Archive for Prospects

Teams were understandably late to identify Howard as an upper-crust draft prospect. He redshirted, then only threw 36 innings the following spring and began his draft year in the bullpen, a relative unknown. He moved to the rotation in March and crosscheckers started showing up to see him much later than is typical for a first look at a second round talent. In 2018, his first full season as a member of the rotation, Howard thrived and late in the year his stuff took off. He was sitting 94-98 and working with three nasty secondary pitches. That carried over to his first four starts of 2019 but was interrupted by shoulder soreness that benched him for two months. After he returned, the Phillies moved him pretty quickly to Double-A for six starts, then had him finish in the Fall League. His stuff was great in Arizona. He touched 99, sat mostly 93-97, his curveball and changeup were both plus, and his slider’s two-plane tilt gives Howard a second viable breaker, capable of garnering whiffs when it’s located away from righties. He barely pitched at Double-A last year and is likely to start 2020 there, but if he’s good for a month, especially in hitter-friendly Reading, then a promotion to Lehigh Valley makes sense. If at any point the competitive Phillies think he’s one of their five best arms, he needs to be in the big leagues.

Most of the industry expected Bohm’s swing to be altered at least a little bit after he was selected third overall in 2018, but I can’t imagine anyone expected this. Bohm’s swing now more closely resembles Michael Brantley’s, not some strikeout-heavy slugger’s uppercut hack. His hands start high and stay tucked before he simply guides them down to wherever the ball is. If anything, this swing is less noisy than his college iteration, and somehow a 6-foot-5, long-levered guy with big power managed to have just a 14% strikeout rate at Double-A last year. Bohm has enough raw power to hit balls hard even with a low-effort cut, and he’s been able to hit balls all over the zone because of how direct his swing is. Can he play third base? I came away from my extended Fall League look more optimistic than almost every scout I talked to. I have him projected as a 40 defender there in part because Philly is likely very motivated to leave him at third as long as Rhys Hoskins is around.

Teams fell into one of three groups when evaluating Stott before the draft. There were the teams that thought that, despite his size and atypical throwing stroke, he’d stay at shortstop and hit for some power because his swing has natural lift. Those teams were highest on him. Then there were teams that thought he’d just do one of those things. Stott is a waist-bender, and his lower half is tight. I think he’ll be okay at short but acknowledge that all else equal, I’d be more comfortable with a traditionally graceful shortstop.

Stott’s swing is geared for low-ball contact. It’s pretty, and Stott can hit pitches near his shoe-tops to all fields with power, but he needs to prove he can hit velocity at the top of the strike zone, which he’ll face a lot. The swing’s length and bat path create doubt. This profile is rare: it’s a lefty-hitting shortstop with power, but one riskier than is typical for a college bat who has two years of strong numbers.

Clearly in over his head in Lakewood, Garcia struggled badly and hit .186 while splitting time at second and short. When 18-year-olds get sent to full-season ball, they either hit their way onto top 100 lists or require age-related grace for their org’s aggressive misstep. This is still a switch-hitting teenage middle infielder with promising gap-to-gap pop. The big-ceiling helium is perhaps out of the balloon, but this skillset still goes somewhere in the first 50 or so picks of a draft.

Morales remains on the starter/reliever fringe, and I think the latter is more likely. He has a traditional power pitcher’s fastball/slider combination, while the upper-80s changeup remains firm and unrefined, as does his control. Morales is a good athlete — he’s sinewy and strong — while his delivery is violent and difficult to repeat. One of those will usurp the other and dictate what happens to Morales’ role. I think he’ll be a ninth inning bully.

This is the most talented set of hitting hands in this system. Some of Muzziotti’s cuts have an immaculate, electric beauty; others gasp to make contact with a pitch he should not have swung at. He can rip his hands through and get the barrel on pitches inside, and he can spoil tough pitches on the edge of the zone. There’s rare bat-to-ball feel here, which enables a swing-happy approach that could use refining. Muzziotti’s exit velo data is not great, he lacks much frame-based projection, and he’s been hurt a bit. But he has a special knack for finding the barrel and it’s what I care most about.

Yes, Moniak’s 2019 statline was slightly inflated by Reading’s run environment, but he has gotten stronger and still has the bat-to-ball skills that drove his amateur profile. His pre-draft skill overview was as follows: contact-first bat, with a chance to be elite in that regard, instincts-driven center field, and a relatively narrow band of framed-based raw power projection. Moniak has filled out and the raw power looks like it’s going to settle close to average, based on sourced exit velos and my Fall League looks (which weren’t good until the last week or two). Org opinions differ as to whether or not a better approach can be taught. A more selective Moniak might walk and slug a little more, and swing at pitches he can hit, but not in a way that does damage. I have him in as a low-end regular, a .310 OBP, .420 SLG sort of center fielder.

He’s rough around the edges but Rojas is a scintillating talent with the best power/speed combination in the system. The speed plays in the field, where Rojas can turn gap doubles into web gems. Right now Rojas is content to smash balls into play with crude swings, then run like hell. He may be a good enough defender in center to just end up with a low OBP, bigger SLG output that still profiles, but the big ceiling comes when Rojas refines his swing and approach.

The right tail outcome for Medina’s profile is someone like Julio Teheran. Like Teheran, Medina is an athletic sinker/changeup righty, but he arguably has a better breaking ball than Teheran does. Before touching the vertical movement monolith and leaping into the new frontier of fastball understanding, I had boundless enthusiasm for Medina. It eventually became clear his fastball just wasn’t going to play like a mid-90s heater. The secondaries — a sweeping breaking ball in the 77-82 mph range and that changeup — and command projection were still strong, though. Last year, Medina’s walk and strikeout rates backed up on him. He has to have pretty fine command for everything to gel into a No. 4/5 starter; if that aspect of the skillset bounces back, he’ll move into that appropriate 45 FV tier.

Marchan still doesn’t have a homer in four pro seasons but he has premium feel for contact and is an athletic catch-and-throw guy who should stay behind the plate. He still struggles to squeeze good breaking balls and with ball-blocking, but neither is so bad that Marchan is sure to move elsewhere, though he has played some first base. Moonlighting at first may grant Marchan a weekly reprieve from the rigors of catching but he has to squat full-time to profile as an everyday player without power. The contact skill is special but needs another piece of the profile to develop.

The 2018 version of Llovera flashed a plus split, a plus breaking ball, and sat in the mid-90s. He seemed like a potential candidate for the Seranthony Domínguez treatment in 2019 — a quick move to the bullpen with high-leverage innings a distinct possibility based on stuff quality, especially if the heater got a bump because he could cut it loose in short bursts. Then Llovera pitched with diminished stuff and was shut down with an elbow issue in mid-July shortly after a bullpen trial. I’m staying on him as a nasty, multi-inning relief option, though it will require a bounce back in stuff.

