reasonable upside since Brewer is already 22.

The late-rising NorCal prep center fielder grew on us (and, it seems, teams) as the draft approached. Barber has plus speed, so he should stay in center, and we think he has the athleticism to project his hitting ability to progress. He’s a high-effort player, somewhat stiff, but his bat is quick, and the swing is compact. There are some tweener bench outfield traits, but a good contact/up-the-middle foundation.

Kessinger is the next in a line of prep shortstops who are raw enough at the plate to get to college, but who have the instincts to potentially turn into everyday big leaguers if the right offensive adjustments are made in their early 20s. Brandon Crawford and Dansby Swanson are some of the more notable successes, Jordy Mercer is a middle tier outcome, and Connor Kaiser (Pirates) along with Connor Walsh (Ole Miss) are two in-progress candidates along with Kessinger. Kessinger also has big league bloodlines: his grandfather (Don) played 16 seasons in the big leagues in the 1960s and 70s, his father (Kevin) played a summer of pro ball in 1992, and his uncle (Keith) got a big league cup of coffee in 1993.

Grae stood out on the summer showcase circuit in high school as a glove-first athlete with the tools to succeed offensively but middling performance against top pitching; that mostly held through his three years at Ole Miss, though he made solid progress. Kessinger’s approach steadily improved and he got to more of his power, leading to a pro debut at age 21 spent mostly in Low-A, where he performed almost as well as he did in college. His swing complexity and effort were reduced in college to make more contact, and he’s a swing change candidate in pro ball, as this type of hitter can benefit from mechanics that free up his athleticism. Kessinger was an above average defender in high school but bulked up a bit in college and lost a bit of quickness. Any kind of step forward offensively would give him a big league role of some consequence.

This guy is built like a tank, he has an ample and enviable lower half and electric arm that generates mid-90s velo (one source saw Garcia crest 100 but we can’t find another who’s seen over 98), and a plus slurve. We’d like to see a third pitch before bumping Garcia into a late-inning relief FV tier.

Santana had a fine year in the Penn League as a 20-year-old, and we still really like his feel for contact, but for a thick, projectionless guy his exit velos are concerningly low. He needs to be a 60 or 70 bat to profile as a second baseman because he’s unlikely to hit for power or be a very good defensive player.

Torres signed with Milwaukee back in 2015 but his deal was voided due to identity falsification. He re-emerged in 2018 with Houston and had a breakout 2019. While he has one of the harder fastballs in this entire system, Torres throws his slider about 60% of the time because he can put it in the zone more consistently than his heater. His command will limit him to a bullpen role, and he has an outside shot to pitch in high-leverage innings.

We still have some sources who think Sanabria can start, but he’s been wild two of the last three years and his body has backed up a bit. His arm strength has not. Sanabria was up to 99 last year, sitting 94-96 much of the time. He has a four-pitch mix (the slider is 84-87, the curveball is in the low-80s) that he doesn’t control, so we have him in relief.

The Astros stuck Perez in the bullpen after he returned from a six-week IL stint brought on by a forearm issue. This, combined with his regressed strike throwing, makes it likely he just ends up in Houston’s bullpen long-term, even though they arguably have some rotation spots up for grabs. While his starter pedigree makes Perez more likely to assume a multi-inning role than some similarly talented arms a little further down the list, we saw a more scant repertoire from him in his 2019 big league outings, which perhaps means that kind of role has become less likely.

Dawson had a disappointing 2019 if you look at his surface-level stats, but a putrid-looking .212/.320/.403 line was actually good for a 105 wRC+ in the Texas League. Dawson’s arm strength limits him to left and center (where he’s willed himself into becoming a passable defender) but he has sizable raw thump, he walks at an above-average clip, he lifts the ball, has good makeup and is an above-average athlete. He looks like a viable fourth outfielder or platoon option.

Switch-hitting middle infielders are hard to come by, and Lorenzo is short to the ball and his swing has lift, which is also rare. He’s somewhat projectable and his arm might push him to second base, but the bat may carry him.

