2024 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

Julio Rodríguez is a great marquee player to have in any lineup, so no complaints there. Nor will you see me express concerns about Cal Raleigh behind the plate; the relatively down projection on the depth chart at catcher is due to Seby Zavala rather than the Big Dumper. The problem for the Mariners is that after those two and J.P. Crawford, the quality drops off fairly quickly.

Last year, one of the most unpopular opinions I expressed in the course of running these projection pieces was when I said that it’s a concern for a contending team if Teoscar Hernández is your Big Move rather than one of the lesser players in the lineup. Since that isn’t one of the comments that came back to bite me — mind you, there were plenty of others — I’m going to double down here: It’s an even bigger concern if your lineup sorely misses Teoscar Hernández. Jerry Dipoto is one of the more active executives in baseball in terms of wheeling ‘n’ dealing, but having to find two corner outfielders and a DH is a tall order in a market that is really lacking in offensive talent.

Meanwhile, the two trades the team has made so far kind of complicate things for Seattle. Jarred Kelenic‘s breakout might have made him more ordinary than awesome, but he’s better than the in-house options to replace him. And while Eugenio Suárez’s bat was mediocre in 2023 (and dipped considerably compared to the season prior), using Luis Urías at second while leaving Suárez at third would have at least addressed a weakness at the keystone rather than simply cutting costs. (Hopefully Jonathan India stays off Seattle’s trade radar; he’s not actually projected to be much of an upgrade at second.) The M’s would still be in need of more offense with Kelenic and Suárez in the fold — losing both just puts them further in the red.

This is important because the Mariners aren’t a rebuilding team, but one likely to be in a real race for the AL West with the Astros and Rangers. When your projected win total is in the 80s, efficiency has to go on the back burner; it’s not the time to pinch pennies. And ZiPS doesn’t see any real candidates in the minors to provide extra offense in the short-term. It likes Harry Ford and Cole Young well enough long-term — it sees both of them as 100 OPS+ guys in a few years — but that’s not going to help the Mariners in 2024.

The final lineup may be different, but I’m not sure it will be a whole lot better than it currently is. That’s a real concern.

Pitchers

Here we get to the highlight of the team, and the reason why the Rangers and Astros should be concerned, even with Seattle missing a bit of oomph in the lineup. ZiPS projects the Mariners to have a top-five rotation, with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby all in the top 15 or so of starters. Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo also get solid projections, and the computer is generally quite enamored with the various spares who are available if injuries should plague a starter or two. He’s not currently on the depth chart, but there’s also at least a possibility that Robbie Ray can contribute down the stretch as he returns from Tommy John surgery.

ZiPS also sees the Mariners as having an above-average bullpen, but with an important caveat: it’s very top heavy right now. The computer sees Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, and Gabe Speier as accounting for more than 80% of the team’s value from relievers in 2024. That’s good from a tactical standpoint, in that they can deploy their elite pitchers in high-leverage situations better than a team with a more even distribution of talent. But it’s less optimal from a strategic perspective, in that it makes the team more susceptible than most to an injured reliever or two. However, I should note that ZiPS really likes Prelander Berroa; projected as a full-time reliever, the system gives him a 3.43 ERA. There’s also the possibility that a returning Ray might see some time in relief.

An extra bullpen arm might be useful, but not if it comes at the expense of a corner outfielder or designated hitter.