Simmons was a toolsy, volatile high school prospect who had strikeout issues against varsity high school pitching. His stride and the way his hands load have both changed since he’s entered pro ball, which seems to have improved his timing and general in-the-box comfort. There are still some bat-to-ball issues, but Simmons’ raw power/bat speed and rapid improvements are exciting. He could be a multi-positional player with power, the sort Ryan McMahon has been to this point, but with a role that includes some shortstop.

Baylor’s ability to rotate with ferocity took a leap sometime between PG National and his senior spring. Teams were not in agreement about where he fit defensively, and some bailed on him entirely early in the process because he didn’t look great with the bat during his pre-draft summer, perhaps due to a lingering arm injury. He went bonkers as a senior, not just clubbing bad pitching but looking more explosive to the eye. He has a shot to stay up the middle, most likely second base, and hit enough to profile there.

This is a very interesting defensive and statistical profile. Maton is a lefty bat who can play both middle infield spots (and began playing some third base in 2019), he walks (10% career rate), and he hits the ball in the air a ton (33% career groundball rate). He’s also performed at every stop and checks a lot of visual, athletic boxes. The raw power, though, is lacking. Because Maton already hits the ball in the air a lot (he averaged 18 degrees on launch), there’s not a lot of room for cream at the top of his offensive profile that doesn’t involve him adding either strength or overhauling his swing in a way that unlocks power. At age 23, the former is unlikely, but with a fairly new dev staff in place on the hitting side, perhaps the latter is.

Realistically, he’s a good utility guy, but perhaps the feel for lift and the Triple-A/major league baseball gives him a shot to break out.

It’s safe to say that the temporary velo bump Jojo displayed a few years ago was just that, and that he’s going to have lean heavily on his secondary stuff to pitch his way through the lineup a couple of times. He’s athletic and fields his position well (handy, as he has a 50% groundball rate), his changeup is a viable out pitch, and he can mix breaking ball shapes (cut, depth, sweep). I like him in a fairly valuable bulk relief role, maybe someone who’d be an interesting piggyback partner for Vince Velasquez or some other inefficient power arm.

Scouts saw different versions of Miller at different times. He was into the mid-90s on the Cape but sat in the low-90s the following spring, reaching back for more when he wanted but appearing to dial things down to throw strikes most of the time. The quality of his secondary stuff and his intelligent deployment of those offerings should enable Miller to pitch at the back of a rotation, but he’s got a puncher’s chance to be more if he lives in the high-end of the velo band we’ve seen in the past.

Ortiz finished second in the Florida State League in homers but still managed to finish the year with an overall batting line below the league’s average. He’s more svelte than he was as an amateur, and while he’s still big-bodied, he’s stronger than he is soft. He even got a little bit of run in center field last year, but at age 21, Ortiz is built like José Abreu is right now and is probably destined for right field or first base. I once thought a DH/1B future was a lock, but Ortiz has stayed fairly mobile and at this point, we have no idea what kind of infield hands he has. The power gives him a real shot to be a regular, and while the peripherals make him very scary, Ortiz gets some grace for being 20 in the Florida State League.

Castillo’s fastball was touching 97 when he was 15 years old, and he received one of the highest bonuses of the 2018 July 2 class. He didn’t get into games until July, when he was 93-95 with a plus slider in 20-pitch outings. There’s no room on the frame (Castillo body comps to Frankie Montas) but there’s already plenty of velo, so that’s okay. Castillo needs command and a third pitch, both of which are likelier to come with reps he didn’t get last year.

Duran is an athletic, workmanlike catcher with plus raw arm strength. He receives well, is mobile, and will show you pop times in the low 1.9s. His power output is limited by an epicurean approach, but a very compact swing enables enough contact to support a backup catching profile.

Jones found a better slider in 2019 and went from a lefty with average stuff to one with an out pitch. His fastball command is crude, and he especially struggles to work fastballs to his glove side right now. When he can get it in there, though, the angle is tough on righties and helps set up backfoot sliders, which Jones locates pretty consistently. He has fastball-heavy starter stuff and repertoire depth, but below-average command will probably limit him to inefficient, five-ish inning outings, or perhaps move him to the bullpen. If his velo ticks up in relief, it could be a dominant pitch, as it already plays up due to extension and angle.

Irvin sat 87-91 as a starter and then climbed into the 90-94 range out of the bullpen late last summer. He’s a strike-throwing lefty with a good curveball and changeup, with the latter more often used to finish hitters while the curveball is a great get-ahead first pitch. He’s a high-probability member of the staff as an up-and-down swingman during his option years.

Lindow throws a ton of strikes with a bevy of average pitches, though his curveball typically has good shape, the kind that’s especially tough on lefties. He’s now barely the age of a college junior and has already had statistical success up through Hi-A. Lindow’s pitching approach is relatively fly ball-heavy, so Reading and the Triple-A baseball may expose some issues, but for now he projects as a backend starter.

Much of the velocity the industry saw glimpses of at times during Pipkin’s amateur career — and dreamt it would see again once he filled out — has arrived. After he topped out at 94 in 2018, Pipkin was up to 98 last year. His secondaries are still not very good (I think the changeup has the best chance to be an impact pitch) but one more brick is in place than was there a year ago and I still think Pipkin has a better chance to start than the older arms ranked behind him who admittedly have a greater chance of pitching in the majors at all.

A junior college reliever, Mayer is a very interesting arm strength/physical projection developmental prospect. He was still just 18 on Draft Day in 2019 and is already throwing 90-95, and his gangly 6-foot-6 frame portends more velo. He has some nascent breaking ball feel but is understandably behind from a development standpoint due to his college role, and he has barely ever thrown a changeup. He’s a long-term project but has ingredients with which to work.

In the year leading up to Sanchez’s 40-man equilibrium trade from Tampa to Philly, his velo climbed from 88-93 to the 92-95 range, topping out at 98, and that was in multi-inning relief stints and starts lasting as long as five innings. His changeup progressed, and he’s now the hardest-throwing lefty on the Phillies 40-man and may compete for a spot in the bullpen during the spring.

Garcia’s fastball has elite vertical movement. His fastball spins at 2700 rpm on average, which is incredible on its own but especially amazing at his velocity. He has a deceptive overhand delivery, his changeup and curveball dovetail nicely, and he throws strikes. I think he could be a Yusmeiro Petit-style reliever.

O’Hoppe is a well-built, athletic catcher who kept his head above water in the college-heavy New York-Penn League last year at age 19 (a 100 wRC+, mostly derived from a .407 SLG%). He’s adjusted to pro pitching fairly well for a cold weather prep prospect without elite showcase experience. He has the defensive shortcomings you’d expect someone this young and relatively inexperienced to have when handling good stuff, and his feel to hit is undercooked, but the power-on-contact last year was very strong for a teenager. He’s got a shot to be something, though the delta between the ceiling and floor is quite large.

