The Minnesota Twins and a short first round playoff series: Name a more iconic duo. The Twins have been quietly excellent this year, compiling the seventh-best run differential in baseball. To be sure, some of that is because they have the good fortune of facing fellow AL Central clubs, but a lot of it is because their team is full of good pitchers. They’ll meet the Toronto Blue Jays in a Wild Card clash. You’ve probably watched and heard a lot about the Blue Jays this year, and I’ll get to them, but let’s start with the thing you probably most need to hear: The Twins are good, not just the token AL Central representative, and they got a lot better when you probably weren’t paying attention.

The Minnesota rotation might be short on name recognition relative to some other playoff squads, but Pablo López and Sonny Gray are each top 10 pitchers by WAR this year. Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober are both above average as well – Ryan will likely draw the third start, but the other two will surely be available to relieve him if necessary. They’re one of those classic playoff tropes, the team you hate to face because so much of their value is concentrated in good pitching. López has gone six or more innings while allowing one or fewer runs 11 times this year; Gray has done it nine times himself. It’s easy to imagine the Jays coming into Minneapolis and leaving with very few runs to show for their trip. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a week at the end of every season when Triple-A welcomes some of baseball’s top prospects for a brief stint at the minor leagues’ highest level before they hang up their cleats for the year (or in many cases, head to the Arizona Fall League). Expanded rosters at the big league level leave a slew of freshly vacated Triple-A roster spots. Meanwhile, the Low-, High-, and Double-A seasons end when there’s still a week left on the Triple-A schedule, creating a sizable pool of lower-level up-and-comers. These prospects, especially the younger ones, are looking to prove themselves capable of standing up to competition beyond what their developmental schedule might otherwise deem appropriate. It’s also a big reason why so many of the following year’s prospect list write-ups include some version of the phrase “He notched a few innings at Triple-A at the end of last season.”

One such prospect this year is Ricky Tiedemann, the young lefty hurler who sits atop the Blue Jays prospect list and currently ranks 18th on our overall Top 100. If that résumé sounds oddly familiar, you may be picking up echos of recent big league debutant Kyle Harrison, who tops the Giants list and is stacked just spot above Tiedemann on our Top 100. The similarities don’t end there, though. Both Harrison and Tiedemann were drafted as teenagers, and both boast a tremendous punchout ability that belies their years, posting strikeout rates above 40% at various points in their young pro careers.

Before I continue, a caveat: Due to a combination of mid-season arm soreness and a short leash when it came to his pitch count, Tiedemann only threw 44 innings in 2023. That’s important to keep in mind, especially considering that Harrison’s lowest innings total in a pro season is more than double that. Tiedemann still has to demonstrate that he’s capable of maintaining his prowess over the type of innings load that Harrison has endured. With that established, let’s dig into how the two young southpaws resemble one another, and more importantly, what sets Tiedemann apart, at least for now. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Michael King proved that moving him to the rotation was the best maneuver the Yankees have made in the entire second half by striking out 13 Blue Jays over seven innings. Somewhat lost in the shuffle, as has often been the case over the past few seasons, was Kevin Gausman’s dominance opposite King.

Gausman, who was perhaps better known for his firm fastball as a prospect, has really only taken off since the heater and splitter entered into a timeshare. After only using the split at a 35% clip in one year previously, he’s turned to it at least that often every year since 2021. This season, its usage is at a career-high 38.5%.

