At last we reach the end of my annual series spotlighting the weakest positions on contending clubs. While still focusing upon teams that meet that loose definition of contenders (Playoff Odds of at least 10% when this series began), I’ve also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included it here because the team’s performance is worth a look.

At the other positions in this series, I have used 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — as my cutoff, but for the designated hitters, I’ve limited the list to the teams below zero, both to keep the length manageable and to account for the general spread of value. In the fifth full season of the universal DH, 0.2 WAR represents the current median, with 11 teams below zero, 12 between zero and 1.0, and just seven with 1.0 or more, with only five reaching 2.0. DHs as a group have hit .244/.325/.422 for a 106 wRC+ this season, down four points from last year’s final mark, the highest since the adoption of the universal DH.

It does appear that an increasing number of teams are investing more playing time in a single DH. From 2022 (the first full-length season with the universal DH) to ’25, the number of players reaching 450 plate appearances in the DH role increased from three to four to seven to nine; this year, they’re on pace for nine, as well. That said, all but one of the teams on this list are the ones that haven’t found that special someone to take the lion’s share of the plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Draft Weekend everyone! The draft broadcast begins at 1 p.m. ET today, with the first four rounds scheduled for Day 1. Then, tomorrow, the draft resumes at 11:30 a.m. ET for rounds 5-20.

As always, FanGraphs has you covered with everything you need to know before, during, and after the draft. Eric Longenhagen, Brendan Gawlowski, Michael Baumann, and Meg Rowley are in Philadelphia providing coverage throughout the weekend. You can find all of our draft coverage here, or by using the navigation widget at the top of our homepage and in our draft pieces. Eric and Brendan’s updated draft rankings are available on The Board, where you’ll also find players’ scouting reports and tool grades. You can read Eric’s draft preview here, and his first mock draft here. Provided he has enough new information to merit one, his second mock draft will run today before the first round, so be on the lookout for that, too. Meanwhile, Michael wrote three excellent draft features, which you can read here, here, and here. Also, be sure to join our Day 1 draft chat, where the FanGraphs crew will be answering your questions and providing updates and analysis beginning at 1 p.m ET.

That’s the last you’ll read about the draft in this mailbag. Instead, we’ll be answering your questions about Pete Crow-Armstrong, Aaron Ashby’s propensity for wins, and games with the highest rates of true outcomes for one team. Plus, I’ll provide the answers to last week’s trivia questions about baseball stats featuring the number 250. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Hello. While on paternity leave, I kept a journal about baseball and my daughter, who is not named Derek Jr., but who will henceforth be referred to as Derek Jr. You can read all of the entries here.

May 17
Yesterday, when Derek Jr. was fussy, my wife played a Black Eyes Peas song on her phone and bounced our daughter on a yoga ball. Today it became clear that she considered this to be a successful experiment and that it will be a thing in our household going forward. The baby is fussy. Let’s bounce her to that Black Eyed Peas song. On repeat. Day after day. The Black Eyed Peas playing in our home. This was not a path I could have foreseen. This is not a path I would have chosen. This already seems like it will not be a path I can escape.

While I’m feeding Derek Jr. in the evening, I catch the ninth and 10th innings of the Cubs and White Sox. The 10th inning is one of the most exciting I’ve seen in a while. The Cubs start with Pete Crow-Armstrong as the zombie runner, which already makes it must-see TV. The White Sox broadcast is apparently having some sort of kids’ day celebration, and all of the graphics have a distinctly Backyard Baseball feel to them. If you’ve never played the Backyard Sports games, then this will go right over your head, but as I watch, a realization washes over me: The speedy, lanky, left-handed, red-haired Pete-Crow Armstrong is Major League Baseball’s version of the speedy, lanky, left-handed, red-haired Pete Wheeler. I mean, come on:

While he’s never been a true liability on the infield, Max Muncy has generally been a player whose defensive contributions took a back seat to his offense. The Dodgers have long counted on Muncy’s combination of power and plate discipline to outweigh his shortcomings in the field while bouncing him from first base to second to third depending on their roster’s current needs. That handling has paid off handsomely, as he’s been a vital contributor to four pennant winners and three World Series champions since being plucked off the scrap heap in April 2017. This year, however, Muncy has really flashed the leather at third base, showing the best range of his career. He leads all third basemen in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, while tying for second in Defensive Runs Saved.

