This is going to sound harsh right at the start, but here’s the deal. Craig Kimbrel is an objectively good major league pitcher. Alek Thomas is an objectively mediocre major league hitter. I’m not trying to say anything bad about Thomas, to be clear. I think he’s an awesome player, the kind of guy I’d like to have on my team for his impressive defensive ability. But Thomas started the day on the bench, and Kimbrel started the day as the Phillies closer. Neither of them look likely to head back to that role any time soon.

Why? Because after three hours and 14 pitchers, Game 4 of the NLCS came down to a simple matchup. Kimbrel stood on the mound. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. lounged on second base after a double to start the eighth. With a two-run lead, Kimbrel had a simple mission: keep the ball in the ballpark. His opponent? Thomas, who came in to pinch hit for Emmanuel Rivera. Thomas isn’t anyone’s idea of an ace pinch hitter. He compiled a 71 wRC+ this season, which brought his career mark to 72. He came into the game with a 56 wRC+ in the playoffs. The Phillies started a lefty, and it looked like Thomas might spend Friday’s game like he did Thursday’s, hanging out on the bench and then pinch running.

There was just one problem for Philadelphia: Kimbrel didn’t have his curveball. He’s built a Hall of Fame career on two pitches, but the standout is a knuckle curve that seems to tear the fabric of spacetime on its way home. It’s one of those pitches that, when it’s working, can’t be countered. It starts right in the middle of the plate, and then poof, it’s in the dirt while you flail helplessly. But on Friday, none of that was true. The first three curves Kimbrel threw missed badly. The fourth spun invitingly in the zone, and Evan Longoria barely missed it, socking a 96 mph line drive to deep left that landed in Brandon Marsh’s glove. Then Kimbrel missed with two curves to spot Thomas a 2-0 count. Read the rest of this entry »

With his team down two games to none in the NLCS and practically having been blown off the field by the Phillies on Tuesday night, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo had his work cut out for him, particularly given that he had little alternative but to send rookie Brandon Pfaadt, he of the 5.72 ERA and 5.18 FIP, to the Chase Field mound for a must-win game. But from the reconfigured lineup to the decision to pull Pfaadt after he’d put up a string of zeroes, just about everything Lovullo set in motion paid off. In a nailbiter, the Diamondbacks won, 2–1, on Ketel Marte’s walk-off single off Craig Kimbrel.

One couldn’t have blamed the Diamondbacks for entering this game in shell shock. Philadelphia put up five runs on ace Zac Gallen in Game 1 before Arizona closed the gap for a respectable 5–3 loss, then wore down Merrill Kelly and teed off on the soft underbelly of the Diamondbacks’ bullpen for a 10–0 rout in Game 2. Beyond the combined 15–3 score, the Phillies out-homered the Diamondbacks, 6–1 — all solo shots but mostly emphatic ones, with four of the six projected at 420 feet or more. They out-hit them convincingly, combining for a .313/.400/.688 line against Arizona’s .129/.167/.194 mark. Phillies pitchers collected 23 strikeouts against only three walks; the Diamondbacks struck out just 10 and walked nine.

With Phillies manager Rob Thomson tabbing lefty Ranger Suárez for the start, Lovullo switched things up, flip-flopping Marte and Corbin Carroll atop the lineup — a sensible move, given that the former posted for a 146 wRC+ against lefties, the latter just a 96. Marte responded by going 3-for-5 with the game-winning hit. Lovullo also moved slugging catcher Gabriel Moreno, another lefty-masher (139 wRC+ against) from fifth to third and started Emmanuel Rivera (92 wRC+ against lefties) at third base, put Evan Longoria at DH, and gave right field to Tommy Pham, who hadn’t played with a glove on since September 22 due to a bout of turf toe. With Pham in right, Carroll moved to center, with Alek Thomas (who hit for just a 12 wRC+ against lefties) on the bench; when Pham singled to start the seventh inning, Thomas pinch-ran and scored the game-tying run. Read the rest of this entry »

Every play in a scoreless postseason game is pivotal. The Phillies, despite being the better team on paper with a 1–0 series lead in the bag, could ill afford to give away cheap outs on either side of the ball. Six days ago, Brandon Marsh listed the lessons the team had learned from blowing a lead in Georgia two nights previous: “Put them out of it. Finish the job. Don’t let them climb back in the game.”

