2024 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

Are the Cubs back to their mid-2010s form? That’s a bit of a stretch, but these Cubs showed they have a live pulse, not falling out of playoff contention until the final week of the 2023 season. Cody Bellinger, one of the reasons the offense was so potent (third in the National League in runs scored), turned out to be one of the best pillow-contract signings of all time. Perhaps a little too good, as it was enough for Bellinger to decline his side of a $25 million mutual option for 2024. The Cubs could still sign Bellinger, but even if they do, it’s not a great bet they’ll get the same production as last year. ZiPS is a bit more optimistic than Steamer, but it still projects a returning Bellinger to “give back” some of his contact and a significant chunk of his power.

Still, losing that offense hurts. The Cubs haven’t directly replaced it, but they’ve at least avoided any gaping holes. If the season started today, you’d probably see a lot of Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, and while ZiPS doesn’t project him to match Bellinger’s output, it’s a respectable projection that cushions the blow of a Bellinger loss. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner combine to form one of the best middle infields in baseball — and a surprisingly underrated one. ZiPS is also surprisingly bullish on third base, regardless of whatever combination of Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Michael Busch end up playing there.

First base was a tricky spot, and I’ve gotten the distinct impression that the Cubs aren’t particularly wedded to the idea of just sticking Matt Mervis there for 140 games. I expect he’ll get his chances, but in a more complementary role that shields him from lefties as much as possible. The late trade for Busch lends credence to the notion that they didn’t feel Mervilous (sorry) about their situation at the cold corner, as do the rumors of them exploring first base options like Rhys Hoskins.

ZiPS doesn’t see any offensive prospects roaring to make a big impact this year. The computer likes Kevin Alcántara over the long haul, projecting a 25-WAR career, but it doesn’t see him breaking through and earning much of that in 2024. ZiPS is less into James Triantos, but he’s also young and the long-term error bars in the projections are massive.

Pitchers

This section looks a lot sunnier than it did last week! Shōta Imanaga is my favorite signing of this offseason and I think it’s probably the computer’s favorite as well (ZiPS utilizes DeltaGraphs stats for NPB players). I suspect some teams are going to kick themselves that the Cubs got Imanaga this cheaply — and if my suspicion is wrong, I’m sure someone will remind me in a year or two! ZiPS is projecting a skosh of regression from Justin Steele, but some of that is simply the realities of projecting pitchers; both Imanaga and Steele fall just out of the top 10 in NL starter projections, but with inning counts that are a little behind the league’s elite.

Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks both project as useful, but they’re hardly forecast as significant pluses. I feel like the Cubs must still be planning on an addition to the rotation. I’m not sure that means Jordan Montgomery, who I expect is going to get a pretty healthy contract, but unlike with the position players, there are still some interesting pitchers out there.

The bullpen projects as very middle-of-the-road in 2024. Steamer’s more positive, with the bigger differences being that ZiPS is giving a little more side-eye to Mark Leiter Jr. and Luke Little. Adbert Alzolay’s projection breaks down as a 3.00 ERA as a reliever and a 4.43 ERA as a starter.

I’m considering adding another table next offseason for the pitchers who ZiPS projects with time as both a starter and a reliever. Along these lines, one guy where you might want to look past the projection is Ben Brown. ZiPS thinks that Brown would be a dynamite late reliever, projecting a 3.20 ERA if he were used that way. He’s probably the eighth or ninth starter in the rotation right now, and a more focused relief role might help him shore up his command.

There’s still a lot of winter to go, but ZiPS sees the Cubs as most likely finishing in the 83-88 win range or thereabouts. Chicago is the last NL Central team to go and, probably to nobody’s surprise, ZiPS doesn’t see a big dog in the division. As of right now, it sees the Cardinals as a very slight favorite, the Brewers and Cubs close behind, the Reds a few games back of that, and the Pirates in the mid-to-high-70s in wins, though not so far behind that it would be the craziest thing in the world for them to contend in the division.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Dansby Swanson R 30 SS 633 566 85 144 28 2 22 77 58 153 9 3
Nico Hoerner R 27 2B 607 551 77 152 25 3 11 66 40 73 29 5
Cody Bellinger L 28 CF 544 487 80 130 24 2 19 73 44 92 14 4
Ian Happ B 29 LF 620 538 76 135 32 3 21 79 73 146 10 3
Michael Busch L 26 3B 564 495 81 123 28 2 22 75 55 148 3 1
Seiya Suzuki R 29 RF 562 492 74 134 27 4 22 72 61 125 6 6
Christopher Morel R 25 CF 546 492 77 119 22 5 26 82 45 168 10 4
Nick Madrigal R 27 3B 351 321 43 90 16 3 2 32 18 31 8 2
Mike Tauchman L 33 CF 427 366 63 86 19 1 8 45 54 100 8 1
Pete Crow-Armstrong L 22 CF 531 483 83 116 20 6 14 70 34 151 23 9
Miles Mastrobuoni L 28 3B 429 383 55 98 17 4 5 40 43 95 15 3
Matt Mervis L 26 1B 540 483 69 121 26 1 21 76 45 135 1 1
Chase Strumpf R 26 3B 432 373 51 75 17 1 13 53 47 160 2 1
Patrick Wisdom R 32 3B 391 345 52 73 15 0 23 60 39 143 5 2
Yan Gomes R 36 C 347 320 36 80 15 1 9 42 17 70 1 1
Yonathan Perlaza B 25 LF 520 468 65 112 28 2 15 66 47 135 7 4
Luis Vazquez R 24 SS 493 448 51 104 18 1 10 54 31 128 6 6
David Bote R 31 SS 374 332 39 74 17 1 9 41 31 100 3 1
Kevin Alcantara R 21 CF 472 435 62 101 18 3 12 55 29 143 8 3
Joe Hudson R 33 C 244 213 24 43 7 0 7 25 26 83 1 1
Jake Slaughter R 27 3B 433 391 48 87 15 1 12 57 28 132 11 5
Miguel Amaya R 25 C 260 223 26 49 11 0 7 31 25 71 1 1
Alexander Canario R 24 RF 416 382 48 84 17 2 17 57 29 140 6 2
BJ Murray Jr. B 24 3B 507 449 54 100 24 2 9 54 52 138 7 2
Hayden Cantrelle B 25 2B 366 307 43 57 12 2 4 34 47 104 9 3
Jorge Alfaro R 31 C 317 297 26 70 14 1 7 39 12 95 4 1
Matt Shaw R 22 SS 179 169 21 45 7 2 6 26 6 32 8 2
Moises Ballesteros L 20 C 476 432 51 106 22 0 13 54 39 98 2 1
Eric Hosmer L 34 1B 402 369 37 98 18 0 9 46 29 75 2 1
Brennen Davis R 24 RF 372 334 40 72 18 0 8 51 25 112 6 3
Caleb Knight R 28 C 104 89 10 19 3 0 1 11 9 23 0 1
Brian Serven R 29 C 257 237 22 47 8 1 6 25 13 78 0 1
Ezequiel Pagan L 23 RF 437 400 49 99 14 3 6 46 24 82 6 5
Joshua Rivera R 23 SS 116 108 13 22 4 1 2 11 6 40 1 1
Edwin Ríos L 30 3B 258 230 29 47 11 0 9 29 21 94 0 1
Darius Hill L 26 RF 430 399 49 104 19 2 4 42 24 74 3 2
Tyler Payne R 31 C 203 190 17 44 10 1 2 21 9 54 0 1
Bryce Windham L 27 C 251 223 26 52 8 1 2 20 22 49 2 1
Bradlee Beesley R 26 CF 311 281 36 58 13 3 6 34 22 103 13 2
Jake Washer R 28 C 183 175 17 35 7 0 5 19 7 65 1 1
D.J. Artis L 27 LF 201 176 27 35 5 1 3 19 18 63 8 2
Owen Caissie L 21 RF 529 471 59 101 21 1 14 64 50 186 5 6
Felix Stevens R 24 1B 430 397 47 82 19 1 18 60 27 174 3 2
Liam Spence R 26 2B 149 132 15 24 4 0 1 10 14 47 1 1
Haydn McGeary R 24 1B 519 457 48 104 19 1 12 58 51 141 3 2
Fabian Pertuz R 23 3B 362 339 36 68 12 2 5 32 16 106 8 3
Zach Davis B 30 CF 186 167 23 33 4 0 0 14 14 59 12 2
Luis Verdugo R 23 3B 344 319 31 68 17 0 4 30 21 86 2 1
James Triantos R 21 2B 431 398 50 99 15 3 4 41 25 69 9 3
Pablo Aliendo R 23 C 377 340 38 70 16 1 8 44 25 123 2 1
Christian Franklin R 24 CF 370 321 49 66 11 2 8 42 35 116 7 5
Nelson Maldonado R 27 1B 355 324 35 76 18 1 6 38 25 82 1 1
Casey Opitz B 25 C 246 219 21 40 6 0 3 19 23 92 1 1
Scott McKeon R 26 2B 242 221 27 39 9 2 2 20 12 102 7 1
Cole Roederer L 24 LF 353 318 32 66 11 1 7 36 28 113 5 2
Jordan Nwogu R 25 LF 380 347 39 67 9 2 10 43 23 148 9 4