Right now, the Mariners look like a team that’s likely to win 85-90 games, at least if you believe ZiPS. But adding another bat or two would lower the chances that they’re once again on the outside looking in at the postseason after an 88-win season.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Julio Rodríguez R 23 CF 673 613 100 168 31 2 32 104 48 157 34 9
Cal Raleigh B 27 C 508 458 62 106 27 1 25 76 43 135 1 1
J.P. Crawford L 29 SS 632 546 80 139 30 1 12 62 74 109 3 2
Ty France R 29 1B 633 562 74 149 30 1 15 70 40 107 1 1
Luis Urías R 27 3B 455 397 53 94 17 1 14 48 44 110 2 1
Jose Caballero R 27 2B 294 249 40 57 11 1 5 28 30 65 22 4
Jonatan Clase B 22 CF 588 528 81 108 22 7 15 66 51 192 38 9
Teoscar Hernández R 31 RF 614 567 75 144 24 1 27 86 36 178 8 3
Dylan Moore R 31 LF 296 256 38 56 13 2 10 32 30 92 15 6
Cole Young L 20 SS 629 552 76 119 28 6 9 62 59 119 11 7
Tom Murphy R 33 C 217 193 24 46 9 0 8 26 21 64 0 1
Taylor Trammell L 26 CF 449 394 53 83 18 0 16 56 46 136 10 4
Riley Unroe B 28 2B 383 343 45 75 13 2 7 35 35 100 9 4
Josh Rojas L 30 3B 459 409 58 92 20 1 9 46 43 106 13 2
Cade Marlowe L 27 LF 492 448 59 98 17 5 13 58 37 157 20 6
Brian O’Keefe R 30 C 398 366 43 79 17 1 14 49 29 118 1 2
Ryan Bliss R 24 2B 551 507 66 110 21 3 12 60 33 141 24 9
Dominic Canzone L 26 LF 459 424 59 104 21 2 17 61 30 93 5 2
Jake Scheiner R 28 3B 521 466 66 103 23 2 18 68 44 148 2 2
Sam Haggerty B 30 2B 343 305 45 72 16 2 6 37 29 76 20 2
Mike Ford L 31 DH 404 356 43 79 14 1 16 49 41 102 1 1
Harry Ford R 21 C 572 495 67 103 20 3 10 58 63 147 11 5
Rangel Ravelo R 32 1B 261 224 31 55 10 0 6 31 28 46 0 1
César Hernández B 34 2B 470 418 55 97 19 1 6 37 44 102 5 2
Zach DeLoach L 25 RF 565 508 69 113 22 2 14 65 49 174 4 2
Leo Rivas B 26 SS 405 348 46 74 10 2 4 33 44 101 18 5
Robbie Tenerowicz R 29 1B 480 423 54 97 18 1 11 62 33 110 1 3
Luis Torrens R 28 C 318 292 27 65 14 1 9 36 22 90 0 1
Alex De Goti R 29 SS 410 364 46 74 17 1 4 33 39 110 3 1
Tyler Locklear R 23 1B 362 321 36 72 17 1 9 46 26 92 5 1
Kaden Polcovich B 25 2B 391 347 46 67 13 3 7 37 35 113 8 2
Seby Zavala R 30 C 282 255 27 48 11 0 8 29 20 109 1 1
Tommy La Stella L 35 DH 256 231 28 56 13 1 5 24 21 36 0 1
Didi Gregorius L 34 SS 304 279 31 63 13 2 7 31 16 48 2 1
Pedro Severino R 30 C 304 280 30 65 13 0 7 31 21 76 3 1
Bill Knight R 24 CF 314 281 38 57 7 0 5 35 18 101 18 3
Adam Engel R 32 CF 338 306 38 61 14 1 7 33 25 115 12 3
Spencer Packard L 26 LF 480 431 47 101 18 1 9 55 38 91 1 1
Delino DeShields R 31 LF 379 325 40 67 11 1 2 27 46 106 16 6
Colin Moran L 31 3B 318 287 28 65 11 0 9 39 26 85 0 1
Patrick Frick R 27 2B 332 299 40 65 11 1 2 29 23 84 2 1
Matt Scheffler R 26 C 275 243 27 48 7 2 2 23 24 77 4 1
Robert Emery R 27 C 176 155 13 30 6 0 2 15 13 58 0 1
Blake Hunt R 25 C 313 288 32 59 15 1 6 31 18 88 1 1
Isiah Gilliam B 27 DH 475 425 50 89 18 1 15 58 43 176 12 4
Logan Warmoth R 28 3B 409 363 43 73 15 1 6 37 36 138 12 5
Josh Morgan R 28 3B 304 277 27 57 11 0 7 32 20 86 1 1
Blake Rambusch R 24 2B 301 263 32 54 9 1 2 25 27 86 13 4
James Parker R 24 SS 337 309 34 55 11 1 8 32 24 144 2 1
Tanner Kirwer R 28 CF 309 277 39 55 8 1 4 27 24 95 16 2
Joseph Rosa B 27 SS 333 298 33 58 12 1 3 28 27 107 7 2
Mike Salvatore R 27 2B 237 217 15 41 4 2 2 16 18 64 2 1
Ben Ramirez L 25 3B 498 462 45 92 18 1 7 44 27 159 2 1
Colin Davis R 25 LF 339 315 35 65 15 1 7 34 19 96 6 2
Hogan Windish R 25 1B 433 389 44 77 13 2 11 48 33 160 5 1
Ty Duvall L 26 C 198 174 18 31 6 0 2 17 19 70 0 1
Connor Hoover L 27 2B 351 313 39 57 12 2 7 32 32 118 5 2
Jake Anchia R 27 C 289 268 29 50 11 1 5 26 15 94 0 1
Edryn Rodriguez R 21 2B 233 214 21 35 9 1 2 18 12 98 5 2
Walking Cabrera R 23 CF 352 326 36 65 13 1 6 32 19 114 4 1
Alberto Rodriguez L 23 RF 531 488 54 107 24 3 8 54 34 154 5 3
Justin Lavey R 26 2B 293 274 25 51 7 2 3 23 16 107 7 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Julio Rodríguez 673 .274 .336 .488 132 .214 .321 5 5.1 .350 111
Cal Raleigh 508 .231 .299 .459 112 .227 .272 6 3.3 .322 63
J.P. Crawford 632 .255 .348 .379 108 .125 .299 -1 3.0 .323 73
Ty France 633 .265 .341 .402 112 .137 .305 4 1.9 .327 78
Luis Urías 455 .237 .327 .390 104 .154 .293 1 1.7 .316 52
Jose Caballero 294 .229 .337 .341 95 .112 .291 3 1.4 .307 35
Jonatan Clase 588 .205 .281 .358 81 .153 .290 6 1.3 .280 64
Teoscar Hernández 614 .254 .305 .443 110 .189 .323 -2 1.2 .320 79
Dylan Moore 296 .219 .321 .402 105 .184 .299 5 1.1 .317 39
Cole Young 629 .216 .305 .337 84 .121 .259 -2 0.9 .287 62
Tom Murphy 217 .238 .313 .409 105 .171 .314 -1 0.8 .314 25
Taylor Trammell 449 .211 .299 .378 92 .168 .277 -1 0.8 .297 48
Riley Unroe 383 .219 .294 .329 78 .111 .288 6 0.7 .278 37
Josh Rojas 459 .225 .298 .345 83 .120 .282 2 0.7 .283 45
Cade Marlowe 492 .219 .285 .366 84 .147 .306 9 0.7 .284 53
Brian O’Keefe 398 .216 .276 .383 86 .167 .278 -2 0.6 .286 40
Ryan Bliss 551 .217 .273 .341 74 .124 .277 6 0.6 .270 56
Dominic Canzone 459 .245 .298 .425 104 .179 .277 -1 0.5 .310 56
Jake Scheiner 521 .221 .296 .395 95 .174 .283 -5 0.5 .300 56
Sam Haggerty 343 .236 .311 .361 92 .125 .296 -5 0.5 .296 39
Mike Ford 404 .222 .312 .402 102 .180 .265 0 0.4 .312 45
Harry Ford 572 .208 .311 .321 82 .113 .275 -8 0.4 .286 54
Rangel Ravelo 261 .246 .337 .371 103 .125 .285 0 0.4 .314 28
César Hernández 470 .232 .310 .325 82 .093 .294 -1 0.3 .284 44
Zach DeLoach 565 .222 .297 .356 86 .134 .309 5 0.3 .288 55
Leo Rivas 405 .213 .305 .287 71 .075 .288 -1 0.3 .271 36
Robbie Tenerowicz 480 .229 .313 .355 91 .125 .285 4 0.2 .297 48
Luis Torrens 318 .223 .277 .370 83 .147 .290 -3 0.2 .279 30
Alex De Goti 410 .203 .286 .288 65 .085 .280 2 0.1 .261 31
Tyler Locklear 362 .224 .307 .368 92 .143 .286 0 0.1 .298 38
Kaden Polcovich 391 .193 .279 .308 68 .115 .264 3 0.0 .264 32
Seby Zavala 282 .188 .254 .325 64 .137 .290 2 0.0 .255 22
Tommy La Stella 256 .242 .309 .372 94 .130 .268 0 0.0 .299 27
Didi Gregorius 304 .226 .280 .362 82 .136 .250 -4 0.0 .278 29
Pedro Severino 304 .232 .286 .354 82 .121 .294 -6 -0.1 .281 29
Bill Knight 314 .203 .284 .281 63 .078 .297 1 -0.1 .258 27
Adam Engel 338 .199 .272 .320 69 .121 .293 0 -0.1 .264 30
Spencer Packard 480 .234 .308 .343 86 .109 .278 0 -0.2 .290 46
Delino DeShields 379 .206 .309 .265 67 .058 .300 5 -0.2 .267 32
Colin Moran 318 .226 .292 .359 85 .132 .290 -5 -0.3 .285 31
Patrick Frick 332 .217 .286 .281 64 .064 .296 2 -0.3 .257 25
Matt Scheffler 275 .198 .284 .267 59 .070 .280 -2 -0.3 .253 20
Robert Emery 176 .194 .276 .271 58 .077 .295 -2 -0.4 .250 12
Blake Hunt 313 .205 .262 .326 67 .122 .273 -3 -0.4 .259 25
Isiah Gilliam 475 .209 .288 .362 85 .153 .316 0 -0.4 .286 49
Logan Warmoth 409 .201 .284 .298 67 .096 .306 0 -0.4 .263 35
Josh Morgan 304 .206 .270 .321 68 .116 .272 -2 -0.5 .262 25
Blake Rambusch 301 .205 .298 .270 65 .065 .297 -5 -0.6 .262 25
James Parker 337 .178 .240 .298 53 .120 .299 1 -0.7 .238 23
Tanner Kirwer 309 .199 .276 .278 59 .079 .287 -4 -0.7 .252 25
Joseph Rosa 333 .195 .273 .272 57 .077 .293 -4 -0.8 .248 24
Mike Salvatore 237 .189 .253 .253 46 .065 .258 0 -0.8 .230 15
Ben Ramirez 498 .199 .250 .288 54 .089 .287 6 -0.9 .239 34
Colin Davis 339 .206 .257 .327 66 .121 .274 1 -0.9 .256 28
Hogan Windish 433 .198 .273 .326 71 .129 .303 2 -0.9 .266 36
Ty Duvall 198 .178 .273 .247 51 .069 .284 -6 -1.0 .242 12
Connor Hoover 351 .182 .263 .300 61 .118 .266 -4 -1.0 .252 27
Jake Anchia 289 .187 .239 .291 51 .104 .266 -4 -1.0 .234 19
Edryn Rodriguez 233 .164 .216 .243 31 .079 .289 1 -1.2 .206 13
Walking Cabrera 352 .199 .247 .301 56 .101 .286 -3 -1.3 .241 25
Alberto Rodriguez 531 .219 .277 .330 73 .111 .304 -2 -1.3 .268 47
Justin Lavey 293 .186 .235 .259 42 .073 .293 -5 -1.7 .221 19

