Archive for Teams

Red Sox Assistant Hitting Coach Dillon Lawson Discusses Swing Decisions

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Good swing decisions are vital to a hitter’s success. Having a finely tuned stroke is important — swing mechanics are diligently honed for a reason — but the ability to consistently attack the right pitches is every bit as valuable. Avoiding chasing while keying in on offerings you can drive greatly enhances your chances of squaring up a baseball.

Dillon Lawson, the new assistant hitting coach of the Boston Red Sox, is a huge proponent of a disciplined approach. The Louisville, Kentucky native views the optimization of swing decisions as an integral part of his job — one that now includes working alongside co-assistant hitting coach Ben Rosenthal and lead hitting coach Peter Fatse.

Prior to joining the Red Sox organization last year as its minor league hitting coordinator, the 39-year-old Lawson spent parts of five seasons with the New York Yankees, first as their minor league hitting coordinator from 2019-2021 and then as their major league hitting coach from 2022 until July 2023. He also tutored minor leaguer hitters for two seasons in the Houston Astros organization, in 2016 and 2018.

Lawson sat down to talk hitting at Fenway Park last weekend.

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David Laurila: There are swing coaches and there are more traditional hitting coaches. Where do you fit into that dynamic?

Dillon Lawson: “Whether it’s what I feel is right, or it’s just a sense of pride, I think we’re all trying to be the best hitting coaches we could possibly be. That means you’re able to help players in whatever way they need to be helped. Sometimes that’s with an approach. Sometimes it’s with confidence. Sometimes it’s a swing change, whether that’s with the load or the path. Some people need more power. Other people need more contact.

“In the minor leagues, with the whole department… let’s say you’ve got 10 hitting coaches all pushing the same direction, trying to help a large group of hitters. Then, here with Boston — same with the Yankees — a group of three [at the big league level] is nice, because the better the player is, the more difficult it is to get them just a half a percent better. Sometimes you have to get creative. Sometimes you have to dig deep into your toolkit. When you have the group all working together, working well together, you can help players more quickly.”

Laurila: Is the swing overemphasized in today’s game? Read the rest of this entry »


What Happened to Brett Baty, Man?

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

After a fairly brisk start, the pace of free agency has bogged down in the new year. The clog in the pipeline is Pete Alonso, the burly first baseman late of the New York Mets. Alonso’s free agent case fascinates me, as he represents a possibly rare intersection of fame and scarcity of skill, making him especially difficult to put a value on.

Given Alonso’s popularity in New York, the shortness of the Mets’ lineup even after signing Juan Soto, and the fact that owner Steve Cohen is so rich the Sumerians might not have invented currency if they’d known he was going to come along, a reunion makes a certain amount of sense. Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Curtis Granderson

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

2025 BBWAA Candidate: Curtis Granderson
Player Pos Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS H HR SB AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
Curtis Granderson CF 47.2 34.7 40.9 1800 344 153 .249/.337/.465 113
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Like Sara Lee, nobody doesn’t like Curtis Granderson. A power-hitting center fielder who reached the 20-homer plateau 10 times, with a high of 43, he was a threat to steal a base during the first decade of his major league career as well. He made three All-Star teams and had a knack for turning up on winners, starting (and starring) for six teams that made the playoffs, including two that reached the World Series, while reaching the postseason twice as a reserve acquired for the stretch run. His penchant for strikeouts made him a somewhat streaky performer, but he earned a reputation within the game for being even-keeled, thoughtful, hard working, and generous — a clubhouse leader and a favorite of teammates, fans, and media. At a time when African-American participation in baseball was (and still is) on the wane, he wore his socks high every day as a tribute to Negro Leagues players, and channeled his charitable efforts towards increasing Black participation in the sport, an effort that has carried over into his retirement. Read the rest of this entry »


The Two Fastballs of Ben Joyce

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

On September 3, 2024, Tommy Edman swung through an 0-2 fastball to end the top of the ninth inning of a game against the Angels. Witness, please.

Back when I was a kid, all anyone talked about was fastball velocity. Mark Wohlers could hit 100, and that was a big deal. Never mind that while velocity is important, it’s arguably the third-most significant tool in a pitcher’s tackle box, after location and movement. But even in the days of fuzzy over-the-air TV and print media, you could quantify velocity and share it simply. It was possible to describe the exquisite movement on Greg Maddux’s low-90s two-seamer, but it was hard and took up a lot of time. I think that’s got something to do with George Will being the way he is. But I digress. Read the rest of this entry »


2025 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Guardians

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cleveland Guardians.

Batters

It’s weird doing the Twins and Guardians back to back, as ZiPS sees a lot of similarities between the two teams. It sees both clubs as having one mid-career future Hall of Famer, a really good outfielder, a bunch of slightly below-average players elsewhere in the lineup, a sneaky good rotation with one starter the system likes quite a bit more than the others, and an ultra-elite bullpen that should compete to be the best in baseball in 2025.

Overall, ZiPS sees the Guardians similarly to how Steamer does, though the shape of the projection is a bit different; ZiPS likes the hitting a good deal less than Steamer does, but is more optimistic than its cyber-rival when it comes to the pitching. Read the rest of this entry »


What’s the Matter With Jack Flaherty?

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

It wasn’t supposed to go down like this. After a sensational contract year — striking out 30% of hitters, posting the lowest walk rate of his career, bedazzling his jewelry cabinet with a World Series ring — Jack Flaherty looked like he was set to make a boatload of money. Days after his 29th birthday, we here at FanGraphs ranked Flaherty eighth among our Top 50 Free Agents, one spot behind his former high school teammate, Max Fried.

Early in December, Fried blew away expectations, inking an eight year, $218 million deal with Yankees. And he wasn’t the only one. Starters from Blake Snell to Luis Severino landed surprisingly lucrative contracts; when Ben Clemens checked in last week on his free agency projections, he noted that he’d under-projected the deals for starting pitchers by about $17 million on average. His takeaway: “Pitchers are getting paid this winter.”

Not all of them, it turns out. As the calendar creeps uncomfortably close to the start of spring training, the youngest available starting pitcher in free agency finds himself without an employer. Every couple weeks, a sparsely sourced rumor about Flaherty bubbles up on MLB Trade Rumors — there’s “mutual interest” with the Orioles, the Tigers have “some interest” in a reunion — but for a large part of the offseason, it’s been silence on the Flaherty beat.

The most substantial of these rumors flowed from the estimable pen of Ken Rosenthal over the weekend. Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported in The Athletic that Flaherty was “open to considering” a “short-term deal” with a “high average annual value.” The hot market for starters and the comparatively cool market for Flaherty suggest that, unlike the rest of the nominal “front-end” starting pitchers at the top of the market, something about him scares teams. All of this leads me to ask: What’s the matter with Jack Flaherty?

One obvious answer is the track record. On some level, teams are going to be somewhat hesitant to commit serious resources to anyone whose last healthy and effective season before 2024 came prior to the pandemic. Rosenthal and Sammon wrote in their report that “teams perhaps want to see Flaherty put together two consecutive seasons of elite performance.” And there are the shoulder issues in 2021 and 2022 that limited him to just 114 1/3 innings over that two-year span.

But I don’t think the track record tells the full story. I think the weak Flaherty market comes down to concerns about his 2024 season itself. Specifically, I think teams are worried about his fastball.

They get there in different ways, but the three pitchers who received $200 million (or thereabouts) contracts this winter all have plus fastballs. Snell throws the prototypical ace four-seamer, averaging 96 mph with 19 inches of induced vertical break. Corbin Burnes’ cutter is one of the signature pitches in baseball, capable of missing bats and neutralizing contact quality against hitters on both sides of the plate. Fried is a bit of a different case — his fastball averaged just 93.9 mph last season — but the shape is totally bizarre relative to his arm angle, resembling Burnes’ cutter from the left side. Fried also throws five other pitches, minimizing the importance of his four-seamer.

Free Agent Fastballs
Pitcher Arm Angle Fastball Velocity (mph) Induced Vertical Break (in.) Horizontal Break (in.)
Blake Snell 59° Four-Seamer 95.9 18.7 5.8 (Arm Side)
Corbin Burnes 44° Cutter 95.3 12.5 2.4 (Glove Side)
Max Fried 48° Four-Seamer 93.9 11.0 0.1 (Glove Side)
Jack Flaherty 28° Four-Seamer 93.3 15.4 4.2 (Arm Side)
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Flaherty’s fastball was the slowest of these four primary offerings, averaging 93.3 mph. In September, that dropped all the way to 92.6 mph. At below-average velocities, even a half-tick of heat loss can be brutal. And while the shape of the fastball is unusual — Flaherty throws from a low slot and gets just four inches of horizontal movement, meaning the pitch unexpectedly cuts in a funky fashion — it doesn’t have the sink that allows Fried’s and Burnes’ fastballs to burrow beneath barrels. Also unlike Fried, Flaherty in effect throws just three pitches: his four-seam fastball and the two breaking balls. (He also flashes a changeup and sinker, but last season he used each of those pitches less than 3% of the time.)

Given the mediocrity of his fastball, Flaherty must aim for fine locations. His success can vary. (I want to caveat the following with the fact that the Dodgers have a strong organizational preference for where their pitchers locate their fastballs, which may or may not be the way Flaherty will pitch with a new team.)

