2024 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Kansas City Royals.

Batters

Bobby Witt Jr. is the saving grace of this lineup, the only player on the Royals with a high chance of being elite at whatever it is he does. If the team isn’t preparing a large extension for Witt before he hits arbitration, they’re doing something seriously wrong. Sadly, given that it’s the Royals, there’s a good chance of them doing something seriously wrong.

I wouldn’t say there are any actual highlights elsewhere, but there are pockets of respectability. The low depth chart number for first base is more Nick Pratto than Vinnie Pasquantino, with the latter projected to a .278/.353/.481 line, but coming off a torn labrum in his right shoulder that cost him most of 2023. Maikel Garcia looks to be an average third baseman, though without much of a ceiling, and Kyle Isbel showed enough defense that he might be a poor man’s Kevin Kiermaier. But overall, this offense will likely be comfortably in the bottom third of offenses in baseball.

Early on, it looked like Pratto was finally going to work out, but after standing at .295/.398/.429 after his first month in the majors, he hit a miserable .199/.257/.313 the rest of the way. Basically, the strained groin that cost him about a month was the highlight of his second half. The team has just about thrown in the towel on MJ Melendez as a catcher, which is a problem, as it looks increasingly likely that he won’t hit well enough to either make up for his poor outfield defense or be a particularly good option at DH.

There’s no obvious savior on the horizon, though Blake Mitchell could eventually grow into that role.

Pitchers

The pitching staff looks a lot like the lineup, only with no equivalent to Witt, making them like the pitcher version of the never-produced Lucky Charms cereal, Oops! All Oat Things. ZiPS agrees with Steamer that Cole Ragans is the class of a rather mediocre bunch, though it still remains to be seen just how he’ll fare as a full-time starter in the majors. Brady Singer is a perfectly adequate mid-rotation innings-eater, but one without much upside as a two-pitch guy who struggles to punch out batters. Kyle Wright is out with a serious shoulder injury that will almost certainly cost him the entire 2024 season, which is why the Royals were able to pick him up for Jackson Kowar.

The quality drops off from there. Kris Bubic was looking like a decent no. 4 or 5 starter, but he’s out until sometime next summer due to his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, ZiPS wants nothing to do with Jordan Lyles and only likes Daniel Lynch IV a bit more.

Over in the bullpen, James McArthur gets a split projection, but used only as a reliever, the ZiPS forecast for his ERA would improve to 4.07. The current bullpen projection pulls off the rare feat of getting a below-replacement projection; I can’t remember the last time that happened. After Nick Anderson’s 4.06 ERA, ZiPS doesn’t project any of the pitchers currently ticketed for relief to have an ERA better than 4.50. There are also no “ZiPS Special” candidates who are being overlooked by the team, either.

