Archive for Reds

Top 33 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Cincinnati Reds. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

**Editor’s Note: Shed Long was removed from this list after the Seattle Mariners list was published. Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray were removed after the Dodgers list was published.**

Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Nick Senzel 23.4 AAA 3B 2018 60
2 Taylor Trammell 21.2 A+ LF 2021 60
3 Hunter Greene 19.3 A RHP 2021 50
4 Jonathan India 22.0 A 3B 2020 50
5 Tyler Stephenson 22.3 A+ C 2020 50
6 Tony Santillan 21.6 AA RHP 2020 50
7 Jose Siri 23.4 AA CF 2020 45+
8 Vladimir Gutierrez 23.2 AA RHP 2019 45
9 Mike Siani 19.4 R CF 2022 45
10 Jose Garcia 20.7 A SS 2021 40+
11 Lyon Richardson 18.9 R RHP 2022 40+
12 TJ Friedl 23.3 AA CF 2019 40
13 Joel Kuhnel 23.8 A+ RHP 2020 40
14 Stuart Fairchild 22.7 A+ CF 2020 40
15 Keury Mella 25.3 MLB RHP 2019 40
16 Bren Spillane 22.2 R 1B 2021 40
17 Jimmy Herget 25.2 AAA RHP 2019 40
18 Danny Lantigua 19.7 R RF 2023 40
19 Rylan Thomas 21.4 R 1B 2021 40
20 Mariel Bautista 21.1 R CF 2021 40
21 Ryan Hendrix 24.0 A+ RHP 2019 40
22 Jose Lopez 25.3 AAA RHP 2019 40
23 Miguel Hernandez 19.6 R SS 2023 40
24 James Marinan 20.1 R RHP 2022 40
25 Michael Beltre 23.4 A+ CF 2021 35+
26 Cash Case 19.6 R 2B 2022 35+
27 Jacob Heatherly 20.5 R LHP 2021 35+
28 Edwin Yon 20.4 R RF 2023 35+
29 Debby Santana 18.3 R 3B 2023 35+

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Tennessee (CIN)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/70 55/55 40/55 55/55 45/55 55/55

Several freak injuries upended Senzel’s 2018. He missed most of May battling vertigo symptoms for the second time in nine months (they first started in late August ’17), then fractured a finger in late-June and missed the rest of the season. He was supposed to play in the Fall League, but a return of the left elbow pain he had played through during the year became severe enough that he needed an MRI, which revealed bone spurs. He had surgery and was shut down for the year. When Senzel did play, he was very good and slashed .310/.378/.509 in 44 games at Triple-A while playing second base for the first time in affiliated ball.

Senzel’s likely future defensive home is still to be determined. He wasn’t a very good defensive third baseman early in college but became one as a junior. The presence of Eugenio Suarez led to reps at second base, and Scooter Gennett’s emergence led to what was supposed to be reps in left and center field this fall before Senzel needed surgery. The departure of Billy Hamilton leaves an obvious hole that he could potentially fill, but he hasn’t been seen playing center enough to know for sure. At the very least, he has stumbled into defensive versatility.

Mostly though, Senzel hits. He doesn’t have monster raw power, nor does he seek to take max-effort swings by utilizing a big stride or leg kick. Instead, his power comes from precise, high-quality contact. He’s going to be a doubles machine with home runs coming opportunistically rather than playing core aspect of his approach, but he’ll still hit for power. He has the skills and polish of a near-ready star, and the injuries don’t seem like they’re going to be a chronic thing.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Mount Paran HS (GA) (CIN)
Age 21.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 55/55 40/55 70/70 55/70 40/40

Trammell has uncommon on-field self-awareness for a two-sport high school athlete who was only 20 last year. He has excellent plate discipline and an all-fields, gap-to-gap approach that suits his plus-plus speed; everything he slices down the line or sprays into the gap goes for extra-bases.

Trammell also put on a shocking display of power during BP at the Futures Game and hit two absolute seeds during the game. He never did anything remotely like that in the Fall League (nor, frankly, did any of the other prospects who played in D.C. and then later in Arizona) and actually struggled to turn on balls there, but there’s a chance of huge, if dormant, in-game power here, too.

Though Trammell runs well enough to play center field (by a lot), his arm strength still might limit him to left field. That’s where we have him projected, where we think he’ll be a Carl Crawford or Brett Gardner type of defender. He projects as an excellent leadoff hitter with some pop, but there’s a chance he ends up hitting for more power at some point.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Notre Dame HS (CA) (CIN)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 197 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/80 50/55 40/45 45/55 40/60 95-98 / 103

Greene is a generational on-mound athlete whose 2018 season ended with an elbow sprain. A strong two month run of starts in the early summer culminated in a 7-inning shutout start (2 H, 0 BB, 10 K, it took 69 pitches) on July 2 at Lake County followed by his feat of strength at the Futures Game. Eleven days later, Greene’s season was over. He had a PRP injection and rehabbed the sprained UCL in Arizona with broad plans to start throwing during the winter and so far, he seems on track for spring training.

Greene’s development was already pretty likely to be slow. He was able to throw strikes with that upper-90s fastball in high school, but his breaking ball was just okay, and he had no use for a changeup, so both of his secondary pitches were behind other pitchers in the class. Teams needed to project heavily on Greene’s stuff to buy him as a top five pick, but he’s such an exceptional athlete and success-oriented person that many of them did. Focusing solely on pitching for the first time, Greene’s slider improved in 2018. His ceiling will be dictated by the continued development of his secondary stuff.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Florida (CIN)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 55/55 30/55 50/45 50/55 55/55

India was a well-known prep prospect in South Florida, but the combination of a solid, but not spectacular, tool set and seven-figure asking price sent him to Florida. His first two years were about as expected; India got regular ABs but didn’t have any performative breakthroughs. In his draft year, India lost bad weight and added some strength, made some offensive adjustments, and exploded, torching the best conference in the country to the tune of a 1.21 OPS and 21 homers in 68 games. Scouts saw early in the spring that his tools had improved and the performance along with them, but it wasn’t until mid-way through the season that he seemed like a sure first round pick. He eventually looked like a consensus top 10 pick in the weeks leading up to the draft.

India has 55 raw power (60 for some scouts) and is a 55 defender with a 55 arm at third base. He played some shortstop at Florida and could be a limited-range fill-in there, with a chance to fit at second base if needed for longer stretches. We see India continuing to tap into his power, with something like a 50 hit tool and 55 power, with slightly more strikeouts than league average, but has the ability to be a hit-over-power type of player if he and the Reds choose that kind of approach.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Kennesaw Mountain HS (GA) (CIN)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 30/50 35/30 40/50 70/70

Stephenson flew under the national radar during summer showcase season as a prep prospect because he didn’t go to all the big events, but Georgia area scouts knew to keep close tabs on him. He broke out in the spring, going from a top five round follow to the 11th overall pick. Multiple GMs showed up to many of his late playoff games since they didn’t have the same extensive history with him that they did with other top picks. Stephenson has a rare toolbox for a catcher, with a 70-grade arm and surprisingly advanced defensive skills for a 6-foot-4 backstop, along with plus raw power.

Stephenson isn’t a runner and his hit tool has been a little inconsistent, due to both his power-focused offensive approach and multiple injuries in pro ball (broken wrist, concussion). He performed well in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2018 and caught the whole year, which has him on the upswing, primed for a taste of Double-A in 2019 and a future as a big league regular in view.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Seguin HS (TX) (CIN)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/60 40/50 40/50 92-94 / 98

Like Stephenson, Santillan wasn’t a summer showcase favorite, only appearing at one fall event where he showed low-90’s velocity and not much else. He emerged in the spring (this always seems to happen with at least one Texas prep arm), running his heater up to 98 mph and flashing a good breaking ball at times. But Santillan was still a work-in-progress strike-thrower and most teams considered him a reliever. Cincinnati took him 49th overall.

