2024 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Guardians

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cleveland Guardians.

Batters

Going through the Guardians’ projections this winter reminds me quite a bit of going through the Diamondbacks’ projections last year, when I wrote:

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: ZiPS really, really likes the Diamondbacks. As I mentioned in the early standings run I did a few weeks ago, I actually went back and re-checked everything that was Arizona-specific to make sure that the optimism was correct, and while I can’t say for sure that the computer’s love for this roster is warranted, I can at least say that it was properly generated!

Obviously, Cleveland and Arizona aren’t in identical situations — the Guardians don’t have a Corbin Carroll equivalent about to hit the majors — but there’s a surprising lot to like about this team if you’re a believer in the ZiPS projections.

I guess we can start with the weakest part of the offense: the outfield. While center and right field project as extremely ordinary, ZiPS has a long history of cordially disliking Cleveland’s outfield, and this is far from some of the trash fires we’ve seen in past projections. Bottom line, these are the Guardians’ best outfield ZiPS projections since 2015, back in Michael Brantley’s prime. Last year, Steven Kwan projecting for a 103 OPS+ caused a good bit of consternation, but he finished 2023 at 100, serving as a reminder that BABIP Regression is second only to the eternal meat grinder known as time in its deadliness. The scouts, however, may have defeated ZiPS in terms of George Valera, and after a .211/.343/.375 line, the computer has jumped off the bandwagon (even accounting for the fact that at least some of that was probably due to nagging hamstring and wrist injuries).

ZiPS remains a big fan of Andrés Giménez, and based on his peripherals, sees his 2022 as being a lot closer to who he is than his weaker 2023 season. Also helping his projection is the fact that he’s still young enough to have some unknown upside remaining.

Cleveland doesn’t project as having serious holes anywhere else in the lineup, either. ZiPS isn’t quite as interested in Kyle Manzardo as it was a year ago, but he still projects as a league-average first baseman, and Josh Naylor still projects as a solid player even if 2023 may have been a career year. José Ramírez remains José Ramírez, and Austin Hedges‘ projection isn’t bad enough to counteract all the good in Bo Naylor’s forecast.

Pitchers

Teams don’t typically give me their projections, but I’d be especially interested in how ZiPS compares to the Guardians’ internal projections here — I wonder how much those numbers are what made them comfortable with trading Aaron Civale while still technically in a playoff race and at least listening to offers for Shane Bieber. The Guardians have some really solid defensive players, which is reflected in their pitching projections; from the ERA-FIP differences, ZiPS thinks Cleveland will be a +25 run defensive team in 2024. Even ignoring Daniel Espino’s projection given the nature of his shoulder injury and assuming a Bieber trade (which very well might not happen), Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams project as a solid rotation by themselves. Williams is the big name, but ZiPS likes Cleveland’s second-tier pitching prospects to be able to get some innings in and avoid train-wreck status.

Running down the top nine names on our depth charts for Cleveland’s ‘pen, the worst projected ERA of the bunch is Cody Morris‘ at 4.19 and even that’s misleading, as it still includes some starts that project for a higher ERA. The Guardians are the 16th team to receive a ZiPS projection this offseason; of those 16, they have the third-best projected bullpen, behind the Braves and Rays.