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Julio Rodríguez Cesar Cedeno Vada Pinson Bobby Tolan
Cal Raleigh Cliff Johnson Carlton Fisk Todd Hundley
J.P. Crawford Wayne Causey Matt Carpenter Ron Hunt
Ty France Sean Casey Casey Kotchman James Loney 로니
Luis Urías Jim Leyritz Tim Naehring Dave Cripe
Jose Caballero Doc Gautreau Jeff Cox Bill Lyons
Jonatan Clase Brian Goodwin Sil Campusano Daryl Boston
Teoscar Hernández Laurence Miller Teoscar Hernández George Kelly
Dylan Moore Gary Redus Ted Savage Pete Reiser
Cole Young Benjamin Gonzales Spike Owen Lee Bales
Tom Murphy Tom Prince Todd Pratt Adam Melhuse
Taylor Trammell Dick Kokos Karl Rhodes Bob Speake
Riley Unroe David Espinosa Jimmy Stewart Tim Barker
Josh Rojas Tim Ireland Cliff Pennington Gene Mauch
Cade Marlowe Jeremy Hazelbaker 해즐베이커 Curtis Pride Gary Ward
Brian O’Keefe Derek Norris Hector Gimenez Vic Correll
Ryan Bliss Chase d’Arnaud Chris Wimmer Alen Hanson
Dominic Canzone Mark Carreon Walt Bond Ron Jackson
Jake Scheiner Les Bell Steve Buechele Roy Howell
Sam Haggerty Davey Lopes Ray Durham Snuffy Stirnweiss
Mike Ford Joe Hague Yoshi Tsutsugo Mike Jorgensen
Harry Ford Chris Jelic Jayson Werth Joe Lawrence
Rangel Ravelo Scott Hatteberg Danny Heep Mark Sweeney
César Hernández Jamey Carroll Mickey Morandini Mark McLemore
Zach DeLoach Doug Deeds Ted Wood 우드 Jackie Mayo
Leo Rivas Eddy Alvarez Nick Punto Elio Chacon
Robbie Tenerowicz Russ Rac Mike Eylward Robbie Widlansky
Luis Torrens Harry Chiti Blake Barthol Chris Widger
Alex De Goti Chris Gutierrez Albenis Machado George Strickland
Tyler Locklear William Ferguson Ramon Gimenez Javier Brito
Kaden Polcovich Harry Chappas Francisco Soriano Thomas Coyle
Seby Zavala Jayhawk Owens Pete Gongola Ron Henry
Tommy La Stella Ken Oberkfell Tim Corcoran Harry Spilman
Didi Gregorius Jose Uribe Alberto Gonzalez Pete Castiglione
Pedro Severino Al Spohrer Lloyd Flodin Tony Tornay
Bill Knight Gered Mochizuki David Hulse Mike Sansoe
Adam Engel Matthew den Dekker Ernie Koy Cecil Espy
Spencer Packard Lanny Phillips Gene Larkin Josh Naylor
Delino DeShields Quintin Berry Grégor Blanco Reggie Willits
Colin Moran Ray Giannelli Craig Worthington Bill Scripture
Patrick Frick Pat Kelly T.J. Maier Bryant Flete
Matt Scheffler Joe Kmak Jeff Tackett Gerry Melillo
Robert Emery Ryan Bennett Jeff Waldron Martin Medina
Blake Hunt Danny Breeden Burnard Crawford Mike Matheny
Isiah Gilliam Jeff Conine Jayson Werth Donn Clendenon
Logan Warmoth Zach Penprase Marc Rhea Anthony Granato
Josh Morgan Julian Benavidez Corey Myers Tyler Houston
Blake Rambusch Brock Hebert Shawn O’Malley Mario Holmann
James Parker Donald Sprusansky Al Grandcolas Billy Carthel
Tanner Kirwer Breland Almadova Carroll Hardy Mike Mesh
Joseph Rosa Rolando Gomez Darrel Chaney Eric Stamets
Mike Salvatore Juan Adames Joe Aversa John Mahalik
Ben Ramirez Alfred Ricciuti Michael Dunn Neil Rasmussen
Colin Davis Andres Perez Andrew Godbold John Coats
Hogan Windish Mark Chasey Joe Gaetti Mike Ahmed
Ty Duvall Sean Gousha Josh Emmerick Patrick Johnson
Connor Hoover Ty Griffin Daniel Wieser Juan Bell
Jake Anchia Bryan Loeb Scott Rainey Roger Luce
Edryn Rodriguez Amador Arias Randy Farmer Jose Garcia
Walking Cabrera Jesus Cedeno Tim Demerson James Springborn
Alberto Rodriguez Luis González Troy O’Leary 오리어리 Felix Jose 호세
Justin Lavey Steve Schneider Gabe Suarez Ridge Hoopii-Haslam

