Matt Vierling has been swinging a hot bat with the Detroit Tigers. Over his last 11 games, the 27-year-old third baseman/outfielder is 16-for-41 with four doubles, a triple, four home runs, and 13 RBIs. His slash line over the span is .390/.435/.829 bringing his seasonal mark to a solid .292/.324/.509. While by no means an offensive force, he has nonetheless been an integral part of the lineup. Since being acquired by Detroit from Philadelphia prior to last season as part of the five-player Gregory Soto swap. Vierling has the second-most hits (175) on the team, and a respectable 106 wRC+.

Defensive versatility adds to Vierling’s value — his big-league ledger includes games at 3B, 2B, CF, RF, and LF — and there is a chance that another non-DH position could eventually be added to the list. Given the right circumstances, he might even pitch. It would be familiar territory. Vierling thrived on the mound as a prep, then was a two-way player at the University of Notre Dame from 2016-2018.

A Perfect Game showcase in Minneapolis is a standout memory for the St. Louis, Missouri native. Vierling recalls Carson Kelly’s brother, Parker, being one of his teammates, while Ke’Bryan Hayes and Josh Naylor — “I pitched against him if I remember correctly” — were among his notable opponents. Playing well against that type of talent garnered him attention from colleges and professional scouts alike, and while his bat showed promise, it was the arm that stood out the most. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

The Mets entered this season caught in the middle of contending and rebuilding, and that was by design. Their strategy during the offseason was to assemble veteran players on short-term contracts who could either help the team make a wild-card push if things went well or flip them at the deadline if the club floundered. And, oh boy, floundered is putting it mildly. After sitting a game above .500 at the end of April, the Mets have posted an abysmal 8-19 (.296) record in May. I didn’t expect to be declaring them as hard sellers on May 31, but that’s pretty much their only viable option at this point unless they turn things around quickly. Shortstop Francisco Lindor acknowledged as much after Wednesday night’s game.

“The front office is going to make decisions no matter what. Whether it’s to add or subtract, whether it’s to focus on the next season or focus on August and September, they’ve got to make decisions,” Lindor said. “We don’t have 100-plus games for that moment, but we do have time to make sure we are above water. I’ve always said stay above the water. Before the All-Star break and before the trade deadline, you’ve got to stay above the water. You can’t have the water be nose deep. I’m not a good swimmer. We’ve got to make sure — we’ve got to find ways to get the water to at least our shoulders because [otherwise] that’s when the decisions come in, [and] it’s the one we don’t want.”

If, indeed, the verdict from the front office is not the one Lindor wants, these are some of the players the Mets could trade away by the July 30 deadline.

The Shiniest Rental

Pete Alonso is more Mercedes-Benz than Rolls-Royce these days, as I’m pretty convinced his best days are already behind him at age 29. He has a 121 wRC+ since the beginning of last season, down from 137 he posted over his first four years. A righty first base-only is a risky proposition in free agency, and his lack of positional flexibility will dampen his trade value as well. He’s undoubtedly an impact bat who lengthens any lineup, and despite his dip in production, he’s still one of the game’s great home run hitters. The thing is, he’s no longer in that upper echelon of dangerous, all-around hitters.

For that reason, along with the fact that he’s on an expiring contract, the Mets shouldn’t expect a package of multiple top prospects for him. I think he’ll get a return closer to the one the Orioles got for Trey Mancini two deadlines ago. The Mets could, of course, make a trade more enticing by paying down some of Alonso’s salary. As it stands, whichever team acquires him will have to pay about $6.8 million for the remainder of the season.

Further complicating things is that the best contenders all have fairly capable first basemen. Every team currently in playoff a position is getting at least league-average offensive production from that position. From my vantage point, Alonso would fit best with the Mariners or Rays, teams that both lack power production and are not getting much from their DHs at the moment: Entering play Thursday, Seattle’s DH wRC+ was of 79; Tampa Bay’s was 85.

Another factor to consider: The Mets may decide that any potential trade return would be less valuable to them than the draft pick compensation they’d receive if Alonso were to decline their qualifying offer. This seems unlikely, though, because the Mets cleared the last luxury tax line last year, so the pick they’d get if Alonso walks in free agency would come after the fourth round of the 2025 draft. If the Mets can’t get a prospect or two worth more than a fourth-round pick for Alonso, they should hold onto him and use those extra two months to work out an extension or try to re-sign him after the season.

