Nico Hoerner is a mix of old school and new school when it comes to hitting. He’s also a mix of contact and emerging gap-to-gap power. Drafted 24th overall by the Chicago Cubs out of Stanford University in 2018, the 25-year-old second baseman is coming off a season where he slashed .281/.327/.410 with 10 home runs and a 106 wRC+. Possessing potential that easily exceeds his to-date performance, he projects as a cornerstone in the Cubs’ lineup for years to come.

Hoerner discussed his continuing evolution as a hitter, including how he balances an appreciation of metrics and a keep-it-simple approach, following a recent spring training game in Mesa, Arizona.

———

David Laurila: How have you evolved as a hitter since coming to pro ball? Are you mostly the same guy?

Nico Hoerner: “For the most part, I don’t think guys really change that much. The guys that improve a lot are often doubling down on their strengths. They’re learning what they do best and are more consistent with that. I’ve definitely made improvements — there are things that have changed over the years — but I think my foundation is pretty similar.”

Laurila: I recall reading that you made a swing adjustment shortly after you signed, the goal being to hit more balls in the air. Is that accurate?

Hoerner: “I’ve never wanted to hit a ground ball in my life, to be honest with you. A lot of it comes from the pitches you swing at, how your body is moving, and learning your own strengths.”


Laurila: That said, was there an actual adjustment?

Hoerner: “Yeah. I think what you swing at is going to be the biggest factor in the balls that you put in play. I’m looking to hit the ball hard, hit high line drives as much as I can, and swing at pitches in the middle of the plate. Over time, with more at-bats, more experience, that really comes about.” Read the rest of this entry »

David Ross was 38 years old and still strapping on the tools of ignorance when he was featured here at FanGraphs in February 2016. The title of the piece was David Ross: Future Big League Manager, and as many in the industry had suggested it would, that supposition soon came to fruition. The longtime catcher is currently embarking on what will be his fourth season at the helm of the Chicago Cubs. I recently asked Ross how he approaches the job philosophically now that he’s firmly in the trenches.

“My style — the way I approach being a manager — is leadership and direction, but I’m also still a player at heart,” Ross told me. “I understand what these guys are going through, competing for jobs and different roles. Communicating through that as a former player, someone who experienced it, I can relate to them. I try to keep a player’s mindset as part of my decision-making.”

Jed Hoyer was the club’s General Manager when the Cubs hired Ross following the 2019 season. I asked the now President of Baseball Operations about the process that informed that decision. Read the rest of this entry »

In April 2016, a 23-year-old part-time plumber from Oklahoma showed up in Detroit, learned a changeup, and immediately became one of the best pitchers in the American League. In the previous two seasons, the Tigers had lost David Price, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello, and were in dire need of a no. 2 starter.

Michael Fulmer was that good, winning AL Rookie of the Year and making the All-Star team in 2017, before injuries — shoulder bursitis, a torn meniscus, and a series of escalating elbow injuries that culminated in Tommy John surgery — intervened. The torn UCL cost him all of 2019 and led into a 2020 season he would’ve been better off missing as well: 10 starts, just 27 2/3 innings pitched, and more earned runs allowed (27) than strikeouts (20).

Three years later, he’s preparing for his first season as a Chicago Cub. He turned 30 this week, and the tuft of black hair that used to stick out from under his cap is gone, as Fulmer’s opted for a Price-like shaved head-and-beard look. And rather than a potential ace, he’s now a potential closer. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the point in the offseason when it’s time for one of my favorite/most hated preseason traditions: my attempt to predict breakouts and busts. Since any breakouts or busts beyond what a projection system suggests are naturally going to be low-probability outcomes, there’s a high probability of me looking pretty silly — something writers try to avoid. Let’s start by looking back at how smart I was last year…or how foolish:

First, the bad news. Kelenic and Adell were both just awful, and I would definitely call 2022 a giant miss for both players as they enter their post-prospect period. I suspect there’s more hope to still be had for Kelenic than Adell, but I wouldn’t exactly call myself prescient about either. Kepler’s breakout didn’t happen at all, and his power all but disappeared. Anderson I’ll call an incomplete because of injury, and while Higashioka did match his entire previous career in WAR, that was largely due to defense, which I can hardly claim credit for predicting. Hiura did hit far better than he had recently, but he also didn’t exactly get a ton of playing time with the Brewers, who appeared to have lost interest in him. There were a few triumphs, however: Kwan and Lux both had excellent seasons, especially the former. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Kenta Maeda pitching well despite PitchCom giving away his signs, spring training injuries (5:26), the upsides and downsides of pitchers beginning to call their own pitches with PitchCom (9:03), and the reasons why hitters collectively seem to swing more often than they should (20:18). Then they continue (and pass the halfway point of) their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Los Angeles Dodgers (40:01) with Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, and the Chicago Cubs (1:19:32) with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, plus a Past Blast from 1976 (2:07:56).

