2024 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres

by
December 4, 2023
ZiPS Projections
2024 2023

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Diego Padres.

Batters

The Padres have an elite set of offensive talent in Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and the rest of the assorted cast. Then again, they need to be, because as the team is currently designed, the pitching is a massive sinkhole. Soto leads this group, and after an underwhelming Padres debut in 2022, he hit about as expected in 2023. Tatis Jr. turned out to be an excellent corner outfielder and stayed healthy, and while Machado had some ups and downs and will play some DH in 2024 due to his elbow injury, he’s unlikely to be a problem for the Friars.

The next tier of hitters is as good as the best players on some teams. Ha-Seong Kim made a great case for 2021 being his outlier season, not 2022. Xander Bogaerts still ended up with a season right about where reasonable expectations where, and Trent Grisham is at least average in center field, though he should be banned from bunting on his own volition. If the catcher pairing and Jake Cronenworth are the weakest parts of your lineup, you’re doing a pretty good job.

That being said, there are serious concerns on the horizon. Soto is a free agent at the end of the year, which is why he’s coming up a lot in trade talks. That free agency is quite short on offensive talent just increases the incentives for the Padres to trade him for pitching help and/or farm system restocking. A lot of the organization’s depth has been whittled away over recent years, so the team is susceptible to injuries, and while the farm system has bounced back a bit — it was pretty depleted from myriad trades — many of the best prospects aren’t likely to be options over the next few years. One exception is Jackson Merrill, though with Bogaerts and Machado signed to the end of time, it’s uncertain where he will break into the majors.

Pitchers

Here’s where there should be many furrowed brows. At one point a few years ago, the Padres were entering the season with seven or eight viable starting pitchers, but it’s hard to envision that being even close to the case this upcoming spring. Joe Musgrove is their best pitcher now, but that comes with a pretty significant “but” in the form of a shoulder injury that ended his season prematurely and kept him from participating in the team’s doomed last-gasp run to sneak into the playoffs. Yu Darvish, meanwhile, is showing signs of decline, which is unsurprising for a pitcher who will be 38 by the end of the next season.

It gets cloudier from here, to be kind. ZiPS projects only six Padres with an ERA+ above 100, and the two best of them, Blake Snell and Josh Hader, are no longer actually employed by the team. The rest of the rotation is a bevy of sixth starters, better suited to be Plan Bs and not the guys you actually want to start the season in the rotation. ZiPS is quite intrigued by Robby Snelling, but he’s realistically a year or so away, with Dylan Lesko a little farther.

It’s not hard to see why the Padres have been interested in trading Soto if it gets them pitching help. Unlike the vast majority of franchises in history, their collapsed cable deal likely means that there’s a lot of truth to the Padres being at their limits on how much they can invest in the team. With revenues uncertain and some ownership changes coming given the recent passing of Peter Seidler, it doesn’t strike me as likely that they’ll spike a $300 million payroll. And to sign the pitchers in free agency that they need, that’s probably what they would have to do with Soto on the roster.

ZiPS wants nothing to do with the bullpen. Enyel De Los Santos and Tom Cosgrove project as the best of the lot, but neither bring to the table what Hader did. The computer was always “in” on Robert Suarez, going back to the moment he was signed, but it’s a bit worried now, as an elbow injury and losing a third of your strikeout rate are inauspicious signs. Even if Suarez isn’t a problem, the rest of the bullpen looks to be, and it’s not just ZiPS being mean; Steamer is only slightly gentler on the Pads.

