Archive for Mets

How Sticky Was It?

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

So far this year, there have been two ejections and suspensions for sticky stuff, along with two notable non-ejections. In all four instances — two of them just in the last week — the umpires involved made themselves available to a pool reporter for comment after the game. I cannot for the life of me imagine that the umpires want to be making these statements, but here’s the thing: So far as I can tell, they’re not required to. There’s no way that on an umpire’s list of favorite things to do after a game, Describe How Sticky Max Scherzer’s Hand Was ranks anywhere near the top 10. And yet, whether to justify their actions or out of a sincere belief that sunshine is the best disinfectant, the umpires have dutifully attempted to answer that impossible question. Not that I’m complaining. I adore these explanations. I don’t know how anyone could actually do a good job of explaining how sticky a hand was, but watching big league umpires give it their best shot is a truly rewarding experience.

I spent a morning trying to look up how tackiness is measured. It turns out there’s no one answer, but there is an ocean of scientific debate to dive into. I can now tell you the difference between probe testing, loop tack testing, the rolling ball test, and the peel adhesion test. Each test needs to account for variables like dwell time, contact pressure, temperature, and test speed. There’s also something called the finger test, which isn’t as gross as it sounds (but also probably is). Read the rest of this entry »


Max Scherzer Is Just One Pain in the Neck for the Skidding Mets

Max Scherzer
Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not going well for the Mets these days. Since jumping out to a 14–7 start despite a slew of injuries, particularly to their rotation, they’ve lost 13 of 17 amid a particularly soft stretch of their schedule. Now, just as Justin Verlander is settling into the rotation after recovering from a teres major strain that delayed his debut, Max Scherzer has been scratched from a start for the second time this month, which at least sheds light on his early struggles. Alas, the Mets’ problems hardly end with their co-ace.

On Tuesday, the 38-year-old Scherzer was scratched from his scheduled start against the Reds due to neck spasms; on Wednesday, he couldn’t even play catch:

Scherzer was able to throw out to 90 feet in a flat-ground session on Thursday but won’t be able to start until Saturday at the earliest. That’s left the team’s rotation plans in apparent disarray…

… not that a whole lot of good answers abound within a unit that ranks 12th in the NL with a 5.38 ERA, 14th with a 5.64 FIP, and dead last with -0.4 WAR. I don’t want to pile on here or overstate the obvious, but a $358 million payroll should probably buy more than that. Read the rest of this entry »


Brandon Nimmo Is Nimmoing So Hard Right Now

Brandon Nimmo
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

A few years ago, no one would have believed you if you told them that Brandon Nimmo would get $162 million in free agency. That hustling guy on the Mets? How many millions? I don’t know whether it’s the try-hard-ness or the walk-heavy shape of his production, but his rise to prominence and subsequent nine-figure payday elicited more “wow he got what?” responses and raised eyebrows than any marquee free agent in recent history, save possibly Xander Bogaerts’ deal with the Padres. Well, the joke’s on those eyebrow raisers, because Nimmo is one of the best players in baseball this year, and he’s doing it by being as Nimmo as he’s ever been.

What does that mean? I’m glad you asked. For me, the core Nimmo skillset is getting on base without putting the ball in play. He might do it by walking. He might do it by wearing one on the elbow (or, let’s be realistic, elbow pad). However he handles it, though, his most consistent and bankable skill is juicing up the bases for the Mets’ bashers and boppers to drive him home.

In that sense, this season is just business as usual:

Brandon Nimmo, Free Bases by Year
Year BB% HBP% Total
2017 15.3% 0.9% 16.2%
2018 15.0% 4.1% 19.1%
2019 18.1% 2.0% 20.1%
2020 14.7% 2.7% 17.4%
2021 14.0% 1.3% 15.3%
2022 10.5% 2.4% 12.9%
2023 14.7% 1.7% 16.4%

All those free bases add up. Nimmo got a cup of coffee in the majors in 2016, but his first real playing time was in 2017. Since then, he’s seventh in baseball in on-base percentage, just behind plate discipline legend Joey Votto. Read the rest of this entry »


Is Pete Alonso the Greatest Home Run Hitter of All Time?

Pete Alonso
Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

Pete Alonso is a specialist. He’s not one of those boring types, though: defensive replacement, pinch-runner, long reliever, LOOGY, the list goes on and on. He’s the kind of specialist that every team would take more of: a home run specialist. You might not notice it, because every star hitter is seemingly also a slugger these days, but Alonso isn’t like the rest of them. He’s out there for the home runs, and everything else about his game simply works in support of that.

That’s a vague statement, but I really think it’s true. To me, there’s no player in baseball today who is a more pure home run hitter. Given that we play in one of the homer-happiest eras in baseball history, and that players today train harder than at any point in the past, he might be the best home run hitter of all time.

