When he stepped off the mound after a dominant seven innings last Tuesday night, Jack Flaherty surely thought he’d thrown his last pitch of the regular season. The Cardinals led the Diamondbacks 1-0 and the Brewers by 3 1/2 games in the NL Central. A win that night would all but lock up the division; three games up in the loss column with five games left to play is a tough lead to cough up.

But it wasn’t to be. Andrew Miller gave up a tying home run in the ninth inning, the Cardinals ended up losing in nineteen (!!) innings, and the Brewers started to catch up. Saturday night, after a beatdown at the hands of the Cubs was matched by a Brewers loss in Colorado, leaving the Redbirds a game ahead in the standings, the Cardinals announced that Flaherty would start Sunday afternoon.

In the real world, the game was a breeze. Flaherty put together another strong outing, going seven scoreless and allowing only two hits, and the Cardinal offense came to life en route to an easy 9-0 victory. The Brewers, meanwhile, pulled their starters when a St. Louis victory became inevitable, eventually losing 4-3 in 13 innings.

But those are the results that actually happened, not the results that could have happened, and knowing what could happen is often more interesting than seeing the actual results. To that end, I was curious: did the gambit of starting your best pitcher in the regular season rather than saving him for a potential elimination game make sense? Let’s do the math.

To work out the cost and benefit of starting Flaherty, we need to work out the potential scenarios that follow a Flaherty start. First, there’s the world that actually occurred: the Cardinals win the NL Central and move on to face the Braves in the NLDS. In that situation, the cost of starting Flaherty in the last game of the regular season is low. He’ll start Game 2 of the series, and can start a potential Game 5 on regular rest. There’s almost no cost here; if Miles Mikolas had pitched yesterday instead, Flaherty would start Game 1 and Mikolas Game 2 instead of vice versa, and Flaherty would still start Game 5. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s start with the obvious: Defense hasn’t been the big surprise of Marcus Semien’s 2019. That story was written a few years ago. The big surprise of Semien’s 2019 has been that in consequence of a .373 wOBA and 7.5 WAR, he has precisely doubled the value he produced last year in the second-best season of his seven-year career. I wrote about Semien’s offensive breakout in May, noting his much-improved plate discipline, and suggesting that its probable cause — a change in approach at the top of the strike zone — augured continued success. Dan Szymborski picked up the thread in July, finding much the same, and also discussing Semien’s defense at some length. Dan concluded:

[D]efensive numbers are volatile, so having a second year of improved defensive numbers significantly betters the chances that Semien’s reinvention with the glove is for real. That the improvement is largely driven by error rate is an even more promising development because though errors themselves aren’t a great measure of defense, error runs tend to be more predictive on a year-to-year basis than range runs. This isn’t surprising given that range numbers necessarily have to jump into evaluating theoretical plays that never happened. In error runs, Semien’s +4.6 ties with Paul DeJong for the best in baseball at any position in 2019. If he continues on this pace, he will have added roughly 20 runs compared to the 2015 season, simply from avoiding errors.

Going into the final day of the season, Semien was +6.9 ErrR, which put him 19.5 runs ahead of 2015’s abysmal mark, and contributed no small amount to his overall WAR figure (which, incidentally, Dan optimistically projected for six runs in July, and which Semien blew past in August). In this piece, I want to pick up on something a commenter on Dan’s piece pointed out: that the major improvement in Semien’s defensive numbers came not right after his much-ballyhooed 2015 heart-to-heart sessions with Ron Washington, but over the course of 2017 — right when Matt Chapman became the A’s everyday third baseman.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2019 Playoffs begin Tuesday evening as the Milwaukee Brewers (89-73) head to the nation’s capital to face the Washington Nationals (93-69). After a season during which most of the National League was in the playoff picture until very late in the season, both teams finished their respective campaigns in surprisingly convincing fashion, managing to clinch postseason appearances with time to spare. Both squads also fell short in their improbable runs for a division title late in the season, but making the Wild Card is still good enough to earn a bit of bubbly.

For the Washington Nationals, the end of the Bryce Harper era didn’t spell the end of their contending years. As it turns out, there is a foolproof way to replace a Bryce Harper: make a new one. Juan Soto only needed 121 minor league games to prepare for instant stardom in the majors had a fantastic 2018 run, hitting .292/.406/.517 with 22 homers and 3.7 WAR in 116 games for Washington. But Harper was still the Big Name on the team, and it wasn’t until his lucrative departure to Philadelphia that Soto could define Washington’s outfield.

