Please note this posting contains multiple positions.

Position: Quantitative Analyst

Department: Baseball Research & Development
Status: Full-Time
Reports to: Director, Quantitative Analysis
Deadline: November 8, 2019

Description:
The Baseball Analytics team of the Los Angeles Dodgers is responsible for developing novel statistical methodology to support decision-making throughout Dodgers baseball operations. They are seeking to hire a Quantitative Analyst to join the team. As a member of the team, you will collaborate with experts (from statistics, computer science, biomechanics and other disciplines) who will challenge you to bring scientific rigor to your research. This position offers the opportunity to solve challenging problems in data science and ultimately see the impact of your work on the field.

Job Functions:

• Develop and implement novel mathematical models to answer research questions in player evaluation, player development and in-game strategy
• Productionize and maintain data science projects relied upon by the rest of the organization to support their decision-making processes
• Collaborate with team members to provide technical advice, learn from their expertise and integrate data science projects with each other
• Perform ad hoc data analyses to answer urgent questions from front office leadership and other groups within baseball operations
• Prepare presentations and reports to disseminate model results to the front office, as well as staff from coaching, scouting and player development
• Assist with and manage personnel-related manners, such as reviewing resumes, interviewing candidates and overseeing intern projects

Basic Requirements/Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in statistics, computer science, mathematics or any other STEM field related to data science
• Proficiency in R or Python
• Understanding of Git version control for code development
• Ability to communicative effectively in speech and in writing on a technical and nontechnical level
• Experience applying one or more of the following modeling techniques (or similarly specialized techniques) to real-world data preferred:
• Advanced statistical models such as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), spatial or time series models, or Bayesian hierarchical models
• Topics in machine learning (e.g. ensemble methods), artificial intelligence (e.g. reinforcement learning) or computer vision (e.g. pose estimation)
• Techniques from operations research such as optimization or simulation
• Experience with advanced data visualization libraries such as D3 or plotly preferred
• Experience maintaining a well-organized, well-documented code repository for productionizing a data science project preferred

To Apply:
To apply, visit https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/team/jobs.

Position: Quantitative Analysis Intern

Department: Baseball Research & Development
Status: Part-Time
Reports to: Director, Quantitative Analysis
Deadline: November 8, 2019

Description:
The Baseball Analytics team of the Los Angeles Dodgers is responsible for developing novel statistical methodology to support decision-making throughout Dodgers baseball operations. They are seeking to hire a summer intern to join the team. The primary goal of our internship program is to identify and develop talented individuals who may be interested in joining the team full-time in the future.

Job Functions:

• Collaborate with the team to select one quantitative research project, and take that project from start to finish during the 12 weeks of the internship
• Meet front office staff, coaches, and scouts; and get exposure to various aspects of baseball operations

Basic Requirements/Qualifications:

• Pursing a degree in statistics, computer science, mathematics or any other STEM field related to data science
• Experience with R or Python
• Ability to communicative effectively in speech and in writing on a technical and nontechnical level
• Experience with advanced statistical models such as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), spatial or time series models, or Bayesian hierarchical models preferred
• Experience with machine learning (e.g. ensemble methods), artificial intelligence (e.g. reinforcement learning) or computer vision (e.g. pose estimation) preferred
• Experience with operations research topics such as optimization or simulation preferred
• Experience with advanced data visualization libraries such as D3 or plotly preferred
• Experience maintaining a well-organized, well-documented code repository for productionizing a data science project preferred

To Apply:
To apply, visit https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/team/jobs.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Position: Amateur Scouting Video Coordinator

Location: TBD, United States

Please note: This position is based in the United States and the successful applicant must be legally entitled to work in the United States.

Primary Focus:
Assist the Director of Amateur Scouting and other amateur scouting staff members and front office with preparation for the MLB draft, particularly in the areas of video and technology. Collaborate with all members of the amateur scouting department with a focus on professional development and cultivating strong scouting abilities.

Scouting Responsibilities and Duties:

• Lead video and other data collection efforts by traveling to amateur and international events, maintaining constant communication with various Baseball Operations staff members for the purpose of collecting, editing and uploading prospect video.
• Write scouting reports on amateur, professional, and international players as directed, maintaining pref lists for current and/or future eligible players.
• Provide technical support to all scouting personnel as it relates to capturing, uploading and downloading video.
• Chart baseball games as required at special events – showcases, international workouts, etc.
• Assist scouts with other ad-hoc data collection requirements as needed
• Complete special projects as assigned by the Amateur Scouting and/or Baseball Operations leadership teams.
• Proactively seek out innovative methods to improve video organization, data collection, and other departmental processes.
• Attend regional and full-staff scouting meetings as required.
• Provide professional scouting coverage during the summer as assigned by the Pro Scouting Department.

