For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

There’s a lot not to like about this organization, much of which concerns ownership and its commitment to investing in the Pirates’ on-field product. Contrary to the opinions of a surprising number of people, I don’t think the Frank Coonelly/Neal Huntington era was a failure, at least in terms of their contributions. In sharp contrast to the prior efforts of Dave Littlefield or Cam Bonifay, Coonelly and Huntington built up the Pirates in the down years and there was even a brief moment when the team was a real contender. Problem is, when it was time to push the team over the top, to spend all those savings from the leanest of the slash-and-rebuild years on a contender, the investment in the roster never actually came. It turns out that in the eyes of ownership, an even better use of the savings was to not spend it at all and simply keep it. Those Pirates were left to die as ownership served up the Requiem aeternam.

But looking at the players the Pirates have currently, there are some things to like. Now, not a lot of things to like, but there are players scattered throughout the roster who are very good at major league baseball, and the guys who aren’t are at least interesting rather than 32-year-old journeymen (with a couple exceptions that I’ll get into). Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, the rebuilding Pirates took a $6.7 million flier on 36-year-old Carlos Santana, who at this point in his career splits his time between DH and first base. In Pittsburgh, he joins the recently acquired Ji-Man Choi and Lewin Díaz as 1B/DH options; regardless of a positional surplus, perhaps Pittsburgh felt he was too tempting to pass up with the shift ban going into effect next season. It’s hard to think of a player who has more to gain from that rule change than the switch-hitting former catcher, who is a pull hitter on grounders from both sides of the plate: 61.9% from the right side and 70.6% from the left.

As a switch-hitter, Santana sees most of his plate appearances as a lefty, his even more pull-happy side. That brings his overall pulled-grounder percentage up to 67.2%, a mark that puts him sixth among the 203 players with at least 1,000 grounders since his debut in 2010; the only active player ahead of him, Eugenio Suárez, has hit 1,100 fewer grounders in his career. Moving the threshold to 1,500 puts Santana squarely at the top of that list (inactive players included). Read the rest of this entry »

Last Tuesday’s 40-man roster deadline led to the usual squall of transaction activity, with teams turning over portions of their rosters in an effort to make room for the incoming crop of young rookies. Often, teams with an overflow of viable big leaguers will try to get back what they can for some of those players via trade, but because we’re talking about guys straddling the line between major league viability and Triple-A, those trades tend not to be big enough to warrant an entire post.

Over the next few days, we’ll endeavor to cover and analyze the moves made by each team, division by division. Readers can view this as the start of list season, as the players covered in this miniseries tend to be prospects who will get big league time in the next year. We’ll spend more time discussing players who we think need scouting updates or who we haven’t written about in the past. If you want additional detail on some of the more famous names you find below, pop over to The Board for a more thorough report.

The Future Value grades littered throughout these posts may be different than those on the 2022 in-season prospect lists on The Board to reflect our updated opinions and may be subject to change during the offseason. New to our thinking on this subject and wondering what the FVs mean? Here’s a quick rundown. Note that because we’re talking about close-to-the-majors prospects across this entire exercise, the time and risk component is less present here and these FVs are what we think the players are right now. Read the rest of this entry »

Blake Sabol has versatility, Pittsburgh ties, and a bat that could be providing thump to the Pirates’ lineup in the not-too-distant future. A left-handed-hitting catcher who also plays the outfield and first base, Sabol, 24, is coming off a season where he slashed .284/.363/.497 with 19 home runs between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis. The seventh-round selection in the 2019 draft has other notable qualities, as well. Along with being a stat nerd, the former University of Southern California Trojan has an engaging personality that promises to make him a fan favorite if he reaches the majors.

Sabol, who is Rule 5 eligible, talked about his multi-faceted game and his connections to the city he hopes to soon play in during his recent stint with the Arizona Fall League’s Surprise Saguaros.

———

David Laurila: I understand that you play multiple positions and have put up some good offensive numbers. How do you see yourself?