He has progressed well in pro ball, with the Reds’ belief in his makeup and athleticism paying off, as he’s gotten more consistent across the board and is now a little more likely to be a starter than reliever. He still mostly has the big stuff he flashed as a prep, though his velo and spin rates are slightly down. Santillan has mid-rotation upside, but his fallback options if the command/consistency doesn’t work in a starter role would be an above-average multi-inning or high leverage reliever, which is much more valuable now than it was in 2015. Santillan could open 2019 in Double- or Triple-A but the pitching-starved Reds seems likely to give him a big league look at some point next year.

7. Jose Siri, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (CIN)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 55/55 40/55 60/60 50/55 60/60

Siri is a superb talent who can’t help but take max-effort swings at just about everything. His approach and early-career maturity issues (which have improved but still exist) slowed his development a bit and he only has half a season at Double-A despite being 23 and having played pro ball for six seasons. But Siri has great bat speed, power, and an innate feel for impacting the bottom of the baseball and lifting it into the air. If he weren’t so aggressive (he appeared to be under a mandate to see more pitches in 2018) he’d be an easy plus future hit, plus future power center field prospect in the middle of our top 100.

But the volatility created by the impatience, combined with Siri’s noticeably thicker 2018 frame, has created apprehension. His upside is huge, but so is the risk. Ultimately, he shares many traits with Phillies outfielder Nick Williams (though Siri’s a better defender by a wide margin), and, like Williams, Siri might just be such an amazing offensive talent that he’ll be fine eventually despite his issues and several developmental bumps in the road.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (CIN)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 60/70 40/45 45/50 90-94 / 95

There’s a lot of disagreement in baseball about whether or not Gutierrez’s fastball is going to play in the big leagues. It’s certainly not slow, and routinely creeps into the mid-90s. And the combination of Gutierrez’s size and drop-and-drive delivery creates flat plane that plays well with good curveballs, which he has. But the fastball doesn’t spin and doesn’t sneak over the top of hitter’s barrels, so there’s some fear he’ll be homer-prone. Gutierrez is also an incredible athlete with a video game breaking ball and improving changeup, so we like his chances to turn into something, just probably a no. 4/5 starter. He siged for $4.75 million late in 2016 and spent all of 2018 at Double-A Pensacola.

9. Mike Siani, CF
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from William Penn Charter HS (PA) (CIN)
Age 19.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/45 60/60 50/55 60/60

Siani was a well-known name to scouts years before he was drafted because as an underclassman, he was great at USA Baseball’s Tournament of Stars. That put Siani (as well as Alek Thomas and Jarred Kelenic) much further ahead of the notoriety/perceived polish curve than is typical for cold weather hitters. Siani isn’t physically projectable and doesn’t have big raw power, so he isn’t the sexy upside high school player to whom clubs are drawn, but he does have a long track record of hitting and showing plus defensive ability in center field. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm (90-92 on the mound) and gets great jumps on fly balls. There’s a real chance Siani could have four tools that grade out as a 60, along with power that’s a 45 or 50, and he’s much closer to hitting that upside than most 19-year-olds.

40+ FV Prospects

10. Jose Garcia, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (CIN)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 40/50 20/40 60/60 40/50 70/70

Between his lack of reps during the ’16-’17 Series Nacional in Cuba and the arduous process of defecting, followed by slowly working out for teams, then waiting for the 2018 season to start, Garcia played very little baseball for the several months leading up to last season and it showed when he finally put on a uniform. The 20-year-old was given an assignment that matched his loud tools (teams who saw him work out were putting 6’s and 7’s on his speed, arm, and defense at short) but not his readiness, and he was bad early in the year at Low-A Dayton. He came on, statistically, at the end of the year, but didn’t walk much in either phase.

Latin American players who have spent their entire lives playing ball back home, or in Florida or Arizona, sometimes struggle with the early-April chill of the Midwest League when they’re first assigned there; as if being 20 in a full-season league after not playing for over a year wasn’t enough, Garcia may have struggled with this. 2019 should be a more representative sample statistically of what Garcia is. There’s no question about his run, field or throw tools, and he was seen at a bat-first prospect early in his Cuban career, so that might be in there, too. If he can develop some confidence around his offense, Garcia could quickly jump into 50 FV territory, which is where we had him last year based on how he worked out for teams. He signed for $5 million.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Jensen Beach HS (FL) (CIN)
Age 18.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 45/50 40/50 90-94 / 97

Richardson was an intriguing two-way athlete on the showcase circuit, then hit 97 mph repeatedly early in his draft spring and moved into top two round contention. His stuff backed up a bit down the stretch. Richardson had not thrown as much as many of his peers and lacked their stamina, though this could be spun into a positive, namely Richardson’s arm being relatively fresh. Late in the spring, he was working more in the low-90’s rather than 93-96 mph, and his shorter stature and stride length led his fastball to be hittable. The Reds are gambling on the plus fastball returning as he builds strength, experience, and stamina in his arm in a starting role, and he has no. 3/4 starter potential with good, clear checkpoints to watch that will indicate improvement, including fastball rebound and maintaining his stuff into the summer.

40 FV Prospects

12. TJ Friedl, CF
(CIN)
Age 23.3 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 45/50 30/40 70/70 50/55 45/45

It’s still unclear to us whether or not anyone knew Friedl was draft-eligible as sophomore in 2016. At the very least, he was overlooked playing on a weaker team in a lightly-scouted conference. He went undrafted, which allowed him to play for College Team USA, who only found out about him from a fortuitous tip, later in the summer.

Friedl was the sparkplug on the heavily-scouted team that included multiple future first round picks, and a bidding war for him amongst teams that hadn’t yet spent their entire 2016 draft pool ensued toward the end of Team USA’s run. Friedl is a plus-plus runner with good baseball instrincts and a contact-first approach at the plate. He has sneaky raw power that he may tap into with swing adjustments.

Somewhat similar to Stuart Fairchild, both have outcomes that range from upper-level 40-man occupant to low-end regular, but Friedl’s bat is more stable and he’s left-handed, so we have him ahead. He’s almost a lock to hang around the big leagues for at least a few years in some role, even if it’s as a fifth outfielder.

13. Joel Kuhnel, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2016 from Texas-Arlington (CIN)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/70 55/55 45/45 45/50 95-99 / 101

Kuhnel wasn’t a top draft prospect coming out of Texas-Arlington: he had a maxed-out, bulky frame, inconsistent command, and just average stuff for a right-handed reliever. In 2018, he took a big step forward. His fastball jumped 3-4 ticks and hit 101, his slider improved into an above-average pitch, and his command also improved a bit. Kuhnel’s conditioning and delivery improved simultaneously and he’s moved to the top of the heap among the relief-only arms in this system. If he continues performing like he did in 2018, he could get a big league look in 2019.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Wake Forest (CIN)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 35/45 55/55 50/55 60/60

Fairchild had a great draft year. He had a plus arm, above-average speed and defense, solid-average raw power, and performed on paper. The concern was that his swing was a little stiff and had a grooved, invariable path, and it was thought that this might limit his offensive upside and relegate him to a fourth outfielder role. A year and change later, and that’s largely still the report, with likely outcomes ranging from low-end everyday center fielder to 40-man filler/emergency callup depending on how his offense progresses.

Editor’s Note: RHP Tanner Rainey was originally ranked here. He was traded to Washington on December 12, 2018 and is on the Nationals list, which is accessible in the link at the top of this post.