Experience and Job Requirements:

• Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with a wide range of individuals including members of the front office, scouts, players and coaches.
• Ability to operate a video camera and navigate through iOS and Windows operating systems.
• Deep passion for baseball with a willingness to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as required.
• Willing to travel frequently and for extended periods of time as dictated by the baseball calendar.
• Baseball playing and/or scouting background is preferred, although not required.
• Previous experience with video cameras and video editing software is preferred.
• Previous experience with high-speed video technology, portable radar technology, and other baseball data acquisition systems is preferred.
• Relocation within the Continental US may be required.
• A valid Driver’s license is required.
• Legally able to work in the United States.

To Apply:
Please complete the application that can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Toronto Blue Jays.

Ah, another Yankees-Twins playoff series. A retelling of a familiar tale. A classic first-round matchup simmering with revenge narratives. A chance for the Twins to change the course of — oh.

It’s over already.

While both NLDS series proceeded to white-knuckle Game 5’s, and the Rays forced the Astros to contemplate elimination, over in Minnesota, the Twins were quietly dispatched by the Yankees in exactly the way pretty much everyone feared that they would be.

This was a brutal tradition of the 2000s, in which the little-guy Twins would arrive, fresh from contention, and the Yankees, cementing their legacy as the underdog-kicking playoff behemoths, would squash them with elite talent and the favor of some twisted gods. Yet another Twins postseason defeat is behind us, and we’re left with more questions than answers. These games have historically been comprised of bummers, boners, and brims pulled low. Today is the anniversary of one of them, and we’re going to examine it.

For Twins fans, this story needs no retelling, but unfortunately, we must relate the tragic set dressing: The Twins dropped Game 1 of the 2009 ALDS 7-2, but had singled together a 3-1 lead late in Game 2. Alex Rodriguez shattered the delicate balance with a two-run shot off All-Star Twins closer Joe Nathan to tie it up. The game went into extras, and in the top of the 11th, Joe Mauer led off, and this happened:

On the one hand, this is baseball: It is nothing without its X-factors. Its chaos. Its precious human element. On the other, you can tell this is a conspiracy because of how grainy the footage is, or at least reasonably speculate. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, I wrote about some dicey intentional walk decisions from the two NLDS series. One worked and one didn’t, but both of them were decisions managers made in huge leverage situations, and both managers tried to put their thumb on the scale of fate and influence the direction one way or another. Today, I’m going to talk about a decision that didn’t end up mattering nearly as much.

Brian Snitker tried to seize a small edge in yesterday’s Cardinals/Braves game, starting Adam Duvall in the outfield over Matt Joyce despite the fact that Joyce is left-handed and Jack Flaherty is a righty. It looked like a weird decision, one that might swing the game, but of course it didn’t. Nothing Snitker could have done, short of conducting a seance to channel the life force of a young Warren Spahn into Mike Foltynewicz, could have mattered.

The Cardinals scored 10 runs in the first inning, an endless deluge of offense, run stacked upon run. They added another in the second, and by the time Duvall stepped to the plate, our game win probability stood at 1.4% for the Braves, though the system doesn’t work well with such extreme margins. The leverage index of that at-bat was a measly 0.11, and it didn’t get better from there; his subsequent at-bats came with leverage of 0.02, 0.01, and 0.00.

So Snitker tried to make a small decision, and the gods of baseball laughed in his face. That doesn’t mean we can’t analyze his decision though, that we can’t evaluate it on its merits regardless of the actual outcome. If this game was played a million times, the vast majority would be closer than yesterday, and in some of those the difference between Duvall and Joyce would decide the game. Read the rest of this entry »

After two elimination games on Wednesday night, the National League Championship Series has its two participants: the St. Louis Cardinals and the Washington Nationals. It’s not quite the matchup most predicted — only four of 32 FanGraphs predictors pegged the NLCS correctly a week ago — it’s hard to say that either team got there cheaply. The Game 5’s were very different; one was a fantastic blowout, the other a fantastic crushing of Clayton Kershaw’s hopes and dreams, and just like that, the National League’s two winningest teams saw their seasons end before mid-October.