I’ll start with his matchups against left-handed hitters, because these were the majority of hitters that Flaherty faced in 2024. After his trade to the Dodgers in late July, the target for his fastball was almost exclusively set up in one location: Low and away.

A handful of times per start, Flaherty tried to climb the ladder, aiming for swinging strikes at the top of the zone. But in the three starts I watched in full, he almost always targeted his fastballs low and away when facing lefties.

Now, as the plot below of his fastball location to lefties shows, his execution wasn’t perfect. Aiming a baseball is really hard. But I’d venture to say that it was pretty good — he hardly yanked any of his fastballs to the glove side, and most of his misses drifted harmlessly off the plate. In any case, the plot tells a clear story: Flaherty was looking to paint with his fastball rather than challenge hitters over the plate.

This sort of nibbling quality with the fastball is perhaps not what teams want to see from their high-paid free agent starter. Snell, Burnes, and even Fried to some extent can throw fastballs with a large margin for error. Flaherty’s margins are thinner.

This is especially true against right-handed hitters, where his glove-side command is not as good. Against righties, Flaherty also frequently targeted low and away. But as the plot below of fastballs to righties shows, Flaherty doesn’t have the same level of command to the outer edge of this side of the plate. Note the lack of dots in that low-away corner compared to the yanked misses off the plate:

To lefties, Flaherty has the luxury of his misses generally drifting off the plate for balls. When he misses his target to righties, however, the miss tends to drift middle-middle. And when you’re missing middle-middle with 93-mph four-seamers, it’s generally not going to turn out well for you. (This might explain part of Flaherty’s reverse splits last season.)

When executed well, the low-and-away target serves an important function — it sets up his two nasty breaking balls, a harder gyro slider at 85 mph and a loopier knuckle-curve at 78 mph. As this pitch plot shows, these two pitches blend together in a deceptive manner, forcing hitters to guess which one is coming:

Flaherty is at his best when he’s mixing in the low fastballs with the two breakers right below the zone. Check out this two-pitch sequence to Ryan O’Hearn. He nails his 0-0 target to get ahead:

On 0-1 — the perfectly executed fastball fresh in O’Hearn’s head — Flaherty buries a curveball right below the previous location, getting O’Hearn to swing way over the pitch:

After a couple of breaking balls in the dirt, Flaherty punches O’Hearn out on a high fastball. With hitters laser-focused on the bottom of the strike zone, that occasional late-count high heater leads to a ton of whiffs. It’s a pretty combo when it works.

But if Flaherty falls behind, there just isn’t a great option to induce weak contact. When the early-count fastball execution is less than perfect, he tends to back himself into a corner. And when he’s forced to come over to the plate with the heater, he can be vulnerable to the long ball. Just ask O’Hearn:

If Flaherty’s fastball velocity remains in that 92-93 range, it will likely be a tradeoff between giving up a few too many walks due to nibbling (as he did early in his career) or risking extra-base damage by coming over the plate.

So, yes, there are reasons to be concerned about Flaherty. But overly fixating on his fastball risks ignoring his upside.

That two-breaking-ball attack works against both righties and lefties; when he gets ahead in the count, there’s almost nobody better. That strikeout rate is no illusion. So the question becomes: How can Flaherty reliably get ahead of hitters?

One option is pitching backwards. Flaherty’s fastball usage in 0-0 counts is roughly 50%. (On the plot below, red represents the four-seamer, gold represents the slider, and blue represents the curveball.) Given the frequency of his slider usage in 3-1 and 3-2 counts (50% and 44.8%, respectively) it follows that he has the confidence to throw it for a strike when he needs it. Mixing in more breaking balls in early counts could take some pressure off the four-seamer.

Credit: Baseball Savant

Flaherty could also use his sinker more often. If his problem at present is mostly with right-handed hitters, the sinker could give him a weak-contact option and a pitch that he feels comfortable throwing on the inner-half of the plate. Notably, the sinker grades out fine by stuff models — PitchingBot, for example, gives it a 56 on the 20-80 scale.

It’s also not impossible that some of his velocity could return. Maybe he no longer can regularly dial up 95-96 mph as he did in his early 20s, but it’s also possible that his late-season swoon can be chalked up to his posting his highest innings total in five years. In the range of velocity that he sat in the later months of the season, every half-tick is crucial, but if he can consistently live at 93-94 mph with the ability to touch 96, that softens many of the concerns.

Concluding this article definitively is challenging. On the one hand, the skittishness of the clubs is perfectly understandable. But plenty of contending teams need starting pitching, and an industry-wide fear of Flaherty’s weaknesses could cost clubs their chance to add someone who just performed like one of the best hurlers in the game.


Corbin Carroll Is Even Better Than Advertised

Rob Schumacher/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Not every out is created equal. Take this fly out from Corbin Carroll, for example:

A lot of things can happen when you make an out with the bases loaded. You could strike out, leaving every runner in place. You could hit into a double play, an inning-ending one in this case. You could ground out some other way, or hit an infield fly. But Carroll’s here was the most valuable imaginable; with one out, he advanced every single runner, including the runner who scored from third.

Mathematically speaking, you can think of it this way. The average out that took place with the bases loaded and one out lowered the team’s run expectancy by a massive 0.61 runs in 2024. That’s because tons of these outs were either strikeouts (bad, runner on third doesn’t score) or double plays (bad, inning ends). But Carroll’s fly out was far better than that. It actually increased the run expectancy by a hair; driving the lead runner home and moving the trail runners up a base is exquisitely valuable.

That’s not the only way this could have gone. Consider a similar situation, a groundout from Aaron Judge:

Like Carroll, Judge batted with a runner on third and fewer than two outs. In this situation, the average out is bad, lowering run expectancy by 0.514 runs. But Judge’s was obviously worse. It cost the Yankees all the expected runs they had left in the inning, naturally, which added up to just a bit more than 1.15. Read the rest of this entry »


2025 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

The Twins entered last September as a second-place team with a 92% chance to make the playoffs, according to ZiPS. But then, after going 9-18 that month, they finished fourth in the AL Central and fell short of the postseason. When you look at it that way, their 2024 campaign was certainly a disappointment. However, for as bad things ended, the Twins still posted a winning record (82-80) for the second consecutive year, and none of their problems down the stretch last year suggest there’s anything fundamentally broken with the organization. I mean, sure, Twins fans surely would want them to spend more aggressively, but that’s a gripe they share with the fans of the other AL Central teams.

As it turned out, Carlos Correa shockingly didn’t suddenly forget how to play baseball in 2023; he had terrific 2024 season that hopefully wiped some memories clean. One potential concern is his plantar fascitis – which he’s had in both heels at times over the last 18 months – but with a normal offseason of rest, he should begin this season on fairly strong footing, and ZiPS projects him to have a fairly typical Correa campaign.

Byron Buxton had a similarly solid comeback season. He posted a 142 wRC+, and after the Twins used him exclusively at DH in 2023 in an unsuccessful attempt to keep him healthy, he returned to center field and played above-average defense. I’d be shocked if Buxton made the 567 plate appearances that Depth Charts is projecting for him right now – he’s never done that in the majors – but when he’s playing, he remains a tantalizing talent. Given his history, I would assume the Twins are expecting to have him for about 90-100 games.

The rest of the offense is a great deal less exciting. Royce Lewis still has some upside, but he has a long injury history of his own, and his offense was fairly ordinary last year after his stunning 2023 output. Although he’s probably nearing his ceiling, right fielder Matt Wallner projects to be solidly above average over the next few years, and the catching tandem of Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez is a good one. Elsewhere, though, this lineup feels more patchwork; it’s not really a giant mess, but you kind of wish it had a bit more thump.

There are some lesser projections of interest here. ZiPS isn’t high on Brooks Lee, but it does think that Edouard Julien deserves a chance to avenge his weak 2024, and there’s a real case for promoting Luke Keaschall quickly if he continues to hit in the high minors. It would be nice to see the team get one more bat in free agency, either as an upgrade over Trevor Larnach or to beef up its projected production at DH.

ZiPS expects that it’ll take a few years for Walker Jenkins to really develop his power, but it likes the aforementioned Keaschall and center field prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez.

Pitchers

Pitching-wise, the Twins had an odd season. They had a massive difference between their ERA (4.26) and FIP (3.84), finishing 21st in the former but a much more respectable seventh in the latter stat. And they did that with a rather average defense, so you can’t blame the glove work for that. The good thing is that by and large, the current pitchers on the roster don’t have a lengthy history of falling short of their FIP, which suggests that some of the weaker-than-expected performances were more blips than true concerns.

One thing that hurt the rotation wasn’t so much the primary members but some really terrible performances from the Plan B gang. Chris Paddack and David Festa drastically underperformed their peripheral numbers, and fill-ins like Louie Varland and Zebby Matthews were downright dreadful. ZiPS expects a lot more from all four pitchers, especially Matthews, and overall, it projects the rotation to be somewhere between sixth and 10th in baseball in WAR. The 2.63 HR/9 that Matthews allowed last year may look especially bad, but as I warn people, don’t go nuts over crazy short-term home run stats. A shocking number of people yelled at me in 2019 about a positive Corbin Burnes projection because of the 17 homers he allowed over 49 innings in 2019. ZiPS has little to complain about at the top of the rotation, with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober, though López is the only one of the trio that ZiPS projects to have a high long-term ceiling. If ZiPS is right, the Twins are about set here, with a strong starting five and good depth behind them.

