Archive for Prospects

Called Up: Will Smith (Not That One) Heads to Chavez Ravine

The first experience I had with Will Smith was watching several people engaged in conversation about what song he should use as his walk-up music. Will’s expression implied that this was not the first time he’d heard such suggestions, but to his credit, he did settle on a few expected classics. After all, Bel Air is only about 20 miles from Chavez Ravine.

The second experience I had with Will Smith was witnessing him throwing the ball down to second base. Quick footwork and an ultra-quick release caused some wide-eyed double-takes aimed at stopwatches in the dugout at Lindquist Field in Ogden, Utah. Times ranged as low as 1.73 and few were higher than the upper-1.8’s. Smith’s athleticism and throwing ability behind the plate was immediately evident to the excited player development staff on hand.

In his first two years at his hometown University of Louisville, Smith hit a total of 15 extra-base hits in 300 plate appearances, showing good bat-to-ball skills but otherwise not a ton of offensive impact. His brief stint in the Cape Cod League after his sophomore season showed much of the same – he was a good athlete who looked like he should be able to provide value behind the plate (a position that was not familiar to Smith upon entering college, as he played the infield in high school), but not packing much punch with the bat.

Louisville’s 2016 team was loaded with draft prospects, and Smith’s performance put him in the same conversations as teammates Corey Ray, Zack Burdi, Drew Harrington, and Kyle Funkhouser. He matched his extra-base hit total from the previous two years combined in almost 100 fewer plate appearances while walking more than he struck out. His defensive prowess behind the plate was on full display as well, as he excelled while catching an impressive pitching staff that included the aforementioned Harrington and Funkhouser as starters, Burdi as a reliever, and then-sophomore Brendan McKay in the rotation.

Like many organizations, the Dodgers were enamored with Smith’s athleticism, high probability of staying behind the plate, and contact skills. The newly developing power pushed Smith’s ceiling even higher and he steadily crept his way up the draft board as the season went along and the power kept coming. The Dodgers had three first-round picks that year and used the first, the 20th overall pick, on Wisconsin high school shortstop Gavin Lux. With the second, the 32nd pick, the organization stayed within the skillset of up-the-middle players with good contact skills and selected Smith. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 32 Prospects: Arizona Diamondbacks

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Diamondbacks Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Jazz Chisholm 21.3 AA SS 2022 55
2 Daulton Varsho 22.9 AA C 2021 50
3 Jon Duplantier 24.9 MLB RHP 2019 50
4 Taylor Widener 24.6 AAA RHP 2019 50
5 Kristian Robinson 18.5 R CF 2023 50
6 Geraldo Perdomo 19.6 A SS 2022 45+
7 Alek Thomas 19.1 A CF 2022 45
8 Alvin Guzman 17.6 R CF 2024 45
9 Liover Peguero 18.4 R SS 2024 40+
10 Matt Tabor 20.9 A RHP 2022 40+
11 Blaze Alexander 20.0 A SS 2022 40+
12 Jake McCarthy 21.8 A+ CF 2021 40+
13 Domingo Leyba 23.7 AAA 2B 2019 40
14 Andy Young 25.0 AA 2B 2020 40
15 Wilderd Patino 17.9 R CF 2023 40
16 Luis Frias 21.0 A- RHP 2022 40
17 Josh Green 23.7 A+ RHP 2021 40
18 Taylor Clarke 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
19 Yoan Lopez 26.4 MLB RHP 2019 40
20 Drew Ellis 23.5 AA 3B 2021 40
21 Pavin Smith 23.3 AA 1B 2020 40
22 Eduardo Diaz 21.9 A CF 2022 40
23 Emilio Vargas 22.8 AA RHP 2020 40
24 Kevin Ginkel 25.2 AAA RHP 2019 40
25 Jhosmer Alvarez 17.9 R RHP 2023 35+
26 Matt Mercer 22.7 A+ RHP 2022 35+
27 Jackson Goddard 22.5 A RHP 2022 35+
28 Jorge Barrosa 18.3 R CF 2023 35+
29 Matt Peacock 25.3 AA RHP 2020 35+
30 Ryan Weiss 22.5 A RHP 2021 35+
31 Tyler Holton 23.0 R LHP 2022 35+
32 Justin Lewis 23.7 A RHP 2021 35+
Reading Options
Detail Level
Data Only
Full
Position Filter
All

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Bahamas (ARI)
Age 21.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/55 40/55 55/55 50/55 55/55

Few infielders in the minors have Jazz’s bat speed, and even fewer have his swagger and flare. Though his high-effort hacks detract from his ability to make contact, Chisholm has shocking power for someone his size. When he really cuts it loose (which is often), he rotates with a violence and explosion reminiscent of Javier Baez and, like Baez, Chisholm is a high-risk prospect whose all-or-nothing style of hitting might ultimately be his undoing.

He has a one-note approach that mostly consists of him trying to ambush first-pitch fastballs. He’ll take some ugly swings when he’s cheating on a heater and instead gets something offspeed, though he has the bat control to put these balls in play if they’re near the zone. His strikeout rate (29% for his career) in undoubtedly a red flag, but because Chisholm is such a clean fit at shortstop (plus range, actions, and arm), he has some wiggle room on the offensive side, and shortstops with this kind of pop don’t exactly grow on trees. There’s star ceiling here, but also volcanic instability.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Wisconsin-Milwaukee (ARI)
Age 22.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 50/50 40/45 55/55 40/45 45/45

The list of catchers with speed comparable to Varsho’s is pretty short. J.T. Realmuto and Jorge Alfaro are two current examples, but Varsho reaches a top speed faster than either of them, and is an actual threat to steal bases. He’s also a doubles machine with natural feel for gap-to-gap contact, and if soft liners trickle between outfielders, Varsho can turn those into hustle doubles.

He remains a below-average receiver and often has trouble firmly squeezing balls in his glove, at times struggling to block breaking stuff in the dirt. Because Varsho is an above-average athlete, most scouts think these aspects of catching will become viable in time and that Varsho may just be behind in this regard due to his cold weather, small school background. His fringe arm strength plays up on scouts’ stopwatches because he’s very quick out of his crouch, so Dbacks games won’t turn into track meets with him behind the plate. He has a good chance to be an offensive-minded, everyday catcher.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Rice (ARI)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 50/50 45/55 50/55 91-96 / 97

Duplantier had been injury free since college (when he dealt with shoulder problems), until 2018, when he had hamstring issues in the spring, and biceps tendinitis later in the summer. The lost innings resulted in an Arizona Fall League stint, during which Duplantier was arguably the best non-Whitley pitching prospect who was a lock to start. Despite the biceps issue, his velocity was fine in the fall. Duplantier sits 93-96 and makes heavy use of three good secondary pitches. The horizontal action on his slider only plays away from righties, but the curveball and changeup will help mitigate some of those issues, as well as the platoon issues that may arise from Duplantier’s lower arm slot.

Drafted: 12th Round, 2016 from South Carolina (NYY)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 50/55 50/55 50/55 90-94 / 96

He doesn’t throw especially hard but the baseball appears to explode out of Widener’s hand, and it often gets on hitters much quicker than they’re expecting. Acquired in that massive, three-team, Steven Souza deal, Widener is a curvaceous 6-foot righty with several above-average pitches and average command. Much of the industry thought he was a reliever coming out of college, but the Yankees and Dbacks bought in on Widener as a starter, and they appear to have been correct.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Bahamas (ARI)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/70 30/60 60/55 40/50 60/60

The 2018 extended spring rehab group at Salt River Fields often included Jake Lamb and Steven Souza. Robinson, still 17 at the time, was just as big as both of them and about as fast as Souza, who is a 60 runner underway. Robinson is a Bahamian man-child, built like an SEC wide receiver and about as fast once he really gets going. He performed fairly well in his first pro season and was pushed to the Pioneer League late in the summer.

