The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

With his wiry frame, Rockette-like leg kick, and flowing blond locks — once upon a time, braided into cornrows — Bronson Arroyo certainly cut a memorable figure on the mound. The tall right-hander (sources ranged between 6-foot-3 and 6-foot-5) made just one All-Star team while spending parts of 16 seasons in the majors from 2000–17, but he established himself as one of the game’s most durable workhorses while pitching for several contenders, first in Boston, where he was part of the drought-ending 2004 champions (and the last player active from that team), and then in Cincinnati.

Arroyo didn’t have dominant stuff. In fact, based on data going back to 2002 from Baseball Info Solutions, his average fastball velocity never cracked 90 mph, but the combination of his breaking and offspeed pitches and the deception produced by his delivery and variable release points helped him produce plenty of soft contact. He was among the game’s best at generating pop ups and suppressing batting average on balls in play.

A willingness to improvise helped. “Maybe I’ve never thrown a fricking sidearm changeup, but you know what, I can’t get this m———– out, so I’m going to throw him a sidearm changeup and get him out,” Arroyo told Sports Illustrated’s Ben Reiter in 2013. “To be honest with you, there ain’t many people who have ever played this game who are going to keep up with me mentally, picking hitters apart with the s— that I have.” Read the rest of this entry »

After five seasons and four different teams, Andrew McCutchen is returning to the ballclub where it all began. On Friday morning, the 36-year-old outfielder came to terms with the Pirates on a one-year, $5 million contract. The deal is pending a physical, but the official hype video is already up on Twitter.

McCutchen was remarkable in his first stint with Pittsburgh, putting up 46 WAR from 2009 to ’17. Only five players were more valuable during those nine years: Mike Trout, Buster Posey, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, and Robinson Canó. McCutchen hit 203 home runs, stole 171 bases, and led the Pirates to three straight postseason appearances, including their first in more than 20 years. He’s the best player in the history of PNC Park and the greatest Pirate since Barry Bonds. Read the rest of this entry »

Long, successful baseball careers usually have a predictable shape to them. A young, highly-regarded prospect gets his first cup of coffee, then becomes a full-time starter over the next few years, possibly ascending to star level. Then he slowly ages and declines, riding off into the sunset in his late 30s. Some choose not to follow that trend. Jamie Moyer pitched twice as many innings in his 40s as he did in his 20s, finally retiring at the absurd age of 49. In 1965, a 59-year-old Satchel Paige returned to the majors for one more game, and despite his signing being a largely ceremonial move, he still tossed three scoreless innings.

Then there’s Rich Hill. First drafted out of high school in a different millennium, Hill debuted with the Cubs in 2005 at age 25. Over the next decade, he bounced around the league, often struggling with elbow injuries and poor command. At the end of 2014, Hill was a 34-year-old who had played for six different teams, only completing 100 frames in a season once. After opting out of a minor league deal with the Nationals in the middle of the 2015 season, Hill ran out of offers with affiliated clubs. He signed with the independent Long Island Ducks and laid waste to his Atlantic League competition… for two starts. Hill was then tendered a big league contract with his hometown team, the Red Sox, had four excellent starts to close out the season, and has held down a big league roster spot ever since. Hill will begin the upcoming spring training by celebrating his 43rd birthday, making him the oldest major league player since the then 45-year-old Ichiro Suzuki last suited up in 2019. The Pirates will be his 12th team, making him one of just six players to appear for a dozen or more clubs.