According to Statcast, Muncy was 11 runs below average at third base in 3,817 innings from 2018–25, roughly the equivalent of four runs below average per full season of play; he was four below average by that measure in just 801.1 innings last year. This year, he’s already six runs above average in 621 innings. According to Statcast’s Outs Above Average, he’s gone from being the majors’ worst qualifier on plays coming in (-9) to tying for second-best (4). DRS has generally been more charitable in its assessment of his defense; he was 16 runs above average at third from 2018–25, and is eight above average this season.

Muncy is just one of several Dodgers whose defensive play has helped his team top the rankings in my annual midseason defensive breakdown, with shortstop Mookie Betts, center fielder Andy Pages, second baseman Alex Freeland, and catcher Will Smith also making major contributions to that placement. I’ll explain the methodology below, but first, a bit more about the 35-year-old slugger, who on Monday night hit a towering solo homer in the first Dodgers-Athletics matchup to feature both Max Muncys, who share the same birthday (August 25) and drafting team (Oakland). Read the rest of this entry »

Through their ups and downs this season — a pair of 10-game winning streaks here, a 10-game losing streak there — the one constant for the Cubs has been injuries to their starting pitchers. On that front, this week brought a flurry of bad news. Not only did both Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown land on the injured list on Wednesday, bringing their current total of sidelined starters to six, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announced that Justin Steele, who suffered a setback in late April while rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery, isn’t likely to rejoin the rotation this season. In need of warm bodies to provide some innings, the team swung a trade with the Mets to acquire lefty David Peterson, a 2025 All-Star who has been getting lit up this year, but if the Cubs aspire to maintain their hold on a playoff spot, they’ll need significantly more help ahead of the August 3 trade deadline.

At this writing, seven of the 11 pitchers who have made at least one start for the team this season — including openers — have landed on the IL at least once, and that count doesn’t even include Steele. With Wednesday’s moves, five of the six pitchers forecast to throw the most innings for the team in our preseason Positional Power Rankings were out hurt, though Thursday’s scheduled activation of Opening Day starter Matthew Boyd from his second IL stint reduces that count. The Cubs rotation ranked 20th in projected WAR in our PPR, with a projected 4.03 ERA and a 4.15 FIP, but even that level of performance has been unattainable. Currently, Chicago is 26th in starting pitcher WAR (2.9), with a combined 4.64 ERA and a 4.79 FIP, and while the team’s use of the occasional opener fuzzes up those stats a bit, the bullpen (including bulk pitchers) has netted -0.3 WAR, with a 3.82 ERA and a 4.62 FIP. Don’t even ask about ready help from the minors, as the organization’s top upper-level pitching prospects — Jaxon Wiggins, Brody McCullough, Brandon Birdsell, Connor Noland — either are currently hurt or have been ineffective. It’s a bleak situation everywhere you look, at least at the moment. Read the rest of this entry »

“You can’t win the pennant in the first month of the season, but you can lose it.” We’ve heard that axiom a million times, but by God the Chicago Cubs were out to prove it wrong. By close of business on May 8, the Cubbies were 27-12, having just wrapped up their second discrete 10-game winning streak of the season.

Our preseason playoff odds had the Cubs, Pirates, and Brewers in a close three-way fight for the NL Central, all with odds between 24.3% and 35.6%. The Reds and Cardinals were in the single digits, but by no means without hope. Chicago’s odds of winning the division peaked on May 7 at 63.4% — a mighty statement in a division expected to be competitive.

But shouldn’t it have been higher? The Braves got off to just as hot a start, and their odds for winning the division have been in the 80s since the last week of April. The Yankees’ division-winning odds peaked around the same time as Chicago’s, but about 20 points higher. Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Stanley was C.J. Nitkowsk’s biggest nemesis. In seven career plate appearances versus the now-Atlanta Braves broadcaster, Stanley homered twice, hammered a double, and walked four times. That added up to a 4.333 OPS. Of the 592 batters Nitkowski faced over 10 big-league seasons, no one was more injurious to his stat sheet.