Anything can happen in one game — the Detroit Tigers beat better teams on 47 occasions this season — but if I’m one of the other NL playoff teams, the Nationals aren’t the team I’d be pulling for to win. When considering the playoff construction of the teams — with less of an emphasis on depth and more on the top of the rotation — ZiPS projects the Nationals as the second-best squad in the National League. Second-in-the-National-League means they even edge out the Atlanta Braves by the slenderest of threads.

Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions.

Position: Economic Valuation Analyst

Department: Baseball Operations
Location: Baltimore, MD

Job Summary:
This position is responsible for developing creative and sophisticated analytical tools to support decision-making in Baseball Operations, with a focus on labor market economics and asset valuation. The employee will work closely with the professional scouting and analytics departments to inform strategic thinking.

Primary Responsibilities:

• Research economic issues pertaining to roster construction and player acquisition.
• Develop, test, and implement predictive models and quantitative tools.
• Assist with database management.
• Perform other duties and ad-hoc reports as assigned.

Desired Qualifications:

• Advanced degree in Economics, Finance, Mathematics, Operations Research, Statistics, or a related field. Applicants with a non-traditional educational background and experience in financial modeling will be considered as well.
• Fluency in probability theory and financial mathematics, including an in-depth understanding of financial instruments and of pricing their associated risks.
• Experience with relational database systems and knowledge of SQL.
• Experience with predictive modeling using tools such as R or Python.
• Passion for baseball and understanding of sabermetrics.
• Strong written and oral communication skills.
• Interpersonal skills with the ability to collaborate with staff members of all levels.
• Willingness to work non-traditional hours (nights, weekends, holidays).

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

Position: Scouting Analyst

Department: Professional Scouting
Location: Baltimore, MD

Job Summary:
This position will support the efforts of the Professional Scouting department by conducting extensive evaluations of professional players in the United States and abroad via multiple information sources & video analysis. The analyst will also work closely with the Research & Development department. The position is based out of Baltimore, Maryland

Primary Responsibilities:
Primary duties to include, but not limited to, the following:

• Compose scouting reports on professional players utilizing video, scouting information, and technology to enhance the club’s decision-making process.
• Build relationships with field scouts and members of the baseball community.
• Monitor activities, player performances, and roster dynamics of other organizations.
• Assist with database maintenance.
• Perform other duties and responsibilities as assigned

Qualifications:
Required:

• Ability to interpret data from multiple sources & convey findings to decision-makers.
• Proficiency with Microsoft Excel, SQL, & SQL Databases preferred.
• Strong ability to self-motivate, self-organize, and multi-task.
• High level of attention to detail.
• Exceptional communication skills.
• Strong baseball knowledge.
• Ability to work long hours, evenings, weekends, and holidays.

Desired:
At least 3 years’ experience from a variety of backgrounds, which can include: business, scouting, coaching, education, or other fields.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Baltimore Orioles.

Please note this posting contains multiple positions.

Position: Baseball Systems Developer

Location: Arlington, TX

Description:
The developer will be responsible for supporting, maintaining and expanding the Rangers’ baseball operations software systems. A knack for compelling visuals and design preferred. The Rangers are looking for strong team players with outstanding people skills. Applicants that can provide code samples (any language doesn’t have to be baseball related) will be given strong preference. Diverse applicants are encouraged to apply. Spanish fluency a plus.

Responsibilities:

• Web development, design and testing
• Database queries to support the application
• Designing and maintaining reports
• Application support for the front office, scouts and coaches
• Update and maintain internal system documentation

Qualifications:

• Passion for the game of baseball
• 1-3 years professional experience in a similar capacity and/or degree in computer science preferred
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills
• Highly organized
• Occasional evening, weekend and holiday availability. Support is provided 24/7/365 and is shared among the team.

Technology:

• Microsoft Visual Studio
• ASP.Net
• C#
• JavaScript/AJAX
• Microsoft SQL Server
• SQL Reporting Services (SSRS)

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

Position: Baseball Systems Junior Database Engineer

Location: Arlington, TX

Description:
The junior database engineer will be responsible for maintaining and expanding the Rangers’ baseball operations database. The role is responsible for importing and integrating data from external providers, and interacting with the R&D department to implement models and build reports.

