Billy Wagner was the club’s closer when Craig Kimbrel joined the Atlanta Braves in 2010. Thirty-nine years old by season’s end, Wagner logged the last 37 of his 422 career saves, and he was as dominant as ever while doing so. Over 69-and-a-third innings, the left-hander fanned 104 batters while allowing just 38 hits.

Kimbrel, who was just 21 years old when he debuted that May, was every bit as overpowering. In 21 appearances comprising 20-and-two-thirds innings, the rookie right-hander fanned 40 batters while allowing just nine hits. Along the way, he recorded the first of what is now 395 saves.

I’ve had a Hall of Fame vote for three years, and in each of them I’ve put a checkmark next to Wagner’s name. This coming winter, I plan to do so again in what will be his penultimate year on the ballot (assuming he doesn’t get voted in; Wagner received 68% of support in his last go-round).

Kimbrel will soon celebrate his 35th birthday, and while the end of his career is fast approaching, he’s still pitching. Will he likewise be getting my vote once his name appears on the ballot? And what about Kenley Jansen? Still going strong at age 35, he’s also got 395 saves, tying him with Kimbrel for seventh on the all-time list, directly behind Wagner.

Let’s compare some of their numbers:

Wagner: 422 saves, WPA 28.40, 187 ERA+, 2.73 FIP, 6.0 H/9, 11.9 K/9.
Kimbrel: 395 saves, WPA 22.99, 174 ERA+, 2.38 FIP, 5.2 H/9, 14.3 K/9.
Jansen: 395 saves, WPA 24.72, 161 ERA+, 2.44 FIP, 5.8 H/9. 13.0 K/9. Read the rest of this entry »

If there’s one thing I remember the Cubs of recent vintage for, it’s winning the curse-breaking World Series in 2016. What, you were expecting something else? But if there are *two* things I remember the Cubs of recent vintage for, the second one is failing to sign their marquee players to contract extensions. Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo: all four felt like candidates for a contract extension that made them a lifetime Cub, with a jersey retirement ceremony and fawning coverage from national media for their sparkling career.

Each of those four plays for another team now. The Cubs never turned that dynamic core into a second championship, or even a second World Series appearance. For a team that had dynastic aspirations, it’s a strange look. To the Cubs’ credit, it’s also a look they seem intent on changing. After signing Nico Hoerner to a three-year extension, they took care of another core player, agreeing to a three-year extension with Ian Happ worth $61 million, as Bleacher Nation’s Michael Cerami first reported.

Happ represents a bridge between the 2016 squad that has now mostly departed and the modern-day Cubs team. He debuted in 2017, and while he spent most of ’19 in the minors, he’s otherwise been a fixture in the Chicago lineup ever since. He’s also been a fixture in the field, though not always in the same place. In 2022, however, he settled into an everyday left field role and put up his best season as a professional.

A quick look at Happ’s statline might leave you wanting. He doesn’t hit a ton of home runs or get on base at an unbelievable clip. He doesn’t have a shockingly low strikeout rate for modern baseball. He simply does everything well, with no real holes in his game other than a slightly elevated strikeout rate, and that adds up to solid overall performance even without anything that will blow you away. Here, take a look at it in percentile form, as compared to all qualified hitters:

The funny thing about those numbers is that Happ’s game doesn’t feel middle-of-the-road at all. He’s capable of enormous top-end power but until 2022 had paired that intermittent thump with plenty of empty swings. His career swinging-strike rate is roughly 14%; he shaved that to 11.8%, and the hits flowed like wine. That’s how you can post your lowest career ISO and beat your career batting line anyway. Read the rest of this entry »

Three Sundays ago, the answer to this column’s weekly quiz was Carlos Santana. The question was, “Which player has appeared in the most regular-season games over the past 10 seasons?” and the now-Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman had played in 1,440 — 13 more than Paul Goldschmidt and 40 more than Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo.

Santana professed not to be aware of the distinction when I mentioned it to him earlier this week. He did seem pleased to hear it, and “humbly prideful” might be the best way to describe his reaction.

“I prepare,” said Santana, who celebrated his 37th birthday yesterday. “I prepare my body. I prepare mentally. I also try to enjoy the game every day. That’s why I can play a lot. The game is my passion. This is my 14th year and I want to play two more. Or maybe three more. Whatever God tells me, and what my body says I can do.”

Count Andrew McCutchen among those who are impressed by his teammate’s reliability and durability over the years.

“It’s really good, to be honest,” said McCutchen, who was likewise unaware of Santana’s distinction. “To be able to do it how he’s done it — he’s in [the lineup] more times than not —shows that he’s stayed healthy, which is a key to doing that. You have to be good enough to do it, too. You’ve got a whole lot of variables to be able to do what he’s done.” Read the rest of this entry »

The ribbon has been cut on the 2023 season and I wanted to push a few prospect updates live to The Board, including a few tweaks to the Top 100 list. This update also includes publication of scouting reports such that every rookie currently on an active roster now has a current record on The Board, and a few additions the farm systems I’ve already audited during this cycle based on things I saw during spring training.

