Last week, David Laurila asked me an interesting question. He’d been talking baseball with some baseball players – it’s true, we really do have great jobs – and the conversation landed on Josh Hader. That got Laurila thinking about Hader’s similarities to Spencer Strider. The crux of the discussion: Would Hader have ended up as a lefty version of Strider if, after appearing in the major leagues as a reliever, he’d transitioned back to the starting role he held in the minors?
I love questions like this. They’re fun to research, and I also feel no pressure to reach a definitive answer. Would Hader have ended up as a great starter? It’s clearly unknowable. That gives me a lot more latitude to speculate. In addition, this question isn’t just about Hader. It’s about whether future pitchers with Hader-esque profiles make more sense as starters or in the bullpen. No wrong answers and broad implications? Sign me up.
First things first, let’s talk about what it means to look like Strider as a starter. Strider has two standout pitches, but it’s really one standout pitch and a capable understudy. His fastball explodes through the top of the zone and screws hitters into the ground. It’s not so much the velocity – though that doesn’t hurt – but the shape and release point that combine to bamboozle opposing hitters. Read the rest of this entry »
The Braves are the best team in baseball right now. They were the first team to clinch their division, and their title odds are nearly double that of any other squad. Their leadoff man, Ronald Acuña Jr., is gunning for a 40-70 season, and their cleanup hitter, Matt Olson, just hit his 52nd homer of the year, surpassing the franchise’s single-season record. Oh, and they have six other All-Stars besides that pair, including one of the favorites to win the FIP Cy Young in Spencer Strider.
If the Braves have shown any weakness this season, it’s been their relative lack of starting pitching depth. They’ve had a trio of 29-game starters in Strider, Bryce Elder, and Charlie Morton, and while all of them have showcased their warts down the stretch, the main problems for the rotation were the absences of last year’s ace — Max Fried — and breakout starter — Kyle Wright. Though he’s made just 13 starts on the season (the fourth most on the team), Fried is back now, and he’s looking pretty darn good, rounding out what should be an excellent four-man playoff rotation, so the Braves’ issues with depth (and Wright’s struggles) likely won’t matter as much in October. Yet, they left me scratching my head at times this season when they passed over top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver for starts in Fried and Wright’s absence. Read the rest of this entry »
In the Beforetimes, mid-September brought my annual check-in on the potential for end-of-season chaos in the playoff races via the Team Entropy series. With last year’s introduction of an expanded and restructured postseason, however, Major League Baseball did away with the potential for scheduling mayhem in favor of a larger inventory of playoff games. Along with the expansion of the playoff field from 10 teams to 12 and of the Wild Card round from a pair of winner-take-all games to a quartet of three-game series, MLB also eliminated all winner-take-all regular-season tiebreaker games. In the name of efficiency, we have no more Games 163 and no more potential Bucky Dents. Instead, ties, even for spots where the winner would receive a postseason berth and the loser would go home, are decided by mathematics. It’s enough to make a fan want to shout, “Hey, Manfred, pull your head out of a spreadsheet and watch an elimination game!”
The untangling of the often-chaotic scenarios by which those one-game tiebreakers could come about was Team Entropy’s raison d’etre. But particularly with so many close races, there’s still enough untangling to do in potentially complex tie scenarios that I’ve chosen to continue a version of this exercise, pouring out a cold one for what might have been. If what we’re left with isn’t exactly chaotic, you can thumb your nose at the commissioner as you take a seat on the Team Un-Tropy bandwagon. Read the rest of this entry »
Primary Focus:
Be the leading expert in all the amateur baseball talent in your assigned geographic area, with a strong pulse on amateur prospects among all age groups (draft eligible or otherwise). Ensure the Blue Jays have the most complete information possible about all amateur prospects both on and off the field. Collaborate with all departments of the Blue Jays organization around philosophy, baseball opinions and professional development to sustain amateur draft success by facilitating holistic player evaluations, recruiting and educating players about the Blue Jays. Uphold the vision and values of the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club in a professional manner both on and off the field.