Ramirez was so wild early in the year that the Astros had to send him back to Extended Spring Training to be re-deployed at a short season affiliate later in the summer. He still ended up walking more than a batter per inning, and he’s likely a bullpen piece long-term, but his velo and breaking ball give him considerable ceiling. He’s arguably the riskiest player on this list.

Armenteros struck out a batter per inning at Triple-A last year but his stuff was actually down, the fastball living in the 87-91 range more so than the 91-94 we’d grown accustomed to. If his fastball bounces back, we like him as a No. 4/5 starter thanks to his command and plus changeup. If it doesn’t, he might struggle to stay on the roster.

Added to the Houston 40-man this offseason, Rodriguez doesn’t have the kind of arm strength found throughout most of the rest of this system, but his fastball has traits that help it play (spin axis, vertical movement) and he’s a more reliable strike-thrower than his upper-level peers with sexier stuff. He’s going to work in on the hands of lefties with his stuff, even the breaking ball, which he has above-average command of.

Stubbs finally began to see time at other positions in 2019 (the outfield and some second base) and he projects in an interesting 26th man role, which may help keep him healthy and more productive at the plate than he would be if asked to catch everyday.

One of the earlier pitch design guinea pigs, Bailey’s arsenal is robust for a reliever. Houston traded Ramon Laureano to Oakland for Bailey, then lost him to Baltimore for nothing in the 2019 Rule 5 draft. Now, he’s very likely to stick on the Orioles’ 25-man next year. Like most pitchers who’ve been touched by Astros player development, Bailey’s fastball plays at the top of the strike zone, and it helps set up an above-average, 12-to-6 curveball. His changeup will flash plus and he can vary his breaking ball shape to look like a slider or cutter to give hitters different looks. All of these components allow Bailey to strike out lots of batters without big velocity (91-94, touch 96), but his approach to pitching is not conducive to efficient strike-throwing, so he’s likely a multi-inning relief piece or swing man.

McCormick is a potential small school late bloomer. The Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference’s all-time hits leader has tweaked his swing over the course of two full seasons (his stance and stride direction have changed), and he now only hits the ball on the ground about a third of the time, instead of half. He’s now performed statistically up through Triple-A amid some pretty aggressive promotions. Scouts have some trepidation about it working at the big league level, but McCormick has at least become an intriguing, tradable prospect.

Taylor is a vertical arm slot, fastball/curveball reliever. Houston acquired him as part of the Jake Marisnick deal with the Mets.

Dubin enjoyed a velo spike in 2019 and dominated low-level competition with mid-90s heat and a good slider. He’s a wispy 155 pounds, which has caused some consternation among scouts about his ability to hold the velo spike over multiple seasons (one source put a Mike Stutes comp on him), but it’s middle relief stuff now.

Solomon missed almost all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. He projects as a multi-pitch reliever.

Lopez has a long, somewhat violent arm action and he’s small, but he’s a plus athlete with a really quick arm and advanced pitchability for his age. He has a shot to be a No. 4/5 starter and has a realistic bullpen fallback due to the arm strength.

Conine spent 2019 carving up low-level hitters with a well-located breaking ball and a sneaky, low-90s heater. His could pitch his way into a backend rotation role, but he’s more likely a spot start, up and down type.

A pitchability lefty with more physical projection than most pitchers this age, Lopez has backend starter ceiling.

Another potential backend starter, Robaina has the vertical arm slot and accompanying spin axis, but he’s less projetable than Lopez even though he’s two years younger.

We think De La Cruz has a shot to be in someone’s outfield mix eventually, just probably not Houston’s. He mashes lefties and plays an above-average corner, but he could use a swing change to get to more of his average raw power.

Taveras is an arm strength lottery ticket who walked more than a batter per inning in the AZL last year.

The Marlins seem to have a taste for divisive, polarizing prospects who much of the industry perceives as risky, such as Lewis Brinson, Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra, and many more of the names currently on this list. That includes Jazz, who was acquired in exchange for Zac Gallen before the trade deadline. The swap meant Miami gave up six years of what looks like a mid-rotation starter for six-ish years of Chisholm, who might be a superstar or strikeout too much to be anything at all.