Everyone Needs Pitching

The Mets were smart to load up on rental pitching in hopes that those hurlers would bounce back enough to either (a) help lead the Mets to the playoffs or (b) be worth something to someone else in a trade. So far, pretty good results there!

Luis Severino (on a one-year deal worth $13 million) still isn’t dominating as he was back in his peak years of 2017 and 2018, with his strikeout rate up only a point-and-a-half from his horrendous final act with the Yankees last year. But his newfound sinker — now representing 19% of his pitches, per Statcast (3% last year) — has served to deaden the contact against him considerably, with the average exit velocity he’s allowing down 3 mph; his groundball rate is up nearly nine points. The lack of swing-and-miss, and his corresponding reliance on contact, makes him more of a mid-rotation arm than a frontline starter, but he’d clearly be an upgrade for just about any team looking for starting pitching.

Sean Manaea is in a more complicated situation, as his two-year, $28 million contract allows him to opt out after this season. It’s certainly trending that way with a 3.16 ERA (3.46 FIP, 4.20 xERA) in 10 starts, making it an almost certainty that he’ll test free agency this offseason so long as he stays healthy. But that’s a double-edged sword: Teams may be scared to acquire him in the event that he gets hurt or underperforms and they’re saddled with his $13.5 million salary for 2025, and the Mets may market him as a player with over a year of club control left and ask for a more valuable return as a result.

Throwing Darts

I don’t think any of these players would return much in a trade, but considering the Mets acquired a guy who’s now a top-100 prospect for Tommy Pham at last year’s deadline, it’s always worth crossing your fingers and hoping that your pro scouting department comes back with under-the-radar names that you can add to the organization:

• Putting J.D. Martinez in this section feels a little rude given his pedigree, but he’s a DH-only who’s popped just four homers in 30 games (including the go-ahead blast in last night’s 3-2 win over the Diamondbacks) and is striking out a third of the time. The same factors that caused Martinez to sign at the very end of spring training will work against his trade value, too.

• Harrison Bader has played like an ideal bottom-of-the-order bat, with an above-average wRC+, and he actually has reverse splits this year that belie his career norms. As usual, he’s done his best work in the field, with 2 DRS and 4 OAA in center. At absolute minimum, he’d be a perfect fourth outfielder for a contender.

• Adam Ottavino has hit a rough patch, with his ERA soaring from 2.95 to 5.48 over the course of just four appearances in which he allowed seven runs across three innings. Still, he’s struck out opponents at his highest rate since his breakout 2018 season, and his FIP (3.55) and xERA (3.07) portend better results to come.

• Jose Quintana isn’t the contact-suppression king he was last year; he’s already allowed nine homers in 58.2 innings after surrendering just five in 75.2 innings last season. But the guy takes the ball every fifth day, and there’ll be a team willing to give up a lottery-ticket prospect for him, especially if the Mets pay down some of his $4 million-plus that he’ll be owed after the deadline.

• Omar Narváez and Tomás Nido haven’t hit well, and one of them will be DFA’d well before the trade deadline, whenever Francisco Alvarez comes back. The other could, I suppose, be moved in July, though catchers are rarely moved at the deadline.

Cross Them Off The List

Not every rental can always be traded, of course, no matter how extensive the rebuild is. Brooks Raley would’ve been a hot commodity at the deadline, but he’ll be out until sometime next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery this week.

The Mets also have long-term contracts for Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz, and Jeff McNeil on the books, but I’d be extremely surprised if any of them are moved. All four are underperforming (and Díaz is currently on the IL with a shoulder impingement), though I still think Lindor, Nimmo, and Díaz can be key parts of the next good Mets team.

Even if the initial reaction to the trades are underwhelming — rentals just don’t return all that much — this should be a formative deadline for the Mets. I don’t expect them to get a Luisangel Acuña– or Drew Gilbert-level prospect, nor do I see their moves signaling a hard reset for 2025 or an expansive rebuild. But as David Stearns and Steve Cohen look to recalibrate and lay a foundation for the future, they’re certainly not going to just sit on their hands and hold onto anybody if the right deal is there.

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Mets. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

What’s wrong with Edwin Díaz? In a single GIF, this is what’s wrong with Edwin Díaz:

I don’t want to tell him how to pitch, because he’s Edwin Díaz and I’m an anonymous person on the internet. But putting a slider right in Josh Bell’s nitro zone is not a great way to approach a high-leverage at-bat. Bell put a good swing on it, which was hardly a given, but Díaz put himself into that situation and paid the price for it.

