Today the Killers list turns the corner — or rather turns to the teams receiving less-than-acceptable production in the outfield corners. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of their roster. Interestingly enough, two of the seven teams below the WAR cutoff for right field also make the list for left field: one because it’s far below, and the other because it’s right on the line. I’m listing the capsules in order of their left field rankings first while noting those two crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 1 deadline, but these are teams to keep an eye upon. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are through July 25, but team won-loss records and Playoff Odds are through July 26. Read the rest of this entry »

Today the Killers take a turn to the left side of the infield. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of a team’s roster. I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the August 1 deadline, and I’m less concerned with the solutions – many of which have more moving parts involved than a single trade — than the problems. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Monday. Read the rest of this entry »

Today, we turn our attention to the second base Killers. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of a team’s roster. I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the August 1 deadline, and I’m less concerned with the solutions – many of which have more moving parts involved than a single trade — than the problems. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Sunday. Read the rest of this entry »

Spencer Strider came up in a conversation I had with Max Scherzer prior to Friday night’s game at Fenway Park. We were talking about the veteran right-hander’s evolution as a pitcher — I’d first interviewed Scherzer in 2010 — and velocity and strikeout rates were predictably among the topics that popped up. Hence the mention of the 24-year-old Atlanta Braves hurler with the high-octane heater and eye-popping 39.7% strikeout rate.

“He’s got a heck of a fastball, for sure,” Scherzer said when I mentioned Strider. “And he’s still developing. One of the things Flash Gordon told me when I was a rookie coming up with the Diamondbacks is that you don’t walk into this league as an ace. His comments were, ‘Guess what? When Pedro and Roger first got in the league, they threw five innings. They were five-and-dive guys. Then they learned how to pitch; they learned how to get guys out multiple times through the order.’ It takes time to learn to be consistent at this level.

“Applying that logic — the wisdom that I heard many, many years ago — Spencer Strider is continuing to get better,” continued Scherzer. “He’s continuing to add stuff to his game while pitching great and striking out a lot of guys out in the process. As long as he stays healthy, he’s got a lot of upside with what he’s going to be able to do with the baseball.”

Strider is 23-8 with a 3.20 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, and 391 strikeouts in 250-and-two-thirds innings. He’s surrendered just 180 hits. The idea that he could become even better is a scary proposition for hitters. My staying as much elicited a strong opinion from the former Cy Young Award winner and seven-time All-Star. Read the rest of this entry »

It was a bad week for the Mets, to say the least. In the midst of a seven-game losing streak that began with a sweep at home by the Blue Jays and continued with a trio of excruciating losses to the Braves in Atlanta, they lost Pete Alonso, likely for at least the remainder of the month, after he was hit on the left wrist. First and foremost, the injury knocked the Mets’ most productive hitter out of the lineup. It also ended whatever hopes Alonso — the major league leader in home runs with 22 — had to reach 60 for the season.

In the second pitch of his first plate appearance on Wednesday night, the 28-year-year old Alonso took a 97-mph fastball from Charlie Morton off his left wrist. He crumpled to the ground and immediately left the game, clearly in pain despite having protective padding on his left hand. An x-ray taken that evening showed that he hadn’t sustained a fracture, leading Alonso to tell reporters, “I feel like I dodged a bullet,” but subsequent CT and MRI scans revealed that he’d suffered a bone bruise and a wrist sprain. On Friday, the Mets placed him on the injured list retroactive to June 8, with the team announcing, “A typical return to play for this type of injury is approximately 3–4 weeks.” That timetable leaves the door open for Alonso to return right at the end of June in a best-case scenario, with early July more likely.