When a slightly younger Hill signed with the Red Sox (for the seventh time in his career), Ben Clemens used the prophetic projection system RiPS (Rich is Pitching Superlatively) to forecast a 4.15 ERA and 1.7 WAR for his 2022 season. Hill’s actual numbers? A 4.27 ERA (but a 4.13 SIERA), and 1.8 WAR. Not bad, RiPS. But it gets even better. Ben wrote, “If he pitches to this line, he’ll earn $8 million next year and be well worth it for Boston.” In 2023, the Pirates will be paying Hill (checks notes) $8 million on the dot. Can we get some RiPS projected standings for the season? They might even turn out to be more accurate than the baseball Reddit’s marble race simulations. Read the rest of this entry »

Catchers are not the swiftest of ballplayers, yet they’ve been moving around this winter like hot potatoes. Willson Contreras went to St. Louis as the heir to Yadier Molina’s throne. Sean Murphy, William Contreras, and Manny Piña switched places in the biggest trade of the hot stove season. Veterans Christian Vásquez, Mike Zunino, and Luke Maile changed uniforms as well. As things currently stand, more than a dozen clubs will have a new primary catcher in 2023.

The shuffle continued within the past week, with the news that three more backstops are moving teams. On December 15, the Mets signed Omar Narváez to a one-year, $8 million contract with a $7 million player option for 2024. Two days later, the Pirates signed Austin Hedges on a one-year, $5 million deal. Then, late on December 21, the Mets sent James McCann to the Orioles for a player to be named later. Hedges and McCann have already been added to the Pirates and Orioles rosters, respectively; the Mets have yet to announce Narváez. Read the rest of this entry »

MLB’s annual winter meetings usually prompt free-agent signings. The last time they were held before COVID-19 interrupted the league’s yearly schedule, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Anthony Rendon all signed. This year feels like more of the same; Jacob deGrom signed in the leadup to the meetings, Trea Turner and Justin Verlander signed during them, and several other top free agents are rumored to be next.

But not every signing can be thunderous. The Pirates aren’t going to make the World Series next year. They probably won’t win 80 games; they went 62–100 in 2022 and haven’t approached .500 since they went 82–79 in 2018. But they made two signings on Tuesday in San Diego, adding Vince Velasquez and Jarlín García on one-year deals worth $3.15 million and $2.5 million, respectively. García’s deal also contains a club option for 2024 worth $3.25 million.

Neither of these deals will alter the balance of power in the NL Central, but I think both make plenty of sense for Pittsburgh. Let’s start with the starter — or at least, the pitcher who more resembles a starter. Velasquez flashed tantalizing potential over five-plus seasons with the Phillies, but inconsistent command and secondaries held him back. He spent 2022 on the White Sox as a swingman, jumping to the rotation when injuries hit the projected starters. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

There’s a lot not to like about this organization, much of which concerns ownership and its commitment to investing in the Pirates’ on-field product. Contrary to the opinions of a surprising number of people, I don’t think the Frank Coonelly/Neal Huntington era was a failure, at least in terms of their contributions. In sharp contrast to the prior efforts of Dave Littlefield or Cam Bonifay, Coonelly and Huntington built up the Pirates in the down years and there was even a brief moment when the team was a real contender. Problem is, when it was time to push the team over the top, to spend all those savings from the leanest of the slash-and-rebuild years on a contender, the investment in the roster never actually came. It turns out that in the eyes of ownership, an even better use of the savings was to not spend it at all and simply keep it. Those Pirates were left to die as ownership served up the Requiem aeternam.

But looking at the players the Pirates have currently, there are some things to like. Now, not a lot of things to like, but there are players scattered throughout the roster who are very good at major league baseball, and the guys who aren’t are at least interesting rather than 32-year-old journeymen (with a couple exceptions that I’ll get into). Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, the rebuilding Pirates took a $6.7 million flier on 36-year-old Carlos Santana, who at this point in his career splits his time between DH and first base. In Pittsburgh, he joins the recently acquired Ji-Man Choi and Lewin Díaz as 1B/DH options; regardless of a positional surplus, perhaps Pittsburgh felt he was too tempting to pass up with the shift ban going into effect next season. It’s hard to think of a player who has more to gain from that rule change than the switch-hitting former catcher, who is a pull hitter on grounders from both sides of the plate: 61.9% from the right side and 70.6% from the left.

