Archive for Cubs

Untying the Tiebreaker Scenarios, One More Time

Brad Penner, Mark J. Rebilas, Troy Taormina, Chris Jones-Imagn Images

With one week to go in the regular season, the playoff field is nearly set in the National League, though it’s anything but settled in the American League, with two of the three division leaders — two different ones since I last checked in — ahead by just one game and those races spilling over into the battle for the third and final Wild Card spot. We’re not going to get any tiebreaker games due to the fun police and the playoff format change put into effect by the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, but it’s entirely possible a playoff spot — and perhaps even a division title — will be decided on the basis of MLB’s tiebreaker procedures.

Since the situation is simpler in the NL, I’ll start there. The Brewers (98-58) lead the Dodgers (96-60) in the race for the top seed, and own the tiebreaker there on the basis of a 4-3 season series advantage. According to our Playoff Odds, as of Monday at 9 AM, the Braves (92-64) have just a 0.9% chance of bypassing either Milwaukee or Los Angeles. The Brewers — who have a magic number of one to clinch a first-round bye — finish out with a visit to the Phillies (86-70) before coming home to face the Cardinals (76-80), while the Dodgers host the Padres (87-69) for three and then travel to the Giants (62-90), with the Braves hosting the Reds (72-84) and then visiting the Marlins (76-80).

The Padres have taken advantage of a soft spot in their schedule — series against the sub-.500 Nationals, Giants, Rockies, and Marlins, after taking two out of three from the Yankees — to win 13 out of their last 14 games. Not only did that push them past the Diamondbacks (now 82-74), whom they trailed by half a game before the start of the surge, but they’ve tied the Cubs (87-69) for the top NL Wild Card spot, with the Phillies a game behind them. The Phils have been phlailing lately, going 8-10 in September and failing to win a series since beating the Diamondbacks at the start of the month. Their slide gave the Braves enough room to clinch the NL East title on Sunday. Read the rest of this entry »


Player’s View: Is the Decline of Starter Innings Bad For Baseball?

Dan Hamilton and Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

It’s no secret that starting pitchers throw fewer innings than they once did. Not only have complete games become a rarity (there have only been 20 so far this season), it is all too common to see starters limited to just five frames. The proof is in the pudding. Going by 10-year increments, the average number of innings per start has dropped steadily, going from 6.53 in 1976 to 5.08 in the current campaign. Moreover, the number of outings with 100 or more pitches this year is just 510, a 560 pace. Turn the calendar back to 2016 and there were 1,737 such outings. A decade earlier, there were 2,095.

How do current major league starters feel about the collective decline in workloads? Comprehensive polling isn’t practical, but I did query nine starters — some older, some younger — to get their thoughts on the subject. Here is what they had to say. Read the rest of this entry »


Pete Crow-Armstrong Isn’t Slowing Down

David Banks-Imagn Images

The NL MVP race is over. Truthfully, it’s been over since the Dodgers announced that Shohei Ohtani was taking a break from pitching all the way back in July. Pete Crow-Armstrong had so thoroughly lapped the field by then that only a unicorn like Ohtani had a shot at some kind of narrative-based upset, and without the chance of him putting up Cy Young-caliber starts to go along with bruising slugging, that was that. Likewise, the Cubs haven’t really been in a playoff race since July; they’re a lock for one of the top two Wild Card spots, but they’re surely not catching the Brewers.

It’s natural for you to take your eye off the ball in a situation like this. How good is Crow-Armstrong? How good are the Cubs? Well, good enough that you don’t have to think about them again until October. If you’re a neutral fan, I wouldn’t blame you for filing away your view of team and player, tuning back in to your local nine, and resting assured that you already know who the best player in the league was this year, regardless of what transpired the rest of the way.

But while you were (potentially) looking away, Crow-Armstrong is still on a tear. He’s not just the best player in the majors this year; he’s also been the best player in the majors over the past month. Where last year he melted in the late-summer heat, this year he’s getting better as time passes. Not only that, the way he’s doing it has me revising my long-term outlook on him.

When Crow-Armstrong broke out in 2025, he had an obvious weakness. He simply never saw a pitch he didn’t think he could tattoo. That made him run hot and cold; he paired incredible runs of scalded contact with stretches where he couldn’t buy a hit. Early this year, he was alternating between swing-happy stretches and periods of extreme patience. As Jay Jaffe pointed out, that helped him get the ball in the air to the pull side more frequently, in addition to forcing pitchers to venture into the zone more often or give up free passes. Read the rest of this entry »


This Still Ain’t Team Entropy, but Both Leagues Have a Lot To Untie

David Richard, Nathan Ray Seebeck, David Richard and Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

With the passing of Labor Day, the 2026 regular season has less than three weeks remaining. While neither league’s playoff races are as turbulent as the AL Wild Card race appeared to be just a couple of weeks ago — to say nothing of the Before Times, when Major League Baseball used actual tiebreaker games instead of math to settle ties, and rooting for end-of-season chaos was a whole lot more fun — it’s time for a check-in to outline what’s at stake.

