Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether the challenge system will inevitably pave the way for full ABS, the degrees of difficulty for two-way Travis Hunter vs. two-way Shohei Ohtani, and (very briefly) reinstating Pete Rose. Then they preview the 2025 Philadelphia Phillies (36:58) with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, and the 2025 Cleveland Guardians (1:19:49) with The Athletic’s Zack Meisel.
If the winter is a time for dreams, the spring is a time for solutions. Your team may have been going after Juan Soto or Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, depending on the offseason, but short of something going weird in free agency (like the unsigned Boras clients last year), if you don’t have them under contract at this point, they’ll be improving someone else’s club. However, that doesn’t mean that spring training is only about ramping up for the daily grind. Teams have real needs to address, and while they’re no doubt workshopping their own solutions – or possibly convincing themselves that the problem doesn’t exist, like when I wonder why my acid reflux is awful after some spicy food – that doesn’t mean that we can’t cook up some ideas in the FanGraphs test kitchen.
This is the first piece in a three-part series in which I’ll propose one way for each team to fill a roster hole or improve for future seasons. Some of my solutions are more likely to happen than others, but I tried to say away from the completely implausible ones. We’ll leave the hypothetical trades for Bobby Witt Jr. and Paul Skenes to WFAN callers. Also, I will not recommend the same fix for different teams; in real life, for example, David Robertson can help only one club’s bullpen. Today, we’ll cover the 10 teams in the East divisions, beginning with the five in the AL East before moving on to their counterparts in the NL East. Each division is sorted by the current Depth Charts projected win totals. Read the rest of this entry »
On Thursday in Clearwater, Florida, Kyle Schwarber was spotted doing something he hadn’t done in awhile: playing first base. Not only did he work out at the position with Phillies coach Bobby Dickerson in the morning, he manned the spot for five innings during the team’s Grapefruit League game against the Yankees in the afternoon. He didn’t field any grounders, but he made three putouts on throws from second baseman Kody Clemens.
For the first time since 2021, Kyle Schwarber records a putout at First Base. pic.twitter.com/IKKeeRhq7F
According to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, it was the first time Schwarber played first base in a game since Game 6 of the 2021 American League Championship Series. He was a member of the Red Sox at the time, acquired from the Nationals in a July 29 trade and given a crash course at the position while rehabbing from a right hamstring injury. Up to the point of the trade, Schwarber’s post-high school first base experience consisted of two games in the Cape Cod League in 2013 and a single-batter cameo in extra innings with the Cubs in ’17. (He swapped places with Anthony Rizzo just before a game-ending wild pitch.) He went on to play 10 regular season games at first for the Red Sox, starting nine of them, and then made nine more starts at the position in the postseason. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Philadelphia Phillies. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
As an aside: I love the tracker, partly because it’s in the best traditions of citizen journalism/archivism, and has been made essential within its niche by the enthusiasm and thoroughness of the people who run it. It reminds me of The Himalayan Database, which is considered the definitive list of all the climbers who have summited the highest mountains in the world. The Database was founded and run not by a sponsor or NGO, but by a single journalist, Elizabeth Hawley, who tracked, verified, and published ascents from the 1960s until her death in 2018. In this age of corporatization, conglomeration, and misinformation, it’s invigorating to see a single trusted list of Things That Happened published online somewhere by people who care about the historical record.
Anyway, last week, I noticed a fresh shipment of ballots from voters representing the Philadelphia BBWAA chapter, which included a swell of support for Jimmy Rollins’ candidacy. By Sunday, as I was looking over Inquirercolumnist Marcus Hayes’ ballot, I found myself experiencing an unexpected combination of emotions. Read the rest of this entry »
Brett Davis-Imagn Images, Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports, Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
It’s roughly the midway point of the offseason, and things are starting to slow down. Most of the headline free agents are off the board, clearing the way for the Trevor Williamses, Joe Rosses, and Caleb Thielbars of the world to find their 2025 homes.
Those guys all signed in the final days of 2024, inking modest deals for National League clubs. Here’s a little bit about all three.
Trevor Williams Re-Signs With the Washington Nationals
I think a lot of us overestimate the significance of geography when predicting where free agents will sign. In Max Kepler’s case, however, we all might have underestimated the role geography would play in his decision. Perhaps it was inevitable that the greatest German-born player in MLB history would head to the state with the greatest German population in the country. Lo and behold, on December 19, the all-time leader in runs, home runs, RBI, and WAR among Deutschland natives agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Yet, aside from helping the Phillies pander to their fans in Germantown, it’s a little difficult to see how Kepler fits this team. Entering the offseason, many expected Philadelphia would pursue a right-handed batter to play left field who could split playing time with Brandon Marsh. Instead, they signed Kepler, who bats lefty and hasn’t played left field since his days at Double-A in 2015. What’s more, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made it clear the Phillies plan to use Kepler as an everyday player, despite the fact that injuries have kept him from playing more than 130 games in a full season since 2019.