A plus changeup, a re-worked slider, and mid-90s velo spearhead an option years trial relief profile for Dohy, whose excellent stuff is undercut by his poor control. This sort of stuff is still somewhat new for the lefty, who experienced a velo bump upon his move to the bullpen and has had his breaking ball overhauled. Plus he’s only 22, so he sits atop a group in this system with similar futures.

Warren creates really tough angle on his stuff by way of his high arm slot. His slider has blunt movement but enough depth to offset the fact that it doesn’t bite that hard. He can also create visually-pleasing arm-side action on the changeup and will clearly have the mix to stand up to three-batter minimums if his ability to locate that pitch improve.

Schultz is the hardest throwing pitcher in this entire system, sitting 96-99 in his post-draft outings after he touched 101 at Tennessee. He walked a batter per inning in college and has a very long, tough-to-repeat arm action that affects his control and slider quality. He has late-inning arm strength but needs to find mechanical consistency to be anything at all.

Nicoly Pina’s breaking ball is still clearly a work in progress — I’d call his mid-80s breaker a cutter right now, but it seems subject to change — but physically, he has a huge arm and creates nearly pure backspin on his heater. I won’t go too crazy projecting on the fastball because he is already quite strong-bodied and pitching in relief (and with an unusual amount of rest between outings), but it could be a dominant pitch because of its vertical movement/velo combo.

Lee Sang is an athletic, two-way prospect who didn’t have much amateur experience against elite pitching. As a result, he’s likely to need some early-career barbecuing on the complex. But he has a sweet lefty stroke, he runs well enough to give center field a try, and he has a plus arm.

Young’s size makes him an uncomfortable at-bat, especially for left-handed hitters, and he has the tools to deal with righties when he’s locating, as he often is. In essence, this is a No. 6 starter pitchability lefty with extreme size who might make him more difficult to deal with. He had Tommy John last May and likely won’t be back until late in 2020. He’s a strong Fall League candidate.

He’ll still bump 96 once in a while, but De Los Santos’ fastball has sinker shape that demands a better changeup with which to pair. The velo used to overpower hitters, but no longer. I’m curious how it might play in the bullpen but otherwise now consider De Los Santos a likely sixth starter type.

A pitchability teenager with a good changeup, Santos slings in average stuff, some of which plays up because of his funky, long arm action. His realistic ceiling is that of a fifth or sixth starter.

De La Cruz has a power forward’s build at 6-foot-8 and is an extreme power projection long shot. He runs well enough underway that there’s a faction of scouts who think he might stay in center field, which would take some pressure off the swing-and-miss profile. The selectivity is the thing that really needs to improve here.

Lin is a giant 20-year-old with huge, broad shoulders and a softer build. He has “reverse projection,” meaning he’s young enough to reshape an otherwise unprojectable build and add velocity through improved conditioning. Philly has targeted heavier-bodied pitchers in international free agency (Castillo, Morales, Santos) and Lin is another. His delivery is fairly loose and fluid, especially for his size. The secondary stuff is raw, but Lin had a strong statistical 2019 in a three-ish inning piggyback role with Williamsport.

Wingrove repeated the GCL in 2019 and hit .298/.374/.500. He’s a huge lefty power bat who obviously needs to hit a ton to profile since he’s a heavy-footed, 1B/DH prospect. His Aussie background gives him a pass for that first summer and makes the level repeat less of a red flag, but he still has little margin for error.

I officially have one foot in, one foot out on Silva. His frame, his mechanical grace and fluidity, and his feel for locating average secondary stuff are still positives, but the clock is ticking on the body and fastball projection. The command and secondary quality aren’t good enough to support the profile without more heat.

Rutschman is the total package, a physical monster who also has superlative baseball acumen and leadership qualities. From his sophomore season onward (and arguably starting in the fall before that) Rutschman went wire-to-wire as the top draft prospect in his class, a complete player and the best draft prospect in half a decade. His entire profile is ideal. It’s rare for ambidextrous swingers to have polished swings from both sides of the plate, even moreso to have two nearly identical, rhythmic swings that produce power.

It’s more atypical still for that type of hitter to be a great defender at a premium position. Rutschman has a pickpocket’s sleight of hand and absolutely cons umpires into calling strikes on the edge of the zone. Resolute umpires end up hearing it from biased fans who are easier marks. Aside from two instances, all of my Rustchman pop times over three years of looks are between 1.86 and 1.95 seconds, comfortably plus timed throws often right on the bag. Rutschman has the physical tools to become the best catcher in baseball, provided he stays healthy (he had some shoulder/back stuff in college). He’s also an ultra-competitive, attentive, and vocal team leader who shepherds pitchers with measured, but intense encouragement. It fires up his teammates and feels like it comes from a real place, not something he’s forcing. Aside from the questions that arose as teams scrutinized Rutschman’s medicals with a magnifying class before the draft (described to me as “stuff consistent with catching and playing football”) he’s a perfect prospect subject only to the risk and attrition that all catchers are.

Rodriguez is a Forrest Whitley sequel currently in production. Like Whitley, Rodriguez was once a hefty Texas high schooler with average stuff. A physical transformation coincided with a senior spring breakthrough, which was then bettered by cogent repertoire work in pro ball. Rodriguez’s changeup, which was an afterthought back in high school, has screwball action and has become very good, very quickly. He’s now tracking to have a four-pitch mix full of above-average pitches: a mid-90s fastball, a lateral, mid-80s slider, a two-plane upper-70s curveball, and the low-80s change. His delivery isn’t great (there’s a little bit of head whack, and Rodriguez has a tightly-wound lower half) but he’s never been injured and has thrown an acceptable rate of strikes to this point. Among the highly-drafted 2018 prep arms, only Rodriguez and Simeon Woods-Richardson are trending above their pre-draft grades. Rodriguez has a No. 2/3 starter ceiling.

Ultra-competitive, athletic southpaws with this kind of stuff are very rare. Here’s the list of lefty big league starters who throw harder than Hall, who averaged 94.9 mph on his fastball in 2019: Blake Snell. That’s it.

Because Hall’s release is inconsistent, not only did his walk rate regress in 2019, but the quality of his secondary stuff was also less consistent than it was during his very dominant mid-summer stretch in 2018, when Hall’s changeup clearly took a leap. Both of his secondaries are often plus; Hall simply has a higher misfire rate than most big league starters. He’s still just 21 and has All-Star upside if he starts locating better, which may not come until after he has a couple big league seasons under his belt.

Beware the swing-happy hitter with no position. Mountcastle’s long-awaited slide down the defensive spectrum accelerated last year. He was a woebegone, full-time shortstop until 2018 when he began playing third base, then last year he spent an overwhelming majority of his time at first base, while playing a bit at third and closing the year with a month in left field. The eerie shadow of the LF/DH projection (he’s had issues throwing to first base) has loomed around Mountcastle’s profile for a while now, but he keeps hitting enough for me to like him anyway.