Audio intro: Faye, “Swing State”
Audio interstitial 1: Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, “Requiem K. 626 – Lux Aeterna”
Audio interstitial 2: Andy Fairweather Low, “Halfway to Everything”
Audio outro: Lucy Dacus, “Triple Dog Dare”

Link to ESPN on Maeda
Link to Turner-Hernández video
Link to EW shart discussion
Link to Rob Arthur on sign-stealing
Link to article on training w/o games
Link to Greinke calling own pitches
Link to Maddux calling own pitches
Link to old EW on calling own pitches
Link to Scherzer on PitchCom legality
Link to ESPN on pitchers calling pitches
Link to article on Padres pitch calls
Link to article on Burnes pitch calls
Link to article on Giants pitch calls
Link to tweet about Ohtani pitch calls
Link to article on Cole pitch calls
Link to article on Severino pitch calls
Link to video of Scherzer pitch calls
Link to hitter run values on swings
Link to Tom Tango thread on swings
Link to Devan Fink on swings
Link to Eno Sarris on swings
Link to Swing decision Run Value
Link to Vargas not swinging
Link to Tango on approaches by count
Link to Tango on sliders
Link to Tom Verducci on sliders
Link to Rob on playing deeper
Link to Rob on BABIP/defense
Link to Russell on OBP > BA
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to FG payroll breakdown
Link to Dodgers offseason tracker
Link to Dodgers depth chart
Link to Ben Clemens on the Dodgers
Link to Fabian on Syndergaard
Link to article on Heyward’s swing
Link to Fabian’s spring preview
Link to Dodgers first-round picks
Link to Fabian’s author archive
Link to Cubs offseason tracker
Link to Cubs depth chart
Link to EW preview series wiki
Link to 2019 Pitch Lab piece
Link to 2022 Pitch Lab piece
Link to Sahadev on Hendricks
Link to Sahadev on Ricketts
Link to Sahadev on Bellinger
Link to Sahadev on Madrigal
Link to Sahadev on Taillon
Link to Sahadev on sweepers
Link to EW Bellinger roundtable
Link to Woodward on back-picks
Link to Sahadev’s spring preview
Link to Sahadev’s author archive
Link to 1976 article source
Link to HoF site on the shorts
Link to Paul Lukas on the shorts
Link to Chris Creamer on the shorts
Link to Costanza uniforms video
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to MLBTR on Painter
Link to NPB triple-digit uniform
Link to CPBL no. 999
Link to triple-digit ump uniforms
Link to Spaceman uni source
Link to Lee wearing 337

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The offseason is beginning to wrap up, but there are still plenty of names still available to help boost the fringes of teams’ rosters, especially in depth relievers. Last week, Michael Fulmer became the latest of these signings, inking a one-year deal with the Cubs.

The bulk of Fulmer’s big league career has been spent in Detroit, where he won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2016. With a 3.06 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 159 innings, he looked to be the future ace of a Tigers rotation that had lost Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer a couple years earlier and would lose Justin Verlander the next season. But after two more seasons where he performed around league average and a 2019 campaign completely lost to Tommy John surgery, Fulmer went through a catastrophic 2020, with an ERA near nine and less than three innings per start. It seemed like his time as a productive big leaguer was over, and it was — as a starter. But he’s performed quite well over the past two years in the bullpen, posting career bests in ERA and strikeouts.

While Fulmer had above-average seasons as a starter, he had neither big-time swing-and-miss stuff nor pinpoint command, succeeding despite pedestrian numbers in the strikeout and walk departments. Instead, his best years were characterized by a solid ability to suppress hard contact and home runs, possibly aided by his cavernous home ballpark. He throws two fastball variants but has shown a slight preference for the sinker, which has allowed him to run a groundball rate that’s consistently a few points above the league average. Read the rest of this entry »

Carter Hawkins knows the Guardians organization well. Prior to becoming the General Manager of the Chicago Cubs in October 2021, the 38-year-old Vanderbilt University alum spent 14 seasons in Cleveland, serving as a scout, Director of Player Development, and Assistant General Manager. With the Guardians’ well-earned reputation of being a progressive organization with an outstanding pitching-development program, I asked Hawkins a question during November’s GM Meetings:

How similar are the two organizations, and in which ways do they differ?

