Archive for Teams

In a slump, the mental and physical combine to confuse, and the player ends up in a spiral. “You go up to the plate and you think about your weaknesses, and you start focusing on them, and you start chasing,” Brandon Moss said before a game against the Giants, adding “it all starts to spin around.” Since having offseason hip surgery, the Cardinals’ slugger has been spinning in both facets of the game.

A recent tear might be the result of getting right, though. An adjustment to his mechanics, a milestone in his workouts, and a slight tweak to his approach all recently came together. The result looks more like the Moss that averaged 33 home runs for every 600 plate appearances coming into this season.

To illustrate how he’s gotten his game back together, there might not be a better way than to have Moss take us through three plate appearances against Rubby de la Rosa last week. The pitcher got the better of him once, but when the batter did his damage, it was the result of a convergence of factors.

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So, I’m browsing around Twitter. I’m not looking for anything in particular, but then something catches my eye. It isn’t a tweet — it’s a trend, based on a series of tweets, happening somewhere outside of my circle. You know how trends work. The thing I saw Tuesday evening:

I’m not unaccustomed to seeing baseball topics pop up over there. They tend to mirror the ongoing action, and sometimes the trends are accompanied by featured links to stories. This one linked to an article from Jeff Blair. The teaser is something made just for me: It suggests a change in performance, following a change in approach. I’m a total sucker for that genre. I’m fascinated by stories of baseball players who work hard to make themselves better. What was throwing me in this case was the name. I consider myself prepared for most players to improve.

This is about Ryan Goins.

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The Angels ascended to first place in the AL West in the final game before the All-Star break. A week and a half later, they had a two-game lead, and since that point, they’ve lost the two-game lead, and then several more games beyond that, in a team-wide collapse that’s threatened to leave the Angels on the outside of the playoff picture. They’ve lost 26 of 37, losing 9.5 games in the standings to the Astros, and 12.5 to the Rangers. Over the span, they’re last in the AL in runs scored. Over the span, they’re second-to-last in the AL in runs allowed. The season can still be salvaged — clearly, things can change in a jiffy — but this has been a nightmare stretch, lasting nearly a quarter of the season. It’s hard to survive a lost quarter.

Obviously, in a slump like this, several parties are partly responsible. A team doesn’t sink based on one or two players. But, generally, when a team sinks, people don’t look to blame players like, say, Erick Aybar. They don’t blame players like Hector Santiago. They look to the stars who aren’t pulling their weight, and one can’t help but note that Mike Trout hasn’t quite produced like himself. Like many of his teammates, Trout’s been in a rut, and that’s done more than just open the MVP race to Josh Donaldson. As Trout’s concerned, there are questions, and I feel like it’s my obligation to try to answer them as best I can. I know my role, here.

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Since the New York Yankees’ incredible five-year run at the end of the last century, which saw the club win four titles with a youth-filled core, the Yankees have long been seen as an aging group of veteran free-agent purchases. Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, and Alex Rodriguez supplemented Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera as the group entered their 30s. Whether that perception was fair or merely irrelevant, the club remained successful for much of the last decade as players aged slowly and made great contributions into their 30s. As Major League Baseball got younger, though, the Yankees’ core aged without young replacements on the farm. It appeared as though the Yankees might have a rough couple of years when, after the club missed the playoffs in 2013, ownership tried to reduce payroll below $189 million in attempt to save millions in salary cap money and revenue sharing.

As sometimes happens, though, the Yankees’ owners appeared to change their mind and a spending spree in the winter of 2013 brought in free agents Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran, as well as the acquisition of Masahiro Tanaka in order to compete in 2014. That effort fell short as injuries, age, and the missing production of Alex Rodriguez all took their toll on the franchise and the team fell short of the playoffs. In 2015, the team’s elder batsmen — Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran — have remained healthy for much of the season and led the way for an offense sporting a 107 wRC+, second only to the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League.

Mark Teixeira had been having a phenomenal year prior to his recent injury, Alex Rodriguez has been strong in his return from suspension, and Carlos Beltran has recovered nicely from a very poor start to the season. All three are among the very best in the league among position players 35 years old and older this season.