Mountcastle’s timing is sublime, and he has one of the more picturesque righty swings in all of pro baseball, featuring a big, slow leg kick that eventually ignites his deft, explosive hands. He has great plate coverage and hits with power to all fields. Mountcastle swings a lot: He has a 4.5% career walk rate, and it’s rare for DH/LF sorts to walk that little and be star-level performers. DH types with OBPs in the .310-.320 range typically max out in the 2-3 WAR range, which is where I expect Mountcastle to peak. But his contact quality is quite good, and the visual evaluation of the hit tool and on-paper performance have been strong for several years, so the degree of confidence that Mountcastle will hit is relatively high for a prospect with plate discipline issues.

Henderson played shortstop in high school and he can make fundamentally routine plays there, but at his age and size he’s much more likely to transition to third base while he’s still in the minors. He’s actually taller than just about every big league third baseman aside from the Brian Anderson, Hunter Dozier types who play other positions. He’s a lefty stick with precocious power and a relatively projectable frame in spite of somewhat narrow shoulders. He squared up elite high school pitching all throughout his showcase summer, giving the industry confidence in the hit tool. It’s reasonable to hope for his bat to profile in an everyday capacity at third base, especially if the currently historic crop of hot corner talent has started to age by the time he’s ready.

Two more IL stints in 2019 means Diaz has now been shelved with an ailment six times since 2016. He had issues with his shoulder, hip, hand, quad, and hamstring during that time, and developed a tightly-wound lower half. He still hunts hittable pitches and can move the barrel around the zone, but this is an approach/contact-based skillset rather than one with loud, first division tools. The ball/strike diagnosis and barrel control are both enough for Diaz to play everyday, but he doesn’t thump like a star corner outfielder and the injury track record is a reason to round down a bit.

Every now and then, toolsy college prospects turn into George Springer. Their swing and approach are refined with pro instruction, and previously dormant production suddenly shows up in games. It seemed like Hays was quickly becoming this sort of player during his 2017 breakout, a power/speed monster who had one of the best statistical line in the minors that year. But an aggressive, pull-heavy approach and ankle injury derailed Hays’ 2018, which was so putrid that he never got a big league look even though he’d already debuted the previous September.

His 2019 season was much better, though it too was interrupted by injury, this time a hamstring strain. Hays’ swing makes him a 40 runner from home to first, but underway he’s a plus runner capable of handling center field. His leaping ability should also make him a threat to rob the occasional homer. Most importantly, Hays’ ability to play center field (which I’ve not always been optimistic about but have come around on) gives the approach issues some room to breathe on the offensive end. I still don’t consider him a lock to generate everyday value because of the plate discipline, but he’s talented enough to be a high-variance player who has some big years.

McKenna can fly and he has all-fields, doubles power, peppering the right-center gap with inside-out swings. Some of the power production is speed-driven, but McKenna has enough strength to deal with big league velo. His walk rates may come down as pitchers attack him in parts of the zone where they don’t think he can hurt them, but he has a shot to be a league average hitter who also plays a good center field. That’s an everyday player, just probably one without the pop to be a 50 or better on the scale.

In a year, Baumann transformed from what many clubs considered a two-pitch relief prospect to a nearly ready, four-pitch rotation piece. His upper-80s slider is terse and cuttery, the type of pitch that induces weak contact rather than whiffs, and when mixed with a more shapely curveball, keeps hitters sufficiently perplexed. The mealticket offering, though, is Baumann’s fastball, which has huge carry. That pillar pitch complimented by lots of viable other elements should enable Baumann to work as a No. 4/5 starter.

Stowers swings so hard that he looks like he’s going to corkscrew himself into the ground. The Bellingerian cut makes Stowers’ whiffs seem worse than they are, and also make his dingers aesthetically pleasing. Kiley and I liked him as a sandwich/early second round prospect and Stowers ended up falling all the way to the top of round three. That prompted a reevaluation but, ultimately, there’s rare ability to rotate here and a chance for big, in-game power production, enough to profile in right field.

If Kremer is going to continue missing bats at the rate he has thus far, especially with a fastball a few ticks down from his reliever days in the Dodgers system, then his command will need to get where I have it projected. That’s very possible for a guy who threw 60% of his fastballs in the strike zone last year. Kremer’s repertoire is well-composed but relies on location to generate whiffs because his raw stuff isn’t nasty enough to miss when he makes mistakes. He doesn’t make many of them though, and his fastball still played against good Fall League hitters even when he sat 90-92 there. If that isn’t sustainable more than twice through an order, perhaps Kremer will move to some kind of valuable long relief role eventually. For now, he’s much more likely to begin his big league career in Baltimore’s rotation.

He doesn’t throw very hard, but it takes hitters a few looks to get comfortable with Lowther, whose mechanical funk disrupts their timing. The sinking and tailing action on Lowther’s heater makes it tough to square up, and the southpaw leans on his secondary stuff to finish hitters. His curveball has depth and it bites hard, but doesn’t pair very well with the sinker and is best deployed as a means to get ahead of hitters early in the count. The changeup, which Lowther uses against both-handed hitters, has become his out pitch. It’s a Ryan Yarbrough sort of mix, and Lowther’s future role should be similar.

Hall’s speed has put several atmospheres of pressure on low-level minor league defenses. He puts lots of balls in play on the ground and hauls ass to first, to this point running a nearly .400 BABIP as a pro. Hall does have advanced feel for contact for a 20-year-old with an odd developmental path (he left Bermuda as an adolescent to pursue baseball in Canada) and several catalytic qualities that fit in a traditional, perhaps regressive, top-of-the-lineup role. He’s stolen 56 bases in 70 career attempts (80% success) and is fast enough for that skill to keep playing as he climbs the latter, though his offensive production will likely come down. Hall is not lacking big league physicality, but he isn’t very projectable either, and what you see now is probably what you’ll get. His exit velos are close to big league average, and he did lift the ball more in 2019, but power is unlikely to impact the profile. He’s tracking like an Everth Cabrera sort of player.

Akin’s stuff was down a little bit in 2019, as he was 92-95 and bumping 98 in 2018. He’s walked a batter every other inning for basically his entire career, but Akin has a three-pitch mix sufficient for starting and missing bats. He projects as an inefficient No. 4/5 starter who taxes the bullpen, or a four- or five-out reliever.

Grenier is a good defensive shortstop with some raw pop and elevated peripherals. His overt physical tools — the power, straight-line speed, arm, defensive ability — have been well-reviewed since Grenier was in high school and they forced to move Nick Madrigal from shortstop to second base during the last year and a half of Grenier’s time with Oregon State. He was a swing-change candidate for pro ball and his hands do load a little differently now, coming toward his rising front knee before circling back around in a loop toward the ball. This is reminiscent of lots of Donaldsonesque swings implemented in the minors right now. If something clicks, Grenier could be an everyday shortstop. For now, the strikeouts push him toward a lesser, middle infield utility role.