Right now, in four of the six division races — all but the NL Central and NL West, where the Brewers and Dodgers both have comfortable margins — the first-place team leads by four games or less. That said, the hill that the Phillies (81-64) have to climb to catch the Braves (85-60) is steeper than it appears, because Atlanta clinched the season series with a 5-4 win this past Sunday and owns a 7-3 advantage, with the two teams set to play their final three games starting on Friday at Truist Park. Thus, if the two teams finish the regular season tied, the Braves would be the division winner and the Phillies a Wild Card team. Philadelphia has to overtake Atlanta to claim the NL East flag, something our Playoff Odds suggest has just an 8.2% chance of happening. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: When It Comes to His Craft, Sal Stewart Lets His Bat Do the Talking

Sal Stewart is a frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year honors. A formidable presence in the middle of the Cincinnati Reds lineup, the 22-year-old corner infielder has bashed 31 home runs and put up a 121 wRC+. Moreover, he leads all MLB hitters with 106 RBIs. Per the team’s press notes, Ted Williams (144 in 1939) and Walt Dropo are the only rookies to lead the majors in RBIs since 1920.

Stewart’s ability to square up baseballs far exceeds his wordiness when discussing the art and science of hitting — at least that was the case when I talked to him prior to a recent game at Wrigley Field. Entertainingly demonstrative when interacting with teammates in the clubhouse prior to our conversation, he was far from expansive when responding to questions about his craft.

“I’m kind of always tinkering and trying to find what’s best,” Stewart replied when asked how he’s grown as a hitter since entering pro ball in 2022 out of a Miami high school. “But for the most part, I have the same swing I’ve had since I was 12 years old.”

The burgeoning star told me that he still has the same offseason hitting coaches who helped him hone his right-handed stroke in travel ball. As he explained, “I trust my people and stick with my people.” Ditto training methods. He doesn’t hit off of a Trajekt, preferring instead to follow his established routine of “doing some tee stuff, some flips. Drills that I know work for me, and prepare me for the game.”

His approach when he steps up to the plate? Read the rest of this entry »


Psst, Position Player Pitching Is Proliferating

Eric Canha-Imagn Images

On Sunday, Red Sox infielder Andruw Monasterio took the mound against the Yankees with one out in the eighth inning of a 10-1 game — one that had already sent a Red Sox broadcaster over the edge — and proceeded to allow six more runs. On Monday, Twins top prospect Walker Jenkins hit his first major league home run off a 37-mph eephus lob from Tigers utilityman Zach McKinstry, while the Cubs set a team record with nine homers in one game, the last three of them off Brewers first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Amid complaints on social media and sports talk radio calling for a ban to the practice, the reality is that managers are putting position players on mop-and-bucket duty more frequently than ever, enough to suggest it’s time to revise the rules limiting their usage.

Once upon a time, position players pitching was a rarity. The first 21 seasons of the Wild Card era (1995–2005) featured seasons where you could count such appearances on one hand; there was one in 2005 and none in ’06, and by the end of that stretch, it was still something that happened less than once a week throughout the majors. As a beat, it was a fun one to cover because of the novelty, particularly with pitch tracking allowing everyone to gawk at the low-velocity junk thrown under such circumstances. Did you know Todd Frazier had a knuckleball? How about that Willians Astudillo eephus? Eventually, however, the beat became less enjoyable as the practice proliferated to the point that Major League Baseball had to codify when teams could do it; while the occasions themselves remained appropriately light-hearted, the novelty had long worn off. Now, even with more restrictive rules governing their usage, the situation is worth revisiting.