Though Alonso had homered in each of his previous two games, first off the Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson on June 4 and then off the Braves’ Bryce Elder on June 6, and though he trash-talked Elder after what was estimated to be a 448-foot shot, the hit-by-pitch didn’t appear to be intentional and wasn’t interpreted as such by its victim. Alonso had called out, “Throw it again! Throw it again, please!” but the Braves’ rookie didn’t take issue with the taunt, telling reporters, “I mean, if I hit one on the concourse, I might holler, too.” Read the rest of this entry »

Biomechanical Analyst, Baseball Analytics

Location: Citi Field – Queens, New York
Status: Full Time

Summary:
The New York Mets are seeking a Biomechanical Analyst in Baseball Analytics. The Biomechanical Analyst will work in conjunction with the Sports Science department to answer a variety of questions relating to biomechanics and baseball. The analyst will be the primary bridge between Baseball Analytics and the Performance Technology group and will need a strong statistical background as well as some level of prior experience with biomechanical data. Prior experience in baseball is a plus but is not required.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

• Design and implement statistical models to answer a variety of questions relating to biomechanics and baseball
• Work in conjunction with the Sports Science department to integrate biomechanical research into Baseball Analytics models and pipelines
• Interpret data and report conclusions drawn from their analyses to support and improve decisions
• Serve as primary educational resource on biomechanical data within Baseball Analytics as well as a strong statistical modeling presence within Sports Science/Performance Technology
• Effectively communicate statistical concepts and the results of models to both technical and non-technical audiences
• Provide advice on technical requirements for the Data Engineering team, and guidance to the Baseball Systems team on how best to present model results
• Evaluate potential new data sources and technologies to determine their validity and usefulness
• Consistently analyze recent research in analytics and biomechanics that can help improve the modeling work done by the Baseball Analytics department
• Assist with recruiting, hiring, and mentoring new analysts in the Baseball Analytics department

Qualifications:

• At a minimum, BS in statistics or a related field, with post-graduate degrees a plus
• Professional experience in a quantitative position is a plus
• Biomechanics background or experience working with biomechanical data. Sports or baseball-specific experience is a plus
• Prior knowledge of motion capture and other technologies is a strong plus but not required
• Strong background and real-world data applications of a wide variety of statistical techniques. Machine Learning and/or Computer Vision modeling is a plus.
• Strong proficiency in R, Python, or similar, as well as strong proficiency in SQL
• Basic knowledge of data engineering and front-end development is a plus, for the purpose of communicating with those departments
• Strong communication skills
• Ability to work cooperatively with others, and to take control of large-scale projects with little or no daily oversight
• Prior experience in or knowledge of baseball is a plus, but is not required

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the New York Mets.

Across a career in baseball that spanned over 40 years, Roger Craig was at various points a hotshot rookie who helped the Dodgers win their only championship in Brooklyn, the first and best pitcher on an historically awful Mets team, the answer to a trivia question linking the Dodgers and Mets, a well-traveled pitching coach who shaped a championship-winning Tigers staff, and a culture-changing, pennant-winning manager of the Giants. He was particularly beloved within the Giants family for his positive demeanor and the way he shook the franchise out of the doldrums, though it was via his role as a teacher and evangelist of the split-fingered fastball — the pitch of the 1980s, as Sports Illustrated and others often called it — that he left his greatest mark on the game.

Craig didn’t invent the splitter, which owed its lineage to the forkball, a pitch that was popular in the 1940s and ’50s, but he proved exceptionally adept at teaching it to anyone eager to learn, regardless of team. For the pitch, a pitcher splits his index and middle fingers parallel to the seams, as in a forkball grip, but holds the ball further away from the palm, and throws with the arm action of a fastball. The resulting pitch “drops down in front of the batter so fast he don’t know where it’s goin’,” Craig told Playboy in 1988. “To put it in layman’s terms, it’s a fastball that’s also got the extra spin of a curveball.”

Given its sudden drop, the pitch was often mistaken for a spitball, so much so that it was sometimes referred to as “a dry spitter.” It baffled hitters and helped turn journeymen into stars, and stars into superstars. After pioneering reliever Bruce Sutter rode the pitch to the NL Cy Young Award in 1979, pitchers such as Mike Scott, Mark Davis, Orel Hershiser, and Bob Welch either learned the pitch directly from Craig, or from someone Craig taught, and themselves took home Cy Youngs in the 1980s. Jack Morris, Ron Darling, and Dave Stewart won championships with the pitch, as did Hershiser. Years later, the likes of Roger Clemens, David Cone, Curt Schilling, and John Smoltz would find similar success with the pitch, though it eventually fell out of vogue due to a belief that it caused arm problems, an allegation that Craig hotly refuted.