So what does this all add up to? A 90-loss team, something Royals fans are sadly familiar with. And unfortunately, the Royals are the worst type of 90-loss team: one without much in the way of upside. The organization has been a mess for a while now, despite playing in the weakest division in baseball. The Royals need to drastically change how they’re run if they want to set a more ambitious long-term goal than having two good seasons every 20 years.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Bobby Witt Jr. R 24 SS 670 615 97 169 35 7 26 97 41 127 35 10
Maikel Garcia R 24 3B 583 528 72 137 27 4 6 55 46 118 20 7
Vinnie Pasquantino L 26 1B 468 414 53 115 29 2 17 62 45 60 1 1
Devin Mann R 27 3B 501 439 57 104 31 1 12 51 50 133 2 2
Dairon Blanco R 31 CF 387 348 54 91 15 4 7 47 26 90 36 8
Kyle Isbel L 27 CF 405 370 57 94 21 4 9 46 28 84 10 3
Samad Taylor R 25 2B 450 393 60 99 20 3 8 46 45 110 29 7
Salvador Perez R 34 C 544 507 58 131 22 1 25 82 22 131 0 1
Tyler Gentry R 25 RF 519 451 55 111 24 2 11 64 52 129 8 2
Nick Loftin R 25 3B 486 439 63 114 22 2 10 56 34 78 8 3
Michael Massey L 26 2B 489 448 57 114 25 1 15 60 27 105 6 2
Drew Waters B 25 CF 455 412 61 101 22 5 12 49 37 137 16 4
Edward Olivares R 28 LF 417 382 57 106 21 3 13 50 25 73 10 5
Freddy Fermin R 29 C 310 280 36 71 13 1 9 38 25 63 0 0
Cayden Wallace R 22 3B 552 507 63 123 26 6 9 55 37 126 9 4
Nate Eaton R 27 CF 425 387 49 89 16 2 8 44 28 108 19 3
Morgan McCullough L 26 3B 354 313 34 66 15 2 5 35 29 107 5 3
Logan Porter R 28 C 429 374 45 84 17 0 9 44 47 116 0 1
Tyler Tolbert R 26 SS 517 471 66 107 18 8 5 47 32 139 26 3
Clay Dungan L 28 2B 419 374 51 90 16 3 4 39 35 84 11 3
Nelson Velázquez R 25 CF 499 455 62 108 22 2 20 66 37 153 8 3
Angelo Castellano R 29 SS 362 323 38 77 15 1 7 36 31 71 6 3
Franmil Reyes R 28 DH 405 366 43 91 16 2 16 51 33 118 1 1
Javier Vaz L 23 LF 504 452 54 120 19 5 5 45 43 59 15 3
Adeiny Hechavarría R 35 SS 171 159 22 41 11 0 4 18 10 38 1 1
Matt Duffy R 33 3B 280 255 26 68 11 0 3 24 19 53 2 1
Nick Pratto L 25 1B 513 448 60 102 23 4 16 62 52 176 3 2
John Rave L 26 CF 491 440 53 100 17 3 9 47 45 144 7 4
Gavin Cross L 23 CF 401 363 43 78 21 3 10 43 31 126 11 2
Peyton Wilson B 24 2B 515 466 56 113 24 4 6 55 36 114 11 4
Jermaine Palacios R 27 SS 393 363 45 85 17 0 11 43 24 111 6 5
Tucker Bradley L 26 LF 401 356 46 89 19 4 5 41 34 90 8 3
Jose Briceno R 31 C 164 155 14 35 7 0 4 17 6 43 0 1
MJ Melendez L 25 RF 568 503 73 125 27 4 23 72 58 149 4 4
Jimmy Govern R 27 3B 284 264 31 62 15 1 5 31 13 59 2 1
Matt Beaty L 31 1B 273 239 32 63 11 1 4 30 20 49 1 1
Dillan Shrum R 26 1B 367 310 34 61 11 1 10 48 36 140 1 1
Carter Jensen L 20 C 516 450 52 93 24 3 8 45 61 139 5 2
River Town L 24 LF 412 361 42 86 15 2 6 45 34 78 11 2
Tyler Cropley R 28 C 161 144 11 31 6 1 2 15 11 41 0 1
Jackie Bradley Jr. L 34 CF 328 300 32 59 15 1 5 25 22 82 3 2
Jorge Bonifacio R 31 RF 444 399 44 90 19 2 11 48 37 114 3 1
Jake Means R 28 3B 355 320 31 62 15 1 6 32 29 108 3 1
Parker Bates L 26 LF 315 285 28 61 10 2 3 27 21 83 5 4
CJ Alexander L 27 1B 382 357 43 78 19 2 12 41 21 114 5 2
Leonel Valera R 24 SS 434 397 45 87 14 5 7 40 25 142 9 3
Paxton Wallace R 25 1B 159 146 10 31 6 1 1 12 11 46 1 2
Diego Hernandez L 23 CF 399 362 43 85 11 3 3 36 20 104 15 6
Omar Hernandez R 22 C 377 343 42 77 13 1 3 27 24 83 10 5
Jack Reinheimer R 31 SS 289 265 32 57 10 1 1 21 17 84 9 1
Hunter Dozier R 32 3B 432 389 46 88 20 4 12 45 37 116 4 2
Luca Tresh R 24 C 396 362 39 85 15 1 9 40 31 94 1 1
Greyson Jenista L 27 LF 310 282 31 54 10 1 10 31 25 121 2 1
Hayden Dunhurst L 23 C 119 108 6 17 5 1 1 9 7 58 0 1
Jeison Guzmán B 25 DH 280 252 30 51 11 1 5 29 19 99 3 3
Kale Emshoff R 26 1B 372 340 30 71 16 1 8 40 25 127 1 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Bobby Witt Jr. 670 .275 .323 .481 119 .207 .310 1 4.1 .341 107
Maikel Garcia 583 .259 .317 .360 87 .100 .324 11 1.9 .298 67
Vinnie Pasquantino 468 .278 .353 .481 128 .203 .291 -2 1.6 .355 71
Devin Mann 501 .237 .323 .394 98 .157 .313 3 1.6 .314 57
Dairon Blanco 387 .261 .326 .388 97 .126 .335 2 1.5 .313 55
Kyle Isbel 405 .254 .312 .405 97 .151 .307 4 1.5 .311 50
Samad Taylor 450 .252 .334 .379 97 .127 .331 0 1.5 .314 59
Salvador Perez 544 .258 .300 .454 105 .195 .302 -8 1.4 .319 69
Tyler Gentry 519 .246 .334 .381 98 .135 .322 6 1.3 .316 60
Nick Loftin 486 .260 .320 .387 95 .128 .296 1 1.2 .310 57
Michael Massey 489 .254 .304 .415 97 .161 .302 0 1.2 .310 59
Drew Waters 455 .245 .312 .410 98 .165 .338 -1 1.2 .314 58
Edward Olivares 417 .277 .333 .450 114 .173 .314 -1 1.2 .337 61
Freddy Fermin 310 .254 .317 .404 98 .150 .298 -2 1.0 .314 36
Cayden Wallace 552 .243 .299 .371 84 .128 .306 5 0.9 .292 60
Nate Eaton 425 .230 .289 .344 74 .114 .299 6 0.7 .279 44
Morgan McCullough 354 .211 .292 .319 69 .109 .303 10 0.7 .273 31
Logan Porter 429 .225 .319 .342 84 .118 .301 -3 0.6 .297 41
Tyler Tolbert 517 .227 .284 .331 70 .104 .312 3 0.6 .271 51
Clay Dungan 419 .241 .313 .332 79 .091 .301 3 0.6 .288 42
Nelson Velázquez 499 .237 .301 .426 98 .189 .312 -8 0.5 .312 61
Angelo Castellano 362 .238 .311 .356 84 .118 .286 -2 0.5 .296 38
Franmil Reyes 405 .249 .311 .434 103 .186 .323 0 0.4 .320 50
Javier Vaz 504 .265 .334 .363 93 .097 .296 -1 0.4 .309 59
Adeiny Hechavarría 171 .258 .304 .403 94 .145 .316 -1 0.3 .304 20
Matt Duffy 280 .267 .329 .345 87 .078 .327 -1 0.3 .301 30
Nick Pratto 513 .228 .316 .404 98 .176 .336 -1 0.2 .313 59
John Rave 491 .227 .301 .341 77 .114 .317 1 0.2 .284 48
Gavin Cross 401 .215 .284 .372 80 .157 .300 -1 0.2 .286 41
Peyton Wilson 515 .242 .307 .350 82 .107 .309 -3 0.1 .291 54
Jermaine Palacios 393 .234 .283 .372 79 .138 .307 -2 0.1 .285 42
Tucker Bradley 401 .250 .319 .368 90 .118 .322 0 0.1 .303 45
Jose Briceno 164 .226 .262 .348 67 .123 .287 1 0.0 .266 15
MJ Melendez 568 .249 .326 .455 113 .207 .308 -15 0.0 .335 77
Jimmy Govern 284 .235 .283 .356 75 .121 .285 0 0.0 .280 27
Matt Beaty 273 .264 .353 .368 101 .105 .317 -4 -0.1 .323 32
Dillan Shrum 367 .197 .312 .335 80 .139 .319 2 -0.2 .294 33
Carter Jensen 516 .207 .302 .327 75 .120 .281 -8 -0.3 .282 46
River Town 412 .238 .324 .341 85 .102 .289 -3 -0.3 .298 43
Tyler Cropley 161 .215 .288 .313 66 .097 .287 -3 -0.3 .269 13
Jackie Bradley Jr. 328 .197 .260 .303 56 .107 .254 5 -0.3 .251 25
Jorge Bonifacio 444 .226 .295 .366 82 .140 .288 1 -0.3 .289 44
Jake Means 355 .194 .270 .303 59 .109 .272 3 -0.4 .257 27
Parker Bates 315 .214 .276 .295 58 .081 .291 8 -0.4 .256 26
CJ Alexander 382 .218 .264 .384 76 .165 .286 4 -0.5 .279 38
Leonel Valera 434 .219 .274 .332 67 .113 .323 -4 -0.5 .267 39
Paxton Wallace 159 .212 .277 .288 57 .075 .303 2 -0.5 .254 13
Diego Hernandez 399 .235 .283 .307 64 .072 .322 0 -0.6 .262 37
Omar Hernandez 377 .224 .280 .294 60 .070 .288 -3 -0.7 .257 32
Jack Reinheimer 289 .215 .268 .272 50 .057 .311 -1 -0.7 .243 22
Hunter Dozier 432 .226 .296 .391 88 .165 .291 -14 -0.8 .299 47
Luca Tresh 396 .235 .295 .356 80 .122 .293 -15 -0.9 .287 39
Greyson Jenista 310 .191 .261 .340 65 .149 .291 0 -1.0 .265 26
Hayden Dunhurst 119 .157 .214 .250 28 .093 .327 -5 -1.1 .207 6
Jeison Guzmán 280 .202 .271 .313 61 .111 .311 0 -1.1 .260 23
Kale Emshoff 372 .209 .272 .332 66 .124 .307 -7 -1.9 .267 31