Right now, the Padres look like a high-80s win team with a decently high ceiling if they get some uncharacteristically good fortune in 2024. The future of this team remains complicated. Those answers will not be known when this article goes live.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 25 LF 660 521 99 144 26 1 30 97 133 109 11 4
Fernando Tatis Jr. R 25 RF 624 555 102 149 32 2 36 101 60 141 26 4
Manny Machado R 31 3B 603 540 80 145 28 1 26 92 55 110 6 2
Xander Bogaerts R 31 SS 625 556 80 153 30 1 17 69 57 113 12 1
Ha-Seong Kim R 28 2B 548 480 62 118 23 2 13 57 55 106 23 5
Trent Grisham L 27 CF 537 459 68 100 25 2 17 58 66 140 13 3
Jake Cronenworth L 30 1B 564 497 71 124 29 5 14 64 50 100 5 1
Gary Sánchez R 31 C 393 346 43 73 15 0 19 53 38 111 1 1
Eguy Rosario R 24 3B 443 403 52 96 22 2 11 51 33 110 9 6
Jackson Merrill L 21 SS 493 461 63 116 20 3 12 55 24 82 8 3
Graham Pauley L 23 3B 537 489 72 119 24 3 14 67 40 116 10 4
Jakob Marsee L 23 CF 540 464 80 102 15 3 11 56 64 120 22 5
Mason McCoy R 29 SS 472 429 53 89 19 4 9 48 36 152 13 2
Matthew Batten R 29 SS 488 436 57 98 16 1 7 44 46 132 16 4
Luis Campusano R 25 C 339 311 39 80 14 1 10 44 22 62 0 1
Ripken Reyes B 27 2B 463 385 58 87 14 3 3 55 30 85 12 4
Brett Sullivan L 30 C 368 334 42 82 19 2 6 36 27 56 5 2
Preston Tucker 터커 L 33 LF 270 233 33 54 12 1 7 31 30 58 1 1
Jantzen Witte R 34 3B 404 370 40 83 16 1 9 43 27 114 4 3
Matt Carpenter L 38 1B 234 194 25 41 11 1 8 28 34 69 1 1
Rougned Odor L 30 2B 354 316 42 67 16 2 12 43 30 91 3 2
Rangel Ravelo R 32 1B 261 223 32 57 10 0 6 32 29 45 0 1
Luis Liberato L 28 CF 342 302 41 68 15 2 8 37 32 97 5 3
Austin Nola R 34 C 270 235 26 56 11 0 4 25 26 49 0 1
Nelson Cruz R 43 DH 398 356 41 88 13 1 14 55 33 105 2 1
José Iglesias R 34 SS 376 354 40 92 22 1 4 37 15 58 2 2
Ji Man Choi L 33 1B 315 269 33 60 15 0 11 40 41 92 0 1
Garrett Cooper R 33 1B 407 367 38 90 18 1 13 54 33 117 0 1
Ray-Patrick Didder R 29 SS 396 349 45 71 14 1 7 44 35 120 15 5
Connor Hollis R 29 SS 388 345 47 81 16 2 4 38 33 95 9 5
Brandon Valenzuela B 23 C 369 332 33 69 13 1 6 34 33 109 1 1
Taylor Kohlwey L 29 LF 501 443 50 105 20 2 6 49 48 107 8 3
Daniel Johnson L 28 CF 467 427 50 99 20 3 13 57 33 126 11 4
Tim Lopes R 30 2B 461 417 55 94 19 2 8 46 38 125 17 5
Ben Gamel L 32 LF 372 325 40 75 17 1 8 39 41 97 3 3
Homer Bush R 22 LF 196 173 24 43 7 0 2 21 13 35 10 1
Tyler Wade L 29 SS 398 352 55 80 14 1 4 33 35 98 25 7
Nik McClaughry R 24 SS 108 93 9 22 5 2 1 11 8 19 1 1
Max Schrock L 29 2B 201 186 22 48 9 1 4 22 12 36 2 1
Michael De La Cruz B 31 C 331 300 35 68 13 1 5 32 27 72 3 1
José Azocar R 28 CF 403 376 44 89 15 3 6 39 19 101 18 7
Nathan Martorella L 23 1B 562 501 65 115 26 1 15 61 53 125 2 2
Jurickson Profar B 31 LF 514 450 59 106 25 1 10 49 53 89 4 1
Marcos Castañon R 25 3B 531 484 55 105 26 0 15 63 37 153 0 1
Tirso Ornelas L 24 RF 529 480 53 112 26 2 8 53 42 123 4 2
Korry Howell R 25 CF 320 286 41 54 11 3 6 34 24 124 12 3
Brandon Dixon R 32 1B 327 298 36 67 12 2 13 44 21 117 5 1
Chandler Seagle R 28 C 252 231 22 42 10 0 2 20 11 90 2 1
Evan Mendoza R 28 SS 355 324 36 72 10 0 2 26 26 81 8 2
Kervin Pichardo R 22 SS 316 281 31 56 9 0 8 35 25 106 4 1
Cal Mitchell L 25 LF 427 392 41 91 18 1 10 53 26 115 5 2
Colton Bender R 25 C 162 140 18 26 4 0 2 13 16 55 1 1
Yorman Rodriguez R 26 DH 362 340 37 86 13 1 8 39 16 65 3 1
Tucupita Marcano L 24 SS 389 353 43 83 15 2 6 38 29 70 7 4
Juan Zabala R 24 C 247 222 24 47 9 0 4 22 16 72 5 2
Joshua Mears R 23 RF 296 265 30 43 10 1 12 39 23 149 6 3
Jarryd Dale R 23 2B 442 397 42 78 16 2 3 34 37 140 12 5
Cole Cummings L 26 LF 398 356 38 72 14 2 9 44 30 127 2 1
Ethan Salas L 18 C 305 281 32 57 10 1 8 33 20 103 2 2
Grant Little R 26 LF 215 192 20 40 8 0 0 17 16 52 5 3
Pedro Castellanos R 26 1B 396 373 38 86 15 1 7 42 14 93 1 1
Jorge Oña R 27 DH 197 181 19 33 9 0 5 22 11 84 1 1
Michael Cantu R 28 C 146 133 10 21 3 0 1 9 13 63 0 1
Jose Sanabria R 19 RF 176 160 17 32 5 1 1 13 13 58 2 2
Robert Perez Jr. R 24 RF 521 471 55 102 18 2 15 69 32 175 1 1
Juan Fernandez R 25 3B 418 383 36 87 15 1 5 39 26 79 5 2
Tyler Robertson R 24 LF 377 332 50 67 10 3 8 43 17 133 15 3
Griffin Doersching R 25 1B 431 382 46 74 15 0 14 49 40 161 0 1
Carlos Luis L 24 DH 390 365 35 82 16 1 5 34 20 103 0 1
Nick Vogt R 23 RF 324 298 32 57 12 1 6 32 18 122 8 3
Brantley Bell R 29 2B 219 204 20 39 9 1 1 16 12 69 5 3
Lucas Dunn R 25 RF 482 430 50 82 15 3 5 43 40 160 8 5
Justin Farmer R 25 LF 417 374 41 67 14 1 5 32 38 160 12 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Juan Soto 660 .276 .424 .503 162 .226 .298 -3 5.8 .397 115
Fernando Tatis Jr. 624 .268 .342 .528 142 .259 .299 9 5.5 .367 107
Manny Machado 603 .269 .335 .469 125 .200 .295 5 4.1 .342 87
Xander Bogaerts 625 .275 .346 .424 117 .149 .319 0 4.1 .335 84
Ha-Seong Kim 548 .246 .327 .383 101 .138 .291 11 3.5 .312 67
Trent Grisham 537 .218 .323 .392 102 .174 .275 7 2.9 .315 62
Jake Cronenworth 564 .249 .329 .412 109 .163 .287 3 1.7 .321 69
Gary Sánchez 393 .211 .300 .419 101 .208 .250 -3 1.5 .311 44
Eguy Rosario 443 .238 .300 .385 93 .146 .301 4 1.4 .298 51
Jackson Merrill 493 .252 .290 .386 90 .134 .283 0 1.4 .292 54
Graham Pauley 537 .243 .308 .391 97 .147 .292 -2 1.3 .305 62
Jakob Marsee 540 .220 .325 .336 89 .116 .273 -2 1.3 .298 57
Mason McCoy 472 .207 .270 .333 70 .126 .299 9 1.3 .265 42
Matthew Batten 488 .225 .302 .314 76 .089 .306 4 1.2 .277 46
Luis Campusano 339 .257 .313 .405 102 .148 .293 -4 1.1 .312 40
Ripken Reyes 463 .226 .333 .301 82 .075 .283 -2 0.8 .293 43
Brett Sullivan 368 .246 .302 .368 89 .123 .279 -3 0.8 .291 39
Preston Tucker 270 .232 .330 .382 102 .150 .280 2 0.8 .314 30
Jantzen Witte 404 .224 .280 .346 77 .122 .300 6 0.7 .275 38
Matt Carpenter 234 .211 .338 .402 109 .191 .282 1 0.7 .326 27
Rougned Odor 354 .212 .294 .389 92 .177 .258 -1 0.7 .298 38
Rangel Ravelo 261 .256 .349 .381 107 .126 .297 0 0.7 .324 30
Luis Liberato 342 .225 .298 .368 88 .142 .305 1 0.6 .291 35
Austin Nola 270 .238 .321 .336 87 .098 .286 -2 0.6 .294 26
Nelson Cruz 398 .247 .317 .407 104 .160 .312 0 0.6 .311 47
José Iglesias 376 .260 .298 .362 86 .102 .301 -3 0.6 .288 39
Ji Man Choi 315 .223 .327 .401 106 .178 .295 -1 0.5 .319 36
Garrett Cooper 407 .245 .314 .406 103 .161 .325 -1 0.5 .314 47
Ray-Patrick Didder 396 .203 .295 .309 72 .106 .288 -1 0.5 .274 37
Connor Hollis 388 .235 .311 .328 82 .093 .313 -3 0.5 .286 39
Brandon Valenzuela 369 .208 .285 .307 68 .099 .290 2 0.4 .266 30
Taylor Kohlwey 501 .237 .317 .332 85 .095 .300 3 0.4 .290 50
Daniel Johnson 467 .232 .291 .384 90 .152 .299 -6 0.4 .293 52
Tim Lopes 461 .225 .293 .338 79 .113 .303 -2 0.3 .279 47
Ben Gamel 372 .231 .321 .363 94 .132 .305 -1 0.3 .303 40
Homer Bush 196 .249 .321 .324 84 .075 .301 1 0.3 .291 20
Tyler Wade 398 .227 .304 .307 74 .080 .304 -4 0.3 .275 41
Nik McClaughry 108 .237 .321 .366 95 .129 .288 -1 0.3 .304 12
Max Schrock 201 .258 .308 .382 95 .124 .301 -3 0.3 .302 23
Michael De La Cruz 331 .227 .290 .327 75 .100 .283 -2 0.2 .274 29
José Azocar 403 .237 .278 .340 74 .104 .309 1 0.2 .270 42
Nathan Martorella 562 .230 .304 .375 92 .146 .277 0 0.2 .298 58
Jurickson Profar 514 .236 .322 .362 94 .127 .274 -5 0.1 .304 54
Marcos Castañon 531 .217 .281 .364 81 .147 .285 -3 0.1 .281 50
Tirso Ornelas 529 .233 .297 .346 82 .113 .298 4 0.1 .283 51
Korry Howell 320 .189 .270 .311 65 .122 .308 3 0.1 .260 28
Brandon Dixon 327 .225 .281 .409 93 .185 .321 -1 0.0 .297 36
Chandler Seagle 252 .182 .231 .251 37 .069 .288 8 0.0 .217 14
Evan Mendoza 355 .222 .280 .272 58 .049 .290 2 -0.1 .249 27
Kervin Pichardo 316 .199 .280 .317 69 .117 .287 -4 -0.2 .268 26
Cal Mitchell 427 .232 .286 .360 82 .128 .303 0 -0.2 .283 42
Colton Bender 162 .186 .277 .257 53 .071 .289 -1 -0.2 .247 11
Yorman Rodriguez 362 .253 .288 .368 85 .115 .292 0 -0.3 .285 37
Tucupita Marcano 389 .235 .295 .340 80 .105 .278 -9 -0.3 .281 39
Juan Zabala 247 .212 .270 .306 63 .095 .295 -4 -0.4 .257 20
Joshua Mears 296 .162 .247 .343 65 .181 .298 3 -0.4 .259 25
Jarryd Dale 442 .196 .270 .270 54 .073 .295 4 -0.5 .246 33
Cole Cummings 398 .202 .279 .329 72 .126 .286 1 -0.6 .270 33
Ethan Salas 305 .203 .259 .331 66 .128 .288 -6 -0.7 .259 25
Grant Little 215 .208 .285 .250 54 .042 .286 1 -0.7 .248 16
Pedro Castellanos 396 .231 .270 .332 70 .102 .289 3 -0.7 .264 34
Jorge Oña 197 .182 .249 .315 59 .133 .304 0 -0.8 .250 15
Michael Cantu 146 .158 .233 .203 26 .045 .290 -2 -0.9 .204 7
Jose Sanabria 176 .200 .267 .263 52 .063 .307 -2 -1.0 .241 12
Robert Perez Jr. 521 .217 .284 .359 81 .142 .310 -7 -1.1 .283 49
Juan Fernandez 418 .227 .288 .311 70 .084 .274 -10 -1.2 .268 36
Tyler Robertson 377 .202 .262 .322 65 .120 .309 -4 -1.2 .258 32
Griffin Doersching 431 .194 .278 .343 75 .149 .290 -4 -1.2 .274 37
Carlos Luis 390 .225 .267 .315 65 .090 .300 0 -1.3 .256 31
Nick Vogt 324 .191 .246 .299 54 .107 .300 -1 -1.4 .241 25
Brantley Bell 219 .191 .242 .260 43 .069 .284 -5 -1.4 .223 15
Lucas Dunn 482 .191 .272 .274 56 .084 .291 1 -1.6 .248 36
Justin Farmer 417 .179 .259 .262 49 .083 .297 1 -1.6 .238 29