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Dansby Swanson 633 .254 .327 .428 104 .173 .312 11 4.1 .327 82
Nico Hoerner 607 .276 .335 .392 98 .116 .302 15 3.9 .318 80
Cody Bellinger 544 .267 .327 .441 108 .175 .295 3 2.7 .328 75
Ian Happ 620 .251 .344 .439 112 .188 .307 4 2.6 .338 84
Michael Busch 564 .248 .333 .446 111 .198 .311 -2 2.5 .337 75
Seiya Suzuki 562 .272 .352 .478 124 .205 .325 -1 2.4 .354 87
Christopher Morel 546 .242 .309 .465 108 .224 .312 -4 2.0 .331 74
Nick Madrigal 351 .280 .333 .368 92 .087 .306 8 1.8 .310 42
Mike Tauchman 427 .235 .337 .358 91 .123 .302 5 1.8 .310 46
Pete Crow-Armstrong 531 .240 .301 .393 88 .153 .321 6 1.7 .302 66
Miles Mastrobuoni 429 .256 .330 .360 89 .104 .329 2 1.4 .307 50
Matt Mervis 540 .251 .322 .439 106 .188 .306 2 1.3 .327 69
Chase Strumpf 432 .201 .306 .357 81 .155 .310 7 1.3 .295 41
Patrick Wisdom 391 .212 .300 .455 103 .243 .279 -3 1.1 .323 49
Yan Gomes 347 .250 .297 .388 85 .138 .295 0 0.8 .296 37
Yonathan Perlaza 520 .239 .312 .404 94 .165 .305 3 0.8 .311 62
Luis Vazquez 493 .232 .292 .344 73 .112 .303 5 0.8 .280 49
David Bote 374 .223 .300 .361 80 .139 .291 0 0.7 .292 37
Kevin Alcantara 472 .232 .284 .370 77 .138 .318 4 0.7 .284 49
Joe Hudson 244 .202 .295 .333 72 .131 .293 3 0.6 .281 22
Jake Slaughter 433 .223 .291 .358 76 .136 .304 3 0.6 .286 45
Miguel Amaya 260 .220 .320 .363 87 .143 .290 -3 0.5 .305 27
Alexander Canario 416 .220 .279 .408 85 .188 .298 5 0.5 .296 46
BJ Murray Jr. 507 .223 .310 .345 79 .122 .301 -2 0.5 .292 50
Hayden Cantrelle 366 .186 .310 .277 63 .091 .266 2 0.1 .273 29
Jorge Alfaro 317 .236 .278 .360 73 .125 .323 -3 0.1 .278 31
Matt Shaw 179 .266 .302 .438 99 .172 .298 -7 0.1 .315 25
Moises Ballesteros 476 .245 .307 .387 88 .141 .290 -14 0.0 .302 52
Eric Hosmer 402 .266 .321 .388 93 .122 .312 -2 0.0 .308 47
Brennen Davis 372 .216 .293 .341 73 .126 .299 5 0.0 .283 36
Caleb Knight 104 .213 .327 .281 69 .067 .277 -1 0.0 .285 9
Brian Serven 257 .198 .250 .316 54 .118 .268 3 -0.1 .249 19
Ezequiel Pagan 437 .248 .303 .343 76 .095 .298 4 -0.1 .285 45
Joshua Rivera 116 .204 .250 .315 53 .111 .303 1 -0.2 .247 9
Edwin Ríos 258 .204 .283 .370 77 .165 .299 -3 -0.2 .286 24
Darius Hill 430 .261 .307 .348 79 .088 .312 1 -0.2 .288 44
Tyler Payne 203 .232 .272 .326 63 .095 .313 -2 -0.3 .263 17
Bryce Windham 251 .233 .302 .305 67 .072 .291 -5 -0.4 .273 21
Bradlee Beesley 311 .206 .283 .338 69 .132 .302 -6 -0.4 .276 30
Jake Washer 183 .200 .235 .326 51 .126 .286 -2 -0.5 .244 14
D.J. Artis 201 .199 .294 .290 61 .091 .291 -2 -0.6 .267 17
Owen Caissie 529 .214 .295 .352 77 .138 .321 -1 -0.6 .287 53
Felix Stevens 430 .207 .265 .395 78 .189 .312 0 -0.6 .285 43
Liam Spence 149 .182 .264 .235 38 .053 .274 -1 -0.7 .231 9
Haydn McGeary 519 .228 .314 .352 82 .125 .303 -4 -0.7 .296 52
Fabian Pertuz 362 .201 .246 .292 47 .091 .276 5 -0.7 .238 27
Zach Davis 186 .198 .270 .222 37 .024 .306 -1 -0.7 .230 13
Luis Verdugo 344 .213 .262 .304 55 .091 .279 1 -0.7 .251 26
James Triantos 431 .249 .299 .332 73 .083 .292 -9 -0.7 .279 43
Pablo Aliendo 377 .206 .275 .329 65 .124 .297 -9 -0.8 .269 32
Christian Franklin 370 .206 .304 .327 73 .121 .294 -9 -0.8 .285 35
Nelson Maldonado 355 .235 .294 .352 76 .117 .297 -2 -0.8 .284 34
Casey Opitz 246 .183 .265 .251 43 .068 .298 -4 -0.9 .238 15
Scott McKeon 242 .176 .231 .262 35 .086 .316 -1 -1.1 .221 15
Cole Roederer 353 .208 .275 .314 61 .107 .298 -1 -1.1 .262 29
Jordan Nwogu 380 .193 .256 .317 56 .124 .302 1 -1.3 .254 32