Best 2015 Seasons by Players at Least 35 Years of Age

Name	Team	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR	Age
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	.255	.357	.548	145	2.9	35
Adrian Beltre	Rangers	.273	.314	.427	96	2.7	36
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	.257	.363	.489	133	2.3	39
David Ortiz	Red Sox	.264	.352	.515	128	1.9	39
Albert Pujols	Angels	.247	.305	.493	121	1.8	35
Juan Uribe	Braves	.254	.318	.418	103	1.7	36
A.J. Pierzynski	Braves	.293	.333	.424	107	1.7	38
Carlos Beltran	Yankees	.282	.344	.480	125	1.6	38
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	.290	.409	.420	132	1.2	35

The above list constitutes every player 35 and older with at least one win above replacement on the season. Just a decade ago, there were double that amount, and two previous years had a dozen players each. The Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies are the only teams with more than 1,000 plate appearances from players at least 35 years old, and the Yankees’ 6.8 WAR from those players is more than double the second-place Braves — and actually higher than the rest of MLB combined (6.6 WAR).

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Madison Bumgarner has been having quite a month of August. He’s posted a 53:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing only six earned runs in 37.2 innings, and he’s looked almost as unhittable as he did last October, when he relentlessly took the ball for the Giants in high pressure situations during the playoffs. That’s not a coincidence, it turns out, as Bumgarner is currently exhibiting tendencies that are quite similar to the 2014 postseason version of himself.

Before we go down that particular road, let’s have a brief introduction to Bumgarner, 2015 starting pitcher. On these digital pages, we’ve featured an article on how well he hits — which is quite well indeed — but not much else in the way of analysis this season; I will remedy that fact in a brief, limited manner. We could spend an entire article about the minute changes Bumgarner has made in 2015. Instead, here’s a cliffs notes version:

• He’s throwing more fastballs than at any point since 2011.
• He’s basically ditched his changeup, as he’s relied almost strictly on a three-pitch combination of fastball, slider (referred to at times as a cutter), and curveball in 2015. Here is his pitch usage since 2010, his first semi-full season in the majors (courtesy of Brooks Baseball, which calls his slider a cutter):

• Finally, his command improvements from last season have stuck, as he’s posting a career-low walk rate (4.3%) and career-high strikeout rate (27.4%).

These are all good things. By the numbers, Bumgarner is perhaps the best version of himself that he’s ever been, and it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s posting the best xFIP of his career while challenging his best in ERA and FIP.

That’s why this month has been extra interesting; because, in the midst of one of his best seasons, Bumgarner seems to be up to something. And that something just happens to be intentionally throwing slower.

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Loudly and quietly, the Blue Jays made a series of improvements around deadline time. Very conspicuously, they added an incredible shortstop. Very conspicuously, they added an incredible starting pitcher. Somewhat conspicuously, they added a decent left fielder. It was the bullpen work that went almost unnoticed. Armed with some new personnel, and with some shifted personnel, the Jays came away from July with a stronger relief unit. Really, they came away with a stronger everything, and the team has taken off, but the bullpen, now, seems like it’s become a strength. It’s just not what drew the headlines.

The Rangers aren’t the Blue Jays, but they are in the race, and there are a few parallels here. Something in the vicinity of a .500 team around deadline time. A huge impact addition, in the form of Cole Hamels. And a very quietly strengthened bullpen, that’s given the Rangers some late-inning reliability for maybe the first time all year. Let’s face it — the second wild card isn’t going to a great team. The Rangers aren’t a great team. They’re becoming a solid team, however. A team that might as well deserve to keep playing. It was an awful big August, and it was a month made possible by improvement in a bullpen no one was paying attention to.

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Not all no-hitters are thrown by No. 1 starting pitchers. And, not all No. 1 starting pitchers eventually throw no-hitters. This is a crucial truth — randomness always plays a significant part, so a no-hitter can be meaningful without being predictive. Yet, when a No. 1 starting pitcher does throw a no-hitter, it feels a little like validation. It feels a little like a stamp, cementing the reality that said pitcher is an ace. Jake Arrieta spun a no-hitter on Sunday, after having made several earlier attempts. Arrieta was a No. 1 before the weekend, but now he’s more widely recognized as part of the group. Doesn’t need to work that way, but that’s the way it works.