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Juan Soto Rusty Staub Mel Ott Carl Yastrzemski
Fernando Tatis Jr. Cesar Cedeno Frank Robinson Dave Winfield
Manny Machado Mike Lowell Aramis Ramirez Ken Keltner
Xander Bogaerts Dave Bancroft Edgar Renteria Roberto Alomar
Ha-Seong Kim Eddie Moore Dan Rohn Bump Wills
Trent Grisham Rick Miller Gary Geiger Adolfo Phillips
Jake Cronenworth Bob Burda Dustin Ackley Willie Upshaw
Gary Sánchez Gus Triandos Lloyd McClendon Jerry Keller
Eguy Rosario Joel Youngblood Nate Oliver Frank Bolling
Jackson Merrill Daniel Castro Cesar Bernhardt Bill Eveline
Graham Pauley Jerry Royster Howard Freigau Luis Valbuena
Jakob Marsee Greg Jemison James Bottoms Roy Hartless
Mason McCoy Chris Basak Pedro Florimón Scott Pratt
Matthew Batten Zach Penprase Eddy Alvarez Shane Halter
Luis Campusano Taylor Davis Joe Azcue Milt May
Ripken Reyes Jon Sbrocco John Finn Callix Crabbe
Brett Sullivan Tom Lampkin Birdie Tebbetts Rick Sweet
Preston Tucker Phil Stephenson Dave Sax Chris Coghlan
Jantzen Witte Steve Springer Tony Cuccinello Pep Young
Matt Carpenter Carlos Pena Duke Snider Mickey Tettleton
Rougned Odor Ray Mack Ryan Flaherty Chuck Goggin
Rangel Ravelo Scott Hatteberg Danny Heep Mark Sweeney
Luis Liberato Skye Bolt Brian Goodwin Joe Wallis
Austin Nola Alberto Castillo Bob Oldis Michael LaValliere
Nelson Cruz Joe Altobelli Todd Frazier Orlando Cepeda
José Iglesias Alcides Escobar Jack Wilson Bill Russell
Ji Man Choi Tony Solaita Brian Daubach Pete Ward
Garrett Cooper Chris Richard Cleon Jones Geoff Jenkins
Ray-Patrick Didder Anthony Granato Joe Koppe Bobby Meacham
Connor Hollis Jon Berti Everth Cabrera Zach Penprase
Brandon Valenzuela Chris Cannizzaro Lance Rice Scott Sulprizio
Taylor Kohlwey Dustin Delucchi Nate Orf Johnny Watwood
Daniel Johnson Jason Repko Scott Cousins Fred Valentine
Tim Lopes Frank Verdi Shane Halter Tony Piet
Ben Gamel Mike Tauchman Brian Goodwin Ryan Spilborghs
Homer Bush Jason Conti Ender Chavez Joe Trippy
Tyler Wade Willie Harris Andrew Romine Wayne Tolleson
Nik McClaughry Ashley Ponce Aaron Olivas Gabriel Bracamonte
Max Schrock Corban Joseph John Ryan Ehire Adrianza
Michael De La Cruz Buck Rodgers Al Spohrer Gerald Laird
José Azocar Pookie Bernstine Dairon Blanco Manny Martinez마르티네스
Nathan Martorella Charlie Leonard Richard Green Daniel Paolini
Jurickson Profar Andre David Kenny Baker Jason Heyward
Marcos Castañon Mike Nipper Mike Ross Ryan Gripp
Tirso Ornelas Donald Davis Conor Jackson Mike Lockwood
Korry Howell Josh Flores Steve Martin Tanner English
Brandon Dixon Tony Thomas Ivan Murrell Tito Landrum
Chandler Seagle Josh Lex Keith Castillo Reagan Buckley
Evan Mendoza Tommy Watkins Mike Torres Niuman Romero
Kervin Pichardo Harry Land Brian Wilson Omar Bramasco
Cal Mitchell Dan Stryffeler Les Filkins William Dennis
Colton Bender Mike Reeves Josh Emmerick Jason Jacobs
Yorman Rodriguez Dean Decillis Yariel Gonzalez Lance Niekro
Tucupita Marcano Tom Krause Mitch Simons Kevin Stocker
Juan Zabala Carlos Mota German Melendez Charles Green
Joshua Mears Gorman Thomas Corey Pointer Eli Ben
Jarryd Dale Buddy Biancalana Mike Brocki Trent Durrington
Cole Cummings Connor Panas Greg Baker Gary Purcell
Ethan Salas Ralph DiMeglio Ron Henry Larry Baughman
Grant Little Robert Weigle Jon Schwind Caleb Curry
Pedro Castellanos Tom Brassil Ray Navarrete Marc Tepper
Jorge Oña Doug Thennis Mark Tracy Lanny Williams
Michael Cantu Jeff Waldron J.C. Boscan John Beuerlein
Jose Sanabria Brahiam Maldonado Ruben Mora Virgil Tieken
Robert Perez Jr. Thomas Hallums Jose Barrios George Kazmarek
Juan Fernandez Osvaldo Martínez Rob Belloir Pedro Lopez
Tyler Robertson Michael Kirkpatrick Luigi Rodriguez Juan Hernaiz
Griffin Doersching Joe Citari Justin Drizos Viosergy Rosa
Carlos Luis Ivy Griffin Jaime Ortiz Clay King
Nick Vogt Preston Mattingly Mel Pettigrew Larue Baber
Brantley Bell Tony Torres Donaldo Mendez Larry Burright
Lucas Dunn Warren Arrington Mark Young Tony Russell
Justin Farmer Shawn Payne Darrick Duke Jim Essian