He has some swing and miss issues, and his bat path needs some work to get to all the power that’s coming, but the foundation for a combination of contact and power is present. It’s unlikely that Robinson stays in center field forever, and he may even need to move to right while he’s still in the minors, but the power that comes with all that good weight could approach the top of the scale. He’s a high risk, high upside teenage power-hitting prospect.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 184 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/40 60/55 45/55 55/55

Perdomo is among the most advanced switch-hitting teenagers on the planet, possessing innate feel for contact from both sides of the plate despite what can sometimes be an awkward-looking swing. As of list publication, he has a plus-plus walk rate over about 150 pro plate appearances, enough to be confident that he has value-adding feel for the strike zone. Not only that, but he is a potential 55 or 60 glove at short. Already procedurally advanced, Perdomo will likely get quicker and more explosive as his body matures, but his frame is not so large that he projects to third base; he’s a high-probability middle infielder.

The quality of Perdomo’s contact may eventually result in power output beyond his raw grade; he’ll be a star if that happens. If not, a defensive asset at short with a plus bat and excellent ball/strike recognition is still an everyday player.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Mount Carmel HS (IL) (ARI)
Age 19.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 60/60 50/55 40/40

Pre-draft questions about Thomas focused on his physicality, or lack thereof, despite his long track record of hitting against elite competition at amateur showcase events around the country. He’s well-conditioned, but short, built narrowly, and likely to max out with a frame similar to Brett Gardner’s. And Thomas projects to have a similar skillset. It’s rare that a high school hitter from Chicago is this polished, especially one as young as Thomas, who was barely 18 on draft day.

He runs well enough to project in center field (though his reads from the corners are much better right now and he might just be a plus corner glove, also like Gardner), which makes the unenthusiastic, frame-based power projection less concerning. There’s some tweener fourth outfielder risk here because of the lack of power projection and potential move off of center field, but it’s reasonable to hope some combination of contact, on base ability, and defense make up for that and enable Thomas to be a regular.

8. Alvin Guzman, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/55 20/50 60/60 40/55 70/70

Signed for $1.85 million last July, Guzman has yet to set foot on a baseball field in the U.S., but he’s already one of the most exciting players in this system. He has a rare combination of speed, frame, and swing foundation, a triumvirate that gives Guzman a chance to be a five-tool star, something most prospects simply don’t have a chance to become.

He has a loose, whippy swing that he doesn’t always control, and had among the best straightline speed in the 2018 July 2 class. The footspeed makes Guzman a rangy outfield defender and likely to stay in center. His hands have enough life in the box that he might do offensive damage, too. We have no data on important aspects of Guzman’s ultimate profile, making him as risky a prospect as he is skilled. He may not come stateside until this fall for instructional league, unless he so convincingly dominates the DSL that Arizona is compelled to promote him.

40+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/50 20/40 60/60 45/55 55/55

Teams with Extended Spring coverage in Arizona were split as to which of the two Dbacks shortstop prospects they preferred until Geraldo Perdomo separated himself with his summer performance. Some teams were early Peguero advocates, citing his age, superior athleticism, and a build comparable to a young Jean Segura’s.

Like most of Arizona’s teenage shortstop prospects, Peguero earned a late-summer promotion with early-season performance, slashing .309/.356/.457 in the DSL. His swing is shorter than a mid-inning station identification and he takes good at-bats for someone his age, so there’s big ceiling on the hit tool if his timing at the plate improves. He’s also a rangy defender with a plus arm and at least average hands. He can go into the hole, backhand a ball, plant, and hose runners. The frame isn’t favorable for power projection, but Peguero’s hands are so quick that he might be able to pull and lift enough balls to actually produce some homers. His swing is not currently geared for that type of contact, though. Regardless, the bat and defensive ability is promising, as is the frame and athletic ability. He has everyday shortstop upside.

10. Matt Tabor, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Milton Academy HS (MA) (ARI)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/60 35/50 91-94 / 95

Tabor’s velocity seems to have plateaued after it exploded as his wiry frame filled out later in high school. He’s sitting in the low-90s, with a breaking ball and changeup that each flash above average. He’s athletic, his arm slot creates rise on his fastball and bat-missing, vertical action on his breaking stuff, and Tabor has unusually good feel for his changeup, especially for a northeast prep arm. It looks like he’s going to move along developmentally with the advanced teenagers from last year’s rookie-ball group. He’s the best long-term pitching prospect in this system, and has a chance to be a No. 4 starter if the velo finds another gear, more likely a No. 4/5 if it does not.

Drafted: 11th Round, 2018 from IMG Academy HS (FL) (ARI)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 50/55 20/45 45/40 45/50 80/80

Alexander fell out of the top 10 rounds of last year’s draft due to questions about his signability, hit tool, and age relative to his peers. He was almost 19 on draft day, which, combined with the strikeout issues, moved him way down the boards of teams who care about those variables, especially together. He ended up signing for a very reasonable $500,000, then hit .362 against AZL pitching and was eventually promoted to the Pioneer League.

He’s an advanced defender with an 80 arm (the teams most bearish on his bat in high school wanted to see him on the mound) and above-average raw power, which Alexander’s pre-daft proponents insisted he’d get to despite the strikeouts. We don’t know much about the plate discipline aspect of the profile yet. The low end of the spectrum makes the offensive skillset read like Tim Beckham’s, but Alexander projects as a better defender.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Virginia (ARI)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 25/40 60/60 45/50 40/40

McCarthy’s older brother Joe was a hyped prospect who slid on draft day due to a down spring stemming from a back issue. Jake also missed most of his draft spring, but with a broken wrist. He returned not long before the draft and did not look very good, and teams had mixed opinions about him on draft day. Some thought he just needed more time to get back to full strength and speed, while others were scared off by their post-injury looks, which were so bad that multiple scouts told us they thought he may have been better off sitting out rather than giving teams a bad look just before the draft.

At his best, McCarthy shows at least average raw power, plus speed, some feel to hit, and is a center field fit. His swing is naturally geared for opposite field contact, which will likely cap his power output unless he undergoes a swing change. That will be less necessary if McCarthy stays in center field. Season-long failure to hit in the Cal League will leave us with more questions about McCarthy than we had entering the year, especially if his early-season struggles with strikeouts persist.

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (DET)
Age 23.7 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 40/40 30/35 45/45 45/50 50/50

There are lots of different ways to frame arguments about Leyba. On the one hand, he’s a switch-hitting middle infielder who has made lots of contact — Leyba is a .285 career hitter — over six pro seasons. On the other, he has been hurt a lot — shoulder surgery, most recently — and may be painted into too small a defensive corner to be rosterable if he doesn’t hit enough to be a regular. It’s important to be mindful of prospect fatigue creeping in here, as Leyba really broke out during the summer of 2014 when as a teenager, he hit a combined .323 in the Penn and Midwest Leagues. He was sent to Arizona as part of the three-way, Didi Gregorius-headlined trade that offseason, had a bad 2015 in the Cal League, bounced back in 2016, and has basically been hurt since.

Because of Leyba’s size and lack of power, he has to keep making high-end rates of contact to profile as an everyday player. If he lacks sufficient arm strength for shortstop coming out of the shoulder surgery, it puts even more pressure on the hit tool, because a bench role is less feasible for someone without defensive versatility.

14. Andy Young, 2B
Drafted: 37th Round, 2016 from Indiana State (STL)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 45/55 40/40 40/45 50/50

Middle infielders with power are rare and yet Young, who is exactly that, somehow lasted until the 37th round of his draft and signed for just $3,000. This is the Cardinals’ archetypical draftee — a power-first prospect with questionable mobility. Collect enough of these and, through a combination of luck and good player development, some of them will turn into passable defenders and become solid big leaguers or tradable assets like Young, who was sent to Arizona in the Paul Goldschmidt deal.

