2024 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Kansas City Royals.

Batters

Bobby Witt Jr. is the saving grace of this lineup, the only player on the Royals with a high chance of being elite at whatever it is he does. If the team isn’t preparing a large extension for Witt before he hits arbitration, they’re doing something seriously wrong. Sadly, given that it’s the Royals, there’s a good chance of them doing something seriously wrong.

I wouldn’t say there are any actual highlights elsewhere, but there are pockets of respectability. The low depth chart number for first base is more Nick Pratto than Vinnie Pasquantino, with the latter projected to a .278/.353/.481 line, but coming off a torn labrum in his right shoulder that cost him most of 2023. Maikel Garcia looks to be an average third baseman, though without much of a ceiling, and Kyle Isbel showed enough defense that he might be a poor man’s Kevin Kiermaier. But overall, this offense will likely be comfortably in the bottom third of offenses in baseball.

Early on, it looked like Pratto was finally going to work out, but after standing at .295/.398/.429 after his first month in the majors, he hit a miserable .199/.257/.313 the rest of the way. Basically, the strained groin that cost him about a month was the highlight of his second half. The team has just about thrown in the towel on MJ Melendez as a catcher, which is a problem, as it looks increasingly likely that he won’t hit well enough to either make up for his poor outfield defense or be a particularly good option at DH.

There’s no obvious savior on the horizon, though Blake Mitchell could eventually grow into that role.

Pitchers

The pitching staff looks a lot like the lineup, only with no equivalent to Witt, making them like the pitcher version of the never-produced Lucky Charms cereal, Oops! All Oat Things. ZiPS agrees with Steamer that Cole Ragans is the class of a rather mediocre bunch, though it still remains to be seen just how he’ll fare as a full-time starter in the majors. Brady Singer is a perfectly adequate mid-rotation innings-eater, but one without much upside as a two-pitch guy who struggles to punch out batters. Kyle Wright is out with a serious shoulder injury that will almost certainly cost him the entire 2024 season, which is why the Royals were able to pick him up for Jackson Kowar.

The quality drops off from there. Kris Bubic was looking like a decent no. 4 or 5 starter, but he’s out until sometime next summer due to his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, ZiPS wants nothing to do with Jordan Lyles and only likes Daniel Lynch IV a bit more.

Over in the bullpen, James McArthur gets a split projection, but used only as a reliever, the ZiPS forecast for his ERA would improve to 4.07. The current bullpen projection pulls off the rare feat of getting a below-replacement projection; I can’t remember the last time that happened. After Nick Anderson’s 4.06 ERA, ZiPS doesn’t project any of the pitchers currently ticketed for relief to have an ERA better than 4.50. There are also no “ZiPS Special” candidates who are being overlooked by the team, either.

So what does this all add up to? A 90-loss team, something Royals fans are sadly familiar with. And unfortunately, the Royals are the worst type of 90-loss team: one without much in the way of upside. The organization has been a mess for a while now, despite playing in the weakest division in baseball. The Royals need to drastically change how they’re run if they want to set a more ambitious long-term goal than having two good seasons every 20 years.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.