All in all, ZiPS projects a very strong bounce back from the team’s 76 wins in 2023, and unless the computer’s missing on its sleeper pick this year, the Twins shouldn’t rest too easy on their nine-game lead. Some people might have the Royals as a sleeper pick given their activity in free agency, but I think Cleveland’s got a case for being built significantly better from tip to tail.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
José Ramírez B 31 3B 649 571 90 158 38 4 26 95 68 76 22 5
Andrés Giménez L 25 2B 585 523 71 142 27 4 15 71 33 109 25 5
Steven Kwan L 26 LF 677 602 87 165 29 7 5 60 64 67 18 4
Bo Naylor L 24 C 488 425 62 96 21 3 16 61 57 125 7 2
Brayan Rocchio B 23 SS 602 546 77 136 30 4 9 65 44 110 14 6
Josh Naylor L 27 1B 518 470 54 129 30 0 20 79 39 73 7 2
Ramón Laureano R 29 RF 414 368 52 85 20 2 13 48 33 112 11 3
Myles Straw R 29 CF 533 478 63 119 21 2 2 36 46 92 21 5
Jean Segura R 34 3B 400 366 41 95 13 2 6 35 27 61 7 3
Kyle Manzardo L 23 1B 386 333 53 83 21 1 13 50 42 78 0 1
Tyler Freeman R 25 2B 346 309 45 79 14 1 4 41 21 48 9 1
Juan Brito B 22 2B 562 493 66 116 28 2 9 57 56 108 5 6
Will Brennan L 26 RF 497 459 52 123 26 2 7 54 28 68 12 4
Angel Martinez B 22 2B 575 518 58 119 23 4 10 62 38 131 7 3
Mike Zunino R 33 C 244 219 28 43 10 1 12 31 20 94 0 1
Gabriel Arias R 24 SS 418 383 47 88 17 1 12 46 29 114 4 3
David Fry R 28 3B 372 336 41 80 20 2 10 45 26 90 2 1
Daniel Schneemann L 27 3B 438 394 47 90 18 1 7 41 37 109 10 2
Austin Hedges R 31 C 271 239 22 47 6 0 5 21 17 68 1 1
George Valera L 23 CF 435 379 50 87 14 2 12 49 49 129 2 2
Alfonso Rivas L 27 1B 391 341 40 81 18 2 6 40 42 102 5 0
Kole Calhoun L 36 RF 376 338 41 74 16 2 10 40 30 94 1 1
José Tena L 23 SS 511 471 54 107 23 3 8 53 30 154 8 5
Johnathan Rodriguez R 24 RF 514 473 50 109 21 3 16 68 34 166 2 1
Nate Furman L 22 2B 463 399 63 96 11 2 0 36 45 72 17 3
Chase DeLauter L 22 CF 254 234 26 61 18 0 3 28 16 40 3 2
Micah Pries L 26 1B 451 408 49 93 21 4 10 55 31 119 5 3
Milan Tolentino L 22 SS 465 419 48 86 21 1 3 38 40 151 10 1
Micael Ramirez R 25 C 262 238 26 53 10 0 1 18 21 47 1 1
Deyvison De Los Santos R 21 3B 526 499 54 115 18 1 16 59 21 164 2 1
Joe Lampe L 23 CF 476 428 36 93 17 3 3 37 38 115 12 1
Jake Fox L 21 CF 478 432 54 94 22 4 5 43 39 126 6 3
Bryan Lavastida R 25 C 420 374 48 87 17 2 7 44 34 94 8 3
Sandy León B 35 C 159 140 11 27 5 0 2 11 15 45 0 1
Dayan Frias B 22 3B 460 413 41 89 17 2 6 41 40 126 4 3
Cam Gallagher R 31 C 152 140 11 28 8 0 1 10 9 40 0 1
Kahlil Watson L 21 SS 371 334 42 69 15 2 10 45 28 134 12 2
Raynel Delgado L 24 2B 424 383 40 83 14 2 5 37 33 110 9 6
Aaron Bracho L 23 2B 398 360 34 73 14 1 10 41 31 120 1 1
Michael Berglund L 26 C 214 187 18 32 6 0 3 18 21 85 1 1
Marcos Gonzalez R 24 2B 158 144 16 31 7 0 3 17 9 49 0 1
Jhonkensy Noel R 22 LF 587 534 69 116 26 1 20 77 39 169 1 2
Gabriel Rodriguez R 22 3B 332 296 34 60 10 2 4 29 27 103 1 1
Connor Kokx R 24 LF 377 331 45 69 14 1 3 35 32 99 14 4
Zack Collins L 29 DH 421 366 41 73 20 1 9 40 50 148 2 1
Cesar Idrogo B 23 RF 160 148 16 33 6 0 1 13 10 40 2 1
Michael Amditis R 26 C 141 126 12 22 5 0 2 9 13 52 0 1
Julian Escobedo L 26 CF 305 276 34 56 13 1 4 29 20 88 7 3
Eric Rodriguez R 25 C 121 112 7 21 4 0 1 9 6 36 0 1
Jose Acosta B 24 2B 253 230 28 46 10 2 4 25 12 87 5 5
Petey Halpin L 22 CF 514 471 53 101 20 3 6 47 35 145 8 3
Joe Naranjo L 23 1B 427 379 37 78 14 1 5 39 41 129 1 1
Joe Donovan R 25 C 219 201 21 38 9 1 3 22 11 78 1 1
Alexfri Planez R 22 LF 331 314 33 66 15 0 8 40 11 93 3 1
Korey Holland R 24 LF 316 290 29 56 11 3 5 30 21 130 6 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
José Ramírez 649 .277 .354 .494 136 .217 .281 4 5.0 .354 106
Andrés Giménez 585 .272 .339 .424 114 .153 .318 14 4.6 .331 82
Steven Kwan 677 .274 .346 .370 103 .096 .302 11 2.7 .317 82
Bo Naylor 488 .226 .322 .402 103 .176 .282 1 2.4 .316 57
Brayan Rocchio 602 .249 .313 .368 91 .119 .297 1 1.9 .300 68
Josh Naylor 518 .274 .332 .466 122 .191 .289 1 1.9 .338 75
Ramón Laureano 414 .231 .314 .402 100 .171 .296 6 1.4 .314 50
Myles Straw 533 .249 .315 .314 79 .065 .305 8 1.4 .283 54
Jean Segura 400 .260 .318 .355 90 .096 .298 5 1.3 .297 44
Kyle Manzardo 386 .249 .334 .435 115 .186 .289 2 1.2 .331 49
Tyler Freeman 346 .256 .328 .346 91 .091 .292 1 1.1 .302 37
Juan Brito 562 .235 .318 .355 90 .120 .285 0 1.0 .298 59
Will Brennan 497 .268 .316 .379 95 .111 .302 4 1.0 .303 59
Angel Martinez 575 .230 .290 .347 79 .118 .289 6 0.9 .280 55
Mike Zunino 244 .196 .275 .416 91 .219 .274 2 0.9 .297 25
Gabriel Arias 418 .230 .289 .373 85 .144 .296 1 0.9 .290 43
David Fry 372 .238 .305 .399 96 .161 .297 -1 0.9 .306 42
Daniel Schneemann 438 .228 .296 .332 77 .104 .299 5 0.8 .279 42
Austin Hedges 271 .197 .256 .285 52 .088 .253 10 0.5 .242 18
George Valera 435 .230 .322 .372 95 .142 .315 -8 0.4 .306 47
Alfonso Rivas 391 .238 .328 .355 93 .117 .322 -1 0.2 .304 41
Kole Calhoun 376 .219 .290 .367 84 .148 .274 3 0.2 .288 37
José Tena 511 .227 .279 .340 73 .113 .320 -1 0.1 .272 48
Johnathan Rodriguez 514 .230 .288 .389 89 .159 .320 1 0.1 .293 54
Nate Furman 463 .241 .336 .278 77 .038 .294 -7 0.0 .285 42
Chase DeLauter 254 .261 .311 .376 93 .115 .304 -5 0.0 .299 29
Micah Pries 451 .228 .297 .373 87 .145 .297 2 0.0 .293 47
Milan Tolentino 465 .205 .277 .282 59 .076 .313 3 0.0 .252 35
Micael Ramirez 262 .223 .290 .277 62 .055 .274 0 0.0 .258 20
Deyvison De Los Santos 526 .230 .264 .367 75 .136 .310 0 0.0 .273 49
Joe Lampe 476 .217 .290 .292 65 .075 .290 2 -0.1 .263 39
Jake Fox 478 .218 .287 .322 71 .104 .296 0 -0.1 .271 42
Bryan Lavastida 420 .233 .304 .345 83 .112 .293 -11 -0.1 .287 42
Sandy León 159 .193 .278 .271 56 .079 .269 0 -0.1 .252 11
Dayan Frias 460 .215 .288 .310 69 .094 .295 2 -0.1 .267 39
Cam Gallagher 152 .200 .252 .279 50 .079 .273 2 -0.2 .237 10
Kahlil Watson 371 .207 .278 .353 76 .147 .311 -7 -0.2 .277 36
Raynel Delgado 424 .217 .284 .303 66 .086 .291 2 -0.2 .263 37
Aaron Bracho 398 .203 .271 .331 69 .128 .274 0 -0.3 .266 33
Michael Berglund 214 .171 .271 .251 49 .080 .293 0 -0.3 .243 13
Marcos Gonzalez 158 .215 .274 .326 69 .111 .304 -3 -0.4 .266 13
Jhonkensy Noel 587 .217 .283 .382 85 .165 .278 -2 -0.5 .289 59
Gabriel Rodriguez 332 .203 .279 .291 61 .088 .296 1 -0.5 .256 25
Connor Kokx 377 .208 .301 .284 67 .076 .288 1 -0.5 .269 33
Zack Collins 421 .199 .297 .333 78 .134 .306 0 -0.6 .281 37
Cesar Idrogo 160 .223 .275 .284 58 .061 .299 0 -0.6 .251 12
Michael Amditis 141 .175 .255 .262 47 .087 .278 -3 -0.7 .236 9
Julian Escobedo 305 .203 .271 .301 61 .098 .283 -2 -0.7 .256 25
Eric Rodriguez 121 .188 .233 .250 37 .063 .267 -3 -0.8 .217 7
Jose Acosta 253 .200 .251 .313 58 .113 .302 -2 -0.8 .248 21
Petey Halpin 514 .214 .271 .308 63 .093 .297 -2 -0.9 .257 42
Joe Naranjo 427 .206 .290 .288 64 .082 .298 2 -1.1 .262 32
Joe Donovan 219 .189 .251 .289 52 .100 .292 -7 -1.1 .241 15
Alexfri Planez 331 .210 .245 .334 61 .124 .272 0 -1.2 .250 27
Korey Holland 316 .193 .251 .303 55 .110 .329 -1 -1.4 .245 25