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Dansby Swanson Joe Cronin Marcus Semien Bill Rigney
Nico Hoerner Joey Cora Wallace Johnson Dave Cash
Cody Bellinger Bill Sample Terry Puhl Terry Moore
Ian Happ Sandy Amoros Lee Mazzilli Ben Zobrist
Michael Busch Jack Howell Jeff Blauser Doug DeCinces
Seiya Suzuki Chris Taylor Mitch Haniger Al Smith
Christopher Morel Jim Beauchamp Wally Post Michael Saunders
Nick Madrigal Keith Drumright David Fletcher Joey Cora
Mike Tauchman F.P. Santangelo Kosuke Fukudome Dave Stegman
Pete Crow-Armstrong Sonny Johnson Junior Felix 펠릭스 Barry Shetrone
Miles Mastrobuoni J.P. Schmidt Everth Cabrera Mike Bucci
Matt Mervis John Poff Chris Parmelee Jerry Tabb
Chase Strumpf Steve Curry Ronald Evans Joe Biasucci
Patrick Wisdom Orlando McFarlane Mike Hessman Brooks Conrad
Yan Gomes Bo Diaz Chris Coste Brook Fordyce
Yonathan Perlaza Travis Snider Norm Miller Dave Edwards
Luis Vazquez Fausto Cruz Frank Duffy Eddie Pye
David Bote Jason Maxwell Mike Moriarty Gaylen Pitts
Kevin Alcantara Derek Reid Lee Howell Rob Lukachyk
Joe Hudson Joe Lonnett Jarrod Saltalamacchia Wes Westrum
Jake Slaughter Duncan Campbell Tyler Greene Jim Haley
Miguel Amaya David Rolls Tyler Sanchez Logan Porter
Alexander Canario J.J. Davis Jayson Drobiak Mike Easler
BJ Murray Jr. Scott Stahoviak Scott Ullger Paul Hundhammer
Hayden Cantrelle Rusty Harris Andy Kanoza Rosben Majam
Jorge Alfaro Dave Cochrane Damian Miller José Molina
Matt Shaw Kevin Jordan Bobby Valentine Howie Kendrick
Moises Ballesteros Randy Bobb Brad Gulden Robert Glass
Eric Hosmer Sean Casey Tommie Aaron Tony Gonzalez
Brennen Davis Randy Kapano Cleo Kilpatrick Francisco Sosa
Caleb Knight Mark Strittmatter Adam Weisenburger Francisco Diaz
Brian Serven Jimmy Gonzalez Jamie Williams Roger McCardell
Ezequiel Pagan Ryan Fleming Kevin Young Charlie Beamon
Joshua Rivera Fernando De Los Santos Franklin Correa Tony Rasmus
Edwin Ríos Fran Mullins Greg Norton Jerry Goff
Darius Hill Al Pedrique Noah Perio Alec Keller
Tyler Payne Bob Melvin Don Wakamatsu Jim Horner
Bryce Windham Geno Petralli Frank Biskup Sal Agostinelli
Bradlee Beesley Tanner English Corey Dempster Travis Becktel
Jake Washer Jose Reyes Brent Del Chiaro Donny Lucy
D.J. Artis Bub Bergstrom Bryce Kartler Marcus McGowan
Owen Caissie Caleb Gindl Joel Youngblood Sam Horn
Felix Stevens Jason Stokes Fred Cooley Tony Armas
Liam Spence Joe Aversa Joe Rhomberg Steve Huls
Haydn McGeary Scott Vieira Adam Terris Jason Botts
Fabian Pertuz Samuel Sime Ronald Drake Nick Bartolone
Zach Davis Mike Piercy Terrance Gore Rico Noel
Luis Verdugo Jeffrey Hehr Mike Denevi Kenny Miller
James Triantos Wilfredo Tovar Victor Rodríguez Eric Ayala
Pablo Aliendo Kiki Hernandez Darryl Cias Geff Davis
Christian Franklin Joe Kramer Vee Hightower James Egan
Nelson Maldonado Scott Savastano Danny Buxbaum Guillermo Velasquez
Casey Opitz Dan Plante Terry Bell Luke Carlin
Scott McKeon Leury Bonilla Bo Bolar Ridge Hoopii-Haslam
Cole Roederer Jerry Clark Bryce Kartler Brad Colton
Jordan Nwogu Tony Peters Troy Ricker John Cotton

