Archive for Teams

Credible baseball analysis, such as the sort which populates this website, is recognizable insofar as it begins with evidence and then works from that evidence towards a conclusion. The present document differs in this way from credible baseball analysis. For the purposes of this post, what the author has done is actually not to begin with evidence, but rather to start with the conclusion itself — and then worked to find evidence that might support that conclusion.

Here’s the conclusion, now and forever: Oakland minor-leaguer Max Schrock is a more promising baseball prospect than so-called “experts” would have everyone believe. Why it’s essential to reach this conclusion, that’s not entirely clear. The return on investment of this eventuality isn’t immediately evident. However, ever since the present author wagered his professional reputation on the suggestion that Schrock would someday become an MVP, any data which supports that unlikely hypothesis has held some interest for him. And so what one finds here is a post that supports that unlikely hypothesis.

This particular dispatch from the Max Schrock Propaganda Machine regards Schrock’s performance at the Arizona Fall League. As of today, the AFL has only a single game remaining on its schedule — namely, the championship contest between Surprise and Schrock’s Mesa squad on Saturday. In other words, the bulk of the data for this year’s edition of the Fall League has been recorded. And what that data suggests, if one can believe it, is that Max Schrock is a more promising baseball prospect than so-called “experts” would have everyone believe.

Let’s begin with a recent observation:

I can't see so good without my glasses, can someone tell me which batter has lowest strikeout rate in Fall League? pic.twitter.com/ooUo9FFkor

— Carson Cistulli (@cistulli) November 16, 2016

What one finds here is a leaderboard of the AFL’s top qualified batters by strikeout rate, current as of a few days ago. What one also finds is Oakland minor-leaguer Max Schrock at the top of that leaderboard.

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The Astros had themselves a busy Thursday, picking up Brian McCann from the Yankees, and then signing Josh Reddick out of free agency. This is not intended as an overreaction to that. There’s no such thing as a team being “put over the top,” and the Astros haven’t been dramatically altered by adding a decent corner outfielder and a veteran catcher whose contract was partially paid down. The reality is that an awful lot was already in place. It’s just worth talking about what’s being constructed, instead of me focusing specifically on Reddick. The smaller story is that the Astros signed Reddick for four years and $52 million. The bigger story is that the Astros are entering the league’s upper class.

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The Yankees acquired two high-octane arms from Houston in exchange for veteran catcher Brian McCann today in right-handed pitchers Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman.

Abreu is the main piece for New York, a somewhat undersized (on paper, anyway) righty with absolutely electric arm speed that he produces with little effort. Abreu’s fastball will sit in the low- to mid-90s, usually 91-96, and touch as high as 98. He has well below-average command of his fastball (and the rest of his repertoire) right now but the ease of Abreu’s delivery allows for considerable projection in this area, though of course it’s not a foregone conclusion that he’ll develop starter-level command.

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Without looking at either team too hard, you might think the Astros needed major league pitching and the Yankees needed major league pitching. So of course the Yankees traded catcher Brian McCann (and $5.5m a year) to the Astros for prospect right-handers Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman. We’ll learn more about the prospects (other than their high velocity fastballs) later, but the major league teams probably both needed this trade, and it might have actually been about pitching for the Astros anyway.

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Back in 2008, after a half-decade of great hitting, David Ortiz slumped a bit, recording “only” a 124 wRC+. At 32, it was fair to expect some decline in performance. An offensive line 24% better than league average — as opposed to the 45-75% he’d been sustaining — seemed like a reasonable indicator of that decline. The next season, Ortiz slumped even more, posting just a 100 wRC+, essentially becoming a replacement-level player in the process. It made sense to wonder if he were finished. He wasn’t, of course. Ortiz proceeded to put up a 148 wRC+ over the next seven years, retiring after this past year following his age-40 season.

At 36, free agent Jose Bautista is a few years older than Ortiz was back in 2008, but similar questions apply. From 2010 to 2015, the former Jays outfielder put up a 156 wRC+, establishing himself as one of the best hitters in the game. He entered spring training this year thinking big in free agency, hoping for a contract well above $100 million. Following his 2016 season, that seems less likely. Bautista produced “only” a 122 wRC+ — and, for the first time during his tenure with the Blue Jays, Bautista was a below average player, putting up just a 1.4 WAR.

Despite a disappointing season at the plate, though — and questions about his arm holding up in the outfield — the projections expect a rebound for Bautista. Our Depth Chart forecast calls for a 128 wRC+ and 2.8 WAR from Baustita, which would still make him a valuable player next season.

