Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. It’s an incredible time to be a baseball fan, particularly one who isn’t tied to a single team or division. There are three tight division races, and both wild cards hold some intrigue. Some of the brightest stars of the game are playing incredibly well right now. The A’s are on a kelly-green-clad respectability streak that is both improbable and delightful. The White Sox are fun to watch for their ever-evolving pursuit of futility (more on that below). There’s no time for August doldrums when the games are this exciting. So no more talking vaguely about what a great week this was; let’s get right to it. And thanks, as always, to ESPN’s Zach Lowe for the format I’m borrowing here.
1. Barry Would Never
Perhaps the least likely story of the season, on an individual level, is Tyler Fitzgerald, who has turned into one of the great offensive forces in the game overnight. After putting up average offensive numbers as he climbed through the minors across four seasons plus the lost COVID year, he has established an everyday role on the Giants and unexpectedly caught fire this season. He’s now hitting home runs faster than I can count and getting his name in Giants history next to Barry Bonds for his power feats. (As an aside, this clip of Bonds and Greg Maddux discussing an old at-bat is amazing, and I highly recommend it.) Read the rest of this entry »
Thomas White is having an impressive first full professional season. Drafted 35th overall last year by the Miami Marlins out of Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts, the 19-year-old left-hander has a 2.84 ERA, a 2.99 FIP, and a 29.6% strikeout rate over 76 innings between Low-A Jupiter and High-A Beloit. His late-May promotion to the higher of those two levels came for a simple reason. As our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen explained when assigning him a 45+ in early June, White’s stuff was simply too good for the Florida State League.
I had an opportunity to talk to the promising youngster when Beloit played at West Michigan earlier this week, and one of the things I made it a point to learn about was the mindset that augments his arsenal. I began by asking him how much of a role analytics are playing in his development.
“I’m starting to learn more about the actual numbers and how all that stuff works,” White told me. “At the end of the day, I like to just go out and get outs — I’ve never been a big tech guy — but I definitely know a lot more about my pitches now that I have access to all the data. So, I’m still learning, and I want to learn, but the best measurement for me is how hitters react to them.”
The pitches that hitters are reacting to include a four-seam fastball that has been averaging, according to White, 95.6 mph and 17.5 inches of vertical ride. He is also throwing a two-seam changeup and a sweeper-slider. Currently in the works, but not yet part of his repertoire, is “a shorter gyro pitch,” either a cutter or a hard slider. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
Last week, I explained how players can still change teams even as trades are no longer allowed. Now that we’re a week-plus into August, I’d like to run down the list of players who could be placed on irrevocable waivers before the month ends, which is the latest that a team can claim them and still have them be eligible for the playoffs. Players placed on waivers are first offered to the worst team in the league, then to the other clubs in ascending order all the way up to the one with the best record at the time of the waiver placement.
I’ll be focusing on teams with playoff odds below 5%, though contending teams teams could see if a rival wants to bite on an onerous contract. (Spoiler alert: they will not.) As a reminder, when a player is claimed off waivers, it’s a straight claim. The team that loses the player gets nothing more than salary relief, as the new team is responsible for the remainder of the contract. Read the rest of this entry »
Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports; Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
Here’s a little insight into my writing process. When I turn on my computer in the morning, my mind completely devoid of ideas apart from the knowledge that Meg is going to message me in a couple hours asking if I plan on working today, the first thing I do is look at our leaderboards. Maybe just seeing a name will jog something loose, or maybe I’ll learn about someone doing something exceptionally good or bad.
It’s fun to write about the extremities of baseball, and fun to read about them. It’s why we fight over who gets to write about Aaron Judge, or Paul Skenes, or the White Sox. We aim to please.
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
By now, you’re surely aware that the Marlins were busy, to say the least, ahead of last week’s trade deadline. Miami dealt 10 players — Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell, Bryan De La Cruz, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, A.J. Puk, JT Chargois, Huascar Brazobán, and let’s not forget Luis Arraez, who was traded in early May — to teams looking to make the postseason, an admirable goal that the 2024 Marlins do not share. But that doesn’t mean the players who remain with Miami have nothing to play for the rest of the way. President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix is in full evaluation mode, with spots aplenty up for grabs in 2025. That might even include manager Skip Schumaker, who is in his lame duck year and could decide to skip out of town for a job — wait for it — skippering a better team next season.
Since the Marlins are looking ahead to next season, we’ll do the same thing here today. Let’s take stock of the players currently vying for spots on next year’s Opening Day roster.
Position Players
Even before all the trades, the Marlins lineup was anemic, ranking second-worst by wRC+ from the beginning of the season through July 26, the day before Chisholm was traded to the Yankees.