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Dansby Swanson .281 .350 .480 123 5.6 .227 .297 .377 85 2.7
Nico Hoerner .305 .364 .433 117 5.2 .249 .310 .355 82 2.5
Cody Bellinger .291 .353 .498 127 4.0 .241 .303 .400 90 1.4
Ian Happ .275 .368 .500 133 4.1 .227 .320 .390 94 1.1
Michael Busch .271 .359 .504 130 3.9 .224 .309 .394 92 1.3
Seiya Suzuki .301 .377 .535 145 3.8 .248 .327 .425 105 1.2
Christopher Morel .269 .337 .532 132 3.6 .215 .282 .409 88 0.7
Nick Madrigal .309 .361 .406 111 2.6 .252 .307 .325 75 1.0
Mike Tauchman .260 .365 .396 107 2.7 .206 .307 .305 70 0.6
Pete Crow-Armstrong .265 .326 .445 107 2.9 .216 .277 .354 72 0.5
Miles Mastrobuoni .286 .359 .400 108 2.3 .225 .299 .315 68 0.2
Matt Mervis .274 .347 .500 127 2.7 .223 .296 .388 86 0.0
Chase Strumpf .226 .330 .412 101 2.3 .173 .277 .300 58 0.1
Patrick Wisdom .242 .325 .526 126 2.3 .187 .277 .386 81 0.1
Yan Gomes .282 .326 .440 103 1.7 .218 .272 .335 64 0.0
Yonathan Perlaza .265 .338 .465 114 2.1 .212 .283 .357 74 -0.5
Luis Vazquez .256 .315 .388 92 1.9 .207 .269 .310 60 -0.1
David Bote .252 .329 .414 99 1.6 .197 .274 .315 61 -0.3
Kevin Alcantara .258 .310 .417 94 1.7 .207 .260 .330 58 -0.4
Joe Hudson .232 .327 .392 92 1.2 .174 .264 .281 52 0.0
Jake Slaughter .249 .315 .406 95 1.7 .198 .261 .304 55 -0.5
Miguel Amaya .249 .350 .418 110 1.2 .191 .295 .305 66 -0.1
Alexander Canario .249 .311 .467 107 1.7 .192 .253 .353 63 -0.6
BJ Murray Jr. .247 .335 .396 98 1.6 .197 .285 .302 62 -0.7
Hayden Cantrelle .211 .337 .324 82 1.0 .159 .282 .231 44 -0.7
Jorge Alfaro .264 .308 .410 92 0.9 .210 .253 .319 57 -0.6
Matt Shaw .296 .330 .500 121 0.6 .240 .275 .382 78 -0.4
Moises Ballesteros .275 .335 .440 107 1.1 .220 .276 .342 68 -1.2
Eric Hosmer .294 .346 .429 110 1.0 .232 .291 .339 71 -1.1
Brennen Davis .242 .314 .377 88 0.7 .191 .267 .295 55 -0.9
Caleb Knight .250 .356 .329 89 0.2 .181 .290 .239 51 -0.3
Brian Serven .231 .282 .380 77 0.7 .171 .223 .276 36 -0.7
Ezequiel Pagan .276 .326 .391 94 0.9 .221 .275 .308 61 -1.1
Joshua Rivera .231 .281 .366 74 0.1 .177 .221 .267 32 -0.5
Edwin Ríos .235 .310 .423 97 0.5 .180 .258 .316 58 -0.8
Darius Hill .292 .333 .387 97 0.8 .229 .274 .311 59 -1.3
Tyler Payne .264 .304 .368 83 0.2 .206 .247 .286 46 -0.8
Bryce Windham .272 .336 .352 90 0.3 .202 .273 .265 50 -1.0
Bradlee Beesley .232 .311 .382 86 0.3 .178 .255 .297 52 -1.1
Jake Washer .235 .272 .389 77 0.1 .169 .204 .276 30 -1.0
D.J. Artis .227 .325 .332 79 -0.1 .172 .267 .256 44 -1.0
Owen Caissie .242 .324 .401 97 0.6 .188 .269 .296 55 -2.0
Felix Stevens .234 .297 .456 99 0.5 .179 .243 .340 57 -1.7
Liam Spence .213 .294 .278 58 -0.3 .153 .232 .195 20 -1.0
Haydn McGeary .253 .341 .400 101 0.5 .202 .289 .310 65 -1.8
Fabian Pertuz .228 .272 .340 64 0.1 .172 .219 .253 29 -1.5
Zach Davis .228 .301 .257 56 -0.3 .169 .241 .193 23 -1.1
Luis Verdugo .239 .288 .351 72 0.0 .184 .232 .262 36 -1.6
James Triantos .276 .325 .379 90 0.2 .220 .277 .292 57 -1.6
Pablo Aliendo .238 .308 .375 86 0.2 .182 .252 .294 50 -1.5
Christian Franklin .232 .333 .372 89 0.1 .180 .279 .285 56 -1.5
Nelson Maldonado .261 .322 .403 97 0.1 .210 .266 .310 59 -1.5
Casey Opitz .212 .295 .302 61 -0.4 .151 .234 .208 24 -1.5
Scott McKeon .204 .256 .310 53 -0.6 .150 .204 .219 17 -1.7
Cole Roederer .233 .301 .353 77 -0.4 .184 .253 .267 44 -1.9
Jordan Nwogu .221 .279 .365 73 -0.4 .169 .231 .274 37 -2.2

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Dansby Swanson .259 .337 .437 .252 .323 .424
Nico Hoerner .280 .338 .386 .273 .333 .395
Cody Bellinger .257 .314 .434 .272 .333 .445
Ian Happ .247 .339 .416 .253 .345 .448
Michael Busch .233 .319 .413 .260 .343 .471
Seiya Suzuki .282 .374 .497 .267 .340 .467
Christopher Morel .245 .319 .473 .240 .302 .461
Nick Madrigal .283 .338 .375 .279 .330 .363
Mike Tauchman .232 .327 .347 .236 .341 .362
Pete Crow-Armstrong .234 .300 .377 .243 .302 .401
Miles Mastrobuoni .244 .314 .346 .264 .341 .370
Matt Mervis .240 .312 .402 .257 .328 .461
Chase Strumpf .198 .307 .370 .204 .305 .346
Patrick Wisdom .215 .306 .469 .209 .296 .447
Yan Gomes .262 .310 .393 .244 .290 .385
Yonathan Perlaza .238 .312 .404 .240 .311 .404
Luis Vazquez .233 .295 .349 .232 .290 .340
David Bote .227 .306 .361 .221 .297 .362
Kevin Alcantara .236 .295 .385 .230 .277 .360
Joe Hudson .200 .305 .333 .203 .288 .333
Jake Slaughter .232 .301 .367 .215 .283 .350
Miguel Amaya .232 .333 .379 .211 .311 .352
Alexander Canario .219 .286 .427 .221 .273 .392
BJ Murray Jr. .219 .309 .338 .225 .310 .349
Hayden Cantrelle .180 .313 .287 .189 .307 .270
Jorge Alfaro .240 .280 .380 .234 .276 .350
Matt Shaw .271 .311 .429 .263 .295 .444
Moises Ballesteros .233 .290 .350 .250 .313 .401
Eric Hosmer .250 .302 .345 .273 .330 .407
Brennen Davis .221 .302 .359 .212 .286 .328
Caleb Knight .225 .340 .250 .204 .316 .306
Brian Serven .198 .250 .333 .199 .250 .305
Ezequiel Pagan .236 .296 .333 .253 .306 .347
Joshua Rivera .205 .255 .364 .203 .246 .281
Edwin Ríos .200 .274 .338 .206 .286 .382
Darius Hill .250 .297 .324 .267 .312 .363
Tyler Payne .235 .287 .346 .229 .261 .312
Bryce Windham .219 .284 .288 .240 .311 .313
Bradlee Beesley .207 .281 .345 .206 .284 .333
Jake Washer .207 .244 .317 .194 .227 .333
D.J. Artis .196 .297 .268 .200 .292 .300
Owen Caissie .200 .277 .309 .222 .305 .376
Felix Stevens .204 .271 .395 .208 .261 .396
Liam Spence .179 .270 .214 .184 .259 .250
Haydn McGeary .224 .317 .339 .230 .313 .360
Fabian Pertuz .207 .255 .300 .196 .239 .286
Zach Davis .205 .275 .233 .191 .267 .213
Luis Verdugo .219 .275 .321 .209 .253 .291
James Triantos .253 .307 .352 .246 .294 .318
Pablo Aliendo .213 .280 .333 .200 .271 .326
Christian Franklin .210 .319 .339 .203 .295 .320
Nelson Maldonado .239 .306 .373 .231 .284 .335
Casey Opitz .179 .273 .244 .184 .261 .255
Scott McKeon .174 .232 .272 .178 .230 .256
Cole Roederer .204 .269 .296 .209 .278 .323
Jordan Nwogu .195 .260 .318 .192 .252 .316