The Jays’ right-hander actually out-whiffed King on Wednesday, 17–16, with 11 swings and misses on the split. In terms of balls in play, both King and Gausman allowed just three at an exit velocity of 95 mph or harder. While the whiffs are staples of both pitchers’ games, the hard hits are especially noteworthy; King’s hard-hit rate on the season — 31.4% — ranks fourth lowest among pitchers with at least 90 innings, and Gausman’s, at 11.5 percentage points higher, ranks a paltry 108th. If you prefer barrel rate, King (6.8%) ranks 22nd lowest and Gausman (9.8%) 110th. Read the rest of this entry »

In the Beforetimes, mid-September brought my annual check-in on the potential for end-of-season chaos in the playoff races via the Team Entropy series. With last year’s introduction of an expanded and restructured postseason, however, Major League Baseball did away with the potential for scheduling mayhem in favor of a larger inventory of playoff games. Along with the expansion of the playoff field from 10 teams to 12 and of the Wild Card round from a pair of winner-take-all games to a quartet of three-game series, MLB also eliminated all winner-take-all regular-season tiebreaker games. In the name of efficiency, we have no more Games 163 and no more potential Bucky Dents. Instead, ties, even for spots where the winner would receive a postseason berth and the loser would go home, are decided by mathematics. It’s enough to make a fan want to shout, “Hey, Manfred, pull your head out of a spreadsheet and watch an elimination game!”

The untangling of the often-chaotic scenarios by which those one-game tiebreakers could come about was Team Entropy’s raison d’etre. But particularly with so many close races, there’s still enough untangling to do in potentially complex tie scenarios that I’ve chosen to continue a version of this exercise, pouring out a cold one for what might have been. If what we’re left with isn’t exactly chaotic, you can thumb your nose at the commissioner as you take a seat on the Team Un-Tropy bandwagon. Read the rest of this entry »

Area Scout – North Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas

Primary Focus:
Be the leading expert in all the amateur baseball talent in your assigned geographic area, with a strong pulse on amateur prospects among all age groups (draft eligible or otherwise). Ensure the Blue Jays have the most complete information possible about all amateur prospects both on and off the field. Collaborate with all departments of the Blue Jays organization around philosophy, baseball opinions and professional development to sustain amateur draft success by facilitating holistic player evaluations, recruiting and educating players about the Blue Jays. Uphold the vision and values of the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club in a professional manner both on and off the field.

Responsibilities and Duties:

• Provide written scouting evaluations on amateur players throughout the year in assigned area via in-person and video coverage; create and update pref lists for current and future draft-eligible players throughout the spring, summer and fall.  
• Support the Amateur Scouting Department with gathering subjective and objective information about amateur players of interest in one’s area, including but not limited to off-field and on-field makeup, objective testing, injury history and background information.
• Organize and communicate scheduling for amateur baseball games within assigned area. 
• Conduct visits with players within assigned area and assist with the execution of player interviews and assessments during fall and winter months. 
• Build and maintain working relationships with players, player support system, coaches, advisors, and other key figures related to amateur baseball within one’s area.
• Provide written scouting evaluations at local and national amateur events as assigned by Amateur Scouting leadership.
• Provide written scouting evaluations from Pro Scouting coverage as assigned in the summer and fall.
• Coordinate workouts with Amateur Scouting leadership and supporting departments to assist in player evaluation.
• Work with Crosscheckers and other Baseball Operations staff to further develop one’s scouting ability and ensure the thorough collection, organization, and understanding of the information needed to make informed decisions on amateur players.
• Complete evaluative and background coverage of all players including those flagged by the Front Office.
• Communicate with Amateur Scouting Leadership and office on ways to improve individually, as a department, and as a team.
• Manage all administrative tasks in a timely and professional manner (including scouting reports, expenses, schedule updates, high school stats and injury history).
• Travel to several regional and full staff scouting meetings throughout the year.

Experience and Job Requirements:

• Proficient scouting ability and baseball knowledge.  2+ years of baseball-related work experience preferred.  
• Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with wide range of individuals including members of the front office, scouts, players, and field staff.
• Strong administrative skills to ensure the appropriate level of information on all amateur players.  
• Passion for baseball and excellent problem-solving and communication skills.
• Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office required.
• Baseball playing background is preferred, although not required.
• Ability to travel on a sporadic basis and to work unpredictable hours including nights and weekends in one’s area.
• Demonstrate flexible and efficient time-management skills.
• Comply with the policies and procedures of the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club.