Blake Sabol: “Defensively, I kind of consider myself a Swiss Army Knife. I’m primarily a catcher, but I can be in the outfield and have also been taking some ground balls at first base. I’m hoping to be like a three-level player.

“With the bat, I’ve had a couple of good seasons under my belt — I’ve been able to hit for power and have a good OPS — so I feel I can impact the game that way. I think I can help a big league team. Instead of having a guy who is only a catcher, maybe just a backup catcher, I can be playing multiple spots, or even be in the lineup as a DH.”

Laurila: Your goal isn’t to be a starting catcher in the big leagues?

Sabol: “My goal is ultimately to be in the big leagues, anyway, anyhow. I mean, I would love to be a catcher. There’s a lot of value there, and I think I could do it. But ideally, and I’ve talked with Henry Davis about this, even if we’re splitting games behind the plate, I can go in the outfield or be a first baseman. I just want to be in the lineup as much as possible.” Read the rest of this entry »

While the top of the celebrated free agent shortstop market has yet to roll into motion, the end of last week saw a flurry of action a little lower on the positional power rankings. The Yankees agreed to a one-year, $6 million deal with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, locking up his final season of team control. And as Friday afternoon progressed, four other teams linked up for an exchange of shortstops. A shortswap, if you will.

Gio Urshela went from the Twins to the Angels for 19-year-old pitching prospect Alejandro Hidalgo, Kyle Farmer went from the Reds to the Twins for minor league pitcher Casey Legumina, and Kevin Newman went from the Pirates to the Reds for reliever Dauri Moreta.
Read the rest of this entry »

Fellows/Interns, Research & Development (Various Roles)

Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Full-Time/Part-Time: Contingent
Shift: Various Shifts

The Pirates Research & Development Team

We are a growing team committed to discovering new competitive advantages for the Pittsburgh Pirates. We are collaborative with high levels of communication, mentorship, inclusion, and engagement in ideas. We believe a diversity of perspectives is crucial to delivering championship-caliber R&D, and we encourage all interested candidates to apply if they meet some of the requirements or to reach out if they have questions about their qualifications.

Our hiring process includes an initial call and two rounds of interviews. It may involve a questionnaire but does not require a take-home project.

Job Summary
The Pittsburgh Pirates are seeking multiple fellows and interns to join the team’s Research & Development group. There is a single application for all positions, but candidates can specify particular areas of interest.

1. Data Science Interns/Fellows: In this role, you will use your analytical and programming skills to conduct research, create models, and discover insights that impact all areas of Baseball Operations and R&D. You will learn how to demo your work to decision-makers and colleagues in a supportive environment. The ideal candidate is excited to deliver results on an impactful problem, applying strong quantitative skills to observational, tracking, and biomechanical data under the mentorship of the group’s analysts. Previous sports-specific research is not a requirement. Start dates are flexible.
2. Major League Strategy and Data Fellow: This role will investigate strategic and skill-development questions as requested by ML staff and R&D. The ideal candidate will have a quantitative background and the ability to code in at least one programming language. Experience with a collegiate team, pro team, or training facility is a plus but not a requirement. In this role, you will use existing tools and your ability to code to answer questions and proactively identify opportunities. You will write and disseminate notes on Pirates players, monitoring progress versus goals or other baselines. Excellent communication and organizational skills are required. Those who are solutions-oriented and driven to find competitive advantages at the Major League level are encouraged to apply! The anticipated start date is by March 2023.
3. Biomechanics Fellow: In this role, you will review and summarize biomechanical data collected across the organization. You will use strong written communication skills to alert cross-disciplinary groups to changes, opportunities, and other insights. You will also get hands-on experience working alongside coaches and other staff in training settings, as well as helping impact the organization’s future direction in the biomechanical space. The ideal candidate will possess both an academic foundation in sports biomechanics as well as experience in either a lab or in the field. The anticipated start date is by May 2023.
4. Amateur Analyst and International Amateur Analyst Fellows: In this role, you will code and implement solutions to analyze amateur players. You will flag interesting players and prepare information from a multitude of data sources for deeper discussion. The ideal candidate will bring attention to detail in executing on in-season process while also adding creativity and open-mindedness to our processes. You should have a foundation in a quantitative field with experience coding in at least one programming language. Experience with analyzing players, particularly amateur players, is a plus but not a requirement. Being bilingual is also a plus but not required. The anticipated start date for the domestic amateur position is by February 2023.