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Shota Imanaga L 30 8 5 3.55 25 25 137.0 125 54 15 40 146
Justin Steele L 28 10 8 3.64 29 27 153.3 147 62 17 45 139
Jameson Taillon R 32 7 8 4.41 26 25 136.7 135 67 21 37 119
Kyle Hendricks R 34 7 8 4.41 25 25 132.7 140 65 20 32 103
Jordan Wicks L 24 5 6 4.40 25 25 110.3 108 54 14 39 94
Adbert Alzolay R 29 5 4 3.74 42 7 74.7 65 31 10 20 78
Ben Brown R 24 7 7 4.23 25 20 95.7 88 45 12 41 96
Javier Assad R 26 5 5 4.33 31 17 114.3 114 55 15 45 91
Walker Powell R 28 7 7 4.34 24 17 95.3 101 46 13 22 68
Drew Smyly L 35 8 10 4.54 32 21 121.0 122 61 20 41 116
Thomas Pannone 파노니 L 30 5 6 4.56 23 19 106.7 114 54 16 29 83
Hayden Wesneski R 26 5 6 4.51 30 17 101.7 97 51 14 37 94
Caleb Kilian R 27 5 5 4.72 24 22 108.7 113 57 12 42 87
Cade Horton R 22 4 4 4.50 22 22 86.0 82 43 12 28 71
Nick Neidert R 27 5 6 4.75 23 20 94.7 100 50 13 31 65
Chris Clarke R 26 5 5 4.59 28 13 80.3 88 41 11 21 57
Mark Leiter Jr. R 33 4 5 4.32 45 6 73.0 65 35 10 29 75
Keegan Thompson R 29 4 5 4.38 33 7 74.0 67 36 10 35 72
Richard Gallardo R 22 5 7 4.97 20 20 92.3 99 51 13 33 62
Porter Hodge R 23 5 7 4.85 30 14 81.7 76 44 10 46 80
Julian Merryweather R 32 3 2 3.97 56 0 56.7 48 25 8 24 75
Michael Fulmer R 31 4 4 4.36 52 2 53.7 50 26 7 24 60
Luke Little L 23 3 2 4.13 56 0 56.7 46 26 7 29 70
Daniel Palencia R 24 3 3 4.74 35 10 57.0 52 30 8 31 59
Brandon Birdsell R 24 4 7 5.17 21 21 92.3 97 53 15 34 59
Roenis Elías 엘리아스 L 35 2 2 4.61 24 5 41.0 43 21 6 14 32
Jose Cuas R 30 3 3 4.27 63 1 59.0 54 28 8 26 65
Manuel Espinoza R 23 4 7 5.14 21 18 75.3 82 43 13 25 54
Chris Kachmar R 27 2 2 4.97 20 9 54.3 57 30 8 20 43
Kohl Franklin R 24 5 8 5.27 23 23 85.3 87 50 12 43 71
Riley Thompson R 27 4 6 5.24 21 17 67.0 70 39 10 37 56
Bailey Horn L 26 3 5 4.75 36 3 55.0 52 29 8 30 56
Ben Leeper R 27 3 2 4.38 37 0 39.0 36 19 5 16 37
Codi Heuer R 27 3 2 4.33 28 0 35.3 35 17 4 14 31
Zac Leigh R 26 2 2 4.46 29 0 36.3 32 18 5 17 42
Brandon Hughes L 28 2 3 4.50 39 0 42.0 37 21 6 19 45
Yency Almonte R 30 2 2 4.34 44 0 45.7 39 22 6 21 51
Frankie Scalzo Jr. R 24 3 5 4.61 37 1 66.3 68 34 9 23 49
Cam Sanders R 27 4 5 5.04 37 7 69.7 62 39 10 47 76
Shane Greene R 35 1 2 5.14 19 3 28.0 28 16 4 14 25
Michael Rucker R 30 2 2 4.76 42 1 56.7 57 30 8 23 51
Stephen Gonsalves L 29 2 2 5.27 20 6 41.0 36 24 6 30 49
Richard Bleier L 37 1 1 4.75 37 1 36.0 42 19 6 6 24
Brad Boxberger R 36 2 2 4.89 44 1 38.7 36 21 6 19 38
Jake Reindl R 27 0 0 5.06 8 0 10.7 10 6 2 5 9
Colten Brewer R 31 1 0 5.16 23 1 29.7 29 17 5 13 27
Blake Whitney R 28 2 3 4.70 33 0 59.3 61 31 9 25 53
Riley Martin L 26 4 4 4.71 36 0 57.3 51 30 8 37 67
Cayne Ueckert R 28 2 3 5.11 32 0 37.0 35 21 5 23 37
Josh Roberson R 28 2 3 5.54 31 2 37.3 37 23 5 27 35
Joe Nahas R 24 3 4 5.40 28 5 68.3 76 41 10 34 44
Hunter Bigge R 26 2 3 5.16 37 0 45.3 43 26 6 31 45
Max Bain R 26 2 5 6.06 18 9 49.0 51 33 8 34 41
Michael McAvene R 26 1 1 6.35 17 0 22.7 23 16 3 17 18
Eduarniel Nunez R 25 2 3 5.88 34 0 41.3 41 27 6 32 37
Ben Hecht R 29 1 3 6.75 22 0 25.3 25 19 4 23 23
Burl Carraway L 25 1 2 8.00 19 0 18.0 17 16 3 26 18
Kyle Johnson R 30 1 4 7.13 25 0 35.3 40 28 6 32 24