The Twins had the second-best bullpen in the American League last year by WAR (5.9), and the good news for Minnesota fans is that the bullpen should remain terrific in 2025. In fact, though it’s certainly not an official projection yet, ZiPS believes at this moment that the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball. Jhoan Duran ought to have a better season in 2025, and now that the Twins have announced that Griffin Jax won’t be moved back to the rotation in 2025, the two of them will form a deadly one-two late-inning punch. Brock Stewart is also projected to have a better season – though his sore shoulder will need to cooperate – and aside from Jorge Alcala and Michael Tonkin, ZiPS projects every significant Minnesota reliever to have an ERA under 4.00. The Twins don’t really need to make any additions here, either. If they are going to make more moves, they should target offensive upgrades.

This is a solidly built team that is deep enough to have a pretty high floor. That said, the Twins have enough weaknesses that ZiPS puts them in the 85-88 win range right now. The AL Central projects to be one of the closer divisions in baseball, and the Twins likely will still be playing meaningful games in September.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Carlos Correa R 30 SS 495 434 65 118 24 1 18 64 53 95 0 0
Byron Buxton R 31 CF 377 340 58 84 22 2 19 55 27 106 6 1
Matt Wallner L 27 RF 561 486 67 117 29 3 23 81 56 194 5 1
Edouard Julien L 26 2B 539 457 67 107 21 1 14 57 76 174 10 1
Ryan Jeffers R 28 C 410 361 48 85 18 1 17 55 34 96 2 0
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. L 28 CF 495 451 53 113 19 6 9 54 34 133 22 5
Royce Lewis R 26 3B 384 349 52 86 18 1 16 58 30 93 5 2
Emmanuel Rodriguez L 22 CF 338 280 54 59 14 4 10 40 54 122 7 3
Payton Eeles L 25 2B 475 408 73 102 20 6 4 56 42 86 23 7
Jose Miranda R 27 3B 483 446 50 119 26 2 12 59 27 77 2 1
Mickey Gasper B 29 1B 360 309 45 79 18 1 7 44 40 59 3 1
Luke Keaschall R 22 DH 451 390 65 99 21 1 11 60 44 99 12 4
Anthony Prato R 27 3B 450 383 54 87 22 5 4 45 53 114 8 3
Jair Camargo R 25 C 358 330 37 75 14 1 12 45 21 128 2 1
Willi Castro B 28 SS 546 487 76 119 24 4 12 56 39 128 16 6
Brooks Lee B 24 SS 428 395 44 97 23 1 9 50 29 72 4 1
Diego Castillo R 27 3B 482 426 56 103 24 1 7 49 49 87 7 4
Ricardo Olivar R 23 C 431 384 53 92 21 3 9 50 40 113 4 1
Yunior Severino B 25 1B 524 470 53 109 21 2 16 65 46 171 2 1
Trevor Larnach L 28 DH 424 371 55 89 19 1 14 55 45 115 3 1
Tanner Morris L 27 3B 355 310 36 73 13 1 3 31 40 80 2 1
Wynton Bernard R 34 RF 389 362 48 92 18 3 6 41 22 82 19 3
Christian Vázquez R 34 C 326 302 30 70 13 0 5 30 18 67 2 1
Michael Helman R 29 SS 391 356 50 81 18 2 10 46 29 98 11 2
Austin Martin R 26 CF 395 337 50 81 17 2 3 37 42 70 13 4
Manuel Margot R 30 LF 362 332 41 88 18 2 6 38 24 59 7 2
Alex Kirilloff L 27 LF 304 272 36 69 14 2 10 40 24 75 1 0
Carson McCusker R 27 RF 471 433 53 101 22 3 16 64 31 173 3 4
Danny De Andrade R 21 SS 353 318 39 66 15 1 7 40 22 89 8 2
Mike Ford L 32 DH 321 284 32 63 11 1 12 41 32 78 1 0
Walker Jenkins L 20 DH 357 320 41 78 16 4 6 37 33 60 8 2
Will Holland R 27 SS 323 285 40 60 13 3 6 34 28 102 14 4
Andrew Cossetti R 25 C 375 329 35 61 18 3 8 40 35 129 2 1
Noah Cardenas R 25 C 349 302 30 56 14 0 4 32 38 94 3 3
Jeferson Morales R 26 LF 395 355 41 82 20 2 8 47 28 88 4 2
Kaelen Culpepper R 22 SS 118 108 15 22 3 1 2 13 8 21 2 1
Rylan Bannon R 29 SS 469 401 51 76 16 1 12 49 60 135 6 3
Rubel Cespedes L 24 3B 455 424 42 96 20 2 9 47 27 122 2 1
Tanner Schobel R 24 3B 515 465 55 96 16 4 9 47 43 140 8 4
Allan Cerda R 25 CF 346 303 36 54 13 2 11 41 35 133 2 3
Kala’i Rosario R 22 RF 417 374 44 81 21 2 12 49 38 151 2 0
Dalton Shuffield R 26 CF 264 241 30 52 9 2 5 26 20 90 7 2
Nate Baez R 24 C 291 263 29 55 12 1 8 34 22 106 0 0
Rayne Doncon R 21 SS 449 413 47 84 21 2 10 45 30 124 3 2
Nick Lucky L 25 SS 226 199 23 34 5 2 5 25 19 101 7 1
Patrick Winkel L 25 C 313 289 23 62 14 0 5 30 22 102 0 0
Alerick Soularie R 25 LF 270 238 35 46 8 2 5 26 23 85 11 4
Gabriel Gonzalez R 21 RF 433 399 42 93 19 2 8 52 21 83 4 2
Tyler Dearden L 26 RF 293 265 28 61 13 1 5 29 22 90 0 0
Jake Rucker R 25 2B 505 463 47 105 21 3 7 51 30 116 4 5
Rixon Wingrove L 25 1B 358 326 30 67 14 1 11 43 25 119 1 1
Alex Isola R 26 LF 390 351 36 76 14 0 9 40 34 94 2 1
Willie Joe Garry Jr. L 25 CF 234 211 23 40 8 3 3 21 16 90 8 2
Kyle Hess L 26 CF 236 219 21 44 10 3 3 25 12 66 5 3
Ben Ross R 24 SS 466 426 46 84 19 1 11 47 33 160 10 4
Poncho Ruiz R 23 C 387 348 31 68 18 0 4 34 32 92 1 1
Jorel Ortega R 24 SS 472 426 50 86 20 3 9 48 38 144 8 5
Agustin Ruiz L 25 RF 373 335 39 65 15 2 9 43 26 116 1 2
Dillon Tatum R 25 C 184 162 15 24 6 0 3 16 17 87 0 1
Kyler Fedko R 25 RF 343 303 33 62 13 1 4 31 34 85 4 3
Aaron Sabato R 26 1B 395 349 36 61 15 0 10 41 39 150 3 1
Jose Salas B 22 CF 395 361 37 71 15 2 3 34 19 136 10 5
Misael Urbina R 23 LF 397 355 38 66 18 2 4 32 36 127 6 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA 3YOPS+ RC
Carlos Correa 495 .272 .354 .456 126 .184 .311 2 3.7 .349 119 70
Byron Buxton 377 .247 .316 .492 123 .244 .303 4 2.7 .344 119 54
Matt Wallner 561 .241 .339 .455 121 .214 .350 1 2.6 .344 120 76
Edouard Julien 539 .234 .347 .377 104 .142 .346 -3 2.2 .323 105 62
Ryan Jeffers 410 .235 .316 .432 108 .197 .274 -1 2.2 .325 105 50
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 495 .251 .309 .379 93 .129 .337 6 2.0 .301 92 59
Royce Lewis 384 .247 .307 .441 108 .195 .292 3 1.8 .322 110 49
Emmanuel Rodriguez 338 .211 .343 .397 108 .186 .332 1 1.7 .327 116 41
Payton Eeles 475 .250 .345 .358 99 .108 .308 -3 1.6 .314 99 58
Jose Miranda 483 .267 .317 .415 104 .148 .300 -4 1.4 .317 102 60
Mickey Gasper 360 .256 .356 .389 110 .133 .297 3 1.3 .331 109 44
Luke Keaschall 451 .254 .348 .398 110 .144 .315 0 1.3 .330 112 58
Anthony Prato 450 .227 .333 .342 91 .115 .313 0 1.3 .304 90 46
Jair Camargo 358 .227 .282 .385 86 .157 .331 3 1.2 .289 88 37
Willi Castro 546 .244 .318 .384 97 .140 .308 -10 1.1 .309 95 65
Brooks Lee 428 .245 .297 .377 88 .132 .280 0 1.1 .292 92 45
Diego Castillo 482 .242 .322 .352 90 .110 .289 0 1.0 .300 91 51
Ricardo Olivar 431 .240 .320 .381 97 .141 .317 -8 1.0 .309 101 48
Yunior Severino 524 .232 .305 .388 94 .155 .329 6 0.9 .303 97 56
Trevor Larnach 424 .240 .325 .410 106 .170 .310 0 0.9 .321 105 50
Tanner Morris 355 .236 .327 .313 82 .077 .309 3 0.9 .291 85 33
Wynton Bernard 389 .254 .301 .370 88 .116 .314 5 0.8 .294 83 45
Christian Vázquez 326 .232 .275 .325 68 .093 .283 7 0.8 .264 66 28
Michael Helman 391 .228 .292 .374 86 .146 .286 -3 0.8 .291 86 42
Austin Martin 395 .240 .343 .329 91 .089 .295 -5 0.7 .305 93 42
Manuel Margot 362 .265 .318 .386 98 .121 .308 1 0.7 .308 93 43
Alex Kirilloff 304 .253 .322 .429 110 .176 .315 -2 0.6 .325 106 38
Carson McCusker 471 .233 .291 .409 94 .176 .349 1 0.5 .303 96 54
Danny De Andrade 353 .208 .278 .327 70 .120 .266 1 0.4 .269 77 31
Mike Ford 321 .222 .308 .394 96 .173 .263 0 0.3 .308 91 35
Walker Jenkins 357 .244 .317 .375 94 .131 .284 0 0.3 .304 96 41
Will Holland 323 .211 .298 .341 80 .130 .306 -5 0.3 .285 80 33
Andrew Cossetti 375 .186 .280 .332 72 .146 .276 -2 0.3 .273 79 31
Noah Cardenas 349 .186 .292 .272 61 .086 .255 2 0.2 .261 64 26
Jeferson Morales 395 .231 .304 .366 88 .135 .286 -1 0.0 .295 90 41
Kaelen Culpepper 118 .204 .271 .306 62 .102 .235 0 0.0 .258 76 10
Rylan Bannon 469 .189 .301 .324 76 .135 .252 -7 0.0 .282 77 42
Rubel Cespedes 455 .226 .275 .347 74 .120 .297 0 0.0 .272 78 41
Tanner Schobel 515 .207 .276 .316 67 .110 .275 3 0.0 .264 69 44
Allan Cerda 346 .178 .277 .343 74 .165 .270 -2 -0.1 .277 78 30
Kala’i Rosario 417 .216 .293 .379 88 .163 .327 -3 -0.1 .295 94 42
Dalton Shuffield 264 .215 .277 .331 71 .116 .321 -2 -0.1 .269 72 24
Nate Baez 291 .209 .282 .354 78 .145 .316 -8 -0.2 .281 83 26
Rayne Doncon 449 .204 .263 .337 68 .133 .266 -3 -0.3 .263 76 38
Nick Lucky 226 .171 .264 .292 57 .121 .312 -3 -0.4 .252 63 17
Patrick Winkel 313 .215 .272 .315 65 .101 .314 -5 -0.5 .261 70 25
Alerick Soularie 270 .194 .273 .307 64 .114 .278 1 -0.5 .260 67 24
Gabriel Gonzalez 433 .233 .286 .350 78 .118 .276 -1 -0.5 .280 85 42
Tyler Dearden 293 .231 .297 .344 80 .113 .330 -3 -0.6 .283 81 27
Jake Rucker 505 .227 .282 .331 72 .104 .289 -4 -0.6 .270 75 46
Rixon Wingrove 358 .206 .274 .356 76 .150 .286 0 -0.6 .277 77 32
Alex Isola 390 .217 .290 .334 75 .117 .271 -2 -0.7 .277 77 35
Willie Joe Garry Jr. 234 .190 .256 .299 56 .109 .314 -3 -0.7 .245 66 18
Kyle Hess 236 .201 .254 .315 59 .114 .273 -3 -0.7 .249 63 20
Ben Ross 466 .197 .258 .324 63 .127 .287 -6 -0.8 .257 67 39
Poncho Ruiz 387 .195 .269 .282 56 .086 .254 -5 -0.9 .249 61 27
Jorel Ortega 472 .202 .276 .327 69 .125 .282 -11 -0.9 .268 75 42
Agustin Ruiz 373 .194 .268 .331 68 .137 .267 -1 -1.0 .265 73 31
Dillon Tatum 184 .148 .245 .241 38 .093 .291 -5 -1.1 .225 42 10
Kyler Fedko 343 .204 .289 .294 65 .089 .271 -3 -1.1 .264 70 28
Aaron Sabato 395 .175 .266 .304 60 .129 .270 1 -1.2 .256 63 29
Jose Salas 395 .197 .246 .274 47 .078 .306 0 -1.3 .233 54 29
Misael Urbina 397 .186 .265 .282 55 .096 .277 1 -1.4 .247 59 29