Let’s start with injury-related updates to the Top 100. Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter has a partially torn UCL and is approaching the end of his four-week shutdown period. Rule of thumb: Among a similarly talented group of players, you’d most want to have the healthy guys. Painter slides from fifth overall to 12th, right behind newly minted big leaguers Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker, who are comparably talented, healthy, and making a big league impact right now. This is just a cosmetic change to the list; Painter’s evaluation hasn’t changed. If it turns out he needs Tommy John, whether or not I slide him any further will depend on its timing. If rest doesn’t work and his surgery is timed such that he also misses all of 2024, that’s the worst case scenario for Painter and the Phillies. We know for sure that Nationals pitching prospect Cade Cavalli needs Tommy John, so in a similar fashion he falls within the 50 FV player tier, sliding from 63rd overall to 99th, right next to Mason Miller of the A’s, with whom he now shares injury-related relief risk.

Tigers prospect Jackson Jobe, the third overall pick in 2021, is going to miss three to six months due to lumbar spine inflammation. This injury is more novel than a TJ, and Jobe isn’t exactly coming off a great 2022. Unfortunately, this situation merits a more meaningful shift, but I still want to reflect the upside of a healthy Jobe, so he downshifts to the 45+ FV tier, where the most talented of the young high-variance prospects reside. Assuming he comes back late this season, he’ll be one of the higher-priority evaluations in the minors. Read the rest of this entry »

Nico Hoerner is a mix of old school and new school when it comes to hitting. He’s also a mix of contact and emerging gap-to-gap power. Drafted 24th overall by the Chicago Cubs out of Stanford University in 2018, the 25-year-old second baseman is coming off a season where he slashed .281/.327/.410 with 10 home runs and a 106 wRC+. Possessing potential that easily exceeds his to-date performance, he projects as a cornerstone in the Cubs’ lineup for years to come.

Hoerner discussed his continuing evolution as a hitter, including how he balances an appreciation of metrics and a keep-it-simple approach, following a recent spring training game in Mesa, Arizona.

———

David Laurila: How have you evolved as a hitter since coming to pro ball? Are you mostly the same guy?

Nico Hoerner: “For the most part, I don’t think guys really change that much. The guys that improve a lot are often doubling down on their strengths. They’re learning what they do best and are more consistent with that. I’ve definitely made improvements — there are things that have changed over the years — but I think my foundation is pretty similar.”

Laurila: I recall reading that you made a swing adjustment shortly after you signed, the goal being to hit more balls in the air. Is that accurate?

Hoerner: “I’ve never wanted to hit a ground ball in my life, to be honest with you. A lot of it comes from the pitches you swing at, how your body is moving, and learning your own strengths.”


Laurila: That said, was there an actual adjustment?

Hoerner: “Yeah. I think what you swing at is going to be the biggest factor in the balls that you put in play. I’m looking to hit the ball hard, hit high line drives as much as I can, and swing at pitches in the middle of the plate. Over time, with more at-bats, more experience, that really comes about.” Read the rest of this entry »

David Ross was 38 years old and still strapping on the tools of ignorance when he was featured here at FanGraphs in February 2016. The title of the piece was David Ross: Future Big League Manager, and as many in the industry had suggested it would, that supposition soon came to fruition. The longtime catcher is currently embarking on what will be his fourth season at the helm of the Chicago Cubs. I recently asked Ross how he approaches the job philosophically now that he’s firmly in the trenches.

“My style — the way I approach being a manager — is leadership and direction, but I’m also still a player at heart,” Ross told me. “I understand what these guys are going through, competing for jobs and different roles. Communicating through that as a former player, someone who experienced it, I can relate to them. I try to keep a player’s mindset as part of my decision-making.”

Jed Hoyer was the club’s General Manager when the Cubs hired Ross following the 2019 season. I asked the now President of Baseball Operations about the process that informed that decision. Read the rest of this entry »

In April 2016, a 23-year-old part-time plumber from Oklahoma showed up in Detroit, learned a changeup, and immediately became one of the best pitchers in the American League. In the previous two seasons, the Tigers had lost David Price, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello, and were in dire need of a no. 2 starter.

Michael Fulmer was that good, winning AL Rookie of the Year and making the All-Star team in 2017, before injuries — shoulder bursitis, a torn meniscus, and a series of escalating elbow injuries that culminated in Tommy John surgery — intervened. The torn UCL cost him all of 2019 and led into a 2020 season he would’ve been better off missing as well: 10 starts, just 27 2/3 innings pitched, and more earned runs allowed (27) than strikeouts (20).