On a superficial level, there’s not a lot of uncertainty over what’s wrong. During the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Díaz tore his patellar tendon, and then he missed the entirety of the season recovering from surgery that repaired that tendon. He’s back on the mound, but he’s clearly not the same pitcher that he was in his dominant 2022 season.
Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. After taking a week off to recharge and travel, I was itching to watch some baseball this week, and the sport delivered. After spending last week in New York, I had the city on my mind, and the Mets delivered with some exciting series against the Braves and Phillies. There was good rivalry action out west, too, with the Dodgers and Giants squaring off. And of course, there’s that classic rivalry, Tommy Pham against the concept of ever taking a single play off. As always, thanks to Zach Lowe for the inspiration for this series. Let’s get right into it.

1. Max Effort Every Time

Tommy Pham is my favorite baseball player. To be clear, I don’t think he’s the best baseball player. I’m not sure that I, personally, would want him as a teammate, even. He’s too intense for my laid back view of the world. But his maniacal drive is absolutely delightful to watch, and it’s particularly delightful now that he’s on a team that is absolutely not competing for a playoff spot this year.
Read the rest of this entry »

I like to amuse myself by imagining a scenario in which Brad Pitt’s Billy Beane has to replace a departing Juan Soto. Now, if Moneyball came out in the 2020s, Soto would’ve been traded years ago and Jonah Hill’s Peter Brand would be heroically figuring out how to procure a block of taxpayer-funded stadium-adjacent condos for Steve, the cheapskate owner. But it’s my imagination, so it doesn’t have to be that bleak.

This is a kind of reverse-Six Million Dollar Man scenario: “We have to rebuild him; we don’t have the money.” Soto doesn’t provide any special value in the field or on the bases; even the cheapest team in the league can find an unremarkable defensive corner outfielder who steals 10 bases a year. The tricky thing about finding a poor man’s Soto is replacing his ability to get on base.

Guys who run a .400 OBP, or a walk rate in the high teens, are rare but not unique. Especially if you exclude those high-OBP guys who also bat near .300 and have 30-plus home run power, the tools that price the imaginary A’s out of Soto’s market. (Or Bryce Harper’s or Aaron Judge’s or Kyle Tucker’s.) Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

Matt Olson’s streak of consecutive games played is expected to hit 500 on Saturday against the Padres, but he’s far from the only iron man in Atlanta this season. Third baseman Austin Riley, center fielder Michael Harris II, right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., and designated hitter Marcell Ozuna have started every Braves game at their respective positions, and Orlando Arcia has started 36 of 37 games at shortstop. Second baseman Ozzie Albies would’ve been in the Never Takes A Day Off club, too, if he hadn’t missed eight games with a broken toe — yes, only eight games.

All told, except for catcher and left field (where Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall platoon), the remaining seven positions have had 259 starting opportunities (seven positions times 37 games), with only nine of them going to backups: six for Luis Guillorme (five at second and one at shortstop) and three for David Fletcher at second base. But that lack of playing time hasn’t stopped the Braves from shuffling players into and out of the two bench spots not occupied by one of the two left fielders and backup catcher Chadwick Tromp. (Starting catcher Sean Murphy has not played since Opening Day, when he strained his oblique; while Travis d’Arnaud, an All-Star catcher in his own right, has started 24 games behind the dish.)

Atlanta signed Guillorme to a $1.1 million contract in the offseason, a move that seemed to assure him a spot for the entirety of the season, even though he didn’t fit the roster perfectly. (Guillorme doesn’t have the speed to be a pinch-running threat, for example.) With all those bulletproof starters, the Braves didn’t really need him to do much of anything; he’d be there in case of an emergency because he could play any of the four infield positions. However, it turns out the Braves really didn’t need him, as Guillorme is now a member of the Angels. Outfielder Forrest Wall, who occupied the last bench spot on Opening Day (along with Guillorme, Duvall, and d’Arnaud), is now back in Triple-A.

In all, the two bench spots that don’t belong to a catcher or a left fielder have been occupied by five players this season: Wall, Guillorme, Fletcher, Luke Williams, and Zack Short, who was acquired from the Red Sox ahead of the Guillorme trade. Currently, the two rotating members of the ghost bench are Short and Williams. Those five have combined for just 34 plate appearances across 21 games, with Atlanta sticking to its brand of having its everyday players be exactly that.

Of course, after I filed this column, the Braves lifted Riley from last night’s 4-3 loss to the Mets with what Atlanta announced was “left side tightness.” As of now, it’s unclear whether Riley will be in the lineup tonight against the Cubs, but the Braves said his exit was precautionary, so the discomfort — for now it feels too early to call it an injury — doesn’t seem to be serious.