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Carlos Correa Troy Tulowitzki Xander Bogaerts Jose Vidro
Byron Buxton Alfonso Soriano Glenallen Hill Scott Hairston
Matt Wallner Mike Young John Jaha Ty Gainey
Edouard Julien Jack Hannahan Marlan Coughtry Colin Walsh
Ryan Jeffers Jake Early Chris Hoiles Rich Gedman
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Jeff Stone Robert Stotsky Cecil Espy
Royce Lewis Gene Freese Scott Brosius Travis Jackson
Emmanuel Rodriguez Billy Grabarkewitz Derek Fisher Scott Reid
Payton Eeles Callix Crabbe Brian Roberts Ryan Freel
Jose Miranda Jack Kubiszyn Victor Rodríguez Rich Dauer
Mickey Gasper Dave Bergman Dion James Jon Zuber
Luke Keaschall Gerald Perry Brian Giles Tito Francona
Anthony Prato Lance Blankenship Don Eaddy Robert Hewes
Jair Camargo Dick Brown Mike Colbern Max Stassi
Willi Castro Cliff Pennington Freddie Patek Felipe Lopez
Brooks Lee Ed Crosby Domingo Leyba Thomas Stedman
Diego Castillo Christian Lopes Larry Fobbs Dan Monzon
Ricardo Olivar Aldo Pecorilli Duane Gustavson Joe Durso
Yunior Severino Ron Allen John Herrnstein Brock Peterson
Trevor Larnach Travis Snider Dan Duran Chris Parmelee
Tanner Morris Rich Paz Kevin Riggs Todd Crosby
Wynton Bernard Pete Fox Rajai Davis Calvin Murray
Christian Vázquez Birdie Tebbetts John Flaherty Dax Norris
Michael Helman Chris Basak Tom Brookens Benji Gil
Austin Martin Robert Perry J.T. Bruett Cal Stevenson
Manuel Margot Bobby Moore Timo Perez Miguel Cairo
Alex Kirilloff Len Gabrielson Al Yates Travis Buck
Carson McCusker Dick Greco Carlos Peguero Rolando Roomes
Danny De Andrade Fausto Solano Jonathan Mota Nick Ahmed
Mike Ford Carmelo Martinez Jim Fregosi Razor Shines
Walker Jenkins Jorge Cortes August Suhr Don Lyons
Will Holland Jimmy Sexton Ray-Patrick Didder Connor Kopach
Andrew Cossetti Michael Reynolds Herbert Orensky Raymond Patterson
Noah Cardenas Dave Huppert Jamie Pogue Charles Julian
Jeferson Morales Tyler Henley Joe Caruso Mitch Haniger
Kaelen Culpepper Rodrigo Ayarza Aaron Olivas Jonny Tucker
Rylan Bannon Eddie Joost Lyn Lary George Foussianes
Rubel Cespedes Scott Hodges Tye Waller Ron Slocum
Tanner Schobel David Nichols Pepper Thomas Derrik Gibson
Allan Cerda Don Young Brandon Boggs Dan Cataline
Kala’i Rosario Jay Porter Richard Guerra John Donati
Dalton Shuffield Anthony Vega Ruben Rodriguez Dorian Speed
Nate Baez Larry Howard David Lyon Tom Heierle
Rayne Doncon Jorge Velandia Raul Tablado Dennis Reeve
Nick Lucky Kevin Faircloth R.D. Long Jamie Doughty
Patrick Winkel Al Corbeil Dan Conway Cameron Rupp
Alerick Soularie Roy Marsh Dennis Malave Jayson Bass
Gabriel Gonzalez Ed Larregui Terry Hankins Clifton Wilder
Tyler Dearden Brad Downing Kyle Day Rudy Jaramillo
Jake Rucker Hagan Andersen Phil Gosselin Brian Friday
Rixon Wingrove Steven Caseres Brandon Decker John Toale
Alex Isola Jack McGowan Sheldon Brodsky Brian Hartsock
Willie Joe Garry Jr. Dorian Speed Anthony Vega Todd Hobson
Kyle Hess Jay Simpson Josh Womack Elanis Westbrooks
Ben Ross Donaldo Mendez Pat Valaika Jeter Downs
Poncho Ruiz John Posey Sal Butera Joe Goddard
Jorel Ortega Edwin Maysonet Ryan Klosterman Ryan Lane
Agustin Ruiz Ben Johnson Zach Cone Aaron Iatarola
Dillon Tatum Louis Coccia Johnny Grimes Matt Allen
Kyler Fedko Brian Saltzgaber Mel Barrow Nick Podkul
Aaron Sabato Stanley Patykula Douglas Slettvet Rock Shoulders
Jose Salas Marten Gasparini Lee May Shomari Beverly
Misael Urbina Doug Carpenter Odis McCowan James Broughton