Though he does most of his damage on pitches on the inner half, Young has enough barrel control to spoil pitches away from him until he gets something he can square up. When Young connects, he does so with power. Buff and square-shouldered, Young’s physicality is a driving component of his power but it’s also why he’s somewhat limited defensively. Young has seen time at shortstop, third base, and left field as a pro but was mostly kept at second base in 2018. He should be a passable defender there, but his lack of defensive versatility could be a barrier to a call-up unless he hits enough to be an everyday player. He’s a realistic internal candidate to play the kind of role Wilmer Flores is currently playing on Arizona’s active roster.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 55/60 25/45 60/60 45/55 60/60

Toolsy and physical, Patino has an exciting combination of speed and power, as well as promising ball/strike recognition. What he appears to lack at this point is barrel control and a bat path that enables the power. Those are important components and may not be easy to fix, especially the bat control issue. But Patino’s ball/strike and breaking ball recognition could help mitigate those issues, and his ceiling (a high OBP center fielder with power) is lofty if they’re overcome. A max-effort player with a fairly mature build, Patino seems poised to have a strong statistical summer against AZL pitching and defenses, perhaps enough that he’ll see some Northwest League time late in the year.

16. Luis Frias, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 45/50 40/50 40/45 93-97 / 99

At times, Frias looks like a stiff, velo-only bullpen prospect. At others, he’s competing in or near the zone with four pitches, including a splitter that got much better over the winter. All four pitches give hitters a vastly different look. Frias’ mid-90s fastball has tailing action, his curveball has vertical depth and eats up hitters who are cheating on velo, the split has late bottom when it’s on, and the slider has horizontal, cutting action. The movement profile of Frias’ fastball may not be the best for missing bats, but it’s likely to be an impact pitch because of the velocity. He could end up with three average secondaries (there’s a chance the split becomes better than that) and enough strikes to start, making him a potential No. 4/5 starter.

17. Josh Green, RHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2018 from Southeastern Louisiana (ARI)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/50 45/55 45/50 91-94 / 96

Green was a 14th round senior sign last year and like most senior signs, had 45/50 stuff in college. He was 90-94 with two average breaking balls and had little college experience because he didn’t move into the rotation until his senior season.

This spring, however, Green’s stuff was up. He was 92-95, touching 96, and flashing plus secondary stuff including a good changeup. The Dbacks may have found something here, though there’s no way to be sure if the velo uptick will hold water or not. He has No. 4 starter stuff if it does, and some scouts with Dbacks coverage this spring prefered Green to several more high-profile arms in the system. He’s currently on the IL with biceps tendinitis.

18. Taylor Clarke, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Charleston (ARI)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 50/50 50/50 50/55 91-94 / 95

Clarke has a four-pitch mix that plays in part because of big extension. He has feel for locating his cutter (glove side) and change (arm side) better than he does for his other pitches, but his fastball sneaks up on hitters because of the extension, so Clarke has command margin for error in the strike zone. He’s a low-variance fifth starter prospect who should see significant big league time this season.

19. Yoan Lopez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Cuba (ARI)
Age 26.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 60/60 45/45 93-97 / 99

Lopez seems to have moved past a tumultuous first few chapters of his Dbacks tenure and settled into a seventh and eighth inning role. He blows upper-90s heat past hitters at the top of the zone and above it, and he generates flaccid swings at his slider when working away from righties. Once developed as a starter, the return of a third pitch might enable Lopez to be an elite reliever down the line, if he doesn’t already have high-leverage stuff. He’s under team control until 2025 and has unusually high trade value for a single-inning reliever, especially for teams unconcerned about his early issues.

20. Drew Ellis, 3B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Louisville (ARI)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 30/55 40/30 40/45 50/50

Ellis has a very quiet, easy swing but somehow still generates plus power. He has middling pitch recognition, which sometimes causes him to mistime pitches. This manifests as lots of awkward or checked swings, but he doesn’t typically flail and whiff, and Ellis is strong enough that the contact has a chance to be meaningful even if he didn’t take a great cut. It’s a fair, power-over-hit corner profile that takes a hit if Ellis should ever need to move to first base. So far he’s been playable, but not impactful, at third.

21. Pavin Smith, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Virginia (ARI)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 35/40 40/40 40/45 45/45

Smith struck out just 12 times as a college junior and had 25 more walks than strikeouts during his entire UVA tenure. Pre-draft questions about his ability to hit for power in games have proven to be pertinent. But Smith hits and he walks, so a relevant swing change, even one that sacrifices some contact, could lead to a breakout here. After some early-season statistical indicators that one might be occurring, Smith’s groundball rate has regressed to the mean. He’s a speculative low-end regular at first base.

22. Eduardo Diaz, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 30/50 55/55 40/50 60/60

After a strong 2017, Diaz spent 2018 injured (twice) and unproductive. His physical tools remain the same; Diaz runs and throws well, and has above-average bat speed and power. While some of his 2018 swoon was a result of injury and the offensive environment in the Midwest League, some of his issues were also swing-related. He has to take big, long, full-armed hacks to generate that bat speed, and so he lacks elegant feel for the barrel. He’s playing both outfield corners now, not center. It makes the hit tool problems more of a concern, but ultimately, this is a college-aged hitter with tools that come off the board fairly early on day two.

23. Emilio Vargas, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 40/50 40/50 89-94 / 95

Vargas’ delivery has a cadence that hitters seem able to time, but it’s graceful, athletic, and repeatable. He has burgeoning control of No. 4/5 starter stuff, led by a two-plane breaking ball that Vargas can locate in the zone and beneath consistently. He’s well built, throws pretty hard, and has performed up through Double-A, and he’s now on the 40-man. There’s a chance he sees his first big league time this season.

24. Kevin Ginkel, RHP
Drafted: 22th Round, 2016 from Arizona (ARI)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/55 55/55 40/40 93-96 / 97

Ginkel’s velocity has exploded since college, and he now sits 93-96 with tough angle. He also has two good secondaries, a change and slider that both have late, downward movement. He’s a likely long-term bullpen piece.

35+ FV Prospects

25. Jhosmer Alvarez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Alvarez signed for $65,000 in 2017. Newly 18 and still fairly projectable, Alvarez has already touched 95 and is flashing a plus split. He has below-average breaking ball spin but sometimes creates good shape and depth on it. He’ll be measured against recently-drafted high school arms in this year’s AZL, and there are some pitchability and breaking ball questions that need answering, but the velo and splitter are promising.

26. Matt Mercer, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Oregon (ARI)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Mercer was a max-effort 94-97 in college, had scattershot fastball command, and a plus changeup. His velo is down and neither of his two breaking balls has great movement. We think he’s a Tyler Clippard-style changeup reliever so long as the velocity returns.

27. Jackson Goddard, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Kansas (ARI)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Goddard was worked hard at Kansas, sometimes throwing around 120 pitches several starts in a row, and his velocity was down after last year’s draft. He’s a big-framed guy with average stuff that plays up due to extension and his fastball has life that competes in the strike zone. Realistically he’s a fifth or sixth starter but let’s see how the fastball plays and what happens to the velocity when Goddard is handled in a way that prioritizes development rather than winning Big 12 games.

28. Jorge Barrosa, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 18.3 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / L FV 35+

Barrosa isn’t toolsy but he has good feel to hit from both sides of the plate and terrific defensive instincts in center field. He’s stout and not very projectable, but already looks like a potential bench out field type who can play all three spots and let you match up late in games.

29. Matt Peacock, RHP
Drafted: 23th Round, 2017 from South Alabama (ARI)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Peacock has a heavy, mid-90s sinker that has enabled him to generate a 78% groundball rate this year. His slider has a 2800 rpm spin rate but visual evaluations of that pitch put it closer to average. His changeup moves and tails, but is often easy to identify out of his hand due to altered release/arm speed. On some level, Peacock is a one-pitch 25-year-old, but on another he has a dominant, grounder-inducing fastball and his secondaries have some characteristics that may just need to be refined for one or both of them to be effective.