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Juan Soto .302 .459 .560 183 7.5 .253 .397 .453 143 4.4
Fernando Tatis Jr. .295 .367 .593 167 7.4 .244 .313 .467 120 3.8
Manny Machado .295 .362 .523 147 5.7 .243 .307 .422 106 2.6
Xander Bogaerts .300 .371 .469 135 5.5 .249 .318 .382 99 2.6
Ha-Seong Kim .272 .353 .428 119 4.9 .221 .300 .337 84 2.2
Trent Grisham .240 .346 .445 121 4.1 .194 .297 .346 85 1.6
Jake Cronenworth .273 .351 .460 129 3.0 .224 .304 .365 90 0.2
Gary Sánchez .236 .328 .485 125 2.6 .183 .273 .359 80 0.5
Eguy Rosario .263 .326 .433 113 2.6 .216 .277 .342 76 0.5
Jackson Merrill .279 .315 .434 110 2.7 .228 .267 .346 73 0.3
Graham Pauley .267 .330 .445 114 2.5 .220 .283 .354 79 0.2
Jakob Marsee .242 .350 .381 107 2.5 .195 .300 .299 72 0.2
Mason McCoy .235 .298 .385 92 2.6 .182 .244 .293 54 0.3
Matthew Batten .254 .328 .359 91 2.3 .200 .275 .274 56 0.0
Luis Campusano .286 .341 .461 126 2.1 .232 .290 .357 85 0.5
Ripken Reyes .248 .356 .334 97 1.6 .201 .309 .267 66 -0.1
Brett Sullivan .276 .333 .418 109 1.8 .217 .273 .323 67 -0.2
Preston Tucker .257 .358 .433 123 1.4 .205 .303 .329 79 0.0
Jantzen Witte .254 .308 .390 96 1.7 .200 .257 .302 59 -0.1
Matt Carpenter .237 .372 .463 130 1.4 .185 .307 .339 84 0.0
Rougned Odor .239 .318 .443 112 1.6 .185 .268 .338 72 -0.1
Rangel Ravelo .285 .375 .428 126 1.3 .226 .319 .335 89 0.0
Luis Liberato .248 .325 .412 107 1.4 .199 .267 .324 68 -0.2
Austin Nola .269 .351 .379 106 1.3 .208 .295 .290 67 0.0
Nelson Cruz .273 .345 .459 123 1.6 .219 .289 .359 85 -0.4
José Iglesias .287 .323 .395 102 1.3 .233 .272 .319 67 -0.3
Ji Man Choi .245 .352 .451 125 1.2 .197 .302 .352 86 -0.2
Garrett Cooper .272 .339 .455 120 1.4 .218 .285 .353 82 -0.5
Ray-Patrick Didder .230 .326 .363 93 1.6 .178 .270 .269 55 -0.3
Connor Hollis .263 .336 .368 100 1.3 .206 .282 .285 63 -0.5
Brandon Valenzuela .240 .312 .361 91 1.5 .180 .255 .264 50 -0.4
Taylor Kohlwey .264 .343 .369 101 1.4 .215 .295 .293 68 -0.7
Daniel Johnson .257 .315 .437 110 1.5 .206 .261 .337 70 -0.9
Tim Lopes .248 .322 .380 97 1.4 .197 .266 .294 60 -0.9
Ben Gamel .260 .348 .412 113 1.2 .205 .291 .312 73 -0.7
Homer Bush .277 .349 .358 100 0.7 .221 .296 .289 69 -0.2
Tyler Wade .255 .329 .348 91 1.2 .204 .281 .269 57 -0.7
Nik McClaughry .274 .355 .431 121 0.6 .202 .286 .309 69 -0.1
Max Schrock .288 .337 .434 116 0.8 .227 .276 .337 73 -0.3
Michael De La Cruz .258 .327 .375 96 1.1 .200 .262 .279 55 -0.7
José Azocar .261 .301 .384 93 1.1 .211 .250 .298 57 -0.8
Nathan Martorella .260 .331 .421 113 1.7 .204 .278 .325 73 -1.2
Jurickson Profar .259 .350 .408 114 1.4 .214 .299 .321 77 -1.0
Marcos Castañon .243 .306 .409 98 1.2 .194 .256 .318 63 -1.1
Tirso Ornelas .262 .325 .389 102 1.4 .211 .275 .308 68 -0.9
Korry Howell .219 .300 .363 86 1.0 .160 .245 .269 48 -0.7
Brandon Dixon .255 .306 .466 114 0.8 .199 .253 .353 73 -0.8
Chandler Seagle .212 .262 .294 57 0.6 .154 .202 .215 18 -0.7
Evan Mendoza .244 .306 .299 72 0.7 .196 .258 .240 45 -0.7
Kervin Pichardo .230 .313 .386 97 0.9 .171 .251 .271 50 -0.9
Cal Mitchell .254 .308 .405 99 0.7 .207 .259 .319 64 -1.2
Colton Bender .213 .309 .307 75 0.2 .156 .246 .218 34 -0.7
Yorman Rodriguez .275 .311 .415 103 0.6 .228 .263 .326 67 -1.1
Tucupita Marcano .263 .323 .382 99 0.7 .212 .271 .300 63 -1.1
Juan Zabala .243 .301 .362 86 0.3 .181 .243 .267 46 -1.0
Joshua Mears .191 .276 .411 89 0.4 .130 .217 .283 41 -1.4
Jarryd Dale .220 .293 .310 70 0.4 .167 .245 .230 37 -1.5
Cole Cummings .226 .304 .376 92 0.4 .180 .253 .283 56 -1.4
Ethan Salas .234 .291 .390 90 0.3 .175 .231 .275 44 -1.5
Grant Little .236 .312 .282 69 -0.3 .184 .259 .218 38 -1.2
Pedro Castellanos .258 .296 .387 92 0.4 .205 .245 .295 53 -1.7
Jorge Oña .207 .271 .363 77 -0.3 .158 .223 .265 37 -1.3
Michael Cantu .190 .273 .243 47 -0.5 .131 .199 .167 6 -1.3
Jose Sanabria .227 .296 .301 70 -0.5 .174 .240 .226 35 -1.3
Robert Perez Jr. .241 .306 .404 99 0.1 .192 .261 .315 63 -2.2
Juan Fernandez .255 .313 .353 90 -0.1 .204 .264 .276 54 -2.0
Tyler Robertson .225 .286 .369 83 -0.4 .176 .238 .279 48 -2.0
Griffin Doersching .221 .304 .391 93 -0.2 .168 .252 .298 56 -2.2
Carlos Luis .247 .292 .352 82 -0.5 .200 .242 .278 48 -2.2
Nick Vogt .220 .275 .339 73 -0.6 .168 .222 .260 38 -2.1
Brantley Bell .218 .268 .299 61 -0.9 .167 .217 .224 26 -1.9
Lucas Dunn .217 .299 .313 73 -0.6 .164 .249 .237 39 -2.7
Justin Farmer .207 .286 .299 67 -0.7 .155 .233 .222 32 -2.6

