Today we turn our attention to some chilly performances at the hot corner. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look.

Cubs

The Cubs began the season with 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw — no. 13 on our preseason Top 100 Prospects list as a 55-FV prospect — as their starter at third base, but he struggled out of the gate, hitting just .172/.294/.241 (62 wRC+) from Opening Day through April 14 before being optioned to Triple-A Iowa. Jon Berti did the bulk of the work in his absence, with Gage Workman, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez and even Justin Turner spotting there as well before Shaw was recalled on May 19. The 23-year-old rookie got hot upon returning, but struggled in June before starting July in a 1-for-27 funk; he is now batting just .198/.276/.280 (61 wRC+) with two homers, 11 steals, and 0.0 WAR. While he’s underperformed relative to his expected stats (including a .350 xSLG), his 83.3-mph average exit velocity places him in the first percentile, and his 26.8% hard-hit rate in the fifth. Notably, he rode the pine in the days leading up to the All-Star break, making one start and two late-inning appearances over the Cubs’ last five games. Manager Craig Counsell called Shaw’s absence from the lineup “just a little breather here.” Read the rest of this entry »

Toward the end of May, I wrote about Pete Crow-Armstrong’s crimes of passion. When the Cubs win a game on a walk-off, Crow-Armstrong isn’t just the first one out onto the field to celebrate. He’s out on the field before the winning run has even scored. The game is still in progress, the ball is still in play, but there’s Crow-Armstrong sprinting across the third base line like a heat-seeking missile, breaking the rules and pulling the hero who just knocked in the game-winning run into the tightest hug imaginable. It’s a pattern; a jubilant, sensuous, illegal-but-not-actionable pattern that plays out over the rising strains of “Go Cubs Go.”

Well, in the past five weeks, the Cubs have walked off their opponents two more times, and Crow-Armstrong has not disappointed. In the bottom of the 10th inning on June 15, Ian Happ walked off the Pirates with a line drive single into right field. Crow-Armstrong was on deck at the time, which meant that he was busy warming up and thinking about hitting. It also meant that he was right next to home plate, so he ended up shadowing Vidal Bruján as he scored the winning run, and only then changing course and sprinting out onto the field to congratulate Happ. For these reasons, he didn’t actually enter the field of play until nearly a full second after the game had ended, but don’t worry. He was still the first Cub on the field and the first to wrap Happ in a big, shaggy hug. His love was so powerful that the energy surge temporarily overloaded the Marquee Sports broadcast system. Read the rest of this entry »

Michael Busch had a pretty nice 2024. In his first taste of everyday playing time in the majors, he hit .248/.335/.440 and socked 21 homers on the way to a 118 wRC+. After years spent in the minors in the Dodgers system, he looked to finally be delivering on his high-strikeout, high-BABIP, high-doubles promise. The Cubs penciled him in as their everyday first baseman. That’s not an imposing batting line, but it’s better than average, so the team spent its winter trading for Kyle Tucker, not trying to upgrade from an already-acceptable situation at first base.

You’ll notice that I said high doubles instead of high power. That’s because Busch had desultory bat speed numbers; he was in the 24th percentile with a 70.3-mph average swing speed. It wasn’t an issue of him having a hard swing and a soft swing that he deployed at different times, either. His fast-swing rate, or the percentage of his swings measured at 75 mph or higher, was a mere 11.3%; league average is around 23%. Busch was adept at getting his barrel to the ball and posting good exit velocity numbers, but that’s generally a recipe for doubles instead of homers. He hit 28 doubles, two triples, and 21 home runs last season, about what was expected from his profile. He got the ball in the air a lot and still hit for a high BABIP – sounds pretty good to me.

What do you think Busch could do to improve his performance in 2025? My immediate answer: Swing faster and hit more homers. Hey, check it out! Busch has already hit 18 homers this year in just over half a season. He’s on pace to shatter his performance last season in pretty much every statistic. He’s hitting .297/.382/.562 with a 165 wRC+. There’s just one problem with my swing-hard-and-prosper theory: He’s not swinging harder. Read the rest of this entry »

Coming into 2025, you might not have expected Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement to play central roles on a playoff contender. Neither player was an above-average hitter last season; in fact, each hit for a 93 wRC+ while playing regularly for a team that won just 74 games. Yet the pair rank first and second in position player WAR on the Blue Jays, thanks not only to improved offense but exceptional glovework, with Kirk battling the Giants’ Patrick Bailey for the top spot in two catching metrics, and Clement ranking among the best third basemen while also posting strong metrics in limited duty at the three other infield positions. The pair have not only helped the Blue Jays to a 47-38 record and the top AL Wild Card position, but also the top ranking in my annual midseason defensive breakdown.