Let’s start with a simple fact: since Alonso debuted in 2019, no one has hit more home runs. He’s 13 homers clear of Aaron Judge in second place, with a whopping 156. This isn’t a case of a pile of extra-base hits with some going over the wall, either. Of the top 15 homer hitters in that span, only Judge has a higher proportion of home runs as a share of all extra-base hits. Alonso isn’t up there spraying balls into the gap; he’s up there trying to give fans souvenirs:

Top 15 Home Run Hitters, ’19-’23
Player 2B 3B HR % HR
Pete Alonso 91 5 156 61.9%
Aaron Judge 75 1 143 65.3%
Kyle Schwarber 79 6 132 60.8%
Matt Olson 114 2 129 52.7%
Eugenio Suarez 80 4 128 60.4%
Rafael Devers 156 7 116 41.6%
Max Muncy 74 4 115 59.6%
Nolan Arenado 119 6 115 47.9%
Marcus Semien 126 15 115 44.9%
Mike Trout 80 7 115 56.9%
Shohei Ohtani 84 19 110 51.6%
Manny Machado 104 6 109 49.8%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 105 5 109 49.8%
Paul Goldschmidt 121 3 108 46.6%
José Ramírez 132 15 108 42.4%

Read the rest of this entry »


Adam Ottavino, ROOGY No More

Adam Ottavino
Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

The best article I’ve ever read about Adam Ottavino was written on this site. Travis Sawchik wrote it, years ago, and ever since then I’ve found myself following Ottavino’s career and thinking about that article. The season after he revamped his pitching arsenal by throwing by himself in a Manhattan storefront, he had a career year for the Rockies. The season after that, he returned to New York to pitch for the Yankees, and after a brief detour to Boston in 2021, he’s back in his hometown pitching for the Mets. Now, though, he’s doing it with some new tools.

That fateful offseason, Ottavino learned to command his slider. But that wasn’t the pitch he was trying to learn at the start. Take a look at his pitch mix by year, and you can see the cutter he planned on integrating:

Adam Ottavino Pitch Mix, ’16-’19
Year Four-Seam Sinker Cutter Slider Changeup
2016 19.3% 33.9% 3.1% 43.1% 0.7%
2017 33.4% 17.5% 2.9% 46.2% 0.0%
2018 1.3% 41.9% 9.8% 46.8% 0.2%
2019 1.9% 39.6% 13.8% 44.7% 0.0%

Big sweeping sliders like the one Ottavino throws pair well with sinkers, and he changed his primary fastball accordingly. But sweeping sliders and sinkers both display large platoon splits, so he also picked up a cutter to pair with his two primary pitches. That was the idea, at least. In practice, he didn’t throw his cutter much against lefties, and by 2020 he didn’t throw it much at all. From 2020 through ’22, he threw that cutter only 3.7% of the time overall.

In a perhaps related development, Ottavino has gotten shelled by lefties since 2018: from that year through ’22, he allowed a sterling .256 wOBA against righties and a middle-of-the-road .313 mark against lefties. That’s hardly surprising; he basically only threw two pitches, and neither of them are at their best against opposite-handed batters. The Yankees used him more or less as a righty specialist and then traded him to the Red Sox in a salary dump to make their bullpen work more efficiently. Read the rest of this entry »


New Pitch Uniqueness, Pt. 2: The Slambio (and a Ghost Fork update)

Ian Hamilton
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

This young season has already introduced us to a few unique offerings. Brent Honeywell Jr. throws a true screwball. Kodai Senga throws a ghost fork. But one fascinating pitch has flown somewhat under the radar: Ian Hamilton’s slambio.

Maybe it’s because of the right-hander’s lack of a pedigree, or his status as a non-roster invitee during spring training. After all, Hamilton is a 27-year-old reliever who struggled through injuries and ineffectiveness over the past four years. At the same time, he looked like a find as recently as 2018, when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA and 2.44 FIP across 51.2 innings between Double- and Triple-A; he even averaged 96.7 mph on his heater in a brief eight-inning callup. The next season, he seemed poised to play an integral part in the White Sox bullpen, but he was struck by a foul ball while rehabbing separate shoulder and head issues stemming from a car accident. His poor luck nearly brought his career to an end, but he finally began to feel back to normal this offseason.

If you didn’t know about Hamilton before, I’ll be the first to tell you that he has been a joy to watch this season, not only because of his unique offering but also his comeback story, parlaying his rediscovered health into a spot in the Yankees’ pen, where he’s found early-season success with a resurgent fastball (averaging 95.4) and the slambio. The latter pitch has been nothing short of excellent thus far: a ludicrous 29.9% swinging-strike rate and worth 3.8 runs, which rank third and tied for fourth, respectively, among the 85 sliders thrown at least 50 times this year (as of Saturday night). The pitch’s unusually high rate of called strikes, 15.6%, given its whiffiness, also places it second among the 85 sliders in CSW%. Read the rest of this entry »


A (Ghost) Fork in the Road: What Can We Expect From Senga’s Premier Pitch?

Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a tough start to the season for the Mets’ rotation. Their two-headed ace monster isn’t looking so fearsome, as Justin Verlander went on the IL before throwing a regular-season pitch — joining fellow free-agent signee Jose Quintana — and Max Scherzer has been ineffective through two starts. To make matters worse, Carlos Carrasco dealt with erratic velocity in the first of the team’s back-to-back blowout losses at the hands of the Brewers and yielded a six-spot against the light-hitting Marlins. But one major bright spot has shone.

Kodai Senga, the former three-time NPB All-Star, shut down the Marlins in his Mets debut. With a trademark offering he calls the “ghost fork” and an emblazoned glove to match, he seems poised to become a fan favorite.

Read the rest of this entry »


Lessons From 11 Years of Darin Ruf

Darin Ruf
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The actual process of cutting a major league baseball player on a guaranteed contract is easy enough in theory, but time-consuming in practice. The Mets designated Darin Ruf for assignment last Monday and had likely known he wouldn’t make the team for at least a couple weeks before that. But it wasn’t until this Monday that the 36-year-old former Creighton Blue Jay finally received his release. That ends the fifth act in Ruf’s career, one everyone would probably just as soon forget.

Ruf was one of several first base/DH types who passed through waivers just before the season, as teams weighed the potential for a bounceback against the downside of being on the hook for $3 million in his case, plus another $250,000 to buy out his club option in 2024 if things didn’t go well. Perhaps he’ll be more attractive at the league minimum or as depth in Triple-A if he accepts such an assignment, and we’ll see him in the majors again.

Even if this is the end of Ruf’s time as a major leaguer, he’s had a noteworthy career, spanning 561 games over parts of eight seasons across 10 years, on either side of a dominant three-year run in the KBO. I, for one, did not expect to be writing about Ruf in 2023, but he’s confounded my expectations and then some. Read the rest of this entry »


The Season Has Begun, but Verlander, Wainwright, Severino, and McKenzie Will Have to Wait

Justin Verlander
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Verlander wasn’t scheduled to start on Thursday, but he couldn’t even make it to the first pitch of his first Opening Day as a Met unscathed. The 40-year-old righty officially opened the season on the injured list due to a low-grade strain of his teres major, and while his absence isn’t expected to be a lengthy one, it comes at the tail end of a spring in which the Mets already lost starter José Quintana for about half the season and closer Edwin Diaz for most if not all of it.

Unfortunately, Verlander isn’t the only frontline starter to be sidelined by a teres major strain this week, as the Guardians’ Triston McKenzie recently suffered a more serious strain of the same muscle. Likewise, Verlander isn’t the only big-name hurler for a New York team who was sidelined this week (the Yankees’ Luis Severino is out again), nor is he the only NL East starter to turn up lame on Thursday (the Braves’ Max Fried took an early exit), or the only over-40 star whose plans took a turn (the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright missed his Opening Day assignment). If it’s not a party until something gets broken, it’s not a new baseball season until a star pitcher goes down. Perhaps the only consolation to be had in this round-up is that all of these injuries are muscle strains of some sort rather than ligaments or tendons. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1982: Season Preview Series: Mets and Athletics

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the WBC’s TV ratings in Japan and (8:56) possible consequences of MLB’s RSN shake-up, then continue their 2023 season preview series by discussing the New York Mets (21:08) with Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports, and the Oakland Athletics (1:00:11) with Matt Kawahara of The SF Chronicle, plus a Past Blast from 1982 (1:39:53) and trivia answers (1:52:11).

Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 1: The Beets, “Watching Television
Audio interstitial 2: Goodbye Kumiko, “Oakland
Audio outro: Superare, “Sunglasses

Link to Tokyo water pressure story
Link to report about WBC ratings
Link to Twitter thread about ratings
Link to Super Bowl ratings
Link to highest WS ratings
Link to MLB WBC press release
Link to co-exclusive partner banter
Link to Sheehan’s newsletter
Link to MLBTR on Diamond
Link to Premier League history
Link to teams’ local revenue
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to FG payroll breakdown
Link to Mets offseason tracker
Link to Mets depth chart
Link to Deesha on Díaz
Link to Jay Jaffe on Díaz
Link to Mets trumpet taps video
Link to Deesha on Álvarez and Baty
Link to Deesha on the farm system
Link to Deesha’s author archive
Link to Athletics offseason tracker
Link to Athletics depth chart
Link to Nimmo video
Link to Nimmo article
Link to West Wing scene
Link to Eck’s Pirates comments
Link to Vogt hiring story
Link to Matt on CF
Link to story on Pache in LF
Link to Dan Moore on the A’s park
Link to Matt’s spring hitting preview
Link to Matt’s spring pitching preview
Link to Matt’s author archive
Link to 1982 article source
Link to Opti-Web glove
Link to BP on Mizuno
Link to article on baseball sunglasses
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter

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