15. Keury Mella, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 45/50 40/45 92-97 / 98

Mella (along with Adam Duvall) came back from San Francisco in the 2015 Mike Leake trade. He’s always been on the starter/reliever bubble, in large part because his fastball doesn’t play quite as well as its pure velocity would seem to indicate and because the lack of a truly average changeup forces Mella to use his fastball very heavily. His stuff backed up just a tad last year. He should still be a no. 5 starter or middle reliever if it doesn’t any more.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Illinois (CIN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 40/55 40/30 45/50 55/55

Spillane burst onto the prospect scene with a gaudy stat line in his draft year at Illinois: 1.401 OPS, 23 homers in 50 games. He’s also not a bad athlete, with a chance to fit everyday in right field, though first base is still his most likely home. Spillane has 60 raw power, plenty for a corner regular, but he needs to either get to all of that raw power (game power is one of his better present skills), or be a 45 to 50 grade hitter to profile in an everyday role. With a limited high-level track record and 41% strikeout rate in his pro debut, that’s still an open question, but that’s also why he lasted until the third round.

17. Jimmy Herget, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2015 from South Florida (CIN)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 50/55 91-94 / 96

Herget is unique among prospects. He’s a side-arming righty with the typical frisbee slider, but he also hits 96 mph and has a good enough changeup and command to get lefties out, too. Herget started in college, worked around 90 mph and was a middling prospect, but the Reds saw potential in his athleticism, his feel to pitch, and his arm slot, and projected he’d experience a velo boost in short stints. They were right. He’s likely to carve out some kind of middle relief role in the big leagues, and will probably get an extended look in 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (CIN)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 55/60 30/55 50/45 45/50 60/60

There are ways to nitpick Lantigua — he’s very likely to move out of center field entirely and he also strikes out a lot– but, ultimately, he’s a switch-hitter with plus power whose two swings are further along than is typical for most 19-year-old switch hitters. Lantigua has big time thump from both sides of the plate and had 26 extra-base hits in just 52 AZL games. The strikeout issues make him a low-floor prospect, but there are very few switch-hitters in the minors with this kind of playable pop, and if Lantigua can hit, find a way to stay viable in center field, or both, he could be an impact regular.

Drafted: 26th Round, 2018 from UCF (CIN)
Age 21.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/70 45/60 30/30 45/50 60/60

Thomas has a unique skillset, which could develop in a number of different ways, packed into a fullback-like body. An everyday corner bat is his realistic upside. He has explosive strength in his hands, which creates 70 raw power despite ordinary bat speed. He’s a well below-average runner, but has quick feet due in part to his football background. Thomas also closed for UCF, sitting in the low-90’s on the mound. Most scouts project him at first base, but he’ll get some looks at third and there’s a chance he’ll get a look at converting to catcher because of the arm. Those most optimistic see arm strength, a competitive mentatilty, and the short-area explosion necessary to move up the defensive spectrum from first base. There’s lift in the swing and current game power skills that make up for a tendency to chase sliders off the plate. Thomas was an age-eligible sophomore who lasted until later in the draft, where the Reds met his overslot ($287,000) asking price.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (CIN)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 20/45 60/55 45/50 50/50

We don’t trust Bautista’s Pioneer league numbers (.330/.386/.541, 12% K% at age 20) because of the hitting environment, but we also don’t want to undersell his physical ability. This is a plus runner with plus bat speed who is also tough to strike out because he has good hand-eye coordination. However, Bautista has balance and swing path issues at the plate that limit the quality of his contact in certain parts of the zone. Once he reaches a level of the minors where pitchers can exploit this, he’s going to have to make an adjustment. If he can do that, his ceiling is significant, because he has rare ability. We’d just like to see the signs that he can.

21. Ryan Hendrix, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Texas A&M (CIN)
Age 24.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/60 40/45 93-96 / 98

Hendrix went in the 5th round in 2016 as a relief-only, power curveball guy (you could also just call it a slider, we’ve heard it both ways) with some command issues. He’s still largely the same prospect. His mid-90’s velocity stands out a little less now than a few years ago and he’s still a little wild, but he is learning how to use his breaking ball more effectively. Hendrix seems likely, barring injury, to carve out some kind of major league role in middle relief starting in the nexy year or two.

22. Jose Lopez, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2014 from Seton Hall (CIN)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 50/50 40/50 50/55 90-94 / 95

Though he had mostly been throwing in the upper 80s as an underclassman, Lopez’s ticked into the mid-90s as he entered the fall before his junior year at Seton Hall. His elbow got sore. After an effort to rehab without surgery, Lopez had TJ, missed his junior seasonand fell to the sixth round.

Though his peak velocity hasn’t returned, he averages about 92 mph on a fastball that touches 95 and features enough life that it’s capable of missing bats up in the zone. His secondaries are mostly average, and he should debut in 2019 as a relief or backend starter option.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (CIN)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 30/40 20/30 55/55 45/55 60/60

Of the shortstops on the main portion of this list, Hernandez has the best chance to stay at the position. His hands and actions are both characteristic of a promising teenage shortstop and he has enough arm for the left side of the infield. Hernandez has also performed reasonably well with the bat as a pro, which is surprising given his clear lack of physical strength. He could have a below-average offensive profile and stay at short, which gives him a chance to be a 50 if he gets stronger into his twenties. If not, he could still be a low-end regular or utiltiy type. He turns 20 in April and should see full-season ball for the first time in 2019.

24. James Marinan, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from Park Vista HS (FL) (LAD)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 45/55 40/50 30/45 92-94 / 97

Marinan had a velocity jump during his draft spring and has had some issues in the two years since dialing in his arm speed and refining his delivery. His velo has varied a bit, but when he’s on, he’ll work 92-94, hit 97 mph, flash an above-average breaking ball, and have the look of a potenial league-average — or a bit better — starter. Other days, he’s just a big guy with a clean arm, some velocity, and little else. He’s further along in the search for starter traits than lefty Jacob Heatherly is, but you can lump them in the same group as talented young arms that need to show consistency.

35+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (CIN)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Built like an old school in-the-box NFL safety, Beltre is a physical dynamo whose entire offensive profile is undercut by his extreme propensity to hit the ball into the ground. Beltre has a nearly 60% ground ball rate over each of the last two years. He does a lot of other stuff: he has raw power, great feel for the strike zone, and is a plus runner, with well-regarded makeup. The quality of his in-game contact is simply not good right now. Stiffness in Beltre’s hitting hands could mean this issue is less about a swing change than it is about innate talent.

26. Cash Case, 2B
Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from The First Academy HS (FL) (CIN)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Case is a bat-first prospect with power and some chance to stick at second base, who signed for $1 million as a 2017 fourth round pick. Early-career hip surgery has limited his defensive mobility, so he’s more of a wait-and-see, somewhat one-dimensional prospect to keep an eye on in 2019. If everything comes together he could be a passable second baseman with game power.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Cullman HS (AL) (CIN)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 208 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/55 30/45 89-93 / 95

Heatherly looked like a first round pick heading into his draft spring, then had command issues and slipped. He then had some velocity issues early in pro ball. The command still isn’t there and even Reds’ personnel describe him as a ball of clay, but he was working 92-94 mph in instructional league and he can spin it, and some think he may turn a corner next season, where his no. 4 starter potential could become more obvious.

28. Edwin Yon, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (CIN)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Yon has an NBA shooting guard build at a long-limbed 6-foot-5. He towers over almost all of his peers and has rare physical projection. He might grow elite raw power, though it will be a challenge for him to hit due to his lever length. Hitters like this often don’t develop viable hit tools until they’re well into their mid-twenties. Yon may take another five years to develop a playable hit tool, but as long as the power develops, he’ll get getting chances to learn how to make contact.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (CIN)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Santana is a R/R corner power bat with a plus arm. His swing needs polish if he’s to hit, and his defensive actions need polish if he’s going to stay at third. There’s a chance he moves to right field and strikes out too much to profile, but he may also stay at third and hit for big power if his ills are cured. He’s on pace to be a 2020 19-year-old in full-season ball.

Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Tweener OF Types
Allan Cerda, OF
Lorenzo Cedrola, CF
Andy Sugilio, OF

Cerda, 19, had a strong pro debut in the DSL and has some bat speed, feel for lift, and a projectable frame. He might grow into enough pop for a corner if he can’t stay in center. Cedrola has bat control, but he’s very aggressive and lacks strength. There’s a chance he hits enough to be more than a fourth outfielder, but it’s still his most likely outcome. He turns 21 in January and could see Hi-A in 2019. Sugilio is a 70 runner whose stats came back down to Earth in 2018 because he left the Pioneer League. He has some bat to ball skills but struggles to lift balls in the air; low-level defenses struggle to deal with his speed.

Viable Shortstops
Blake Trahan, SS
Alfredo Rodriguez, SS

Either of these two could play a perfectly fine big league shortstop tomorrow if asked. Trahan is a heady, max-effort player who play a solid average shortstop. He has some bat control, but well below average bat speed. Rodriguez is smooth and acrobatic but ultimately average at short, and is limited with the bat.

Two Otherwise Uncategorical Hitters
Jonathan Willems, 2B
Chris Okey, C

A 20-year-old from Curacao, Willems had a strong year in the Appy League and has some feel to hit. He’s an aggressive swinger and doesn’t have a position, as he’s well-below average at second base right now. Okey has dealt with a lot of injuries as a pro. A bat-first amateur, Okey is now an average defender and may be a backup.

Huge Power, Tough Defensive Profile
Connor Joe, 1B/3B
Hendrik Clementina, C
Ibandel Isabel, 1B
Aristides Aquino, RF

Joe was a 2018 Rule 5 pick, and his scouting report can be found in our Rule 5 post. Both Isabel and Clementina were acquired in minor trades from the Dodgers. Isabel has 80 raw power and had a strong 2018, but he’s also 23 and hit against A-ball pitching. We don’t think Clementina can catch. Aquino has a 30 bat and a career .306 OBP in eight pro years, which is tough to pull off in an outfield corner.

Pitching Pupu Platter
Reiver Sanmartin, LHP
Jesus Reyes, RHP
Packy Naughton, LHP
Aneurys Zabala, RHP

Sanmartin was acquired from the Yankees as part of the Sonny Gray deal. His fastball has fringe velocity and lives in the 87-92 range, but it sinks and Sanmartin gets a lot of ground balls. His changeup’s movement pairs well with his sinker and he has plus breaking ball command. He’s also an elite-on-mound athlete with a weird, sidearm delivery. His ceiling is likely limited due to velocity but he could be a backend rotation piece. Reyes was an undrafted 21-year-old freshman at Advanced Software Academy in New York in 2014. Cincinnati signed him that August, and he has turned into a mid-90s sinker/changeup righty who is going to rely heavily on his ability to get ground balls. Naughton has a bunch of average pitches and a changeup that flashes above. He’s a no. 5 or 6 starter type, a good return for where he was picked. Zabala also came over from the Dodgers. He’s a heavy-bodied arm strength guy (94-98) with an inconsistent breaking ball.

System Overview
The Reds general direction is building up to their competitive window opening. Rumors persist that they’re willing to spend on top free agent arms, there’s a core developing in the bigs or just short of it, and they’re in clear asset collection mode. It’s interesting to note that arguably the top two assets in the organization (Eugenio Suarez and top prospect Nick Senzel) both fit best at third base, and another top 10 org asset (Jonathan India) also profiles best at the hot corner. These issues aren’t hard to work out — India and Senzel can both play second base and Senzel likely will play center field this year, with incumbent second baseman Scooter Gennett very possibly not a long-term core piece — but it presents some challenges in sorting out their pieces out in the most efficient way possible.

We always say that having too much talent is never a problem, but too much talent is decidedly not the problem on the pitching side. Tony Santillan, Vladimir Gutierrez, and some middle relief types should all go from this list to getting big league looks at some point this year, and Hunter Greene could be the frontline guy they need long-term, but the hurlers on this list aren’t answering short-term questions at the big league level. Once quality depth presents itself on the major league pitching staff, the lineup will probably be good enough to compete, so pitching remains the challenge going forward for Cincinnati. The Reds have new voices running both the amateur and international departments along with a new GM in Nick Krall, but the continuity of President Dick Williams and scouting czar Chris Buckley in prominent roles remains.


JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Scott Rolen

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2018 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

“A hard-charging third baseman” who “could have played shortstop with more range than Cal Ripken.” “A no-nonsense star.” “The perfect baseball player.” Scott Rolen did not lack for praise, particularly in the pages of Sports Illustrated at the height of his career. A masterful, athletic defender with the physical dimensions of a tight end (listed at 6’4″, 245 pounds), Rolen played with an all-out intensity, sacrificing his body in the name of stopping balls from getting through the left side of the infield. Many viewed him as the position’s best for his time, and he more than held his own with the bat as well, routinely accompanying his 25 to 30 homers a year with strong on-base percentages.

There was much to love about Rolen’s game, but particularly in Philadelphia, the city where he began his major league career and the one with a reputation for fraternal fondness, he found no shortage of critics — even in the Phillies organization. Despite winning 1997 NL Rookie of the Year honors and emerging as a foundation-type player, Rolen was blasted publicly by manager Larry Bowa and special assistant to the general manager Dallas Green. While ownership pinched pennies and waited for a new ballpark, fans booed and vilified him. Eventually, Rolen couldn’t wait to skip town, even when offered a deal that could have been worth as much as $140 million. Traded in mid-2002 to the Cardinals, Rolen referred to St. Louis as “baseball heaven,” which only further enraged the Philly faithful.

In St. Louis, Rolen provided the missing piece of the puzzle, helping a team that hadn’t been to the World Series since 1987 make two trips in three years (2004-06), with a championship in the latter year. A private, introverted person who shunned endorsement deals, he didn’t have to shoulder the burden of being a franchise savior, but as the toll of his max-effort play caught up to him in the form of chronic shoulder and back woes, he clashed with manager Tony La Russa and again found himself looking for the exit. After a brief detour to Toronto, he landed in Cincinnati, where again he provided the missing piece, as the Reds returned to the postseason for the first time in 15 years.

Though he played in the majors for 17 seasons (1996-2012), Rolen retired at 37 and didn’t accumulate the major milestones that would bolster his Hall of Fame case. The combination of his solid offense and his defensive prowess — validated both by the eye test and the metrics — places his overall value among the top 10 third basemen in history, but in his ballot debut last year, voters gave him a paltry 10.2% share, though several conceded that they would have included him if space had permitted. Hopefully, he can build support quickly enough to be taken seriously by a broader swath of the electorate, but right now, his looks to be an uphill battle.

2019 BBWAA Candidate: Scott Rolen
Player Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS
Scott Rolen 70.2 43.7 56.9
Avg. HOF 3B 68.4 43.0 55.7
H HR AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
2,077 316 .281/.364/.490 122
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Read the rest of this entry »


The Compelling Cooperstown Cases of Steinbrenner and Sweet Lou

This post is part of a series concerning the 2019 Today’s Game Era Committee ballot, covering executives, managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas on December 9. Use the tool above to read the introduction and other installments. For an introduction to JAWS, see here. Several profiles in this series are adapted from work previously published at SI.com and Baseball Prospectus. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

2019 Today’s Game Candidate: Lou Piniella
Manager G W-L W-L% G>.500 Playoffs Pennants WS
Lou Piniella 3548 1835-1713 .517 122 7 1 1
AVG HOF Mgr 3648 1961-1687 .546 274 7 5 2.6
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
Managerial averages computed by Cliff Corcoran based on 21 Hall of Famers inducted for 20th and 21st century managerial careers. See here.