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
José Ramírez Arky Vaughan Charlie Gehringer Marcus Semien
Andrés Giménez Paul Molitor Nellie Fox Hanley Ramirez
Steven Kwan Tony Kemp Albie Pearson Michael Brantley
Bo Naylor Darrell Porter Ed Kirkpatrick Carlos Santana
Brayan Rocchio Jorge Polanco Rocky Bridges Ozzie Smith
Josh Naylor Mike Sweeney Wilmer Flores Ted Kluszewski
Ramón Laureano Jerry Martin Bill Barrett Dwayne Hosey
Myles Straw Jerry Owens Tony Gwynn Jr. John Moses
Jean Segura Hector Rodriguez Matt Howard Nate Samson
Kyle Manzardo John Olerud Elbie Fletcher Todd Helton
Tyler Freeman Joey Cora Bob Schroder Price Kendall
Juan Brito Ralph Milliard Eric Sogard Jurickson Profar
Will Brennan Ted Uhlaender Ender Inciarte Jon Jay
Angel Martinez William Suero Jack Heidemann Aarom Baldiris 발디리스
Mike Zunino David Ross Sal Fasano Todd Hundley
Gabriel Arias Dilson Herrera Tom Brookens Sheldon Neuse
David Fry Kevin Young Jose Castro Clay Bellinger
Daniel Schneemann Steve Lyons Neb Brown Steven Green
Austin Hedges Pedro Grifol A.J. Hinch Javier Cardona
George Valera Vernon Ramie Ken Henderson Randy Washington
Alfonso Rivas Mike Page Brent Brede Chris Snelling
Kole Calhoun Gene Moore Joe Frazier Casey Parsons
José Tena Zach Walters Willi Castro Max Alvis
Johnathan Rodriguez Mark Brouhard Steve Whitaker John Balaz
Nate Furman Lamarr Rogers Tucupita Marcano Wayne Meadows
Chase DeLauter Jay Payton Mitch Longo Harvey Kuenn
Micah Pries Brant Brown Val Majewski David Dellucci
Milan Tolentino Roy McMillan Michael Mathiesen Mike Neal
Micael Ramirez Joe Goodwin Rafael Neda Brad King
Deyvison De Los Santos Juan Delgado Nolan Gorman Steve Proscia
Joe Lampe Ransel Melgarejo Auston Bousfield Brent Brede
Jake Fox Eddie Williams 윌리엄스 Roger Bernadina 버나디나 Jason Robertson
Bryan Lavastida Bruce Kimm Brad Ausmus Steven Sogge
Sandy León John Baker Roy Partee Joe Pignatano
Dayan Frias Greg Norton Mike Price Scott McClain
Cam Gallagher Jesus Flores Eric Brooks Fausto Tejero
Kahlil Watson Jhonny Perez U L Washington Dylan Johnston
Raynel Delgado Mike McCoy Micah Furtado Ramon Soler
Aaron Bracho Brooks Marlow Jose Diaz Rod Beckman
Michael Berglund Sean Gousha Robert Palmer Dan Plante
Marcos Gonzalez Yoel Romero Jimmy Yawn Fernando De Los Santos
Jhonkensy Noel Brian R. Hunter Archie Amerson Dylan Davis
Gabriel Rodriguez Joseph Catanzaro Eudaldo Oliveros Chris Saunders
Connor Kokx Drew Maggi Shawn Payne Craig Griffey
Zack Collins Danny Hayes Ronnie Matney Mike Wishnevski
Cesar Idrogo Matt Fiedler Ismael Salgado Larry Jackson
Michael Amditis Nick Derba Drew Larned Eric Brooks
Julian Escobedo Mike Epping Willie Wilder Travis Becktel
Eric Rodriguez Graig Merritt Travis Chapman Kyle Pollock
Jose Acosta Brandon Johnson Jonathan Piron David Housel
Petey Halpin Darren Burton Vince Blue Nathan Panther
Joe Naranjo Derek Baker Reed Eastley Daniel LaNoue
Joe Donovan Kris Gresham John Murrian Iker Franco
Alexfri Planez Jorge Soler Kevin McWhirter Joseph Canuso
Korey Holland Jack Woolsey Stone Garrett Harold Henry

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
José Ramírez .302 .380 .551 155 6.5 .257 .330 .448 118 3.4
Andrés Giménez .295 .366 .473 133 6.0 .244 .314 .378 96 3.3
Steven Kwan .302 .376 .413 123 4.4 .246 .320 .332 86 1.3
Bo Naylor .254 .349 .461 125 3.7 .196 .292 .348 82 1.2
Brayan Rocchio .274 .338 .416 110 3.3 .226 .289 .332 75 0.7
Josh Naylor .304 .362 .520 144 3.4 .252 .308 .413 101 0.5
Ramón Laureano .257 .340 .452 120 2.5 .203 .289 .350 80 0.4
Myles Straw .273 .338 .345 93 2.4 .223 .288 .281 63 0.2
Jean Segura .284 .345 .391 105 2.1 .230 .291 .312 72 0.4
Kyle Manzardo .276 .363 .485 138 2.3 .225 .311 .378 95 0.3
Tyler Freeman .285 .354 .388 109 1.9 .228 .302 .308 74 0.4
Juan Brito .259 .348 .402 109 2.4 .204 .289 .308 68 -0.4
Will Brennan .296 .344 .420 112 2.1 .237 .287 .333 75 -0.2
Angel Martinez .254 .314 .386 94 2.1 .205 .266 .304 61 -0.3
Mike Zunino .222 .299 .495 115 1.6 .171 .248 .350 67 0.2
Gabriel Arias .256 .315 .425 106 1.9 .205 .265 .330 69 0.0
David Fry .267 .331 .448 115 1.7 .211 .278 .347 76 -0.1
Daniel Schneemann .256 .323 .382 98 1.9 .203 .268 .297 59 -0.2
Austin Hedges .222 .283 .335 70 1.2 .171 .226 .251 36 0.0
George Valera .259 .353 .422 116 1.4 .204 .293 .325 76 -0.7
Alfonso Rivas .260 .353 .398 111 1.1 .209 .298 .313 74 -0.7
Kole Calhoun .245 .317 .421 105 1.2 .192 .260 .315 64 -0.8
José Tena .251 .304 .390 92 1.3 .203 .256 .301 57 -0.9
Johnathan Rodriguez .255 .311 .438 108 1.3 .204 .261 .345 69 -1.2
Nate Furman .269 .366 .311 93 1.1 .211 .308 .243 59 -1.0
Chase DeLauter .289 .339 .421 112 0.6 .235 .285 .333 75 -0.5
Micah Pries .255 .318 .419 105 1.0 .204 .272 .334 71 -0.9
Milan Tolentino .229 .301 .323 76 1.0 .181 .250 .249 43 -1.0
Micael Ramirez .254 .323 .315 79 0.6 .192 .259 .244 44 -0.6
Deyvison De Los Santos .264 .296 .423 98 1.5 .203 .238 .319 57 -1.3
Joe Lampe .247 .318 .337 85 1.1 .192 .267 .255 48 -1.0
Jake Fox .245 .311 .362 89 0.9 .192 .261 .280 53 -1.2
Bryan Lavastida .262 .333 .394 104 1.0 .204 .278 .306 66 -1.0
Sandy León .226 .307 .312 74 0.2 .166 .248 .233 39 -0.5
Dayan Frias .244 .313 .350 88 0.8 .191 .262 .271 51 -1.1
Cam Gallagher .230 .284 .326 71 0.2 .173 .222 .239 31 -0.5
Kahlil Watson .238 .307 .414 100 0.9 .175 .249 .301 55 -1.2
Raynel Delgado .243 .311 .346 84 0.8 .194 .263 .267 51 -1.0
Aaron Bracho .234 .304 .392 95 0.9 .176 .243 .286 50 -1.3
Michael Berglund .199 .302 .298 68 0.2 .142 .241 .212 30 -0.9
Marcos Gonzalez .242 .300 .371 87 0.0 .191 .249 .284 51 -0.7
Jhonkensy Noel .243 .310 .437 105 1.0 .188 .255 .340 67 -1.9
Gabriel Rodriguez .234 .306 .337 80 0.3 .174 .249 .245 41 -1.3
Connor Kokx .236 .325 .328 83 0.3 .187 .273 .249 50 -1.3
Zack Collins .224 .320 .375 96 0.4 .172 .267 .286 58 -1.7
Cesar Idrogo .249 .301 .321 75 -0.3 .196 .246 .246 41 -1.0
Michael Amditis .202 .288 .308 67 -0.3 .145 .227 .220 27 -1.0
Julian Escobedo .229 .301 .344 80 0.0 .177 .243 .264 43 -1.3
Eric Rodriguez .218 .267 .290 55 -0.5 .156 .204 .209 17 -1.1
Jose Acosta .225 .274 .363 78 -0.2 .171 .223 .262 37 -1.4
Petey Halpin .242 .295 .346 79 0.2 .189 .242 .269 45 -2.0
Joe Naranjo .232 .315 .330 82 -0.2 .179 .259 .251 45 -2.1
Joe Donovan .223 .284 .341 75 -0.5 .159 .219 .243 30 -1.7
Alexfri Planez .239 .271 .379 80 -0.4 .184 .216 .291 44 -2.0
Korey Holland .220 .276 .352 76 -0.6 .165 .223 .257 37 -2.2