Not that Craig was a hothead. Indeed, he was even-keeled, revered within the game for his positivity. Such traits were reflected in the tributes paid to him after he died on Sunday at the age of 93, after what his family said was a short illness. “We have lost a legendary member of our Giants family.” Giants CEO Larry Baer said in a statement. “Roger was beloved by players, coaches, front-office staff and fans. He was a father figure to many and his optimism and wisdom resulted in some of the most memorable seasons in our history.” Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — It would be an understatement to say that the Mets have had catching issues in recent years as they’ve cycled through aging free agents, but they finally have a homegrown solution at hand in Francisco Álvarez. The 21-year-old Venezuela native entered the season as the game’s top catching prospect, and while he lacked a clear path to playing time, a double whammy of injuries cleared the way. So far Álvarez has impressed while gaining the trust of the pitching staff’s veterans, including Max Scherzer. On Thursday afternoon, the three-time Cy Young winner and the rookie clicked for the former’s best start of the season. 

Scherzer completed seven innings for the second start in a row, and struck out a season-high nine hitters. The effort helped secure a 4-2 win that completed a three-game sweep of the Phillies and pulled the Mets (30-27) to within 3.5 games of the NL East-leading Braves (33-23), the closest they’ve been since May 1.

Leaning on his four-seam fastball more than usual, particularly with two strikes, Scherzer set season highs for whiffs (22) and CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs as a percentage of total pitches, 36%) as well as strikeouts. Fifteen of those whiffs came via his fastball, which generated a 49% CSW%. Afterwards, Scherzer cited his catcher’s game-calling as the key to his performance:

“I thought today, the most important thing was sequencing, I thought we were mixing up what we want to do, he’s great with it. He’s understanding how I think and pitch. 

“When you catch that rhythm, you kind of know how to keep turning through a lineup and how you’re going to face them the first time, the second time, the third time. I had good stuff, but I thought the sequencing was even better.”

Scherzer credited Álvarez with helping him get more comfortable with the PitchCom system, of which he was critical last year while adopting it with reservations. “I want Alvy to call the game, I don’t want to have to override him, I don’t want to have to call a pitch unless I really know it,” he said. “We’re not using any fingers. And that’s a big change for me, it’s so foreign just being on PitchCom. But working with him, we’re in a good rhythm.”

It took the better part of the first inning to establish that rhythm on Thursday, as one of Álvarez’s weaknesses was spotlighted. After yielding a one-out single to Trea Turner, Scherzer walked Bryce Harper, and when he threw a low-and-away fastball to Nick Castellanos on 1-2, Turner led the way on a double steal attempt. Álvarez’s throw sailed to the left of third baseman Brett Baty and into left field as Turner scored on the error; Harper took third, then came home on Castellanos’ sacrifice fly, putting the Mets in a 2-0 hole.

The steals were Álvarez’s 35th and 36th allowed this season, the NL’s third-highest total; he’s thrown out just five baserunners, for a success rate of 12%. By Statcast’s catcher throwing metrics, which control for the distance of the leadoff, runner speed, pitch location, pitcher and batter handedness, and more, Álvarez’s -2 Catcher Stealing Runs is tied for the major’s third-lowest mark. His average pop time of 1.94 seconds places him in the 67th percentile but is notably higher than the occasional sub-1.80 times noted in his prospect report, neutralizing his plus arm at least somewhat.

(So long as we’re peeking at defensive data, it’s worth noting that Álvarez’s blocking and framing have both scored well in the early going via Statcast; he’s one run above average in the former category, and three runs above in the latter. By FanGraphs’ framing data, he’s 4.9 runs above average, good for fourth in the majors, and by the framing-inclusive version of Defensive Runs Saved — which is not used in the calculation of bWAR — his six runs above average is tied for the major league lead.)

Beyond the throwing mishap, Álvarez didn’t have any further troubles behind the plate. Facing old friend Taijuan Walker, the Mets scratched out a run in the third inning on two walks and a Jeff McNeil single, then took the lead in the fourth on Mark Canha’s two-run homer, and added an insurance run in the sixth via Mark Vientos‘ sacrifice fly. Scherzer scattered four additional hits but didn’t walk another batter or allow another run after the first, and the bullpen — Jeff Brigham, Brooks Raley, and Drew Smith — preserved the lead and wrapped up the win.

