2024 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

Julio Rodríguez is a great marquee player to have in any lineup, so no complaints there. Nor will you see me express concerns about Cal Raleigh behind the plate; the relatively down projection on the depth chart at catcher is due to Seby Zavala rather than the Big Dumper. The problem for the Mariners is that after those two and J.P. Crawford, the quality drops off fairly quickly.

Last year, one of the most unpopular opinions I expressed in the course of running these projection pieces was when I said that it’s a concern for a contending team if Teoscar Hernández is your Big Move rather than one of the lesser players in the lineup. Since that isn’t one of the comments that came back to bite me — mind you, there were plenty of others — I’m going to double down here: It’s an even bigger concern if your lineup sorely misses Teoscar Hernández. Jerry Dipoto is one of the more active executives in baseball in terms of wheeling ‘n’ dealing, but having to find two corner outfielders and a DH is a tall order in a market that is really lacking in offensive talent.

Meanwhile, the two trades the team has made so far kind of complicate things for Seattle. Jarred Kelenic‘s breakout might have made him more ordinary than awesome, but he’s better than the in-house options to replace him. And while Eugenio Suárez’s bat was mediocre in 2023 (and dipped considerably compared to the season prior), using Luis Urías at second while leaving Suárez at third would have at least addressed a weakness at the keystone rather than simply cutting costs. (Hopefully Jonathan India stays off Seattle’s trade radar; he’s not actually projected to be much of an upgrade at second.) The M’s would still be in need of more offense with Kelenic and Suárez in the fold — losing both just puts them further in the red.

This is important because the Mariners aren’t a rebuilding team, but one likely to be in a real race for the AL West with the Astros and Rangers. When your projected win total is in the 80s, efficiency has to go on the back burner; it’s not the time to pinch pennies. And ZiPS doesn’t see any real candidates in the minors to provide extra offense in the short-term. It likes Harry Ford and Cole Young well enough long-term — it sees both of them as 100 OPS+ guys in a few years — but that’s not going to help the Mariners in 2024.

The final lineup may be different, but I’m not sure it will be a whole lot better than it currently is. That’s a real concern.

Pitchers

Here we get to the highlight of the team, and the reason why the Rangers and Astros should be concerned, even with Seattle missing a bit of oomph in the lineup. ZiPS projects the Mariners to have a top-five rotation, with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby all in the top 15 or so of starters. Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo also get solid projections, and the computer is generally quite enamored with the various spares who are available if injuries should plague a starter or two. He’s not currently on the depth chart, but there’s also at least a possibility that Robbie Ray can contribute down the stretch as he returns from Tommy John surgery.

ZiPS also sees the Mariners as having an above-average bullpen, but with an important caveat: it’s very top heavy right now. The computer sees Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, and Gabe Speier as accounting for more than 80% of the team’s value from relievers in 2024. That’s good from a tactical standpoint, in that they can deploy their elite pitchers in high-leverage situations better than a team with a more even distribution of talent. But it’s less optimal from a strategic perspective, in that it makes the team more susceptible than most to an injured reliever or two. However, I should note that ZiPS really likes Prelander Berroa; projected as a full-time reliever, the system gives him a 3.43 ERA. There’s also the possibility that a returning Ray might see some time in relief.

An extra bullpen arm might be useful, but not if it comes at the expense of a corner outfielder or designated hitter.

Right now, the Mariners look like a team that’s likely to win 85-90 games, at least if you believe ZiPS. But adding another bat or two would lower the chances that they’re once again on the outside looking in at the postseason after an 88-win season.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.