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
José Ramírez .277 .351 .484 .276 .356 .499
Andrés Giménez .267 .339 .407 .273 .339 .432
Steven Kwan .267 .335 .350 .277 .351 .379
Bo Naylor .213 .308 .367 .233 .329 .422
Brayan Rocchio .243 .312 .367 .253 .313 .369
Josh Naylor .260 .317 .433 .280 .338 .478
Ramón Laureano .240 .324 .411 .226 .309 .397
Myles Straw .248 .317 .321 .249 .314 .310
Jean Segura .262 .331 .374 .259 .313 .347
Kyle Manzardo .236 .323 .400 .256 .340 .453
Tyler Freeman .254 .325 .355 .257 .330 .339
Juan Brito .233 .319 .344 .237 .317 .362
Will Brennan .258 .312 .358 .273 .318 .390
Angel Martinez .233 .296 .354 .228 .287 .343
Mike Zunino .203 .289 .405 .193 .267 .421
Gabriel Arias .225 .291 .365 .234 .288 .380
David Fry .244 .314 .401 .232 .294 .396
Daniel Schneemann .214 .281 .302 .235 .303 .347
Austin Hedges .198 .267 .296 .196 .250 .278
George Valera .219 .311 .349 .236 .328 .386
Alfonso Rivas .223 .315 .319 .243 .333 .368
Kole Calhoun .215 .288 .376 .220 .290 .363
José Tena .226 .274 .333 .228 .282 .344
Johnathan Rodriguez .235 .297 .405 .227 .281 .377
Nate Furman .229 .328 .276 .245 .339 .279
Chase DeLauter .242 .292 .348 .268 .319 .387
Micah Pries .222 .294 .354 .231 .299 .383
Milan Tolentino .194 .264 .257 .211 .284 .295
Micael Ramirez .230 .306 .280 .217 .278 .275
Deyvison De Los Santos .237 .274 .372 .226 .257 .363
Joe Lampe .204 .278 .283 .222 .294 .295
Jake Fox .211 .282 .289 .220 .289 .336
Bryan Lavastida .235 .312 .359 .231 .298 .335
Sandy León .191 .283 .298 .194 .276 .258
Dayan Frias .209 .287 .301 .219 .289 .315
Cam Gallagher .200 .254 .255 .200 .250 .294
Kahlil Watson .198 .271 .354 .210 .280 .353
Raynel Delgado .203 .270 .273 .224 .292 .318
Aaron Bracho .197 .269 .308 .206 .272 .342
Michael Berglund .169 .269 .254 .172 .272 .250
Marcos Gonzalez .219 .286 .313 .213 .264 .338
Jhonkensy Noel .227 .294 .409 .210 .274 .362
Gabriel Rodriguez .206 .283 .301 .200 .275 .281
Connor Kokx .207 .301 .289 .209 .300 .281
Zack Collins .196 .293 .299 .201 .299 .347
Cesar Idrogo .222 .276 .259 .223 .275 .298
Michael Amditis .175 .266 .263 .174 .247 .261
Julian Escobedo .196 .275 .272 .207 .269 .315
Eric Rodriguez .191 .240 .234 .185 .229 .262
Jose Acosta .207 .263 .304 .196 .243 .319
Petey Halpin .206 .263 .291 .219 .275 .317
Joe Naranjo .203 .286 .273 .208 .293 .297
Joe Donovan .193 .256 .301 .186 .248 .280
Alexfri Planez .215 .252 .344 .202 .232 .319
Korey Holland .202 .265 .323 .187 .240 .289