30. Ryan Weiss, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Wright State (ARI)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Weiss is a four-pitch (maybe five — there may be both a slider and cutter) strike-thrower whose overhand, trebuchet delivery creates vertical action on most of his stuff. He may be a backend starter.

31. Tyler Holton, LHP
Drafted: 9th Round, 2018 from Florida State (ARI)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Holton blew out his elbow in his first 2018 start at Florida State and needed Tommy John. He was only throwing 87-90 before the injury but both his changeup and breaking ball were flashing plus. So long as his stuff comes back after surgery, he’ll probably carve the lower minors. There are some instances of velocity upticks coming out of Tommy John (Walker Buehler is a prominent recent example) and if Holton has one, he’ll rocket up this list.

32. Justin Lewis, RHP
Drafted: 12th Round, 2018 from Kentucky (ARI)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lewis got $125,000 in the 2018 12th round. He’s very tall, long, and is athletic for his size, and he has great changeup feel. He has below-average fastball velocity, but it plays up a few ticks because of extension, and Lewis doesn’t often make crushable mistakes. His slider is okay when it’s located, but the changeup is Lewis’ best swing and miss option against hitters of either handedness. He has sixth starter stuff on the surface, but there’s a chance that 6 or better command develops late (Lewis is already 23) because of Lewis’ size. If that happens, he’ll pitch in the back of a rotation.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Upper-Level Depth Types
Tim Locastro, OF
Kevin Cron, 1B
Jamie Westbrook, LF

Locastro would have been in the 40 FV tier on this list if he were still playing the infield. He’s a plus runner who can play all three outfield spots, he makes a lot of contact (career .290 pro hitter), and he gets hit by pitches in about 6% of his plate appearances, which is twice what is typical for the major’s active leaders like Shin-Soo Choo, and the recently retired Chase Utley. He’s 26 and looks like an up and down or fifth outfielder. Cron, also 26, has Quad-A first base-only traits but sometimes guys like this break out when they get a big league chance (Luke Voit, Jesus Aguilar, Christian Walker). Some sustain that success; others do not. Westbrook made a relevant swing change over 2017-2018 and went from a contact-only hitter to one with some relevant pop, just not enough to play left field everyday.

Catchers, Including a Speculative One
Buddy Kennedy, 3B
Dominic Miroglio, C
Andrew Yerzy, C
Jose Herrera, C
Ryan January, C

Kennedy is really hitting as a 20-year-old in the Midwest League. His swing is handsy and weird, and we’re pretty skeptical about the bat (especially the game power aspect) despite Kennedy’s pro track record of hitting. Athletically, he’s not a lock to stay at third base. His bat would have the best chance of profiling at catcher and he has traits (plus arm, elite makeup) that make a conversion seem feasible. Miroglio has a plus arm and is a good receiver. He may be a backup. Yerzy has big power but probably ends up at first base. Herrera has been hurt a few times during his career, and he missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, but he has had stretches of good offensive performance before and he’s hitting now, albeit as a 22-year-old repeating the Midwest League. He’s a switch-hitting sleeper with some warts. January has a nice lefty swing and plus bat speed, but he was left back in Extended and is now 22, a sign he’s behind Herrera on the org depth chart.

Young Pitching
Diomede Sierra, LHP
Junior Mieses, RHP
Junior Garcia, LHP
Mack Lemiuex, LHP
Levi Kelly, RHP

Sierra, who shares a birthday with Butters Stotch, is a projectable, 17-year-old, low three-quarters lefty who was sitting 88-90 as an amateur and has some sweeping slider feel. Mieses has a long way to go as a strike thrower but he’s young, athletic, and will bump 96. His slurve is also promising. Garcia and Lemieux have good breaking balls, each averaging about 2700 rpm; Garcia throws a little harder. They need a way to get righties out with the new relief usage rules coming. Kelly throws the hardest of this group, often touching 96-97, but he’s a stiff, relief-only prospect for us.

Guys with Changeups
Harrison Francis, RHP
Bo Takahashi, RHP
Joey Krehbiel, RHP
Ryan Atkinson, RHP
Adrian Del Moral, RHP

This is self-explanatory. Francis has the best combo of youth and projection in this group. You could argue Takahashi’s best secondary is his curveball, but the change is good. He’s a strike-throwing four-pitch guy who could be a spot starting, swingman type. Krehbiel and Atkinson are changeup-centric relievers who are close to the bigs. Del Moral is a 20-year-old pitchability prospect with four pitches, and is mostly 92-93 with the heater.

System Overview

Aside from the contingent of upper-level pitching (Duplantier, Widener, Clarke), this system is simmering with 17-20 year olds. It’s about to be even more flush with players in that age range, as the Dbacks prepare for what will almost certainly be a huge draft class. They have eight of the first 100 picks thanks to things like the Goldschmidt trade, the Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock free agent departures, and an unsigned first rounder from last year’s class (Matt McLain, who had a disappointing freshman season at UCLA), and it has been all hands on deck for the front office in preparation. Even members of the pro scouting department have been out at games this spring as the org prepares for what might be the most important single day for an individual franchise on this year’s baseball calendar.

Arizona has been a pleasant, competitive surprise this season despite operating in semi-rebuild mode this past winter. During that time, they acquired players who aren’t “prospects” but who project to be part of the team when it’s truly contending again. Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly will be around for the next half decade, as will versatile uber-athlete, Ketel Marte. Their depth, especially on the pitching side, is now being stress-tested by injuries. Should it soon prove fatal to their record, trades of veteran performers like Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Greg Holland, and Zack Greinke could add to the system, too. This could be a top five farm by the end of the summer if some of the youngest guys (Guzman, Perdomo, Robinson, etc.) improve and perform.


Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/24/19

12:11

Kiley McDaniel: Hello! I’ve taken a mini vacation to regain my sanity from going to baseball games but I’m also still doing some work so I guess I can never really escape these things.

12:12

Kiley McDaniel: On a brighter note!

12:12

Kiley McDaniel: Went long on the Carter Stewart Japan signing and broke it down into six big takeaways from the signing, which I think is being underrated for it’s long-term effects on the industry: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-scott-boras-got-carter-stewarts-groove…

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: Also went long once again on one topic: the international draft. Jeff Passan and Eric joined me to walk through all the parties involved, possible structure (trading of picks!!!), and motivations: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdo…

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: A mock is coming next week. I would guess it will be on Tuesday and it will be different in format than the last one

12:14

Kiley McDaniel: Here is the previous one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

Read the rest of this entry »


How Scott Boras Got Carter Stewart’s Groove Back

ESPN’s Jeff Passan was first with the full details about Eastern Florida State College RHP Carter Stewart’s (our 56th-ranked prospect for next month’s 2019 draft) shocking signing with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Pacific League. Stewart will receive $7 million over the next six years, enabling him to qualify for MLB free agency at age 25 (through the new tiered posting process) when the deal ends, provided he plays in the Pacific League in parts of all six years.

There are a number of impactful outcomes from this deal, so I’ll take them one at a time:

1. This is surely more money than Stewart could’ve gotten through the draft and MLB path over the next six years.

Passan and J.J. Cooper took a stab at projecting Stewart’s earnings over the next six seasons in America, and I’ve come to the same conclusion. Charitably projecting roughly $2 million in a draft bonus, something like $20,000 to $30,000 in total minor league salaries (depending on how quickly he gets to the big leagues), and something between $750,000 and $1.8 million in the big leagues (again, depending on when he gets there and if he stays). The rosiest versions of those numbers doesn’t even get Stewart to $4 million, which is still about $1 million less than the slot value ($4.98 million) at the pick where he didn’t sign with the Braves last year, roughly what he could’ve expected without the dispute over his wrist.

2. This sets up an alternative path for draft prospects to gain negotiating leverage, likely starting with next month’s draft.