Somewhat surprisingly, the pair of gophers — one at Tiger Stadium in 1996, the other at Fenway Park in 2000 — aren’t what the southpaw most remembers about his matchups with the slugging catcher/first baseman. What stands out is the two-bagger.

“I have a story about Mike Stanley,” explained Nitkowski, who made 336 MLB appearances, 213 of them with Detroit, while pitching for eight teams from 1995-2005. “As a kid who grew up in New York and was a Yankees fan, I always knew who he was. He was a Yankee when I was in high school. When I got drafted and went down to Orlando for my first spring training [with the Cincinnati Reds in 1995] — I went early to get out of the cold — I was working out with Chad Mottola, who is now the hitting coach for the Rays. He was my first roommate in professional baseball.

“Chad lived down there,” continued Nitkowski. “Mike Stanley happened to live in the same neighborhood, and they worked out together once in awhile, so I met him. I was 21 or 22 years old, so it was a big deal. You meet a big-leaguer and are trying to play it cool — you’re a professional now — but it was Mike Stanley. That’s cool. I thought it was kind of a big deal. I got to know him a little bit.”

Fast forward to August 12, 2000. Stanley was playing for the Oakland Athletics, while Nitkowski was pitching in relief for the Tigers. A request was made in the dugout during the sixth inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Data Scientist, Innovation – Baseball Analytics

DEPARTMENT: R&D Baseball Operations
ORGANIZATION: Chicago Cubs
REPORTS TO: Assistant Director, Baseball Analytics
LOCATION: Chicago, IL
FLSA STATUS: Exempt
COMPENSATION: $80,000 – $150,000 USD

BEING PART OF THE TEAM
Our business is a team sport that began on a field with baseballs and bats and has evolved into one of the most recognizable brands in sports and entertainment through Cubs baseball and live events. Our success is driven by our people, who work to create and inspire change in an engaging, collaborative and inclusive environment. As a team, we continue to build a culture on and off the field that delivers unforgettable experiences for one another, our fans and community. In support of that effort, we expect associates to work primarily in our office. Are you ready to be part of it?

OUR STORY
The Chicago Cubs franchise, a charter member of Major League Baseball’s National League since 1876, has won the National League pennant 17 times and was the first team to win back-to-back World Series titles in the 1907 and 1908 seasons. In 2016, the Chicago Cubs made history again when the team won its first World Series in 108 years, ending the longest championship drought in North American sports. Known for its ivy-covered outfield walls, hand-operated scoreboard and famous Marquee, iconic Wrigley Field has been the home of the Chicago Cubs since 1916 and is the second oldest ballpark in Major League Baseball. In 2009, the Ricketts family assumed ownership of the Chicago Cubs and established three main goals for the organization: Win the World Series, Preserve and Improve Wrigley Field, and Be a Good Neighbor.

HOW YOU’LL CONTRIBUTE
The Chicago Cubs are seeking a Data Scientist, Innovation within Baseball Analytics focused on advancing analytics, modeling, and applied research across Baseball Operations. This role will focus on developing cutting-edge machine learning models, exploring novel analytical approaches, and translating complex baseball data into actionable insights.

This position emphasizes innovation in modeling, experimentation, and analytical rigor. The ideal candidate thrives in research-driven environments, pushing the boundaries of predictive modeling, simulation, and multimodal data analysis to improve player evaluation, player development, and performance analysis.