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Triston McKenzie R 26 10 8 3.54 26 25 155.0 137 61 20 40 153
Shane Bieber R 29 8 6 3.52 25 24 148.3 137 58 17 37 151
Tanner Bibee R 25 8 8 3.81 27 27 148.7 136 63 18 48 140
Lucas Giolito R 29 10 10 3.93 29 29 165.0 148 72 23 59 181
Logan Allen L 25 7 7 4.06 26 26 130.7 124 59 17 46 122
Emmanuel Clase R 26 7 3 2.88 73 0 72.0 60 23 6 19 75
Gavin Williams R 24 6 7 4.12 27 27 131.0 116 60 17 53 129
Daniel Espino R 23 6 6 4.08 21 21 90.3 80 41 12 45 104
Joey Cantillo L 24 5 5 4.40 23 21 104.3 96 51 14 52 104
Will Dion L 24 4 6 4.49 23 18 100.3 100 50 12 35 76
Scott Barlow R 31 4 4 3.55 61 0 66.0 53 26 8 25 85
Jaime Barria R 27 4 4 4.16 29 7 84.3 84 39 11 25 65
Zach Plesac R 29 5 8 4.66 22 21 110.0 115 57 16 35 77
Xzavion Curry R 25 4 4 4.45 32 13 97.0 97 48 15 30 78
Eli Morgan R 28 4 4 3.99 44 6 76.7 71 34 11 22 78
Hunter Stanley R 26 6 7 4.67 23 21 104.0 111 54 14 41 71
Hunter Gaddis R 26 6 8 4.67 25 20 104.0 104 54 15 39 87
Jack Leftwich R 25 6 6 4.44 22 13 71.0 74 35 9 22 50
Ben Lively 라이블리 R 32 5 6 4.61 21 14 91.7 97 47 13 34 75
Adam Oller R 29 6 8 4.77 21 18 100.0 101 53 14 43 84
Ross Carver R 24 3 5 4.75 21 18 83.3 81 44 11 36 72
Trevor Stephan R 28 6 5 3.90 60 1 64.7 58 28 8 26 72
Cody Morris R 27 2 2 4.19 25 9 53.7 49 25 7 27 59
James Karinchak R 28 4 3 3.75 63 0 57.7 42 24 7 33 78
Sam Hentges L 27 3 2 3.61 59 0 57.3 53 23 6 23 61
Chris Vallimont R 27 5 6 4.72 25 13 82.0 83 43 11 42 75
Jaime Arias-Bautista L 25 3 3 4.60 20 9 60.7 63 31 8 21 47
Tanner Burns R 25 3 5 4.70 23 15 74.7 75 39 10 38 62
Franco Aleman R 24 5 4 3.95 34 2 54.7 50 24 6 19 55
Connor Gillispie R 26 4 6 4.84 23 12 89.3 94 48 13 38 64
Noah Syndergaard R 31 4 6 4.95 18 18 91.0 99 50 14 22 65
Nic Enright R 27 4 3 3.76 36 0 52.7 49 22 6 15 52
Andrew Misiaszek L 26 3 2 4.07 31 2 48.7 44 22 6 24 55
Davis Sharpe R 24 6 6 4.02 39 0 62.7 62 28 7 15 50
Tommy Mace R 25 4 7 5.11 21 15 98.7 106 56 13 47 65
Mason Hickman R 25 4 6 4.69 27 7 63.3 61 33 9 35 62
Nick Sandlin R 27 4 5 4.09 58 0 55.0 45 25 8 25 60
Cade Smith R 25 3 4 4.11 43 0 57.0 48 26 7 28 69
John Doxakis L 25 4 6 4.84 29 8 83.7 86 45 11 37 63
Daniel Norris L 31 3 4 4.90 29 11 68.0 68 37 10 30 56
Nick Mikolajchak R 26 3 3 4.20 38 0 40.7 38 19 5 19 40
Juan Zapata R 25 3 5 4.98 23 7 68.7 79 38 10 21 37
Tim Herrin L 27 4 4 4.33 47 0 60.3 56 29 7 28 62
Doug Nikhazy L 24 4 7 5.22 24 20 91.3 87 53 12 70 88
Jhon Romero R 29 2 3 4.50 33 1 44.0 44 22 6 18 41
Jerad Eickhoff R 33 3 6 5.27 15 13 68.3 77 40 11 25 45
Jason Bilous R 26 3 6 5.13 29 11 66.7 65 38 8 46 65
Shane McCarthy R 27 1 2 5.11 9 4 24.7 26 14 4 13 19
Phillip Diehl L 29 2 2 4.66 34 0 38.7 38 20 5 17 35
Erik Sabrowski L 26 2 2 4.97 20 1 25.3 23 14 3 17 27
Amir Garrett L 32 1 2 4.63 43 0 35.0 30 18 5 21 41
Adam Scott L 28 2 3 5.34 23 12 59.0 59 35 8 39 51
Caleb Baragar L 30 2 3 5.11 30 4 44.0 43 25 7 29 43
Tyler Brown R 25 4 5 5.10 29 5 60.0 61 34 8 36 53
Trey Benton R 26 2 3 4.86 40 0 46.3 44 25 6 27 45
Brett Daniels R 28 3 6 5.47 23 7 52.7 54 32 7 35 47
Tyler Thornton R 23 2 4 4.79 34 0 35.7 29 19 5 27 45
Jordan Jones R 26 2 4 5.27 29 5 54.7 57 32 8 37 44
Randy Labaut L 27 3 3 5.01 30 1 50.3 50 28 7 32 43
Matt Turner L 24 1 1 5.45 18 2 36.3 39 22 5 22 23
Zach Hart R 27 2 4 5.45 22 1 39.7 40 24 6 28 36
Luis Oviedo R 25 2 3 5.40 33 3 55.0 55 33 8 35 45
Nick Gallagher R 28 1 2 5.50 28 0 36.0 35 22 5 24 34
Caleb Simpson R 32 1 2 6.14 19 0 22.0 22 15 3 18 19
Bradley Hanner R 25 4 7 5.29 35 0 51.0 50 30 7 32 45