With the team doing so poorly in the aggregate, it’s unsurprising that there have been few individual bright spots. Looking around the diamond, the only positions that look pretty locked in for next year are shortstop, one of the corner infield spots, and one of the corner outfield spots. Xavier Edwards, who has excelled at short since Miami released Tim Anderson at the end of June, is batting .383/.456/.470 (163 wRC+) to go along with 12 stolen bases for the season. Slugger Jake Burger rebounded from a horrid start to put up a 166 wRC+ in July. He’s continued that production so far in August, and he’s currently bouncing between DH, first, and third. Lastly, Jesús Sánchez’s raw power remains tantalizing, but he’s always hovered between 10 points (in either direction) of being league average by wRC+. Still, there’s no reason not to give him more run as long as he’s on the squad.
As for the other spots, well, there are plenty of contenders! The quality of the personnel is up for debate, but the quantity is indisputable. Here are all the position players auditioning for roles on the 2025 roster, either down the stretch or come spring training:
That doesn’t even include any future trade acquisitions or buy-low free agent signings the Marlins could make during the offseason. Either way, they’ll have plenty of position players to choose from next season.
Starting Pitchers
Assuming the Marlins don’t make any more trades between now and Opening Day, this is the most straightforward group. Sandy Alcantara will be about 16 months removed from his Tommy John surgery when the 2025 season begins, so he should be good to go. He’ll definitely be joined by Jesús Luzardo, with only a small handful of arms fighting for the final three rotation spots, which will become two spots once Eury Pérez returns from his own Tommy John surgery later in the year.
The four big names in contention are healthy hurlers Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera, as well as the currently injured Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers. Weathers is out with a finger strain that will certainly be cleared up by next season, but he only just began playing catch late last month, leaving his status for the rest of this season unclear. Garrett’s flexor strain is an even scarier injury, but he should be OK for 2025 if his arm doesn’t require any surgical intervention.
With Alcantara’s innings perhaps being managed coming off of surgery, it’s possible that the Marlins could go with a six-man rotation. If that’s what they decide to do, recent trade acquisitions Adam Mazur and Robby Snelling, as well as Darren McCaughan, likely would be the running for that sixth spot.
Relief Pitchers
As with any team, the bullpen is going to have the most players contending for spots on next year’s roster. If they are still members of the organization on Opening Day, Calvin Faucher, Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi, and Declan Cronin will have their spots locked in, but considering all four were bandied about as trade options prior to the deadline, I’d be surprised if all of them started spring training as members of Marlins.
Beyond those four, there’s an absolute cavalry of arms currently on the big-league roster, out hurt, or down on the farm. A loser of the rotation battle could find himself in the bullpen as well, leaving perhaps dozens of pitchers competing for a precious few spots once the team adds to the roster via further non-roster invites, waiver claims, or, yes, trades. In looking for the next Scott — basically, a guy who is acquired for relatively little and then turns into a Dude — Bendix surely will cast a wide net.
In looking ahead to 2025, there are a couple of key caveats to keep in mind. As mentioned before, there will be other trades; several of the players I listed above will be on other teams come February. There will also, of course, be injuries, opening even more spots.
Lastly, there will be a lot of procedural moves removing players from contention for roster spots before the offseason even begins in earnest. The 60-day IL is not usable during the offseason, and the Marlins currently have seven players on it. That means that between now and the onset of the offseason, Miami will have to free up seven 40-man spots, and because the team has no pending free agents to clear space, the organization will have to designate seven players for assignment. Some of those players will clear waivers and be invited to spring training with a chance to earn their spots back, but there will also be some who get claimed by other clubs or are outrighted to the minors and then exercise their right to free agency — which is an option for outrighted players with three-plus years of service time, those who have been outrighted previously, or both. All of this is to say that for as much as the Marlins’ roster has changed from Opening Day to now, there will be even more roster turnover between now and the start of the 2025 season.
Another year, another frenetic trade deadline. This year’s bonanza was light on top talent relative to recent years, but it made up for that in volume. With tight races in both leagues and plenty of teams looking to shore up clear weaknesses, it was a seller’s market, particularly when it came to pitching. Now that the dust has settled, I’m here to hand out some judgment.
These are going to be inherently subjective, but that doesn’t mean I don’t put a little rigor into my system. I’m focusing on two things here when I look at individual teams. First, and more important: Did a team’s moves match up with its needs? This is easy to gauge, and since it’s the whole point of the deadline, it carries the most wait. Second: How’d teams do on the trades they made? I think this part is inherently more subjective – there’s no unified prospect ranking or database where we can see how traded players will do the rest of the season, and we’re working with less information than teams have. That doesn’t mean I’m not crediting teams for trades I like or docking them for moves I don’t, just that I’m weighting it slightly less than the first category. Let’s dive right in. Read the rest of this entry »
The Pittsburgh Pirates spent part of deadline day sprucing up their offense by acquiring outfielder Bryan De La Cruz from the Miami Marlins and infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Toronto Blue Jays. Neither hitter provides the superstar impact to fully rehabilitate Pittsburgh’s fixer-upper lineup. Instead, they yield an effect similar to tearing out the wood paneling, scraping the popcorn ceilings, and applying a couple coats of paint in a shade called something like Chantilly Cream to zhuzh up the place. Perhaps this offseason, Pirates’ GM Ben Cherington will put in a call to Chip and Joanna Gaines to facilitate a full renovation, but until then, this certainly makes the space the Pirates currently occupy nicer.