We might have seen Pop in the big leagues last year had he not blown out and needed TJ in mid-May. Now, the Orioles are just months from needing to decide whether to put him on the 40-man roster. Healthy Pop looked much like Brandon League, a turbo sinker/slider, high-leverage sidearm reliever. Baltimore will have a better idea of how Pop’s stuff is progressing during rehab than the rest of the industry does, and other teams may only have a short window to evaluate Pop in games ahead of Rule 5 consideration, should Baltimore not add him and hope the lack of looks keeps teams away. He’s a high profile rehab target for clubs with scouts on the backfields.

He isn’t especially graceful nor does he have great hands or actions, but Bannon plays an adequate, effort-based second and third base. More importantly, he can hit. His low load enables him to lift pitches with regularity, but he’s also short back to the ball and tough to beat with velocity. This becomes especially true with two strikes, when Bannon chokes up and spoils tough pitches. He runs deep counts and walks a bunch, he’s going to hit a ton of doubles and play a shift-aided spot on the infield. That’s a big league role player.

An athletic lefty with a four-pitch mix, Zimmerman is a fully baked, pitchability backend starter with a good slider.

After a post-draft velocity dip, Rom’s heater returned to the upper-80s last year and it missed a lot full-season bats, many more than fastballs like his typically do. It has a well above-average spin rate for its velocity and nearly perfect backspin. An equally important part of Rom’s success to this point — 150 strikeouts, 39 walks in 126 innings — has been his breaking ball command. He can vary shape and locate to his glove side, and Rom has a crude splitter with late dive that has a shot to miss bats. If he can add velo he’s going to really blow up, and he’s only 20. Velo gains are rare though, and Rom has a mesomorphic build, not the sort that has a ton of room for mass. If he settles at this velo he’ll be a backend starter.

This will be Harvey’s eighth year in pro baseball. He’s battled through an awful lot of injuries to become a fastball-heavy reliever.

A GM once told me (I’m paraphrasing) that if a player is well-built and has some baseball acumen, they deserve serious consideration even if their tools are very average. Such is the case with Hernaiz, who has a bunch of average tools right now, but could grow into a carrying, impact trait. He has pro ball pedigree (his father played throughout the ’90s), and the ability to drop the bat head and lift pitches toward the bottom of the zone. He can rotate and create leverage, and might just stay at shortstop. This was a strong $400k signing; Hernaiz is one of the more interesting young players in this system.

Bradish’s stuff is straight out of middle relief central casting. He sits 90-93 as a starter and has an overhand power curveball. The picturesque way Bradish rotates and unfurls belies his lackluster control, though his changeup has improved in pro ball. I think he’s unlikely to start and is instead a high-probability relief piece.

This is the player in the system about whom the scouts and data most disagree. Scouts see an unathletic infielder, arguably positionless, without the power to make up for his defensive issues. But on paper, Urias has a .270/.360/.420 career line in the minors — after two DSL seasons with Texas, Urias’ rights were loaned and then sold outright to Diablos Rojos in Mexico City, where he hit .318/.402/.467 over five seasons before the Cardinals came calling in the spring of 2018 — and he’s hit well for two consecutive years at Double and Triple-A. His TrackMan data is strong (91 mph average exit velo, 47% of balls in play at 95 mph or more), and he plays an up-the-middle position. He’s an interesting sleeper, though we acknowledge there’s no margin for error here. Urias can only really play second base passably as he lacks the arm strength for the left side. He’ll either hit enough to be an everyday second baseman, or he won’t and will be very difficult to roster.

How good does one’s secondary stuff and command need to be to succeed in today’s game with an upper-80s fastball? We may be about to find out. Baltimore’s rebuild should give Wells an opportunity to perform six innings worth of surgery every fifth day.

With geyser-like regularity, LSU churns out high-effort, tweener fourth outfield prospects like Watson, who hit .311/.373/.484 while in college.

Ortiz’s junior year production at New Mexico State was undoubtedly aided by the hitting environment there, but he also has relevant talent. He’s tough to strike out and plays a good shortstop, though he lacks typical big league strength and explosion. Realistically, he looks like a bench infielder.

Handley is an agile catcher with control of the strike zone. His quickness enables the arm to play behind the plate even though Handley’s short on pure zip. Without an impact offensive tool, he likely maxes out as a backup.

Diplan was electric early in his pro career and looked like a top 100 talent back in 2016, when he mowed over the Midwest League. Since then his conditioning has been mixed, and his control increasingly problematic. He’s been shuttled around the DFA wire lately and has now landed with an org that, theoretically, should be good at developing pitching. He once had three potential plus pitches, so we’re still on Diplan to some degree in the hope that he can recapture the stuff of his teenage years in Baltimore’s bullpen.

Carroll seemed like a sure bet to spend most of 2019 in the big leagues, but a slipped disc that was pinching a nerve in his left leg shelved him all summer. He made two, single-inning August rehab appearances in the GCL (a hurricane wreaked havoc on the last couple weeks of games in Florida) and then went to the Fall League, where he threw an inning every three or four days. He sat 94-97 with inconsistent slider quality and control.

Knight was parked at 89-93 as a starter in 2019. He has a better chance of missing bats in relief, where he could theoretically bully hitters with a little more velo and live off his slider a bit more.

Since moving to the bullpen in July of 2018, Mattson has struck out more than a batter per inning in what are almost always multi-inning appearances. After a dominant month at Hi-A to begin 2019, the Angels moved Mattson to Double-A and started varying his workload, first asking him to throw on back-to-back nights at the end of July. He’s being groomed for a relief role, one that will likely be fastball-heavy. His heater has big time life at the top of the zone and Mattson really hides the ball well, so he’s able to slip it past hitters at the letters. His secondary stuff is average on pure stuff but plays well off his fastball. He profiles as a middle reliever.

Sparks has only been healthy enough to play about 70 games in parts of three pro seasons, but he has major league ingredients. His frame, twitch, speed, arm strength and, shockingly, exit velos, are all of big league quality; we just know very little about the hit tool and power actualization because of his lack of reps. This is a two-year evaluation window for Baltimore because Sparks has to go on the 40-man two Decembers from now. Come June, he will have spent three years on the complex, and the track record for players who have done that is very poor. If the Orioles like him, they have to hit the gas on his development at some point, whether that’s a cup of coffee at Low-A late this year or a quick hook to Hi-A in 2021.

Baltimore had originally planned on taking Hanifee, who grew up an Orioles fan, in the third round of the 2016 draft but instead took Austin Hays, who they expected to be off the board by that point. Hanifee was still available the next time Baltimore was on the clock and he signed for $500,000. Our year-to-year notes on Hanifee have his velo down two ticks in 2019 (91-93 t95 in 2018, 89-92 t93 in 2019), and his control regressed, too. His appeal for the past two years had been his present arm strength and a lean, broad-shouldered, 6-foot-5 frame that foreshadowed more. That hasn’t happened, even as Hanifee’s gotten stronger-looking.

His delivery is odd. After his hands break, Hanifee holds the ball out and up above his head like a waiter carrying a tray, then his stride and arm stroke are both very short. It’s deceptive and strange. He’s a bounceback candidate, and a reasonable outcome to hope for is a fastball-heavy reliever.