Responsibilities and Duties:
Provide written scouting evaluations on amateur players throughout the year in assigned area via in-person and video coverage; create and update pref lists for current and future draft-eligible players throughout the spring, summer and fall.
Support the Amateur Scouting Department with gathering subjective and objective information about amateur players of interest in one’s area, including but not limited to off-field and on-field makeup, objective testing, injury history and background information.
Organize and communicate scheduling for amateur baseball games within assigned area.
Conduct visits with players within assigned area and assist with the execution of player interviews and assessments during fall and winter months.
Build and maintain working relationships with players, player support system, coaches, advisors, and other key figures related to amateur baseball within one’s area.
Provide written scouting evaluations at local and national amateur events as assigned by Amateur Scouting leadership.
Provide written scouting evaluations from Pro Scouting coverage as assigned in the summer and fall.
Coordinate workouts with Amateur Scouting leadership and supporting departments to assist in player evaluation.
Work with Crosscheckers and other Baseball Operations staff to further develop one’s scouting ability and ensure the thorough collection, organization, and understanding of the information needed to make informed decisions on amateur players.
Complete evaluative and background coverage of all players including those flagged by the Front Office.
Communicate with Amateur Scouting Leadership and office on ways to improve individually, as a department, and as a team.
Manage all administrative tasks in a timely and professional manner (including scouting reports, expenses, schedule updates, high school stats and injury history).
Travel to several regional and full staff scouting meetings throughout the year.
Experience and Job Requirements:
Proficient scouting ability and baseball knowledge. 2+ years of baseball-related work experience preferred.
Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with wide range of individuals including members of the front office, scouts, players, and field staff.
Strong administrative skills to ensure the appropriate level of information on all amateur players.
Passion for baseball and excellent problem-solving and communication skills.
Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office required.
Baseball playing background is preferred, although not required.
Ability to travel on a sporadic basis and to work unpredictable hours including nights and weekends in one’s area.
Demonstrate flexible and efficient time-management skills.
Comply with the policies and procedures of the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club.
Primary Focus:
Be the leading expert in all the amateur baseball talent in your assigned geographic area, with a strong pulse on amateur prospects among all age groups (draft eligible or otherwise). Ensure the Blue Jays have the most complete information possible about all amateur prospects both on and off the field. Collaborate with all departments of the Blue Jays organization around philosophy, baseball opinions and professional development to sustain amateur draft success by facilitating holistic player evaluations, recruiting and educating players about the Blue Jays. Uphold the vision and values of the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club in a professional manner both on and off the field.
Responsibilities and Duties:
Provide written scouting evaluations on amateur players throughout the year in assigned area via in-person and video coverage; create and update pref lists for current and future draft-eligible players throughout the spring, summer and fall.
Support the Amateur Scouting Department with gathering subjective and objective information about amateur players of interest in one’s area, including but not limited to off-field and on-field makeup, objective testing, injury history and background information.
Organize and communicate scheduling for amateur baseball games within assigned area.
Conduct visits with players within assigned area and assist with the execution of player interviews and assessments during fall and winter months.
Build and maintain working relationships with players, player support system, coaches, advisors, and other key figures related to amateur baseball within one’s area.
Provide written scouting evaluations at local and national amateur events as assigned by Amateur Scouting leadership.
Provide written scouting evaluations from Pro Scouting coverage as assigned in the summer and fall.
Coordinate workouts with Amateur Scouting leadership and supporting departments to assist in player evaluation.
Work with Crosscheckers and other Baseball Operations staff to further develop one’s scouting ability and ensure the thorough collection, organization, and understanding of the information needed to make informed decisions on amateur players.
Complete evaluative and background coverage of all players including those flagged by the Front Office.
Communicate with Amateur Scouting Leadership and office on ways to improve individually, as a department, and as a team.
Manage all administrative tasks in a timely and professional manner (including scouting reports, expenses, schedule updates, high school stats and injury history).
Travel to several regional and full staff scouting meetings throughout the year.
Experience and Job Requirements:
Proficient scouting ability and baseball knowledge. 2+ years of baseball-related work experience preferred.
Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with wide range of individuals including members of the front office, scouts, players, and field staff.
Strong administrative skills to ensure the appropriate level of information on all amateur players.
Passion for baseball and excellent problem-solving and communication skills.
Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office required.
Baseball playing background is preferred, although not required.
Ability to travel on a sporadic basis and to work unpredictable hours including nights and weekends in one’s area.
Demonstrate flexible and efficient time-management skills.
Comply with the policies and procedures of the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club.
Gavin Williams came as advertised when I saw him pitch earlier this month. The 24-year-old rookie right-hander’s fastball topped out at 99.3 mph, while his slider sat in the mid-80s and occasionally topped 90. Allowing one hit and a lone run over five rain-delayed innings against the Minnesota Twins, Williams was all about power.
He also came as advertised when I spoke to him on the day preceding his outing. I was told that the 6-foot-6, 255-pound Cleveland Guardians hurler is a man of few words, and that was pretty much the case. While accommodating, Williams was anything but verbose. No matter. I largely got what I was looking for: a self-appraisal of what he brings to the table.
“Most people know me for my fastball, really,” the righty replied when I asked for a self scouting report. “That’s the main thing people know me as, and it’s what I know myself as.”
The Fayetteville, North Carolina native first hit triple digits during his freshman year at East Carolina University, and as meaningful as that milestone was to his identity on the mound, he recognizes that retiring big-league hitters takes more than pure velocity.
“I don’t think 96 to 100 is that big of a difference,” Williams said. “If it’s down the middle it can get hit. Putting it where you want to is a bigger thing. It also matters how it moves.” Read the rest of this entry »
The National League playoff race has been a frenzy in the second half. The Cubs have surged from being virtually out of the picture to probable October qualifiers. The Giants have streaked their way from a likely playoff team to one on the outside looking in a couple of times over – they’re working on their latest push now. The Phillies have risen – albeit more gradually than the Cubs – from no-man’s land to a comfortable Wild Card lead with a few weeks to go. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, Reds, and Marlins each have a negative run differential but are still well in the mix for the final Wild Card.
Amid all the chaos, the Brewers have rather quietly risen up the NL ranks. They’ve handled their business in the Central – most crucially going 10-3 in their season series against those Reds – and on September 15, find themselves with the third-best record in the NL at 82-64, trailing only the NL East champion Braves and the Dodgers. With a 4.5-game lead in the division and a better record than any of the senior circuit’s Wild Card teams, our playoff odds give the Brewers a 94.0% chance of winning the division, with their odds of making the playoffs rounding up to 100.0%. In a year where NL teams have struggled to distinguish themselves from a busy middle of the pack, the Brewers have faced relatively little adversity in doing so:
Imagine trading Mookie Betts. Chaim Bloom must have done that, must have considered all of the angles and potential outcomes of such a move, including the possibility that he would be saddled with it as his legacy — then sold principal owner John Henry on a vision of the Red Sox without the superstar right fielder in order to be hired as the team’s chief baseball officer in October 2019. That trade has not worked out well for the Red Sox, who have made the playoffs just once since winning the 2018 World Series, behaving more like a mid-market franchise than the league’s third-most valuable one. And while Bloom had put something of a stamp on the post-Betts roster, the rest of his vision will not be realized. On Thursday, the Red Sox fired him, kicking off a search for new leadership of their baseball operations department for the fourth time since Theo Epstein departed for the Cubs in October 2011.