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Julio Rodríguez .302 .366 .547 154 7.0 .246 .308 .431 108 3.2
Cal Raleigh .255 .323 .523 134 4.5 .208 .273 .406 92 2.0
J.P. Crawford .280 .372 .417 125 4.3 .232 .319 .339 91 1.6
Ty France .289 .366 .448 132 3.4 .236 .315 .361 93 0.5
Luis Urías .261 .352 .446 126 2.8 .211 .302 .347 85 0.6
Jose Caballero .255 .365 .391 115 2.2 .202 .308 .296 76 0.8
Jonatan Clase .224 .305 .401 97 2.5 .183 .259 .315 65 0.0
Teoscar Hernández .278 .330 .488 129 2.6 .229 .278 .397 90 -0.3
Dylan Moore .245 .347 .457 127 2.0 .196 .296 .350 85 0.4
Cole Young .240 .333 .387 103 2.3 .188 .278 .290 63 -0.7
Tom Murphy .265 .342 .470 128 1.4 .205 .283 .362 85 0.3
Taylor Trammell .233 .321 .429 112 1.8 .183 .273 .322 72 -0.3
Riley Unroe .244 .320 .379 98 1.7 .191 .264 .290 59 -0.1
Josh Rojas .250 .322 .390 101 1.7 .199 .273 .305 66 -0.3
Cade Marlowe .245 .309 .418 102 1.9 .195 .257 .315 62 -0.6
Brian O’Keefe .240 .303 .436 105 1.6 .190 .249 .328 65 -0.4
Ryan Bliss .242 .299 .383 92 1.9 .194 .250 .302 56 -0.6
Dominic Canzone .269 .323 .472 123 1.7 .224 .273 .378 85 -0.4
Jake Scheiner .244 .319 .448 115 1.8 .197 .271 .346 78 -0.6
Sam Haggerty .262 .336 .396 108 1.2 .213 .291 .312 74 -0.2
Mike Ford .244 .335 .447 118 1.2 .198 .289 .354 83 -0.5
Harry Ford .233 .339 .371 102 1.7 .178 .283 .278 63 -1.0
Rangel Ravelo .275 .362 .417 121 0.9 .217 .308 .326 84 -0.2
César Hernández .259 .334 .359 100 1.3 .205 .282 .287 65 -0.6
Zach DeLoach .247 .320 .405 106 1.7 .193 .271 .311 67 -1.0
Leo Rivas .238 .331 .326 89 1.2 .186 .279 .253 56 -0.5
Robbie Tenerowicz .259 .339 .400 110 1.4 .206 .290 .315 74 -0.7
Luis Torrens .246 .303 .420 101 0.9 .194 .251 .317 63 -0.6
Alex De Goti .231 .312 .328 84 1.0 .180 .259 .250 48 -0.8
Tyler Locklear .251 .329 .417 112 0.9 .199 .283 .326 74 -0.7
Kaden Polcovich .217 .304 .356 87 1.0 .169 .258 .270 51 -0.7
Seby Zavala .215 .283 .382 85 0.8 .163 .225 .279 44 -0.7
Tommy La Stella .274 .344 .422 116 0.7 .209 .279 .321 71 -0.7
Didi Gregorius .255 .306 .419 105 0.8 .205 .256 .318 64 -0.7
Pedro Severino .257 .315 .400 103 0.8 .207 .265 .313 67 -0.6
Bill Knight .227 .307 .324 80 0.5 .178 .262 .241 46 -0.8
Adam Engel .226 .301 .369 90 0.7 .174 .242 .273 47 -1.0
Spencer Packard .260 .330 .382 102 0.8 .210 .283 .305 69 -1.2
Delino DeShields .228 .333 .295 83 0.5 .181 .280 .229 51 -1.0
Colin Moran .253 .319 .403 104 0.4 .199 .265 .314 65 -1.0
Patrick Frick .246 .313 .316 81 0.5 .192 .262 .246 47 -0.9
Matt Scheffler .226 .314 .307 79 0.3 .167 .255 .231 41 -1.0
Robert Emery .221 .312 .314 81 0.1 .161 .247 .228 38 -0.8
Blake Hunt .232 .293 .379 88 0.4 .178 .236 .286 50 -1.1
Isiah Gilliam .231 .310 .413 103 0.7 .180 .262 .310 63 -1.7
Logan Warmoth .228 .311 .344 86 0.5 .177 .257 .258 49 -1.3
Josh Morgan .234 .301 .376 92 0.3 .181 .243 .277 49 -1.3
Blake Rambusch .232 .319 .306 79 -0.1 .183 .274 .239 51 -1.2
James Parker .205 .269 .348 72 0.1 .155 .219 .256 35 -1.4
Tanner Kirwer .223 .300 .315 77 -0.1 .174 .250 .244 44 -1.4
Joseph Rosa .222 .298 .311 74 -0.1 .168 .247 .235 39 -1.5
Mike Salvatore .224 .289 .302 68 -0.2 .161 .224 .214 26 -1.4
Ben Ramirez .228 .275 .323 71 0.2 .177 .227 .251 38 -1.8
Colin Davis .234 .283 .371 85 0.0 .179 .227 .280 45 -1.7
Hogan Windish .221 .298 .369 87 0.0 .173 .245 .281 52 -1.9
Ty Duvall .204 .302 .290 69 -0.5 .150 .242 .208 32 -1.4
Connor Hoover .204 .290 .357 83 -0.1 .154 .237 .257 42 -1.8
Jake Anchia .216 .271 .336 71 -0.3 .158 .210 .247 31 -1.7
Edryn Rodriguez .191 .243 .289 49 -0.7 .132 .189 .192 10 -1.8
Walking Cabrera .224 .272 .344 73 -0.5 .172 .222 .258 37 -2.1
Alberto Rodriguez .241 .301 .369 89 -0.3 .196 .253 .289 55 -2.5
Justin Lavey .210 .256 .298 57 -1.1 .162 .210 .225 24 -2.3