The Braves originally drafted Cumberland with a pick they bought from Baltimore in exchange for Brian Matusz’s contract, then later shipped him to Baltimore as part of the package for Kevin Gausmann and Darren O’Day. Cumberland was a bat-first catching prospect at Cal and he remains so today. He’s still very rough defensively but has done nothing but catch to this point in his career. Both the receiving and arm strength are issues, so I’ve got Cumberland evaluated as a DH. Robo zone implementation might change that.

Peralta has been simmering in A-ball for a while now, continuing to start (mostly) despite control issues that will certainly push him to the bullpen. The starter reps have been helpful in developing Peralta’s secondaries though, which are now both close to average. One of them still needs to step forward for him to seize a steady relief role.

Daschbach is a R/R 1B/OF power bat with strength-driven thump. He smoked Pac-12 pitching as a sophomore and junior, but has a high offensive bar to clear.

Acquired as part of the college pitching hydra sent to Baltimore in the Dylan Bundy deal, Peek will bump 95 with ride at the top of the zone. His changeup progressed during his draft year but otherwise his stuff was better on the Cape the summer before, and his curveball is fine. He’s a swingman/depth starter type.

Last year we suggested that Zebron might repeat the GCL because he was a raw, two-sport high schooler and indeed that’s what happened. Baltimore was one of only a few teams that were on Zebron, who was pitching on Maryland’s Eastern Shore, before the 2018 draft. A year after becoming an intriguing summer sleeper, his fastball remains in the low-90s, up to 94, paired with a deep, two-plane curveball.

Bautista is way behind the developmental curve — he was originally signed by the Marlins in 2012 and released in 2015 — but he has a huge frame and he sure does throw hard. He’s of the Tayron Guerrero ilk.

If you get déjà vu reading this report it’s because Manning has become the dream. All of the physical components that many front-end arms have while they’re in high school were there when he was an amateur — shooting guard frame, premium arm strength and athleticism, a breaking ball — the stuff that enables your imagination to run wild. And Manning succeeded while devoting time to two sports, which caused him to get a late start during his draft spring because the hoops team was in the middle of a deep playoff run (Manning threw late into the prior summer, so this may have actually been good for limiting innings).

After some initial strike-throwing issues and a change in stride direction, the REM cycle arrived. The walks came down, Manning’s changeup got better, and he started working with two different fastballs and was clearly manipulating the shape of his spike curveball depending on the hitter and situation. He’s never had arm issues (his 2018 IL stint was due to an oblique injury), and he has rare on-mound athleticism coupled with an understanding of how to pitch. He’s going to have three out-pitches thanks to adjustments he’s already made, and it’s fair to assume he’ll be able to make more. Manning is tracking like an All-Star starter and a potential top-of-the-rotation arm.

We would not have guessed that, at this stage, the two-sport prep pitching prospect in this system would have lower perceived variance than the dominant SEC arm who went first in his draft class, but here we are. Mize has hellacious stuff. His four-pitch mix has actually gotten better since college because he and the Tigers successfully added greater demarcation between his cutter and slider, the latter of which now has more two-plane sweep. His entire repertoire is capable of missing bats, like Manning’s, but Mize’s split is superior to Manning’s change and he has an additional weapon, the cutter, that Manning does not.

So why ever-so-slightly prefer Manning? Mize’s injury track record is as scary as his stuff. Some teams had concerns about his shoulder when he was a draft-eligible high schooler, he had elbow issues as a sophomore at Auburn, he had a PRP injection after he pitched for Team USA the summer before his draft year, and in 2019, he missed a month with a shoulder injury. After Mize returned, he had some outings where his fastball was in the 90-92 range, he used his splitter less frequently, and when he did use it, it had more spin than usual. It’s speculation, but perhaps he was tinkering with changeup grips after the injury. That’s an awful lot of smoke. Purely on quality of stuff, Mize is arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. We still love him and think it’s perfectly reasonable to consider him the top youngster in this system and one of the best on the planet, but what Manning has become, what he might continue to develop into based on his athleticism and now-evident ability to make adjustments, combined with his much, much cleaner bill of health, shades him ahead of Mize, in our (mostly Eric’s) opinion, within the same FV tier.

Advanced high school hitters are common on Florida’s diamonds, and while Greene constantly squared up top high school pitching as well as any of his peers, he also underwent a bit of a physical transformation that made at least some scouts more optimistic that he’ll be able to play an instincts-driven center field long term. During his pre-draft summer, Greene was a little soft-bodied, his running gait was odd, and he seemed destined to play little more than an average outfield corner. The player scouts watched the following spring had a better physical composition, was more explosive and a better runner, and had as ripe a high school hit tool as was available in the draft. This was similar to how Jarred Kelenic’s skills were colored as he came out of high school.

Greene’s swing, curated by his father from an early age, is beautiful. He can clear his hips and turn on just about anything on the inner half, drop the bat head and lift balls with power, strike balls the other way with authority, and he tracked and whacked many high school benders. The bend and flexion in Greene’s front knee as his swing clears the point of impact is reminiscent of several Dodger hitters. Though there are many examples of Greene having certain types of athleticism (he is a tremendous leaper, for instance), he’s not a runner and we don’t have him in center field. But we think he’ll hit enough that it doesn’t matter.

Skubal was rehabbing from Tommy John during his junior year at Seattle University and only managed to throw a few bullpen sessions in front of scouts before the 2017 draft. Scouts liked what they saw, but not enough to meet a price tag that was up around $1 million according to sources. Skubal went back to school and was horrendous early in the year before he slowly began to throw more and more strikes. Now 29 teams and their evaluators are cursing themselves for either failing to notice that upward trend throughout the 2018 spring, or for noticing but lacking conviction in the draft room.

There are some folks in baseball who have Skubal right up in the same tier with Mize and Manning. He has a dominant fastball, equal parts velocity, ride, and tough-to-square angle. So unhittable is Skubal’s heater that he’s struck out 37% of hitters during his pro career (48% over the final few weeks over Double-A play last year) while throwing the pitch roughly 70% of the time. No current big leaguer with a fastball that plays at the top of the zone throws their fastball that much; anyone close to 70% is a sinkerballer. An occasionally good changeup and slider aside, Skubal’s secondaries are not all that great in a vacuum, but luckily they too benefit from the funky angle created by Skubal’s cross-bodied, high-slot delivery. His overall swinging strike rate (18%) was higher than the rate on his fastball alone (15%), which means the secondaries were a net positive for him, but we’re unsure of what big league hitters will do if they know a fastball aimed at the letters is coming most of the time. So while he’s had nothing but goofy strikeout rates for two years, we think Skubal ends up more toward the middle of a rotation rather than the front.