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Bobby Witt Jr. Nomar Garciaparra Zoilo Versalles Robin Yount
Maikel Garcia Willie Harris Greg Smith Damion Easley
Vinnie Pasquantino Tino Martinez Craig Cacek Todd Helton
Devin Mann Art Howe Frank Bolick Tom Evans
Dairon Blanco Michael Lang Vince Coleman Kevin Kiermaier
Kyle Isbel Steve Hecht Tom Spencer Lloyd Merriman
Samad Taylor Mike Bucci Kevin Rhomberg Esteban German
Salvador Perez Terry Steinbach Benito Santiago Lance Parrish
Tyler Gentry Sap Randall Russ Morman Rich Becker
Nick Loftin Nestor Velazquez Alex Arias Rico Rossy
Michael Massey Syd O’Brien Kelly Paris Zack Cozart
Drew Waters Jose Gonzalez Pete Milne Tony Scott
Edward Olivares Ethan Allen Tom McCraw Gates Brown
Freddy Fermin Tony Tornay Brad Gulden Gary Bennett
Cayden Wallace Tyler Goeddel Jim Driscoll Jeff Bertoni
Nate Eaton Scott Pratt Alonzo Harris Jacob Hannemann
Morgan McCullough Todd Barlok Joseph DeCandido Nate Eaton
Logan Porter B.J. Waszgis Bob Roselli Dick Rand
Tyler Tolbert Rudy Rufer Jorge Nunez Brent Lillibridge
Clay Dungan Neb Brown Mark McLemore Carlos Febles
Nelson Velázquez Don Demeter Dave Arrington Bill Schlesinger
Angelo Castellano Bill Pecota Matt Williams Jack Santora
Franmil Reyes Gary Gray Bucky Jacobsen Rogelio Alvarez
Javier Vaz Allen Goldis Fred Krase Pin-Chieh Chen
Adeiny Hechavarría Mike Mordecai Darnell Coles Luis Lopez
Matt Duffy Iván De Jesús Jr. Julio Gotay Jamie Burke
Nick Pratto Kevin Maas Charlie Vinson Marv Blaylock
John Rave Deik Scram Whitey Herzog Jermaine Mitchell
Gavin Cross Cecil Rodriques Steven Yost Bob Daggy
Peyton Wilson Jerry Bertolani Chris Dean Marco Scutaro
Jermaine Palacios Don Zimmer Mark Dougherty Benji Gil
Tucker Bradley Jared McDonald James Harris Mitch Longo
Jose Briceno Gustavo Molina Jeff Howell Roger McCardell
MJ Melendez Colby Rasmus José Cruz Jr. Karl Rhodes
Jimmy Govern Joey Wong Seth Taylor Jared Mathis
Matt Beaty Jim Eppard Jim Rushford Steve Clevenger
Dillan Shrum Evan Edwards Eric Crozier Shon Walker
Carter Jensen Joe Nolan Pat Corrales William Madden
River Town John Mountain Brett Nommensen Brian Saltzgaber
Tyler Cropley Eric Brooks Frank Kolarek Chris Hoo
Jackie Bradley Jr. Chris Van Rossum Ira Smith Ralph Rowe
Jorge Bonifacio Walt Moryn Jesus Alfaro Brett Carroll
Jake Means Randall Shelley Matt Howe Stanley Patykula
Parker Bates Brennan Gowens Rick Angell Jeff DeBlieux
CJ Alexander Jayson Drobiak Adam Calderone Matt Macri
Leonel Valera Jackie Hernandez Alejandro James Jerson Perez
Paxton Wallace Jon Schwind Cody Dent Jose Yens
Diego Hernandez Nathan Haynes Jesus Galindo Matt McPhearson
Omar Hernandez Mike Durant Jack Van Natta Zacrey Law
Jack Reinheimer Eric Yelding Dalphie Correa Eric Stamets
Hunter Dozier Tom Heintzelman Andy Sheets Dale Berra
Luca Tresh Pedro Lopez Ronn Reynolds Tony Auferio
Greyson Jenista Andy Brown Tyler Horan William Thomas
Hayden Dunhurst Juan Espino Michael Criscione Jaime Malave
Jeison Guzmán Zach Lavy Jason Frome Rich Tunison
Kale Emshoff Steve Jackson Luke Anders Mark Threlkeld