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Shota Imanaga 137.0 9.6 2.6 1.0 7.0% 25.6% .301 117 3.55 86 2.9
Justin Steele 153.3 8.2 2.6 1.0 7.0% 21.5% .295 114 3.90 88 2.9
Jameson Taillon 136.7 7.8 2.4 1.4 6.4% 20.7% .289 94 4.43 107 1.5
Kyle Hendricks 132.7 7.0 2.2 1.4 5.7% 18.4% .296 94 4.52 107 1.4
Jordan Wicks 110.3 7.7 3.2 1.1 8.2% 19.7% .291 94 4.37 106 1.2
Adbert Alzolay 74.7 9.4 2.4 1.2 6.6% 25.6% .281 111 3.91 90 1.2
Ben Brown 95.7 9.0 3.9 1.1 9.9% 23.1% .291 98 4.29 102 1.2
Javier Assad 114.3 7.2 3.5 1.2 9.1% 18.3% .289 96 4.73 105 1.1
Walker Powell 95.3 6.4 2.1 1.2 5.5% 16.9% .294 95 4.39 105 1.1
Drew Smyly 121.0 8.6 3.0 1.5 7.8% 22.2% .299 91 4.63 110 1.0
Thomas Pannone 106.7 7.0 2.4 1.4 6.3% 18.1% .300 91 4.55 110 0.9
Hayden Wesneski 101.7 8.3 3.3 1.2 8.5% 21.6% .289 92 4.41 109 0.9
Caleb Kilian 108.7 7.2 3.5 1.0 8.8% 18.1% .304 88 4.41 114 0.8
Cade Horton 86.0 7.4 2.9 1.3 7.7% 19.5% .279 92 4.43 109 0.8
Nick Neidert 94.7 6.2 2.9 1.2 7.5% 15.8% .291 87 4.87 115 0.7
Chris Clarke 80.3 6.4 2.4 1.2 6.0% 16.4% .302 90 4.55 111 0.6
Mark Leiter Jr. 73.0 9.2 3.6 1.2 9.3% 24.0% .284 96 4.46 104 0.6
Keegan Thompson 74.0 8.8 4.3 1.2 10.8% 22.3% .282 95 4.65 106 0.6
Richard Gallardo 92.3 6.0 3.2 1.3 8.1% 15.3% .293 83 5.01 120 0.5
Porter Hodge 81.7 8.8 5.1 1.1 12.4% 21.6% .293 85 4.87 117 0.4
Julian Merryweather 56.7 11.9 3.8 1.3 10.0% 31.1% .303 104 3.82 96 0.3
Michael Fulmer 53.7 10.1 4.0 1.2 10.2% 25.5% .305 95 4.22 105 0.3
Luke Little 56.7 11.1 4.6 1.1 11.9% 28.8% .287 100 4.08 100 0.3
Daniel Palencia 57.0 9.3 4.9 1.3 12.0% 22.9% .289 87 4.90 114 0.2
Brandon Birdsell 92.3 5.8 3.3 1.5 8.4% 14.6% .280 80 5.32 125 0.2
Roenis Elías 41.0 7.0 3.1 1.3 7.9% 18.0% .296 90 4.69 111 0.2
Jose Cuas 59.0 9.9 4.0 1.2 10.2% 25.4% .299 97 4.44 103 0.2
Manuel Espinoza 75.3 6.5 3.0 1.6 7.6% 16.4% .294 81 5.22 124 0.2
Chris Kachmar 54.3 7.1 3.3 1.3 8.3% 17.8% .297 83 5.02 120 0.2
Kohl Franklin 85.3 7.5 4.5 1.3 11.1% 18.4% .295 78 5.25 127 0.2
Riley Thompson 67.0 7.5 5.0 1.3 12.1% 18.2% .300 79 5.23 127 0.1
Bailey Horn 55.0 9.2 4.9 1.3 12.2% 22.8% .295 87 4.91 115 0.1
Ben Leeper 39.0 8.5 3.7 1.2 9.6% 22.2% .287 94 4.49 106 0.1
Codi Heuer 35.3 7.9 3.6 1.0 8.9% 19.7% .301 96 4.25 105 0.1
Zac Leigh 36.3 10.4 4.2 1.2 10.8% 26.6% .293 93 4.38 108 0.1
Brandon Hughes 42.0 9.6 4.1 1.3 10.5% 24.9% .284 92 4.61 109 0.0
Yency Almonte 45.7 10.1 4.1 1.2 10.7% 26.0% .284 95 4.37 105 0.0
Frankie Scalzo Jr. 66.3 6.6 3.1 1.2 7.9% 16.8% .289 90 4.72 111 0.0
Cam Sanders 69.7 9.8 6.1 1.3 14.7% 23.8% .289 82 5.31 122 0.0
Shane Greene 28.0 8.0 4.5 1.3 11.3% 20.2% .296 80 5.04 124 -0.1
Michael Rucker 56.7 8.1 3.7 1.3 9.3% 20.6% .299 87 4.67 115 -0.1
Stephen Gonsalves 41.0 10.8 6.6 1.3 15.8% 25.8% .297 79 5.33 127 -0.1
Richard Bleier 36.0 6.0 1.5 1.5 3.9% 15.5% .308 87 4.76 115 -0.1
Brad Boxberger 38.7 8.8 4.4 1.4 11.2% 22.5% .286 85 5.01 118 -0.1
Jake Reindl 10.7 7.6 4.2 1.7 10.9% 19.6% .267 82 6.26 122 -0.1
Colten Brewer 29.7 8.2 3.9 1.5 9.9% 20.6% .286 82 5.14 123 -0.1
Blake Whitney 59.3 8.0 3.8 1.4 9.4% 19.9% .301 88 4.81 114 -0.1
Riley Martin 57.3 10.5 5.8 1.3 14.2% 25.7% .299 88 4.82 114 -0.2
Cayne Ueckert 37.0 9.0 5.6 1.2 13.6% 21.9% .297 81 5.12 123 -0.3
Josh Roberson 37.3 8.4 6.5 1.2 15.3% 19.8% .302 75 5.53 134 -0.3
Joe Nahas 68.3 5.8 4.5 1.3 10.8% 13.9% .297 77 5.58 130 -0.4
Hunter Bigge 45.3 8.9 6.2 1.2 14.6% 21.1% .296 80 5.17 125 -0.4
Max Bain 49.0 7.5 6.2 1.5 14.5% 17.4% .297 68 6.21 146 -0.4
Michael McAvene 22.7 7.1 6.8 1.2 15.6% 16.5% .294 65 6.03 153 -0.5
Eduarniel Nunez 41.3 8.1 7.0 1.3 15.8% 18.3% .294 70 6.04 142 -0.6
Ben Hecht 25.3 8.2 8.2 1.4 18.1% 18.1% .292 61 6.69 163 -0.7
Burl Carraway 18.0 9.0 13.0 1.5 25.7% 17.8% .286 52 8.09 193 -0.7
Kyle Johnson 35.3 6.1 8.2 1.5 17.9% 13.4% .301 58 7.33 172 -1.1