Kepler’s limited experience in left field is the least concerning aspect of all this. Whether you look at OAA, FRV, DRS, or Baseball Prospectus’s DRP, Kepler has never been a below-average outfield defender in any season of his career. His strong track record as a right fielder, and his past experience in center, should help him adjust to left. Furthermore, Kepler might benefit from playing a position where throwing isn’t quite as important. Although his arm strength consistently ranks above the league average, he has been worth -3 throwing runs in his career, according to Baseball Savant.
Even if it won’t be a major adjustment, it’s not nothing for the Phillies to ask Kepler to re-learn a position after almost 10 years away. It makes me think of the movie line I quote more often than any other. In Moneyball, when Billy Beane tries to convince catcher Scott Hatteberg that he can play first base, Beane asks Ron Washington to tell Hatteberg that’s it not that hard. “It’s incredibly hard,” Washington replies. Read the rest of this entry »
Swaddled comfortably beneath the tree of Phillies fans this year was Jesús Luzardo, whom the club acquired from the Miami Marlins on December 22 along with upper-level minor league catcher Paul McIntosh. In exchange, the Marlins received Top 100 prospect and teenage leather-wizard Starlyn Caba, plus A-ball outfield prospect Emaarion Boyd.
The 27-year-old Luzardo, who is under contract for the next two years, has amassed a 4.29 career ERA in 512 innings across parts of six big league seasons. He has been subject to quite a bit of career turbulence since he was a high school senior. He had Tommy John surgery in March 2016; a few months later, the Nationals drafted him in the third round. Then, after just three starts in the Nationals organization, he was traded to the Athletics, along with Blake Treinen, for Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. With Oakland, Luzardo grew into one of baseball’s top handful of prospects and ranked sixth overall at the start of the 2020 season; the shortened COVID campaign became his rookie graduation year. When Luzardo got off to a rocky start in 2021, the A’s put him in the bullpen, then traded him to Miami at the deadline for Starling Marte.
For parts of the last three and a half years, Luzardo has been one of the better lefty starters in baseball when healthy, and he’s fourth among qualified southpaws in strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2022. But consistent health has evaded him. Luzardo has exceeded 20 starts in a season only once in his entire career. His injuries haven’t always been arm-related, but they still represented a concern for any team that was looking to acquire him. In 2024, he posted a career-low strikeout rate (21.2%), albeit in just 66 2/3 innings. He was shut down with elbow soreness early in the season, and then, back in June, he was shelved for the remainder of the year with a lumbar stress reaction in his back. The second injury likely impacted Luzardo’s trade market at the deadline, which is perhaps part of why Miami waited until after the season to deal him. Five days before the trade, MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola reported that Luzardo is a “full go” for spring training.
While Luzardo will immediately compete with Nick Castellanos for the mantle of “most fun Phillies player name to say with a Delaware County accent,” where he slots into Philadelphia’s rotation is another matter. The depth and quality of the Phillies’ staff means Luzardo is arguably the club’s fifth starter, even though he has front-end stuff. All of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez have accumulated more WAR than Luzardo across the last two seasons. Healthy Luzardo has a fastball that sits 94-97 mph, and both his slider and changeup have generated plus swinging-strike rates throughout his big league career, each hovering around 20% (the major league average is about 15% for both). He’s had only one spat of wildness in his entire career (that 2021 season during which the A’s put him in the bullpen) — dating all the way back to his high school underclass days. He has the talent of a no. 2 or 3 starter on a good team, but he hasn’t demonstrated the durability of one.
The Phillies’ rotation is stacked beyond those aforementioned hurlers. Taijuan Walker is still around, the newly signed Joe Ross has lots of starting experience, top prospect Andrew Painter is returning from Tommy John (his innings will be backloaded in 2025), and Moisés Chace is a Top 100 Prospect who might kick the door down. Injuries will likely erode whatever starting pitching surplus the Phillies (or any team) currently have on paper, and at least one starter will fall off the roster each year for the next several seasons. Suárez is in his contract year, Luzardo and Walker have two years left, Wheeler three. They have the young arms to make in-house replacements during that span without losing any quality. Dave Dombrowski, Preston Mattingly, and company have assembled a rotation with the high-end talent to contend now and the depth to sustain it for several years to come.
The Phillies had also fortified their upper-level catching depth with the acquisition of McIntosh. The 27-year-old has plus raw power but isn’t a very good defender. He has allowed stolen bases at an 83% success rate in his minor league career. Incumbent backup catcher and clubhouse mascot Garrett Stubbs is a career .215/.294/.311 hitter who is entering his age-32 season. Fellow mask-wearing munchkin Rafael Marchán, who is currently the third catcher on the Phillies’ 40-man roster, is a good contact hitter and fair defender, but he has dealt with several injuries during the last three years and lacks any modicum of power. The 5-foot-9 switch-hitter will turn 26 in February and is out of minor league options. McIntosh and recently signed Payton Henry, a 27-year-old bat-first minor leaguer who is now on his fourth org in four years, both bring an offensive element that the Phillies have been lacking from the backup catcher’s spot for several years. Their additions perhaps signal that the Phils are at least considering a bit of a sea change behind J.T. Realmuto and might allow these four to compete for a roster spot during camp and throughout 2025.