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Bobby Witt Jr. .301 .345 .542 139 5.9 .250 .298 .435 99 2.5
Maikel Garcia .285 .343 .407 105 3.2 .233 .290 .323 70 0.6
Vinnie Pasquantino .306 .379 .538 150 2.8 .250 .324 .429 109 0.5
Devin Mann .262 .350 .443 116 2.7 .210 .297 .344 77 0.3
Dairon Blanco .290 .353 .433 116 2.5 .235 .298 .334 75 0.5
Kyle Isbel .281 .338 .465 117 2.4 .227 .281 .356 78 0.5
Samad Taylor .277 .362 .425 116 2.5 .223 .306 .334 79 0.4
Salvador Perez .287 .324 .503 125 2.7 .231 .272 .400 84 0.0
Tyler Gentry .274 .359 .429 117 2.5 .217 .308 .337 82 0.4
Nick Loftin .288 .352 .443 117 2.6 .229 .293 .342 76 0.1
Michael Massey .280 .329 .462 116 2.4 .230 .280 .371 79 0.2
Drew Waters .273 .338 .461 118 2.3 .219 .285 .360 79 0.1
Edward Olivares .303 .361 .500 134 2.2 .250 .308 .394 95 0.2
Freddy Fermin .285 .347 .455 121 1.9 .227 .294 .354 81 0.3
Cayden Wallace .269 .329 .413 103 2.2 .217 .273 .327 66 -0.2
Nate Eaton .255 .316 .390 93 1.8 .205 .263 .304 57 -0.2
Morgan McCullough .242 .319 .369 91 1.6 .183 .263 .268 51 -0.1
Logan Porter .258 .352 .389 104 1.7 .199 .290 .297 65 -0.3
Tyler Tolbert .252 .308 .373 89 1.8 .201 .257 .289 54 -0.5
Clay Dungan .267 .342 .376 98 1.6 .214 .284 .290 60 -0.4
Nelson Velázquez .263 .328 .489 119 1.8 .209 .273 .374 75 -0.9
Angelo Castellano .268 .340 .405 105 1.4 .214 .283 .314 67 -0.3
Franmil Reyes .273 .335 .492 124 1.5 .219 .282 .383 83 -0.6
Javier Vaz .294 .365 .408 113 1.6 .236 .307 .324 76 -0.7
Adeiny Hechavarría .289 .337 .455 116 0.8 .227 .274 .349 72 -0.1
Matt Duffy .298 .357 .381 105 0.9 .234 .300 .302 69 -0.3
Nick Pratto .260 .344 .461 120 1.6 .200 .284 .346 75 -1.2
John Rave .258 .330 .390 97 1.3 .201 .272 .296 60 -0.9
Gavin Cross .246 .314 .421 101 1.2 .184 .256 .321 59 -0.9
Peyton Wilson .269 .331 .390 98 1.2 .218 .284 .307 66 -0.8
Jermaine Palacios .259 .309 .434 101 1.2 .204 .252 .322 58 -0.8
Tucker Bradley .276 .343 .413 105 0.9 .220 .286 .328 70 -0.9
Jose Briceno .258 .295 .417 93 0.5 .198 .234 .300 49 -0.4
MJ Melendez .278 .353 .524 137 1.7 .216 .295 .400 92 -1.4
Jimmy Govern .267 .316 .414 100 0.8 .207 .257 .304 54 -0.8
Matt Beaty .298 .380 .415 120 0.6 .228 .322 .315 78 -0.8
Dillan Shrum .226 .340 .391 99 0.7 .166 .283 .283 59 -1.1
Carter Jensen .246 .337 .388 101 1.3 .176 .270 .274 55 -1.6
River Town .265 .354 .392 105 0.7 .211 .297 .299 67 -1.2
Tyler Cropley .250 .327 .362 89 0.2 .180 .254 .262 45 -0.7
Jackie Bradley Jr. .227 .293 .361 79 0.6 .170 .236 .263 38 -1.0
Jorge Bonifacio .255 .325 .417 105 0.9 .195 .265 .320 64 -1.3
Jake Means .223 .303 .353 81 0.5 .163 .240 .252 39 -1.2
Parker Bates .245 .311 .339 79 0.3 .190 .250 .258 42 -1.1
CJ Alexander .252 .293 .441 98 0.6 .192 .236 .328 55 -1.5
Leonel Valera .249 .303 .387 89 0.6 .188 .245 .283 46 -1.6
Paxton Wallace .245 .311 .335 78 -0.1 .187 .246 .245 38 -0.9
Diego Hernandez .263 .307 .347 80 0.2 .208 .257 .270 48 -1.4
Omar Hernandez .262 .312 .347 81 0.4 .191 .242 .253 36 -1.7
Jack Reinheimer .247 .299 .312 71 0.1 .191 .241 .236 35 -1.3
Hunter Dozier .256 .323 .456 110 0.2 .197 .271 .341 69 -1.8
Luca Tresh .274 .329 .410 102 0.1 .204 .261 .302 59 -2.0
Greyson Jenista .223 .292 .397 85 -0.2 .165 .235 .288 45 -1.7
Hayden Dunhurst .194 .250 .311 53 -0.7 .125 .181 .196 6 -1.4
Jeison Guzmán .235 .299 .365 82 -0.4 .173 .243 .264 43 -1.7
Kale Emshoff .233 .294 .372 82 -1.2 .186 .242 .288 47 -2.8

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Bobby Witt Jr. .282 .333 .505 .271 .317 .468
Maikel Garcia .270 .333 .387 .252 .304 .340
Vinnie Pasquantino .270 .347 .466 .282 .355 .489
Devin Mann .237 .332 .395 .237 .317 .394
Dairon Blanco .264 .331 .387 .259 .320 .389
Kyle Isbel .250 .311 .370 .256 .312 .420
Samad Taylor .260 .349 .408 .246 .323 .357
Salvador Perez .260 .307 .461 .258 .296 .450
Tyler Gentry .251 .349 .396 .242 .323 .371
Nick Loftin .263 .329 .387 .257 .313 .388
Michael Massey .248 .301 .383 .257 .305 .430
Drew Waters .241 .311 .402 .248 .313 .416
Edward Olivares .277 .339 .477 .278 .329 .432
Freddy Fermin .258 .331 .419 .250 .306 .391
Cayden Wallace .243 .309 .378 .242 .293 .366
Nate Eaton .233 .300 .344 .228 .281 .344
Morgan McCullough .202 .287 .303 .214 .294 .326
Logan Porter .230 .335 .354 .221 .307 .333
Tyler Tolbert .230 .293 .342 .225 .278 .324
Clay Dungan .224 .299 .293 .251 .323 .357
Nelson Velázquez .241 .309 .428 .235 .295 .425
Angelo Castellano .243 .318 .371 .235 .305 .344
Franmil Reyes .254 .324 .443 .246 .305 .430
Javier Vaz .258 .321 .333 .268 .339 .373
Adeiny Hechavarría .255 .314 .383 .259 .300 .411
Matt Duffy .264 .337 .341 .268 .324 .348
Nick Pratto .223 .315 .414 .230 .316 .399
John Rave .218 .291 .331 .232 .305 .346
Gavin Cross .210 .279 .370 .217 .286 .373
Peyton Wilson .232 .306 .348 .248 .308 .350
Jermaine Palacios .253 .308 .390 .215 .258 .354
Tucker Bradley .239 .308 .350 .255 .325 .377
Jose Briceno .231 .275 .369 .222 .253 .333
MJ Melendez .250 .322 .449 .248 .327 .458
Jimmy Govern .236 .282 .373 .234 .283 .344
Matt Beaty .246 .348 .333 .269 .354 .379
Dillan Shrum .195 .315 .325 .198 .311 .342
Carter Jensen .203 .296 .308 .208 .305 .334
River Town .229 .322 .343 .242 .324 .340
Tyler Cropley .224 .297 .328 .209 .281 .302
Jackie Bradley Jr. .193 .256 .277 .198 .262 .313
Jorge Bonifacio .228 .305 .376 .224 .289 .360
Jake Means .200 .282 .336 .189 .261 .278
Parker Bates .207 .275 .305 .217 .276 .291
CJ Alexander .206 .252 .365 .225 .271 .394
Leonel Valera .224 .284 .345 .215 .267 .323
Paxton Wallace .207 .281 .241 .216 .274 .318
Diego Hernandez .224 .274 .288 .241 .287 .316
Omar Hernandez .230 .289 .295 .221 .273 .294
Jack Reinheimer .219 .280 .272 .212 .259 .272
Hunter Dozier .228 .313 .394 .225 .288 .389
Luca Tresh .243 .308 .375 .229 .287 .344
Greyson Jenista .188 .258 .325 .194 .264 .352
Hayden Dunhurst .167 .219 .200 .154 .212 .269
Jeison Guzmán .195 .271 .310 .206 .271 .315
Kale Emshoff .215 .288 .340 .204 .259 .327