Responsibilities:

1. Analyze and interpret data, disseminating findings to stakeholders throughout the organization through a combination of written and verbal communication.
2. Develop and deploy models, reports, and other tools.
3. Answer questions from field staff and front-office personnel.
4. Collaborate regularly with the entire R&D team.
5. Think creatively!

The Pirates Why

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a storied franchise in Major League Baseball who are reinventing themselves on every level. Boldly and relentlessly pursuing excellence by:

• purposefully developing a player and people-centered culture;
• deeply connecting with our fans, partners, and colleagues;
• passionately creating lifetime memories for generations of families and friends; and
• meaningfully impacting our communities and the game of baseball.

At the Pirates, we believe in the power of a diverse workforce and strive to create an inclusive culture centered in Passion, Innovation, Respect, Accountability, Teamwork, Empathy, and Service.

Position Requirements:

Required:

1. Authorized to work lawfully in the United States.
2. Degree or demonstrated experience in a quantitative field such as mathematics, computer science, operations research, economics, statistics, physics, or data science.
3. Interest in developing a passion for sports analysis, and/or competitive drive to discover advantages for the Pirates.
4. Proficiency in at least one statistical programming language (e.g. R, Python).
5. Current college sophomore or above.

Desired:

1. At least a college junior (internship level) or senior/postgraduate (fellowship level).
2. Bayesian/Hierarchical modeling.
3. Optimization
4. Computer vision (e.g. Open CV)
5. Deep learning (e.g. TensorFlow)
6. Physics

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Pittsburgh Pirates.

In a slightly unexpected but not at all shocking move, the Tampa Bay Rays sent first baseman Ji-Man Choi to the Pittsburgh Pirates last Thursday in exchange for low-minors pitching prospect Jack Hartman. The move was a little surprising, at least to those not familiar with Tampa Bay’s 40-man picture. Choi is a talented, inexpensive player who played a clear role for the Rays. He established himself as a fan favorite at Tropicana Field over the past five years, and there was a brief time this offseason (for about four or five hours) when he was the longest-tenured position player in Tampa. He has no clear successor in the Rays organization. Even Choi himself seemed to be caught off guard by the move. The swap was rather unexpected from a Pirates perspective, too. I can’t say I thought we’d see a rebuilding team send away a prospect for a veteran in one of the first noteworthy trades of the offseason.

Upon closer inspection, however, it’s easy to see why both teams swung this deal. The Rays have a surplus of young players in the majors who need playing time and a surplus of young players in the minors who will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this December if they aren’t added to the 40-man roster. Choi is a known quantity on the wrong side of 30 who doesn’t offer much in the way of positional flexibility – aside from the occasional full split at first base, that is. This is more than a simple salary dump on Tampa’s part; they have better ways to use Choi’s roster spot, an unfortunate reality for fans who grew to love his joyful attitude and impassioned bat flips. As for Pittsburgh, they finished the 2022 season without a regular first baseman and needed to find someone to fill that hole. They may not be contenders, but they still have to play 162 games, and adding another good bat to the middle of the lineup will make those games far more watchable. As an added bonus, if everything goes right, the Pirates could find themselves sneaking into contention in a weak NL Central division. Adding Choi would look like a brilliant move in retrospect. More likely, the Pirates will fall out of contention by the trade deadline and flip Choi for a lottery ticket or two. Read the rest of this entry »

Who was the Nationals’ best player in 2022? Before you try to answer, I should acknowledge that this is not a fair question to ask. For starters, it’s a trick question. More importantly, you haven’t been watching the Nationals. You’ve been doing the best you can to avoid even thinking about the Nationals. That’s called self-care, and I commend you for it. Even the Nationals’ general manager called it “a daily grind to come here and lose baseball games.” He also called trading Juan Soto a “courageous move by ownership,” so maybe don’t listen to him.