The Washington Nationals were a ZiPS favorite going into their series with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not a literal favorite — the Dodgers were still projected to win 51%-49% — but certainly a team that was hitting above their seasonal win total. Over 162 games, there’s no doubt that the Dodgers were the better club, but over a short series of five games, Washington’s Big Three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin match up against any team in baseball. It didn’t always work (see: Corbin’s first relief appearance), but combine the Wild Card and the NLDS, and Nats were able to use that trio in just under two-thirds of their total innings (66.3%). In the regular season, that number was only 40.1%.

Similarly, while the Washington relief corps still isn’t a good unit, they’ve at least been able to use the shorter timeframe of postseason baseball to lop off some of the dreadful performances at the back of their bullpen. Kyle Barraclough and Matt Grace weren’t around to start any late-inning conflagrations (Trevor Rosenthal was mercifully released in August). The bullpen combined for an abysmal 5.68 ERA in 2019, but the seven pitchers brought in this October have combined for a 3.90 ERA. That’s certainly not going to remind anyone of the Yankees, but it’s at least a serviceable group if you’re forced to use them.

In a seven-game series, the Nationals undoubtedly will have to utilize the bullpen more than they did in the NLDS. The two extra games the NLCS can run do not come equipped with an additional day of rest, so it would be even harder to feature a surprise guest appearances from their top starters. Aníbal Sánchez will certainly get another start unless Game 4 is an elimination game for the Nats, and while I wouldn’t count out a Scherzer appearance in a truly high-leverage relief situation, I think you’ll necessarily see Washington rely on its relief pitching more. St. Louis’ offense is not L.A.’s, something that’s not necessarily captured in Win Expectancy calculators, so the average relief outing is slightly less frightening against the Cardinals than an identical game state against the Dodgers. Read the rest of this entry »

For a moment, it looked like Will Smith would be the hero. In the bottom of the ninth, sandwiched between the two cataclysmic half-innings that abruptly ended the 106-win Dodgers’ season, they had a brief flicker of hope when with one out and one on, Smith hit a drive off Daniel Hudson that looked as though it might — might — make him the hero, with a walk-off home run that sent the Dodgers to the NLCS. It was hardly implausible given that the 24-year-old rookie had hit two of the Dodgers’ major leauge-leading seven walk-off home runs this year, or that nearly half the drives hit to the specifications of which he struck Hudson’s hanging slider — 100.3 mph, at a 26 degree launch angle — have left the yard over the past five seasons.

It wasn’t to be.

Smith’s drive fell short as, ultimately and in more gruesome fashion, did the Dodgers. There will be plenty of time to dissect the larger situation but for the moment, consider the batted ball, which had a 69% of becoming a hit and a 46.1% chance of going out based on similarly struck spheroids. When it didn’t, it was just the latest in the genre of hold-your-breath moments that wound up producing mutterings that maybe the baseball has been de-juiced this October — that is, that the postseason ball is different from what’s been used in the regular season.

It’s not hard to understand why this notion has taken hold. So far this month, we’ve seen home runs hit at a lower frequency than during a regular season that set all kinds of records for long balls, and scoring rates have fallen as well. In the blur of Division Series games, many a hard-hit ball appeared bound to go out — at least based upon the way our brains have become calibrated to this year’s nearly-numbing frequency — only to die at the warning track. Yet it’s harder to make the case that something is different given a closer look at the numbers, both traditional and Statcast, at least if you’re not Baseball Prospectus’ Rob Arthur, whose model to calculate the drag on the baseball by measuring a pitch’s loss of speed does suggest something is afoot. More on his latest findings below, after I present my own analysis. Read the rest of this entry »

The ball left Justin Turner’s bat at 70.3 mph, with a launch angle of 34 degrees. Per Statcast, batted balls with that exit velocity, hit on that plane, have an expected batting average of .550. A little better than a coin flip. There were two out, and nobody on base, and Sean Doolittle on the mound; there were thousands still left at Dodger Stadium willing the ball to fall, thousands more in the empty stadium in Washington praying for it to find a glove. The Washington Nationals had a 99.9% chance of winning the game. And also, Michael A. Taylor, out in centerfield, sprinting toward it — at the last moment, stretching out his glove — the ball, barely missing the ground, centimeters from escaping his glove.