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Triston McKenzie 155.0 8.9 2.3 1.2 6.3% 24.0% .280 118 3.81 84 3.1
Shane Bieber 148.3 9.2 2.2 1.0 6.0% 24.5% .297 119 3.54 84 2.9
Tanner Bibee 148.7 8.5 2.9 1.1 7.7% 22.3% .285 110 4.02 91 2.5
Lucas Giolito 165.0 9.9 3.2 1.3 8.5% 26.0% .292 107 4.04 94 2.5
Logan Allen 130.7 8.4 3.2 1.2 8.3% 22.0% .291 103 4.23 97 1.9
Emmanuel Clase 72.0 9.4 2.4 0.8 6.5% 25.5% .284 146 3.09 69 1.8
Gavin Williams 131.0 8.9 3.6 1.2 9.5% 23.2% .280 102 4.35 98 1.8
Daniel Espino 90.3 10.4 4.5 1.2 11.3% 26.1% .297 103 4.21 97 1.3
Joey Cantillo 104.3 9.0 4.5 1.2 11.3% 22.6% .289 95 4.64 105 1.1
Will Dion 100.3 6.8 3.1 1.1 8.1% 17.7% .289 94 4.40 107 0.9
Scott Barlow 66.0 11.6 3.4 1.1 9.1% 30.8% .292 118 3.53 85 0.8
Jaime Barria 84.3 6.9 2.7 1.2 7.0% 18.2% .286 101 4.37 99 0.8
Zach Plesac 110.0 6.3 2.9 1.3 7.4% 16.2% .289 90 4.81 111 0.8
Xzavion Curry 97.0 7.2 2.8 1.4 7.2% 18.8% .285 94 4.68 106 0.7
Eli Morgan 76.7 9.2 2.6 1.3 6.9% 24.5% .290 105 4.06 95 0.7
Hunter Stanley 104.0 6.1 3.5 1.2 8.9% 15.4% .294 90 4.85 111 0.7
Hunter Gaddis 104.0 7.5 3.4 1.3 8.6% 19.3% .291 90 4.84 111 0.7
Jack Leftwich 71.0 6.3 2.8 1.1 7.1% 16.2% .293 95 4.47 106 0.7
Ben Lively 91.7 7.4 3.3 1.3 8.5% 18.7% .303 91 4.74 110 0.7
Adam Oller 100.0 7.6 3.9 1.3 9.8% 19.1% .294 88 4.87 114 0.6
Ross Carver 83.3 7.8 3.9 1.2 9.8% 19.5% .289 88 4.86 113 0.6
Trevor Stephan 64.7 10.0 3.6 1.1 9.4% 26.1% .298 108 4.03 93 0.5
Cody Morris 53.7 9.9 4.5 1.2 11.3% 24.8% .298 100 4.37 100 0.5
James Karinchak 57.7 12.2 5.2 1.1 13.2% 31.2% .276 112 3.95 89 0.5
Sam Hentges 57.3 9.6 3.6 0.9 9.2% 24.5% .305 116 3.74 86 0.5
Chris Vallimont 82.0 8.2 4.6 1.2 11.3% 20.2% .304 89 4.85 113 0.5
Jaime Arias-Bautista 60.7 7.0 3.1 1.2 8.0% 17.9% .297 91 4.51 110 0.5
Tanner Burns 74.7 7.5 4.6 1.2 11.3% 18.4% .294 89 5.02 112 0.5
Franco Aleman 54.7 9.1 3.1 1.0 8.1% 23.4% .295 106 3.93 94 0.5
Connor Gillispie 89.3 6.4 3.8 1.3 9.6% 16.1% .291 87 5.19 115 0.4
Noah Syndergaard 91.0 6.4 2.2 1.4 5.7% 16.8% .297 85 4.78 118 0.4
Nic Enright 52.7 8.9 2.6 1.0 6.8% 23.5% .297 112 3.67 90 0.4
Andrew Misiaszek 48.7 10.2 4.4 1.1 11.3% 25.8% .302 103 4.14 97 0.3
Davis Sharpe 62.7 7.2 2.2 1.0 5.6% 18.6% .293 104 4.07 96 0.3
Tommy Mace 98.7 5.9 4.3 1.2 10.6% 14.6% .294 82 5.20 122 0.3
Mason Hickman 63.3 8.8 5.0 1.3 12.2% 21.7% .295 89 4.94 112 0.2
Nick Sandlin 55.0 9.8 4.1 1.3 10.8% 25.9% .268 103 4.55 98 0.2
Cade Smith 57.0 10.9 4.4 1.1 11.3% 27.8% .293 102 4.17 98 0.2
John Doxakis 83.7 6.8 4.0 1.2 9.9% 16.9% .292 87 5.11 115 0.2
Daniel Norris 68.0 7.4 4.0 1.3 10.0% 18.7% .289 86 5.02 117 0.2
Nick Mikolajchak 40.7 8.9 4.2 1.1 10.7% 22.5% .295 100 4.29 100 0.1
Juan Zapata 68.7 4.8 2.8 1.3 6.9% 12.2% .297 84 5.16 119 0.1
Tim Herrin 60.3 9.2 4.2 1.0 10.4% 23.1% .299 97 4.20 103 0.1
Doug Nikhazy 91.3 8.7 6.9 1.2 16.2% 20.4% .294 80 5.47 125 0.1
Jhon Romero 44.0 8.4 3.7 1.2 9.2% 21.0% .302 93 4.60 107 0.1
Jerad Eickhoff 68.3 5.9 3.3 1.4 8.3% 14.9% .299 80 5.35 126 0.0
Jason Bilous 66.7 8.8 6.2 1.1 14.7% 20.8% .305 82 5.21 122 0.0
Shane McCarthy 24.7 6.9 4.7 1.5 11.6% 17.0% .293 82 5.40 122 0.0
Phillip Diehl 38.7 8.1 4.0 1.2 10.0% 20.6% .297 90 4.60 111 0.0
Erik Sabrowski 25.3 9.6 6.0 1.1 14.5% 23.1% .299 84 4.79 119 -0.1
Amir Garrett 35.0 10.5 5.4 1.3 13.3% 25.9% .287 91 4.66 110 -0.1
Adam Scott 59.0 7.8 5.9 1.2 14.2% 18.5% .295 79 5.63 127 -0.1
Caleb Baragar 44.0 8.8 5.9 1.4 14.3% 21.2% .295 82 5.48 122 -0.1
Tyler Brown 60.0 8.0 5.4 1.2 13.0% 19.2% .301 82 5.17 122 -0.1
Trey Benton 46.3 8.7 5.2 1.2 12.5% 20.8% .295 86 4.87 116 -0.2
Brett Daniels 52.7 8.0 6.0 1.2 14.2% 19.1% .305 77 5.36 130 -0.2
Tyler Thornton 35.7 11.4 6.8 1.3 16.3% 27.1% .286 87 5.16 114 -0.2
Jordan Jones 54.7 7.2 6.1 1.3 14.4% 17.1% .297 80 5.69 126 -0.2
Randy Labaut 50.3 7.7 5.7 1.3 13.7% 18.5% .293 84 5.32 119 -0.3
Matt Turner 36.3 5.7 5.4 1.2 13.0% 13.6% .291 77 5.84 130 -0.3
Zach Hart 39.7 8.2 6.4 1.4 15.1% 19.4% .298 77 5.68 130 -0.4
Luis Oviedo 55.0 7.4 5.7 1.3 13.5% 17.4% .288 78 5.86 129 -0.4
Nick Gallagher 36.0 8.5 6.0 1.3 14.3% 20.2% .297 76 5.67 131 -0.4
Caleb Simpson 22.0 7.8 7.4 1.2 16.7% 17.6% .297 68 6.30 146 -0.5
Bradley Hanner 51.0 7.9 5.6 1.2 13.4% 18.9% .293 79 5.69 126 -0.6