Lou Piniella

“Sweet Lou” Piniella spent even more years managing in the majors (23, between 1986 and 2010) than he did playing the outfield (18, between 1964 and 1984). To both, he brought a flair for the dramatic and a fiery intensity — his dust-kicking, hat-stomping, base-throwing tirades became the stuff of legend — as well as tremendous baseball acumen. Like fellow Today’s Game candidate Davey Johnson, he won championships in both phases of his career, but his failure even to reach the World Series a second time as a manager cast a long shadow on every successive stop and could limit his chances for election.

A native of Tampa, Florida who was signed by the Indians as an amateur free agent in 1962, Piniella passed through the hands of the Senators, Orioles (for whom he played four games in 1964), Indians (again, with a brief 1968 cameo) and Pilots (in their lone spring training) before winning AL Rookie of the Year honors with the Royals in 1969. A high-average contact hitter who didn’t have a ton of patience or power (as his .291/.333/.409 line suggests), he was particularly potent as a lefty-masher on four pennant-winning Yankees teams, including their 1977 and 1978 championships.

He was also notoriously hot-tempered, known for breaking water coolers even before he arrived in the Bronx. “Yes, I had a bad temper,” Piniella said in 1974, his first spring as a Yankee. “I guess I was trying to succeed too much. I probably was trying to exceed my capabilities and was expecting perfection all the time. When I couldn’t reach it, I’d get mad at myself… Last year, they had a wire mesh screen around the water cooler at the new park in Kansas City so I couldn’t kick that one.”

As a left shoulder ailment limited Piniella’s playing time late in his career, he became the Yankees’ hitting coach in 1984, while still a reserve outfielder. By mid-June, he decided to retire as a player so as to take over first base coaching duties as well. In 1986, he became the team’s manager, that during an era when owner George Steinbrenner was eating managers for breakfast and lunch. Billy Martin, in his third of five stints managing the Yankees, had gone 91-64 in relief of Yogi Berra in 1985, as the Yankees finished second, but he was fired yet again, this time after a late-September brawl with pitcher Ed Whitson. Piniella’s Yankees won 90 games but finished second in 1986, 5.5 games behind the Red Sox, then slipped to fourth despite winning 89 games in 1987. When general manager Woody Woodward resigned following the season, Piniella spent half a year as the team’s GM before returning to the dugout in May, after Martin was canned yet again. Piniella himself was axed after the 1988 team finished with 85 wins. He had two years remaining on his contract, the first of which he spent in the Yankees’ TV booth.

Piniella returned to the dugout with the Reds, taking over as manager in November 1989 after Pete Rose received his lifetime ban for gambling. His first year was the most successful one of his managerial career. Driven by stars Barry Larkin and Eric Davis as well as the “Nasty Boys” bullpen of Norm Charlton, Rob Dibble, and Randy Myers, the Reds went 91-71, won the NL West (the Senior Circuit’s screwed-up geography somehow had both Cincinnati and Atlanta in the West and St. Louis and Chicago in the East) and the World Series, the last by sweeping the heavily favored A’s, the defending champions.

The Reds collapsed to just 74 wins in 1991, and while they rebounded to 90 in 1992, Piniella resigned at season’s end, just weeks after brawling with Dibble. His departure owed more to owner Marge Schott’s lack of support when Piniella was sued for defamation by umpire Gary Darling. Following the reversal of a home run call in a 1991 game, Piniella had claimed that Darling was biased; Schott refused to pay for a lawyer, forcing Piniella to do so out of his own pocket. The suit was eventually settled out of court and Piniella issued a statement of apology, retracting his comments and praising Darling and umpires in general. “But I got no backing,” he said of Schott, who by the time of his comments had been suspended for a year due to racially insensitive remarks. “It got in my craw. That was the big thing.”

Piniella wasn’t out of a job for long. In November 1992, he reunited with Woodward in Seattle, where the Mariners had finished with a winning record just once in 17 years. With young Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, and later Alex Rodriguez, he oversaw the most successful stretch in franchise history. The Mariners finished above .500 in seven of his 10 seasons (1993-2002), making the playoffs four times (they’ve yet to return).

His 1995 team overcame a 12.5-game deficit to finish the lockout-abbreviated season tied with the Angels atop the AL West. The Mariners won the one-game tiebreaker, then beat the Yankees in a thrilling five-game Division Series that ended with Martinez bringing Griffey home with the winning run via The Double. The excitement of the moment helped generate the groundswell of support that secured the Mariners a new taxpayer-funded stadium within a week of the series’ end. Piniella won the first of his three Manager of the Year awards that year.

He took the Mariners back to the playoffs in 1997, 2000 (after Johnson and Griffey had been traded in advance of their free agency) and 2001 (after Rodriguez had departed via free agency). Fueled by the arrival of Ichiro Suzuki, the 2001 Mariners tied the major league record with 116 wins, and Piniella garnered his second Manager of the Year award. Yet his Mariners teams never advanced past the ALCS, falling at the hands of the Yankees in both 2000 and 2001. Often, they were limited by horrible bullpens, and Piniella made matters worse; the 1997-1999 units all finished with ERAs of 5.44 or above and totaled an AL-low 0.7 WAR over that span, squandering the last years of the Johnson/Griffey/Rodriguez nucleus.

After winning 93 games in 2002, Piniella, who still had one more year under contract, wanted to get home to Tampa to help care for his ailing mother. The Mariners obliged by trading him to the Devil Rays for two players. Though he guided the expansion team to its first 70-win season in 2004, the Devil Rays weren’t able to progress further, and he became frustrated by the team’s minimal payrolls. After agreeing to a buyout with one year remaining on his deal, he became the manager of the Cubs in October 2006, succeeding Dusty Baker.

With a cast led by Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Carlos Zambrano (a man with an infamously hot temper of his own), Piniella guided the Cubs to back-to-back NL Central titles in 2007 and -08. He won his third Manager of the Year award in the latter year after leading the Cubs a league-high 97 wins, but in both of those seasons, Piniella’s squads were swept out of the Division Series. The Cubs declined to 83 wins in 2009, and in August 2010, with the health of his ailing mother again in mind, Piniella stepped down for the final time.

Because he managed for 21 full seasons plus two partial ones, Piniella ranks high in managerial counting stats. He’s 14th in games managed, third behind Gene Mauch and the still-active Bruce Bochy among skippers outside the Hall. Piniella is 16th in wins, trailing only Bochy, Mauch, and Baker among those not enshrined. He’s 13th in losses as well, with Mauch, Bochy and Jim Leyland the only unenshrined mangers ahead of him. Due in part to his time in Tampa Bay, he’s a modest 122 games above .500, 41st all-time; even if you wave off his time there (200-285, .412), he’d rank just 27th.

So the positives for Piniella’s case boil down to his longevity, a memorable run that legitimized major league baseball in Seattle, and one hell of a highlight reel for his tantrums. Those are offset by his lack of postseason success beyond 1990 — his teams won just three series in his final 18 full seasons — and a comparatively unexceptional winning percentage. Even if you exclude his lost-cause Devil Rays stint, his .533 would rank 30th among managers with at least 1,500 games.

Ultimately, Piniella’s case as a Hall of Fame manager rests more on longevity — which fellow candidates Johnson and Manuel lack – than it does sustained success. As I wrote when he stepped down in 2010, “In a world where [Whitey] Herzog and [Dick] Williams — two innovators who won multiple pennants, and made the playoffs more frequently without benefit of the wild card — needed a quarter of a century to gain election via the Veterans Committee, I just don’t see how Piniella has got enough to get into Cooperstown.”