Trea Turner committed two errors in that game, the second of which led directly to Atlanta’s first run of the playoffs. It snapped the best offensive team of the regular season back to life and arguably started a stunning comeback that could’ve knocked the Phillies off their axis.

Aaron Nola was excellent in his first two postseason starts of 2023, but he’s been prone to big innings both in this regular season and last year’s playoffs. The last thing he needed was one of the fastest players in the league to reach base and cause trouble. Read the rest of this entry »

Both the Phillies and Diamondbacks entered this Championship Series on a playoff tear, combining for just one loss during their four series wins. But in the battle for the NL pennant, one team’s good fortune would have to end, and so far, Arizona has been unable to deal with the buzzsaw that is Philadelphia’s roster. A day after a close loss headlined by the three home runs Zac Gallen surrendered, the Phillies hit another trio of dingers off the Diamondbacks’ no. 2 starter, Merrill Kelly, and it only continued downhill from there.

While playoff games have been increasingly defined by the reliever parades enabled by an abundance of off days, this game was a battle of two workhorse starters. Aaron Nola and Kelly both rank in the top 10 in baseball in innings over the past two years, and are consistently available to go deep into games. A lot happened in the final three innings on Tuesday, a stretch that exposed the stark difference in the quality of these two bullpens, but we can focus much of our attention on the rotation members dueling from each team.

Nola’s performance this year was uncharacteristically poor by his standards. He’s always possessed some of the best command in baseball, and he throws a hellacious two-planed knuckle curve as his strikeout pitch. But despite that, he had a 101 ERA- and 90 FIP- this season. His strikeout and walk rates were still great, but his home run rate ballooned, as he couldn’t keep his pitches away from the middle of the plate. His pitches in the “heart” zone, as measured by Statcast, were too predictable, costing him seven runs compared to average after dominating that area previously. It meant that his results had a hard ceiling despite having great stuff and avoiding free baserunners. But his six scoreless innings in Game 2 brought his ERA this postseason down to a tiny 0.96; more impressively, he hasn’t allowed a single home run in his three playoff starts. Let’s see how his arsenal shut down Arizona’s bats. Read the rest of this entry »

PHILADELPHIA – The last time the Arizona Diamondbacks won a game in the NLCS, Randy Johnson took the win and Erubiel Durazo hit the game-winning home run off Tom Glavine. It’s been a minute.

When Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen took the mound in Philadelphia, he was hoping to make a dent in that history; the Phillies have been red hot all October, but so has Arizona, and Gallen’s arm is one of the best weapons the D-backs have. But Kyle Schwarber hit the first pitch Gallen threw off the video board on the facing of the second deck at Citizens Bank Park. A minute? The Phillies took the lead in seconds. Two batters later, Bryce Harper crushed another fastball out to right center. It wasn’t quite over before it began, but the Phillies took the lead on the first pitch they saw and never gave it up.

“The reality is we were probably going to lose a game at some point,” Evan Longoria offered after the game, attempting to put the defeat in perspective. But the Phillies roughed Gallen up early and held off a series of late rallies to win 5-3. Surely it was not the manner of defeat anyone from the Diamondbacks had in mind. Read the rest of this entry »

Gabriel Moreno is one of several exciting and talented young backstops in the big leagues (and these playoffs). After coming to Arizona with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in exchange for Daulton Varsho, he got the opportunity to be the primary catcher and show off the skills he displayed in the minor leagues. He made an immediate defensive impact despite his offensive struggles in the beginning of the season; when the league was running wild in the spring, he was prepared, throwing guys out left and right. But his bat took a second to come around, likely due to ongoing discomfort in his lead shoulder. He eventually made a trip to the injured list, but when he returned, he looked as healthy as can be, posting a 141 wRC+ in the second half and playing excellent defense.