In exchange the Marlins received 19-year-old shortstop Starlyn Caba and 21-year-old outfielder Emaarion Boyd. Caba has a chance to be the best shortstop defender in all of baseball at maturity. He is an unbelievable athlete with ridiculous body control, range, and a big arm for a 5-foot-9 guy. He’ll make the occasional overzealous throw that misses first base entirely, but he is otherwise a complete and sensational shortstop. Despite his age, he is basically a lock to be a special defensive player at arguably the most important position on the field.
Caba has also shown great plate discipline and above-average contact ability in the lower minors. He’s a career .252/.398/.304 hitter across two minor league seasons and spent the last six weeks of 2024 at Low-A Clearwater while he was still just 18 years old. Caba has accumulated many more walks than strikeouts during that span and his granular contact data (5% swinging strike rate, 93% in-zone contact, 87% overall) is exceptional, especially for such a young switch-hitter. He does not, however, have a huge offensive ceiling. Caba is four inches shorter than Zach Neto and his bat speed is only fair. There isn’t going to be big power here; in fact, it’s likely Caba’s lack of power will somewhat dilute the performance of his OBP and contact skills — he tends to keep infielders busy. A career similar to that of Jose Iglesias is fair to hope for Caba, while Andrelton Simmons (who had a more meaningful power peak) feels like the absolute ceiling. That’s a good prospect. Caba has existed toward the back of the Top 100 list for the last year and will continue to rank there this offseason.
Boyd is less a surefire prospect and more of a flier. He signed out of a Mississippi high school for just shy of $650,000 back in 2022 and had an average 2023 before stumbling in 2024 as High-A pitchers took advantage of his tendency to chase. Boyd is fast, lanky, and projectable, and he’s a fantastic rotational athlete with above-average bat speed. He had exciting early-career contact performance, but that has dipped closer to average as he’s climbed into the mid-minors. A plus runner, Boyd lacks the feel and technical skill to play a competent center field right now. He has mostly played left field despite wheels that allowed him to steal an inefficient 56 bases in 2023 — he was caught 18 times. He’s raw on both sides of the ball but toolsy enough to be considered a potential late-blooming prospect.
Much of Miami’s value in this return is tied up in Caba, which runs counter to its otherwise volume-driven trade tendency so far under GM Peter Bendix. In most of the several seller-style trades the Fish have made since he was hired, they’ve gotten back several pieces. However, Boyd is a such low-probability proposition that one might consider this effectively a one-for-one swap: two years of Luzardo for a potential everyday shortstop who is likely still roughly a half decade away from establishing himself in the big leagues. While I like Caba as a prospect, this is perhaps an underwhelming return for someone of Luzardo’s talent, but a reasonable one for someone of Luzardo’s actual production.
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
Before Joe Mauer began starring for the Twins, there was Torii Hunter, and before Chase Utley began starring for the Phillies, there was Jimmy Rollins. Hunter, a rangy, acrobatic center fielder who eventually won nine Gold Gloves and made five All-Star teams, debuted with Minnesota in 1997 and emerged as a star in 2001, the same year the Twins chose Mauer with the number one pick of the draft. The pair would play together from 2004 to ’07, making the playoffs twice before Hunter departed in free agency. Rollins, a compact shortstop who carried himself with a swagger, debuted in 2001 and made two All-Star teams by the time he and Utley began an 11-year run (2004–14) as the Phillies’ regular double play combination. The pair helped Philadelphia to five NL East titles, two pennants, and a championship, with Rollins winning NL MVP honors in 2007 and taking home four Gold Gloves.
Hunter and Rollins both enjoyed lengthy and impressive careers, racking up over 2,400 hits apiece with substantial home run and stolen base totals. From a Hall of Fame perspective, both have credentials that appeal more to traditionally minded voters than to statheads, but in their time on the ballot, they’ve gotten little traction. Hunter debuted with 9.5% in 2021 but has yet to match that since, finishing with 7.3% on the ’24 ballot. Rollins debuted with 9.4% in 2022 and has gained a little ground in each cycle since, with 14.8% in ’24. Both have been outdistanced by their former teammates, whose advanced statistics are much stronger despite comparatively short careers; Mauer was elected this past January, while Utley debuted with 28.8%, nearly double Rollins’ share. Still, it appears that this pair will persist on the ballot for awhile, with enough support for us to keep reliving their careers and discussing their merits on an annual basis. There are far worse fates for Hall of Fame candidates. Read the rest of this entry »
DALLAS — There’s only so much oxygen available for big-payroll Northeastern teams that are in crisis despite a largely successful 2024 campaign. And the Yankees, as ever, have been sucking up most of the attention. But don’t underestimate the furor that’s been floating around Philadelphia since the Fightins’ ignominious four-game NLDS exit. Dave Dombrowski has been rumored to have his finger in many pots in the first month of the offseason — an Alec Bohm change-of-scenery trade here, a Garrett Crochet blockbuster there — but as of the opening of MLB’s Winter Meetings, nothing had yet materialized.
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