Going overseas for six years and then coming back to a free agent payday is only a move that an elite prospect that’s solely focused on baseball and somewhat culturally open-minded would approach, so this won’t be a negotiating tactic for the whole draft. For prep or first-year junior college prospects projected for the top two rounds, however, this could be a real bargaining tactic, even if it’s never fully explored by the player. Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Chat 5/22/19

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from Los Angeles. Let’s get to it.

12:01
Tim: When’s the next mock?

12:01
Greg: Any new top 10 buzz?

12:01
Big Fan: Can we hope, wish and dream about a new Mock Draft soon?

12:01
Tommy N.: Any draft rumblings for the top 10 specifically with the Padres?

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: yeesh, it’s barely been a week, guys.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio Presents: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Ep. 15

UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 15

This is the 15th episode of a sorta weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men.

This episode is the first, and possibly only, Important Episode, focusing on news of a potential international draft, as reported by our guest, ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Please support him by purchasing any Elmo products, authentic or knock-off.

0:20 – Jeff outright rejects the intro
1:22 – Kiley tries again, leaning into Jeff’s unlikability
2:09 – Jeff breaks down the news as he’s reported it
2:33 – Jeff is under attack in his own car and makes metaphorical lemonade
4:15 – They touch on the human issue of how the pro players who are discarded by clubs in developing countries are handled
6:20 – The soon-to-be-best-prospect-in-baseball instance of Wander Franco and his experience in this system
8:42 – Comparing the typical Latin prospect to a typical suburban American one, and where the MLB Players’ Association and MLB come in
11:10 – MLB’s morally-driven approach to human trafficking re: Cuba could impact how the international draft is put together
12:50 – The MLBPA’s response to Jeff’s report and does a point the MLBPA makes suggest MLB planned this whole progression out years in advance?
15:40 – Is this just step one of a few for MLB? How did the MLBPA allow us to get here?
17:50 – Why don’t the international pools track the draft pools? How close should they be?
20:45 – How to use hard slotting to solve some problems and then transition into making July 2nd into a TV event and a pilot program for doing it with the domestic draft.
24:35 – Where does this go next? What’s the timetable for making the change? Can Jeff really learn Spanish?
25:40 – Elmo makes an appearance?
26:55 – Jeff details how anti-social he is on planes and how this prepares him to be a general manager
29:30 – Eric joins the podcast for the second segment and answers Kiley’s burning question
31:00 – Eric and Kiley break down the international draft possibilities for each stakeholder, starting with the 5-10 most efficient MLB clubs in Latin America. Kiley broke down earlier this year what the ROI is on an international dollar spent and is it big.
33:30 – They break down the bottom tier of clubs, with less infrastructure and with smaller staffing budgets
36:00 – The big unanswered question: how much will MLB assert themselves in controlling the scouting environment?
40:45 – The MLB Players Association’s role in negotiations. Kiley mentioned in this year’s July 2nd preview that clubs can get steroid tests on prospects as young as age 13, which can’t possibly be the status quo for long.
42:13 – The next stakeholders: the kids that are signing an international amateurs
46:30 – What happens to a 17 year old who opted not to sign as a 16 year old? How would the structure of the draft affect this? Would it lead to trading of picks? A TV event?
51:25 – In fairness, this would also be great for us
52:27 – MLB’s role and motivations in improving this situation. Here’s the first time Kiley wrote about MLB likely using the overage money to help institute a draft.
58:30 – Eric’s experience watching fringe international prospects get released from a complex
59:55 – Could this indirectly affect the amount of minor league teams?
1:02:15 – The humanitarian element, particularly in Venezuela
1:04:00 – The last major stakeholder: the buscones
1:07:00 – The least important stakeholder: Kiley and Eric

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hour 12 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Called Up: Brendan Rodgers

The Rockies’ addition of top prospect Brendan Rodgers — No. 1 in Colorado’s system, No. 28 overall — to their big-league roster completes part of a journey that seemed preordained when Rodgers was still just a high school underclassman. As is the case with lots of prominent Floridian high schoolers, Rodgers was evaluated early thanks to the endless parade of both varsity and travel baseball in Florida. Scouts were interested in Rodgers very early, as Kiley noted in his initial 2015 draft rankings.

Rodgers was a standout last summer with scouts saying he’d go in the top 50 picks as a high school junior, then he took a huge step forward this summer when his bat speed and raw power jumped at least a notch, if not two.

Those rankings, which Rodgers topped at the time, were produced after the high school summer showcase season, during which Rodgers looked fine at shortstop and continued to perform against the best pitching in the country. There were tepid evaluations of his defense and some concerns, from model-driven clubs, regarding his advanced age. But Rodgers’ offensive consistency and mix of physical talents (he had among the best raw power in the class at the time) overrode those notions.

When draft day arrived, Rodgers ranked No. 2 on the FanGraphs draft board. The Rockies drafted him No. 3 overall. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 29 Prospects: San Francisco Giants

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Francisco Giants. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Giants Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Joey Bart 22.4 A+ C 2020 55
2 Heliot Ramos 19.7 A+ CF 2023 45+
3 Marco Luciano 17.6 R SS 2023 45+
4 Alexander Canario 19.0 R RF 2023 45
5 Gregory Santos 19.7 A RHP 2021 45
6 Sean Hjelle 22.0 A RHP 2021 40+
7 Melvin Adon 24.9 AA RHP 2020 40+
8 Shaun Anderson 24.5 MLB RHP 2019 40+
9 Logan Webb 22.5 AA RHP 2021 40+
10 Patrick Hilson 18.7 R CF 2024 40+
11 Camilo Doval 21.9 A+ RHP 2021 40+
12 Seth Corry 20.5 A LHP 2023 40
13 Tyler Beede 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
14 Luis Toribio 18.6 R 3B 2024 40
15 Mike Gerber 26.9 MLB RF 2019 40
16 Jairo Pomares 18.8 R CF 2023 40
17 Ray Black 28.9 MLB RHP 2019 40
18 Ricardo Genoves 20.0 A- C 2022 40
19 Blake Rivera 21.4 A RHP 2023 40
20 Jake Wong 22.7 A RHP 2022 40
21 Chris Shaw 25.6 MLB 1B 2019 40
22 Jalen Miller 22.4 AA 2B 2020 40
23 Jacob Gonzalez 20.9 A 3B 2023 35+
24 Abiatal Avelino 24.3 MLB 2B 2020 35+
25 George Bell 21.0 R OF 2022 35+
26 Jandel Gustave 26.6 MLB RHP 2019 35+
27 Raffi Vizcaino 23.5 AA RHP 2020 35+
28 Sam Wolff 28.1 AAA RHP 2019 35+
29 Jose Marte 22.9 A+ RHP 2020 35+
Reading Options
Detail Level
Data Only
Full
Position Filter
All

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Georgia Tech (SFG)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 45/55 40/30 55/60 55/55

Bart was a solid mid-tier prep prospect in the Atlanta suburbs who a couple of clubs really liked, but they ultimately couldn’t meet his price, pushing him to Georgia Tech. He made the leap between his sophomore and junior years, growing into his athleticism and developing plus raw power along with above average defensive tools and arm strength. The defensive tools are especially rare for a catcher of Bart’s size, as it’s much easier for a more compact-framed player to excel behind the plate. Bart has the rare ability to slow the game down defensively and scouts rave about his makeup, game calling, and game preparation.

At the plate, Bart has big power and gets to it pretty often in games, particularly to his pull side, where he hit a majestic shot that was never found over the facade of the football complex in left field at Georgia Tech’s stadium. But while he is exceptional behind the plate, Bart doesn’t have the same ability to slow the game at it, with elevated strikeout rates in his draft year and just okay pitch selection. The bat speed is good and he doesn’t have trouble against velocity, and some scouts point to his solid pro debut as evidence that Bart was just frustrated by being pitched around and developed some bad habits in college. Since literally everything else you could want except for contact is already present, most assume that Bart will figure out a way to get to a 40 to 50 bat with above average game power and above average defense, even if it’s on the job in the big leagues in 2020. He broke his hand early in 2019 and will miss several weeks. He’s a strong Arizona Fall League possibility.