Unlike predecessors Ben Cherington (2011–15) and Dave Dombrowski (2015–19), Bloom didn’t win a championship during his run to offset the team’s disappointing seasons. On his watch, the Red Sox went just 267–262 from the start of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season to the point of his dismissal, becoming more notable for their belt-tightening than for their on-field success. They made the playoffs only in 2021, when they went 92–70, finishing second in the AL East, then beating the Yankees in the Wild Card Game and the Rays in the Division Series before losing to the Astros in the ALCS. They finished last in the division in both 2020 (24–36) and ’22 (78–84) and fired Bloom while tied for fourth with the Yankees at 73–72, with just a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. Read the rest of this entry »
Perhaps it’s too soon to say that Drew Smyly has turned his season around from the bullpen, but he’s certainly on the right track. In 22 starts this year, he pitched to a 5.40 ERA and a 5.32 FIP. Opposing batters slashed .274/.337/.501 against him; in other words, he turned the average hitter into Austin Riley. On the flip side, Smyly has a 3.72 ERA and 3.41 FIP in 19.1 innings of relief. Over the past month, he has looked even better. The small sample size disclaimer applies, but even so, his 2.61 ERA and 2.29 FIP are notable. His opponents are slashing .237/.293/.421; that’s less Riley and more Hunter Renfroe.
As a starter, Smyly wasn’t a big strikeout threat. Yet, as a reliever, he has struck out 27 of the 80 batters he has faced. That’s a 33.8% strikeout rate, or 12.57 K/9. Since his first relief appearance on July 22, he ranks among the top ten qualified NL relievers in both metrics. Even better, he has upped his strikeouts without giving out any more free passes. His 8.0% walk rate was run-of-the-mill for a starting pitcher, but his 7.5% rate is significantly better than average for a bullpen arm.
The pitch-level data helps to explain Smyly’s transformation into a strikeout artist. He’s throwing all three of his pitches with increased velocity and using his best whiff pitch, his curveball, more often. His zone rate is up, as is his chase rate, and as a result, he’s earning more whiffs and first-pitch strikes.
Now that I’ve thoroughly impressed you with tales of Drew Smyly reborn, it’s time to come clean. The veteran southpaw’s performance as a reliever isn’t the real reason I’m writing about him today. As good as he’s been, I need to see more than 11 appearances before I dub him the next Dennis Eckersley. But while I was comparing Smyly’s stats between the bullpen and rotation, one number stood out more than any other — more than the velocity, more than the walks, and even more than the strikeouts. Read the rest of this entry »
Kirby Yates had all but closed the door on the NL East, but he couldn’t quite get the latch to click. Tasked with preserving a 4–1 lead on the road against the Phillies, Yates set down Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott without much undue fuss, but Brandon Marsh just would not go away.
Yates has two punches to throw: a hard-fading four-seam fastball, and a splitter that drops out of the air like a goose that’s run into a power line. Down 2–0 to Marsh, he threw one blow after another: fastball up, splitter down. Marsh kept parrying the ball away — five foul balls in a row. Finally, the 36-year-old righthander ground the ball into his mitt and initiated the herky-jerky delivery that once made him one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, stabbing his arm down behind his right leg before bringing it up and around as he leapt forward off the rubber. Another splitter — and finally, Marsh swung over this one.
Just in case Max Scherzer’s season-ending injury wasn’t enough pitcher-specific tragedy for the week, baseball’s deities have handed down a tale of woe to another of the game’s top pitchers. Sandy Alcantara, last year’s NL Cy Young award winner, may miss the remainder of the season as well. While you could argue that teammate Jesús Luzardo has surpassed Alcantara as a top-of-the-rotation weapon, Alcantara’s history as one of the NL’s top workhorses makes his absence extremely ill-timed for the Marlins, who are currently fighting for their playoff lives against the Diamondbacks, Reds, and Giants.
Alcantara first landed on the IL about a week ago after experiencing discomfort in his forearm. Baseball people take forearm pain as seriously as the denizens of Middle-earth regard inscribed poems on mysterious rings, so Alcantara was shut down for further diagnosis. While he felt healthy enough to play catch on Wednesday, an MRI revealed that his forearm strain stems from a sprained UCL. While the worst-case scenario — namely, a Tommy John surgery that would cost him the rest of this season and likely all of 2024 — does not appear to be the immediate course of action, his 2023 status remains uncertain. When asked specifically about Alcantara’s return, Marlins manager Skip Schumaker avoided being too bullish on the prospects of getting him back this year, saying, “I don’t know. I can’t say yes. I can’t say no. I’ve just gotta be positive. I just gotta keep telling myself day by day and try to take advantage of the opportunity.”