Regardless, go ahead and give it a shot! Keibert Ruiz would be a reasonable guess. The promising young catcher posted 1.7 WAR this season. You could also be forgiven for going with Joey Meneses, who put up 1.5 WAR in just 228 plate appearances since his promotion in August. Read the rest of this entry »

I have a history with Malcom Nunez. I started writing about baseball in 2018. I was a long-time Cardinals fan, but knew basically nothing about the outer reaches of the farm system, like many lifelong but inherently casual fans. And I was drinking from the firehose of second-wave sabermetrics; I’m inherently biased to think statistics can help me make sense of the world, and the language of numbers was a familiar and welcome sight in my baseball analysis.

Nunez set the DSL on fire that summer. He hit .415/.497/.774, which hardly sounds like a real baseball line. He had more extra-base hits than strikeouts. This was the new hitting god the Cardinals deserved, the next heir to the Pujols mantle. Doing that at age 17 when I was just learning the ropes left an indelible impression in my mind. I heard explanations for why he shouldn’t be a top prospect — he was a man among boys, he was bound for first base, there wasn’t much development left in him, he was simply so far away from the majors — but in my heart I didn’t really believe them.

I’ve changed. These days, I understand completely why factors like that are important context, and often more important than the numbers themselves. I know not to trust such a short sample, or at least to discount it heavily in my mind. Nunez has been a perfectly fine prospect — 18th-best on the Cardinals, per The Board — but not the world-beater I dreamed up four years ago. He’s played the entire season at Double-A Springfield, and while he’s put up an above-average batting line at first base, his best highlights have been on the receiving end of some crazy Masyn Winn throws. Still, when I see Nunez’s name, some small part of my brain still goes “ooh, that guy’s great!” So when the Cardinals traded him yesterday, I had to write about it.

The full deal: St. Louis sent Nunez and swingman Johan Oviedo to the Pirates in exchange for José Quintana and Chris Stratton. It is, in many ways, a standard trade of currently useful pitching for potentially interesting players. It’s also a move that shouldn’t stand on its own. Let’s break down each part. Read the rest of this entry »

The trade deadline is nearly here and once again, team behavior will be affected by 40-man roster dynamics. Teams with an especially high number of currently-rostered players under contract for 2023 and prospects who need to be added to the 40-man in the offseason have what is often called a 40-man “crunch,” “overage,” or need to “churn.” This means the team has incentive to clear its overflow of players by either packaging several to acquire just one in return, or by trading for something the club can keep — international pool space, comp picks, or, more typically, younger players whose 40-man clocks are further from midnight — rather than do nothing and later lose some of those players to waivers or in the Rule 5 Draft. Teams can take care of this issue with transactions between the end of the season and the 40-man roster deadline in November, but a contending team with a crunch has more incentive to do something before the trade deadline so the results of those deals can bolster the club’s ability to reach the postseason.

In an effort to see whose depth might influence trade behavior, I assess teams’ 40-man futures every year. This exercise is done by using the RosterResource Depth Chart pages to examine current 40-man situations, subtracting pending free agents using the Team Payroll tab, and then weighing the December 2022 Rule 5 eligible prospects (or players who became eligible in past seasons and are having a strong year) to see which clubs have the biggest crunch coming. I then make an educated guess about which of those orgs might behave differently in the trade market as a result.

Some quick rules about 40-man rosters. Almost none of them contain exactly 40 players in-season because teams can add a player to the 40 to replace one who is on the 60-day injured list. In the offseason, teams don’t get extra spots for injured players and have to get down to 40 precisely, so if they want to keep some of their injury fill-ins, they have to cut someone else from the 40-man to make room. Read the rest of this entry »