Three years later, he’s preparing for his first season as a Chicago Cub. He turned 30 this week, and the tuft of black hair that used to stick out from under his cap is gone, as Fulmer’s opted for a Price-like shaved head-and-beard look. And rather than a potential ace, he’s now a potential closer. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the point in the offseason when it’s time for one of my favorite/most hated preseason traditions: my attempt to predict breakouts and busts. Since any breakouts or busts beyond what a projection system suggests are naturally going to be low-probability outcomes, there’s a high probability of me looking pretty silly — something writers try to avoid. Let’s start by looking back at how smart I was last year…or how foolish:

First, the bad news. Kelenic and Adell were both just awful, and I would definitely call 2022 a giant miss for both players as they enter their post-prospect period. I suspect there’s more hope to still be had for Kelenic than Adell, but I wouldn’t exactly call myself prescient about either. Kepler’s breakout didn’t happen at all, and his power all but disappeared. Anderson I’ll call an incomplete because of injury, and while Higashioka did match his entire previous career in WAR, that was largely due to defense, which I can hardly claim credit for predicting. Hiura did hit far better than he had recently, but he also didn’t exactly get a ton of playing time with the Brewers, who appeared to have lost interest in him. There were a few triumphs, however: Kwan and Lux both had excellent seasons, especially the former. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Kenta Maeda pitching well despite PitchCom giving away his signs, spring training injuries (5:26), the upsides and downsides of pitchers beginning to call their own pitches with PitchCom (9:03), and the reasons why hitters collectively seem to swing more often than they should (20:18). Then they continue (and pass the halfway point of) their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Los Angeles Dodgers (40:01) with Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, and the Chicago Cubs (1:19:32) with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, plus a Past Blast from 1976 (2:07:56).

Audio intro: Faye, “Swing State”
Audio interstitial 1: Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, “Requiem K. 626 – Lux Aeterna”
Audio interstitial 2: Andy Fairweather Low, “Halfway to Everything”
Audio outro: Lucy Dacus, “Triple Dog Dare”

Link to ESPN on Maeda
Link to Turner-Hernández video
Link to EW shart discussion
Link to Rob Arthur on sign-stealing
Link to article on training w/o games
Link to Greinke calling own pitches
Link to Maddux calling own pitches
Link to old EW on calling own pitches
Link to Scherzer on PitchCom legality
Link to ESPN on pitchers calling pitches
Link to article on Padres pitch calls
Link to article on Burnes pitch calls
Link to article on Giants pitch calls
Link to tweet about Ohtani pitch calls
Link to article on Cole pitch calls
Link to article on Severino pitch calls
Link to video of Scherzer pitch calls
Link to hitter run values on swings
Link to Tom Tango thread on swings
Link to Devan Fink on swings
Link to Eno Sarris on swings
Link to Swing decision Run Value
Link to Vargas not swinging
Link to Tango on approaches by count
Link to Tango on sliders
Link to Tom Verducci on sliders
Link to Rob on playing deeper
Link to Rob on BABIP/defense
Link to Russell on OBP > BA
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to FG payroll breakdown
Link to Dodgers offseason tracker
Link to Dodgers depth chart
Link to Ben Clemens on the Dodgers
Link to Fabian on Syndergaard
Link to article on Heyward’s swing
Link to Fabian’s spring preview
Link to Dodgers first-round picks
Link to Fabian’s author archive
Link to Cubs offseason tracker
Link to Cubs depth chart
Link to EW preview series wiki
Link to 2019 Pitch Lab piece
Link to 2022 Pitch Lab piece
Link to Sahadev on Hendricks
Link to Sahadev on Ricketts
Link to Sahadev on Bellinger
Link to Sahadev on Madrigal
Link to Sahadev on Taillon
Link to Sahadev on sweepers
Link to EW Bellinger roundtable
Link to Woodward on back-picks
Link to Sahadev’s spring preview
Link to Sahadev’s author archive
Link to 1976 article source
Link to HoF site on the shorts
Link to Paul Lukas on the shorts
Link to Chris Creamer on the shorts
Link to Costanza uniforms video
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to MLBTR on Painter
Link to NPB triple-digit uniform
Link to CPBL no. 999
Link to triple-digit ump uniforms
Link to Spaceman uni source
Link to Lee wearing 337

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The offseason is beginning to wrap up, but there are still plenty of names still available to help boost the fringes of teams’ rosters, especially in depth relievers. Last week, Michael Fulmer became the latest of these signings, inking a one-year deal with the Cubs.

The bulk of Fulmer’s big league career has been spent in Detroit, where he won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2016. With a 3.06 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 159 innings, he looked to be the future ace of a Tigers rotation that had lost Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer a couple years earlier and would lose Justin Verlander the next season. But after two more seasons where he performed around league average and a 2019 campaign completely lost to Tommy John surgery, Fulmer went through a catastrophic 2020, with an ERA near nine and less than three innings per start. It seemed like his time as a productive big leaguer was over, and it was — as a starter. But he’s performed quite well over the past two years in the bullpen, posting career bests in ERA and strikeouts.

While Fulmer had above-average seasons as a starter, he had neither big-time swing-and-miss stuff nor pinpoint command, succeeding despite pedestrian numbers in the strikeout and walk departments. Instead, his best years were characterized by a solid ability to suppress hard contact and home runs, possibly aided by his cavernous home ballpark. He throws two fastball variants but has shown a slight preference for the sinker, which has allowed him to run a groundball rate that’s consistently a few points above the league average. Read the rest of this entry »