“I would say the best thing in terms of similarities is that there are a lot of team-first people in both places, as opposed to me-first people,” replied Hawkins. “The obvious market-size difference stands out. There are more opportunities in Chicago to utilize resources — you can have a higher risk tolerance — whereas in Cleveland there is the challenge of having to be very process-oriented to make a decision. If you have a lot of resources, you don’t necessarily have that pressure on you. At the same time, there is no reason that you can’t be just as process-oriented in a larger market.”

The disparity in payrolls is notable. Roster Resource projects the Cubs’ 2023 payroll at $184M, and Cleveland’s at just $91M. Last year those numbers were $147M and $69M. Read the rest of this entry »

Owen Caissie has a high ceiling and a long way to go to reach it. Acquired by the Chicago Cubs from the San Diego Padres as part of the December 2020 Yu Darvish deal, the left-handed-hitting outfielder is 20 years old and has just 159 professional games under his belt. Moreover, he was drafted out of cold-weather Burlington, Ontario. As Eric Longenhagen noted when ranking the 2020 second-rounder No. 3 on last year’s Cubs Top Prospects list (and just outside of our overall Top 100), Caissie “had never played a night game in his life until the Arizona Complex League opener in 2021.”

Looking mostly at the raw numbers, Caissie’s future looks less sunny than it did prior to last season. Playing in High-A South Bend, he slashed an uninspiring .254/.349/.402 with 11 home runs in 433 plate appearances, and that was followed by an even more lackluster .220/.270/.356 line in the Arizona Fall League. Perspective is needed; Caissie was a teenager for the first half of the season, and his tools, originally crafted in Canada, are both projectable and loud. He simply remains relatively raw.

Caissie, who is listed at 6-foot-4, 190 pounds, discussed his early-career development during his stint in the AFL.

———

David Laurila: Let’s start with your development as a hitter. How have you evolved since entering pro ball?

Owen Caissie: “I feel like what has changed the most is… I mean, I did make some swing adjustments. When I got drafted, I was kind of bent down, and now I’m straight up. But what’s really changed is my approach, my pitch selection, my ability to kind of keyhole the ball in the middle. I’ve never read my scouting report. I wouldn’t even know how to get to it. But there are obviously holes in my game that I need to close up.”

Laurila: What type of hitter do you consider yourself?

Caissie: “I like to classify myself as a hitter over a power hitter. At least that’s what I try to be.” Read the rest of this entry »

On New Year’s Day, the Cubs’ first base-and-DH situation was a smoking crater. But now the fires have been extinguished and the hole is being filled with aggregate; the Eric Hosmer signing got the process started, and over the weekend, Chicago inked Trey Mancini — of the Italian national team, apparently — to a two-year contract.

Mancini’s coming off a bit of an odd year. He hit .268/.347/.404 in 92 games for Baltimore, then got traded to the Astros at the deadline and apparently forgot to bring his bats south. A disappointing .176/.258/.364 showing in August and September turned into an appalling playoff campaign in which he started 0-for-18.

So, in his most recent and most widely viewed major league experience, Mancini had onlookers saying things like, “But I thought pitchers didn’t hit anymore.” On the other hand, he’d been a consistent 20-homer guy across the first four years of his career, and even as recently as July had a wRC+ of 116. Perhaps his power wasn’t ideal for a middle-of-the-order bat, but he got on base and hit for a decent average. Read the rest of this entry »

Last January, inspired by Cedric Mullins’s 2021 decision to stop switch-hitting, I tried to identify other switch-hitters who might benefit from swinging from one side or the other. Going beyond simply calculating the largest platoon splits, I relied on handedness splits for some of the players’ key underlying batted ball and plate discipline metrics. The idea was that there could be a path to improvement if these switch-hitters eliminated their severe underperformance from one side of the plate. Of course, the other option is simply to work on their weaker swing and become a better overall switch-hitter.

One of the batters I identified as a candidate to hit left-handed full-time was Ian Happ. Through 2021, Happ had posted a 55 point platoon split, the second-highest among the 25 switch-hitters in the sample. Happ crushes right-handed pitching from the left side, but all of his batted ball peripherals are significantly weaker when swinging from the right. Instead of taking my advice (thank goodness), Happ posted the best season of his career against left-handed pitching in 2022:

Read the rest of this entry »