45+ FV Prospects

2. Heliot Ramos, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (SFG)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/45 55/60 30/55 60/55 45/50 60/60

After he looked like a newly-drafted force of nature during the summer of 2017, Ramos’ physical tools actually regressed last year. The bat speed and quality of contact both dipped, and Ramos was noticeably out-shined by the other (mostly older) Futures Game participants during batting practice. Ramos developed some feel for opposite field contact during this span, something he retained as the power returned this spring. He’s hitting lasers to all fields now, adept at peppering the right center field gap.

Built like, and as fast as, a bowling ball SEC running back, Ramos is going to stay in center field for a while but most scouts think he’ll eventually move to a corner. That could be a problem if such a move occurs sooner than anticipated, as Ramos has had whiff/discipline issues in the past, though they’ve been much more palatable this year. He has Mitch Haniger/Randal Grichuk-ish tools. Staying in center will be important, as will retaining some of this new plate discipline. If both happen, Ramos is going to be a highly entertaining star.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 60/70 20/60 50/50 40/50 50/55

Luciano’s broad, square, muscular shoulders look like they belong to a D1 high school football prospect. He has one of the better frames of all the 17-year-old hitters in pro ball, and plenty of room to add power to a body that already produces a lot of it. Luciano has explosive hands and a natural uppercut swing. He hits many more balls out during BP than is typical for a hitter this age, and has taken his peers deep in games, too.

Luciano’s feet and actions are workable on the infield but he struggles with throwing velocity and accuracy when he’s forced to throw from a lower arm slot, as shortstops often are. If he can’t correct that, he’ll need to move to the outfield. If he can, this is a shortstop with 80 bat speed. Luciano is a potential superstar. Much of his profile (the plate discipline, ultimate defensive home) is still not in focus, but this young man has rare physical talent.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 60/65 30/60 55/50 40/50 60/60

This system has three teenagers with awesome bat speed, and Canario is one. Some of his batting practice sessions during the Giants’ new January instructional camp were even up there with Joey Bart’s. But much of Canario’s game is unkempt. He has mediocre natural timing and feel to hit, and his front side often leaks, which impacts his ability to spoil breaking stuff away from him. His lower half got thicker and stronger during the offseason, making it more likely that he ends up in right field rather than center. But this is a potential middle-of-the-order hitter because of the raw power; the swing has natural loft, and the early-career plate discipline data is strong. There’s huge ceiling if the hit/approach component improves, but of course, this type of prospect often fails to fully actualize.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/60 45/50 35/50 92-96 / 98

The Giants proactively sent Santos, who was acquired from Boston as part of the Eduardo Nunez deal, to the Northwest League as an 18-year-old because his stuff was simply too powerful for AZL youngsters. He was 93-96 with sinker and cutter variation last year, and his breaking ball was often plus. He threw more strikes in affiliated ball than he did during the spring in extended, then arrived to 2019 camp with a better changeup. A strong breakout candidate, Santos had a shoulder strain in late-April. There’s probably no more velo coming because Santos is a mature-bodied guy, but he already throws hard so that doesn’t really matter. He has mid-rotation upside as long as the command improvement holds and this shoulder issue doesn’t become chronic.

40+ FV Prospects

6. Sean Hjelle, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Kentucky (SFG)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 11″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 45/55 91-94 / 96

Hjelle body comps to a young Pau Gasol and is remarkably athletic for his size. His delivery is graceful and fluid, and he has no trouble repeating it nor fielding his position, as he’s quick off the mound to corral bunts and cover first base, both of which can be challenging for XXL pitchers. Hjelle’s (it’s pronounced like peanut butter and _____ ) fastball only sits in the low-90s but plays up because of extension, life, and the angle created by his height. Those traits in concert with one another make for a heater that competes for whiffs in the zone. The secondaries are closer to average, often below, though Hjelle can locate them. He’s a pretty safe No. 4/5 starter candidate, though we might be underrating the impact of Hjelle’s size on hitters’ discomfort.

7. Melvin Adon, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
80/80 60/60 40/40 30/40 96-100 / 102

A raw, arm strength goon for what seemed like forever, Adon found slider feel late last season and had dominant stretches where he looked like a potential closer. He has carried that into the early part of this season, more frequently dotting his slider just off the plate to his glove side and even getting it over for strikes when he’s behind in counts. Adon still just kind of chucks his fastball and hopes it arrives near the plate, but he’s going to get away with mistakes in the zone because of the velocity. Likely to have harrowing bouts of wildness, Adon has high-leverage/closer stuff and could be one of the better relief pitchers in baseball at some point, though he may already be in his late-20s once things really click.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Florida (BOS)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 50/50 45/50 55/55 40/45 91-95 / 96

Anderson has an unusually deep repertoire for a pitcher who scouts overwhelmingly project into the bullpen. He has a two seamer, a four seamer that has natural cut to it when he locates to his glove side, a slider (his best pitch dating back to college), and a changeup which has been the focal point of development since Anderson entered pro ball. A casualty of Florida’s ability to recruit and develop pitching, Anderson was a college reliever who would’ve been starting on just about every other college team in the country, so there’s a reason he lacks some of the finer attributes scout want to see from a starter. He could be an inefficient No. 4/5, but he might be really good in a multi-inning relief role where he throws 80 or more innings.

9. Logan Webb, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Rocklin HS (CA) (SFG)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 45/50 40/45 91-94 / 95

Webb spent most of 2016 on the shelf due to Tommy John, and the little bit of 2017 for which he was healthy he spent in a well-manicured relief role. Then he broke out in 2018, as he retained big stuff through a move back to the rotation. He was holding a tailing 92-95 deep into starts, topping out at 97, and spinning in a dastardly, bat-missing breaking ball. Unrefined fastball control led to a lot of bullpen projection, but Webb hadn’t pitched very much because of injury, so it seemed possible that it might yet improve.

Early in 2019, Webb’s stuff was down a bit, more 91-94 and touching 95, before he got popped for PEDs and was suspended for 80 games. He’s missed about two years of development due to the TJ and this suspension and developmentally is more like a junior college arm than an advanced Double-A prospect. He has Top 100 stuff (assuming the 2018 heater comes back after this suspension) and if he can somehow refine fastball command and the changeup (or a third pitch of some kind), he could be a No. 4 starter. We don’t know how the PEDs, which Webb denies knowledge of using, may have impacted his stuff. He seems like a logical Fall League candidate.

Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Nettleton HS (AR) (SFG)
Age 18.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/35 50/55 20/45 70/70 45/55 70/70

Of all the players we’ve written up on the team reports (there are about 1,000 on The Board and well over that if you count the Others of Note section of the lists) the gap between what Hilson is now and what he might be is perhaps the biggest. He has scintillating physical ability. Speed, arm strength, barrel quickness, burgeoning power, hit-thieving defensive ability in center field. But he is raw as steak tartare and often takes hapless, juvenile swings that demonstrate an alarming lack of baseball feel, as evidenced by his 67 strikeouts in 166 2018 at-bats.

Likely a long term project who will move through the minors with this exciting young contingent of talent from Latin America, Hilson’s chances of even making the big leagues are probably in the 20-30% range, and that may be optimistic. But on the scouting card, the tools read like David Dahl’s or Starling Marte’s, so there’s a chance for a star turn here, as well. It will likely take a long time and there will likely be developmental bumps in the road, but Hilson has monster, long-term potential and would be a peacock feather in the cap of Giants player dev if he can realize it.

11. Camilo Doval, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 60/70 20/40 89-98 / 100

This is one of the weirder pitchers in all of the minors. At times, Doval will sit in the upper-90s with cutting action; at others, he’s living in the low-90s with no movement. Scouts think the cause is that he doesn’t grip the baseball in a consistent manner. Doval also has a delivery totally unique to him. It’s a long, swooping, side-winding look that creates cut/rise on the ball. He also throws a hard, horizontal slider.