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Triston McKenzie Mike Mussina Ismael Valdez Francisco Cordova
Shane Bieber John Lackey Frank Lary Joaquin Andujar
Tanner Bibee Johnny Cueto Shelby Miller Taijuan Walker
Lucas Giolito Gil Meche Jack Morris Mike Boddicker
Logan Allen Greg Mathews Joe Shaute Allen Watson
Emmanuel Clase Roberto Osuna Drew Storen Kelvin Herrera
Gavin Williams Mike Campbell Shelby Miller Jaret Wright
Daniel Espino Neil Ramirez Rick van den Hurk Carl Edwards
Joey Cantillo Bill Butler Tom Fordham Juan Nieves
Will Dion Denis Boucher Bill Edgerton Pete Schourek
Scott Barlow Adam Ottavino Scot Shields Enrique Romo
Jaime Barria Anthony Swarzak 스와잭 Pedro Villarreal Bart Johnson
Zach Plesac Bill Laskey Ricky Bones Josh Fogg
Xzavion Curry Chris Corn Jim Bivin Joe Presko
Eli Morgan Sergio Valdez Francisco Oliveras Matt Wisler
Hunter Stanley Jacob Turner 터너 Keith Creel Dan Slania
Hunter Gaddis Anthony Ranaudo 레나도 Matt Roney Jay Hook
Jack Leftwich Miles Mikolas Rollie Sheldon Dillon Tate
Ben Lively Bob Milacki Ernest Groth Austin Bibens-Dirkx
Adam Oller Brian Kingman Joe Law Deck McGuire 맥과이어
Ross Carver Mike Krukow Jose Melendez Dan Larson
Trevor Stephan Jeremy Fikac Tom Wilhelmsen Shawn Kohn
Cody Morris Jared Burton Ryan Kussmaul Chad Harville
James Karinchak Ernesto Frieri Armando Benitez Freddy Schmidt
Sam Hentges Steve Kline James Pazos Craig Breslow
Chris Vallimont Dewon Brazelton Justin Miller Justin Wayne
Jaime Arias-Bautista Bryan Gore Greg Coppeta Hector Hernandez
Tanner Burns Kyle Drabek Yeiper Castillo Patrick Weigel
Franco Aleman Bret Davis Nick Vincent Ryan Meisinger
Connor Gillispie Barrett Astin Jesus Tinoco Josh Hodges
Noah Syndergaard Alex Cobb Phil Hughes Joe Genewich
Nic Enright Carlos Velazquez Steve Swetonic Brandon Lyon
Andrew Misiaszek Juan Perez Jason Jimenez Robert Dodd
Davis Sharpe Mickey Sinks Felix Roque Shane Bowers 바워스
Tommy Mace Jake Woodford Kohl Stewart Roger Williams
Mason Hickman Brandon Culp Ryne Miller Carlos Alvarado
Nick Sandlin J.J. Hoover Bobby Thigpen Cy Acosta
Cade Smith Ken Robinson Logan Kensing Jesus Colome
John Doxakis Bob Tufts Jeffry Antigua Todd Hansen
Daniel Norris Vinegar Bend Mizell Les Sweetland Don Carman
Nick Mikolajchak Rich Surhoff Bruce Cunningham Joe Kerrigan
Juan Zapata Kenny Greer Jared Bradford Daniel Cropper
Tim Herrin Josh Taylor Troy Cate Williams Jerez
Doug Nikhazy Bill Landis Duane Wilson Maximo Rosario
Jhon Romero Kirk Dressendorfer Tanner Scheppers David Carpenter
Jerad Eickhoff Paul Wilson Steve Sundra Aaron Small
Jason Bilous Dorn Taylor Hal Garrett Bill Melvin
Shane McCarthy Eddie Moore William Gerhardt Dave Baldwin
Phillip Diehl Fred Scherman Tommy Hottovy Shawn Barton
Erik Sabrowski Gerry Rub Darrin Winston 윈스턴 Michael Odum
Amir Garrett Al Hrabosky Dave Hamilton Yorkis Perez
Adam Scott Dean Hummel Grover Powell Bill Henry
Caleb Baragar Bob Macdonald Keith Hessler Mickey McDermott
Tyler Brown Seth McGarry Sung-Wei Tseng Malcom Culver
Trey Benton Matt Custred Curtis Voyles Steve Mintz
Brett Daniels Jake Robbins Eduardo Paulino Jarod Juelsgaard
Tyler Thornton Rex Barney Patrick Cassaday George Jeffcoat
Jordan Jones Eduardo Paulino Jerry Martin Pat Light
Randy Labaut Andrew Faulkner Phil Nastu Mike Dalton
Matt Turner Dionicio Gonzalez Shane Wallace Albert Minnis
Zach Hart Kris Harvey Eddy Reyes Kevin Meistickle
Luis Oviedo Rafael Dolis Craig Hanson Steve Martin
Nick Gallagher Marcel Lachemann Jeff Austin Luis Alberto Niebla
Caleb Simpson Jack Berly Bill Wilson Bobby Hogue
Bradley Hanner Travis Chambers Benito Malave Rafael Dolis