Chisholm has whiffed in 30% of his career plate appearances, partially a product of a sophomoric approach to hitting and otherwise due to him arguably being too explosive for his own good. But that twitch, the violence, Jazz’s awesome ability to uncoil his body from the ground up and rotate with incredible speed, the natural lift in his swing — many of the things that make him whiff-prone also make him exciting, and give him a chance to be an impact offensive player who also plays a premium defensive position. His skillset is somewhere on the Chris Taylor/Javier Báez continuum of strikeout/power offensive profiles at a premium defensive position. We want to see another year of plus walk rates (Chisholm walked 11% of the time in 2019, up from a career 8%) before we declare that to be a true part of the skillset, but the power is real (a 91.4 mph average exit velo would put him in the top 40 of the majors, while 48% of his balls in play being over 95 mph would be in the top 30), the lift is there (he has a career groundball rate in the low 30% range and a 17 degree average launch angle according to a source), and we think he has a chance to be an above-average defensive shortstop, though for the first time we had one dissenting source on the glove. He also performed statistically as a 21-year-old at Double-A. One of several radionuclides in this system, Chisholm has its highest ceiling.

Miami had Sixto throw in Extended Spring Training (he threw bullpens until mid-April, then got into games) to control his season-long workload coming off an injury-plagued 2018 (he had visible discomfort in his neck and shoulder early in the year, elbow soreness later on, and skipped Fall League due to collarbone soreness) before sending him to Double-A for the bulk of the summer. There is a gap between how many bats his fastball misses (he has 8% swinging strike rate on the heater, where the big league average on all pitches is 11%) and what you might expect at this velocity (Sixto averages 97, touches 101) because it has sinking/tailing movement rather than ride. Whether Miami player dev can adjust that without compromising Sanchez’s control and health remains to be seen.

His changeup, which is one of the better ones in the minors, will be his primary out pitch unless or until that happens. The cambio has bat-missing, screwball action, so much that it dips beneath the barrel of right-handed hitters as well as away from lefties. Sanchez can also run it back over the corner of the glove side of the plate, freezing perplexed hitters. Though his slider has plus spin, it’s horizontal wipe means it needs to be located off the plate to work, but Sixto, especially considering how little he’s pitched in his life and how far backwards his build has gone on him to this point, commands it pretty well. The same arm slot/hand position change that might add more ride to the fastball could add more depth to the breaking ball, but you could argue that such a change is an unnecessary risk considering Sixto’s injury history and how well everything already works.

Knowledge of the fastball efficacy gap combined with the injury history has us down on Sixto a little bit. He still has top-of-the rotation upside, there’s just more developmental work to do to get there than we thought there was a year ago.

Part of Bleday’s 2019 breakout at Vanderbilt — he hit four homers as a sophomore and slugged .511, then hit 26 as a junior and slugged .717 — was because his 2018 power was hindered by a severe oblique injury that caused him to miss half of the season. Healthy Bleday was not only one of the more polished hitters in his draft class but one of the most physically gifted as well. In addition to having a superlative feel for the strike zone, Bleday is also short to the ball but still creates lift. He murders offspeed stuff, has all-fields ability, and can mishit balls with power — he’s a complete offensive package. He’s also pretty fast, and his instincts in the outfield could make him a plus corner defender. We expect him to move pretty quickly and be an above-average everyday player.

Every year there are a few dozen teenage righties who look like Cabrera did two years ago: big, prototypical frame, mid-90s heat, an occasionally good breaking ball, and command you can dream on if you like the delivery/athleticism. Every once in a while, everything comes together and we end up with a top 100 prospect, and that is exactly what is happening with Cabrera. A slight velo bump and an arm slot change enabled a 2019 ascension (he had strikeout rates around 20% in ’17 and ’18, and roughly 30% in ’19) as Cabrera’s breaking ball now has more downward action. There are clubs who have Cabrera ahead of Sixto on their Marlins org pref list because they prefer Cabrera’s breaking ball and the movement profile on his fastball. His stuff, build, and likely No. 4 starter profile compare pretty closely to the college pitchers who typically go in the top 10 picks of any given draft, and Cabrera has now shown he’s capable of making relevant adjustments without experiencing hiccups in performance, which portends success in future trials.

