Archive for Twins

Byron Buxton’s Slow Rise to Stardom

The best prospects in baseball generally become very good major league players. When I looked at prospect valuations last year, on average, position players ranked first or second in baseball became three-win players in the big leagues with more than half playing at an All-Star level or above. Those averages and All-Star rates were far and away the best results for ranked prospects, with players just five spots down worth roughly half of what the players who were ranked among the top-two prospects in baseball were worth. There are certainly busts (with Delmon Young at the forefront), but most players do well. When I looked at players like Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. yesterday, one player showed up as bust-like in some of the charts, but I don’t think those charts were completely fair to Byron Buxton.

Here’s the chart showing top prospects in their 600 plate appearances after their first 10 games or so and how they performed over the rest of their careers. Byron Buxton should be pretty easy to spot.

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Prospect Notes: 4/30/19

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

I’m going to eschew minor league lines from last night to talk about the players I saw in the Northeast over the last week. My trip prioritized draft coverage but included some pro stuff due to rain.

Let’s start with Navy righty Noah Song who, like former Air Force righty Griffin Jax before him, has a military commitment that complicates his draft stock. In May of 2017, the Department of Defense changed a policy which had only been in effect for about a year, that allowed athletes at the academies to defer their service commitment in order to pursue professional sports.

Jax has been able to continue pitching after he was accepted into the World Class Athlete Program, which enables military athletes who fit certain criteria to train for the Olympics full-time. This only recently became an option for baseball players, as baseball will once again be an Olympic sport in 2020. The exemption grants a two-year window for training prior to the Games. Considering that it took Jax several months to apply and be accepted into the program, this avenue is probably too narrow for Song. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 41 Prospects: Minnesota Twins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Minnesota Twins. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Twins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Royce Lewis 19.9 A+ SS 2020 65
2 Alex Kirilloff 21.5 A+ RF 2020 60
3 Brusdar Graterol 20.7 AA RHP 2021 50
4 Trevor Larnach 22.2 A+ RF 2020 50
5 Wander Javier 20.3 R SS 2022 45+
6 Jhoan Duran 21.3 A+ RHP 2022 45
7 Jose Miranda 20.8 A+ 2B 2022 45
8 Yunior Severino 19.6 A 2B 2023 45
9 Brent Rooker 24.5 AAA 1B 2019 40+
10 Ryan Jeffers 22.1 A+ C 2021 40+
11 Willians Astudillo 27.5 MLB 1B 2019 40+
12 Luis Arraez 22.0 AA 2B 2019 40+
13 Lewis Thorpe 23.4 AAA LHP 2019 40
14 Misael Urbina 17.0 R CF 2023 40
15 Jordan Balazovic 20.6 A RHP 2020 40
16 LaMonte Wade Jr 25.3 AAA LF 2019 40
17 Ben Rortvedt 21.6 A+ C 2021 40
18 Luis Rijo 20.6 A+ RHP 2022 40
19 Nick Gordon 23.5 AAA 2B 2019 40
20 Gilberto Celestino 20.2 AA CF 2021 40
21 Jovani Moran 22.0 AA LHP 2019 40
22 Devin Smeltzer 23.6 AA LHP 2019 40
23 Blayne Enlow 20.1 A RHP 2022 40
24 Akil Baddoo 20.7 A+ CF 2021 40
25 Luke Raley 24.6 AAA 1B 2020 40
26 Jorge Alcala 23.7 AA RHP 2020 40
27 Gabriel Maciel 20.3 A CF 2022 40
28 Prelander Berroa 19.0 R RHP 2022 40
29 Cole Sands 21.8 A RHP 2021 40
30 Travis Blankenhorn 22.7 A+ 2B 2020 40
31 Stephen Gonsalves 24.8 MLB LHP 2019 40
32 Kai-Wei Teng 20.4 R RHP 2023 40
33 Ryan Costello 22.9 A+ 1B 2021 40
34 Landon Leach 19.8 R RHP 2023 40
35 Griffin Jax 24.4 AA RHP 2020 40
36 Carlos Aguiar 17.6 R OF 2023 35+
37 Johan Quezada 24.7 A+ RHP 2020 35+
38 DaShawn Keirsey 21.9 A CF 2022 35+
39 Charles Mack 19.4 R 2B 2023 35+
40 Michael Helman 22.9 A+ 2B 2022 35+
41 Lewin Diaz 22.4 A+ 1B 2021 35+
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65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from JSerra HS (CA) (MIN)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr R / R FV 65
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 50/55 40/50 60/60 40/50 55/55