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Julio Rodríguez .279 .345 .493 .271 .331 .485
Cal Raleigh .231 .302 .441 .232 .298 .467
J.P. Crawford .243 .335 .343 .260 .353 .395
Ty France .268 .338 .402 .264 .343 .402
Luis Urías .246 .338 .403 .232 .322 .384
Jose Caballero .241 .352 .361 .220 .325 .326
Jonatan Clase .203 .284 .354 .205 .279 .360
Teoscar Hernández .263 .314 .458 .250 .300 .436
Dylan Moore .219 .328 .410 .219 .316 .397
Cole Young .203 .302 .310 .221 .306 .348
Tom Murphy .241 .333 .398 .236 .298 .418
Taylor Trammell .203 .290 .359 .214 .304 .387
Riley Unroe .220 .299 .341 .218 .291 .322
Josh Rojas .222 .292 .324 .226 .300 .352
Cade Marlowe .212 .277 .348 .223 .290 .379
Brian O’Keefe .225 .292 .408 .208 .263 .360
Ryan Bliss .214 .274 .338 .219 .272 .343
Dominic Canzone .238 .289 .395 .249 .303 .440
Jake Scheiner .226 .308 .394 .216 .284 .396
Sam Haggerty .237 .316 .381 .235 .308 .348
Mike Ford .214 .306 .367 .225 .314 .415
Harry Ford .211 .322 .328 .206 .303 .316
Rangel Ravelo .258 .356 .371 .237 .325 .370
César Hernández .236 .310 .331 .230 .310 .323
Zach DeLoach .218 .290 .342 .225 .302 .366
Leo Rivas .209 .305 .299 .215 .305 .280
Robbie Tenerowicz .235 .321 .376 .225 .307 .340
Luis Torrens .230 .286 .393 .218 .270 .353
Alex De Goti .207 .296 .298 .199 .276 .278
Tyler Locklear .222 .308 .365 .226 .306 .369
Kaden Polcovich .196 .286 .313 .190 .272 .304
Seby Zavala .186 .263 .324 .190 .247 .327
Tommy La Stella .235 .316 .353 .244 .307 .378
Didi Gregorius .215 .267 .354 .230 .284 .365
Pedro Severino .239 .294 .367 .228 .281 .345
Bill Knight .209 .287 .291 .199 .283 .275
Adam Engel .200 .279 .300 .199 .269 .332
Spencer Packard .227 .301 .336 .238 .312 .347
Delino DeShields .208 .322 .269 .205 .300 .262
Colin Moran .214 .282 .329 .230 .296 .369
Patrick Frick .223 .293 .293 .211 .278 .268
Matt Scheffler .200 .292 .286 .196 .277 .254
Robert Emery .197 .288 .282 .190 .266 .262
Blake Hunt .208 .273 .346 .203 .253 .310
Isiah Gilliam .200 .281 .333 .215 .293 .381
Logan Warmoth .199 .287 .305 .203 .282 .292
Josh Morgan .214 .285 .333 .200 .259 .313
Blake Rambusch .214 .308 .282 .200 .291 .263
James Parker .179 .250 .299 .177 .233 .297
Tanner Kirwer .202 .285 .295 .196 .268 .264
Joseph Rosa .189 .273 .252 .199 .274 .287
Mike Salvatore .191 .265 .270 .188 .245 .242
Ben Ramirez .189 .239 .264 .204 .255 .299
Colin Davis .206 .261 .336 .207 .254 .321
Hogan Windish .204 .287 .336 .194 .263 .321
Ty Duvall .180 .286 .262 .177 .266 .239
Connor Hoover .180 .252 .300 .183 .268 .300
Jake Anchia .195 .246 .310 .181 .234 .277
Edryn Rodriguez .169 .227 .270 .160 .209 .224
Walking Cabrera .203 .256 .322 .197 .240 .284
Alberto Rodriguez .210 .271 .318 .224 .281 .337
Justin Lavey .193 .248 .281 .180 .223 .237

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Luis Castillo R 31 12 8 3.27 30 30 176.3 146 64 18 52 187
Logan Gilbert R 27 11 8 3.50 31 31 182.3 167 71 21 48 168
George Kirby R 26 12 8 3.48 29 29 168.0 162 65 19 27 151
Bryce Miller R 25 8 7 3.88 27 27 139.3 130 60 17 34 121
Robbie Ray L 32 8 7 3.93 22 22 130.7 119 57 22 45 140
Bryan Woo R 24 6 7 4.11 25 25 116.0 103 53 15 34 115
Darren McCaughan R 28 6 7 4.34 24 22 132.7 136 64 18 30 102
Andrés Muñoz R 25 7 3 2.91 61 0 58.7 41 19 6 21 89
Matt Brash R 26 6 5 3.57 59 5 75.7 61 30 8 37 101
Emerson Hancock R 25 6 7 4.44 21 21 95.3 94 47 12 35 73
James Joyce R 25 3 3 4.30 18 18 75.3 72 36 10 20 62
Ethan Lindow L 25 4 4 4.55 22 16 91.0 96 46 13 28 59
Nick Davila R 25 6 6 4.56 20 15 96.7 103 49 13 27 64
Tyson Miller R 28 4 4 4.23 30 9 72.3 69 34 9 27 66
Juan Mercedes R 24 4 5 4.56 20 13 79.0 81 40 11 25 62
Prelander Berroa R 24 3 4 4.38 34 14 74.0 64 36 10 45 85
Taylor Dollard R 25 5 6 4.73 15 14 85.7 88 45 13 23 64
José Rodríguez R 28 4 5 4.61 28 13 80.0 85 41 11 27 54
Trent Thornton R 30 3 3 4.04 36 5 62.3 60 28 9 21 55
Blas Castano R 25 5 6 4.66 21 12 73.3 75 38 9 26 53
Eduard Bazardo R 28 3 3 4.00 38 2 54.0 50 24 7 16 50
Gabe Speier L 29 2 2 3.76 59 0 52.7 48 22 7 12 52
Cody Bolton R 26 4 4 4.48 40 7 68.3 67 34 9 30 60
Logan Allen L 27 3 5 4.81 32 11 91.7 93 49 12 38 69
Shawn Semple R 28 5 7 4.92 21 14 86.0 98 47 13 28 46
Tommy Milone L 37 4 5 4.93 20 18 84.0 92 46 14 30 61
Dominic Leone R 32 3 2 3.96 51 1 52.3 47 23 8 21 54
Konner Wade R 32 3 3 4.86 15 12 66.7 79 36 10 19 36
Casey Sadler R 33 1 1 4.14 37 1 41.3 38 19 6 13 36
Justin Topa R 33 4 4 4.25 62 0 55.0 55 26 7 16 47
Jackson Kowar R 27 5 6 4.81 36 10 82.3 81 44 11 40 80
Ty Adcock R 27 1 0 4.03 35 0 38.0 36 17 5 7 29
Tayler Saucedo L 31 3 3 4.22 47 1 49.0 44 23 6 20 49
Marcus Walden R 35 2 4 4.96 19 10 61.7 69 34 9 24 38
Matt Festa R 31 1 1 4.14 39 0 41.3 35 19 5 19 43
Ryder Ryan R 29 3 4 4.35 43 1 49.7 48 24 6 20 44
Blake Weiman L 28 3 4 4.38 39 0 49.3 50 24 7 14 39
Jarod Bayless R 27 3 3 4.42 33 0 38.7 36 19 5 10 35
Eric Stout L 31 2 2 4.97 24 4 41.7 41 23 6 22 40
Zach Muckenhirn L 29 1 2 4.56 34 1 47.3 50 24 6 19 34
Peyton Alford L 26 3 4 4.60 35 1 43.0 40 22 6 22 44
Juan Then R 24 2 4 4.81 34 4 48.7 54 26 7 19 31
A.J. Puckett R 29 4 5 4.88 34 5 59.0 61 32 8 25 42
Rob Kaminsky L 29 2 4 4.78 32 1 37.7 40 20 5 14 27
Fred Villarreal R 26 1 2 4.91 27 2 47.7 51 26 6 18 31
Nolan Blackwood R 29 3 3 4.60 36 0 47.0 50 24 6 17 30
Kyle Hill R 27 2 2 4.68 34 0 32.7 31 17 4 19 29
Carlos Vargas R 24 1 3 4.93 35 2 49.3 50 27 7 24 38
Nick Wittgren R 33 1 2 4.71 45 0 49.7 51 26 7 16 37
Mike Flynn R 27 2 2 5.00 29 1 36.0 34 20 5 14 32
Taylor Williams R 32 1 2 4.95 33 1 40.0 41 22 5 17 30
Travis Kuhn R 26 3 4 4.91 44 0 47.7 46 26 6 23 39
Jake Haberer R 29 1 1 5.26 34 3 37.7 39 22 6 22 30
Brett de Geus R 26 2 2 5.13 29 1 40.3 43 23 5 16 27
Collin Kober R 29 2 3 5.01 38 1 50.3 50 28 7 21 42
Dayeison Arias R 27 1 0 4.98 36 0 43.3 40 24 6 26 42
Ben Onyshko L 27 1 2 5.48 29 2 46.0 45 28 7 22 36
Tyler Driver R 23 2 4 5.80 28 0 45.0 47 29 6 25 27