During the Diamondbacks’ improbable run and five-game postseason win streak, there is no question that Corbin Carroll has been their best player. But when you sweep a team that finished with 16 more wins in the regular season, you’re going to need more help, and Moreno has been a formidable co-star. He’s continued his hot streak to close the season into October. With more health, his row and barrel tip have gotten looser and turned his ability to make consistent hard contact into loud home runs in timely situations. He only had seven in the regular season across 380 plate appearances, but his launch angle distribution improved dramatically when he got healthy:

All this to say, it’s not shocking to see him take swings like his 419-foot home run against Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of the NLDS — a swing that came on the tail end of an impressive at-bat. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 regular season was a tumultuous one for the Arizona Diamondbacks. They were one of baseball’s best teams in the first half, with the fourth-best record in the league on July 1. Then in the month of July, they went just 8-16, tied for the second-worst record in baseball. They started August off on a nine-game losing streak before going 11-2 in their next 13 games. The rest of the season would be much of the same – losing five of six, then winning five of six, and so on and so forth. The club secured a playoff spot with an 8-2 stretch from September 15–27, before losing its final four regular-season games. From a playoff-odds perspective, the roller coaster looked like this:

If one of the defining characteristics of the Diamondbacks’ 2023 regular season was volatility, the bullpen was no exception. After a slow start, the group had a strong May, collapsed to be one of the league’s worst in July, and battled back to have a quite effective final month. By the time they’d played 162, 30 pitchers had appeared in relief for Arizona – just two NL teams used more. Entering a short-series playoff format (have you heard about the short-series playoff format?), the pressure was on for the rostered subset to find their best, holding leads when they had them and keeping games close when they didn’t. Through two rounds, they’ve more than answered the call:

Read the rest of this entry »

If you need a reminder that anything can happen in a short postseason series, this is it, because the Phillies and Diamondbacks just pulled off two of the biggest upsets in postseason history as defined by regular season winning percentage differentials. The Phillies (90-72, .556) upended the Braves (104-58, .642) in a four-game thriller that left presumptive NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. speechless while the Diamondbacks (84-78, .519) swept the Dodgers (100-62, .617) into oblivion, holding MVP candidate Mookie Betts hitless and knocking Clayton Kershaw out in the first inning.

Perhaps the results shouldn’t have been quite as shocking as they were, given that we’ve all seen our share of October upsets. The Phillies should remind us of that, as a cast very similar to this year’s knocked off a powerhouse Braves team on the way to their first pennant in 13 years just last season. It’s worth remembering as we evaluate any postseason team that they’ve all undergone substantial changes — some for the better, some for the worse — on their way through the 162-game season and the first two rounds of the postseason.

By the regular season numbers, this would appear to be a mismatch, with the Phillies having an edge in every category except strikeout and walk rates, stolen bases, and baserunning. Thus far in the postseason, however, the two teams have been very similar, each thumping 13 homers and producing similar slash lines. The Phillies have hit .274/.354/.538 (137 wRC+), scoring 52% of their runs via homers, and stealing nine bases, while the Diamondbacks have hit .262/.347/.530 (133 wRC+), scoring 47% of their runs via homers, and stealing seven bases. That said, it’s a stretch to suggest the two lineups are of equal strength, particularly given that Arizona doesn’t have a left-handed option to start, though some of Philadelphia’s righties are vulnerable to same-side pitching. Read the rest of this entry »

It doesn’t take deep analysis to realize that if your starting pitchers combine to allow 13 runs and record 14 outs, your chances of winning a short series aren’t very good. Likewise if the two superstar MVP candidates atop your lineup go 1-for-21, your four 100-RBI guys combine to drive in one (1) run, and your entire team slugs .250. With numbers like that, it’s not too hard to explain the fate of the 2023 Dodgers, who were swept by the Diamondbacks in the Division Series that concluded on Wednesday night at Chase Field. Despite a slow start to their season and considerable upheaval in their rotation, the Dodgers won 100 games and cruised to their 10th division title in 11 years, but for the third year in a row, they were ousted by a team that finished the regular season miles behind them.

Indeed, the Dodgers’ exit from the past three postseasons accounts for three of the largest differentials in winning percentage between winner and loser in major league history:

Note the increasing frequency with which such upsets have happened, owing to the continued expansion of the postseason. When the two pennant winners went straight to the World Series, it was less likely their records would differ so greatly unless one won at least 70% of its games. And where we once had one postseason series per year, now we have 11, creating so many more opportunities for what look to be mismatches — except that in a short series, anything can happen, a fact we’ve known for well over a century. Just ask Tinker, Evers, and Chance about the 1906 White Sox, the Hitless Wonders who pantsed their crosstown rivals despite the Cubs having the highest single-season winning percentage in AL/NL history. Read the rest of this entry »

