2024 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

This is hardly an impressive set of offensive projections, but given that Detroit ranked 13th in the American League in runs scored in 2023, it would be odd to expect them to be that great at this point in the offseason. And in contrast to a team like the Royals, the Tigers have a lot of interesting players, most with actual upside. ZiPS likes Riley Greene, but that’s nothing new, as he’s long been the system’s favorite Tigers hitter. The computer is a believer in Spencer Torkelson’s second-half power being closer to his actual abilities. Tork was one of the biggest underperformers in the zStats that ZiPS uses as part of establishing a player’s baseline. Now, it’s not exactly projecting him to become Matt Olson or anything, but after 2022 and the early parts of 2023, this constitutes a pretty good comeback. Mark Canha is in his decline phase, but he’ll still at least get on base and is relatively flexible on the diamond, though he’s more of an emergency option at third base and in center field at this point.

Javier Báez is the only really depressing veteran hitter projection here. I can’t shake the feeling that he’s got one last season or so of relevance in there somewhere, but that could just be a relic of my memories from before pitchers figured out how to absolutely shut Báez down. ZiPS isn’t really all that keen on Matt Vierling, and third base might be a useful place for the Tigers to look at upgrading this offseason. A Jeimer Candelario reunion would be fun if he’s into it, though the team may simply utilize Colt Keith and Jace Jung at second and third, depending on how their fielding shakes out. ZiPS is very interested in Justyn-Henry Malloy as a hitter, but it absolutely detests his defense at third.

It makes me sad to say, but even with a very ordinary DH situation, the team picks up one or two wins a year just from not having to play Miguel Cabrera.

Detroit will still likely finish in the bottom half of the league in runs scored, but there are players worth watching here.

Pitchers

Tarik Skubal came back from flexor tendon surgery to be one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season, and I remain surprised how little he was talked about. He came back throwing harder and with better command than he’d previously had in the majors, making me wonder if they replaced a tendon with an industrial spring. Whatever the cause, ZiPS is into it, though it’s obviously hedging its bets about Skubal’s health. There aren’t any real standouts in the rotation, including recent signee Kenta Maeda, but ZiPS sees the Tigers with a lot of starters just below league average, and the vast majority of them are in their mid-20s or younger, so it’s likely a few of them will break out. The computer is especially interested in Sawyer Gipson-Long and Jackson Jobe.

If our depth charts are right about the pecking order in the bullpen, the Tigers are poised to get the most of their relief corps, and ZiPS especially likes Will Vest and Tyler Holton. The quality of the ‘pen drops off a bit as you get to the back of it, but that’s normal for a team that’s still rebuilding. One or two of the starters who don’t make the rotation might serve to fill that need.

Overall, the Tigers look like a roughly .500 team, but their talent is made up of younger players, so they have a decent win ceiling, though I don’t think there’s much chance they go the route of the 2023 Orioles in 2024. In the AL East, this forecast would mean fighting with the Red Sox, but in the AL Central, the Tigers are actually playoff relevant, though they’re certainly far from the favorite.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.