Two of the trades Tampa Bay made last summer — swapping Nick Solak for Peter Fairbanks and Jesus Sanchez for Nick Anderson — made us wonder if we were undervaluing long-tethered, potential late-inning relievers, or at least underestimating their value to immediate contenders or perhaps the impact of 40-man crunch on trade leverage.

It also made us worry we were too high on Sanchez himself. We, and much of the industry, are scared of corner-only prospects who clearly lack plate discipline, and Sanchez is one of these (6.5% career walk rate). That, plus Sanchez’s swing still not being fully actualized for power (a seven degree launch angle in 2019, a groundball rate around 50%), means he’s fighting an uphill battle to get to his huge raw power in games, since he’s either swinging at pitches he can’t do anything with or failing to lift a lot of the ones he can. However, Sanchez has some of the most thrilling bat speed in the minors and despite his issues, his talent has enabled him to perform statistically so far. He hits balls very hard (50% of his 2019 balls in play were hit 95 mph or above) and has feel for contact, just not for contact in the air. We think it’ll be enough for Sanchez to be an average everyday hitter, and the Marlins have two option years to try to tinker with the swing and coax out more power if they want to. There’s All-Star ceiling here if they can do it.

Harrison reduced some of the movement in his swing following his move to the Marlins org as part of the Christian Yelich deal, seemingly as a way to find the barrel more often, since good things happen when he does. In his first full season with more of a contact-oriented approach, he cut his strikeout rate from 37% to 30% amid a move to Triple-A, and posted an average statline for the PCL. He hits the baseball very hard — a 93.4 mph average exit velo, per a source, with 52% of his balls in play at or above 95 mph — but not often in the air. We expect what comes from this newfound approach to contact, as well as Harrison’s defensive ability, to result in an average everyday player in aggregate, but the swing-and-miss tendencies, as well as the possibility that Harrison has some huge seasons if he ever hits for power, mean he’s a high-variance player.

The Twins asked Diaz to shed some weight heading into the 2018 season and he lost so much that the following year, much of the strength that had made him an interesting prospect in the first place had been sapped away. Over time, he was able to add muscle and not only recapture the power he had early in his pro career — resulting in a 2019 offensive renaissance — but to do so while retaining the slick defensive ability he flashed as an amateur before he got big.

Diaz is a plus athlete, which is incredible for someone his size, and his infield feet, hands, and actions are all plus. He has a low hand load and a bat path geared for hitting pitches down, so we wonder if big league arms will be able to get him out at the top of the strike zone, but Diaz generally has good feel to hit, he can adjust to breaking balls mid-flight, and he impacts the ball in the air to all-fields. We think he’s a .340 xwOBA guy who also plays plus defense at first, and while ideally he’d be a little more selective, we still think he ends up as a good everyday first baseman.

We were slow to correct our low pre-draft position on Rogers (he turned 20 the fall after he signed and we were skeptical about his breaking ball) as he enjoyed a 2019 breakout at Hi-A, with a 27% K%, 5% BB%, and a promotion to Double-A for his final five starts. The low-80s slurve is still not great and has been usurped by a mid-80s cutter/slider that, considering how quickly Rogers’ fastball/changeup control have developed, should enable him to induce weak contact as he hones it. The lack of a traditional breaking ball will likely be a barrier to true mid-rotation performance, and it’s more likely that, if Rogers is ever to be a No. 3/4 starter, he does so via continued improvement of a hopefully elite changeup or command, rather than the unlikely addition of a viable breaking ball.