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Carlos Correa .297 .383 .516 147 4.9 .245 .327 .412 106 2.5
Byron Buxton .274 .338 .558 145 3.8 .219 .285 .420 96 1.5
Matt Wallner .268 .364 .513 144 4.2 .210 .314 .399 101 1.3
Edouard Julien .261 .374 .421 122 3.3 .208 .320 .334 85 0.9
Ryan Jeffers .264 .345 .490 129 3.2 .211 .293 .374 89 1.3
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. .278 .330 .422 110 3.1 .225 .279 .332 75 0.9
Royce Lewis .270 .333 .495 127 2.8 .226 .285 .393 90 1.0
Emmanuel Rodriguez .242 .376 .462 130 2.6 .179 .312 .334 86 0.8
Payton Eeles .276 .371 .410 118 2.7 .221 .320 .315 80 0.5
Jose Miranda .296 .348 .465 124 2.6 .240 .292 .374 85 0.3
Mickey Gasper .282 .379 .435 128 2.1 .229 .328 .345 92 0.5
Luke Keaschall .284 .375 .454 133 2.4 .230 .322 .355 92 0.4
Anthony Prato .251 .359 .390 110 2.3 .201 .306 .296 72 0.3
Jair Camargo .254 .310 .436 106 2.1 .196 .254 .334 66 0.3
Willi Castro .268 .340 .431 115 2.3 .216 .291 .338 79 -0.1
Brooks Lee .273 .326 .425 108 2.1 .219 .270 .332 69 0.1
Diego Castillo .267 .349 .392 108 2.0 .215 .294 .303 71 -0.1
Ricardo Olivar .268 .347 .433 118 2.1 .212 .292 .332 78 -0.1
Yunior Severino .258 .329 .436 113 2.2 .203 .280 .342 74 -0.4
Trevor Larnach .263 .347 .467 125 1.9 .213 .304 .363 89 -0.1
Tanner Morris .261 .355 .351 99 1.5 .205 .298 .270 63 0.0
Wynton Bernard .283 .332 .420 109 1.9 .222 .271 .326 67 -0.1
Christian Vázquez .260 .304 .366 89 1.6 .202 .251 .281 52 0.2
Michael Helman .251 .323 .433 109 1.9 .199 .267 .329 68 -0.1
Austin Martin .265 .370 .369 108 1.5 .213 .319 .290 73 -0.2
Manuel Margot .297 .347 .427 117 1.5 .240 .290 .343 79 -0.2
Alex Kirilloff .285 .352 .485 131 1.4 .228 .294 .384 91 -0.1
Carson McCusker .262 .319 .461 116 1.7 .201 .261 .351 70 -0.8
Danny De Andrade .237 .310 .388 92 1.4 .180 .255 .276 50 -0.4
Mike Ford .246 .334 .444 117 1.1 .192 .280 .338 74 -0.6
Walker Jenkins .273 .343 .427 116 1.2 .216 .288 .333 77 -0.5
Will Holland .238 .325 .394 101 1.1 .181 .271 .296 59 -0.5
Andrew Cossetti .211 .309 .392 95 1.3 .154 .251 .287 53 -0.6
Noah Cardenas .214 .325 .322 84 1.1 .154 .264 .230 43 -0.6
Jeferson Morales .258 .332 .416 108 1.0 .210 .278 .323 71 -0.8
Kaelen Culpepper .236 .303 .365 85 0.3 .176 .243 .254 40 -0.3
Rylan Bannon .216 .325 .376 95 1.1 .160 .273 .281 56 -1.2
Rubel Cespedes .256 .305 .390 93 1.0 .203 .247 .306 57 -1.0
Tanner Schobel .232 .302 .360 85 1.1 .181 .252 .276 50 -1.1
Allan Cerda .205 .303 .391 91 0.7 .151 .252 .283 52 -0.9
Kala’i Rosario .244 .320 .425 109 0.9 .189 .263 .327 66 -1.2
Dalton Shuffield .242 .306 .384 90 0.5 .185 .249 .291 52 -0.8
Nate Baez .239 .311 .405 98 0.5 .179 .250 .300 55 -1.1
Rayne Doncon .233 .294 .393 91 1.0 .177 .236 .288 50 -1.3
Nick Lucky .203 .299 .359 83 0.3 .143 .237 .234 36 -0.9
Patrick Winkel .244 .303 .359 85 0.3 .183 .242 .270 45 -1.3
Alerick Soularie .222 .303 .357 83 0.2 .168 .242 .271 47 -1.1
Gabriel Gonzalez .263 .315 .405 99 0.7 .208 .258 .301 56 -1.7
Tyler Dearden .255 .325 .386 96 0.0 .200 .268 .301 60 -1.3
Jake Rucker .255 .312 .369 89 0.6 .205 .260 .289 55 -1.6
Rixon Wingrove .231 .300 .396 95 0.3 .182 .249 .306 58 -1.4
Alex Isola .244 .317 .383 96 0.3 .192 .260 .287 57 -1.6
Willie Joe Garry Jr. .221 .287 .351 78 -0.1 .161 .225 .249 35 -1.3
Kyle Hess .228 .282 .364 79 -0.2 .175 .228 .270 40 -1.3
Ben Ross .222 .283 .371 82 0.3 .171 .233 .278 45 -1.9
Poncho Ruiz .226 .296 .326 72 -0.1 .171 .242 .245 39 -1.7
Jorel Ortega .225 .299 .373 88 0.2 .176 .249 .284 52 -1.9
Agustin Ruiz .219 .293 .376 86 -0.2 .168 .242 .285 49 -1.9
Dillon Tatum .180 .279 .295 61 -0.6 .118 .215 .190 17 -1.6
Kyler Fedko .228 .317 .332 83 -0.3 .179 .262 .255 48 -1.9
Aaron Sabato .207 .294 .355 81 -0.1 .150 .236 .258 41 -2.1
Jose Salas .225 .272 .314 65 -0.4 .170 .220 .237 30 -2.1
Misael Urbina .212 .292 .317 72 -0.5 .162 .238 .240 37 -2.2

Batters – Platoon Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Carlos Correa .276 .366 .455 .270 .348 .457
Byron Buxton .255 .325 .520 .244 .312 .479
Matt Wallner .228 .326 .420 .247 .345 .472
Edouard Julien .229 .335 .357 .237 .352 .385
Ryan Jeffers .248 .336 .453 .230 .307 .422
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. .240 .304 .349 .256 .311 .393
Royce Lewis .248 .317 .434 .246 .302 .445
Emmanuel Rodriguez .207 .330 .390 .212 .349 .399
Payton Eeles .236 .333 .333 .256 .350 .368
Jose Miranda .274 .324 .439 .263 .313 .401
Mickey Gasper .255 .345 .378 .256 .360 .393
Luke Keaschall .261 .355 .420 .251 .345 .387
Anthony Prato .239 .342 .370 .220 .329 .327
Jair Camargo .231 .282 .397 .225 .282 .378
Willi Castro .245 .309 .395 .244 .321 .379
Brooks Lee .250 .290 .388 .244 .299 .373
Diego Castillo .252 .335 .387 .236 .314 .331
Ricardo Olivar .250 .338 .400 .235 .312 .371
Yunior Severino .236 .303 .404 .230 .306 .379
Trevor Larnach .226 .298 .366 .245 .334 .424
Tanner Morris .225 .310 .294 .240 .335 .322
Wynton Bernard .264 .311 .400 .248 .294 .351
Christian Vázquez .230 .277 .345 .233 .274 .316
Michael Helman .226 .292 .387 .229 .291 .363
Austin Martin .244 .358 .339 .238 .335 .324
Manuel Margot .282 .339 .418 .257 .307 .369
Alex Kirilloff .247 .317 .411 .256 .324 .437
Carson McCusker .239 .299 .418 .231 .287 .405
Danny De Andrade .210 .276 .343 .207 .278 .319
Mike Ford .213 .300 .363 .225 .312 .407
Walker Jenkins .235 .305 .341 .247 .321 .387
Will Holland .219 .308 .343 .206 .291 .339
Andrew Cossetti .190 .287 .330 .183 .277 .332
Noah Cardenas .190 .308 .270 .183 .284 .272
Jeferson Morales .232 .307 .376 .230 .302 .361
Kaelen Culpepper .222 .282 .333 .194 .266 .292
Rylan Bannon .193 .311 .333 .187 .295 .319
Rubel Cespedes .218 .263 .306 .230 .280 .363
Tanner Schobel .215 .296 .333 .203 .267 .309
Allan Cerda .187 .291 .374 .172 .268 .322
Kala’i Rosario .221 .304 .393 .214 .287 .373
Dalton Shuffield .218 .282 .359 .215 .275 .319
Nate Baez .207 .281 .356 .210 .282 .352
Rayne Doncon .213 .275 .368 .199 .257 .321
Nick Lucky .155 .246 .259 .177 .270 .305
Patrick Winkel .198 .253 .272 .221 .279 .332
Alerick Soularie .203 .289 .342 .189 .266 .289
Gabriel Gonzalez .241 .291 .372 .229 .284 .340
Tyler Dearden .217 .283 .301 .236 .303 .363
Jake Rucker .231 .292 .333 .225 .277 .329
Rixon Wingrove .191 .258 .292 .211 .280 .380
Alex Isola .228 .309 .366 .211 .279 .316
Willie Joe Garry Jr. .182 .239 .288 .193 .263 .303
Kyle Hess .190 .250 .317 .205 .256 .314
Ben Ross .200 .268 .320 .196 .253 .326
Poncho Ruiz .200 .280 .286 .193 .264 .280
Jorel Ortega .206 .279 .341 .200 .274 .320
Agustin Ruiz .190 .265 .314 .196 .270 .339
Dillon Tatum .145 .254 .236 .150 .240 .243
Kyler Fedko .205 .297 .304 .204 .284 .288
Aaron Sabato .176 .278 .320 .174 .259 .295
Jose Salas .200 .250 .283 .195 .244 .270
Misael Urbina .189 .273 .307 .184 .261 .268