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Cole Ragans L 26 7 7 4.04 31 19 111.3 103 50 13 44 113
Brady Singer R 27 7 9 4.47 26 25 143.0 144 71 17 44 131
Kyle Wright R 28 7 8 4.51 22 21 109.7 108 55 13 39 95
Noah Cameron L 24 6 9 4.52 22 22 97.7 100 49 13 31 84
Max Castillo R 25 5 8 4.78 26 20 116.7 124 62 16 38 81
Zack Greinke R 40 6 9 4.86 26 24 129.7 147 70 19 33 80
Kris Bubic L 26 5 7 4.78 22 19 105.3 106 56 14 45 93
Andrew Hoffmann R 24 6 8 4.80 24 23 110.7 117 59 14 46 85
Alec Marsh R 26 7 10 4.87 26 20 118.3 117 64 16 54 116
Chandler Champlain R 24 6 10 4.85 23 22 111.3 122 60 15 38 76
Mason Barnett R 23 5 8 4.86 23 23 103.7 103 56 13 47 88
Angel Zerpa L 24 4 5 4.63 24 17 81.7 85 42 10 29 60
Daniel Lynch L 27 5 7 4.78 20 20 96.0 101 51 13 36 85
Austin Cox L 27 3 4 4.73 29 15 91.3 96 48 11 38 66
Anthony Veneziano L 26 5 8 5.01 25 22 109.7 115 61 14 49 86
Jonathan Bowlan R 27 6 9 4.88 21 18 86.7 95 47 12 31 65
James McArthur R 27 3 3 4.56 34 9 71.0 70 36 9 28 66
Tyson Guerrero L 25 3 5 4.94 18 17 74.7 76 41 10 31 63
Marcelo Martinez L 27 4 6 5.05 21 15 82.0 88 46 11 33 61
Cody Poteet R 29 3 4 4.82 15 12 65.3 65 35 10 28 58
Jonathan Heasley R 27 3 6 5.05 33 18 107.0 112 60 15 42 81
William Fleming R 25 3 6 5.12 21 18 95.0 110 54 13 33 56
Taylor Hearn L 29 3 5 4.64 33 7 73.7 71 38 9 33 71
Carlos Hernández R 27 4 6 4.77 47 8 77.3 74 41 10 34 72
Luis Cessa R 32 2 4 4.61 31 5 52.7 54 27 7 19 39
Nick Anderson R 33 2 3 4.06 40 0 37.7 38 17 5 10 36
Taylor Clarke R 31 3 4 4.73 46 3 53.3 55 28 8 19 50
Emilio Marquez L 26 3 4 4.73 25 2 53.3 54 28 7 21 45
Adrian Alcantara R 24 4 7 5.38 19 14 73.7 82 44 11 32 51
Anthony Simonelli R 25 2 4 4.76 35 2 51.0 55 27 7 17 38
Brad Keller R 28 5 10 5.42 26 16 89.7 96 54 11 52 68
Joe Barlow R 28 2 3 4.70 44 1 51.7 51 27 7 21 40
Ronald Medrano R 28 1 1 5.45 10 6 33.0 37 20 5 13 21
Ryan Weiss R 27 2 4 5.30 27 6 52.7 57 31 7 24 40
Jordan Lyles R 33 6 13 5.61 26 26 144.3 162 90 26 48 104
Josh Taylor L 31 1 2 4.83 35 1 31.7 32 17 5 12 33
Josh Staumont R 30 1 2 4.82 39 1 37.3 32 20 5 22 42
Yefri Del Rosario R 24 3 5 5.12 37 3 58.0 61 33 8 29 46
John McMillon R 26 3 5 4.81 34 0 39.3 32 21 5 29 51
Dylan Coleman R 27 3 4 4.86 55 1 53.7 45 29 7 36 64
Steven Cruz R 25 1 1 5.13 45 3 52.7 50 30 7 34 54
Brooks Kriske R 30 1 3 5.08 29 0 33.7 30 19 5 19 39
Walter Pennington L 26 3 5 5.01 41 1 59.3 61 33 7 28 47
Anderson Paulino R 25 2 5 5.34 36 4 60.7 69 36 8 22 37
Will Klein R 24 2 4 5.07 42 1 60.3 57 34 7 38 62
Beck Way R 24 3 8 5.79 23 17 74.7 77 48 10 48 58
Asa Lacy L 25 2 3 5.84 14 9 37.0 34 24 5 26 36
T.J. Sikkema L 25 2 5 5.49 28 4 62.3 64 38 8 30 46
Eric Cerantola R 24 2 4 5.67 27 5 60.3 59 38 8 40 54
Rylan Kaufman L 25 2 5 6.00 18 15 66.0 70 44 9 44 53
Evan Sisk L 27 2 3 5.37 49 2 55.3 57 33 7 33 47
Dante Biasi L 26 3 5 5.66 29 6 62.0 64 39 9 44 51
Brett de Geus R 26 1 3 5.72 29 1 39.3 45 25 5 17 25
Christian Chamberlain L 24 2 3 5.51 41 1 50.7 45 31 7 40 56
Jonah Dipoto R 27 1 3 5.40 38 0 46.7 45 28 6 31 44
Noah Murdock R 25 1 3 5.86 27 5 58.3 62 38 8 39 44
Collin Snider R 28 2 4 5.63 52 1 56.0 61 35 7 31 40
Jake Brentz L 29 1 3 5.93 47 0 41.0 37 27 6 30 46
Jacob Wallace R 25 2 4 5.74 45 0 47.0 45 30 6 35 43