Responsibilities:

• Database design
• Export, Transform and Load multiple data feeds (ETL)
• Assist in creating and monitoring data quality initiatives, resolving issues, and communicating to stakeholders
• Writing and updating SSRS reports
• Collaboration with application/web developer on app development
• Basic support for end users of reports and applications
• Update and maintain documentation for database and applications

Qualifications:

• 1-3 years professional experience in a similar capacity preferred and/or degree in computer science or related field
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills
• Highly organized
• Experience with Microsoft SQL Server, Snowflake or other relational databases mandatory
• Experience in Wherescape (preferred), SQL Server Integration Services or other ETL tools helpful
• Experience in agile environments helpful
• Passion for the game of baseball preferred

Other Requirements:

• Evening and weekend availability, in particular during the baseball season
• Occasional travel required

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

Position: Baseball Systems Support Coordinator

Location: Arlington, TX

Description:
The Support Coordinator, Baseball Systems is responsible for coordinating technical support conversations between Baseball Operations users, Baseball Systems engineers and Information Technology. The support coordinator will also be responsible for assisting with building application documentation along with training users. This position will also assist in quality assurance endeavors and basic project management tasks.

Responsibilities:

• Application and basic technical support for Baseball Operations users
• Coordination and follow up with Baseball Systems and stakeholders on outstanding issues
• Assist in writing and maintenance of documentation and help videos for users
• Assist in training users
• Assist in quality assurance endeavors
• Assist with project management tasks

Qualifications:

• Excellent written and verbal communication skills
• Highly organized
• Spanish fluency a big plus
• Strong technical skills – not a programmer, but comfortable using complex applications.
• Passion for the game of baseball strongly preferred

Other Requirements:

• Evening and weekend availability, in particular during the baseball season
• Occasional travel required

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Texas Rangers.

Joe Maddon has managed for 14 MLB seasons, and in nine of them his team has won 90 or more games. He captured a pennant in Tampa Bay, and most notably a World Series title with the Cubs. Four of his five years in Chicago have included October baseball.

Not this year: not after a September swoon that saw the Cubs lose nine straight down the stretch. Despite having a plus-106 run differential — by comparison, the playoff-bound Brewers and Cardinals are plus-one, and plus-93, respectively — Maddon’s club is heading home after today’s game.

The bespectacled and thoughtfully-loquacious denizen of Hazelton, PA was to meet with Theo Epstein last night, and not simply for a cold frosty. Speculation has been swirling about Maddon’s future — this is the final year of his contract — and in all likelihood there was some solemnity to the Saturday evening sit-down. It will come as a surprise if we don’t soon learn that the Joe Maddon era is over in Chicago.

Earlier this week Maddon was asked about having used the word “optimistic” when addressing his tenuous-at-best situation. His response suggested something other than an expected return engagement at the Friendly Confines. Read the rest of this entry »

This is the fourth installment of this year’s Team Entropy series, my recurring look not only at the races for the remaining playoff spots but the potential for end-of-season chaos in the form of down-to-the-wire suspense and even tiebreakers. Ideally, we want more ties than the men’s department at Macy’s. If you’re new to this, please read the introduction here.

The final weekend of the 2019 season is upon us, and while five of the divisions and all of the super-complicated tiebreaker scenarios are off the table, with three games to play, each league has multiple scenarios that could result in at least one tiebreaker game. Seven hundred or so words is worth a picture, so first, behold this:

Read the rest of this entry »

Félix Hernández didn’t always throw his signature changeup. When he was a teenager coming up through the Mariners organization, his best pitches were his electric fastball and a nasty curveball. That breaking ball has stuck with him in some form or fashion throughout his career, but his changeup was an afterthought until around 2009, the year before he won the Cy Young award. Since then, his cambio has become almost synonymous with his approach as a pitcher.

The changeup has existed in the game as long as pitchers have been trying to disrupt the timing of the opposing batter. But Félix’s changeup was unlike any that had come before. “There is no one in baseball that throws a Félix Hernández changeup — no one,” Brandon Moss told Sports Illustrated back in 2014. What made it so unique was it’s combination of high velocity and elite vertical movement. He threw it around 90 mph when almost no one else in baseball was throwing a changeup that hard. Conventional wisdom assumed that the velocity differential was the most important aspect of a good changeup. Afterall, what better way to disrupt the timing of a batter than to throw two pitches with a significant gap in speed even though they look the same out of the hand.

