In 2023, the Braves didn’t just lead the league in basically every offensive category, they posted historic numbers. They followed up that performance with a more middle-of-the-pack showing in 2024. Some of that downturn can be classified as regression to the mean, while some of it was definitely injury-related, with key contributors such as Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, and Austin Riley missing large chunks of the season. Moving forward, those theories imply that a healthy Braves lineup should perform somewhere in between their historically great 2023 and their exceptionally mediocre 2024. So far, however, the 2025 Braves have posted a gaunt 82 wRC+ as a team, creating anxiety that 2024 wasn’t just an unlucky draw from the low end of the range of possible outcomes, but rather something representative of a new normal, an indication that the range of possible outcomes in Atlanta has shifted downward. Of course, it’s too early to say for sure, especially since Acuña hasn’t made his 2025 debut, but batted ball and swing data, as well as changes in opponent pitching strategy, may offer insight into how pitchers have regained the upper hand when facing the Braves’ lineup.

If the extreme discrepancy in outcomes between 2023 and 2024 really was just variation within the error bars around Atlanta’s true talent level, then we’d expect to observe some amount of luck (good or bad) in their batted ball outcomes, which would lead their expected stats to diverge from their actual numbers, but the table below indicates their expected stats align pretty closely with reality:

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This seems like an apt moment to reexamine the concept of value. What is a relief pitcher worth? What is anything worth? The context matters quite a bit. In boom times, when you can barely remember a past in which the arrow pointed any direction but up, the upside feels so real that it’s hard to resist. Sure, a premier setup man with a short track record is a luxury, but what’s the harm in splurging? In the darker times, when the eggs sitting in your refrigerator have suddenly gone from basic staples to commodities so precious that you can’t afford to waste them on something as trivial as breakfast, you need to hunt for value wherever you can find it.

For an Astros team determined to reset its luxury tax penalty, that means trading away reliever Rafael Montero and eating 72% of the money remaining on his contract in order to be free of the other 28%. For the Braves, reeling from a series of early-season setbacks, that means taking a chance on the discounted Montero and his untested splitter in exchange for a player to be named later. Read the rest of this entry »

One weekend into the 2025 regular season, baseball is already throwing up some pretty big surprises. Here’s one: The Atlanta Braves have the worst record in baseball. The Braves! The perennial best non-Dodger team in the National League, with their Toyota pickup-level dependable lineup and fountain of talented young arms, went 0-4 against the Padres.

Then, on Monday afternoon, more bad news dropped: Jurickson Profar has been suspended 80 games for violating MLB’s policy on performance enhancing drugs. Minutes after Profar’s suspension came out, Reynaldo López was placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. All this comes amidst Brian Snitker, the club’s beloved and highly successful manager, hinting that he might hang up his lineup card at the end of the year. And to top off this day of crap, Grant Holmes got knocked around in the series opener against the Dodgers and Atlanta dropped to 0-5.

Fortunately, MLB Shop is already selling jerseys to commemorate the occasion:

As a general principle, I scoff at the idea that a bad weekend can be characterized as a crisis at any point before Labor Day. In case you disagree, consider that the team that ended the weekend atop the NL East was not the Phillies or Mets but the Marlins. Here’s a good rule of thumb: If the Marlins are in first place, it’s too early to panic. Even after the beatings continued against Dodgers, morale should not be bottoming out this early. Read the rest of this entry »

Every year, most teams hold some sort of team bonding, social event during spring training. The specifics of the event vary from team to team, but frequently they include renting out a movie theater and showing some cloying, inspirational movie like The Blind Side, Cool Runnings, Rudy, or better yet, a documentary like Free Solo. Regardless of the team’s outlook on the year, the goal is to get the players amped up for the season and ready to compete on the field, even if the competition in question is for fourth place in the division.

But what if instead of taking the clichéd route, teams actually tried to select a movie that fits their current vibe, one that’s thematically on brand with the state of their franchise? They won’t do this because spring training is a time for hope merchants to peddle their wares, even if they’re selling snake oil to sub-.500 teams. But spring training is over now, the regular season has begun, and it’s time to get real. So here are my movie selections for each National League team, sorted by release date from oldest to newest.

If you’re interested in which movies I selected for the American League teams, you can find those picks here. Read the rest of this entry »

The last few years, I’ve had a pre-Opening Day tradition of making five bold predictions about the upcoming season. It’s a good way to talk through some of the players and teams where my opinions are different from the crowd. But bold predictions are a boom industry – the entire FanGraphs staff will be making some tomorrow, and I already drafted 10 of my own on Effectively Wild. So Meg and I came up with a great substitute: five big questions about the season. These aren’t the only big questions I have. They aren’t even necessarily the biggest questions in baseball. But they’re five storylines that I think are unresolved, and their answers will have a lot to say about how the 2025 season goes.

1. Are the Rays still the Rays?
The Rays have been doing the same player-swapping roster construction trick for more than a decade now. They operate on a shoestring budget, they consistently find ways to trade their surplus for great value, and their pitching development is some of the best in the game. They’re constantly churning out top prospects, and even after graduating Junior Caminero, they boast one of the best farm systems in baseball.

That prospect pipeline keeps on delivering, but in 2024, the wins didn’t follow. The team finished below .500 for the first time since 2017, and got outscored by 59 runs in the process. The Rays didn’t do much this winter – trading Jeffrey Springs, and signing Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim were their big moves. We’re projecting them to finish last in the AL East – albeit still above .500. What happened to the 90-win perpetual juggernaut? Read the rest of this entry »

During the last week of spring training, after rosters have been more or less settled, some teams will find they have more pitchers than they can use at the moment. There’s a no. 6 starter who’s pitched well enough to earn a job, but there’s no room for him on the roster and he’s out of options. Good news: Another team needs a pitcher and is willing to trade a minor league depth infielder, say, to jump the waiver line and trade for yours.