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Luis Castillo 176.3 9.5 2.7 0.9 7.3% 26.1% .279 126 3.45 79 4.0
Logan Gilbert 182.3 8.3 2.4 1.0 6.4% 22.3% .285 118 3.78 85 3.6
George Kirby 168.0 8.1 1.4 1.0 3.9% 22.1% .295 119 3.52 84 3.4
Bryce Miller 139.3 7.8 2.2 1.1 5.9% 21.0% .283 106 3.99 94 2.3
Robbie Ray 130.7 9.6 3.1 1.5 8.2% 25.4% .285 105 4.43 95 2.0
Bryan Woo 116.0 8.9 2.6 1.2 7.1% 23.9% .281 100 4.12 100 1.6
Darren McCaughan 132.7 6.9 2.0 1.2 5.4% 18.3% .292 95 4.36 105 1.5
Andrés Muñoz 58.7 13.7 3.2 0.9 8.8% 37.1% .294 142 2.88 71 1.3
Matt Brash 75.7 12.0 4.4 1.0 11.3% 31.0% .303 116 3.59 86 1.3
Emerson Hancock 95.3 6.9 3.3 1.1 8.5% 17.8% .285 93 4.62 108 0.9
James Joyce 75.3 7.4 2.4 1.2 6.4% 19.7% .282 96 4.53 104 0.9
Ethan Lindow 91.0 5.8 2.8 1.3 7.1% 15.1% .286 91 4.90 110 0.8
Nick Davila 96.7 6.0 2.5 1.2 6.5% 15.3% .292 90 4.73 111 0.8
Tyson Miller 72.3 8.2 3.4 1.1 8.7% 21.2% .291 98 4.33 103 0.7
Juan Mercedes 79.0 7.1 2.8 1.3 7.4% 18.3% .293 91 4.63 110 0.7
Prelander Berroa 74.0 10.3 5.5 1.2 13.6% 25.7% .290 94 4.66 106 0.7
Taylor Dollard 85.7 6.7 2.4 1.4 6.3% 17.5% .287 87 4.71 115 0.6
José Rodríguez 80.0 6.1 3.0 1.2 7.7% 15.5% .291 89 4.78 112 0.5
Trent Thornton 62.3 7.9 3.0 1.3 7.9% 20.7% .285 102 4.47 98 0.5
Blas Castano 73.3 6.5 3.2 1.1 8.2% 16.7% .291 88 4.80 113 0.5
Eduard Bazardo 54.0 8.3 2.7 1.2 7.1% 22.1% .285 103 4.14 97 0.5
Gabe Speier 52.7 8.9 2.1 1.2 5.6% 24.1% .287 110 3.92 91 0.4
Cody Bolton 68.3 7.9 4.0 1.2 10.0% 19.9% .293 92 4.66 109 0.4
Logan Allen 91.7 6.8 3.7 1.2 9.4% 17.1% .289 86 4.92 117 0.4
Shawn Semple 86.0 4.8 2.9 1.4 7.4% 12.1% .293 84 5.20 119 0.4
Tommy Milone 84.0 6.5 3.2 1.5 8.1% 16.5% .297 84 5.08 119 0.3
Dominic Leone 52.3 9.3 3.6 1.4 9.4% 24.1% .283 104 4.44 96 0.3
Konner Wade 66.7 4.9 2.6 1.4 6.5% 12.3% .304 85 5.07 118 0.3
Casey Sadler 41.3 7.8 2.8 1.3 7.5% 20.7% .274 100 4.56 100 0.2
Justin Topa 55.0 7.7 2.6 1.1 6.8% 20.1% .296 97 4.29 103 0.2
Jackson Kowar 82.3 8.7 4.4 1.2 10.7% 21.4% .303 86 4.72 117 0.2
Ty Adcock 38.0 6.9 1.7 1.2 4.5% 18.8% .274 102 4.15 98 0.2
Tayler Saucedo 49.0 9.0 3.7 1.1 9.5% 23.2% .286 98 4.38 102 0.2
Marcus Walden 61.7 5.5 3.5 1.3 8.7% 13.8% .297 83 5.18 120 0.1
Matt Festa 41.3 9.4 4.1 1.1 10.8% 24.4% .278 100 4.34 100 0.1
Ryder Ryan 49.7 8.0 3.6 1.1 9.3% 20.4% .294 95 4.50 105 0.1
Blake Weiman 49.3 7.1 2.6 1.3 6.7% 18.6% .291 94 4.49 106 0.1
Jarod Bayless 38.7 8.1 2.3 1.2 6.2% 21.7% .284 93 4.44 107 0.0
Eric Stout 41.7 8.6 4.8 1.3 11.8% 21.4% .299 83 5.08 120 0.0
Zach Muckenhirn 47.3 6.5 3.6 1.1 9.0% 16.1% .297 90 4.73 111 0.0
Peyton Alford 43.0 9.2 4.6 1.3 11.5% 22.9% .293 90 4.77 112 0.0
Juan Then 48.7 5.7 3.5 1.3 8.7% 14.2% .297 86 5.08 117 0.0
A.J. Puckett 59.0 6.4 3.8 1.2 9.5% 16.0% .290 85 5.17 118 0.0
Rob Kaminsky 37.7 6.5 3.3 1.2 8.3% 16.1% .297 86 4.90 116 -0.1
Fred Villarreal 47.7 5.9 3.4 1.1 8.5% 14.7% .294 84 5.04 119 -0.1
Nolan Blackwood 47.0 5.7 3.3 1.1 8.3% 14.6% .291 90 4.85 111 -0.1
Kyle Hill 32.7 8.0 5.2 1.1 12.7% 19.3% .287 88 4.91 114 -0.1
Carlos Vargas 49.3 6.9 4.4 1.3 10.9% 17.2% .289 84 5.20 119 -0.1
Nick Wittgren 49.7 6.7 2.9 1.3 7.4% 17.2% .289 88 4.81 114 -0.2
Mike Flynn 36.0 8.0 3.5 1.3 9.0% 20.5% .284 83 5.20 121 -0.2
Taylor Williams 40.0 6.8 3.8 1.1 9.6% 16.9% .293 83 5.03 120 -0.2
Travis Kuhn 47.7 7.4 4.3 1.1 10.8% 18.4% .286 84 5.02 119 -0.2
Jake Haberer 37.7 7.2 5.3 1.4 12.6% 17.1% .292 79 5.72 127 -0.2
Brett de Geus 40.3 6.0 3.6 1.1 8.9% 15.0% .295 80 5.09 124 -0.3
Collin Kober 50.3 7.5 3.8 1.3 9.4% 18.8% .291 82 5.18 121 -0.3
Dayeison Arias 43.3 8.7 5.4 1.2 13.3% 21.4% .286 83 5.26 121 -0.3
Ben Onyshko 46.0 7.0 4.3 1.4 10.6% 17.3% .277 75 6.02 133 -0.4
Tyler Driver 45.0 5.4 5.0 1.2 12.1% 13.0% .283 71 5.99 141 -0.7