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Juan Soto .262 .396 .451 .283 .437 .527
Fernando Tatis Jr. .275 .360 .534 .265 .333 .525
Manny Machado .272 .346 .462 .267 .330 .471
Xander Bogaerts .281 .357 .431 .273 .341 .422
Ha-Seong Kim .257 .345 .411 .239 .317 .367
Trent Grisham .221 .319 .385 .217 .324 .395
Jake Cronenworth .242 .321 .403 .253 .332 .417
Gary Sánchez .211 .304 .422 .211 .299 .418
Eguy Rosario .248 .317 .406 .229 .283 .363
Jackson Merrill .245 .283 .364 .255 .293 .396
Graham Pauley .232 .298 .377 .248 .312 .396
Jakob Marsee .209 .315 .326 .224 .329 .340
Mason McCoy .209 .279 .333 .206 .262 .333
Matthew Batten .241 .324 .340 .212 .284 .294
Luis Campusano .265 .327 .434 .251 .302 .383
Ripken Reyes .217 .329 .290 .231 .334 .308
Brett Sullivan .229 .285 .344 .256 .313 .384
Preston Tucker .226 .329 .371 .234 .330 .386
Jantzen Witte .229 .291 .363 .221 .273 .333
Matt Carpenter .208 .317 .377 .213 .345 .411
Rougned Odor .209 .301 .374 .213 .291 .396
Rangel Ravelo .261 .365 .375 .252 .338 .385
Luis Liberato .216 .287 .353 .231 .305 .376
Austin Nola .244 .330 .367 .234 .315 .317
Nelson Cruz .259 .336 .407 .242 .308 .407
José Iglesias .264 .299 .355 .258 .297 .365
Ji Man Choi .203 .304 .356 .229 .333 .414
Garrett Cooper .252 .321 .423 .242 .311 .398
Ray-Patrick Didder .211 .302 .322 .198 .290 .299
Connor Hollis .245 .324 .351 .227 .301 .309
Brandon Valenzuela .209 .290 .288 .207 .280 .321
Taylor Kohlwey .231 .311 .325 .240 .321 .336
Daniel Johnson .220 .281 .374 .237 .295 .388
Tim Lopes .229 .302 .352 .223 .286 .328
Ben Gamel .217 .309 .337 .236 .325 .372
Homer Bush .250 .325 .333 .248 .319 .317
Tyler Wade .219 .292 .281 .230 .308 .316
Nik McClaughry .237 .326 .342 .236 .317 .382
Max Schrock .245 .298 .340 .263 .313 .398
Michael De La Cruz .220 .282 .320 .230 .294 .330
José Azocar .237 .281 .358 .236 .274 .325
Nathan Martorella .226 .301 .365 .231 .306 .379
Jurickson Profar .235 .327 .360 .236 .319 .363
Marcos Castañon .225 .300 .393 .212 .267 .345
Tirso Ornelas .220 .282 .314 .240 .305 .361
Korry Howell .194 .275 .339 .185 .265 .290
Brandon Dixon .232 .293 .429 .220 .275 .398
Chandler Seagle .184 .238 .255 .180 .225 .248
Evan Mendoza .231 .299 .288 .213 .260 .256
Kervin Pichardo .202 .289 .316 .198 .274 .317
Cal Mitchell .224 .276 .336 .236 .292 .372
Colton Bender .193 .303 .281 .181 .258 .241
Yorman Rodriguez .260 .303 .390 .247 .276 .349
Tucupita Marcano .226 .286 .330 .239 .300 .345
Juan Zabala .222 .293 .333 .205 .254 .288
Joshua Mears .164 .254 .353 .161 .241 .336
Jarryd Dale .197 .279 .275 .196 .260 .263
Cole Cummings .193 .273 .325 .207 .281 .331
Ethan Salas .195 .250 .312 .206 .262 .338
Grant Little .215 .295 .253 .204 .278 .248
Pedro Castellanos .238 .276 .350 .225 .265 .319
Jorge Oña .192 .267 .321 .175 .234 .311
Michael Cantu .158 .238 .175 .158 .229 .224
Jose Sanabria .197 .274 .258 .202 .262 .266
Robert Perez Jr. .224 .291 .370 .211 .279 .351
Juan Fernandez .228 .295 .316 .227 .283 .307
Tyler Robertson .208 .265 .328 .198 .260 .319
Griffin Doersching .192 .287 .336 .195 .273 .347
Carlos Luis .212 .260 .280 .231 .270 .332
Nick Vogt .191 .250 .287 .191 .244 .306
Brantley Bell .198 .253 .272 .187 .235 .252
Lucas Dunn .197 .284 .292 .187 .264 .262
Justin Farmer .185 .275 .293 .175 .247 .240

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Blake Snell L 31 13 8 3.37 29 29 160.3 125 60 18 79 204
Joe Musgrove R 31 10 5 3.38 24 24 141.3 127 53 16 34 133
Yu Darvish R 37 10 9 3.96 24 24 145.3 128 64 19 38 140
Seth Lugo R 34 7 5 4.08 29 20 119.0 115 54 18 36 108
Michael Wacha R 32 7 7 4.15 23 22 119.3 113 55 19 36 106
Josh Hader L 30 4 2 3.09 59 0 55.3 37 19 7 23 80
Matt Waldron R 27 7 6 4.49 24 20 116.3 116 58 17 35 96
Adam Mazur R 23 5 4 4.41 22 17 87.7 86 43 12 33 74
Robby Snelling L 20 7 7 4.58 22 22 98.3 95 50 13 40 77
Pedro Avila R 27 4 5 4.53 30 18 95.3 89 48 12 45 86
Glenn Otto R 28 5 6 4.62 22 18 87.7 79 45 12 39 87
Jairo Iriarte R 22 4 4 4.59 25 19 86.3 76 44 12 43 89
Enyel De Los Santos R 28 4 3 3.94 61 2 64.0 54 28 8 22 63
Ryan Bergert R 24 5 5 4.68 22 20 92.3 90 48 13 40 75
Jose Espada R 27 2 2 4.48 30 8 66.3 60 33 10 35 70
Jared Kollar R 25 4 4 4.78 18 16 75.3 78 40 11 26 50
Efrain Contreras R 24 5 6 4.82 28 16 80.3 78 43 12 37 74
Tom Cosgrove L 28 2 2 4.02 56 1 53.7 45 24 7 24 57
Adrian Morejon L 25 2 2 4.24 30 5 40.3 38 19 6 15 39
Jay Groome L 25 6 7 4.95 27 26 127.3 120 70 16 71 110
Alek Jacob R 26 2 1 4.15 31 1 43.3 39 20 6 15 43
Drew Carlton R 28 3 4 4.22 36 1 49.0 46 23 7 17 44
Steven Wilson R 29 2 2 4.09 48 0 50.7 41 23 7 24 56
Rich Hill L 44 7 9 4.96 26 23 119.7 121 66 22 41 98
Reiss Knehr R 27 3 4 4.85 26 10 68.7 64 37 9 34 61
Moises Lugo R 25 3 4 4.50 37 4 60.0 52 30 8 34 66
Ray Kerr L 29 3 4 4.31 49 1 54.3 48 26 8 29 64
Daniel Camarena L 31 3 5 5.01 21 14 64.7 74 36 10 18 39
Gabe Mosser R 28 3 5 5.06 15 11 53.3 59 30 9 18 36
Logan Gillaspie R 27 4 3 4.42 41 2 53.0 54 26 7 18 44
Anderson Espinoza R 26 6 7 5.11 24 23 105.7 103 60 15 56 88
Robert Suarez R 33 3 4 4.43 40 1 40.7 34 20 6 18 41
Jeremiah Estrada R 25 1 2 4.29 36 0 42.0 35 20 6 24 51
Edwuin Bencomo R 25 3 4 4.86 28 5 63.0 67 34 9 17 39
Aaron Leasher L 28 3 5 5.09 25 10 63.7 65 36 9 36 50
Aaron Brooks 브룩스 R 34 3 4 4.88 29 6 59.0 63 32 9 19 42
Bobby Milacki R 27 5 5 4.77 28 4 66.0 69 35 10 24 48
Lake Bachar R 29 3 4 4.80 32 4 60.0 61 32 9 27 52
Nick Hernandez R 29 3 3 4.50 43 0 54.0 47 27 7 25 54
Duncan Snider R 26 2 2 5.44 12 10 43.0 45 26 6 25 29
Nolan Watson R 27 4 5 5.20 24 18 98.7 107 57 14 44 59
Jason Blanchard L 27 2 1 4.70 30 1 46.0 45 24 7 23 44
Luis García R 37 2 3 4.62 50 0 48.7 48 25 7 22 46
Gabe Morales L 25 2 2 5.29 20 5 49.3 44 29 7 40 53
Brian Gonzalez L 28 1 2 5.46 23 2 31.3 30 19 5 20 29
Angel Sánchez R 34 1 1 5.36 21 6 43.7 45 26 7 23 35
Nick Duron R 28 3 4 5.01 32 0 32.3 30 18 5 23 33
Jose Quezada R 28 1 2 5.14 23 0 28.0 27 16 4 15 24
Sean Poppen R 30 2 3 4.85 41 2 55.7 58 30 8 23 44
Mason Fox R 27 2 3 4.95 25 0 36.3 34 20 5 22 36
Seth Mayberry R 24 3 4 4.81 32 0 43.0 40 23 6 24 43
Tim Hill L 34 2 3 5.10 47 0 42.3 45 24 6 13 27
Kevin Kopps R 27 3 3 4.82 41 1 61.7 59 33 8 32 55
Raul Brito R 27 3 4 4.93 26 0 49.3 47 27 7 27 46
James Bourque R 30 1 2 6.08 19 0 23.7 22 16 4 21 27
Domingo Tapia R 32 2 3 5.31 39 0 42.3 41 25 6 27 36
Jake Sanchez R 34 3 3 5.03 37 0 48.3 49 27 8 25 42
Michel Baez R 28 2 3 5.40 32 1 40.0 40 24 6 23 31
Henry Henry R 25 2 4 5.40 32 4 55.0 57 33 8 35 39
Eric Hanhold R 30 2 3 5.25 42 0 48.0 47 28 7 29 42
Justin Lopez R 24 1 3 5.59 33 0 38.7 38 24 6 25 30
Sean Reynolds R 26 2 2 5.34 47 0 55.7 52 33 8 38 51