I find this process oddly heartwarming, because everyone benefits: Both teams get a more balanced roster, and the pitcher in question gets a spot on a major league roster instead of getting DFA’d. Professional baseball is usually a zero-sum competition, but that doesn’t mean you can’t help your friends out. Read the rest of this entry »

As spring training nears its conclusion, a few unsigned free agents have finally found homes. At best only one of these players will be ready for the majors in time to make the Opening Day roster, and all of them struggled to at least some extent last year, but at the very least, they’ll get another chance to extend their careers by providing depth to organizations hit by injuries. A double whammy of bad luck within their rotation has led the Rangers to sign lefty Patrick Corbin, while the Braves have triple dipped into the pool to sign catcher James McCann, outfielder Alex Verdugo, and reliever Craig Kimbrel.

On Tuesday, March 11 — the day I checked in on the Rangers in the wake of Jacob deGrom’s Cactus League debut — righty Tyler Mahle was scratched from his scheduled start due to forearm soreness, though he was able to take a start against minor leaguers on March 13 and returned to big league action on March 19. Texas wasn’t so lucky when it came to lefty Cody Bradford, who was scratched from his scheduled March 12 start due to left elbow soreness. He’s been shut down from throwing for four weeks and ticketed for the 15-day injured list to start the season; barring any further setbacks, a full buildup would bring him back in mid-May. Then on March 15, righty Jon Gray was hit by a line drive and suffered a fractured right wrist that knocked him onto the 60-day injured list. The break is clean enough that he won’t need surgery, but he’ll be out until at least June.

Given those injuries — and assuming no other ones occur — the Rangers are on track to start the season with an all-righty rotation consisting of Nathan Eovaldi, deGrom (who threw a mere 10 2/3 innings for the Rangers last September after returning from his second Tommy John surgery), Mahle (who threw just 12 2/3 innings between his return from Tommy John surgery and a season-ending bout of shoulder tightness), and former first-round picks Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, who each made their debuts last year. Rocker made three starts totaling 11 2/3 innings while pitching reasonably well, but Leiter was lit for an 8.83 ERA in six starts and three relief appearances totaling 35 2/3 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

Ronald Acuña Jr. did something we’ve never seen in 2023, becoming the first player to combine at least 40 homers and 70 stolen bases in the same season en route to NL MVP honors. Unfortunately, Acuña followed up that spectacular season by doing something we had seen before when he tore his anterior cruciate ligament. Having already torn his right ACL just before the All-Star break in 2021, he tore his left one last May 26. While he was playing defense for the first one and stealing a base for the second, the end result was the same: season-ending surgery and a massive hole in the Braves’ lineup. The team has taken his rehab more slowly this time around. Acuña will start the year on the injured list, and likely miss the first month if not more.

When Acuña reported to camp in mid-February, the Braves said that he wouldn’t play in any Grapefruit League games. The 27-year-old slugger has since been cleared for some baseball activity, and has been entertaining onlookers with his long-distance home runs in batting practice, building a legend in the process. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Ken Suguria, Braves manager Brian Snitker claimed that one Acuña homer cleared a video board beyond left center field at CoolToday Park, the team’s spring facility — a shot that would have traveled at least 450 feet.

“[Hitting coach Tim Hyers] was saying he was in the cage the other day and [Acuña was] whistling that bat around like guys would do a Wiffle bat,” Snitker told reporters. “He’s probably as strong as he’s ever been right now.” Read the rest of this entry »

One way to tell the difference between a baseball fan who has a life and a true sicko is whether they have strong opinions on players who sign minor league contracts and attend spring training on a non-roster invite. The person in a Cubs hat who’s stoked about the Kyle Tucker trade and knows all sorts of intimate biographical details about Shota Imanaga? That’s your friend. If they start talking to you about Travis Jankowski, they might be in a little too deep.

We sickos know that while championships can be won and glory earned on the major league free agent market, NRIs are nonetheless a meaningful collection of useful roster players. Sometimes more. I’d argue that these fringe hopefuls are the only players who truly stand to gain by their performance in camp.

Moreover, these players are by definition underdogs. They include former top prospects, guys recovering from injury, and itinerant Quad-A players hoping for one last spin of the wheel. If you weren’t interested in their progress on a competitive level, surely we can interest you in an underdog story. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not much of a YouTube guy or, really, a fan of videos in general. If you send me an Instagram reel, I’m sorry, I will not watch it. But Lance Brozdowski delivers his baseball thoughts in video form, so I am compelled to make an exception. Lance’s posts prodded me to start writing about baseball in the first place; I always learn something when I watch his stuff and tend to agree with all of his analysis.

So I was shocked — shocked! — to hear him express pessimism about Spencer Schwellenbach in a recent video. All through this offseason, I’ve had the opposite thought: There isn’t enough enthusiasm about Schwellenbach’s rookie campaign, during which he posted a 3.29 FIP over 123.2 innings. But Lance wasn’t the only one with a tepid appreciation for the right-hander. Eno Sarris ranked him as his 34th-best starting pitcher; Thomas Nestico had him at no. 36. If I were obliged to make such a list, I might be pushing him some 20 spots higher. I think Schwellenbach’s rookie excellence can be repeated and even improved upon for one key reason: When he delivers the baseball, nobody knows what to expect. Read the rest of this entry »