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Luis Castillo Justin Verlander Dizzy Trout Bartolo Colon
Logan Gilbert Marcus Stroman Jameson Taillon Jack McDowell
George Kirby Jameson Taillon Noah Syndergaard Gerrit Cole
Bryce Miller Zach Plesac Zach Eflin Luis Castillo
Robbie Ray Chris Short Rube Walberg Ron Guidry
Bryan Woo Bo McLaughlin Kevin Gausman Michael Pineda
Darren McCaughan Marcos Lopez Aaron Brooks 브룩스 Nick Blackburn
Andrés Muñoz Antonio Osuna Cody Allen Dick Radatz
Matt Brash Calvin Schiraldi Trevor Rosenthal Larry Sherry
Emerson Hancock Allen Levrault Jeff Shaver Tim Mauser
James Joyce Vladimir Nabokov Thomas Pynchon Jorge Luis Borges
Ethan Lindow Kurt Isenberg Cliff Young Sean Gilmartin
Nick Davila Zach Eflin Walker Lockett David Seeman
Tyson Miller A.J. Morris Steve Narleski James Horsford
Juan Mercedes Gonzalez Germen Joey Wagman Luis Andujar
Prelander Berroa Bill Wertz Bud Norris Robert Saitz
Taylor Dollard Vince Molesky Gabe Mosser Liam O’Sullivan
José Rodríguez Cole De Vries Albert Suarez Brian Bass배스
Trent Thornton Roman Colon 콜론 Lerrin LaGrow Aaron Rakers
Blas Castano Glen Crable Georges Maranda Christopher Maneff
Eduard Bazardo Casey Fien Jose Cabrera Brian Wolfe
Gabe Speier Brian Shouse Steven Okert Ian Ostlund
Cody Bolton Marco Carrillo Brian Edmondson Ed Palmquist
Logan Allen Mike Connolly Rob Zastryzny Trent Peterson
Shawn Semple Greg Kallevig Larry Shikles Ken Carlyle
Tommy Milone Paul Splittorff Bruce Chen Tom Glavine
Dominic Leone Guillermo Mota Jumbo Diaz Santiago Casilla
Konner Wade Jim Barr Omar Bencomo Mark Knudson
Casey Sadler Hugh Casey Eddie Watt Elias Sosa
Justin Topa LaTroy Hawkins Brandon Kintzler Braden Looper
Jackson Kowar Lisalverto Bonilla 보니야 Tim Crabbe Fernando Rodriguez
Ty Adcock Edgmer Escalona Matt Capps Rich Standart
Tayler Saucedo Mike Stanton Tug McGraw Rich Rodriguez
Marcus Walden Julio Moreno Guillermo Moscoso Adrian Zabala
Matt Festa Emil Kush Erik Goeddel Randy Veres
Ryder Ryan Jose Capellan카페얀 Jeff Darwin Nick Mattioni
Blake Weiman Dave Schuler Steve Smetana Jim Patterson
Jarod Bayless Felix Roque Steve Kealey Skip Wiley
Eric Stout Scott Rice Keith Hessler John Curtis
Zach Muckenhirn Conor Spink Tito Stewart Ken Grundt
Peyton Alford Bob Cluck Mark Lukasiewicz Randy Harvey
Juan Then Rod Seip Paul Imig Tim Birdsong
A.J. Puckett Carlos Frias Connor Robertson Jorge Reyes
Rob Kaminsky Ken Page Derek Dace Brian Henderson
Fred Villarreal Kurt Spomer Keith Spicer Martin Sotelo
Nolan Blackwood R.D. Spiehs Dale Plummer Mike Marbry
Kyle Hill David Wong Rick Raether Keith Glauber
Carlos Vargas Angel Nesbitt Brad Blackwell Jason Temple
Nick Wittgren Joe Black Jack Lamabe Felipe Arredondo
Mike Flynn Matt Stites J.R. Graham Michael Mathwig
Taylor Williams Erubiel Gonzalez Chris Bodishbaugh Ramon Troncoso
Travis Kuhn Paul Thorp Frank Batista Federico Baez
Jake Haberer Jay Yennaco Ryan Baker Jon Searles
Brett de Geus Mayckol Guaipe Matt Stites Chad Smith
Collin Kober Tim Sommer Jon Velasquez Chandler Barnard
Dayeison Arias Zach Simons Andre Scrubb Doug Neuenschwander
Ben Onyshko Bob Sykes Anthony Ferrari Len Whitehouse
Tyler Driver Fred Covey Steve Rousey Daniel Klosicki