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Cole Ragans 111.3 9.1 3.6 1.1 9.2% 23.6% .297 107 4.01 94 1.6
Brady Singer 143.0 8.2 2.8 1.1 7.2% 21.5% .306 97 4.10 103 1.6
Kyle Wright 109.7 7.8 3.2 1.1 8.2% 20.0% .296 96 4.35 104 1.2
Noah Cameron 97.7 7.7 2.9 1.2 7.3% 19.8% .301 96 4.37 105 1.1
Max Castillo 116.7 6.2 2.9 1.2 7.5% 15.9% .293 90 4.76 111 0.9
Zack Greinke 129.7 5.6 2.3 1.3 5.9% 14.3% .300 89 4.76 112 0.9
Kris Bubic 105.3 7.9 3.8 1.2 9.8% 20.2% .300 90 4.64 111 0.9
Andrew Hoffmann 110.7 6.9 3.7 1.1 9.4% 17.3% .301 90 4.72 111 0.9
Alec Marsh 118.3 8.8 4.1 1.2 10.3% 22.1% .304 89 4.62 113 0.8
Chandler Champlain 111.3 6.1 3.1 1.2 7.7% 15.4% .301 89 4.80 112 0.8
Mason Barnett 103.7 7.6 4.1 1.1 10.2% 19.1% .295 89 4.75 113 0.8
Angel Zerpa 81.7 6.6 3.2 1.1 8.1% 16.8% .295 93 4.59 107 0.8
Daniel Lynch 96.0 8.0 3.4 1.2 8.5% 20.1% .310 90 4.49 111 0.8
Austin Cox 91.3 6.5 3.7 1.1 9.4% 16.3% .297 91 4.76 109 0.7
Anthony Veneziano 109.7 7.1 4.0 1.1 10.0% 17.5% .301 86 4.91 116 0.7
Jonathan Bowlan 86.7 6.8 3.2 1.2 8.1% 17.0% .306 89 4.73 113 0.6
James McArthur 71.0 8.4 3.5 1.1 9.0% 21.3% .300 95 4.52 106 0.6
Tyson Guerrero 74.7 7.6 3.7 1.2 9.4% 19.1% .297 87 4.80 114 0.5
Marcelo Martinez 82.0 6.7 3.6 1.2 9.1% 16.8% .301 86 4.83 117 0.5
Cody Poteet 65.3 8.0 3.9 1.4 9.8% 20.2% .293 90 4.89 112 0.5
Jonathan Heasley 107.0 6.8 3.5 1.3 8.9% 17.1% .295 86 4.91 117 0.5
William Fleming 95.0 5.3 3.1 1.2 7.7% 13.1% .305 84 5.06 118 0.4
Taylor Hearn 73.7 8.7 4.0 1.1 10.2% 22.0% .300 93 4.38 107 0.4
Carlos Hernández 77.3 8.4 4.0 1.2 10.0% 21.2% .292 91 4.51 110 0.4
Luis Cessa 52.7 6.7 3.2 1.2 8.3% 17.1% .290 94 4.64 107 0.3
Nick Anderson 37.7 8.6 2.4 1.2 6.3% 22.5% .308 106 3.95 94 0.3
Taylor Clarke 53.3 8.4 3.2 1.4 8.2% 21.5% .307 91 4.51 109 0.2
Emilio Marquez 53.3 7.6 3.5 1.2 9.0% 19.3% .297 91 4.57 109 0.1
Adrian Alcantara 73.7 6.2 3.9 1.3 9.6% 15.2% .302 80 5.36 124 0.1
Anthony Simonelli 51.0 6.7 3.0 1.2 7.6% 17.0% .302 91 4.73 110 0.1
Brad Keller 89.7 6.8 5.2 1.1 12.5% 16.3% .305 80 5.21 125 0.1
Joe Barlow 51.7 7.0 3.7 1.2 9.3% 17.8% .284 92 4.75 109 0.1
Ronald Medrano 33.0 5.7 3.5 1.4 8.8% 14.2% .299 79 5.59 126 0.0
Ryan Weiss 52.7 6.8 4.1 1.2 10.0% 16.7% .305 82 5.00 123 0.0
Jordan Lyles 144.3 6.5 3.0 1.6 7.5% 16.3% .300 77 5.26 130 0.0
Josh Taylor 31.7 9.4 3.4 1.4 8.6% 23.7% .310 89 4.46 112 0.0
Josh Staumont 37.3 10.1 5.3 1.2 13.2% 25.1% .284 90 4.67 112 -0.1
Yefri Del Rosario 58.0 7.1 4.5 1.2 10.9% 17.2% .299 84 5.17 119 -0.1
John McMillon 39.3 11.7 6.6 1.1 15.8% 27.7% .293 90 4.68 111 -0.1
Dylan Coleman 53.7 10.7 6.0 1.2 14.6% 26.0% .288 89 4.91 113 -0.1
Steven Cruz 52.7 9.2 5.8 1.2 13.9% 22.0% .301 84 5.10 119 -0.1
Brooks Kriske 33.7 10.4 5.1 1.3 12.3% 25.3% .294 85 4.74 118 -0.1
Walter Pennington 59.3 7.1 4.2 1.1 10.5% 17.6% .298 86 4.77 116 -0.1
Anderson Paulino 60.7 5.5 3.3 1.2 8.0% 13.5% .303 81 5.08 124 -0.2
Will Klein 60.3 9.2 5.7 1.0 13.8% 22.5% .303 85 4.75 117 -0.2
Beck Way 74.7 7.0 5.8 1.2 13.8% 16.6% .295 75 5.81 134 -0.2
Asa Lacy 37.0 8.8 6.3 1.2 14.7% 20.3% .287 74 5.90 135 -0.2
T.J. Sikkema 62.3 6.6 4.3 1.2 10.8% 16.6% .292 79 5.32 127 -0.2
Eric Cerantola 60.3 8.1 6.0 1.2 13.9% 18.8% .293 76 5.53 131 -0.3
Rylan Kaufman 66.0 7.2 6.0 1.2 14.1% 16.9% .303 72 5.79 139 -0.3
Evan Sisk 55.3 7.6 5.4 1.1 12.8% 18.3% .303 80 5.26 124 -0.3
Dante Biasi 62.0 7.4 6.4 1.3 15.1% 17.5% .297 76 5.82 131 -0.3
Brett de Geus 39.3 5.7 3.9 1.1 9.4% 13.9% .308 76 5.31 132 -0.4
Christian Chamberlain 50.7 9.9 7.1 1.2 16.6% 23.2% .290 78 5.51 127 -0.4
Jonah Dipoto 46.7 8.5 6.0 1.2 14.2% 20.2% .295 80 5.36 125 -0.4
Noah Murdock 58.3 6.8 6.0 1.2 14.1% 15.9% .298 74 5.90 136 -0.4
Collin Snider 56.0 6.4 5.0 1.1 12.0% 15.5% .303 77 5.33 130 -0.5
Jake Brentz 41.0 10.1 6.6 1.3 15.6% 24.0% .295 73 5.40 137 -0.6
Jacob Wallace 47.0 8.2 6.7 1.1 15.6% 19.2% .291 75 5.70 133 -0.6