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Mike Trout probably isn’t going to win the MVP today. I’ll be honest with you: It’s hard for me to care very much. I know that it would mean something to Trout, and I know we’re all supposed to rail against arguments we disagree with, and I do disagree with the argument that Trout isn’t the league’s most valuable player. I just don’t see how it really matters. All Trout’s missing is a piece of hardware, and a nice moment with his friends and family. As recognition goes, he’s already widely recognized as the best player in the game. Even the people who don’t vote for him say that. And, down the line, Trout’s numbers will speak for themselves. His Hall-of-Fame candidacy won’t come down to the number of awards he picked up. Voters look beyond that, and, even more importantly, Trout’s unlikely to be a borderline case. He’s on track to coast into Cooperstown, and he’s on track to be one of the best players ever. Everybody sees that, and missing an award won’t slow him down.

In a way, Trout might even benefit from not winning. An award, sure, is an excuse to try to appreciate a great player. But when Trout finishes second or third, then people get to argue the voting’s unjust. The conversation revolves around Trout, and it sheds light on how much better he is than the rest of his teammates. In short, when MVP voting comes around, Trout’s greatness is widely broadcast. People hear about it, regardless of who actually wins the damn thing.

I now want to touch on that greatness one more time. One thing that separates great players from good ones is that great players are never satisfied. Every player is to some degree motivated, but the great players make improvements. If you look at Trout, along the line, he improved his power hitting. He improved his contact ability, and he improved his approach. He improved against high fastballs. There’s recently been one more improvement. We’re pretty much out of things that Mike Trout doesn’t do.

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Mike Berardino of the the St. Paul Pioneer Press had an American League Cy Young Award vote this year. He filled out his ballot as follows:

1. Verlander
2. Britton
3. Miller
4. Kluber
5. Porcello

I respect Berardino’s ballot. As a matter of fact, I applaud it — and not only because he placed the three starters in the same order I would have. That’s a secondary consideration. Far more meaningful is the fact that he included both Zach Britton and Andrew Miller, and not just one of the two.

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In a stunning development, the results of a BBWAA awards vote have generated massive controversy in the baseball world. Who could have seen that coming? A shocker to be sure!

Despite failing to receive the most first-place votes, Rick Porcello has edged out Justin Verlander to win the American League Cy Young Award. The full results of the balloting can be found here. Porcello beat Verlander by just five points, 137 to 132. That’s as tight a race as you’re going to see. It was largely due to the fact that while Verlander got 14 of the 30 possible first-place votes, Porcello received 18 second-place votes, and Verlander was left entirely off of two ballots.

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The Cubs won the World Series. I’m sure enough has been made of that. I’m not sure enough has been made of their defense. Or, if you prefer, their hit suppression. Don’t get me wrong, there have been articles about this very topic. But, you know BABIP. By BABIP allowed, the 2016 Cubs were the all-time best. The all-time best, over more than a century. It’s kind of unbelievable what the Cubs pulled off.

Like many statistics, league BABIP changes with the eras. You don’t want to compare raw BABIPs throughout history, just as you wouldn’t want to compare raw strikeout rates, or slugging percentages. I’ve calculated something very simple — the difference between a team’s BABIP allowed and the league-average BABIP allowed. Here’s a table of the top 10 since 1900, and, well, I told you:

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The title of this post serves is a warning, but not an absolute one. There’s a price at which just about any player becomes palatable. If Edwin Encarnacion were available to a team for just $1 this offseason, that team should sign him. For a number of reasons, Edwin Encarnacion will not be available for $1 this offseason. For a number of reasons, Edwin Encarnacion is going to earn much more than that. For a number of reasons, he’s likely to be overpaid for the services he’ll render.

Encarnacion, 33, just finished a season in which he hit 42 home runs and produced four wins above replacement. That matches very well with his last five seasons, during which he has averaged 39 homers and four wins above replacement. A standard decline from that level of production should make Encarnacion a very valuable player in this year’s free-agent class, but there are major warning signs.

In his piece on free-agent landmines, Dave Cameron wrote that Encarnacion was unlikely to be worth $100 million ($90 million in salary plus the value of the draft pick) unless he defies the aging process. How do we estimate Encarnacion’s worth? A couple ways, actually.

Let’s begin with a simple way — namely, by applying a standard aging curve to Encarnacion’s current 2017 projection. Encarnacion has been a steady four-win player for half a decade. If we were to see some decline, we might expect him to produce just a 3.5 WAR next season. Our current projections for Encarnacion estimate that he’ll record only a 2.3 WAR next season, however.

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