Kirk and Clement aren’t Toronto’s only defensive stalwarts. Second baseman Andrés Giménez and center fielder Myles Straw, a pair of light-hitting glove whizzes acquired from the Guardians in separate trades this past winter, have been strong at their respective positions, with the latter helping to cover for the absences of Daulton Varsho. A Gold Glove winner last year, Varsho missed the first month of this season recovering from right rotator cuff surgery, and returned to the injured list on June 1 due to a strained left hamstring. Even in limited duty, Straw, Varsho, and Giménez — who missed about four weeks due to a quad strain, with Clement filling in at second for most of that time — have all rated as three to five runs above average according to Statcast’s Fielding Runs Value (FRV), and five to eight above average according to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Clement has totaled 12 DRS and 10 FRV at the four infield spots; in 359.2 innings at third, he’s second in the majors in both DRS (7) and FRV (5).

This is the third year in a row I’ve taken a midseason dip into the alphabet soup of defensive metrics, including Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our own catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages). One longtime standby, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), has been retired, which required me to adjust my methodology. Read the rest of this entry »

You’re probably familiar with the saying, “Happiness equals reality minus expectations.” Maybe because your Aunt Debbie shared a post from her favorite social media influencer. Maybe because you passed the time during a layover at the airport perusing the self-help books in the Hudson News near your gate. Like most self-help tropes, whether or not it hits for you depends a little on your life circumstances and a little on how you choose to apply it. When it comes to sports fandom, emotional hedging can be a useful tool to avoid disappointment, or maybe you prefer projecting confidence to manifest a desired outcome. And if you’re a Phillies fan, you’ve perfected the art of oscillating wildly between the two over the course of a single game. You even have a handy meme with a meter that only ever points to one extreme or the other:

(Please excuse the mismatched needle sizes and logo alignment. These images are precious internet relics that have been downloaded, clumsily edited, re-uploaded, compressed, and decompressed hundreds, if not thousands, of times. The pixelation is earned like callouses on the hands of a skilled laborer.)

But the formula seems to assume that expectations are set and controlled by the person in search of a happy existence. The entire notion is upended when mathematical models based on historical outcomes become the source for baseline expectations. In this scenario, if your team is outperforming expectations, then you can enjoy the banked wins, but you do so in fear of the rainier days that surely lie somewhere in the team’s future forecast. Whereas if your team is underperforming expectations, things might feel dire, but there’s reason to believe sunnier days lie ahead. Read the rest of this entry »

As one-half of the majors’ most productive catching tandem, Carson Kelly doesn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, but like the Dodgers’ Will Smith, he’s been incredibly productive so far, particularly with runners in scoring position. Unlike Smith, he doesn’t have a lengthy track record of success; in parts of 10 major league seasons with five teams, Kelly has not only never made an All-Star team, he’s only played 100 games in a season twice, and finished with a 100 wRC+ or better just twice. But thanks to some changes to his swing mechanics over the past couple of seasons, he’s in the midst of a breakout campaign for the NL Central-leading Cubs.

The 30-year-old Kelly is hitting .290/.412/.589 with nine homers and a 179 wRC+ in 131 plate appearances. He’s started 28 of the Cubs’ 56 games behind the plate, while Miguel Amaya started 25 before landing on the injured list this past weekend due to an oblique strain, an injury that interrupted a promising start to the 26-year-old backstop’s season. Though Kelly homered after replacing Amaya in Saturday’s loss to the Reds, he was limited to a single late-inning cameo over the next three days due to an unspecified illness before returning to the lineup on Wednesday night. Instead of recalling 21-year-old prospect Moisés Ballesteros, who spent five games DHing for the Cubs earlier this month but whose defense needs more refinement, the Cubs brought up Reese McGuire from Triple-A Iowa to replace Amaya on the roster; he started all three games while Kelly was ailing, homering twice in his season debut against the Reds. All told, the trio of Cubs catchers has been great offensively:

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You can’t keep Pete Crow-Armstrong away from the baseball field. I mean that in the sense that he’s a passionate young star who loves the game and plays with his hair on fire all the time. But I also mean that in a more literal sense. The Cubs might need to devise a system for keeping Crow-Armstrong away from the baseball field. He has a problem.