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Blake Snell 160.3 11.5 4.4 1.0 11.5% 29.7% .285 120 3.70 84 3.2
Joe Musgrove 141.3 8.5 2.2 1.0 5.9% 23.0% .283 119 3.82 84 2.8
Yu Darvish 145.3 8.7 2.4 1.2 6.4% 23.5% .276 102 4.00 98 1.9
Seth Lugo 119.0 8.2 2.7 1.4 7.2% 21.5% .287 99 4.39 101 1.3
Michael Wacha 119.3 8.0 2.7 1.4 7.2% 21.1% .279 97 4.53 103 1.3
Josh Hader 55.3 13.0 3.7 1.1 10.2% 35.4% .265 130 3.42 77 1.0
Matt Waldron 116.3 7.4 2.7 1.3 7.1% 19.4% .289 90 4.54 111 0.8
Adam Mazur 87.7 7.6 3.4 1.2 8.7% 19.6% .288 91 4.48 110 0.6
Robby Snelling 98.3 7.0 3.7 1.2 9.4% 18.2% .280 88 4.66 114 0.6
Pedro Avila 95.3 8.1 4.2 1.1 10.7% 20.5% .285 89 4.76 112 0.6
Glenn Otto 87.7 8.9 4.0 1.2 10.3% 23.0% .283 87 4.59 115 0.5
Jairo Iriarte 86.3 9.3 4.5 1.3 11.4% 23.7% .281 88 4.84 114 0.4
Enyel De Los Santos 64.0 8.9 3.1 1.1 8.2% 23.6% .269 102 4.08 98 0.4
Ryan Bergert 92.3 7.3 3.9 1.3 9.9% 18.6% .283 86 4.83 116 0.4
Jose Espada 66.3 9.5 4.7 1.4 12.0% 24.0% .286 90 4.78 111 0.3
Jared Kollar 75.3 6.0 3.1 1.3 8.0% 15.3% .283 84 4.98 119 0.2
Efrain Contreras 80.3 8.3 4.1 1.3 10.4% 20.8% .291 84 4.92 120 0.2
Tom Cosgrove 53.7 9.6 4.0 1.2 10.5% 24.9% .275 100 4.39 100 0.2
Adrian Morejon 40.3 8.7 3.3 1.3 8.7% 22.5% .288 95 4.52 105 0.2
Jay Groome 127.3 7.8 5.0 1.1 12.4% 19.3% .283 81 5.00 123 0.2
Alek Jacob 43.3 8.9 3.1 1.2 8.2% 23.6% .282 97 4.46 103 0.2
Drew Carlton 49.0 8.1 3.1 1.3 8.2% 21.2% .283 95 4.42 105 0.1
Steven Wilson 50.7 9.9 4.3 1.2 11.1% 25.9% .268 99 4.44 101 0.1
Rich Hill 119.7 7.4 3.1 1.7 8.0% 19.1% .282 81 5.24 123 0.1
Reiss Knehr 68.7 8.0 4.5 1.2 11.2% 20.1% .282 83 4.89 120 0.1
Moises Lugo 60.0 9.9 5.1 1.2 12.7% 24.7% .286 90 4.69 112 0.1
Ray Kerr 54.3 10.6 4.8 1.3 12.0% 26.6% .294 94 4.58 107 0.0
Daniel Camarena 64.7 5.4 2.5 1.4 6.3% 13.7% .299 80 5.03 124 0.0
Gabe Mosser 53.3 6.1 3.0 1.5 7.6% 15.3% .294 80 5.22 126 0.0
Logan Gillaspie 53.0 7.5 3.1 1.2 7.9% 19.2% .297 91 4.50 110 0.0
Anderson Espinoza 105.7 7.5 4.8 1.3 11.8% 18.5% .285 79 5.31 127 0.0
Robert Suarez 40.7 9.1 4.0 1.3 10.5% 23.8% .264 91 4.71 110 0.0
Jeremiah Estrada 42.0 10.9 5.1 1.3 12.9% 27.4% .287 94 4.54 106 -0.1
Edwuin Bencomo 63.0 5.6 2.4 1.3 6.2% 14.3% .286 83 4.92 121 -0.1
Aaron Leasher 63.7 7.1 5.1 1.3 12.4% 17.2% .292 79 5.41 126 -0.1
Aaron Brooks 59.0 6.4 2.9 1.4 7.5% 16.5% .293 83 4.93 121 -0.1
Bobby Milacki 66.0 6.5 3.3 1.4 8.3% 16.6% .289 84 5.04 118 -0.1
Lake Bachar 60.0 7.8 4.1 1.4 10.0% 19.3% .295 84 4.97 119 -0.1
Nick Hernandez 54.0 9.0 4.2 1.2 10.8% 23.4% .278 90 4.50 112 -0.2
Duncan Snider 43.0 6.1 5.2 1.3 12.6% 14.6% .287 74 5.67 135 -0.2
Nolan Watson 98.7 5.4 4.0 1.3 10.0% 13.3% .289 77 5.52 129 -0.2
Jason Blanchard 46.0 8.6 4.5 1.4 11.2% 21.5% .295 86 4.95 117 -0.3
Luis García 48.7 8.5 4.1 1.3 10.1% 21.1% .297 87 4.84 115 -0.3
Gabe Morales 49.3 9.7 7.3 1.3 17.0% 22.6% .287 76 5.51 131 -0.3
Brian Gonzalez 31.3 8.3 5.7 1.4 13.9% 20.1% .284 74 5.68 135 -0.3
Angel Sánchez 43.7 7.2 4.7 1.4 11.4% 17.4% .290 75 5.52 133 -0.3
Nick Duron 32.3 9.2 6.4 1.4 15.2% 21.9% .287 80 5.45 124 -0.3
Jose Quezada 28.0 7.7 4.8 1.3 11.9% 19.0% .284 78 5.33 128 -0.3
Sean Poppen 55.7 7.1 3.7 1.3 9.3% 17.8% .296 83 5.05 120 -0.4
Mason Fox 36.3 8.9 5.4 1.2 13.3% 21.8% .290 81 4.96 123 -0.4
Seth Mayberry 43.0 9.0 5.0 1.3 12.4% 22.3% .291 84 5.02 120 -0.4
Tim Hill 42.3 5.7 2.8 1.3 7.1% 14.8% .287 79 5.03 127 -0.4
Kevin Kopps 61.7 8.0 4.7 1.2 11.4% 19.6% .288 84 5.01 120 -0.4
Raul Brito 49.3 8.4 4.9 1.3 12.0% 20.4% .288 82 5.18 122 -0.5
James Bourque 23.7 10.3 8.0 1.5 17.9% 23.1% .295 66 6.09 151 -0.5
Domingo Tapia 42.3 7.7 5.7 1.3 13.8% 18.5% .285 76 5.45 132 -0.5
Jake Sanchez 48.3 7.8 4.7 1.5 11.6% 19.5% .293 80 5.34 125 -0.5
Michel Baez 40.0 7.0 5.2 1.4 12.4% 16.7% .283 75 5.83 134 -0.6
Henry Henry 55.0 6.4 5.7 1.3 13.6% 15.1% .287 75 5.80 134 -0.6
Eric Hanhold 48.0 7.9 5.4 1.3 12.9% 18.8% .288 77 5.40 130 -0.6
Justin Lopez 38.7 7.0 5.8 1.4 14.1% 16.9% .278 72 5.97 139 -0.7
Sean Reynolds 55.7 8.2 6.1 1.3 14.8% 19.8% .282 75 5.55 132 -0.8