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Pablo López R 29 12 9 3.78 30 30 174.0 159 73 22 43 182
Bailey Ober R 29 9 9 3.91 28 28 156.3 139 68 24 37 160
Joe Ryan R 29 9 7 3.77 24 24 136.0 117 57 18 31 145
Jhoan Duran R 27 9 3 2.36 59 0 61.0 47 16 3 18 76
Zebby Matthews R 25 7 6 4.05 25 24 122.3 124 55 18 25 115
Griffin Jax R 30 7 4 3.21 60 3 73.0 59 26 8 20 87
David Festa R 25 6 6 4.08 25 24 108.0 99 49 13 41 114
Louie Varland R 27 8 8 4.32 29 22 127.0 126 61 17 38 119
Simeon Woods Richardson R 24 5 6 4.36 28 27 128.0 124 62 16 50 111
Andrew Morris R 23 7 7 4.34 24 22 116.0 121 56 15 32 84
Randy Dobnak R 30 7 8 4.50 28 21 116.0 122 58 14 46 91
Travis Adams R 25 6 7 4.54 24 21 107.0 112 54 14 35 81
Cole Sands R 27 5 4 3.62 47 4 69.7 61 28 8 22 77
Chris Paddack R 29 4 3 4.32 15 15 75.0 78 36 10 20 70
C.J. Culpepper R 23 4 5 4.46 23 22 78.7 78 39 9 28 64
Darren McCaughan R 29 4 6 4.69 25 21 119.0 127 62 17 33 90
Pierson Ohl R 25 5 7 4.64 21 16 97.0 109 50 15 19 62
Cole Irvin L 31 6 8 4.74 27 19 117.7 130 62 19 29 83
Marco Raya R 22 3 4 4.70 28 28 97.7 97 51 13 41 83
Brent Headrick L 27 4 4 4.38 21 12 72.0 70 35 11 26 72
Cory Lewis R 24 5 6 4.64 21 19 85.3 86 44 13 36 75
Huascar Ynoa R 27 4 5 4.50 18 14 64.0 61 32 8 26 61
Eiberson Castellano R 24 4 5 4.75 21 17 83.3 83 44 12 33 78
Christian MacLeod L 25 3 5 4.74 20 19 81.7 82 43 11 38 71
Brock Stewart R 33 1 0 3.00 27 0 27.0 21 9 2 11 35
Ronny Henriquez R 25 3 3 4.32 40 6 75.0 75 36 9 27 63
Kody Funderburk L 28 3 3 4.13 36 4 61.0 56 28 6 26 62
Scott Blewett R 29 4 5 4.54 36 8 77.3 81 39 10 29 60
Anthony DeSclafani R 35 4 5 4.77 15 14 77.3 84 41 13 23 60
Chase Chaney R 25 6 9 4.99 24 20 113.7 130 63 16 38 64
Josh Winder R 28 3 3 4.23 29 4 61.7 61 29 8 20 54
Justin Topa R 34 3 2 3.80 48 0 42.7 41 18 3 14 36
Aaron Rozek L 29 5 7 4.96 22 13 94.3 105 52 15 30 64
Mike Paredes R 24 3 3 4.50 29 5 62.0 68 31 9 18 44
Jorge Alcala R 29 3 4 4.05 56 0 60.0 51 27 8 23 62
Cody Laweryson R 27 2 3 4.41 27 4 49.0 50 24 6 19 41
Michael Tonkin R 35 4 3 4.25 46 0 65.7 60 31 8 24 65
Adam Plutko R 33 3 5 5.06 16 12 64.0 71 36 12 21 48
Kyle Jones R 25 3 5 5.05 16 15 66.0 72 37 11 24 46
Joe Gunkel R 33 2 3 4.82 9 7 28.0 35 15 4 7 15
Jaylen Nowlin L 24 4 7 5.21 22 15 86.3 89 50 13 41 71
Trent Baker R 26 4 7 5.23 21 16 82.7 91 48 14 33 58
John Stankiewicz R 26 3 4 4.63 35 2 56.3 61 29 8 18 41
Alex Speas R 27 3 3 4.42 38 0 38.7 32 19 3 27 42
Zack Weiss R 33 2 2 4.67 27 1 34.7 33 18 5 16 34
Trevor Richards R 32 2 2 4.66 50 2 58.0 51 30 9 29 64
Jarret Whorff R 26 3 5 4.99 29 5 61.3 63 34 9 28 50
Ryan Jensen R 27 4 4 4.94 36 6 54.7 52 30 7 36 54
Jay Jackson R 37 2 2 4.60 27 0 31.3 31 16 6 10 32
Rafael Marcano L 25 2 4 5.31 25 8 57.7 61 34 8 32 45
Caleb Baragar L 31 2 3 5.06 25 3 32.0 32 18 5 19 29
Hunter McMahon R 27 1 2 4.78 32 1 49.0 54 26 7 14 33
Daniel Duarte R 28 2 3 4.76 38 0 39.7 37 21 5 20 35
Ricardo Velez R 26 5 6 4.70 37 0 46.0 47 24 7 19 42
Nick Wittgren R 34 2 2 5.03 37 2 48.3 53 27 7 16 34
Miguel Rodriguez R 26 3 4 5.00 35 1 45.0 48 25 7 20 37
Kyle Bischoff R 25 3 3 4.78 40 0 52.7 51 28 8 23 50
Austin Brice R 33 1 2 5.40 27 1 30.0 29 18 4 18 27
A.J. Alexy R 27 3 4 5.77 20 10 53.0 52 34 7 44 45
Regi Grace R 25 2 4 5.18 33 1 48.7 50 28 7 23 39
Sheldon Reed R 27 1 3 5.40 25 0 31.7 33 19 5 18 27
Diego Castillo R 27 2 4 5.35 39 0 33.7 31 20 5 15 33
Michael Boyle L 31 2 3 5.50 30 1 36.0 39 22 6 20 26
Jared Solomon R 28 2 3 5.79 31 0 32.7 34 21 5 21 25