THE DAY-TO-DAY:

Machine Learning & Advanced Modeling

• Develop and evaluate machine learning and statistical models for player evaluation and performance analysis
• Design and implement time-series, probabilistic, and simulation-based models
• Apply modern deep learning techniques (e.g., attention models, multimodal learning)
• Explore and apply generative modeling approaches beyond LLMs

Analytics Innovation

• Conduct research into new modeling techniques and analytical frameworks
• Prototype and experiment with novel approaches to improve predictive performance
• Translate complex datasets (tracking, video, sensor data) into structured insights

Research & Thought Leadership

• Stay current with advancements in AI, machine learning, and sports analytics
• Serve as a subject matter expert on modeling approaches and statistical methods
• Partner with stakeholders to identify high-impact analytical opportunities

WHAT YOU’LL BRING:

• Strong experience with machine learning frameworks (PyTorch, TensorFlow, etc.)
• Deep understanding of statistical modeling and data science workflows
• Experience working with complex and high-dimensional datasets
• Proficiency in Python, SQL, and version control

WHAT SETS YOU APART:

• 5+ years in machine learning, data science, or applied research
• Experience with multimodal data (video, tracking, sensor data)
• Background in sports analytics, preferably baseball
• Experience with simulation or probabilistic modeling frameworks

TOTAL REWARDS:

• On-site parking
• Transit benefits
• Paid time off: Personal, Sick, Vacation Time, Office Holidays & Winter Break
• Flexible work arrangement 
• Casual work attire environment 
• Complimentary Meal & beverage plan
• Cubs home game & spring training game ticket allotment
• Access to campus wide Wrigley Field events & pre-sales
• 401K Plan Employee Contribution & Employer Match  
• Benefit Plans: Medical, Dental, Vision & Life Insurance 
• Health & Wellness engagement & programming
• Variety of associate special events, volunteer opportunities and partnership discounts
• Tuition Reimbursement
• Free access to EV charging stations

* This job posting includes the anticipated compensation, which reflects the hourly rate or salary range the Chicago Cubs and its affiliates are considering for this role in the specified location(s) as of the posting date. Where anticipated compensation is a salary range, the actual base salary offered within that range will be reflective of the candidate’s skills and experience.

The Chicago Cubs and its affiliates embrace diversity and are committed to building a team that represents all communities. We hold ourselves accountable to include new and different voices in our organization. Everyone is welcome here, and we celebrate what makes each of us unique.

Response Expectations:
Due to the overwhelming number of applications we receive, we unfortunately may not be able to respond in person to each applicant. However, we can assure you that you will receive an email confirmation when you apply as well as additional email notifications whether you are selected to move forward for the position or not. Please note, we keep all resumes on file and will contact you should we wish to schedule an interview with you.

The Chicago Cubs and its affiliates are an Equal Opportunity Employer committed to inclusion and employing a diverse workforce. All applicants will receive consideration without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, veteran status, disability, or other legally protected characteristics.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Chicago Cubs.

It used to be said that old guys couldn’t stick at shortstop.

“You know, it’s kind of like a running back after 30 [years old],” then-Rangers manager Chris Woodward said back in 2020, marveling at the defensive longevity of Elvis Andrus. “Shortstops after 30? There’s not too many of them.”

As of late, though, something has changed. Here is a plot showing the number of primary shortstops qualifying for the batting title in their age-30 season or older. In 2026, there are nine pacing to qualify, almost touching the previous peak in 2014: Read the rest of this entry »

Kai-Wei Teng had a limited repertoire when he signed with the Minnesota Twins out of Taiwan in 2017. The right-hander from Taichung possessed just a fastball and a curveball. A lot has changed since that time. Now 27 years old and pitching for the Houston Astros, Teng attacks hitters with a five-pitch mix that includes a sweeper that is not only hard to hit, it is no fun to be on the receiving end of in catch-play.

“It’s insanely good,” Spencer Arrighetti told me last weekend at Fenway Park. “I throw a sweeper. Lance [McCullers] throws a sweeper. We have a couple of other guys who toy around with it. But Teng’s is incredible. Truly. I played catch with him, and it looks like a fastball for 48 feet, then takes a 90-degree left turn. Not all sweepers are created equal. Some of them are a little loopier and bigger, but his is 85 mph. I mean, it’s gross. It really is a great pitch.”

The numbers back that up. Teng has relied on his most-used offering 36.3% of the time this season to the tune of a .118 BAA, a .118 SLG, and a 27.9% whiff rate. His other numbers are impressive, as well. Over 14 appearances, Teng has a 2.35 ERA, a 3.83 FIP, and a 24.7% strikeout rate over 23 innings.

I asked Teng for the story behind his best weapon. Read the rest of this entry »