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Blake Snell Bob Veale Mark Langston Al Leiter
Joe Musgrove Doug Drabek Roy Oswalt Joaquin Andujar
Yu Darvish Gaylord Perry Jim Bunning Early Wynn
Seth Lugo Steve Parris Rolando Arrojo Roy Oswalt
Michael Wacha Merrill Kelly 켈리 Danny Darwin Marty Pattin
Josh Hader Jesse Orosco Andrew Miller Al Holland
Matt Waldron Daniel Mengden Terry Doyle Jason Berken
Adam Mazur Ronald Bloodworth Tim Sommer Sam Marsonek
Robby Snelling Chuck Ross Kenny Esposito Jesse Hudson
Pedro Avila Tyler Thornburg Joe Sparma Thomas Arruda
Glenn Otto Bennie Daniels Pete Broberg Roberto Rodriguez
Jairo Iriarte Chester Gunter Paul Cacciatore Tom Griffin
Enyel De Los Santos Juan Carlos Oviedo Chris Devenski Jim Ray
Ryan Bergert Ken Cloude Rick Siebert Steve Monson
Jose Espada Scott Cassidy Brian Reith Rocky Cherry
Jared Kollar Brooks Hall Duke von Schamann Hiram Burgos
Efrain Contreras Alex Koronis Charles Seymour Carl Winton
Tom Cosgrove Robby Scott Gary Wayne Craig Breslow
Adrian Morejon Brian Currie Reese Lambert Hamilton Bennett
Jay Groome Shawn Morimando Henry Owens Brian O’Connor
Alek Jacob Matt Whiteside Jonathan Aro Scott Winchester
Drew Carlton Mickey Sinks Jay Aldrich Ryan Doolittle
Steven Wilson Steve Geltz Dave Tobik Rob Tejeda
Rich Hill Buddy Black Jamie Moyer Randy Wolf
Reiss Knehr Jackie Brown Jack Hamilton John Penn
Moises Lugo Jesus Colome Carlos Contreras Mike Roesler
Ray Kerr Juan Perez Tim Mayza Charlie Manning
Daniel Camarena Adam Wilk 아담 Logan Darnell Nick Greenwood
Gabe Mosser Karl Gelinas Pat Murphy Sherman Jones
Logan Gillaspie Ricky Rojas Steve Lankard Aaron Cotter
Anderson Espinoza Aaron Blair Daniel Corcino Dave Newkirk
Robert Suarez Armando Benitez Jim Hughes John Wyatt
Jeremiah Estrada Roger Hambright Greg Ferlenda Josh Schmidt
Edwuin Bencomo Sam Held Justin Amlung Greg Kallevig
Aaron Leasher Cole McCurry Robert Ludwick Cedric Shaw
Aaron Brooks Steve Hargan Rusty Meacham Tom McCarthy
Bobby Milacki Dillon Tate Matt Schwager Jack Whillock
Lake Bachar Pete Taylor Connor Robertson Pete Janicki
Nick Hernandez Alex Carrasquel Kevin Quackenbush Tom Waddell
Duncan Snider Ken Johnson Chuck Hickman Gale Kennedy
Nolan Watson Alex McRae Jose Sanchez Kyle McGowin
Jason Blanchard Jose Jimenez Craig Minetto Evan Crawford
Luis García Jim Johnson Bill Voiselle Doug Bair
Gabe Morales Scott Neal Pat Gillick Mark Bowden
Brian Gonzalez John Boling Bryan Harper James Thomas
Angel Sánchez Jim Ed Warden James Reynolds Vern Handrahan
Nick Duron Rafael Carmona Joe Bruno Bill Moran
Jose Quezada Mike Heinen Daryl Patterson Kevin Meistickle
Sean Poppen Roman Colon 콜론 Connor Robertson Thomas Atlee
Mason Fox David Carpenter Kevin Meistickle Greg Johnson
Seth Mayberry Scott Economy Jose Ortega Marc Pisciotta
Tim Hill Atlee Hammaker Mark Thurmond Lee Guetterman
Kevin Kopps Julio DePaula 데폴라 Alberto Cabrera Travis Lakins
Raul Brito Miguel Almonte Corey Copping J.C. Ramirez
James Bourque George Smith Bart Evans Derek Aucoin
Domingo Tapia Alexi Ogando 오간도 Manny Delcarmen Tom Wilhelmsen
Jake Sanchez Bob McGraw Jose Alberro Ron Piche
Michel Baez Trey Haley Jon Searles Johnny James
Henry Henry Pat Young Tim Lavigne Richard Ordway
Eric Hanhold Vito Valentinetti Collin Balester 벨레스터 Dave Wainhouse
Justin Lopez Charlie Morelock Dick Balderson Richard Ordway
Sean Reynolds Jimmy Yacabonis Mark Silva J.C. Ramirez