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Triston McKenzie .232 .289 .371 .231 .279 .404 4.1 2.2 3.06 4.08
Shane Bieber .242 .296 .407 .237 .281 .368 3.8 2.0 3.05 4.10
Tanner Bibee .241 .306 .395 .235 .296 .386 3.5 1.5 3.35 4.41
Lucas Giolito .225 .298 .371 .243 .306 .425 3.6 1.1 3.42 4.67
Logan Allen .220 .280 .347 .255 .322 .426 2.7 0.9 3.57 4.70
Emmanuel Clase .227 .275 .344 .217 .271 .329 2.5 0.8 2.28 3.88
Gavin Williams .254 .350 .438 .214 .280 .348 2.6 0.6 3.63 4.86
Daniel Espino .232 .339 .391 .232 .306 .397 2.0 0.3 3.47 4.94
Joey Cantillo .254 .338 .395 .233 .328 .403 1.9 0.2 3.83 5.04
Will Dion .217 .286 .342 .271 .330 .436 1.4 0.3 4.06 5.01
Scott Barlow .223 .307 .366 .207 .280 .356 1.6 -0.2 2.65 5.00
Jaime Barria .248 .304 .401 .259 .311 .431 1.4 0.2 3.58 4.85
Zach Plesac .266 .332 .438 .262 .312 .438 1.4 0.1 4.20 5.19
Xzavion Curry .270 .330 .470 .240 .294 .403 1.4 0.2 3.85 5.02
Eli Morgan .244 .295 .400 .236 .299 .410 1.3 0.0 3.36 5.05
Hunter Stanley .278 .348 .465 .258 .318 .406 1.4 0.1 4.20 5.15
Hunter Gaddis .259 .343 .432 .251 .321 .422 1.5 0.1 4.06 5.20
Jack Leftwich .250 .315 .424 .275 .319 .430 1.1 0.3 3.99 4.90
Ben Lively .271 .350 .458 .261 .319 .420 1.2 0.0 4.08 5.26
Adam Oller .254 .343 .414 .258 .331 .437 1.3 -0.1 4.24 5.42
Ross Carver .261 .367 .431 .238 .311 .401 1.1 -0.1 4.27 5.40
Trevor Stephan .246 .331 .386 .224 .300 .388 1.1 -0.2 3.27 4.73
Cody Morris .255 .354 .449 .220 .306 .349 1.0 0.1 3.48 4.85
James Karinchak .198 .315 .340 .198 .306 .349 1.2 -0.3 2.93 4.96
Sam Hentges .206 .267 .279 .255 .331 .418 1.1 0.0 2.95 4.38
Chris Vallimont .265 .358 .419 .250 .339 .429 1.1 -0.1 4.20 5.39
Jaime Arias-Bautista .261 .307 .362 .263 .328 .450 0.9 0.0 4.02 5.28
Tanner Burns .246 .346 .403 .264 .348 .440 0.9 0.0 4.24 5.21
Franco Aleman .240 .321 .375 .237 .302 .386 0.9 -0.1 3.23 4.89
Connor Gillispie .277 .356 .470 .254 .332 .413 1.0 -0.2 4.34 5.43
Noah Syndergaard .279 .335 .471 .264 .311 .435 1.0 -0.1 4.35 5.50
Nic Enright .242 .300 .385 .241 .289 .393 0.9 -0.1 3.07 4.50
Andrew Misiaszek .196 .262 .286 .252 .349 .435 0.8 0.0 3.40 4.69
Davis Sharpe .264 .317 .445 .244 .299 .356 0.8 -0.1 3.36 4.68
Tommy Mace .262 .349 .414 .276 .352 .453 0.7 -0.3 4.75 5.59
Mason Hickman .246 .341 .412 .248 .348 .414 0.7 -0.2 4.17 5.33
Nick Sandlin .233 .343 .433 .207 .290 .353 0.7 -0.5 3.43 5.29
Cade Smith .219 .324 .375 .225 .324 .375 0.8 -0.4 3.40 4.93
John Doxakis .241 .323 .384 .269 .360 .447 0.7 -0.4 4.35 5.45
Daniel Norris .233 .321 .397 .263 .342 .438 0.6 -0.4 4.42 5.68
Nick Mikolajchak .243 .325 .446 .241 .319 .361 0.5 -0.2 3.53 4.96
Juan Zapata .286 .341 .476 .281 .339 .451 0.5 -0.3 4.47 5.49
Tim Herrin .211 .299 .329 .255 .337 .414 0.6 -0.4 3.65 5.10
Doug Nikhazy .221 .328 .327 .255 .390 .442 0.8 -0.7 4.66 6.01
Jhon Romero .266 .348 .456 .245 .321 .394 0.4 -0.4 3.79 5.42
Jerad Eickhoff .300 .374 .515 .259 .321 .429 0.4 -0.4 4.78 5.96
Jason Bilous .238 .369 .352 .261 .376 .449 0.6 -0.6 4.48 5.96
Shane McCarthy .271 .364 .479 .260 .333 .440 0.2 -0.1 4.64 5.81
Phillip Diehl .235 .328 .333 .260 .336 .460 0.3 -0.4 3.99 5.55
Erik Sabrowski .241 .371 .414 .235 .346 .368 0.2 -0.3 4.23 5.81
Amir Garrett .208 .309 .292 .235 .347 .459 0.3 -0.5 3.67 5.96
Adam Scott .219 .348 .342 .270 .387 .453 0.4 -0.6 4.76 6.03
Caleb Baragar .259 .377 .448 .246 .356 .430 0.3 -0.7 4.30 6.48
Tyler Brown .279 .397 .452 .241 .329 .398 0.3 -0.6 4.58 5.74
Trey Benton .233 .353 .407 .255 .343 .404 0.1 -0.6 4.30 5.59
Brett Daniels .276 .407 .402 .248 .343 .438 0.3 -0.7 4.74 6.49
Tyler Thornton .215 .370 .385 .217 .353 .391 0.2 -0.6 4.08 5.85
Jordan Jones .274 .402 .442 .254 .348 .434 0.2 -0.7 4.71 6.08
Randy Labaut .213 .310 .311 .272 .379 .471 0.1 -0.7 4.40 5.85
Matt Turner .279 .404 .395 .265 .361 .461 0.0 -0.6 4.91 6.20
Zach Hart .239 .378 .388 .270 .371 .472 -0.1 -0.8 4.87 6.50
Luis Oviedo .255 .368 .449 .254 .382 .407 -0.1 -0.8 4.91 6.10
Nick Gallagher .246 .380 .415 .253 .380 .427 -0.1 -0.8 4.69 6.49
Caleb Simpson .286 .423 .429 .227 .386 .409 -0.3 -0.8 5.26 7.70
Bradley Hanner .272 .398 .457 .234 .357 .383 -0.2 -1.0 4.77 6.00

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombonemember
2 months ago

I think I’m taking the under on the Guardians collectively. I don’t think that there’s any one projection that is dramatically too high, except maybe Gimenez. But I’m skeptical enough of the projections on Straw, Rocchio, Gimenez, and the rotation depth after guys inevitably start getting hurt that I think it’s overshooting by a just a little bit.

I think 2025 is going to be their year, though. Rocchio will either have failed and they’ll move on to Plan B by then or he’ll have worked out his problems, and I think Manzardo will be a strong addition to the lineup by the start of 2025. The pitching depth will be better, with some set of Messick / Espino / Denholm / Campbell being ready to serve as upper-level reserves. I’m also curious to see how long it takes for Chase DeLauter to make the majors. ZiPS doesn’t know what to do with him yet since he hasn’t played much but he’s probably the guy most likely to provide a jolt in 2025 in the outfield. Ramirez will be older but I think he will be more than offset by everyone else.

EonADS
2 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Much as I’m a fan of this team, I agree. I’m not as down on Gimenez as some, and would take the over on both Naylor brothers, but the outfield is almost certainly going to fall short of those projections. And I’m really not a fan of Logan Allen. The way he uses his non-changeup pitches is about as bad as it could possibly be. Add in injuries, and this squad looks like an average team.

jts19member
2 months ago
Reply to  EonADS

What are your qualms with how he used his non-changeup pitches?

EonADS
2 months ago
Reply to  jts19

His fastball is low-spin and has much greater drop than typical fastballs. Ditto his cutter. However, he throws both of them up in the zone constantly, where they’re going to get hammered and in areas where their natural drop takes them into the middle of the zone or the opponent’s swing path. And it showed. His cutter in particular was one of the least valuable pitches in the sport, and his fastball was also below-average. On top of that, he was one of the pitchers most prone to opponents fouling off pitches and extending at-bats, because he was predictable and consistently located his most vulnerable pitches in bad spots. If some of those got hit forward, he could easily have been a lot worse than he was because of how much his cutter and 4-seam got hit into the “sweet spot” range of launch angles.

His breaking pitches are fine to decent, but his fastball usage is awful.

Last edited 2 months ago by EonADS
Left of Centerfield
2 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think it’s hard to get excited about the Guardians because so much of the team is built around pitching and defense. Even an optimistic view of the offense only gets them to about league average.

Anyway, in my opinion. the keys for the Guardians this coming year will be McKenzie and the bullpen. McKenzie looked horrible in his two starts after coming back from injury (6 IP, 9BB, 1K). So who knows what they’ll get out of him this year. If they get the 2022 version, that will help a lot. If not, that’s a big problem. Meanwhile, the bullpen still has most of the same arms that were dominant in 2022. If they return to that level, that will obviously help quite a bit. But if they pitch like they did in 2023, then they’re going to have problems again.

soddingjunkmail
2 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I’d feel very comfortable taking the under on both Bieber and Gimenez.

This team is in a frustrating spot – they’re good enough that they should be adding to make a run at contending in a weak division, but it’s unclear how they should improve. Hitting is scarce this offseason, and while there are pitching options, anyone that’s going to provide more than a marginal upgrade on their internal 2WAR options is likely to be WAY out of their price range.

Cool Lester Smoothmember
2 months ago

I’d take the under on Gimenez’s defensive projection…but a 115 wRC+ doesn’t seem crazy to me