Paredes has a .291/.376/.425 line in 166 Double-A games. He’s quite comfortable in the box, and shows balance throughout his swing and incredible hand-eye coordination. A lack of in-game power and/or defensive excellence, combined with the abnormally high bar to clear at third base right now, may overshadow Paredes’ short-term impact in a league-wide context. Body-related concerns about his athletic longevity pinch what we think he’ll do in his late 20s. Paredes should hit enough to be an average everday player, like Luis Arraez except on a corner.

We were quick to move off of Faedo after he sat out the summer of 2017, then returned in 2018 with a fastball several ticks lower than where it was at peak, but we did so prematurely. Much of his velocity was back in 2019. He’s still searching for a consistent changeup, one with a little more velocity separation than it currently has, but Faedo’s slider and slider command give him an out-pitch. He’s thrown about 120 innings each of the last several years and should end up with a similar big league workload, a No. 4/5 starter.

Wentz has given scouts a number of different looks over the years: he hit the showcase circuit as a position player while resting his arm, showing 70-grade raw power, then showed 92-95 heat and a plus curveball at times in an uneven spring, followed by a full season debut where he mostly sat 88-91 with a great changeup. In 2018, Wentz had shoulder and oblique issues and his stuff played closer to average; in 2019 he was a bit healthier and better. He still has a near ideal frame and athleticism to go with a bag of 50- and 55-grade pitches and other qualities that give him a good shot to be a No. 4/5 starter.

The Tigers are in a bit of a pickle with Perez. He’s one of the few position players in the system who has a realistic chance of playing some sort of everyday role because of his speed, defensive profile, and feel for contact. He’s also still very young, physically immature, and a very raw swinger from the left side of the plate. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible next winter. Unless Perez grows into better quality contact, be it physically, mechanically, or both, he may become one of the several quality prospects who get exposed in the Rule 5 every year because the parent club thinks they’re too raw for other teams to bite. Red Sox 2019 Rule 5 pick, Jonathan Arauz, is a similar player. For now, Perez projects as a second-division regular at shortstop so long as the bat-to-ball feel turns into more than spray/grounder contact.

2019 was the worst statistical season of Cameron’s career by far. Strikeout frequency (which had been an underlying issue throughout much of his pro tenure) combined with a low BABIP (well below Cameron’s career norm) to generate a .214/.330/.377 line. He still had 40 extra-base hits, and Cameron’s all-fields power (he doesn’t have huge raw, but he does have wall-scraping pop to center and right center because the swing has some inside out elements) and selectivity give him the ability to do some slugging damage and reach base amid all the whiffing. Daz has been a known prospect for seven or eight years now. He’s got great body control but isn’t especially toolsy, and his instincts and baseball acumen play a large role in his defensive ability and baserunning. Overall, he’s a well-rounded player with fair tools, a 1.5 WAR type.

Perez’s first few pro seasons were notable because of how quickly Houston pushed him through the minors. A polished strike-thrower with four good pitches, he reached Double-A as a 19-year-old back in 2017 before he became the centerpiece of the Justin Verlander deal. Advanced though he was, various injuries have robbed Perez of innings. In 2016, he had knee trouble; in 2018, it was a lat strain, then shoulder inflammation. An ominous trap issue popped up during the early parts of 2019 spring training but Perez was back on the mound quickly and sitting his usual 93-96 into late-March, before he had three IL stints — in April, May, and June — and was shut down for the year.

He has yet to throw more than 86 frames in an entire season, so while he may be fairly advanced for someone his age, and definitely for someone who has pitched so little, the industry has yet to see his stuff hold up for a whole summer of starter’s innings. He has mid-rotation stuff, but has one of the longest injury histories in the minors, and he’s barely 22.

The younger brother of Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, Parker has some similarities to his big league sibling, but his tools are actually compared more often to those of Indians center fielder Bradley Zimmer. Zimmer and the younger Meadows both have deceptively easy plus speed due to their long frames, and each has a plus arm and plus raw power; Christian Yelich is the advanced hitter version of this profile. But as a high schooler, Meadows’ main concern was tied to contact issues caused by his long limbs and lack of rhythm at the plate. The Tigers took him in the second round out of high school in 2018 and he hasn’t quite dialed in the offensive approach yet, with a high strikeout rate in the summer after signing and marginal power in his full-season debut, but the upside remains the same.

Quintana had a four-year track record of statistical performance dating back to his senior year of high school, but after the draft he suddenly stopped hitting against Low-A and Short Season pitching. His swing is somewhat grooved, but he has an athletic move forward and should hit a ton of doubles. A well-rounded offensive skillset and above-average defense at third is an everyday profile, but there’s some hit-tool risk here.

Lange’s velocity last year was back to what it was during his best days at LSU, and his strikeout rate spiked after the Cubs traded him to Detroit in the Nick Castellanos deal and he was moved to the bullpen. Our high speed footage shows Lange throwing two different breaking balls, though their movement is hard to distinguish in real time. The slider is effective despite lacking spin, and has late, downward movement. Lange might fit in a multi-inning relief role.

Castro shares many offensive similarities with a young Freddy Galvis. He’s a switch-hitter with some pop who hasn’t totally figured out how to get to that power in games yet. Galvis, who is a superior defender, figured it out and became a low-OBP, 45 FV type of player, so Castro fits in a tier below that. He may be a placeholder at shortstop.

Hess was a well-known power arm on the high school summer showcase circuit and into the spring, showing mid-90s heat, a plus power curveball, and a reliever’s command and approach in his best stints. Due to the prep righty reliever profile, his price wasn’t met and he went to LSU, where they tried to make him a starter after a solid freshman year in relief. The starter role never quite took, as he mostly sat in the low-90s with lesser stuff. His stuff got back to his showcase circuit best in pro ball in short stints, which seems like the best role for him going forward.

De la Cruz has a right field prospect toolkit straight out of central casting — plus raw power, plus arm, average underway speed, contact issues at present — and a year of DSL statistical performance arguably derived from his physical maturity. His Trackman data is very strong, especially for his age. He could be a middle of the order power bat, but he’s years away.

Injuries — shoulder inflammation, biceps tendinitis, oblique strain — ruined Burrows’ 2019. When healthy (well, when he was pitching), Burrows’ fastball was fine, but his secondaries were not. He could bounce back into the 45 FV tier if they’re back in 2020.

Packard’s junior year power output dipped because of injuries (back and wrist), but he had a stock-up summer after the draft. He’s patient, has above-average raw power, and looks like a potential Lucas Duda type of lefty stick.

Contact-related warts and all, we still like Rogers as a low-end regular who played elite defense while hitting for some pull power, much like what Austin Hedges has been. We’re not sure how valuable the foundation of Rogers’ skillset will be in a few years if automated strike zones are instituted, and fear interesting players like this will disappear if they are.