George Steinbrenner

Often a bully and sometimes a buffoon, George Michael Steinbrenner III was unequivocally “The Boss,” and occasionally as unhinged as the British monarch with whom he shared both a name and a numeral. A football player at Williams College and an assistant coach at Northwestern and Purdue, he fully subscribed to Vince Lombardi’s “winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing” ethos, often failing to understand that running a baseball team on a daily basis required a more subtle touch and a deeper reserve of patience than his gridiron sensibility could muster.

Nonetheless, aside from Connie Mack and Walter O’Malley, no other owner in the history of baseball was as influential or successful over such a long period. Beyond O’Malley, who uprooted the Dodgers from Brooklyn, none provided his critics and detractors with more ammunition, or unified so many in their hatred. Steinbrenner spent much of his tenure as a cartoon villain, and was suspended from baseball by commissioners not once, but twice. Yet even in absentia, he had the foresight to embrace the dawn of the free agent era, and for all of his tyrannical meddling — hiring and firing 21 managers in his first 20 years, and burning through general managers at a similarly absurd clip — he stayed out of the way of what his baseball men built in his absences long enough to preside over four pennant winners and two world champions from 1976-1981, and six more pennants and four world champs from 1996-2003, adding one final championship in 2009, the year before his death.

And for all of his notorious bluster, Steinbrenner was a big softy at heart, quick to put the Yankees name behind charitable causes and to give players and other people in his organization second (and third, and fourth…) chances, just as he had received. In the end, he was the benevolent despot who restored the luster to the Yankees franchise, turning it into the most valuable property in professional sports at the time of his death, with an estimated worth of $1.6 billion. Now run by son Hal, its estimated worth has climbed to $4 billion as of March 2018 (both figures according to Forbes).

A shipbuliding magnate from Cleveland, Steinbrenner got his first taste of professional sports ownership with the Cleveland Pipers of the short-lived American Basketball League from 1960 to 1962; the league folded midway through its second season. He resurfaced in the world of sports when he led a group of investors that purchased the dilapidated Yankees — who hadn’t appeared in a World Series since 1964, or won since 1962 — from CBS in 1973 for about $10 million, $3.2 million less than CBS had paid in 1964. Initially, Steinbrenner pledged to keep his nose out of the team’s business, saying, “We plan absentee ownership as far as running the Yankees is concerned.” Soon enough, however, he was crowding out his fellow investors, starting with team president Mike Burke, who had run the Yankees during the CBS era and negotiated with the City of New York to renovate Yankee Stadium. “Nothing is more limited than being a limited partner of George,” minority owner John McMullen would later say.

Steinbrenner quickly ran afoul of baseball, pleading guilty in August 1974 to charges of making illegal contributions to Richard Nixon’s re-election campaign and of obstructing justice. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn suspended him for two years (later reduced to 15 months), during which time he exerted his influence via the direction of Gabe Paul, who, while still general manager of the Indians, had initially paired Steinbrenner and Burke. Desperate to restore glory to the franchise, Steinbrenner embraced the era of free agency, signing A’s ace Catfish Hunter to a five year, $3.35 million deal in December 1974, when A’s owner Charlie O. Finley failed to make an annuity payment in a timely fashion. He followed that by adding superstar slugger Reggie Jackson, Hunter’s ex-teammate, in November 1976 on a five-year, $3 million deal after arbitrator Peter Seitz’s landmark Messersmith-McNally decision kicked off the free agency era in earnest, and a year later added Goose Gossage via a six-year, $2.7 5 million deal — that despite the presence of reliever Sparky Lyle, who weeks earlier had won the AL Cy Young award.

Under manager Billy Martin, the Yankees won the pennant in 1976 but were swept in the World Series by the Big Red Machine. They beat the Dodgers the following year, with Jackson, “Mr. October,” tying the series record with five homers, three in the Game Six clincher. Amid so much turmoil that the team became known as “The Bronx Zoo” (not coincidentally the title of Lyle’s diary of that season), they repeated again in 1978, overcoming a 14-game mid-July deficit behind the Red Sox (whom they would beat in a Game 163 play-in) and a blowup between Martin and Jackson that led to the skipper’s dismissal after he said of the superstar and the owner: “The two men deserve each other. One’s a born liar, the other’s convicted.”

Fueled by more free agent signings, particularly those of Tommy John and Dave Winfield, the Yankees won the 1981 AL pennant, but lost a rematch with the the Dodgers. During the World Series, Steinbrenner injured his hand in what he claimed was a scuffle with two Dodger fans in the hotel elevator. Yet no police report was ever filed, no culprits ever found. Hmmm… As the Dodgers clinched in the Bronx, Steinbrenner issued a gauche public apology for his team’s performance, and a promise that plans to build a champion for 1982 would begin immediately.

Those plans did not come to fruition, as Steinbrenner’s profligate spending and meddling led to the team’s downfall. Prospects were swapped for over-the-hill veterans who flourished elsewhere while the Yankees, despite winning 89 games or more four times from 1983-1987, with a high of 97 in 1985, failed to win another AL East flag for more than a decade. After souring on Winfield (whom he nicknamed “Mr. May”), Steinbrenner tried to escape his 10-year contract by hiring a shady small-time gambler, Howard Spira, to dig up dirt. When commissioner Fay Vincent learned of the plot in 1990, he banned Steinbrenner from baseball for life, just over a year after President Ronald Reagan had pardoned Steinbrenner for his Nixon-era transgressions.

The ban didn’t last; Vincent reinstated Steinbrenner as of March 1, 1993, just before being ousted by the other owners. While he remained as feared as ever, Steinbrenner stayed out of the way of what general manager Gene Michael — whom he had already hired and fired as manager and GM in the early 1980s — had done during his absence. Michael curbed the team’s tendency to swap prospects, sowing the seeds of the forthcoming dynasty by astute drafting and amateur free agent signings such as “the Core Four” of Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada, not to mention a brilliant deal that sent Roberto Kelly to Cincinnati for Paul O’Neill and freed up center field for Bernie Williams. He also hired Buck Showalter to manage the club. Showalter’s four-season tenure ran through 1995, when the Yankees reached and were ultimately eliminated from their first postseason appearance in 14 years — at the hands of Piniella’s Mariners — was the longest on Steinbrenner’s watch thus far.

Michael was shifted into an advisory role after 1995, while Showalter departed. Steinbrenner hired Bob Watson as GM, and Watson’s choice as manager was Joe Torre, a former National League MVP who in 14 seasons of managing the Mets, Braves, and Cardinals had won just one division title and produced a .470 winning percentage. The tabloids derided the choice of “Clueless Joe,” but Torre was more than up to the task of managing both the team and the Boss. The Yankees beat the Braves in the 1996 World Series, kicking off a 12-year run that included 10 division titles, six pennants, and four championships, earning him a spot in Cooperstown in 2014.

Steinbrenner’s persona as a benevolent despot emerged during this time in the form of his repeated lampooning on Seinfeld, with series creator Larry David giving voice to the owner’s long and often petty diatribes. His soft, paternalistic side revealed itself in the multiple second chances given to Steve Howe, Dwight Gooden, and Darryl Strawberry, all of whom had battled substance abuse problems. While attaching the Yankees’ name to charities, he bristled at the thought that they should include his competitors. “I would sooner send $1 million to save the whales than send it to the Pittsburgh Pirates” he told his fellow owners.