Álvarez has caught three of Scherzer’s last four starts, a span during which he’s allowed just four runs (three earned) in 25 innings while looking like a future Hall of Famer who’s still got plenty of good innings remaining. That’s a big change from a few weeks ago, after physical woes and an ejection for using a foreign substance limited Scherzer to 6.1 innings in a 33-day span: 

Álvarez has started 32 of the Mets’ first 57 games due to the injuries of Omar Narváez and Tomás Nido, which wasn’t what the team initially planned for the no. 13 prospect on our preseason Top 100 list. He was initially assigned to Triple-A Syracuse, where he played 45 games last year after a 67-game stint at Double-A Binghamton. Álvarez hit a combined .260/.374/.511 between the two stops last year, earning a five-game cup of coffee with the Mets as well as a spot on the postseason roster.

Given the abysmal .217/.264/.306 performance the Mets got from their catchers (mainly Nido and James McCann), and the lack of offense they received from righty designated hitter Darin Ruf, fans clamored for Álvarez to arrive in Queens even sooner than he did. It’s not hard to imagine that heeding those calls could have made the difference in a division race where the 101-win Mets and Braves were separated only by a head-to-head tiebreaker that forced New York to play a Wild Card Series (which it lost) while Atlanta received a first-round bye.

The Mets signed the 31-year-old Narváez to a two-year, $15 million deal this past winter, hoping he could mentor Álvarez while upgrading a perennial weak spot. Since 2018 — when Travis d’Arnaud tore his ulnar collateral ligament early in April — through the end of last season, the team’s catchers hit for just a 76 wRC+, tied for 23rd in the majors, and produced a meager 2.8 WAR, which ranked 25th. Wilson Ramos, whom the team signed to a two-year, $19 million free agent deal in December 2018, accounted for more than half of that WAR (1.5) in ’19 while hitting for a 106 wRC+, the only average-or-better performance by a Mets catcher with at least 120 PA in that five-season span.

Ramos’ 2020 decline prompted the ill-advised signing of McCann to a four-year, $40.6 million deal in December of that year. He netted just 0.9 WAR in the first two seasons of that contract before being traded to the Orioles for a player to be named later (Luis De La Cruz) in December, with the Mets eating $19 million of the $24 million remaining on his deal. McCann was limited to 53 games last year due to a fractured hamate and an oblique strain. That’s how Nido, whose only previous full season on a major league roster since 2017 was in the pandemic-shortened ’20 season, made a career-high 86 starts. He hit a meager .239/.276/.324 (74 wRC+) but was good for 7.2 framing runs by our metric, and six by that of Statcast, with an additional three runs above average in blocking and one in stolen base prevention via the latter source.

Narváez, who hit for just a 71 wRC+ last year but owns a career 101 mark and was worth 2.8 WAR as recently as 2021, was slated to start ahead of Nido, but he played just five games before suffering a medium-to-high-grade strain of his left calf and landing on the 60-day injured list, which led the Mets to summon Álvarez from Syracuse. While team officials had insisted during the spring that if Álvarez was in the majors, he would catch regularly, manager Buck Showalter didn’t seem to be in a hurry to write him into the lineup, telling reporters that the rookie would receive “some” playing time but making clear he was the understudy by saying, “It’s kind of like a backup quarterback that gets drafted out of college. Everybody knows he’s going to be a really good player, but the time he spends as a backup is very valuable too.” 

Álvarez started just two of the first seven games for which he was on the active roster; the Mets lost both while winning the other five, all started by Nido. But whether or not Showalter needed a nudge from above, Álvarez soon began getting more reps. From April 15 to the end of the month, he started nine games to Nido’s seven, though he hit just .194/.216/.278 in 51 plate appearances for April. Nido was even less productive at the plate, however, and after getting just one more start on May 5, he went on the IL with “dry eye syndrome” and an eye-watering .118/.148/.118 (-25) batting line in 55 PA himself. 

