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Evaluating pitchers is a real challenge. A combination of experience and knowledge can help one to better understand how variables like velocity, spin, and pitch mix translate to the majors. Even with that information, though, the influence of other factors — like injury risk, like a pitcher’s likelihood of responding to mechanical or mental adjustments — creates a great deal of uncertainty.

Nor is this a challenge that faces only prospect analysts like myself and Eric Longenhagen: even front-office execs who have the benefit of substantial resources — in the form both of data and personnel — have trouble reliably projecting outcomes for otherwise similarly talented young arms.

In my role as a talent evaluator both with FanGraphs and with a few major-league clubs, the question of how best to assess pitchers is obviously one to which I’ve returned with some frequency. In my recent efforts to get some final looks at certain top pitching prospects, however, I began to rethink how Eric Longenhagen and I should approach rankings this offseason. Three prospects, in particular, help to illustrate my concerns.

Tigers righty Matt Manning was the ninth overall pick in 2016, is an athletic 20-year-old who stands 6-foot-6, and was promoted to Double-A last week. In addition to that, he sat 94-96 and hit 98 mph in my look, mixing in a spike curveball that flashed 65 on the 20-80 scale. The positives here are numerous, and very few other minor leaguers could match even a few of these qualities.

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Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Note from Eric: Hey you, this is the last one of these for the year, as the minor-league regular season comes to a close. Thanks for reading. I’ll be taking some time off next week, charging the batteries for the offseason duties that lie ahead for Kiley and me.

D.J. Peters, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Level: Double-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 7   FV: 45+
Line: 4-for-7, 2 HR, 2B (double header)

Notes
A comparison of DJ Peters‘ 2017 season in the Cal League and his 2018 season at Double-A gives us a good idea of what happens to on-paper production when a hitter is facing better pitching and defenses in a more stable offensive environment.

Reports of Peters’ physical abilities haven’t changed, nor is his batted-ball profile different in such a way that one would expect a downtick in production. The 2018 line is, I think, a more accurate distillation of Peters’ abilities. He belongs in a talent bucket with swing-and-miss outfielders like Franchy Cordero, Randal Grichuk, Michael A. Taylor, Bradley Zimmer, etc. These are slugging center fielders whose contact skills aren’t particularly great. Players like this are historically volatile from one season to the next but dominant if/when things click. They’re often ~1.5 WAR players who have some years in the three-win range. Sometimes they also turn into George Springer.

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Episode 832
Eric Longenhagen is the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs dot com. In this episode, he speaks for a period of time either (a) equivalent to or (b) very much resembling one hour. Topics considered: the 18-year-old right-hander in Cleveland’s system who’s better than any prep pitcher eligible for the 2019 draft, the challenge of evaluating Matt Chapman as a prospect, and why a 20 present-value hit grade for a prep prospect make sense.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 4 min play time.)

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Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Cal Stevenson, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Level: Advanced Rookie   Age: 21   Org Rank: NR   FV: 35
Line: 3-for-4, 2B, 4 SB

Notes
College seniors are expected to dominate short-season leagues after signing but what Cal Stevenson has done merits some discussion, in part because he played through a hand injury this spring that may have clouded his actual skill. Stevenson has a .513 OBP at Bluefield because he has walked nearly three times more often than he’s struck out. He’s also stolen 21 bags in 22 attempts since signing. These numbers corroborate scouting reports which compliment Stevenson’s plus speed and bat-to-ball skills before noting his likely corner-outfield defensive projection and lack of characteristic power for the position. But let’s keep an eye on this guy because Toronto has a track record of making swing adjustments to bat-first college players that have helped those players become more viable prospects.

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The process of tweaking THE BOARD never ends. We’ll make it clear when there’s a wholesale update. For the moment, however, we’ve provided here some the most recent additions and subtractions. Players listed in order of preference.

Andruw Monasterio, SS, Nationals, 40 FV
Acquired from the Cubs for Daniel Murphy. Is flying under the radar as a solid utility type who makes contact, runs above average, and plays a solid shortstop.

Moises Gomez, RF, Rays, 40 FV
Just turned 20 at the end of loud full-season debut in Low-A. Is flashing everyday-right-fielder tools.

Bryan Abreu, RHP, Astros, 40 FV
Another Astros power arm up to 97 with above to plus breaking balls. Likely relief fit due to inconsistency.

Otto Lopez, SS, Blue Jays, 35+ FV
A high-energy athlete who can play almost any position. Is more contact-oriented, utility-type fit presently with a chance for better.

Ivan Herrera, C, Cardinals, 35+ FV
Has always performed. Has power and some feel to hit, along with a chance to stick at catcher.

Luis Santana, 2B, Mets, 35+ FV
Lacks physical projection and is currently playing in a crowded infield rotation at Kingsport, but has real feel to hit and has always performed.

C.J. Alexander, 3B, Braves, 35+ FV
A late pick this summer as an old junior-college player. Has plus lefty raw power and has recorded surprising early performance regarding contact. Plays passable defense at all four corner spots.

Recently graduated prospects include Rays SS Willy Adames (60 FV), LHP Jalen Beeks (45 FV), and RHP Diego Castillo (40 FV), along with Jays LHP Ryan Borucki (45 FV) and IF Lourdes Gurriel (40 FV).

We’re due to have some movement among already ranked prospects in the coming weeks, before rankings lock for offseason organizational lists.

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Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Performances from 8/26

Evan White, 1B, Seattle Mariners
Level: High-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 2   FV: 45
Line: 3-for-4, 2B, 3Bho

Notes
We now have a full season of data to help us figure out whether Evan White’s weird profile is going to play. A plus-running backwards guy (bats right, throws left, a generally unfavorable combination due to the defensive limitations and platoon issues caused by both) who plays plus defense at first base, White was slugging .391 at the start of August, which is rather uninspiring for a college hitter in the Cal League. In August, however, White has 30 hits in 90 plate appearances and is slugging .763. He has made subtle changes to his lower half, drawing his front knee back toward his rear hip more than he did at Kentucky, and taking a longer stride back toward the pitcher. White is more often finishing with a flexed front leg, which has helped him go down and lift balls in the bottom part of the strike zone by adjusting his lower half instead of his hands. It’s a more athletic swing that was implemented before White’s explosive August, though he may just be getting comfortable with it now. Read the rest of this entry »

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