2024 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the final team is the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

In a certain way, this team is a bit more depressing than the Oakland Athletics. No, they’re not trying to peace out of Chicago, but I think the A’s front office is probably more realistic about the team’s immediate chances of winning than the Southsiders are. It’s always hard to gauge exactly what a team truly thinks of their outlook, but I get the impression that the White Sox think they will be at least halfway competitive in 2024. Realistically, though, a lot of things would have to go their way, even in a weak division like the AL Central.

The Pale Hose have a one-dude offense in a sport where that isn’t a thing. Luis Robert Jr. is in his prime right now, probably at his peak form. If the White Sox were actually rebuilding, he’s the guy they could trade to start meaningfully restocking the farm system. Instead, he’ll be a key cog in their quest to win 70 games.

Now, Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez could upgrade this to a three-dude offense, but in truth, there are big questions surrounding both players. Moncada’s health isn’t a given; he has suffered myriad nagging injuries the last two years. What’s more, it can no longer be taken for granted that if you just get him healthy, he’ll produce like he did in 2019 or 2021. The team has finally gotten Jiménez’s glove off the field in most games, but a .272/.317/.441 line is abysmal for a player with no defensive value in a home run friendly park. He can still crush pitches in his wheelhouse, but he swings at too much junk, and at 27, you can’t really dismiss that tendency by appealing to his youth anymore.

Elsewhere on the depth chart, Andrew Benintendi was terrible last season; Guaranteed Rate is a poor fit for getting the most out of his limited offensive game. Meanwhile, the Andrew Vaughn breakout gets less likely every year. As for the rest of the positions, the White Sox have basically used a few trades and free agency to accumulate a whole bunch of inexpensive waiver-wire types with limited upside. I guess we’re going to go through the Oscar Colás experiment again, but his .809 OPS for Triple-A Charlotte wasn’t even good.

On the plus side, ZiPS is starting to come around on Colson Montgomery, to the extent that it now likes him slightly better than its longtime favorite, Bryan Ramos. However, there are still questions remaining. Montgomery got a lot of his value from walks, which isn’t necessarily a great sign for a minor leaguer. And we really haven’t gotten to see that much of him due to injuries. Still, a 22-year-old shortstop who has only played six weeks of Double-A ball boasting a 20% chance at a 111 OPS+ is quite the auspicious sign, even if his bottom-line 2024 projection isn’t astounding. Fans need something to look forward to!

Pitchers

Well, they haven’t traded Dylan Cease yet, so the bottom has only mostly fallen out on this group. I guess Cristian Mena ranking this highly on the projection list is sort of a good thing? Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen feel like pitchers acquired mainly so that games will actually end, and it’s hard to have much confidence in Michael Soroka staying consistently healthy until we actually see it.

Some years ago, I mentioned that there were two pitching prospects in the minors who had very bimodal projections, meaning they were much more likely to be either awesome or terrible than they were to be simply middling. Those pitchers were Tanner Scott and Michael Kopech. Scott seems to have fulfilled the former possibility, finally nailing down his command and having an elite 2023 season. Kopech, unfortunately, looks a lot worse than he did three or four years ago. It’s a complicated case and certainly involves more than injury, but the projections are now pretty bearish on him. I’d still start him for now — him struggling will likely have next to no effect on Chicago’s playoff odds — but I think we’re nearing the point where if he puts it together, it’s going to have to be in the late innings.

ZiPS only projects four White Sox pitchers with an ERA+ of 100 or better, and three of them are in the bullpen: Garrett Crochet, Gregory Santos, and Tanner Banks. The Sox should give Crochet every opportunity to start — he’d have a lot more value to the team if it works out and weakening the bullpen to give him a shot at the rotation has little practical danger. ZiPS is sold that the free passes are behind Santos; both his first-strike percentage and out-of-zone swing percentage, two leading indicators of future walk rate, were above average, lending credence to the idea that his low 2023 walk numbers weren’t a mirage. The elbow soreness that cost him the last week of the season and might creep into the early part of early 2024 is the more concerning thing. The computer doesn’t see any no-name relievers ready to surprise here.

Overall, the White Sox have a few interesting players, but will likely contend with the Rockies and Athletics to be the worst team in baseball in 2024, even if they hang on to Cease. ZiPS projects 65-70 wins for the Sox, but a Cease trade could put them “over the top” in this depressing footrace.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.