And it’s never a bad time for a reminder of just how good Arrieta has been. See, this can benefit everyone. People who didn’t know Arrieta before now know that he’s good. And people who did know Arrieta before might be less inclined to underrate him. This has gone on for some time. Since the start of last season, Arrieta is tied for second in baseball in ERA-. He ranks third in FIP-. He’s fourth in xFIP-. If you add all the numbers together, Arrieta ranks second in the resulting statistic, sandwiched by Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale. No-hitters are always a little lucky, but the bigger point is Arrieta required less luck than most. Because, simply, he’s far better than most. It’s been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt.

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Going into the season, Stephen Piscotty was projected to be a contact and patience guy because that’s what he’d been in the minor leagues for the most part. But this offseason, he had a plan, and he changed his approach and mechanics in order to be a better player. Perhaps the projections going forward are a little light, given the changes he’s made.

Preseason Steamer projections had Piscotty with a .114 isolated slugging percentage, on par with Logan Forsythe and Ryan Sweeney. After a power surge in Triple-A for 370 plate appearances, and four major league homers, the rest of season projection is now up to a .133 level, or Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings level.

That’s improvement, but what if he’s fundamentally changed and the projections are still light?

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With the news this past weekend that (former) Diamondbacks reliever Addison Reed was headed to the Mets, New York may have finally secured the missing piece to their bullpen: a steady seventh-inning reliever to bridge the gap between the talented starting rotation and the eighth- and ninth-inning guys, Tyler Clippard and Jeurys Familia. This was a forward-looking move by the front office: an anticipation of, dare we say, the likely reality of the Mets in the playoffs.

Any memories of Reed’s 2015 season in Arizona — which was punctuated by early struggles, culminating in him losing the closer role — may need to be revised given his move to New York. While his lack of command was the main driver of his first half problems (as well as some bad luck in terms of balls put in play), his second half has been more along the lines of the reliever that at times showed dominance for the White Sox and Diamondbacks.

Let’s take a look at a few key stats for Reed between the first and second halves of the season to get a better handle on who the Mets might be getting in return for two young arms:

Reed’s command has returned in the almost two months since the All-Star break, his strikeout rate is up from the first half of the season, and his velocity is largely unchanged from the previous two seasons. The vital signs point to a useful reliever who has seemingly put both first half struggles and an injury behind him, one who will be at the very least an upgrade over the previous option of Hansel Robles (even though Robles has been very effective in the second half of the season).

Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.

Since the start of the 2009 season, no team has won fewer games than the Astros, and during that window they’ve picked up a new general manager. The Marlins have won the second-fewest games, and they technically changed general managers. So did the Cubs, with the third-fewest wins. So did the Rockies, with the fourth-fewest wins. And now so have the Mariners, with the fifth-fewest. Word went out Friday morning, on the firing of Jack Zduriencik, and though no one expected the specific timing, the writing had probably been on the wall. Think about the Mariners. Think about what you think about when you think about the Mariners. That’s why they made this decision. It felt inevitable, with the only question being, when would the blade drop?

If you’re reading this, I’m guessing you’re no stranger to FanGraphs. If you’re no stranger to FanGraphs, I’m guessing you’ve seen a certain reference once or twice before. It’s this one. Years ago, FanGraphs tried to feature organizational rankings, and though we no longer do that, people have long memories, and in between 2009 and 2010, the site ranked the Mariners at No. 6, just above — also hilariously — the Rockies. A big reason was because the FG staff at that time collectively believed in the new Zduriencik front office. People laugh because, by and large, the Mariners have sucked. People laugh because, by and large, the front office seemingly took a step back. But I think this is particularly interesting to reflect upon. Say what you will about the ranking, but that’s what the staff believed. And not too long after, the front office completely changed its identity.

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