With the Yankees restored to the top of the heap, Steinbrenner withstood the temptation to sell the team (at various times, Donald Trump and Cablevision both expressed interest) or move it to the suburbs or Manhattan’s West Side. Whatever the legerdemain it took to build the $1.5 billion “House That Ruthlessness Built” next door to “The House That Ruth Built,” he ultimately understood that the Bronx was a key part of the Yankees’ brand, as was the big-dollar spending that brought in free agents Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, Mark Teixeira, and CC Sabathia, and led to trades for Alex Rodriguez, Roger Clemens, and Kevin Brown. Though he chafed at the credit that Torre and GM Brian Cashman, who took the reins in 1998 at the tender age of 30 after rising through the front office ranks, received, and retained a semi-anonymous cabal of Tampa advisors who often undercut the Bronx brass, he finally ceded control of daily operations to sons Hal and Hank in late 2007. That chain of events, which was followed by Torre’s departure when the team was eliminated from the playoffs, led to Steinbrenner receding from the public eye.

Ultimately, the indomitable owner’s legacy is a mixed and complicated one. Neither a saint nor a pure font of evil, he understood that nothing drove financial success the way winning did. He won more often than any owner of his era, and rebuilt the Yankees into the most valuable property in baseball. For all of his transgressions, you can’t even begin to tell the story of a substantial stretch of baseball history without him. Unlike the eight other candidates I’ve reviewed on the Today’s Game ballot thus far, he’d have my vote. But as he came nowhere close to election with either the 2010 Veterans Committee or the 2017 Today’s Game ballots, he’s hardly a lock this time around.


Job Posting: Reds Baseball Systems Developer

Position: Baseball Systems Developer

Department: Baseball Operations

Reports To: Application Development Specialist, Baseball Systems

Job Description:
The Baseball Systems Developer will be responsible for developing, maintaining, testing and implementing web based, packaged, and/or mobile applications to support the Baseball Operations staff. The Systems Developer reviews, analyzes and develops information systems including planning, design, develop, testing, debugging and installation to support the applications and systems of the organization. May be expected to write documentation to describe program development, logic, coding, and corrections.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities:

  • Work with the Information Technology department, Baseball Systems Development staff, Analytics staff, and senior Baseball Operations staff to understand department needs and develop technical solutions that integrate existing and future applications into the organization’s information systems.
  • Employ an iterative software development approach to ensure quick roll-out along with incremental improvements to baseball systems over time.
  • Create specifications through gathering and documentation of user requirements as needed.
  • Work with Baseball Operations staff to prototype and implement user interfaces that are efficient, user-friendly, and aesthetically pleasing.
  • Provide time estimates for programming tasks based on defined project scope.
  • Develop responsive web, mobile, and desktop applications while making use of industry best practices and recommended coding standards to write clear, readable, and efficient code.
  • Ensure code quality with the use of automated unit and integration testing.
  • Responsible for training staff on use of system, including in-person training or videos, and development and maintenance of a reference manual as needed.
  • Provide ongoing support and troubleshooting of all baseball systems, including upgrades to take advantage of new technology.
  • Adhere to Reds Information Technologies security standards, support protocols, and server hardware/software build outs.

Experience, Education and Licensure:

  • Minimum of a BS or equivalent in Computer Science, Information Systems or equivalent; advanced degree preferred.
  • A minimum of 2 years of experience developing enterprise level applications utilizing the Microsoft technology stack including the Microsoft .NET framework.
  • Requires past working experience in all phases of the systems development life cycle (SDLC), including planning, designing, developing, testing, and deployment of information systems.
  • Interface successfully with functional users and clients.
  • Proven track record of building customer relationships.

Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities:

  • Proficient in Microsoft .NET using C# and WebAPI/MVC Framework.
  • Experience using web technologies particularly HTML5, CSS3, and Javascript.
  • Knowledge and experience with at least one Javascript application framework such as AngularJS, Vue.js, React, or similar framework.
  • Mobile development, relational SQL knowledge, and cloud services are nice to have skills.
  • Ability to apply business and industry knowledge to internal applications, databases and systems.
  • Additionally, the position requires developing, reporting from, and integrating existing applications.
  • Passion for baseball, strong intellectual curiosity, and ability to work with a team framework highly desired.
  • Candidate must be available to work non-traditional hours (various nights, weekends, holidays)

Expectations:

  • Adhere to Cincinnati Reds organization policies and procedures.
  • Act as a role model within and outside the Cincinnati Reds organization.
  • Perform duties as workload necessitates.
  • Demonstrate flexible and efficient time management and ability to prioritize workload.
  • Meet department productivity standards.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application found here.

Equal Opportunity Statement:
The Cincinnati Reds are an Equal Opportunity Employer. It is the policy of the Cincinnati Reds to ensure equal employment opportunity without discrimination or harassment on the basis of race, color, national origin, religion or creed, sex, age, disability, citizenship status, marital status, genetic predisposition or carrier status, sexual orientation or any other characteristic protected by law.


Sunday Notes: Skepticism Aside, Steven Brault Would Clone Ohtani

Does Shohei Ohtani’s success portend more two-way players in MLB? Opinions vary, albeit with the bears clearly outnumbering the bulls — at least in terms of expected production. While a certain amount of copy-catting seems inevitable, the presumptive American League rookie of the year paired a .925 OPS with a 3.31 ERA and a 10.95 strikeout rate. He was dominant on both sides of the ball in a way that’s unlikely to be replicated by anyone other than himself.

A pair of former two-way players I spoke to this season are among the skeptics. Which isn’t to say they hate the idea. Nor do they feel the Brendan McKays of the world don’t deserve every opportunity to show they can follow in Ohtani’s footsteps (hopefully without elbow surgery being part of the equation).

Steven Brault created a bit of a buzz by going his first 33 big-league plate appearances without striking out. On the heels of that eye-opening accomplishment, I asked the Pittsburgh Pirates left-hander for his opinion on why a player should, and shouldn’t, be able to play both ways at the highest level.

“The reason you should is that you’re good enough,” responded Brault, who’d excelled as a two-way player at Division II Regis University. “If you’re a good enough hitter, and a good enough pitcher, it stands to reason that your team would want you to do both. The reason you shouldn’t is that you can’t play every day. That’s been the case with Ohtani. On the days he pitched he didn’t hit, and on the day before he didn’t hit. Same for the day after. They had to make sure his body was ready to pitch. Read the rest of this entry »


Angry David Hernandez Might Have a Point

It’s difficult, as a human person, not to arrive at the conclusion that the world is riddled with injustice. Epictetus felt it keenly. Marcus Aurelius felt it keenly. Owing to the infancy of medical science at the time, probably a lot of other ancients felt it keenly, as well.

Among those feeling it keenly in the year 2018, however, seems to be Cincinnati reliever David Hernandez. On Thursday, the winners of the Silver Slugger Award were announced. Hernandez, it seems, was unimpressed by the results.

https://twitter.com/DHern_30/status/1060707951449595905

It should be noted immediately that Michael Lorenzen and Hernandez were teammates in 2018, so there’s certainly a case to be made that bias is at play here. It should also be noted that, in this case, the “people” who “vote on awards” are major-league managers and coaches. These are important points to establish.

What’s also probably important to establish is that Hernandez, whatever the weaknesses of his rhetorical style, doesn’t lack for evidence.