De La Cruz and Kiner-Falefa join the Pittsburgh clubhouse amidst a handful of other additions and subtractions over the last few days. The team acquired two lefty relievers in Jalen Beeks and Josh Walker alongside Nick Yorke, a post-hype hitting prospect who is ready to compete for big league playing time, according to Eric Longenhagen’s breakdown of all three acquisitions. Additionally, the Pirates dealt from their starting pitching depth by sendingMartín Pérez to the Padres in exchange for Ronaldys Jimenez, an 18 year-old left-handed pitcher currently in the DSL.
On the whole, Pittsburgh’s deadline activity amounts to a series of one-for-one trades that marginally improve their current situation, without upsetting their long-term construction plans for building Barbie’s Dream Roster in the future. (Or because it’s the Pirates, whatever ownership deems is Kenough.) Read the rest of this entry »
You didn’t really think teams were done swapping relievers after Friday and Saturday, did you? If you thought maybe they were tapped out for late relief help on Sunday and Monday, well, you thought wrong! If your bullpen doesn’t look like there are enough dudes to capture Helm’s Deep, you’re woefully short-armed.
The San Diego Padres acquired LHRP Tanner Scott and RHRP Bryan Hoeing from the Miami Marlins for LHSP Robby Snelling, RHSP Adam Mazur, 3B/2B Graham Pauley, and 3B/SS Jay Beshears
As one of baseball’s elite closers on an expiring contract, Tanner Scott was arguably the best short-term option available among relievers. His walk rate has peeked up a little to the numbers of the bad old days, but his first-strike percentage has stayed firmly in positive territory, which is an important indicator of where walk numbers will settle. Scott is likely to help the Padres in a very tight NL Wild Card race, but he’ll probably be even more important for them in the playoffs if they can get there. In San Diego, he teams up with Robert Suarez to asphyxiate opposing lineups late in the games. As far as elite closers who occasionally walk a few too many batters go, Scott is one of the less stressful of the genre, because he’s so hard to hit against with any authority, giving him a good shot at escaping jams following those free passes.
Bryan Hoeing is a sinker/slider reliever who has never quite clicked, as he’s never really been able to induce many swings-and-misses, nor has he mastered the art of inducing weak groundballs. He strikes me mostly as a depth guy who has plenty of years of club control left, and barring a breakout, he seems destined to be shuffled back and forth between San Diego and Triple-A El Paso a lot over the next few years. This trade is about Scott. Read the rest of this entry »
Maybe the Orioles just like shopping for pitchers in Florida. Days after Baltimore acquired Zach Eflin from Tampa Bay, Ken Rosenthal reported that the team has traded for Marlins left-handed starter Trevor Rogers in exchange for Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. The Orioles have selected the contract of Terrin Vavra, who is running a 112 wRC+ with Triple-A Norfolk this season, to take Norby’s place on the big league roster. (Shortly after this article was filed, Jeff Passan reported that the Orioles have also acquired Eloy Jiménez from the White Sox, while C. Trent Rosecrans reported that Austin Slater is headed from the Reds to the land of Old Bay; Michael Baumann will write up those transactions shortly.)
On its face, this seems like either a great get for Miami, or a sign that the price for starting pitching is sky high. Last April, Rogers suffered a biceps strain that ended his season after just four starts. This season, he’s stayed healthy and thrown 105.1 innings, but the results haven’t exactly been there. Following his breakout rookie campaign in 2021, Rogers is 7-22 with a 4.92 ERA and 4.36 FIP. This season, those figures are 4.53 and 4.42. Read the rest of this entry »
This is a trade article, as the Diamondbacks acquired Josh Bell from the Marlins today in exchange for cash considerations. It’s also an injury article, sadly. Christian Walker departed last night’s D-backs/Nationals game with an oblique injury, and was due for an MRI this morning. The results haven’t been made public yet, but trading for Bell is a statement in and of itself, so let’s walk through the trade and injury in combination.
Walker has quietly been the second-best first baseman in the game over the past three years. I don’t mean that hyperbolically; he’s second only to Freddie Freeman in WAR over that time period. He’s done it with good offense and outrageous, comically good first base defense. I don’t think I’m selling this enough. Per Statcast, Walker has been 38 outs above average over that time period. Carlos Santana is second… with 17. DRS scores it 33-20 in Walker’s favor, with Matt Olson at 21. However you look at it, Walker is head and shoulders above everyone else at the position. Last night, he made a standard-for-him, spectacular-for-most play on a foul ball:
After that inning, he came back to the dugout and departed the game. Now we and the Diamondbacks can only wait to hear the injury news. Read the rest of this entry »