3B Austin Riley was removed from tonight’s game as a precaution with left side tightness.

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 13, 2024

During this era of load management, teams stress the importance of having a deep bench, but that just doesn’t seem to be necessary for the Braves. Indeed, one of the main reasons the Braves have been so good these last few years is their most talented position players have also been their most durable.

Christian Scott Looks Legit

Christian Scott has acclimated himself quite nicely to the big leagues in his first two starts with the Mets. In his debut on May 4, he pitched six innings of one-run ball against the Rays. He followed that up with eight strikeouts in Saturday’s quality start against the aforementioned tough and durable Braves lineup. The Mets lost both starts, though, providing Scott with one run of support in each game.

Scott, who entered the season ranked no. 98 on our Top 100 Prospects list, was heralded coming up through the minors for having a fastball that — as Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin wrote — “jumps on hitters,” though that’s been his least impressive pitch thus far. He has demonstrated the promise of the pitch getting opponents to whiff on 37% of their swings against it, but it has been inconsistent, as batters have also piled up nine hits off the heater, including a home run. That actually portends well for Scott since it shows that he can get by on more than just his signature pitch. He also has two devastating breaking balls that, along with his fastball, could make him a capable member of the next great Mets rotation.

Weekend Wrap Up

Let’s run through some things that stood out to me this weekend:

• Tyler Glasnow and Michael King had a pitcher’s duel for the ages on Friday. Each starter threw seven innings: Glasnow allowed just one run on one hit (a solo homer to Luis Campusano) and struck out 10; King didn’t give up a run and struck out 11, surrendering just two hits. The homer kept the game at 1-0 until the top of the eighth, when Yuki Matsui coughed up the lead on a Freddie Freeman sac fly. Ultimately, Luis Arraez delivered the victory with a walk-off hit in his first home game with the Padres; he’s helped to lengthen the lineup in a big way, mostly as San Diego’s DH.

• Jo Adell kept his hot streak going over the weekend. His Saturday homer was his third in four games, and his wRC+ is now 134. With Mike Trout on the shelf and Taylor Ward scuffling, Adell is the only Angel I’d be particularly afraid to pitch to right now, and yet he remains in the seventh spot in the lineup. That rigidity for the sake of comfort feels unwise.

• We’ll have more on Paul Skenes’ debut later on today, but my general take on his outing is that he looked good! Surprising for the top pitching prospect in the sport, I know. The command definitely came and went, but the stuff looked like it can get anybody out, and I think his splinker will prove to be his best pitch, especially at neutralizing lefties. Skenes allowed three runs over four-plus innings, though two of those runs came in after he was removed with runners on first and third and nobody out in the fifth. He finished with six hits, including a home run to Nico Hoerner, two walks, and seven strikeouts.

As hyped and box-score-filling as Skenes’ outing was, it was far from the most interesting thing about that game. Once Skenes departed, the Pirates issued six (!!!) bases-loaded walks in the fifth inning, with a long rain delay in the middle of all the chaos. Despite that ignominious relief-pitching performance, the Pirates still won, 10-9, thanks to five homers.

Blade Tidwell has a five-pitch arsenal and a future on a big-league mound. Two years removed from being drafted 52nd-overall out of the University of Tennessee, the 22-year-old right-hander ranks among the top prospects in the New York Mets organization. “An old school power pitcher” in the words of our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, Tidwell has made six appearances for the Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies this year and has a 2.59 ERA, a 1.85 FIP, and 38 strikeouts in 31-and-a-third innings.

He’s developed a good understanding of his pitch metrics, a process that began when he was playing with Team USA following his 2021 freshman season at UT. Tidwell “started studying analytics” on his own, and would often discuss the subject with fellow Mets prospect Drew Gilbert, his roommate that summer. He subsequently “didn’t dabble too much into it” during his sophomore year — the Columbia, Tennessee native played just two collegiate seasons due to the pandemic — but that changed after he signed a professional contract. There was a lot more to learn… and to improve upon.

His four-seamer, which sits 94-96 mph and tops out at 98, has grown meaningfully since his amateur days. The 6-foot-4 righty got “around 14-15 inches” of ride in college, and now he gets “around 19 inches on a good day.”