PHOENIX — There are a lot of things I think about more in October than I do in July — Halloween! Hay rides! — but none more so than inevitability. Ideas can have a season, and destiny is the stuff of fall. We look at a series, analyze the players and teams, and look for the sure thing. We know that we’re supposed to acknowledge the randomness of playoff baseball; anything can happen in a short series, after all. But c’mon. C’mon! You thought the Dodgers were going to advance to the NLCS. You weren’t sure — you’re a good nerd — but it felt like they would. It seemed like they should. They won 100 games this season to the Diamondbacks’ 84. They have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman powering a potent offense. Sure their starters were hurt, but their bullpen was good. They got a bye and a rest and their first two games at home.

And then a funny thing happened: they got beat. They didn’t just lose the NLDS; the Diamondbacks won it, and rather emphatically. When something like that happens, when results run counter to our expectations, we start to look to the underdogs for their own signs of providence. It can all be very flattening, which is a shame, because the plays and players that make up a game deserve to be understood for what they are: not a script, but bits of dynamism unleashed on 48,175 screaming fans. So before we look ahead to the NLCS or back at the Dodgers’ season that was, below are a few such moments and people from Game 3.

The Third Inning
I don’t envy managers their jobs in the postseason. The stakes are unbelievably high, never more so than when you’re staring down potential elimination. You have to manage for today, tomorrow be damned – heck, there might not be a tomorrow. Your task, if you’re Dave Roberts, is to forget about the existence of Clayton Kershaw, Game 4 starter, and spend whatever bullpen bullets you need to in order to survive. Only how could you do that when Clayton Kershaw, Game 1 starter, left such an impression? You might need those bullets. So you watch Lance Lynn give up a leadoff home run to Geraldo Perdomo, who hit six all season. And then after a Corbin Carroll groundout, you watch as Ketel Marte adds another — this one more emphatic at 107.9 mph off the bat. Still you wait. But then Tommy Pham grounds out; Lynn is only at 38 pitches, and the D-backs have a raft of righties stretching all the way to Alek Thomas coming up. You’re almost out of it!

Yeah, about that.

And then, well.

This was the first time in postseason history that a team hit four home runs in an inning, and depending on how generous you’re feeling, Gabriel Moreno did his part twice. (When Moreno’s real-deal home run left the yard, the Chase Field crowd, which had already sung several choruses of “BEAT L.A.,” lost its collective mind. Discrete words couldn’t be mustered; all I could hear from the press box was a roar.) Caleb Ferguson came in to relieve Lynn, but the damage had been done.

The timing of Lynn’s exit deserves some scrutiny. Before Christian Walker’s laser to left field, as the count went to 1-1, the Dodgers bullpen began to stir, but in a wave-your-arms-around-to-loosen-them-up sort of way.

Two pitches into Moreno’s at-bat, the broadcast noted that Ferguson was up and actually throwing. After the game, Roberts said, “You’ve got two outs and a low-pitch count, and you figure that this run of right-handed hitters, you’ve got to be able to navigate it somewhat with two outs, nobody on base. Then two homers later you’re down 4-0. I had some guys ready. Obviously I can’t predict the future. I try not to be reactionary and get ahead of things. I just can’t predict the future. The way he was throwing the baseball, I didn’t expect that.”

But perhaps he should have. Lynn led baseball in home runs allowed this year with 44, a total that represents the sixth-most allowed in a single season in major league history. All those past long balls don’t guarantee future ones, but if you were going to pick a way for Lynn to join the Dodgers’ parade of ineffective Division Series starters — including his performance, LA’s starting trio mustered a disastrous 25.07 ERA across a mere 4.2 innings of work — a home run or two seemed a likely culprit.

In the bottom of the sixth, after Michael Grove had thrown an inning and Alex Vesia was busy dispatching Arizona’s 7-8-9 hitters, the broadcast noted the perhaps curious absence of Ryan Pepiot. Lauren Shehadi offered that Roberts had told her, “Listen, I have to manage this like there are two more games after it. Pepiot, he’s a bulk guy, we’ve seen it all season long, and if I’m going to get through this series, I need to think past Game 3.”