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Blake Snell .192 .266 .280 .214 .313 .364 4.5 1.5 2.78 4.21
Joe Musgrove .237 .303 .391 .233 .283 .364 3.6 1.9 2.95 3.90
Yu Darvish .240 .299 .393 .220 .278 .378 3.0 0.8 3.28 4.82
Seth Lugo .236 .307 .403 .258 .301 .440 2.1 0.4 3.60 4.69
Michael Wacha .224 .291 .380 .261 .309 .459 2.0 0.4 3.66 4.79
Josh Hader .161 .266 .250 .194 .282 .368 1.9 0.0 2.22 4.14
Matt Waldron .243 .306 .414 .264 .317 .439 1.8 0.1 3.88 5.04
Adam Mazur .267 .340 .449 .234 .286 .383 1.2 -0.1 3.88 5.10
Robby Snelling .270 .333 .405 .239 .313 .412 1.2 -0.2 4.08 5.16
Pedro Avila .252 .346 .387 .235 .327 .408 1.2 -0.1 4.02 5.13
Glenn Otto .235 .327 .403 .235 .321 .401 1.2 -0.3 4.01 5.41
Jairo Iriarte .227 .341 .383 .234 .332 .411 1.2 -0.2 4.03 5.09
Enyel De Los Santos .222 .309 .370 .224 .281 .381 1.0 -0.3 3.35 4.89
Ryan Bergert .256 .337 .432 .245 .316 .408 1.0 -0.2 4.24 5.23
Jose Espada .263 .361 .456 .213 .304 .369 0.8 -0.4 3.88 5.30
Jared Kollar .269 .335 .428 .255 .315 .451 0.7 -0.3 4.26 5.36
Efrain Contreras .257 .356 .436 .243 .320 .422 0.8 -0.5 4.27 5.57
Tom Cosgrove .197 .288 .352 .237 .331 .397 0.8 -0.4 3.15 5.00
Adrian Morejon .224 .296 .327 .252 .325 .467 0.5 -0.1 3.64 4.94
Jay Groome .268 .367 .430 .234 .335 .393 1.1 -0.8 4.41 5.57
Alek Jacob .253 .341 .453 .220 .294 .363 0.5 -0.2 3.43 4.88
Drew Carlton .256 .326 .419 .233 .292 .408 0.5 -0.3 3.55 4.92
Steven Wilson .230 .337 .368 .204 .291 .388 0.7 -0.5 3.37 4.94
Rich Hill .245 .333 .418 .260 .322 .471 0.9 -0.8 4.33 5.75
Reiss Knehr .241 .331 .422 .242 .341 .383 0.5 -0.6 4.35 5.67
Moises Lugo .260 .370 .440 .203 .309 .352 0.6 -0.5 3.86 5.26
Ray Kerr .206 .316 .338 .243 .340 .436 0.6 -0.6 3.56 5.15
Daniel Camarena .266 .314 .405 .288 .340 .495 0.4 -0.4 4.52 5.54
Gabe Mosser .282 .348 .447 .268 .320 .482 0.3 -0.4 4.59 5.76
Logan Gillaspie .255 .321 .418 .261 .325 .423 0.4 -0.4 3.83 5.14
Anderson Espinoza .261 .368 .450 .241 .338 .397 0.6 -0.8 4.69 5.70
Robert Suarez .227 .326 .413 .218 .303 .385 0.5 -0.7 3.40 5.94
Jeremiah Estrada .247 .360 .438 .200 .303 .353 0.3 -0.5 3.64 5.12
Edwuin Bencomo .267 .328 .466 .267 .320 .415 0.3 -0.5 4.30 5.45
Aaron Leasher .253 .362 .392 .262 .357 .442 0.4 -0.6 4.55 5.76
Aaron Brooks .263 .325 .456 .273 .331 .438 0.3 -0.6 4.23 5.59
Bobby Milacki .244 .319 .398 .281 .344 .475 0.3 -0.6 4.25 5.36
Lake Bachar .266 .367 .422 .250 .312 .445 0.4 -0.7 4.20 5.54
Nick Hernandez .256 .346 .467 .209 .298 .330 0.4 -0.7 3.77 5.37
Duncan Snider .277 .388 .470 .250 .343 .398 0.1 -0.5 4.94 6.08
Nolan Watson .285 .374 .477 .260 .340 .417 0.2 -0.9 4.83 5.78
Jason Blanchard .246 .338 .333 .252 .340 .472 0.1 -0.7 4.12 5.48
Luis García .274 .365 .440 .234 .320 .411 0.2 -0.8 3.78 5.74
Gabe Morales .203 .338 .288 .246 .385 .454 0.2 -0.9 4.48 6.23
Brian Gonzalez .231 .362 .333 .253 .364 .482 -0.1 -0.6 4.89 6.45
Angel Sánchez .256 .365 .439 .264 .346 .451 0.0 -0.8 4.70 6.31
Nick Duron .232 .368 .411 .246 .354 .435 -0.1 -0.7 4.36 5.92
Jose Quezada .250 .368 .375 .246 .338 .475 -0.1 -0.7 4.46 6.06
Sean Poppen .281 .375 .458 .248 .317 .416 0.1 -0.8 4.29 5.60
Mason Fox .250 .375 .433 .235 .323 .395 0.0 -0.8 4.25 5.90
Seth Mayberry .233 .356 .356 .247 .343 .452 0.0 -0.7 4.25 5.44
Tim Hill .242 .315 .333 .282 .342 .505 -0.1 -0.8 4.39 5.87
Kevin Kopps .238 .341 .448 .252 .350 .370 0.0 -1.0 4.31 5.55
Raul Brito .270 .381 .416 .223 .325 .417 -0.1 -1.0 4.39 5.79
James Bourque .244 .414 .422 .234 .362 .426 -0.3 -0.9 5.15 7.92
Domingo Tapia .247 .375 .452 .250 .346 .402 -0.2 -1.0 4.58 6.28
Jake Sanchez .270 .369 .494 .248 .330 .406 -0.1 -1.0 4.34 5.91
Michel Baez .254 .383 .448 .256 .358 .422 -0.3 -1.0 4.82 6.20
Henry Henry .260 .390 .469 .262 .350 .410 -0.2 -1.0 4.91 6.06
Eric Hanhold .250 .364 .405 .250 .352 .442 -0.2 -1.2 4.55 6.13
Justin Lopez .268 .395 .451 .238 .347 .425 -0.4 -1.0 4.98 6.37
Sean Reynolds .234 .371 .426 .248 .357 .405 -0.3 -1.3 4.74 6.26

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





 

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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CC AFCmember
4 months ago

I was writing Soto off for them entirely, but then I heard their asks for him from the Yankees, which were absurd, and now I’m not sure. Could be just an opening proposal that they’ll move off of, and they’d have to move a lot, or maybe they’re not legitimately serious about trading him.

I keep thinking Cronenworth might be their best trade option for moving salary, if they won’t get realistic about Soto. Kim makes so little and it’s only a year left. Don’t think you can move musgrove until he shows he healthy in season, and no one’s taking a large portion of Yu’s money. Likely have to eat some of Cronenworth’s deal, or attach a prospect, but could still probably move a decent chunk of it if there are people who think he can go back to playing second and hitting just a bit above average.

Last edited 4 months ago by CC AFC
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sadtrombonemember
4 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

One thing about Preller is that his deals typically involve large prospect returns. When he was tearing down he was asking for enormous returns and when he was going for it he was trading away a ton of prospect value. He will have to come off of what he was asking for but it will probably still shock us.

Kim is probably the second most attractive player on the trade market after Soto because there are virtually zero options at shortstop in free agency right now. I don’t think they are shopping him but someone is going to give him a very big contract next offseason to play shortstop.

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Travis Lmember
4 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I think the Soto price is because the team wants to keep him entering the season, and see how they fare. They are looking for a “blow me away” offer right now. A more reasonable valuation would probably be the same now as mid-season (ie acquiring team would focus on playoff value, so possibly wouldn’t pay much more now than mid season)

It’s a pretty straightforward strategy – start your ask high, then lower it once you are closer to a deadline.

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sandwiches4evermember
4 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I suspect the reporting around the Yankees and Soto that’s saying Soto is the Yanks #1 target and they should be desperate to get him may have influenced the ask.

Asking for two of the Yanks’ top three prospects (Drew Thorpe and Everson Periera) and a very useful controllable pitcher in Michael King and two or three others (appearing to be a lot of the Yankees’ top level P depth) for one year of Soto — and the headstart on potentially extending him — plus Trent Grisham (who the Padres right now might consider a net negative given his arbitration salary) does feel like a bit much.

But then I look at the projection of Soto with the median of a .426 OBP, and damn. That’d be pretty sick in front of Judge. Of course, the trade being made by Brian Cashman, Soto would probably immediately fall into the Bronx Mystery Spot and never be heard from again.

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CC AFCmember
4 months ago
Reply to  sandwiches4ever

The report is they asked for Thorpe, King, Brito, Schmidt, Vazquez, and 3 others players, which the reporter implied may have included Peraza and/or Pereira. No matter how desperate anyone is, and I’m skeptical the Yankees are because Steinbrenner Jr. seems to barely care, that’s an obnoxious ask. I understand starting your ask high and moving down but that’s like sitting at the lunch table and offering your celery sticks for your friend’s pudding cups, Fritos and 3 selections from his future lunches.

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John Churchmember
4 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Either your school served really good celery sticks or you are undervaluing Soto. It’s more like being willing to give your friend half your ice cream sandwich, in exchange for the pudding cups, et al. Hey, some people really like ice cream!

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