Janzen Blade Tidwell — his father picked his middle name, his mother his first name — also gets good movement on his sweeper. Moreover, he can massage the movement by upping or lowing velocity. Read the rest of this entry »

On April 28, the Mets walked off the Cardinals in the 11th inning. It was a huge moment, made even bigger because the embattled Mark Vientos delivered the knockout blow in just his second big league game after starting the season in the minors. That night, John DeMarsico, director of SNY’s Mets broadcasts, posted a video of the play that was shot from inside the production truck. It’s something he does occasionally, though this video had a twist: the audio from the triumphant final scene of Moneyball was overlaid on the broadcast.

Walk-Off: A behind-the-scenes featurette #Baseballiscinema pic.twitter.com/ZrgRleH9SB

— John DeMarsico (@JohnDeMarsico) April 29, 2024

DeMarsico is renowned for adding cinematic flourishes to SNY’s broadcasts, but when I watched this particular video — hearing dramatic music play as the voices in the truck worked together to decide what shot should come next — I was struck by the way DeMarsico is entrusted with telling the story of the game. SNY’s team is universally acknowledged to be one of the best in the business. At any given moment, DeMarsico can choose multiple shots that would look great and tell the viewer what is going on, but his job is bigger than that. His job is to use those images to craft a narrative. Read the rest of this entry »

Spending money can be a lot of fun, but spending someone else’s money is even better. And that’s exactly what we’re doing today!

About a month into the season is typically when I look at some of the players who are prime extension candidates and the possible deals they might work out with their teams. As usual, the contracts here are not necessarily what I would offer the players or what they will get, but what the mean, cold-hearted projections think would amount to a fair agreement. For each player, I’ve included their ZiPS projections with the latest model updates.

Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (Nine years, $192 million)

It’s going to be a long time until Elly De La Cruz is eligible for free agency, but if the Reds wish to signal to the fans that the best players they develop will be in Cincinnati for longer than their middle arbitration years, ownership is going to have to make a real commitment to one of them at some point. And who is a better option than De La Cruz? I would have said Matt McLain a few months ago, but his major shoulder surgery makes it a risky time for both team and player to come to a meeting of the minds on a future dollar figure. De La Cruz still has issues making contact, but his plate discipline has continued to improve since his debut. He’s drawing a lot more walks this year and he’s actually been better than the average major leaguer at not chasing pitches. And with better plate discipline should come more power because a greater percentage of his swings will come against pitches that he can actually drive.

As you can see below, he wouldn’t need to exceed his 50th percentile projections for home runs by much to secure a 40/40 season. In fact, after hitting his eighth home run of the year Monday night, De La Cruz is currently on pace for 45 homers and an absurd 101 steals this season — and he still has a lot of polishing left to do. He’s also showing he’s far from a defensive liability at shortstop, even though a healthy McLain is still probably preferable there. This contract buys out some of De La Cruz’s early free agency years and gives him a big wad of guaranteed dough.

Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles (Eight years, $210 million)

If you’ve been following my work for a while now, you surely know I’m an Orioles fan. And like many other Baltimore fans, I remember the moment when I became unhappy with the ownership of the late Peter Angelos. My feelings toward him soured because of how he and the Orioles handled their free agent negotiations with Mike Mussina. After Moose had previously taken a hometown discount, the O’s assumed he would continue to pitch for them at a below-market rate, and as a result, they lowballed him the next time he was eligible for free agency. He declined, leading to the second-best pitcher in team history finishing his career wearing Yankee pinstripes and ensuring that his Hall of Fame plaque wouldn’t have an ornithologically correct bird on the cap.

While I still think the team should lock up Grayson Rodriguez long term, it’s far more urgent< for the O’s to extend Corbin Burnes, given that he hits free agency after the season. No better pitcher will be available this winter, and nobody in the minors anywhere, for any team, is a safe bet to be better than Burnes over the next five or six years. New owner David Rubinstein has said all the right things, and he made a nice gesture when he bought everyone at Pickles a round of drinks, but the best way to show that he’s serious about building a perennial contender is to not let his team’s ace sign elsewhere. Given the O’s have just about nothing in the way of financial obligations, there’s no reason not to extend him. If that means paying more than that figure above, so be it.

Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (Seven years, $151 million)

Let’s be clear, despite his uncharacteristic struggles so far this season, I think Bo Bichette will command more than $151 million, and while the Blue Jays may balk any amount greater than that figure, they should still be willing to pay him whatever it takes to keep him around for the bulk of his career. Because of his position and his consistency (again, his first month of this season notwithstanding), Bichette has emerged as the best scion of a baseball family in Toronto, and time’s running out to extend bounty hunter Boba Chette before he hits free agency after the 2025 campaign. I actually think he’ll age better than ZiPS does, at least offensively. Either way, shortstops get super expensive if you wait until they hit the open market. That means that now’s the time for the Blue Jays to extend him if they’re going to keep him, even if that means going over this projected offer to ensure he doesn’t reach free agency.

Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (Four years, $101 million)

The Astros have been able to let some of their offensive contributors walk in free agency — Springer and Carlos Correa among them — mainly because they’ve had pretty solid replacements coming up at the same time, such as Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jeremy Peña. There’s no similar player on the horizon who can take the place of Alex Bregman. And with Houston already reeling with its pitchers, it would be a lot to ask the front office to fill a gaping hole at third base as well.

Max Fried, Atlanta Braves (Six years, $150 million)

Atlanta has a knack for being able to survive epidemics of pitcher injuries in ways that are fascinating if you’re a fan of the team and maddening if you root for another one. But with Spencer Strider already out for the rest of this season after undergoing internal brace surgery for his damaged elbow, can Atlanta really afford to let Max Fried and Charlie Morton depart this offseason? I like what Reynaldo López has done this season, but you don’t really want to go into 2025 counting on his continued success, Chris Sale’s health, and a full recovery from Strider following his second UCL procedure? The Braves reportedly offered six years, $162 million to Aaron Nola; how could they not make a similar offer to Fried, a similarly valued pitcher who has been a large part of their recent success? Now, all reports I’ve heard suggest Fried’s not keen on discussing an extension during the season, but that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t change his mind if Atlanta gives him a good reason to do so.

Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians (Four years, $80 million)

Since the start of the 2002 season, the Guardians have received 10,109 plate appearances from first basemen not named Jim Thome, Carlos Santana, or Josh Naylor. Those 57 hitters have combined to hit .253/.324/.426 for 7.7 WAR, or about 0.5 WAR per 600 plate appearances. This is a franchise that has struggled to find solid fill-in first basemen, so it’s hard to imagine the Guardians would be able to find an an adequate replacement if Naylor walks after 2026. And this is hardly a blockbuster deal; it’s similar to what Kyle Schwarber got from the Phillies coming off the best season of his career (2.7 WAR in 2021). Naylor’s not a superstar, but he’s in his prime years. That should be enough incentive for the Guards to pay for him to stick around, and so long as the deal is fair, the fact that Josh’s younger brother Bo also plays for Cleveland might make him more inclined to stay.

Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres (Seven years, $95 million)

Jackson Merrill has one of the odder long-term projections according to ZiPS, which expects him to have a long, stable plateau rather than a period of significant growth followed by a steady decline (at least in the years covered below). But ZiPS is increasingly coming around to his reputation as a good bad-ball hitter, and his batting average projections have improved considerably since the winter. Merrill looks to be a solid player, and he’s one the Padres may need toward the end of their long-term deals with infielders Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth.

Pete Alonso, New York Mets (No offer)

Pete Alonso is rightfully a very popular player in New York, and I’ve always had a soft spot for the Polar Bear, both because homers are fun and because ZiPS was in on him very early when he was a prospect (everyone likes looking smart). And with his free agency imminent, this would be a suitable time to extend him on a long-term contract. The problem is, the more I look at the situation, the harder it is for me to think of a scenario in which he and the Mets could come to terms on a deal unless one party was willing to come out of the negotiation feeling very unhappy. ZiPS suggests a four-year, $70 million contract, and I can’t imagine Alonso feeling anything but insulted by an offer like that. I think given Alonso’s place in the organization and the hiccups in the development of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, the Mets would be willing to pay Alonso more than a projection suggests, but I can’t see them offering him Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson money, either. Because the basic fact is that Freeman and Olson are more well-rounded players than Alonso, who has one amazing dimension. Just to illustrate, below Alonso I’ve included the projections for Freeman and Olson over the next six years.

Alonso projects to be slightly worse than them in the short term and then to be similar in the later years, though that’s likely because he is younger than them. Plus, by the end of 2024, the other players’ contracts already will have covered two additional prime seasons from Olson and three from Freeman. I don’t think any pending free agent has a bigger gulf than Alonso does between the perceived value of his past and the expected value of his future, and as such, this has contract boondoggle written all over it, as big as it was with Kris Bryant a couple years ago. I don’t envy the Mets for the decision they have to make with Alonso, because letting him go, trading him, and keeping him all feel like poor options.