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps

<tr

Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Cole Ragans Sterling Hitchcock Lou Brissie Earl Whitehill
Brady Singer Jason Hammel John Burkett Anthony DeSclafani
Kyle Wright Jason Hammel Jeremy Guthrie Sonny Gray
Noah Cameron Kellen Raab Eddie Guardado Mitch Horacek
Max Castillo Jason Davis Nick Martinez Adam Plutko 플럿코
Zack Greinke Ken Forsch Greg Maddux Paul Byrd
Kris Bubic Justin Hampson Jalen Beeks Bruce Zimmermann
Andrew Hoffmann Gaby Hernandez Jeremy Powell Tim Wakefield
Alec Marsh James Baldwin Jason Johnson Dick Welteroth
Chandler Champlain Shaun Anderson 앤더슨 Jose Urena Erasmo Ramirez
Mason Barnett Larry Gowell Chance Adams Ron Tompkins
Angel Zerpa Gary Dotter Bob O’Brien Billy Joe Davidson
Daniel Lynch Greg Harris Charlie Alsop Ron Mrozinski
Austin Cox Matt Ruebel Matt Blank Travis Baptist
Anthony Veneziano Bruce Zimmermann Horacio Estrada 에스트라다 Danny Christensen
Jonathan Bowlan Matt Klinker Kendall Graveman Richard Fleshman
James McArthur Gene Nelson Jason Bell Matt Roney
Tyson Guerrero Jerry Bostic Anthony Ward Arthur Hirst
Marcelo Martinez Pete Kendrick Ryan Carpenter 카펜터 Matt Blank
Cody Poteet Dera Clark Matt Sergey George Throop
Jonathan Heasley Taylor Clarke Parker Bridwell Eddie Butler 버틀러
William Fleming Sean O’Sullivan 오설리반 Scott Hodsdon Steve Sparks
Taylor Hearn Ross Powell Mike Mimbs Rich Sauveur
Carlos Hernández Drew VerHagen Michael Lorenzen Frank Wills
Luis Cessa Alex Wilson Juan Acevedo Russ Christopher
Nick Anderson Blas Minor Rod Beck Claude Raymond
Taylor Clarke Josh Lueke Doug Bird Preston Guilmet
Emilio Marquez Dustin Seale Brendan Lafferty Tito Stewart
Adrian Alcantara Phil Regan Ivan Pineyro Ronald Woods
Anthony Simonelli Nick Kennedy Chris Cochrane Blake Hendley
Brad Keller Jason Beverlin Thomas Arruda Ryan Tatusko 타투스코
Joe Barlow Logan Ondrusek Randall Delgado Pete Mikkelsen
Ronald Medrano Euel Moore Dave Baldwin William Wolfe
Ryan Weiss Andy Kimball Ryan Kelly Tad Powers
Jordan Lyles Bob Snyder Ramon Ortiz Bobby Jones
Josh Taylor Roger Samuels Jason Brosnan Mike Myers
Josh Staumont Mark Littell Jack Meyer Jim Duffalo
Yefri Del Rosario Austin Chambliss Orlando Lind Vladimir Perez
John McMillon Billy Sylvester AJ Ramos Jim Sak
Dylan Coleman Tommy Kahnle Charlie Hough Anthony Varvaro
Steven Cruz Zach Jackson Billy Sadler Matt Herges
Brooks Kriske Brad Boxberger Bryan Stephens Craig Dingman
Walter Pennington Eric Stout Rob Kaminsky Todd Belitz
Anderson Paulino Steve Gagliano Steve Maye Steve Duda
Will Klein Pete Cimino Jay Ritchie Lloyd Allen
Beck Way Jim Olson John Glass Rick Hansen
Asa Lacy Ron Leach Ron Crook Don Rowe
T.J. Sikkema Rob Kaminsky Lefty Hoerst Mark Miggins
Eric Cerantola Mitch Brown Carlos Thomas Robert Bishop
Rylan Kaufman Chuck Lofgren Chuck Tomaselli John Boyle
Evan Sisk Phil Nastu John Kilner Chad Brown
Dante Biasi Phil Nastu John Kilner Joel McKeon
Brett de Geus Mayckol Guaipe Matt Stites Chad Smith
Christian Chamberlain Frankie Griffin Wesley Wright Jose Alvarado
Jonah Dipoto Carlos Ramirez Brandon Cunniff Zach Simons
Noah Murdock Rafael Dolis Ryan Tucker Chris Bassitt
Collin Snider Victor Alcantara Clint Everts Ryan Perry
Jake Brentz Drew Hall Bill Laxton Brad Pennington
Jacob Wallace Byron Wilkerson Jhondaniel Medina Jack Savage

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Cole Ragans .256 .324 .392 .234 .309 .388 2.3 0.8 3.57 4.69
Brady Singer .249 .328 .431 .262 .309 .387 2.5 0.6 3.93 5.08
Kyle Wright .268 .345 .464 .236 .303 .345 1.8 0.4 4.03 5.24
Noah Cameron .231 .302 .356 .270 .327 .447 1.6 0.3 3.98 5.26
Max Castillo .257 .321 .437 .276 .331 .440 1.6 0.3 4.26 5.31
Zack Greinke .286 .333 .467 .274 .315 .448 1.5 0.2 4.41 5.51
Kris Bubic .280 .364 .484 .249 .325 .402 1.5 0.0 4.22 5.58
Andrew Hoffmann .282 .364 .456 .251 .313 .396 1.4 0.1 4.38 5.40
Alec Marsh .283 .366 .456 .223 .313 .378 1.7 -0.1 4.30 5.57
Chandler Champlain .264 .332 .426 .280 .336 .456 1.5 0.2 4.34 5.33
Mason Barnett .250 .335 .401 .257 .343 .421 1.4 0.1 4.41 5.43
Angel Zerpa .267 .330 .426 .260 .327 .417 1.2 0.2 4.16 5.22
Daniel Lynch .265 .333 .410 .264 .331 .438 1.4 0.0 4.20 5.55
Austin Cox .250 .328 .380 .271 .343 .439 1.2 0.0 4.27 5.43
Anthony Veneziano .258 .342 .406 .266 .349 .432 1.3 -0.2 4.48 5.81
Jonathan Bowlan .276 .347 .453 .270 .323 .438 1.2 0.0 4.25 5.53
James McArthur .250 .340 .406 .253 .327 .407 1.1 0.0 3.98 5.34
Tyson Guerrero .244 .313 .372 .263 .349 .450 1.0 -0.1 4.41 5.66
Marcelo Martinez .288 .348 .519 .259 .333 .397 1.0 -0.2 4.52 5.82
Cody Poteet .254 .331 .444 .254 .333 .415 0.9 0.0 4.24 5.51
Jonathan Heasley .263 .341 .449 .264 .332 .419 1.1 -0.2 4.53 5.60
William Fleming .314 .380 .483 .260 .318 .433 1.0 0.0 4.62 5.56
Taylor Hearn .229 .316 .325 .255 .335 .431 1.0 -0.2 3.94 5.41
Carlos Hernández .220 .311 .383 .269 .341 .431 0.9 -0.3 4.17 5.52
Luis Cessa .253 .314 .421 .265 .328 .425 0.7 -0.1 4.03 5.40
Nick Anderson .275 .333 .435 .241 .282 .418 0.7 -0.2 3.19 5.16
Taylor Clarke .260 .339 .438 .261 .312 .435 0.7 -0.4 3.84 5.68
Emilio Marquez .234 .296 .406 .267 .341 .425 0.5 -0.3 4.11 5.45
Adrian Alcantara .272 .355 .456 .280 .357 .460 0.5 -0.4 4.89 6.01
Anthony Simonelli .270 .340 .416 .270 .325 .452 0.5 -0.3 4.11 5.38
Brad Keller .267 .378 .432 .269 .351 .423 0.6 -0.6 4.86 6.21
Joe Barlow .261 .337 .435 .245 .311 .400 0.4 -0.4 4.07 5.52
Ronald Medrano .277 .365 .462 .279 .359 .471 0.2 -0.2 5.04 6.05
Ryan Weiss .281 .369 .490 .261 .333 .391 0.3 -0.3 4.75 5.96
Jordan Lyles .279 .355 .494 .276 .318 .467 0.9 -1.0 5.04 6.31
Josh Taylor .233 .298 .349 .268 .337 .500 0.3 -0.4 3.80 6.23
Josh Staumont .231 .359 .415 .221 .315 .377 0.4 -0.5 3.83 6.02
Yefri Del Rosario .288 .385 .481 .244 .326 .394 0.3 -0.5 4.60 5.70
John McMillon .236 .389 .403 .197 .311 .355 0.3 -0.6 4.00 5.90
Dylan Coleman .250 .389 .413 .198 .323 .351 0.5 -0.8 4.04 5.95
Steven Cruz .231 .358 .385 .257 .366 .425 0.3 -0.6 4.44 5.96
Brooks Kriske .246 .361 .426 .221 .316 .397 0.2 -0.5 4.19 6.27
Walter Pennington .234 .318 .351 .272 .356 .443 0.4 -0.5 4.32 5.70
Anderson Paulino .289 .359 .482 .273 .340 .424 0.2 -0.5 4.74 5.83
Will Klein .262 .389 .411 .228 .322 .378 0.4 -0.8 4.33 6.06
Beck Way .291 .418 .463 .236 .351 .404 0.3 -0.8 5.27 6.49
Asa Lacy .255 .386 .426 .232 .388 .400 0.2 -0.6 5.15 6.79
T.J. Sikkema .227 .344 .373 .275 .365 .439 0.1 -0.7 4.90 6.24
Eric Cerantola .227 .358 .345 .270 .384 .468 0.1 -0.9 5.08 6.57
Rylan Kaufman .273 .387 .442 .263 .384 .441 0.1 -0.8 5.48 6.83
Evan Sisk .229 .330 .337 .279 .389 .471 0.2 -0.7 4.65 6.04
Dante Biasi .253 .375 .380 .265 .382 .458 0.2 -0.9 5.00 6.58
Brett de Geus .274 .354 .493 .287 .376 .414 -0.1 -0.6 5.11 6.27
Christian Chamberlain .231 .375 .354 .233 .375 .419 0.1 -1.0 4.68 6.58
Jonah Dipoto .265 .396 .494 .232 .347 .333 0.0 -0.9 4.73 6.34
Noah Murdock .288 .416 .468 .246 .354 .402 -0.1 -0.9 5.33 6.58
Collin Snider .280 .398 .462 .265 .342 .409 -0.1 -1.0 5.01 6.54
Jake Brentz .188 .328 .271 .257 .388 .477 -0.1 -1.2 4.86 7.46
Jacob Wallace .262 .404 .476 .232 .364 .343 -0.3 -1.1 5.14 6.68