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Shota Imanaga Howie Pollet Herb Pennock Vida Blue
Justin Steele Joe Nuxhall Matt Harrison Ken Holtzman
Jameson Taillon Jeremy Guthrie Ivan Nova Jeff Samardzija
Kyle Hendricks Braden Looper Kyle Lohse Andy Ashby
Jordan Wicks Steve Cooke Allen Watson Brian Tallet
Adbert Alzolay Scott Sullivan Chris Devenski Al Gettel
Ben Brown Dave DeBusschere Josh Karp Ed Myers
Javier Assad Sammy Ellis Dave Hillman Enrique Gonzalez
Walker Powell Adrian Sampson 샘슨 Joel Payamps Paul Quantrill
Drew Smyly Frank Tanana Mickey Haefner Rudy May
Thomas Pannone John Danks Mark Hendrickson Kirk Rueter
Hayden Wesneski Arnie Portocarrero Mike Campbell Wayland Dean
Caleb Kilian Bob Thollander Zach Monroe Mike Pelfrey
Cade Horton Henry Pawlowicz Rob Henkel Jake Odorizzi
Nick Neidert Albert Suárez Jorge De Paula Larry Crews
Chris Clarke Terance Marin Raul Alcantara Tim Englund
Mark Leiter Jr. Carlos Torres Tom Sturdivant Phil Collins
Keegan Thompson Luke Farrell Craig McMurtry Scott Cassidy
Richard Gallardo Zach Lee Dave Miller Ronald Herrera
Porter Hodge Dan Cortes Carlos Pimentel Robin Fuson
Julian Merryweather Rollie Fingers Scott Service Jay Witasick
Michael Fulmer Jonathan Albaladejo Roberto Giron Bryan Shaw
Luke Little Tim Collins Darren Oliver Bill Bayne
Daniel Palencia Zach Jackson Jhondaniel Medina Brian Ellington
Brandon Birdsell Alex Faedo Willie Fraser Bill Ferrell
Roenis Elías Jack Spring Mark Thurmond Dave Schuler
Jose Cuas Lerrin LaGrow Steve Montgomery Darryl Scott
Manuel Espinoza Rick Durant Daniel Guerrero Keenan Bartlett
Chris Kachmar Milt Wilcox Jeff Little Matt Karchner
Kohl Franklin Bill Melvin Francisco De La Cruz John Papa
Riley Thompson Scott Conner Bobby Darwin Jordan Tata
Bailey Horn Derrick Gordon Gregg Langbehn Nick Maronde
Ben Leeper Art Herring Barry Jones Ed Bauta
Codi Heuer Marv Rockman Bruce Thompson John Birtwell
Zac Leigh Ed Bernard Fred Lasher Brent Foshie
Brandon Hughes John Morris Alvin Morman Bill Pleis
Yency Almonte Jose Veras Bob Long Ryan Cook
Frankie Scalzo Jr. Blake Wood Sam Bragg Steve Maye
Cam Sanders Jim Bullinger Terry Felton Marvin Freeman
Shane Greene Doug Corbett Mike James Matt Karchner
Michael Rucker Roman Colon 콜론 Charles Garmon Alfredo Simon
Stephen Gonsalves Matt Smith Tony Cingrani C.J. Wilson
Richard Bleier Joe Ostrowski Stubby Overmire Buddy Groom
Brad Boxberger Hector Carrasco Jason Isringhausen Dan Miceli
Jake Reindl Les Munns Daryl Patterson Fred Lasher
Colten Brewer Lou Koupal Rob Marquez Lerrin LaGrow
Blake Whitney Steve Rowe Justin Pope Ryan Basner
Riley Martin Mark McLemore Wesley Wright Stephen Tarpley
Cayne Ueckert Luis De La Cruz Layne Somsen Mark Lamm
Josh Roberson Stephen Shackleford Dan Ricabal Pete Nyari
Joe Nahas Claiborne Bryant Ryan Fraser Pedro Baez
Hunter Bigge Brandon Backe David Carpenter Ben Webb
Max Bain Phillip Cunningham Steve Whitmyer Ryne Miller
Michael McAvene Abner Johnson Steve Larose Vaughn Kovach
Eduarniel Nunez Francisco Lopez Corey Frerichs Curt Cleaver
Ben Hecht Jorge Marban Tad Slowik John Salamon
Burl Carraway Douglas Britt Monty McMillan Greg Smock
Kyle Johnson Mike Diorio Jon Ellis Jarod Juelsgaard