The Trackman readout for Doval is shocking. His primary fastball/cutter spins in at about 2700 rpm, which is incredible considering how hard he throws. He also generates nearly seven feet of extension, and the effective velocity of his fastball is about 2 mph harder than it’s actual velo.

He has outings where he walks everyone and gives up a bunch of runs before he accrues an out, and he has outings where he’s untouchable for several innings. It’d be somewhat terrifying to acquire Doval if the outcome of a trade for him dictated one’s job security, but his stuff is bewitching and we think he has a chance to be an elite bullpen weapon if he ever figures things out.

40 FV Prospects

12. Seth Corry, LHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Lone Peak HS (UT) (SFG)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 40/45 90-94 / 95

Corry was a pretty raw fastball/curveball high school prospect whose changeup got much better throughout last season, which is especially relevant because that pitch’s movement pairs better with his fastball than the curve does. He’s a fairly stiff, short strider and often has scattershot fastball control, so there’s significant relief risk here. But Corry’s pitch mix is more complete than most of the other arms in this system and he’s the youngest non-Santos arm on the main section of this list, so you could argue he belongs up near Hjelle if you think he ends up starting. Realistically he’s a No. 4/5 or a three-pitch relief piece.

13. Tyler Beede, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Vanderbilt (SFG)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 55/55 40/40 91-95 / 98

It appears that Beede has ditched the cutter/slider thing bestowed upon him for a time and is, as he was in college, a fastball/curveball/changeup guy again. His velocity also seems to have been reborn. He’s once again lighting up radar guns with a mid-90s heater that has touched 98. His changeup has power sinking movement and should miss bats when Beede locates it competitively, but he’s more consistently able to do that with his curveball. Fastball control likely keeps Beede in the bullpen even though he did have stretches this spring where he looked like a mid-rotation starter. He’s 26, but looks like a strong three-pitch reliever. Maybe there’s a chance for high-leverage or multi-inning work here.

14. Luis Toribio, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 25/55 40/30 40/45 55/55

Built at age 18 like Aramis Ramirez was in his prime, it’s likely that Toribio’s promising pro debut was at least somewhat a product of physical maturity. He has above-average raw power already and generates it with a comfortable, understated swing. He’s shown feel for contact in games. He’s too pull-heavy at times, or at least tries to pull pitches he shouldn’t, ones he should just take. So there’s power, early indicators that the contact skills will be fine, and a chance to stay at third. The size/frame means there’s risk Toribio ends up at first base if he gets bigger, and also probably means we shouldn’t expect much of an increase in raw power. He has a chance to be an everyday third baseman, and lots of other viable outs if he can’t get there, including a corner infield platoon of some kind and a low-end first baseman. Or maybe more power comes, and he’s a 50 at first.

15. Mike Gerber, RF
Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from Creighton (DET)
Age 26.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 50/55 50/50 55/55 50/50

Boxed out of a surprisingly crowded corner outfield situation in Detroit, Gerber should get an opportunity to become a lefty-hitting platoon corner outfielder with power. He has at least above-average raw and has adjusted his swing to better ensure consistent lift. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he mashes right-handed pitching and plays a very good corner outfield, so he might play against lefties, too, and just hit toward the bottom of the order on those days. He’s older, but is a clear fit in a limited but necessary role.

16. Jairo Pomares, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (SFG)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/45 20/35 55/50 45/50 45/45

The Giants signed Pomares for just shy of $1 million during the 2018 July 2 period. He’s already almost 19 and is, as one can probably guess, a little more advanced and a little less projectable than most other recent J2 signees. Pomares is a center field prospect with feel to hit. His swing is geared for all-fields contact and while he has above-average bat speed, it’s unlikely that he hits for power without a swing adjustment. He looked a little thicker and stronger than anticipated during San Francisco’s January instructs and early in the spring, so there may be less certainty that he stays in center than there was when Pomares was in Cuba. He looks more like a fourth outfield prospect than a potential regular right now, but Cuban players often have long stretches away from baseball and training, so what we’ve seen so far in Arizona might just be rust.

17. Ray Black, RHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2011 from Pittsburgh (SFG)
Age 28.9 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
80/80 55/55 35/35 96-99 / 102

Black is the oldest player on The Board and he’s only here, despite a career rife with injury and inconsistency, because his stuff is so good. He’s among the hardest throwers in professional baseball and also one of the best at spinning the baseball. He is wild and the quality of his secondary stuff is inconsistent, but at times he looks unhittable. He struck out 33 in 23 big league innings last year, but he’s currently on the IL with a forearm strain. He could one day pitch his way into high-leverage innings as long as he has this kind of stuff, which he has maintained despite the many maladies.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (SFG)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 30/45 20/20 45/50 50/50

Built like a one of the moai sculptures on Easter Island, Genoves faces size-based questions about his ability to catch long term. But he has a plus arm, he’s procedurally advanced for a 20-year-old, and he has the leadership qualities and intangibles that have an outsized impact at catcher. He also has plus power, enough to put balls out to right center, though Genoves’ current approach to contact doesn’t often enable it. He pulls just about everything.

Genoves’ future is heavily dependent on him staying behind the plate and ideally, he’d catch more than just 33 games (last year’s total at an affiliate, not including extended) throughout the course of this year, and show that the workload doesn’t detract from his bat or agility. The power gives him a shot to be a regular, though a backup role is probably more likely.

19. Blake Rivera, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Wallace State CC (SFG)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 40/45 55/55 40/45 93-97 / 98

The Giants drafted Rivera after his 2017 freshman season, but he went back to school, raised his stock, and was the first JUCO arm off the board the following year. He has power stuff — 93-96 with cut action at times, and a plus curveball — but is wild and may be a reliever, though probably a very good one.

20. Jake Wong, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Grand Canyon (SFG)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 40/45 40/50 92-95 / 96

Wong was holding 93-96 with sink deep into games as a junior, he throws strikes, and he occasionally snaps off a good curveball. Changeup development and refined command are areas of need, and they will likely dictate Wong’s ceiling, which is probably that of a No. 4/5 starter who induces weak contact rather than strikeouts.

21. Chris Shaw, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Boston College (SFG)
Age 25.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 50/55 70/70 40/40 40/40 55/55

Shaw is one of many whiff-heavy corner bats with huge power who floats around the upper levels of the minors, putting up big power numbers while struggling to find a big league role if their parent club has someone at 1B/DH. The Giants have tried Shaw in the outfield but scouts don’t think he’s playable out there. Shaw has the advantage of hitting left-handed, but unless the Giants make a concerted effort to give him reps soon (they demoted him to Double-A to start 2019, so not a great sign) he’ll probably bounce around on waivers until a team with 40-man space — and the time to see whether or not Shaw can hit big league pitching — gives him a chance. Sometimes this is how clubs fall into Jesus Aguilar and Christian Walker, but it’s also the fate of many a Quad-A hitter.

22. Jalen Miller, 2B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Riverwood HS (GA) (SFG)
Age 22.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 50/50 40/45 55/55 45/50 40/40

Miller’s lack of arm strength really boxes him in at second base, which means he has to hit enough to be a regular there because defensive versatility, and therefore a viable utility role, isn’t part of his profile. Much of the pressure will be on the bat to ball skills as Miller is a compact guy with average bat speed. He probably needs to be a 60 bat or better to play every day, which is feasible considering that his attributes, dating back to high school, are lead by a short swing and barrel control. He’s off to a good start in 2019, walking nearly as much as he has struck out.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Chaparral HS (AZ) (SFG)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/70 30/55 45/40 40/40 55/55

Though he looked somewhat better defensively during January workouts, Gonzalez still projects over to first base for all the scouts we’ve spoken with, and his inability to hit breaking stuff makes that pretty scary. He’s a hard worker with a frame built for longevity and he has arguably the best raw power in this system. His future looks much like Shaw’s, but Jacob hasn’t had the in-game power output yet.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 24.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/45 50/50 30/30 55/55 50/50 60/60

Last year, Avelino shuttled back and forth between Double-A (which he crushed) and Triple-A (which he did not) while with the Yankees, then was sent to San Francisco at the end of August as part of the McCutchen trade. He has rare power for a viable defensive shortstop but hits the ball on the ground so much that it’s highly unlikely he does much in-game damage with the bat unless his swing is overhauled. And while solid at short, Avelino’s not so good that you’d live with zero offense and play him everyday. He’ll likely be a glove-first utility guy, but he hasn’t played much second or third base yet and he’s already 24.