Job Questions:

1. Are you willing to relocate?

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Area Scout – Georgia/South Carolina

Primary Focus:
Be the leading expert in all the amateur baseball talent in your assigned geographic area, with a strong pulse on amateur prospects among all age groups (draft eligible or otherwise). Ensure the Blue Jays have the most complete information possible about all amateur prospects both on and off the field. Collaborate with all departments of the Blue Jays organization around philosophy, baseball opinions and professional development to sustain amateur draft success by facilitating holistic player evaluations, recruiting and educating players about the Blue Jays. Uphold the vision and values of the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club in a professional manner both on and off the field.

Responsibilities and Duties:

• Provide written scouting evaluations on amateur players throughout the year in assigned area via in-person and video coverage; create and update pref lists for current and future draft-eligible players throughout the spring, summer and fall.  
• Support the Amateur Scouting Department with gathering subjective and objective information about amateur players of interest in one’s area, including but not limited to off-field and on-field makeup, objective testing, injury history and background information.
• Organize and communicate scheduling for amateur baseball games within assigned area. 
• Conduct visits with players within assigned area and assist with the execution of player interviews and assessments during fall and winter months. 
• Build and maintain working relationships with players, player support system, coaches, advisors, and other key figures related to amateur baseball within one’s area.
• Provide written scouting evaluations at local and national amateur events as assigned by Amateur Scouting leadership.
• Provide written scouting evaluations from Pro Scouting coverage as assigned in the summer and fall.
• Coordinate workouts with Amateur Scouting leadership and supporting departments to assist in player evaluation.
• Work with Crosscheckers and other Baseball Operations staff to further develop one’s scouting ability and ensure the thorough collection, organization, and understanding of the information needed to make informed decisions on amateur players.
• Complete evaluative and background coverage of all players including those flagged by the Front Office.
• Communicate with Amateur Scouting Leadership and office on ways to improve individually, as a department, and as a team.
• Manage all administrative tasks in a timely and professional manner (including scouting reports, expenses, schedule updates, high school stats and injury history).
• Travel to several regional and full staff scouting meetings throughout the year.

Experience and Job Requirements:

• Proficient scouting ability and baseball knowledge.  2+ years of baseball-related work experience preferred.  
• Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with wide range of individuals including members of the front office, scouts, players, and field staff.
• Strong administrative skills to ensure the appropriate level of information on all amateur players.  
• Passion for baseball and excellent problem-solving and communication skills.
• Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office required.
• Baseball playing background is preferred, although not required.
• Ability to travel on a sporadic basis and to work unpredictable hours including nights and weekends in one’s area.
• Demonstrate flexible and efficient time-management skills.
• Comply with the policies and procedures of the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club.

Job Questions:

1. Are you willing to relocate?

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Toronto Blue Jays.

You already know the deal with the Blue Jays, so much so that I barely have to mention it. The good players on their team? They’re major league legacies. As kids, they were in major league clubhouses. There are cute pictures of them, chubby-cheeked, watching their famous parents win various accolades. Their major league success was hardly preordained, but let’s just say it didn’t come out of nowhere.

That lazy narrative had already sprung a few leaks, even before this year. Matt Chapman and George Springer don’t quite fit the bill. Kevin Gausman and Jordan Romano don’t either. Cavan Biggio isn’t even a starter. But there’s perhaps no better counter-example than Davis Schneider, the Jays’ newest star. Schneider flew so far under the radar that the metaphor doesn’t work; he was almost subterranean. He was a 28th-round draft pick in 2017, a round that doesn’t exist anymore. He didn’t reach Double-A until the end of the 2022 season. Now he’s the best hitter on the Jays, and in at least a few contrived ways that I’ll endeavor to show you in this article, he might be the best hitter of all time.