Roberts’ line of thinking about two outs and right-handed hitters and the bases being empty is logical enough when it comes to Lynn. He’s right, too, that a bulk guy might be useful as a backstop to Kershaw, who even when he’s not having a start like he did in Game 1 isn’t exactly going eight strong these days. But both answers suggest a lack of urgency, too great an emphasis on the cares of later and not enough on the here and oh-crap-we’re-about-to-go-home now. Get a guy up! Bring him in! Consider throwing your bulk dude! Worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. In the third inning, a stoppable force met an extremely moveable object, and unfortunately for the Dodgers, Lynn budged. Roberts probably should have done the same.

The Dodgers Offense
We’ve all had bad days at work. The coffee machine breaks, your presentation goes badly, someone’s on a stinky food kick. Sometimes, though, those bad stretches linger. During the regular season, the Dodgers had the third-best wRC+ in the majors. They hit the second-most home runs and had the second-highest wOBA. They scored just 41 fewer runs than the Braves, and the Braves had an historically good offense. Betts and Freeman were simply marvelous.

Then the calendar flipped to October, and suddenly there was printer toner everywhere. By now you’ve probably heard that Betts and Freeman combined to go just 1-for-21 this postseason. All that pair of MVP candidates could muster was an infield single off the bat of Freeman in Game 2. And they weren’t alone. As a unit, the Dodgers hit .177/.248/.250, “good” for a 40 wRC+; they managed four extra-base hits the entire series. They were outscored 19–6 and never led in the series. J.D. Martinez went 0-for-4 in Game 3. A reshuffled Game 3 lineup resulted in Austin Barnes pinch-hitting against Andrew Saalfrank with the bases loaded and two outs in the seventh rather than David Peralta standing in against a lefty. Barnes swung at a first-pitch sinker and grounded out; it was the last time Los Angeles had a runner in scoring position. After Max Muncy struck out in the ninth, Will Smith managed a single, but a pair of flyouts ended the Dodgers’ season, as the Diamondbacks’ bobcat mascot danced around in a red speedo with “BEAT LA” emblazoned on the butt and the players whooped.

It was a bad night at work, and one of the cruel things about baseball is that where the rest of us muddle through lousy meetings and frustrating expense reports in the hopes of getting a break, the best cure for a down game is simply more time at the office. Even when the copy machine is jammed.

The Young Snakes in the NLDS
Perhaps nothing is better for defying expectations than the emergence of young stars. The likes of Carroll and Moreno (who had to leave the game early but is fine) have bolstered the Diamondbacks all season, and the playoffs are no exception:

As MLB.com’s Sarah Langs pointed out, the Diamondbacks are the third team in postseason history with four players age 23 or younger with a home run in a single postseason, joining the 2020 Braves quartet of Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Cristian Pache and the 2015 Cubs core of Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, and Javier Báez.

Brandon Pfaadt
It would be easy to forget Brandon Pfaadt in all of this. A Wild Card sweep and the quirks of when the National League’s off-days fell meant the Diamondbacks were set up to throw Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen twice each in the NLDS. They still needed a Game 3 starter, however, and that job fell to Pfaadt. His initial foray into postseason pitching didn’t go great: seven hits and three earned runs (including a two-run home run) in just 2.2 innings of work in his Wild Card start versus the Brewers. The first three hitters he faced that night reached; he leaned too heavily on his fastball.

His outing Wednesday night went much more smoothly. The rookie needed 17 pitches to retire his first Brewers hitter; in the first inning on Wednesday, a Betts’ groundout required five, fly outs from Freeman and Martinez needed only one apiece, and boom, one inning down. Though still fastball-heavy, he mixed in more changeups along with a few breaking balls, presenting the more varied arsenal that he and the Diamondbacks staff had identified earlier in the week as so important.

It wasn’t all good. Of the 12 balls the Dodgers put in play, six were classified as hard-hit by Statcast, and the double in the fifth that ended his night would have been a home run in 28 other ballparks. He was bolstered by more good bullpen work; though they allowed two runs, the Snakes ‘pen, which had caused so much consternation this season and inspired the deadline trade for Paul Sewald, posted a 3.27 ERA and 2.44 FIP during the DS. But it was a marked improvement, and one the Diamondbacks have to find encouraging. After all, as Lovullo put it to the media on Tuesday, you need more than two pitchers to get through the postseason, and Arizona isn’t done yet.