Scott has now responded to two pretty bold promotions. The first was during his first pro summer, when Miami promoted him and other recent prep draftees to Low-A for the end of the season. Scott was bad there at the end of 2018, but made adjustments and posted a league-average statline as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League the following year. Scott kept his head above water at Hi-A late in 2019, too, though he did swing and miss much more there. Scott shares some swing components with fellow Plant High School alum Kyle Tucker; he has a similar low-ball proclivity and has shown glimpses of all-fields power. Scott’s frame is broad in the shoulders but otherwise narrow throughout, so he may never grow into big strength, which just makes him more likely to retain his plus speed. Unless unforeseen feel for lift develops, Scott profiles as a table-setting center fielder.

Back after missing 2018 while rehabbing from Tommy John, Garrett cruised through 18 starts (111 punch outs in 95 innings) before he sputtered to a finish in August, a month that included prolonged rest between a couple of starts. At his best, Garrett was living in the low-90s and locating his quality breaking ball to his glove side, which gave him two weapons against right-handed hitters (the changeup is also good) and a finisher versus lefties. His arm action is still short and efficient, same as it was before the surgery, and his pre-injury velocity is back. This isn’t an impact fastball profile, but the quality of the secondaries and Garrett’s command should enable him to pitch toward the back of a rotation.

He struggled to throw strikes during the summer after returning from early-season knee tendinitis, but Neidert looked more like himself during a five-start spin in the Fall League, when he walked just two in 22 innings. Otherwise evocative of a backend starter, Neidert’s out-pitch changeup and location-reliant breaking balls all work and are aided by some of his cross body deception. He doesn’t throw very hard, but the other components should enable him to be more of a No. 4/5.

Misner entered his draft spring in the same position of eventual Giants first rounder Hunter Bishop. Both were tooled up outfielders who hadn’t performed to expectations after their first two seasons because their swings were bad, though some of why Misner struggled was also because of a foot injury. He struggled more than was hoped during his draft year, too, especially against SEC pitching (.222/.353/.315), but the raw power/straightline speed combo enticed Miami at pick 35 anyway. He’s a high-risk college bat who needs a swing tweak.

Jerar projects to be a player similar to Hunter Renfroe or other corner outfield power bats with less plate discipline than is ideal. Built like an NFL tight end, Encarnacion starts with a closed stance and opens his front side up toward the third base line as he strides. How far he opens depends upon pitch location, which can leave him lunging at breaking balls that he thinks are center cut and end up swirling away from him, but Encarnacion has the power to hit balls out the opposite way, even if he’s fooled, if the pitch catches enough of the plate. He’s sometimes a bit of an adventure in the outfield, but even among polished peers in the Fall League, Encarnacion’s strength and physicality was a cut above, and he should mash his way into a modest big league role within the next couple of years.

Perhaps no prospect from the 2019 draft buoyed industry opinion during the summer as much as Burdick, who leveled the Midwest League after he signed. His forearms are as thick as support beams and help him generate huge pull power. Even though Burdick is a thicker guy, he takes a pretty athletic swing that demands a lot of his balance through contact, but he never appears out of control, even when he’s swinging his hardest. We tend not to buy heavily into college hitters’ stats at lower levels, but we know more about Burdick’s measurable power now that he’s generated data in pro ball, and it indicates that he might be a four or five-hole masher.

Nunez’s pre-game infield is appointment viewing and he had the most athletic footwork and actions in the 2019 draft. It takes a lot of visible effort for him to make throws from the hole, and because of this, there are some clubs who had him evaluated as an elite second baseman before the draft, but we think it’ll work at short.

There’s a big gap between Nunez’s present physicality and how strong he’ll need to be to make hard big league contact (his left-handed swing is behind the right), but his move forward is athletic, he rotates, there’s barrel accuracy from the right side already, and enough footspeed to make balls in play a bit of a problem. We don’t anticipate Nunez will become an impact bat, but he projects as a low-end regular because of the glove.

Guzman continues to start and he certainly has the stuff for it — in addition to throwing very hard, his changeup and power curveball both flash plus — but his inability to throw strikes (except for an outlier 2017, his walk rate has always been well over 10%) still causes relief projection. He may end up scrapping the changeup in relief since he spikes many of them into the dirt, but the combo of elite velocity and breaking ball depth gives Guzman a shot to pitch high-leverage innings.