The Cubs walked off the Rockies on Monday night. The score was 3-3. With one out and two on in the bottom of the 11th inning, rookie Matt Shaw stayed back and punched a Tyler Kinley slider into right field, scoring Jon Berti from second base. It was thrilling. (For the Cubs, anyway; for the Rockies, it was probably akin to the feeling you have when you go to bed with a tickle in your throat and you just know that it’s a really bad cold coming on even though there’s no tangible basis for that certainty, and then you do in fact wake up in the middle of the night with a terrible cold.) As you’d expect after a thrilling(-slash-miserable) walk-off hit, Shaw got mobbed by his teammates.

Well, he got mobbed by one teammate, anyway. There’s Shaw, moments after his big hit, engaged in an intimate leaping chest bump with Crow-Armstrong. I mean “intimate” in the sense that it seemed like a special moment, but I also mean it in the sense that it’s just the two of them all alone on the grass under the romantic Chicago skies, smiling at each other like there’s nobody else in the whole wide world. The rest of the Cubs are just out of frame, celebrating too. Read the rest of this entry »

Count me among the multitudes who have been borderline obsessed with the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong as a superstar this season. I’m sure he’ll reach a saturation point eventually where hardcore fans get tired of him — it happened to superhero movies, and bacon, and Patrick Mahomes — but we’re not there yet.

Every time I write about PCA, I revisit the central thesis: This is a player who’s good enough to get by on his glove even if he doesn’t hit a lick. But out of nowhere, he’s turned into a legitimate offensive threat. Great athletes who play with a little flair, a little panache, a little pizzaz, tend to be popular in general. The elite defensive center fielder who finds a way to contribute offensively is probably my favorite position player archetype; the more I compared PCA to Lorenzo Cain, Jackie Bradley Jr., Enrique Bradfield Jr., Carlos Gómez… the more I understood why I’d come to like him so much.

In fact, let’s take a moment to talk about Gómez, and his offensive breakout in the early 2010s. Read the rest of this entry »

Things did not go well for the Cubs’ Ryan Pressly on Tuesday night against the Giants at Wrigley Field. Chicago had clawed its way back from a fourth-inning, 5-2 deficit, capped by a two-run, ninth-inning rally that sent the game into extra innings. After an uneventful 10th, all hell broke loose in the 11th, as Pressly failed to retire any of the eight batters he faced. By the time the dust settled, nine runs had scored, and unlike the Cubs’ April 18 game against the Diamondbacks, where they answered 10 eighth-inning runs with six of their own on the bottom of the frame and won 13-11, this time they fell 14-5.

As you might expect, it took a bad break or two to blow the doors open in that 11th inning. Following a double by Heliot Ramos and an RBI single by Patrick Bailey, Brett Wisely laid down a sacrifice bunt toward the first base side of the mound. Pressly fielded the ball and made an awkward, backhanded flip to Carson Kelly, but the ball dribbled under the catcher’s glove. Ramos was safe at home and Wisely reached first, still with nobody out. Mike Yastrzemski walked to load the bases, and then Willy Adames was hit by a pitch to force in Bailey. On the replay, it looked like a wild pitch that had gotten by Kelly, which would have advanced the runners and scored the run nonetheless, but home plate umpire Bill Miller ruled the ball had grazed Adames. The call was upheld after the Cubs challenged it, adding another baserunner to the mix, and consecutive singles by Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, and Wilmer Flores brought in four more runs (two on Chapman’s hit). With the score already a lopsided 11-5, Cubs manager Craig Counsell mercifully gave Pressly the hook.

The onslaught didn’t stop. Reliever Caleb Thielbar entered and finally recorded the first out by striking out Christian Koss before serving up an RBI double to Ramos. Bailey added a sacrifice fly before David Villar, pinch-hitting for Wisely, struck out. The Cubs went down in order against Kyle Harrison in the bottom of the 11th, and that was that. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. For once, I don’t have a fistful of double plays to show you. I don’t even have that many great catches. The baseball I watched this week was disjointed and messy, the regular season at its finest. Making the easy plays tough? We’ve got that. Bringing in your lefty to face their righty slugger? Got that too. Doubles that weren’t? Collisions between out-of-position players? Yes and yes. So thanks Zach Lowe for the wonderful article format, and let’s get started.

1. Tell ‘Em, Wash
I mean, how hard could first base be? Incredibly hard, of course. The Red Sox and Rangers are both on to their respective Plan Bs at first base after Triston Casas ruptured his patellar tendon and Jake Burger got sent down to Triple-A. No big deal defensively, right? Each team plugged in a utility player — Romy Gonzalez for Boston and Josh Smith for Texas — and moved on with life. Look how easy first is:

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