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ 3ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Pablo López 174.0 9.4 2.2 1.1 6.0% 25.4% .295 110 107 3.61 91 2.8
Bailey Ober 156.3 9.2 2.1 1.4 5.8% 25.2% .278 106 104 3.93 94 2.4
Joe Ryan 136.0 9.6 2.1 1.2 5.6% 26.4% .280 110 107 3.60 91 2.2
Jhoan Duran 61.0 11.2 2.7 0.4 7.2% 30.5% .299 176 169 2.41 57 1.9
Zebby Matthews 122.3 8.5 1.8 1.3 4.9% 22.5% .304 103 106 3.92 97 1.8
Griffin Jax 73.0 10.7 2.5 1.0 6.7% 29.3% .285 130 123 3.16 77 1.5
David Festa 108.0 9.5 3.4 1.1 8.9% 24.6% .298 102 102 3.88 98 1.4
Louie Varland 127.0 8.4 2.7 1.2 7.0% 22.0% .301 96 97 4.06 104 1.4
Simeon Woods Richardson 128.0 7.8 3.5 1.1 9.0% 20.0% .290 95 98 4.31 105 1.4
Andrew Morris 116.0 6.5 2.5 1.2 6.5% 16.9% .294 96 98 4.32 105 1.2
Randy Dobnak 116.0 7.1 3.6 1.1 9.0% 17.8% .303 92 91 4.52 108 1.0
Travis Adams 107.0 6.8 2.9 1.2 7.5% 17.4% .297 91 95 4.43 109 1.0
Cole Sands 69.7 9.9 2.8 1.0 7.6% 26.5% .293 115 115 3.62 87 0.9
Chris Paddack 75.0 8.4 2.4 1.2 6.2% 21.8% .312 96 96 3.88 104 0.8
C.J. Culpepper 78.7 7.3 3.2 1.0 8.3% 18.9% .294 93 98 4.37 107 0.8
Darren McCaughan 119.0 6.8 2.5 1.3 6.5% 17.6% .299 89 89 4.56 113 0.8
Pierson Ohl 97.0 5.8 1.8 1.4 4.6% 15.0% .298 90 94 4.59 112 0.7
Cole Irvin 117.7 6.3 2.2 1.5 5.7% 16.4% .298 88 87 4.78 114 0.7
Marco Raya 97.7 7.6 3.8 1.2 9.5% 19.3% .293 88 93 4.65 113 0.7
Brent Headrick 72.0 9.0 3.3 1.4 8.4% 23.3% .298 95 97 4.37 105 0.6
Cory Lewis 85.3 7.9 3.8 1.4 9.5% 19.8% .294 90 95 4.70 112 0.6
Huascar Ynoa 64.0 8.6 3.7 1.1 9.4% 21.9% .294 92 96 4.26 108 0.6
Eiberson Castellano 83.3 8.4 3.6 1.3 9.0% 21.3% .300 87 92 4.76 114 0.5
Christian MacLeod 81.7 7.8 4.2 1.2 10.4% 19.5% .297 88 92 4.73 114 0.5
Brock Stewart 27.0 11.7 3.7 0.7 9.8% 31.3% .302 138 130 2.88 72 0.5
Ronny Henriquez 75.0 7.6 3.2 1.1 8.4% 19.5% .297 96 100 4.30 104 0.5
Kody Funderburk 61.0 9.1 3.8 0.9 9.8% 23.5% .299 101 101 3.95 99 0.5
Scott Blewett 77.3 7.0 3.4 1.2 8.5% 17.5% .300 92 92 4.55 109 0.4
Anthony DeSclafani 77.3 7.0 2.7 1.5 6.8% 17.9% .300 87 80 4.78 115 0.4
Chase Chaney 113.7 5.1 3.0 1.3 7.5% 12.7% .298 83 87 5.07 120 0.4
Josh Winder 61.7 7.9 2.9 1.2 7.6% 20.5% .294 98 98 4.23 102 0.4
Justin Topa 42.7 7.6 3.0 0.6 7.7% 19.9% .299 109 103 3.67 91 0.3
Aaron Rozek 94.3 6.1 2.9 1.4 7.2% 15.5% .298 84 84 5.00 119 0.3
Mike Paredes 62.0 6.4 2.6 1.3 6.7% 16.3% .301 92 97 4.52 108 0.3
Jorge Alcala 60.0 9.3 3.5 1.2 9.1% 24.6% .274 103 103 4.09 98 0.3
Cody Laweryson 49.0 7.5 3.5 1.1 8.9% 19.2% .301 94 96 4.38 106 0.3
Michael Tonkin 65.7 8.9 3.3 1.1 8.6% 23.3% .289 98 90 4.15 102 0.2
Adam Plutko 64.0 6.8 3.0 1.7 7.5% 17.1% .298 82 78 5.19 122 0.2
Kyle Jones 66.0 6.3 3.3 1.5 8.2% 15.7% .293 82 86 5.04 121 0.2
Joe Gunkel 28.0 4.8 2.3 1.3 5.6% 12.1% .316 86 81 4.71 116 0.1
Jaylen Nowlin 86.3 7.4 4.3 1.4 10.4% 18.0% .295 80 85 5.23 125 0.1
Trent Baker 82.7 6.3 3.6 1.5 8.9% 15.6% .295 79 82 5.32 126 0.0
John Stankiewicz 56.3 6.6 2.9 1.3 7.3% 16.6% .299 90 93 4.58 112 0.0
Alex Speas 38.7 9.8 6.3 0.7 15.1% 23.5% .290 94 96 4.42 106 0.0
Zack Weiss 34.7 8.8 4.2 1.3 10.5% 22.2% .292 89 84 4.74 113 0.0
Trevor Richards 58.0 9.9 4.5 1.4 11.3% 24.9% .284 89 86 4.54 112 0.0
Jarret Whorff 61.3 7.3 4.1 1.3 10.2% 18.2% .295 83 87 5.07 120 0.0
Ryan Jensen 54.7 8.9 5.9 1.2 14.2% 21.3% .298 84 85 5.06 119 0.0
Jay Jackson 31.3 9.2 2.9 1.7 7.5% 24.1% .294 90 80 4.68 111 -0.1
Rafael Marcano 57.7 7.0 5.0 1.2 12.0% 16.9% .299 78 84 5.24 128 -0.1
Caleb Baragar 32.0 8.2 5.3 1.4 13.0% 19.9% .293 82 80 5.27 122 -0.1
Hunter McMahon 49.0 6.1 2.6 1.3 6.6% 15.5% .299 87 89 4.73 115 -0.1
Daniel Duarte 39.7 7.9 4.5 1.1 11.4% 19.9% .283 87 89 4.87 115 -0.2
Ricardo Velez 46.0 8.2 3.7 1.4 9.3% 20.6% .301 88 91 4.77 113 -0.2
Nick Wittgren 48.3 6.3 3.0 1.3 7.5% 16.0% .301 83 79 4.90 121 -0.2
Miguel Rodriguez 45.0 7.4 4.0 1.4 9.9% 18.2% .301 83 88 5.02 120 -0.2
Kyle Bischoff 52.7 8.5 3.9 1.4 9.7% 21.2% .293 87 90 4.91 115 -0.3
Austin Brice 30.0 8.1 5.4 1.2 13.1% 19.7% .291 77 73 5.51 130 -0.3
A.J. Alexy 53.0 7.6 7.5 1.2 17.2% 17.6% .290 72 75 5.91 139 -0.3
Regi Grace 48.7 7.2 4.3 1.3 10.6% 17.9% .295 80 85 5.23 125 -0.3
Sheldon Reed 31.7 7.7 5.1 1.4 12.2% 18.2% .298 77 80 5.42 130 -0.3
Diego Castillo 33.7 8.8 4.0 1.3 10.3% 22.6% .283 78 82 4.84 129 -0.4
Michael Boyle 36.0 6.5 5.0 1.5 12.0% 15.6% .295 76 74 5.65 132 -0.4
Jared Solomon 32.7 6.9 5.8 1.4 13.5% 16.1% .290 72 72 6.03 139 -0.5

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Pablo López Jack McDowell Don Drysdale Corey Kluber
Bailey Ober Masahiro Tanaka Matt Cain Mike Mussina
Joe Ryan Bret Saberhagen Ray Culp Mike Mussina
Jhoan Duran Lee Smith Rob Dibble Rollie Fingers
Zebby Matthews Jose Urquidy Rick Ramos Brad Ziegler
Griffin Jax Bob Locker Guillermo Mota Rollie Fingers
David Festa Kevin Millwood Dock Ellis Mark Kiefer
Louie Varland Luis Castillo Russ Butler Zach Eflin
Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Zachary Aaron Blair Jim Hughes
Andrew Morris Henderson Alvarez Pablo Lopez German Marquez
Randy Dobnak Tyler Herron Mike Lemish Charlie Morton
Travis Adams Luis Cessa Henderson Alvarez Matt Wisler
Cole Sands Scott Sullivan Junichi Tazawa Rich Bordi
Chris Paddack Chuck Porter Chris Sheehan Frank Castillo
C.J. Culpepper Ken Carlyle Keefe Cato Gene Lary
Darren McCaughan John Butcher Kyle Kendrick Cole De Vries
Pierson Ohl Casey Lawrence Matt Neil Aaron Civale
Cole Irvin Adam Pettyjohn Scott McGregor Scott Diamond
Marco Raya Mark Fidrych George Bechtold Michael Herson
Brent Headrick Everett Teaford Mike Yearout Tony Watson
Cory Lewis Cholly Naranjo Daniel Welch Jose Rosario
Huascar Ynoa Frank Brosseau Todd Ozias Dave Hasbach
Eiberson Castellano Jharel Cotton Robert Urban Sean Snedeker
Christian MacLeod Sean Nolin Gary Christenson Chet Nichols
Brock Stewart Jumbo Brown Jesse Crain J.J. Putz
Ronny Henriquez Brandon League Chad Bettis Scott Anderson
Kody Funderburk Robbie Ross Frank Gonzales Ron Meridith
Scott Blewett Bo Schultz Anthony Telford Ty Marotz
Anthony DeSclafani Matt Kinney Brandon McCarthy Larry Jansen
Chase Chaney Chad Jenkins Jen-Ho Tseng Shao-Ching Chiang
Josh Winder Frank Herrmann Blake Hawksworth Juan Carlos Oviedo
Justin Topa LaTroy Hawkins Matt Lindstrom Brandon Kintzler
Aaron Rozek Logan Darnell Rick Honeycutt Allan Anderson
Mike Paredes Robbie Guzik Jerry Spradlin Gordon Chretien
Jorge Alcala Pedro Baez Ryan Tepera Chris Perez
Cody Laweryson Chris Mobley Jonathan Aro Carl Willis
Michael Tonkin Al Worthington Dick Tidrow Salomon Torres
Adam Plutko Jim Bagby Joe Genewich Dick Bosman
Kyle Jones Ed Caballero Luis Valdez Doug Peters
Joe Gunkel Pat Tilmon Pete Donohue Rolando Valdez
Jaylen Nowlin Don Arlich Camilo Vazquez Marlon Arias
Trent Baker Parker Bridwell Paul Clemens Mark Smith
John Stankiewicz Brandon Bowe Jason Kummerfeldt Gerald Ako
Alex Speas Bruce Taylor Brad Lesley Horacio Pina
Zack Weiss Johnny Murphy Gregg Olson Dick Drago
Trevor Richards Scott Proctor Bob Long Ray Narleski
Jarret Whorff Blake Wood Victor Alcantara Doug Sessions
Ryan Jensen Gene Pentz John Hudek Chris Carpenter
Jay Jackson Orlando Pena Roy Face Rick Aguilera
Rafael Marcano Philip Barzilla Brandon Matheny Rich Kelley
Caleb Baragar Matt Perisho Fred Scherman Tommy Hottovy
Hunter McMahon William Clauss Pat Lehman Elio Serrano
Daniel Duarte Jesus Colome Ronald Belisario Ken Ryan
Ricardo Velez Mark Ettles Matt Stites Mike Natale
Nick Wittgren Bryan Corey Brandon Puffer Travis Minix
Miguel Rodriguez Elvys Quezada Rich Bombard David Peterson
Kyle Bischoff Logan Cozart Troy Neiman Cam Hill
Austin Brice Gary Waslewski Freddy Schmidt Hal White
A.J. Alexy Wes Scott Cecil Butler Rafael Dolis
Regi Grace Mike Dupree Andrew Wilson Willie Shanks
Sheldon Reed Les Munns David Wong Jeremy Schmidt
Diego Castillo George Murray Dave Beard Jeff Austin
Michael Boyle Rudy Arias Phil Dumatrait Matt Perisho
Jared Solomon Mike Phelps Mark Silva Tad Slowik