Based on Harry Pavlidis’s research into effective changeups, we know that a large velocity differential is beneficial for inducing swings and misses. But he also found that changeups with good separation from the fastball by movement can also be effective. Félix’s cambio had the high velocity of a fastball — and the resulting small differential — but it dropped off the table like a splitter. Read the rest of this entry »

The Nationals haven’t simply been building a franchise since 2005, they’ve been building traditions. Traditions like the running of the presidents, or whatever #Natitude was. These days, the fans cheer “N-A-T-S, NATS, NATS, NATS!” when something good happens, which is, yes, entirely co-opted from the NFL’s New York Jets.

But the most enduring tradition of the Nationals’ brief history is what has happened after each time they’ve reached the playoffs: They lose, sometimes horribly, and always crushingly.

This year, having clinched a spot in the NL Wild Card game, the Nationals are preparing to do it again.

But this time, oh ho boy, it’ll be different.

Maybe.

Before we get to why, here’s how it’s gone down the last four times:

2012
98-64 (Best in MLB), 23.7 WAR (6th in NL), 101 wRC+ (T-3rd in NL), 194 HR (2nd in NL), 105 SB (T-5th in NL)

Top pitcher: Jordan Zimmerman (5.5 WAR)
Top position player: Bryce Harper (5.2 WAR)

When the team with the best record in baseball is up 6-0 in a deciding NLDS game 5, you’re probably okay to keep the plastic up in the clubhouse. “Not so fast,” said noted slugger Pete Kozma. Read the rest of this entry »

Wearing his emotions on his sleeve start to finish — from the moment that he walked through the bullpen door to chants of “Let’s go, Félix!” to his own tearful salute to the fans upon being pulled with one out in the sixth inning — on Thursday night at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Félix Hernández made the 418th and likely final start of his 15-year run with the Mariners. He tipped his cap to the King’s Court upon entering, fell behind early while struggling with his command and control, strutted a bit after a strikeout, exulted in Dylan Moore’s spectacular, run-saving catch to end the fifth inning, competed like hell with a tenacity that far outstripped his stuff, and then bowed to the frenzied crowd of 20,921 before exiting the field. Some 2,800 miles way in Brooklyn, watching the outing on my office TV as I pecked out an article full of objective measures regarding his place in history, I struggled to keep it together. I can only imagine how Mariners fans felt.

It’s an understatement to say that the parting of Hernández — whose seven-year, $175 million contract has run its course — and the rebuilding Mariners is a bittersweet moment for the pitcher, the team, and their long-suffering fans, or fans of great baseball players in general. There’s certainly plenty of reason to ponder the peaks of his run and recall the good times, the hopes he represented as a teenaged arrival on a team whose championship aspirations had been so often thwarted. His dazzling combination of an electrifying, darting sinker, a knee-buckling curve, and a signature hard changeup propelled him to a Cy Young award, two ERA titles, six All-Star appearances, a perfect game, and 2,524 strikeouts. He arrived as “King Félix,” and grew into the moniker. From 2009-14, he was the best pitcher in the American League by ERA, FIP, strikeouts, and WAR.

For as cool as all of that was, the reality is that this sendoff is as much about Hernández’s decline as his stardom, and the ache and sorrow over close calls and missed opportunities that have deprived him of a chance to test his mettle in the postseason. He’s no Ernie Banks, hanging around into his 40s in a reduced role at a new position. This parting is all happening more than six months before the pitcher’s 34th birthday, an age when he should still be a productive major leaguer if not necessarily one at the pinnacle of his career. Perhaps he still can be, but his recent performance doesn’t suggest it, not with a season ERA that has almost literally tripled since 2014, when he netted his second ERA title and finished as the runner-up in the AL Cy Young voting for a second time. For the first 12 years of his career, he was clearly on a Cooperstown-bound path, but there’s little to indicate he can continue traveling that road.

The rare 21st century pitcher to debut before his 20th birthday — Dylan Bundy, Elvis Luciano, and Julio Urías are the others — Hernández got an early start towards stardom. While pitchers who debut at that tender age have a leg up when it comes to reaching the Hall of Fame just as their position-playing counterparts do, the effect is not as great. I noted in connection with Ronald Acuña Jr.’s debut last year that 25 of the 244 players who had at least one plate appearance in their age-19 seasons (10.2%) wound up in Cooperstown, about 8.7 times the overall rate (1.18%). For pitchers active in their age-19 seasons, the total is 17 (not counting Babe Ruth, who converted to position playing) out of 296 (5.7%), about 4.9 times the overall rate. It’s a reasonable assumption that the difference between the two rates owes a fair bit to some combination of injury rates and workloads as they relate to young pitchers, but that’s a question for another day. Read the rest of this entry »