I know what you’re thinking. “Really, Ben? The best hitter of all time? He’s not even the best hitter on his own team right now.” To that I say, sure, you might think that. But that’s based on your perception of the future. If we limit our analysis to merely what has happened on the field, no Blue Jays hitter even approaches Schneider’s magnificence. Read the rest of this entry »

With Instructional League underway in Arizona (casts look of disappointment toward Florida) and Fall League rosters likely about two weeks out, the time has come to line the coffers with data and re-worked scouting reports in preparation for another round of farm system audits. Especially at the up-the-middle positions, defense is both very important and also a bit of a black box for readers, as there aren’t many publicly available minor league defensive stats and so much of evaluating defense is visual. I’ve recently been working on a video deep dive on the position players currently graded as 50 FV prospects or better, specifically to evaluate their defense in detail. Here I’ve taken a pass at the shortstops, providing video supplements for the prospects who I’ve evaluated in the 55 FV tier and above. I’ve made changes to their defense and arm tool grades over on The Board as a result of this exercise, and highlight the instances where this has caused a change to the player’s overall FV grade in the analysis below.

I’ve cut the videos in such a way that you can see each shortstop making similar plays one right after another. The videos feature plays to their left where I want to see them flip their hips and throw, plays that show the extreme end of their range, backhand plays in the hole to their right, plays coming in on the grass, and double play attempts. The fewest balls in play I watched for an individual player was 36 (Colson Montgomery and Dyan Jorge) and the most was closer to 70 (Jackson Holliday, Carson Williams and Marcelo Mayer). Read the rest of this entry »

The Toronto Blue Jays have devoted huge resources to their rotation, spending a first-round pick on Alek Manoah, doling out huge free agent contracts to Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, and trading the farm for José Berríos. (And then giving Berríos a huge contract extension as well.)

But Toronto’s best starting pitcher over the past month — and in a three-way tie for the best pitcher in all of baseball, by WAR — has been Yusei Kikuchi, the guy who couldn’t stay in the rotation a year ago. Read the rest of this entry »

About 12 hours after Bo Bichette left Monday night’s game with a right knee injury, the Blue Jays found his possible replacement, acquiring shortstop Paul DeJong and cash considerations from the Cardinals on Tuesday afternoon for minor league reliever Matt Svanson.

DeJong being relevant again might make you think that you’ve warped back to pre-2020 days, but hang on before you load up on masks and toilet paper; he’s actually had a nice little 2023 season. I don’t think anyone would argue with me if I said the Cardinals were having a season with a stunning lack of pleasant surprises, but DeJong’s year has been one of those rarities. While a triple-slash of .233/.297/.412 won’t get you to many All-Star Games, it’s a much prettier line than his .196/.280/.351 collapse from 2020 to ’22, reaching a nadir with a ’22 season in which DeJong needed a telescope just to see the Mendoza line. He still plays solid defense at shortstop, and his bat has rebounded enough that there’s once again a significant role for him on a major league roster. The only reason he was even in St. Louis this year was the six-year contract he signed before the 2018 season.

The #BlueJays are sending minor-league reliever Matt Svanson, 24, in return for Paul DeJong and cash considerations. DeJong, who's in the final year of a six-year, $26 million contract, earns $9M this year with a $12.5M option or $2M buyout in 2024.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) August 1, 2023

While this piece has the “2023 trade deadline tag,” that’s actually kind of a lie; this is a regular ol’ injury replacement trade that just happened to coincide with the deadline. The full extent of Bichette’s injury probably won’t be known before the trade market closes up shop for the fall, so the Jays had to act quickly unless they wanted to try to replace him in-house. And while they had options in the organization, all of them had at least one seriously concerning issue. Santiago Espinal is more an emergency shortstop than a starter, and Cavan Biggio only has two professional innings at short. And neither is providing enough offense to make you want to take that defensive risk. In the minors, Addison Barger has suffered through elbow problems this season and isn’t a natural shortstop either, and Orelvis Martinez just debuted at Triple-A. Ernie Clement turning into a weird plate discipline deity is interesting, but more for a bad team in search of an upside play, not a team in a tight, crowded pennant race that needs some certainty.