I wouldn’t necessarily characterize Alcantara as having a rough season — I think something like Alek Manoah’s disastrous 2023 better fits that bill — but I can’t deny that it’s been a bit disappointing compared to his 2022. This year, Alcantara has posted his highest ERA as a Marlin, as well as his highest home run allowed rate and lowest strikeout rate. He’s been hit harder than usual, so none of these numbers are pure flukes. But while Statcast’s xERA isn’t happy about his season, ZiPS sees him as have a 3.60 zFIP, reflecting that the declines in his strikeout rate don’t quite match the smaller declines seen in his plate discipline data. It would be hard to say he’s been an ace this year, but the fact that Alcantara is able to eat so many innings has kept his value strong, and he was likely headed for his third-straight season of 200 innings and at least 3 WAR. The Marlins have a young rotation and many of their pitchers have significant injury histories. That makes it extra nice to have one of baseball’s dwindling number of pitchers who can casually go seven innings most nights.
In losing Scherzer, ZiPS estimated that the Rangers lost two percentage points in the playoff race and 0.4 percentage points in World Series probability. ZiPS likes Alcantara slightly better as a pitcher and feels more confident about the replacement options in Texas, so the impact on Miami’s fate is a skosh larger. First, I ran ZiPS assuming that Alcantara would miss the rest of the season:
ZiPS Projected Standings – NL Wild Card (9/14)
Team
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
Philadelphia Phillies
87
75
—
.537
0.0%
92.5%
92.5%
3.0%
Chicago Cubs
85
77
2
.525
8.4%
62.1%
70.5%
2.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks
84
78
3
.519
0.0%
36.1%
36.1%
1.2%
Cincinnati Reds
84
78
3
.519
2.0%
35.7%
37.7%
0.5%
San Francisco Giants
83
79
4
.512
0.0%
34.1%
34.1%
1.8%
Miami Marlins
83
79
4
.512
0.0%
30.1%
30.1%
0.2%
San Diego Padres
78
84
9
.481
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
If we ignore the Padres, who are on the verge of rounding to zero, the Marlins have the toughest road of any of the Wild Card contenders without Alcantara. Now, let’s assume the Marlins get one of those aforementioned Tolkienian rings, use its little-known power to heal elbow and forearm problems, and get Alcantara back into the rotation when he’s eligible on Tuesday:
In a very tight race, getting Alcantara back for a couple starts is still enough to snag the Marlins nearly four percentage points of playoff probability, about twice what a healthy Scherzer would have done for the Rangers. And as importantly, having him for the playoffs would change the top of the rotation enough to give Miami a much better chance of making a deep postseason run.
Naturally, the worst-case scenario would have a significant effect on Alcantara’s long-term outlook:
ZiPS Projection – Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John Surgery)
Year
W
L
S
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2024
0
0
0
0.00
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
—
0.0
2025
7
9
0
3.74
23
23
158.7
147
66
17
40
128
109
2.7
2026
7
8
0
3.85
22
22
152.0
143
65
17
38
120
106
2.4
2027
6
8
0
3.94
21
21
144.0
138
63
16
36
112
104
2.2
While the odds still favor Alcantara returning, if worst came to worst, there would be a lot of concerns. Would Alcantara’s changeup still be as devastating if he came back with a 95 mph fastball instead of a 98 mph one? Would the loss of an entire year reduce the chances of him finally finding the strikeout upside of his solid stuff, as Nathan Eovaldi eventually did? What are the chances he could return and still be one of the few pitchers who’s a good bet to throw 200 innings?
Thankfully, we’re not yet at the point where we have to answer those questions. Mason Miller suffered an UCL sprain in May, but has been able to come back with conservative treatment thanks to the A’s showing an abundance of caution in terms of hurrying him back. But if Alcantara’s 2023 is indeed over, the Marlins face a tougher path to the playoffs, certainly a tougher one than when both ZiPS and the FanGraphs playoff odds had them with an over 70% chance of making the playoffs back in July.