25. George Bell, OF
Drafted: 13th Round, 2018 from Connors JC (OK) (SFG)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Former MVP George Bell has two sons also named George Bell in pro ball — this one and George Bryner Bell, who is with Oakland. This Bell is a body/power/speed junior college sleeper who has some plate discipline and bat control issues. He has a shot to break out in the Northwest League this summer and merit a promotion to Low-A for the stretch run. August will be a key time to evaluate him if that’s the case.

26. Jandel Gustave, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 26.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/55 40/40 96-98 / 99

We typically slot relievers in their mid or late-20s in the honorable mention section of lists, especially if they’ve had injury issues. But the four you’re about to read about all have premium stuff and, at least at times, look capable of handling late-inning duty. Arm injuries have limited Gustave to 20 total innings since 2016, but his fastball was back into the upper-90s this spring. His slider is closer to average right now, which may mean he maxes out in a lower-leverage role.

27. Raffi Vizcaino, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/45 50/55 50/55 40/40 91-95 / 98

Vizcaino has been hurt for long stretches during the last few years and was moved to the bullpen this spring. He’ll touch 98 but sit mostly 91-95, and he has an above-average changeup, as well as two lesser breaking balls.

28. Sam Wolff, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2013 from New Mexico (TEX)
Age 28.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 204 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 55/55 40/40 40/40 92-95 / 96

Wolff was part of the Matt Moore trade and he’s spent time in Double-A every year since 2016. He has standard 40 FV, middle relief stuff, but he’s 28 and has a long injury history.

29. Jose Marte, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/45 50/55 35/40 90-96 / 97

Marte has a four-pitch mix and generates plus-plus extension, which makes his mid-90s fastball play up. We have his 2018 breaking ball spin rate on The Board because this year’s are way, way down, likely due to injury.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Power Bats
Diego Rincones, OF
Zach Green, 3B/1B
Sandro Fabian, OF
Jacob Heyward, OF
Kwan Adkins, OF

Rincones, 19, is a plump corner outfielder with quick, strong hands. He’s posted two consecutive years of strong offensive statistics (AZL and NWL) and has plus raw power, but he’s a corner-only guy with a high-maintenance build, so he’ll need to keep doing that. Green was a minor league free agent who had an average exit velo of about 95 mph through this season’s first month. He has plus-plus power and barely hits the ball on the ground (25% GB%). Fabian looked like a potential contact/power corner outfielder but his approach is just too aggressive and he’s posted sub-.300 OBPs for two years. Heyward, 23, is a bit older than most prospects at Double-A but he has plus raw power and athleticism. He needs to keep walking a lot to balance the strikeouts. Adkins was a two-sport athlete at Northwestern State (he played wide receiver as a junior) who didn’t have statistical success in college, but has so far flashed all-fields power against younger pro pitching.

Relief Potential
Sam Coonrod, RHP
Garrett Williams, LHP
Franklin Van Gurp, RHP
Kervin Castro, RHP

Coonrod touches 99 and has a pretty good cutter and curveball. Williams is a low-90s lefty with a plus curveball but he’s quite wild. Van Gurp could be a traditional sinker/slider reliever if he develops above-average command. Castro is a projectionless 20-year-old who throws hard (93-96 this spring) with flat, up-in-the-zone plane that’s suited for missing bats. His secondaries are raw, but he missed most of the last two years with injury.

Younger Sleepers
Ismael Munguia, OF
Ghordy Santos, INF
Andrew Caraballo, INF

Izzy Munguia is a tiny corner outfield prospect with great feel to hit. His power is limited. He’ll likely need to be a 7 bat to profile. Santos and Caraballo are each built like Jorge Polanco. Santos has plus bat speed and some low-ball ability. Caraballo has plus infield hands and actions and Eric thought he saw him breaking in a catcher’s mitt on the backfields.

System Overview

This rebuild could take a while. There’s probably a dominant, homegrown bullpen in this system but most of the pitchers who’ll be part of it are already in their mid or late-20s. There’s a huge timeline gap between that group and the more exciting, potentially impactful group of teenagers (mostly bats) who are, by and large, currently in rookie and A-ball. Parlaying current big leaguers and upper-level prospects into long-term assets will be an important part of accelerating a return to competitiveness. That means nailing a seemingly imminent Madison Bumgarner trade. Scouts from opposing clubs are already deviating from their normal coverage to get extra looks at the left-hander so their teams have as much info as possible as we approach June and July.

Now that the org is under new leadership, the way talent is acquired and developed will change, but we’re not yet sure exactly how. It seems as if early priorities involve throwing fringe roster guys like Connor Joe, Aaron Altherr, and Breyvic Valera at the wall to see who sticks. Expect the Giants to try to find diamonds in the rough on the waiver wire who they’ll likely look to flip for long-term help rather than keep around.

We’ve seen Giants personnel at amateur games with the same model camera we’re using to take high-speed video, so they’re proactively entering that space. It’s likely their new Ops leader, Farhan Zaidi, will bring Dodger player dev concepts with him to San Francisco because the Dodgers have been so good at improving their players, but some of LA’s more prominent scouting tendencies (injured arms, toolsy college hitters with contact red flags, talent from Mexico) will be harder to replicate effectively because the Dodgers still exist in those spaces, too.


Called Up: Austin Riley

Yesterday, the Braves called up Austin Riley, who we ranked second in their system and 33rd in our Top 100. He continued his blazing hot 2019, going 1-for-3 in his big league debut last night, including a home run that was hit 109 mph off the bat. He put up insane numbers at Triple-A in 37 games this year, hitting 15 homers and posting a 160 wRC+ with an unlucky .286 BABIP given his quality of contact.

I’ve been in to see him a few times this spring and captured a homer (102.1 mph off the bat, 32 degrees, 405.3 feet, a homer to straight-away center field) and an off-balance but well-struck double to the pull gap in glorious 1000 frames per second below. You can reference these swings (particularly the first) as an example of the actualized version of Riley’s swing from the mechanical journey I describe below.

Riley got on most clubs’ radar as a standout on arguably the best prep team in Mississippi. He was all over the showcase circuit but was a little thicker then and was arguably a better pitching prospect. He showed some starter traits, running his heater up to 95 mph at times, but having mostly average stuff with limited physical projection. In the spring, he started shaping up his frame, which has continued through his pro career as well. He looked like he had a shot to stick at third base and was getting more athletic, to the point where he was getting to his plus power in games more often. Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/15/19

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, running around a lot today after a five-day trip through the Carolinas and I’m flying to Chicago tomorrow to see Quinn Priester, so there’s lots of maintenance things to get done today

1:10

Paul: WHEN IS THE NEXT MOCK

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: Oh yes and in case you missed it, there was a new mock yesterday and we already have a solid half dozen more pieces of dope to go in the next one…which will be whenever we think is time for a new one

1:11

mark: What is the domino effect if Vaughn goes 1 to BAL?

1:14

Kiley McDaniel: Not completely sure, but my best guess would be:
1. BAL – Vaughn
2. KC – Rutschman
3. CHW – Abrams
4. MIA – Witt
5. DET – Greene
6. SD – Bleday

Read the rest of this entry »