Since the beginning of May, Álvarez has started 22 of the team’s 30 games, with Michael Perez and Gary Sánchez each starting two games apiece to give him a breather; both have since departed, with the former back in Syracuse and the latter in San Diego. Nido, who made a late-inning cameo after being activated on May 25, only made his first start since returning on Wednesday night. The repetitions allowed Álvarez to settle in, and it paid off handsomely, as he hit .292/.363/.667 with seven homers in May, including five in an eight-game span from May 17–26. For the month, he led the team’s regulars in slugging percentage and placed second in homers behind Pete Alonso. Even with an 0-for-3 on Thursday, he’s batting .252/.308/.523 for a 129 wRC+, third on the team behind Alonso (141 wRC+) and Brandon Nimmo (131 wRC+). His total of eight homers is already the most by any 21-or-under catcher since Ivan Rodriguez in 1993.

“I can’t say enough good things about him,” said Justin Verlander of Álvarez recently. “I think we all know the bat is going to be there. But the work he’s done behind the plate, and the work he’s done to get to know the pitchers, and the improvements he’s made already, it’s just a great sign for him as a future major leaguer.” Grizzled veterans such as Carlos Carrasco and David Robertson have sung his praises for his preparation and handling of the staff, while hitting coach Jeremy Barnes has commended his willingness to make adjustments to what had too often been an all-or-nothing approach. Notably, where Álvarez struck out 35.1% of the time in April, he’s trimmed that to 19.3% since, and where he didn’t have a single barrel in April, he’s barreled 13.6% of his batted balls since.

With Nido now back and Narváez in Syracuse on his rehab assignment, the Mets will soon face a catching crunch. Showalter said back in April that he would consider DHing Álvarez when he’s not catching, “if he shows he’s an offensive force up here,” which he has. That could be bad news for Vientos, who has hit just .192/.214/.308 in 28 PA while serving mainly as a platoon partner for lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach.

Showalter didn’t mention DH duty on Thursday when asked about the potential crowd of catchers, sounding as though he expected to carry all three. “I’m gonna make use of all of ’em,” he said. “Tomás had a good game last night behind the plate, got a base hit, I think we won’t forget he’s been a good catcher for us. Omar’s around the corner, but I kind of like where Francisco is. I’m not gonna box anybody out.”

All of which suggests that at the very least, the kid stays in the picture. While Álvarez is far from a finished product, he’s clearly a special one.

“He just has instincts. You can never teach instincts, you either have it or you don’t. He’s kind of got that it factor to him,” said Scherzer. “He just needs to continue to learn and continue to get experience, and he’ll continue to get better… As long as he has that attitude, and wants to get better every single day, he’s gonna be a great player.”

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Mets. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

After a doubleheader sweep against the Guardians Sunday, the Mets have stretched their winning streak to five and stand two games above .500 for the first time since May 3. In the double-bill, co-aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer combined for 14 innings while allowing just one run. Granted, they mowed down the league’s worst offense by wRC+, but for fans, the pair’s dominance was a sight for sore eyes: Verlander missed all of April with a shoulder issue and Scherzer has had to work around a sticky-stuff suspension, a neck issue, and general ineffectiveness this year. Given these obstacles, it’s reasonable to wonder whether Sunday represented the turning point fans were hoping for or a mere blip in a season of decline for the veteran hurlers. To protect against the latter, the Mets will have to take a hard look at their starting pitching depth.

Coming into the season, we ranked the Mets starting staff as the second-best in the league, right behind the Yankees. While the Bombers have had to weather some injuries of their own, their starters have still managed to post an above-average WAR, FIP, and ERA. Head across the city to Queens, though, and you’ll find the second, third, and sixth-worst staff by WAR, FIP, and ERA, respectively. Clearly, the problems aren’t limited to their top two starters.

Due to ailments of their own, the Mets have gotten just 18.2 frames out of José Quintana and Carlos Carrasco combined. But one reason we liked the Amazins’ staff so much to begin the season was their enviable depth — their sixth, seventh, and eighth starters in David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and Joey Lucchesi easily could have started the season as part of the top-five somewhere else. The three of them have all been healthy, and along with Kodai Senga and the (inconsistent) contributions of Scherzer, that alone should have made for a serviceable starting five through April. Read the rest of this entry »