As a switch-hitter, Santana sees most of his plate appearances as a lefty, his even more pull-happy side. That brings his overall pulled-grounder percentage up to 67.2%, a mark that puts him sixth among the 203 players with at least 1,000 grounders since his debut in 2010; the only active player ahead of him, Eugenio Suárez, has hit 1,100 fewer grounders in his career. Moving the threshold to 1,500 puts Santana squarely at the top of that list (inactive players included). Read the rest of this entry »

Last Tuesday’s 40-man roster deadline led to the usual squall of transaction activity, with teams turning over portions of their rosters in an effort to make room for the incoming crop of young rookies. Often, teams with an overflow of viable big leaguers will try to get back what they can for some of those players via trade, but because we’re talking about guys straddling the line between major league viability and Triple-A, those trades tend not to be big enough to warrant an entire post.

Over the next few days, we’ll endeavor to cover and analyze the moves made by each team, division by division. Readers can view this as the start of list season, as the players covered in this miniseries tend to be prospects who will get big league time in the next year. We’ll spend more time discussing players who we think need scouting updates or who we haven’t written about in the past. If you want additional detail on some of the more famous names you find below, pop over to The Board for a more thorough report.

The Future Value grades littered throughout these posts may be different than those on the 2022 in-season prospect lists on The Board to reflect our updated opinions and may be subject to change during the offseason. New to our thinking on this subject and wondering what the FVs mean? Here’s a quick rundown. Note that because we’re talking about close-to-the-majors prospects across this entire exercise, the time and risk component is less present here and these FVs are what we think the players are right now. Read the rest of this entry »

Blake Sabol has versatility, Pittsburgh ties, and a bat that could be providing thump to the Pirates’ lineup in the not-too-distant future. A left-handed-hitting catcher who also plays the outfield and first base, Sabol, 24, is coming off a season where he slashed .284/.363/.497 with 19 home runs between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis. The seventh-round selection in the 2019 draft has other notable qualities, as well. Along with being a stat nerd, the former University of Southern California Trojan has an engaging personality that promises to make him a fan favorite if he reaches the majors.

Sabol, who is Rule 5 eligible, talked about his multi-faceted game and his connections to the city he hopes to soon play in during his recent stint with the Arizona Fall League’s Surprise Saguaros.

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David Laurila: I understand that you play multiple positions and have put up some good offensive numbers. How do you see yourself?

Blake Sabol: “Defensively, I kind of consider myself a Swiss Army Knife. I’m primarily a catcher, but I can be in the outfield and have also been taking some ground balls at first base. I’m hoping to be like a three-level player.

“With the bat, I’ve had a couple of good seasons under my belt — I’ve been able to hit for power and have a good OPS — so I feel I can impact the game that way. I think I can help a big league team. Instead of having a guy who is only a catcher, maybe just a backup catcher, I can be playing multiple spots, or even be in the lineup as a DH.”

Laurila: Your goal isn’t to be a starting catcher in the big leagues?

Sabol: “My goal is ultimately to be in the big leagues, anyway, anyhow. I mean, I would love to be a catcher. There’s a lot of value there, and I think I could do it. But ideally, and I’ve talked with Henry Davis about this, even if we’re splitting games behind the plate, I can go in the outfield or be a first baseman. I just want to be in the lineup as much as possible.” Read the rest of this entry »

While the top of the celebrated free agent shortstop market has yet to roll into motion, the end of last week saw a flurry of action a little lower on the positional power rankings. The Yankees agreed to a one-year, $6 million deal with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, locking up his final season of team control. And as Friday afternoon progressed, four other teams linked up for an exchange of shortstops. A shortswap, if you will.

Gio Urshela went from the Twins to the Angels for 19-year-old pitching prospect Alejandro Hidalgo, Kyle Farmer went from the Reds to the Twins for minor league pitcher Casey Legumina, and Kevin Newman went from the Pirates to the Reds for reliever Dauri Moreta.
Read the rest of this entry »