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Luis Castillo .226 .298 .379 .214 .264 .327 5.1 2.8 2.76 3.83
Logan Gilbert .225 .287 .338 .250 .293 .423 4.8 2.5 3.02 4.05
George Kirby .237 .273 .368 .257 .289 .414 4.4 2.5 2.99 3.89
Bryce Miller .255 .309 .416 .230 .279 .378 3.2 1.4 3.37 4.36
Robbie Ray .220 .262 .381 .242 .315 .435 2.8 0.8 3.39 4.70
Bryan Woo .248 .321 .410 .219 .284 .373 2.5 0.8 3.47 4.74
Darren McCaughan .245 .301 .398 .273 .315 .455 2.2 0.7 3.85 4.85
Andrés Muñoz .192 .282 .337 .191 .274 .309 2.2 0.3 2.14 4.05
Matt Brash .200 .308 .328 .226 .315 .365 2.1 0.3 2.92 4.44
Emerson Hancock .250 .323 .413 .254 .321 .408 1.5 0.4 3.99 4.90
James Joyce .237 .307 .422 .255 .322 .395 1.4 0.4 3.71 4.86
Ethan Lindow .250 .309 .384 .272 .331 .464 1.2 0.2 4.15 5.09
Nick Davila .265 .333 .432 .269 .318 .435 1.2 0.1 4.18 5.16
Tyson Miller .242 .322 .379 .248 .315 .416 1.3 0.2 3.67 4.84
Juan Mercedes .259 .316 .432 .260 .328 .434 1.1 0.2 4.10 5.17
Prelander Berroa .244 .363 .405 .213 .316 .373 1.2 -0.1 3.86 5.28
Taylor Dollard .250 .312 .400 .268 .316 .470 1.2 0.0 4.15 5.33
José Rodríguez .277 .340 .454 .258 .313 .421 1.1 0.0 4.10 5.16
Trent Thornton .248 .323 .425 .246 .298 .408 0.9 0.0 3.51 4.79
Blas Castano .295 .361 .465 .231 .315 .381 0.9 0.0 4.22 5.22
Eduard Bazardo .240 .306 .400 .241 .297 .398 0.9 0.0 3.30 4.83
Gabe Speier .205 .266 .356 .256 .307 .419 0.9 -0.1 3.09 4.58
Cody Bolton .261 .341 .420 .243 .323 .405 0.8 -0.1 4.02 5.15
Logan Allen .243 .315 .378 .264 .347 .440 0.9 -0.3 4.31 5.46
Shawn Semple .283 .335 .453 .279 .335 .468 0.8 -0.1 4.53 5.39
Tommy Milone .262 .330 .476 .276 .331 .461 0.9 -0.2 4.34 5.67
Dominic Leone .247 .340 .435 .226 .286 .391 0.8 -0.3 3.12 5.08
Konner Wade .270 .326 .437 .306 .348 .503 0.6 -0.1 4.40 5.38
Casey Sadler .247 .313 .452 .233 .302 .384 0.5 -0.2 3.39 5.21
Justin Topa .255 .322 .406 .255 .308 .418 0.7 -0.4 3.53 5.31
Jackson Kowar .250 .337 .439 .253 .348 .402 0.8 -0.6 4.22 5.60
Ty Adcock .250 .299 .403 .240 .275 .413 0.4 -0.2 3.50 4.97
Tayler Saucedo .210 .300 .290 .246 .333 .437 0.7 -0.3 3.40 5.08
Marcus Walden .270 .339 .459 .283 .346 .442 0.5 -0.3 4.41 5.68
Matt Festa .235 .342 .382 .216 .300 .375 0.5 -0.3 3.46 5.05
Ryder Ryan .280 .372 .451 .225 .298 .369 0.5 -0.4 3.72 5.12
Blake Weiman .232 .280 .391 .272 .328 .448 0.5 -0.4 3.71 5.28
Jarod Bayless .284 .360 .463 .207 .283 .354 0.4 -0.3 3.68 5.18
Eric Stout .212 .317 .365 .270 .369 .450 0.4 -0.5 4.30 6.01
Zach Muckenhirn .250 .329 .422 .274 .336 .427 0.4 -0.3 3.96 5.19
Peyton Alford .245 .355 .415 .239 .331 .407 0.4 -0.3 3.92 5.45
Juan Then .298 .368 .500 .259 .317 .411 0.3 -0.3 4.36 5.35
A.J. Puckett .267 .355 .410 .258 .338 .445 0.3 -0.5 4.40 5.58
Rob Kaminsky .244 .320 .356 .276 .347 .467 0.2 -0.4 4.14 5.45
Fred Villarreal .274 .354 .464 .264 .336 .406 0.2 -0.4 4.42 5.38
Nolan Blackwood .299 .375 .506 .245 .300 .373 0.2 -0.5 4.08 5.31
Kyle Hill .254 .353 .407 .235 .338 .397 0.1 -0.5 4.14 5.55
Carlos Vargas .264 .358 .484 .252 .333 .379 0.2 -0.5 4.46 5.49
Nick Wittgren .270 .340 .449 .252 .314 .411 0.1 -0.6 4.15 5.54
Mike Flynn .254 .367 .448 .236 .333 .389 0.1 -0.5 4.40 5.89
Taylor Williams .279 .380 .471 .244 .324 .378 0.1 -0.6 4.34 5.64
Travis Kuhn .265 .351 .434 .235 .342 .392 0.1 -0.6 4.43 5.50
Jake Haberer .261 .363 .449 .263 .368 .450 0.1 -0.6 4.60 6.09
Brett de Geus .257 .329 .459 .276 .366 .402 0.0 -0.5 4.56 5.64
Collin Kober .287 .394 .471 .227 .312 .382 0.1 -0.8 4.30 5.76
Dayeison Arias .260 .367 .390 .222 .349 .422 0.1 -0.8 4.27 5.96
Ben Onyshko .220 .352 .322 .264 .384 .479 -0.1 -0.8 4.85 6.17
Tyler Driver .289 .402 .461 .245 .355 .412 -0.4 -1.1 5.30 6.55

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombonemember
2 months ago

I shouldn’t be hard to find a DH who upgrades the lineup. Rhys Hoskins and Joc Pederson are both good hitters who shouldn’t cost too much. Justin Turner definitely won’t; he won’t be an impact hitter but he will deepen the lineup.

The problem is that they need to upgrade some set of 2 infield spots and 2 corner outfield spots. They’re pretty clearly signaling that the infield is going to be some set of Moore, Urias, Caballero, and Rojas. I don’t trust any of those guys, but it’s deep enough that if one or two of them are better than expected they can just use those guys more.

But then that leaves the outfield and all of the available players out there are the sorts of guys that Dipoto seems to be trying to avoid. Bellinger is going to get a ten zillion dollar contract, Soler and Pham can’t field, Teoscar Hernandez strikes out too much. That leaves…Lourdes Gurriel? Whose career-high WAR came this past year at…2.1? It feels like the Mariners probably don’t have many options except hoping they can swing a trade for someone like Randy Arozarena, which has costs and isn’t a certain bet either.

3cardmontymember
2 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I can guarantee it won’t be Teoscar, since they already failed to make a QO to him despite the fact that he almost certainly would’ve declined. The prospect of paying retail for an average player was simply too terrifying to abide the remote chance that he accepted.

casey jmember
2 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Jung Hoo Lee would have been a good fit here, and he will be in SF too.

sadtrombonemember
2 months ago
Reply to  casey j

I agree. Teams like the Giants and Mariners are the sorts of teams who should be in on younger free-agent position player types. I expect both will make a serious run at Juan Soto next offseason, along with the Red Sox, Yankees, and maybe the Angels or Mets or Blue Jays. But only one of these teams can sign him…

68FCmember
2 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Unless there is a change in Mariners ownership or RSN situation, I expect they are more likely to trade Julio Rodriguez for salary relief than make a run at Juan Soto.

thebearproofsuit
2 months ago
Reply to  68FC

they’ve already been ‘doing him a favor’ keeping him around this long

Robertmember
2 months ago
Reply to  68FC

Totally agree with this, sadly.

68FCmember
2 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Lourdes Gurriel is the obvious “big” acquisition for the M’s this offseason given the focus on reducing K rate in the lineup. I expect beyond that they are more than happy to stick with Canzone in right and use DH as a rest spot/play a random guy who should probably be in the minors.

Remember this is a contending team whose opening day DH last year was Tommy La Stella and not because of any injury, just because that was Plan A.

Cool Lester Smoothmember
2 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I will say that the Rojas projections from ZiPS seem a little insane to me – he’s put up 5.7 WAR in his last 1410 PA…and his 80th percentile is 1.7 WAR?