Top Pitchers by Batting Production
Name Team PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wRC+ Bat
1 Michael Lorenzen Reds 34 5.9% 26.5% .290 .333 .710 173 3.0
2 Kolby Allard Braves 3 0.0% 0.0% 1.000 1.000 1.000 472 1.4
3 A.J. Cole – – – 4 0.0% 25.0% .333 .333 1.333 336 1.2
4 Vidal Nuno Rays 2 0.0% 0.0% 1.000 1.000 1.000 486 0.9
5 Kyle Gibson Twins 2 0.0% 0.0% 1.000 1.000 1.000 481 0.9
6 Dan Jennings Brewers 3 0.0% 33.3% .667 .667 1.000 358 0.9
7 Rick Porcello Red Sox 7 0.0% 42.9% .429 .429 .714 207 0.9
8 Enny Romero – – – 1 0.0% 0.0% 1.000 1.000 2.000 721 0.8
9 Randy Rosario Cubs 2 50.0% 0.0% 1.000 1.000 1.000 410 0.8
10 Brandon Woodruff Brewers 10 10.0% 10.0% .250 .333 .625 151 0.6

This is the batting-runs leaderboard for pitchers from 2018. Batting runs account for everything that occurs at the plate. Walk? That’s a way to first base. Grounder to third? That’s also included, in its way. Most of the leaders here have a figure that’s just above zero because most pitchers regress to something even worse than that that.

Not Lorenzen, though. Over 34 plate appearances this year, he hit four homers and slashed .290/.333/.710. Overall, he recorded the top batting line of the year among pitchers with as few as 10 plate appearances:

Top Pitchers by Batting Line
Name Team PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wRC+
1 Michael Lorenzen Reds 34 5.9% 26.5% .290 .333 .710 173
2 Brandon Woodruff Brewers 10 10.0% 10.0% .250 .333 .625 151
3 Brent Suter Brewers 32 12.5% 18.8% .192 .323 .346 87
4 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 57 12.3% 19.3% .239 .340 .283 82
5 Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers 30 6.7% 43.3% .269 .321 .308 78
6 Dan Straily Marlins 43 18.6% 44.2% .161 .350 .194 74
7 Carlos Martinez Cardinals 36 0.00% 30.60% .242 .235 .394 63
8 German Marquez Rockies 65 0.0% 16.9% .300 .300 .350 60
9 Zack Greinke Diamond 71 4.2% 22.5% .234 .269 .297 51
10 Max Scherzer Nationals 78 1.3% 17.9% .243 .274 .271 47

The actual winner of the Silver Slugger, blameless German Marquez, did reach the .300 threshold, but he also recorded just a single extra-bast hit — a homer off a position player pitching — this season. Lorenzen, on the other hand, hit a double and four homers in roughly half the plate appearances.

Homers like this one, after a weird bunt thing:

There are certainly moments when one is wrong to feel aggrieved. For right-hander David Hernandez, however, this isn’t one of them. His teammate Michael Lorenzen both (a) probably deserved but also (b) didn’t win the Silver Slugger Award for pitchers. An injustice has probably occurred. A minor, minor, minor injustice.


Eugenio Suarez Is Always Adjusting

This is Cat Garcia’s second post as part of her September residency. She is a freelance baseball writer whose work has appeared at The Athletic, MLB.com, the Chicago Sun-Times, La Vida Baseball, and Baseball Prospectus, among others. She is a Chicago native and previously worked at Wrigley Field before becoming a full-time freelancer. Follow her on Twitter at @TheBaseballGirl.

The Cincinnati Reds have been surprisingly interesting in 2018. Not interesting in the way your typical contending ball club might be, but interesting in some curious ways. They started off the season with an MLB-worst record of 3-15. They fired their manager, Bryan Price, after four seasons with the club. And in an unexpected move, they acquired struggling former-ace Matt Harvey from the Mets in early May.

In the middle of all of that, there has been a significant — and likely longer-lasting — bright spot. As FanGraphs’ own Jeff Sullivan recently wrote, third baseman Eugenio Suarez has continued to build upon his impressive 2017 breakout season. Suarez’s 133 wRC+ is currently tied for ninth-best in the National League. He’s already hit a career-high 32 home runs this season, and he currently has the 12th-highest ISO in the NL, just two points behind Travis Shaw.

And while his .322 BABIP is his highest since 2015, it isn’t so far off his career norms, and there is reason to believe his healthy batting line isn’t just the result of good batted-ball luck. As Sullivan pointed out in his piece, Suarez is making much harder contact than he has previously. His .373 wOBA is a career-best, while his xwOBA suggests it could even be a bit better.

Suarez told David Laurila earlier in the season that he hadn’t made any adjustments to his swing. But it seems there has been a new development on that front, one that has contributed to Suarez’s success.

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Elegy for ’18 – Cincinnati Reds

The 2018 season wasn’t a great one for either Homer Bailey or Bryan Price.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

Four of five NL Central teams were playoff-relevant for at least part of the 2018 season. The exception? The Cincinnati Reds. Despite having begun the season with hopes of emerging from their rebuild, the team will end the year having improved by only a couple of games over their 68-95 record from 2017.

The Setup

Cincinnati’s last period of competitive baseball burnt out quickly, the team’s most recent peak ending after the 2013 season and three playoff appearances in four years. The Reds weren’t exactly overeager to start rebuilding, an August trade of Jonathan Broxton to the Brewers (during one of Broxton’s ever-narrowing periods of effectiveness) representing the only nod to the future in 2014.

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Baseball’s Most Anonymous Great Player

A couple months ago, Kiley McDaniel posted his list of the players with the most trade value in baseball. It’s not quite the same as a list of the best players in baseball, since the former also considers contract status and salary, but, if anything, the former is more important than the latter. The Indians came out looking good — Jose Ramirez placed first, and Francisco Lindor placed second. But today I’m more interested in looking further down. Jose Altuve placed 36th. Blake Snell placed 35th. Rhys Hoskins placed 34th, and Mitch Haniger placed 33rd. Eugenio Suarez placed 32nd. He was one slot behind Gary Sanchez, and two slots behind Shohei Ohtani. Sanchez and Ohtani have only seen their stocks drop.

Within the baseball industry, it’s widely understood how good and valuable Suarez has become. That’s one of the jobs of front-office people — develop a proper understanding of player value, around the whole league. If Suarez were made available in a trade, teams would fall all over themselves to get in front of the line. But what baseball understands isn’t the same as what the average observer understands, and it’s incredibly easy to overlook what Suarez has done. He’s not a flashy player, he was never a hyped prospect, and he’s played for a non-competitive team. As such, my sense is that Suarez is greatly underappreciated. But, before the year, the Reds signed him to a long-term contract extension, in response to a breakout 2017. Suarez has since followed a breakout season with a breakout season.

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Daily Prospect Notes Finale: Arizona Fall League Roster Edition

Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Note from Eric: Hey you, this is the last one of these for the year, as the minor-league regular season comes to a close. Thanks for reading. I’ll be taking some time off next week, charging the batteries for the offseason duties that lie ahead for Kiley and me.

D.J. Peters, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Level: Double-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 7   FV: 45+
Line: 4-for-7, 2 HR, 2B (double header)

Notes
A comparison of DJ Peters‘ 2017 season in the Cal League and his 2018 season at Double-A gives us a good idea of what happens to on-paper production when a hitter is facing better pitching and defenses in a more stable offensive environment.

D.J. Peters’ Production
Year AVG OBP SLG K% BB% BABIP wRC+
2017 .276 .372 .514 32.2% 10.9% .385 137
2018 .228 .314 .451 34.0% 8.1% .305 107

Reports of Peters’ physical abilities haven’t changed, nor is his batted-ball profile different in such a way that one would expect a downtick in production. The 2018 line is, I think, a more accurate distillation of Peters’ abilities. He belongs in a talent bucket with swing-and-miss outfielders like Franchy Cordero, Randal Grichuk, Michael A. Taylor, Bradley Zimmer, etc. These are slugging center fielders whose contact skills aren’t particularly great. Players like this are historically volatile from one season to the next but dominant if/when things click. They’re often ~1.5 WAR players who have some years in the three-win range. Sometimes they also turn into George Springer.

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