DeJong’s options are now a little more complicated. At $12.5 million and $15 million, I imagine the Cardinals would have declined them as they did with Kolten Wong after a solid 2020 season. He has a $2 million buyout for 2024, and there may be a scenario in which the Jays pick it up if Bichette’s injury turns out to be fairly serious one. Is $10.5 million (since $2 million is baked into the cake either way) minus whatever the Cardinals are sending with him not worth it for them to keep DeJong as the starting shortstop for an undetermined part of next season before making him a utility infielder?

There was no reason to expect the Cardinals to get a haul of prospects for DeJong. Svanson is having a bit of a breakout season in the minors as a reliever, but you can’t ignore the fact that it’s as a 24-year-old in High-A ball. My colleague Eric Longenhagen has his two-seamer at 92–94 mph and his slider at 84, and that he would be an honorable mention in the Jays prospect list but would not make the main rankings. ZiPS turns Svanson’s 1.23 ERA/2.55 FIP into a 4.30 ERA translation with the Cardinals in 2023 because, well, 24-year-old in High-A ball. But if he advances quickly — and he will need to in order to have any kind of career in the majors — he could show up at the back of the big league bullpen.

Toronto would much prefer that Bichette’s knee is a minor issue that resolves quickly, but they’ve rightly formulated a solid Plan B here. There’s literally no time like the present.

*****BREAKING NEWS UPDATE EMERGENCY SIREN JAZZ HANDS*****

There’s no serious damage to Bichette’s knee, though it’s not determined whether or not he will need to head onto the IL. At the very least, we might see Bichette play more DH as they work him back into the lineup, whenever it is, and DeJong still remains a quality Plan B in the case of a setback. Bichette’s injury not being a serious one does reduce the chance that the Blue Jays will pick up one of DeJong’s options.

As everyone has seen by now, an MRI showed there is no structural damage in Bo Bichette’s right knee, per #BlueJays manager John Schneider, who described it as best case scenarios. Bichette isn’t in the lineup today but he’s day to day. Still determining if an IL stint is needed

— Kaitlyn McGrath (@kaitlyncmcgrath) August 1, 2023

*****END COMMUNIQUE*****

The Cardinals are officially engaging in a moderate short-term rebuild, trading Jordan Hicks to Toronto for pitching prospects Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, and Jordan Montgomery to Texas for righty Tekoah Roby, infielder Thomas Saggese, and reliever John King. Each of these players could suit up for the Cardinals in the big leagues within the next 12 months, especially King (already a big leaguer) and the two pitchers coming back from Toronto, who will likely be added to the 40-man roster after the season. Roby and Saggese have spent their 2023 seasons at Double-A Frisco and are within range of the majors even though they don’t have to be put on the 40-man until after the 2024 slate. You can see where each of the newly-acquired prospects falls on the Cardinals list over on The Board.

Let’s start by going over the Montgomery return, since the most significant prospect acquired by the Cardinals comes over in that deal. Roby, 21, moved onto the Top 100 prospects list when I updated the Rangers system a couple of weeks ago, and he would have been even higher if not for his current shoulder injury, which shelved him in early June. Before he was shut down, Roby was consistently working with four plus pitches. He was sitting 94–95 mph with riding life, bending in one of the nastier curveballs in the minors, tilting in a similarly shaped slider in the mid-80s, and turning over a tailing low-80s changeup, all of which were capable of missing bats. He looked like a contender’s four-pitch, mid-rotation starter, like a less physical Hunter Brown.

Roby’s delivery does have some violence, but he’s always thrown strikes in spite of this. He is slightly undersized (but well-built) at 6-foot-1 and has now had arm injuries in two of his three pro seasons, so there’s definitely relief risk here despite his strike-throwing track record. From a stuff and pitch execution standpoint, he is where Jack Leiter was expected to be when he was drafted. On upside, Roby is a huge get for the Cardinals and could be the big league club’s best starting pitcher within a year or two. Once healthy, he has a chance to kick down the door, though shoulder issues can be particularly scary and destabilizing to a young pitcher’s career. Read the rest of this entry »