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

52 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
mariodegenzgz
2 months ago

I’ll take the over on Ragans. He has ace stuff, the likes of which few lefty starters in the world have access to.

I also don’t understand why the Royals have given up on Meléndez as a catcher. Sure he’s not good now, but neither is Salvy and he caught like 800 innings last year. And he’s, you know, about to be 34 and firmly in his decline phase. This is like the Rockies keeping Charlie Blackmon in the leadoff spot until he’s walking with a cane, only even worse because Salvy is playing a high value position.

sadtrombonemember
2 months ago
Reply to  mariodegenzgz

I totally understand why the projection on Ragans is that low. He was unbelievable for the Royals but it is only 72 innings, and the 64 innings before that he was bad. His performance after the trade was out of whack with his entire minor league career too, with the exception of when he was a 24 year old in AA.

That said, he was pitching at roughly a 5-win pace last year after the trade. He made such a huge leap. What I would be worried about with him isn’t him regressing to his previous performance, it’s that this sort of jump in ability and stuff often precedes blowing out one’s arm.

TwinPeaks
2 months ago
Reply to  mariodegenzgz

Yeah, well OF certainly isn’t working out – you don’t see a “-15” fielding number too often. He may be below average at catcher, but he’s a good hitter, and I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t be a -15 behind the plate.

Shirtless George Brett
2 months ago
Reply to  TwinPeaks

He was -18 behind the plate in 2022 and he only played 78 games.

TwinPeaks
2 months ago

I meant, you don’t see a -15 often in ZIPS projections. Baseball Savant showed that he was awful at blocking and framing in 2022 but average at framing in 2023. (Blocking does not show due to too few attempts.) His arm is good so he should be averagish at catching basestealers.

Shirtless George Brett
2 months ago
Reply to  TwinPeaks

I meant, you don’t see a -15 often in ZIPS projections.

ok?

The point is still the same. He is a terrible defensive catcher which is why they moved him to the OF. He absolutely would be worse behind the plate than in RF.

tootblan
2 months ago
Reply to  mariodegenzgz

It’s not like the Royals are contenders, what do they have to lose throwing Melendez at catcher and seeing if he sticks?

Shirtless George Brett
2 months ago
Reply to  tootblan

You are talking like he didnt play several hundred/thousands of innings at catcher in the minors. They aren’t just moving him on a whim, they already know full well that he is not a good enough catcher.

Last edited 2 months ago by Shirtless George Brett
cregwalkermember
2 months ago

The way they’ve handled Melendez defensively has been baffling. He caught over 2000 innings in the minors from 2017-2021. He started 2022 as a catcher and made his MLB debut because Salvy got hurt and they needed a catcher. Then suddenly, in 2023, they decided he’s actually a fulltime outfielder. They had five years to evaluate him as a catcher before he ever sniffed the majors, was that not enough to demonstrate that he couldn’t stick behind the plate?
They punted on him as a catcher so that he could play a position that he logged a total of 19 innings in the minors at, while simultaneously expecting him to figure out how to hit major league pitching. I won’t act like I’m a player development expert but that seems like piss poor handling of a once-promising prospect.

Shirtless George Brett
2 months ago
Reply to  cregwalker

Yeah, not really. The plan was always to try him at other positions because A) his defense was always suspect and B) They already had Sal Perez blocking him.

The Royals had him playing a few games at 3B in 2021 at AAA in anticipation of him moving out from behind the plate. 2022 he was supposed to play more 3B and in the OF at Omaha but, as you said, Salvy got hurt early on and they needed a catcher. Melendez filled in and was absolutely awful defensively (-18 DRS in 78 games). When Perez came back MJ moved to the OF/DH and filled in when Perez needed a day off. In May 2023 when they called up a back up catcher (Fermin) Melendez was “officially” moved to the OF full time but in reality he already had been in the second half of 2022.

Your characterization that the Royals just woke up one day and decided Melendez was an OF is not even close to true. It was something in the works for 2+ years.

Last edited 2 months ago by Shirtless George Brett
tootblan
2 months ago

that’s fair, I don’t expect him to be Johnny Bench back there but it seems like at this point his most likely path to being a valuable major leaguer is if he can be at least playable behind the plate. If the Royals were contenders I would totally understand moving him, but they’re not, so why not give him a run back there and see how he handles it? IIRC as a prospect he was expected to be at least decent at catcher.

dl80
2 months ago
Reply to  tootblan

Also, framing will likely be irrelevant within 1-3 years with a challenge system in 2025 and (hopefully) a fully automated system shortly thereafter.

Dmjn53
2 months ago
Reply to  mariodegenzgz

I’m with you here. It looks like Melendez’s only path to being a major leaguer is behind the plate, and it’s not like they have anything to lose by him costing them a few extra runs

TwinPeaks
2 months ago
Reply to  Dmjn53

He definitely seems to have the range you’d expect to see when you put a catcher in the outfield.