Hernandez is one of two Angels rookie-level pitchers Detroit received in the Ian Kinsler (Hernandez) and Justin Upton (Elvin Rodriguez) trades. Of the two, Hernandez is the one who experienced an uptick in velocity. Both had been in the 88-92 range with frames that portended more. Then last year, Hernandez was suddenly up to 96. And there might be another jump if Hernandez ends up in the bullpen, where he’d be a power fastball/breaking ball reliever. His changeup quality and year-over-year strike-throwing improvements merit continued development in the rotation, and give Hernandez a shot to be a No. 4/5 starter.

Reyes is one of several examples of Detroit targeting physically mature corner bats with present raw power on the amateur market. He worked out as a shortstop as an amateur but projected to third base at best. He has an athletic, rotational swing and plus bat speed, and his bat path has some natural lift, while his frame appears destined to add considerable mass and strength. Arm accuracy and mobility issues, especially as he gets bigger, could move Reyes way, way down the defensive spectrum, but he could end up with above or plus hit and power tools.

Clemens had a pretty strong Florida State League line (.238/.314/.411 is above average in the FSL), albeit as an old-for-the-level hitter. He generates consistent hard contact because of the strength in his wrists and hands. His lower half and hands often appear disconnected, which can result in ugly contact that’s still hit hard because of Clemens’ strength. He projects as a one-ish win, shift-aided second baseman.

Even on a loaded Arkansas team, Kenley stayed under the national scouting radar since he didn’t play much until his junior year, and was an infielder without much power who didn’t play shortstop. He shows 45 raw power in BP, but has a flat swing plane that’s geared for line drives and contact. He seems like candidate for a swing change, but could also carve out a bench role as a lefty-hitting, contact oriented bench bat infielder along the lines of Tommy LaStella.

A vanilla but well-rounded college infielder, Kreidler’s best defensive fit is at third base, but he’s fundamentally sound enough to stand at a middle infield spot if needed. A conservative, contact-oriented approach coupled with limited raw power shade the projection toward a bench infield/utility type.

Campos defected from Cuba with his brother in 2016 at a Little League tournament in the Dominican Republic. The Tigers locked him up pretty quickly after their first couple looks, with some clubs barely seeing him at all. He’s a corner outfield prospect with present power who needs to hit to profile. We know next to nothing about the hit tool at this point.

The career saves leader at Miami, Garcia tore through the minors and pitched across four levels, all the way to Triple-A, in his first full pro season. Then he blew out during the spring of 2018. He works fastball/slider to righties, fastball/changeup to lefties, and both secondaries are very firm, upper-80s pitches. Neither is a dominant offering, but the pitch mix lifts Garcia above an up/down role.

Chiang is going to pitch in the big leagues next year. He throws hard (up to 96 during a pre-tournament exhibition, up to 98 during the 2019 minor league season) and has a backspinning fastball due to his vertical arm slot. He’ll also flash a plus changeup, which he uses against right-handed hitters sometimes, and his two-plane slider is fringy. It’s an arm strength relief profile.

He’s not as physically projectable as most pitchers his age, but Montero’s fastball will crest around 95 and he has a potential out-pitch in his curveball.

Funkhouser was added to Detroit’s 40-man despite more injury and erratic performance in 2019. At times he’ll show three above-average pitches; at others he can’t get anyone out. He hasn’t thrown more than 100 innings in any pro season, and at this point he’s considered a relief prospect with a long track record of injury.

Rodriguez was an advanced pitchability righty with physical projection when Detroit acquired him from the Angels for Justin Upton. He’s now 22, and the velo hasn’t arrived. He still has a great build and arm action, but he’s looking like a sixth or seventh starter now because the heat just hasn’t come.

Lipcius moved from first base as a freshman, to shortstop as a sophomore, to his natural home of third base as a junior at Tennessee, and then all over the infield during his first taste of pro ball. He hit for more power in his draft year than was expected given a contact-oriented approach (Lipcius ditches his leg kick with two strikes, and he’s willing to poke balls, softly, the other way). He projects as a multi-positional bench infielder.

Garcia spent most of 2019 at Double-A Trenton, where he posted a FIP of 4.21, then he went first overall in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft. He sits 91-94 and touches 95 with pretty significant fastball spin for that velo range — about 2400 rpm on average — but because Garcia has a lower arm slot, the pitch doesn’t have the kind of lift that would miss bats. The arm slot and Garcia’s above-average, two-plane breaking ball make him especially tough on righties, who he held to a .197/.273/.356 line in 2019. The changeup needs to get better if Garcia is going to continue to start, but Detroit is becoming quite good at implementing coherent pitch design, so maybe it will, or perhaps the Tigers will find a way to give him a relevant second breaking ball.

Foley’s arm strength was back after his Tommy John, but his out-pitch changeup was not. His secondary pitch of choice last year was a slider. He’d be a 40 FV with that split/change back in the fold, but as an arm strength-only sort, he’s more of an up/down reliever.

“This guy isn’t pitching yet?” one of us was asked by a source as we talked about this system. Alcantara has a laser arm, he can run, he’s a good defensive shortstop, and he even has above-average ball/strike recognition. But the quality of contact is arguably insufficient for even a utility role. He’s nearly out of option years. We wonder if reps in center might enable a 26th man sort of role, but also think it’s possible the Tigers give a conversion to the mound a shot since Detroit is getting better at developing pitchers, including a few interesting conversion arms.

Pinto has a huge fastball and both of his secondaries dovetail in opposite directions, but neither has consistent, bat-missing movement. Fold in a career walk rate in the teens, and even though he’s doing damage with his fastball at Double-A, Pinto was passed over in the Rule 5. He’s only 21 and is a realistic up/down relief prospect with some ceiling above that due to the arm strength.

He doesn’t have sleeves (which is the nature of the garment) but Vest still does a good job hiding the ball from hitters. His deceptive, overhand delivery looks like a trebuchet and creates late carry on his fastball, which sat 94 and touched 97 during the season, but was 91-93 in Eric’s Fall league looks. His secondary stuff is more average, so it’s important the velo returns.

Two seasons ago, Guzman was an exciting, new conversion arm who was sitting in the mid-90s and rapidly gaining feel for a good changeup. But in 2019, his stuff was down, his command backed up, and he was eventually shut down with injury. Rather than a 2019 leap placing Guzman in late-inning air, he’s now a bounce-back candidate who won’t be on the list if his velo isn’t back in the spring.

An extreme strike-thrower, Richan is severly lacking in stuff. He relies on freezing people and inducing weak contact with his changeup and fastball location. He’s likely a sixth starter type.

McMillan is an athletic, well-built catcher with ball/strike recognition, and a slow bat. He projects as a third catcher on the 40-man, and his build suggests he’ll probably hang around for a while.

De Jesus signed at 19 and had been slow to develop (he spent parts of three seasons in the DSL) until 2019, when he skipped a level, then earned a mid-year promotion to Hi-A. He throws hard — 91-96 with huge extension — and his fastball has relevant movement up and away from lefty batters. He’s well-built but not very athletic, and he throws a lot of non-competitive pitches because he struggles to repeat. He’s a lower probability reliever but there’s some ceiling because of how the fastball plays.