The Monasterio and McKinstry appearances were garden variety affairs, with position players taking the mound in the eighth inning of road games where nobody would need to pitch the bottom of the ninth. Monasterio’s outing was Boston’s first such appearance this season, a sidelight to a game that included a controversial fifth-inning no-catch call of a Jazz Chisholm Jr. bloop by center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela and then an unprofessional tirade in the booth by WEEI broadcaster Will Flemming, who called Chisholm a “bush league player” who “plays the game the wrong way” after Chisholm walked and stole second and third base in the eighth inning of a 7-1 game. The steals, which were ordered by manager Aaron Boone, became moot after reliever Jovani Morán served up back-to-back home runs to Austin Wells and Paul Goldschmidt to run the score to 10-1, leading manager Chad Tracy to crank up the Monasterio. Read the rest of this entry »


Scouting Ketel Marte’s Rehab and Jackson Flora’s Pro Debut

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

On Thursday, I woke up to a text warning me that first pitch of the Diamondbacks-Giants Bridge League game had moved up to 10 AM local time – presumably due to the heat, our morning low on Thursday was 95 degrees and cranked up to 113 – and that a rehabbing Ketel Marte was in the lineup. The change in schedule meant I could spend an hour watching Ketel and Co., then slip over to the Rockies’ side of the Salt River Fields Complex to catch a second game. Rehabbers typically hit every inning, so I hoped to squeeze in three Marte at-bats before changing locations. Read the rest of this entry »


Scouting Notes on the Rehabbing Cubs and Diamondbacks Pitchers

Eric Longenhagen-FanGraphs

I had Tuesday’s Cubs-Diamondbacks Bridge League game circled on the calendar. Chicago’s big league squad is in town this week (for a series that has become spicy), and I thought this meant the organization’s recently drafted pitchers might throw in front of traveling Cubs brass who could see their new talent in the morning before heading to Chase Field for the second game of that series. “Bridge League,” for those unfamiliar, is a fairly informal, month-long slate of backfield games that take place at the spring training complexes between the end of the Arizona and Florida Complex League schedules and the end of the other minor seasons in September. It mostly exists to give newly drafted players a soft landing spot to start their pro careers.

But instead of a first glimpse at Cade Townsend or Carson Jasa, I ran into multiple, big-name rehabbers from both clubs: Justin Steele (who threw a live BP) and Ben Brown of the Cubs, and Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. Here is a rundown of my day and how those guys looked, as the two teams eagerly await reinforcements during their respective playoff pushes. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Giants Rookie Jonah Cox Took a Catcher Deep at Wrigley

Jonah Cox had never set foot in Wrigley Field prior to June 5th of this season. It turned out to be a day he won’t soon forget. Six games into his MLB career, the 25-year-old San Francisco Giants outfielder went 3-for-3 and left the yard for the first time at baseball’s highest level. In front of an announced crowd of 39,060, the visitors ran roughshod over the Chicago Cubs by a count of 18-3.

His initial impression of the Friendly Confines?

“It’s one of those stadiums you see in movies, like Rookie of the Year, so when you walk out there it’s like ‘Oh my gosh,’” the Colorado native told me earlier this week. “Knowing the history and the fanbase, it’s just a really cool place to play.”

“Oh man, the ball was flying,” Cox went on to say of the contest, which featured eight home runs, seven of them by the Giants, “It was a ton of fun watching guys swing and have so much success. Then I got the call to come in and face Hoby Milner, the lefty [in the sixth inning with the Giants leading 9-0]. I was excited to get in there, and one thing led to another.”

Did it ever. The rookie recorded his second hit of the game — and just his third in the majors — in that same inning, which ended with the Giants on top 16-0. Then came the top of the ninth. With Cubs catcher Carson Kelly toeing the rubber, Cox cleared the ivy. Read the rest of this entry »


Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Huge Step Forward

Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

If the 2026 regular season finished today, not only would a sub-.500 team qualify for the playoffs, but Shohei Ohtani’s run of three straight Most Valuable Player awards — the last two in the National League, since signing with the Dodgers — would probably end. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been absolutely on fire since late May, as substantial adjustments to his mechanics and approach have helped his offense catch up to his already-elite defense. The 24-year-old center fielder has overtaken Ohtani on the WAR leaderboard at a time when the two-way superstar has been shut down from pitching, and this week, he put himself in the history books in a few different ways.

On Monday night at Wrigley Field, Crow-Armstrong put on a particularly entertaining show against the White Sox, going 4-for-5 with a pair of home runs, a stolen base, two runs scored, and three runs batted in. Batting leadoff for the Cubs, he began the home half of the first inning by homering on Luis Castillo’s first pitch of the evening, a four-seamer on the inner edge of the plate. He singled off Castillo in the second, and after taking strike three looking on a sinker in the fourth, he drew a walk against reliever Tyler Schweitzer in the sixth, doubled off Trevor Richards in the eighth, then capped his night with a walk-off two-run homer off a hanging slider from Hagen Smith in the 10th. Read the rest of this entry »