2024 ZiPS Projections: San Francisco Giants

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

If they don’t make any other moves this offseason, the Giants would enter 2024 without any serious holes in the lineup and pretty good depth at most spots. Problem is, they would also enter 2024 without a whole lot of ceiling in the offense. It’s certainly not from lack of trying; the Giants were within striking range of landing Aaron Judge last winter and Shohei Ohtani this one. But the bottom line is that they’re short on impact offensive talent. While Jung Hoo Lee and Patrick Bailey have the best overall projections, a lot of that is defensive value. Wilmer Flores‘ .265/.337/.446 triple-slash is the best on the roster, and even at Oracle Park, that’s rather underwhelming. And the awkward thing is that there really aren’t players available in free agency who can flip this script. The Giants can only upgrade the offense with a legitimate star, yet the only way left to get one is to trade for one.

The plus side is the floor is probably relatively high, as ZiPS sees a lot of adequacy in the current projected bench and sees many of the players who would currently be in Triple-A as solid role players, such as Casey Schmitt, David Villar, Wade Meckler, and Tyler Fitzgerald. The wheels probably won’t completely come off the apple cart, it’s just that the apple cart itself isn’t that fast.

It was nice to see Marco Luciano get back on track after his back problems, at least until a hamstring injury, but ZiPS only translates his 2023 as .189/.262/.339 at Double-A Richmond and .185/.266/.338 in his brief stint for Triple-A Sacramento, so the computer, even with some significant projected improvement, isn’t sold on him as the starting shortstop in 2024. Luis Matos at least gets a happier projection, one that sees significant improvement over his 2023 debut. He doesn’t have a clear path to projection and is easier to stash in the minors given his options remaining, but if his Triple-A performance is the equivalent of his MLB projection, he ought to push his way back into plate appearances during the season.

Pitchers

The problem with the hitters is similar to the pitchers in that they’re acceptable everywhere and disastrous nowhere, but don’t have a great deal of high-end upside. But I can’t deny that Logan Webb is the exception here; he has the highest ZiPS WAR projection of any pitcher in baseball. He’s certainly not the flashiest pitcher, and he’ll never spike huge strikeout rates, but his sinker and changeup are so cruel and his command so good that he doesn’t need to be a whiff god to be one of the most dominating, consistent pitchers in the majors.

As noted, ZiPS doesn’t have much to complain about, with the relatively low WAR totals being more due to low inning projections. Alex Cobb is perhaps the most interesting of the rest of the pack, having gotten his career back in recent years, though hip surgery makes his early-season availability a question mark. ZiPS also isn’t taken aback by Kyle Harrison’s home run rate in seven starts and overall sees the team with about a half-dozen potential starters with ERA+ figures between 90–100. It’s just not that exciting.

In the bullpen, ZiPS sees Camilo Doval as the standout performer with solid contributions from the Rogerses. As a full-time reliever, it also sees Ryan Walker with a 3.50 ERA, making him a fourth above-average option. ZiPS just isn’t very excited once you get past these four pitchers, and less positive than Steamer on Luke Jackson or Sean Hjelle (4.40 ERA projection in relief). It is kind of sweet on Devin Sweet, despite a poor cup of coffee in 2023.

Right now, the Giants look like an 80–85 win team. They may challenge the Padres, but as of this moment, they would need a lot to go their way to make the Dodgers nervous. Maybe they have a surprise left in them this winter, but I expect them to be one of the second-tier wild card contenders, though likely beating their 79 wins in 2023.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.