Had the ball fallen, it barely would have made a difference. The Dodgers’ win expectancy would have improved to something like 0.5%. But that’s not what it felt like. Not for the Dodgers fans who had remained through the preceding disaster, looking for a sliver of hope, the slightest graze of cowhide against grass. Not for the Nationals fans, hoping for something they hadn’t yet seen — a glove closed around a ball for a series-clinching out, an end to the years of futility, the beginning of something completely new. This is where the postseason takes you: Years of your life, untold amounts of time and emotional energy spent, seeming to rest in the inches between a ball and a glove and a few blades of grass.

Taylor rose up and took the ball in his glove, a confused expression on his face. Turner, on the basepath 200 feet away, motioned to the dugout. But even as the game hung, for a few moments, in the purgatory of umpire review, the fans knew, and Sean Doolittle knew, jumping off the mound and into the stratosphere, and Adam Eaton knew, leaping in from right field. It was over. The Washington Nationals had won Game 5. They were advancing to the NLCS. And the Dodgers’ historic, 106-win season had ended. They were nine games too short, nine innings too short. A few runs, a few pitches, maybe. A few inches. Sometimes cliches are cliches because they’re true. Read the rest of this entry »

“Put all your eggs in one basket… the handle’s going to break. Then all you’ve got is scrambled eggs.” – Nora Roberts

For the Los Angeles Angels, 2019 looked a lot like most of the past decade. Despite starting off the roster with the best player they’ve ever had and probably the best player they ever will have in Mike Trout, Los Angeles finished below .500 for the fourth consecutive season.

In some ways, the Angels are baseball’s least interesting team. The organization’s 2002-2009 salad days are long in the past, and while these Angels are never spectacularly awful — 2019 was the club’s first 90-loss season since 1999 — it’s a team that’s blandly assembled to create indifferent results. Being truly awful would have at least elicited a kind of macabre fascination. But these Los Angeles Angels appear to be a franchise focused on blithely existing.

The Setup

Thanks to the presence of Trout, the Angels essentially start off every baseball season with a three-win head start over any team in baseball. Beginning every year with a guy who puts up nine- or 10-win seasons like clockwork is an amazing boon for a franchise. Suddenly, the challenge of building a 90-win team is simply assembling a .500 team using the other 24 players on the roster. It’s a bit like getting Gordon Ramsay for your elementary school’s bake sale; if you can’t sell cookies to your neighbors with the most famous chef in the world in your corner, you might want to double-check the recipe.

And it’s not as if those 10 wins are collected at a price that cripples the budget. With an average salary under $36 million for the next dozen years, the Angels couldn’t have gotten a better deal on Trout if he was bought in a shady marketplace after falling off a truck. Read the rest of this entry »

If this afternoon’s contest between the Cardinals and Braves was a game you were interested in watching, hopefully you tuned in early; if you’re a fan of the Braves, or competitive baseball, there wasn’t much worth watching after that. Here was the Cardinals’ top of the first inning:

Things could have gone differently for Mike Foltynewicz. There was an infield single by Paul Goldschmidt; Freddie Freeman committed an error. If Goldschmidt had hit that grounder at an infielder instead of in the hole, or if Freeman had caught Yadier Molina’s gounder, the Braves escape with a 1-0 deficit in the first. That isn’t what happened, though. After a walk and a double, Foltynewicz was done down by four and Max Fried came in to face the pitcher with the bases loaded. Fried walked Jack Flaherty, more damage was done, and by the time the inning finally, mercifully concluded, the Braves’ were in a massive hole, though not until after a wild pitch allowed Marcell Ozuna to reach, and Kolten Wong to score. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, Jay Jaffe noted that starting pitching has been carrying a greater load in the playoffs this year than in the regular season and recent postseasons. One really good reason for that is the sheer number of very good starters in the playoffs this October. Take today’s games as an example. Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz will go head to head this afternoon, followed by Walker Buehler and Stephen Strasburg tonight.

Below, find a table with the NL pitching WAR leaders this season:

Three of this season’s top seven National League pitchers by WAR are set to start, and try to get their teams a series away from the NL pennant. It’s possible we see a few more of those pitchers throw in relief in tonight’s games, as well. Now, look at this table showing the NL pitching WAR leaders since August 6 when Mike Foltynewicz made his first start since returning from the minors:

We could very well see an offensive explosion today, but the scheduled starting pitchers are some of the best in the game this year, with Mike Foltynewicz joining the group over the last two months of the season. Elimination games are almost always exciting, and these ones are likely to feature great pitching to boot.