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Shota Imanaga .242 .306 .382 .235 .292 .376 4.0 1.8 2.96 4.35
Justin Steele .215 .285 .289 .257 .311 .425 3.8 2.0 3.21 4.14
Jameson Taillon .257 .324 .439 .248 .287 .426 2.3 0.5 3.92 5.12
Kyle Hendricks .265 .323 .461 .265 .302 .428 2.3 0.6 3.86 5.02
Jordan Wicks .276 .336 .417 .240 .309 .405 1.8 0.4 3.97 5.14
Adbert Alzolay .248 .311 .438 .211 .269 .340 1.8 0.3 3.10 4.75
Ben Brown .241 .324 .404 .236 .314 .389 1.9 0.5 3.73 4.91
Javier Assad .248 .336 .406 .260 .324 .423 1.8 0.3 3.85 4.99
Walker Powell .278 .323 .439 .254 .295 .425 1.7 0.4 3.85 4.87
Drew Smyly .227 .286 .391 .266 .331 .461 1.8 0.0 3.95 5.40
Thomas Pannone .260 .305 .435 .271 .322 .447 1.7 0.2 3.98 5.19
Hayden Wesneski .257 .329 .445 .235 .301 .382 1.6 0.1 3.91 5.14
Caleb Kilian .265 .338 .408 .260 .331 .409 1.4 0.0 4.25 5.36
Cade Horton .245 .319 .399 .246 .288 .433 1.4 0.2 3.91 5.11
Nick Neidert .279 .348 .448 .253 .313 .423 1.3 0.1 4.24 5.28
Chris Clarke .275 .323 .443 .270 .321 .443 1.2 0.1 4.02 5.20
Mark Leiter Jr. .219 .303 .380 .246 .333 .408 1.4 -0.2 3.58 5.32
Keegan Thompson .241 .338 .391 .232 .316 .404 1.2 -0.2 3.72 5.19
Richard Gallardo .265 .333 .435 .271 .338 .442 0.9 -0.2 4.54 5.65
Porter Hodge .257 .373 .405 .228 .330 .395 1.0 -0.4 4.34 5.62
Julian Merryweather .216 .315 .402 .229 .298 .373 1.0 -0.5 2.89 5.46
Michael Fulmer .235 .328 .373 .245 .325 .425 0.9 -0.4 3.47 5.64
Luke Little .194 .299 .269 .226 .325 .411 0.9 -0.4 3.31 5.14
Daniel Palencia .219 .341 .371 .254 .344 .439 0.8 -0.2 4.09 5.43
Brandon Birdsell .283 .345 .484 .246 .317 .421 0.8 -0.3 4.69 5.67
Roenis Elías .267 .327 .378 .263 .323 .466 0.6 -0.1 3.91 5.46
Jose Cuas .255 .357 .480 .225 .308 .341 0.8 -0.4 3.52 5.19
Manuel Espinoza .276 .342 .448 .268 .326 .490 0.6 -0.4 4.65 5.80
Chris Kachmar .269 .350 .472 .259 .331 .407 0.6 -0.2 4.34 5.64
Kohl Franklin .251 .354 .401 .265 .355 .459 0.7 -0.5 4.79 5.91
Riley Thompson .250 .347 .395 .275 .358 .479 0.6 -0.4 4.68 5.98
Bailey Horn .231 .329 .400 .250 .349 .426 0.6 -0.4 4.09 5.50
Ben Leeper .232 .338 .391 .247 .311 .407 0.4 -0.3 3.73 5.29
Codi Heuer .258 .329 .439 .250 .321 .375 0.3 -0.3 3.82 5.07
Zac Leigh .235 .333 .441 .225 .317 .352 0.4 -0.3 3.71 5.46
Brandon Hughes .231 .322 .346 .231 .328 .426 0.5 -0.4 3.75 5.28
Yency Almonte .250 .352 .408 .206 .297 .371 0.5 -0.4 3.57 5.18
Frankie Scalzo Jr. .244 .312 .386 .274 .336 .459 0.4 -0.4 4.04 5.12
Cam Sanders .246 .383 .447 .224 .346 .368 0.6 -0.9 4.31 6.14
Shane Greene .275 .383 .490 .237 .313 .390 0.2 -0.4 4.43 6.31
Michael Rucker .257 .333 .426 .254 .328 .426 0.4 -0.5 4.04 5.53
Stephen Gonsalves .208 .356 .354 .241 .376 .426 0.4 -0.6 4.35 6.41
Richard Bleier .241 .279 .379 .315 .347 .551 0.2 -0.4 3.97 5.63
Brad Boxberger .225 .321 .423 .256 .352 .423 0.3 -0.7 3.98 6.29
Jake Reindl .250 .375 .450 .238 .360 .429 0.0 -0.2 4.28 5.44
Colten Brewer .250 .339 .462 .250 .329 .438 0.1 -0.4 4.45 6.15
Blake Whitney .270 .344 .450 .250 .324 .419 0.3 -0.7 4.08 5.66
Riley Martin .225 .349 .366 .236 .349 .412 0.4 -0.7 3.95 5.53
Cayne Ueckert .273 .377 .439 .221 .344 .390 0.0 -0.7 4.46 6.03
Josh Roberson .262 .392 .415 .247 .367 .432 0.0 -0.7 4.83 6.50
Joe Nahas .288 .371 .477 .264 .355 .438 0.1 -0.9 4.87 6.02
Hunter Bigge .226 .356 .393 .261 .367 .424 0.0 -0.9 4.52 6.18
Max Bain .284 .420 .484 .242 .356 .424 0.0 -0.8 5.43 6.92
Michael McAvene .233 .377 .349 .283 .404 .522 -0.3 -0.7 5.63 7.23
Eduarniel Nunez .266 .389 .468 .241 .390 .398 -0.3 -1.1 5.30 6.86
Ben Hecht .245 .422 .449 .260 .397 .440 -0.3 -1.0 5.63 7.96
Burl Carraway .238 .467 .429 .245 .449 .429 -0.5 -1.1 6.76 10.43
Kyle Johnson .279 .437 .471 .280 .421 .480 -0.8 -1.5 6.18 8.31

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

41 Comments
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jfree
1 month ago

I’m considering adding another table next offseason for the pitchers who ZiPS projects with time as both a starter and a reliever.

That’s a great idea. Maybe this thread can serve as a source of ideas for what that might look like.

sadtrombonemember
1 month ago
Reply to  jfree

Is there a way to make the tables collapsible for next offseason? I’ve stopped reading the tables for the most part because there’s so much on there now, it’s hard to find what I’m looking for (which is literally just the “advanced stats” tables for hitters and pitchers).

EonADS
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

ThisThisThis a thousand times This.

whatmonster
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

yes, collapsed by default please

sadtrombonemember
1 month ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Really? There’s no way? Right now it is impossible to find anything. There’s so much in there. I thought I would love the 20th/80th percentiles but right now it’s too much. All I really want is the “advanced” table for both hitters and pitchers–I don’t need to know the counting stats, and I’ve given up on the comps because I never know what year they’re supposed to refer to.

The Duke
1 month ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Why not create a 40 man roster table and then an all other table. Most people spend their time looking at players who will actually play in the next year. On the all other maybe just do basic/advanced

si.or.nomember
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I’m so confused. Can’t you just… scroll past it? What kind of device are you using where scrolling is difficult?

catmanwayne
1 month ago
Reply to  si.or.no

It’s not so much that we can’t scroll, it’s that having to scroll and scroll and scroll and scroll just to find a few pieces of relevant info is a little annoying.

Jason Bmember
1 month ago
Reply to  si.or.no

Agreed – I’ve never seen stat nerds like ourselves complaining about an overabundance of stats…

EonADS
1 month ago
Reply to  jfree

Separate projections for each part, with one row for each? Or three with a combined projection? And if there’s a combined projection, does it account for having to fill both roles in terms of appearances/IP?

jfree
1 month ago
Reply to  EonADS

I was thinking some ‘ratio’ of something. Maybe a variance to indicate whether said pitcher is really likely to benefit from a reliever role at this point rather than just ‘the usual’ benefits from shorter outings and fewer 1 IP innings. I’ve long thought that MLB needs more tweener pitchers – not ready for the 6 IP but not just the usual 3 outs and out. Like once through the order maybe. Have no idea how that could even be projected.