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Pablo López .253 .306 .406 .222 .272 .377 3.8 1.5 3.25 4.55
Bailey Ober .237 .291 .403 .229 .273 .414 3.4 1.3 3.42 4.67
Joe Ryan .226 .284 .379 .228 .272 .388 3.1 1.2 3.24 4.54
Jhoan Duran .204 .283 .315 .212 .271 .280 2.5 1.0 1.68 3.32
Zebby Matthews .258 .307 .439 .256 .287 .420 2.7 0.8 3.41 4.85
Griffin Jax .218 .288 .336 .213 .263 .361 2.2 0.6 2.52 4.26
David Festa .242 .320 .389 .234 .302 .390 2.3 0.5 3.49 4.80
Louie Varland .258 .316 .408 .248 .305 .426 2.3 0.5 3.76 4.95
Simeon Woods Richardson .240 .313 .376 .256 .323 .433 2.2 0.3 3.82 5.07
Andrew Morris .275 .321 .451 .251 .304 .396 1.8 0.4 3.87 4.96
Randy Dobnak .269 .349 .447 .260 .325 .401 1.6 0.2 4.05 5.05
Travis Adams .262 .326 .400 .265 .319 .448 1.6 0.3 4.05 5.06
Cole Sands .240 .314 .400 .220 .284 .348 1.5 0.1 2.87 4.64
Chris Paddack .257 .306 .426 .267 .311 .433 1.4 0.2 3.63 5.01
C.J. Culpepper .248 .328 .382 .258 .327 .430 1.3 0.1 3.92 5.27
Darren McCaughan .258 .320 .424 .276 .326 .459 1.5 0.1 4.13 5.21
Pierson Ohl .273 .317 .466 .282 .311 .454 1.3 0.0 4.09 5.31
Cole Irvin .262 .311 .385 .278 .327 .491 1.3 0.0 4.20 5.33
Marco Raya .276 .359 .459 .233 .308 .381 1.3 0.0 4.18 5.21
Brent Headrick .247 .309 .400 .250 .321 .434 1.2 -0.1 3.68 5.32
Cory Lewis .259 .332 .459 .253 .323 .416 1.2 0.1 4.11 5.19
Huascar Ynoa .241 .326 .397 .248 .318 .398 1.0 0.1 3.96 5.12
Eiberson Castellano .292 .372 .500 .224 .316 .372 1.2 -0.1 4.10 5.50
Christian MacLeod .237 .321 .376 .263 .347 .443 1.1 -0.1 4.21 5.38
Brock Stewart .217 .308 .326 .204 .279 .296 0.9 0.2 2.12 4.42
Ronny Henriquez .250 .327 .404 .259 .322 .418 1.0 0.0 3.80 4.99
Kody Funderburk .238 .326 .325 .239 .324 .394 1.1 0.0 3.41 4.87
Scott Blewett .273 .341 .447 .255 .322 .414 0.9 -0.1 4.05 5.21
Anthony DeSclafani .288 .349 .519 .253 .297 .409 0.9 -0.2 4.16 5.58
Chase Chaney .299 .367 .437 .268 .324 .472 1.0 -0.2 4.56 5.47
Josh Winder .222 .298 .398 .276 .329 .418 0.8 -0.1 3.62 4.95
Justin Topa .250 .326 .400 .244 .313 .326 0.7 -0.1 3.12 4.83
Aaron Rozek .248 .306 .372 .287 .346 .500 0.8 -0.4 4.45 5.64
Mike Paredes .286 .341 .500 .263 .301 .401 0.8 -0.2 3.85 5.26
Jorge Alcala .235 .325 .402 .216 .277 .368 0.9 -0.4 3.28 5.00
Cody Laweryson .253 .324 .429 .265 .333 .402 0.7 -0.1 3.76 5.12
Michael Tonkin .252 .325 .467 .226 .309 .329 0.8 -0.5 3.31 5.76
Adam Plutko .300 .356 .508 .254 .311 .457 0.6 -0.3 4.42 5.78
Kyle Jones .273 .329 .489 .270 .331 .444 0.6 -0.2 4.55 5.59
Joe Gunkel .298 .344 .491 .300 .328 .467 0.3 -0.1 4.39 5.49
Jaylen Nowlin .266 .357 .404 .258 .349 .455 0.7 -0.5 4.70 5.85
Trent Baker .253 .321 .411 .289 .360 .513 0.5 -0.5 4.74 5.88
John Stankiewicz .273 .336 .436 .267 .312 .440 0.5 -0.4 3.98 5.24
Alex Speas .215 .370 .338 .225 .344 .350 0.4 -0.4 3.70 5.46
Zack Weiss .254 .347 .429 .236 .325 .417 0.3 -0.4 3.84 5.79
Trevor Richards .220 .319 .400 .240 .321 .413 0.5 -0.7 3.86 5.97
Jarret Whorff .259 .359 .438 .262 .336 .431 0.4 -0.5 4.47 5.64
Ryan Jensen .247 .373 .443 .243 .353 .374 0.4 -0.6 4.34 5.78
Jay Jackson .250 .311 .500 .254 .311 .433 0.3 -0.4 3.45 6.02
Rafael Marcano .242 .333 .339 .274 .369 .470 0.3 -0.6 4.70 6.11
Caleb Baragar .256 .347 .419 .253 .357 .458 0.2 -0.5 4.28 6.27
Hunter McMahon .281 .330 .483 .269 .328 .417 0.2 -0.5 4.21 5.43
Daniel Duarte .240 .345 .400 .244 .341 .410 0.1 -0.5 4.16 5.61
Ricardo Velez .273 .360 .489 .245 .314 .394 0.2 -0.5 3.98 5.38
Nick Wittgren .284 .354 .466 .264 .325 .434 0.1 -0.5 4.41 5.85
Miguel Rodriguez .277 .362 .506 .258 .330 .402 0.1 -0.6 4.41 5.75
Kyle Bischoff .272 .376 .457 .230 .307 .398 0.2 -0.7 4.13 5.47
Austin Brice .255 .387 .431 .242 .363 .409 0.0 -0.5 4.59 6.39
A.J. Alexy .253 .415 .407 .250 .367 .422 0.1 -0.9 5.08 6.79
Regi Grace .247 .337 .388 .271 .368 .467 0.0 -0.6 4.63 5.79
Sheldon Reed .279 .380 .443 .246 .342 .462 -0.1 -0.7 4.77 6.33
Diego Castillo .234 .338 .406 .242 .329 .424 0.0 -0.8 4.58 6.48
Michael Boyle .250 .345 .354 .281 .369 .521 -0.1 -0.8 4.72 6.65
Jared Solomon .258 .387 .452 .265 .378 .441 -0.3 -0.8 5.16 6.69

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.


Cubs Add $5 Million Worth of Colin Rea

Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

If you’re a Milwaukee Brewers fan, you probably know the volume and quality of Colin Rea’s work the past two seasons. Last season, only 58 pitchers qualified for the ERA title, and Rea was among them. Over the past two seasons, Rea is second among Brewers pitchers in starts, innings, wins, and strikeouts, trailing only Freddy Peralta in those categories.

If you’re not a Brewers fan, you might have seen the news that Rea signed with the Cubs and thought, “Oh, is this guy the Padres tried to trade with a torn UCL? Is he back from Japan?”

In an offseason defined by the scarcity of starting pitching, it’s a bit jarring to see a starter sign for one year and $5 million. Especially one who just threw 167 2/3 innings in 2024. There aren’t enough of those guys in the entire league for every team to have two. Roughly 15 times as many people summited Mt. Everest in 2024 as qualified for the major league ERA title. And Rea got just $5 million? What gives? Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Hoffman Joins the Jays

Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The Blue Jays came into this offseason with one glaring need: relievers. Now, that’s not to say that they don’t need help elsewhere. The bottom of their lineup is thin. They’re probably a starter short of an optimal rotation, particularly given how uncertain Alek Manoah’s future looks. But they’re a playoff hopeful, and they had the worst bullpen in baseball in 2024 – 3.1 wins worse than the White Sox, if you can believe it. So the bullpen had to be priority number one, and voila:

Jeff Hoffman might not be a household name, but he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball since joining the Phillies in 2023. He’s racked up 3.6 WAR in that time, but reliever WAR can get weird with the leverage adjustments, so let’s put it this way instead: He’s sixth in ERA and third in FIP over the last two years. His strikeout rate hovers around 33.3%, and he walks a thoroughly normal number of hitters. In other words, this doesn’t look like a fluke, and he’s not getting paid like a fluke, either. His deal is worth $33 million over those three years, with $6 million in available incentives. Read the rest of this entry »