Lewis was on the scouting radar early in his high school career in southern California, starring for one of the top programs in the country and showing above average tools at an early stage. Toward the end of showcase season, scouts started throwing around Derek Jeter comparisons, saying that Lewis had a similar frame with chance for a 70 bat, 55 raw power, and the possibility to stick at shortstop with some work. Others saw closer to a 50 or 55 bat and a center fielder, and his draft spring was up-and-down, with scouts that charted all of his games reporting his hitting stats were not strong, though the tools were all still present.

The Twins took him first overall and cut a below slot deal, as Lewis was seen as one of five options in a top tier of talent without a clear top prospect. Things have gone even better than expected for Lewis in pro ball, and he’s hit above league average at every stop and reached High-A at age 19 while improving defensively at shortstop. Most scouts think he can stick there, which was not the case even a year ago, and one long-time scout even said Lewis is ahead of where Jeter was defensively at the same stage. We’ll call it a 60 bat with 50 game power and 50 defense, but there’s ceiling for more in here.

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Plum HS (PA) (MIN)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 55/60 35/55 50/45 45/50 60/60

Kirilloff comes from the Pittsburgh area, hardly a hotbed for talent, but he distinguished himself in the summer before his draft year despite a slightly quirky uppercut swing. By the end of the summer, scouts had seen enough from Kiriloff and Bo Bichette to convince them that these swings could work, and that Kirilloff and Bichette belonged in the top few rounds, with both continuing to exceedexpectations. Kirilloff went in the middle of the first round in 2016, and missed time immediately after playing his first 55 pro games with Tommy John surgery.

He came back for his first full season in 2018 and dominated both Low-A and High-A, hitting over .330 at both stops with 20 homers on the season and strikeout rates below league average. There’s some chance he is even more than just a 60 hitter with 55 or 60 power, which is what most scouts are projecting right now, with something like a 15-20% chance that Kirilloff turns into the next Joey Votto. There’s some disagreement about whether his 2018 season was him dominating pitching that didn’t challenge him, or if he has an approach that’s a little too aggressive and he just got away with it in 2018. Kirilloff is a fringy runner who’s an average defender in right field and has a plus arm, but he may bulk up and move to first base down the line, which would likely come with more power as well.

50 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 50/60 45/55 40/50 96-99 / 100

Graterol signed for $150,000 in 2014 out of Venezuela, got Tommy John surgery within a year, then got on the scouting radar a couple years later, when he was hitting the high-90s on the backfields in Ft. Myers, eventually hitting 100 mph. Before 2018, he had only made a handful of appearances outside of the DSL and GCL. His 2018 included eight sterling starts in Low-A and 11 very solid starts in Hi-A, all as a teenager.

Graterol has the making of a frontline starter, sitting 96-99 and hitting 100 mph often, mixing in a plus-flashing slider and a changeup that’s above average at its best. He’s a short strider and a bit of a dart-thrower, which is unusual for a pitcher that hits 100, but it helps Graterol throw more strikes than you would assume from a teenager hitting this kind of heat with an arm surgery in his past. The poor extension makes his velocity play lower than the radar gun readings, but with some incremental improvements in pitch execution and command, Graterol could shoot up our overall list, as he does more things like Sixto Sanchez than anyone else in the minors.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Oregon State (MIN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 65/65 35/60 45/45 40/45 55/55

Larnach hit several balls in excess of 110 mph during Oregon State’s opening weekend of his draft season, and he ended up slugging .652 that year. We were all-in despite scout concerns about his lack of range in the outfield and fear that he might just be a DH. The gap between where we had Larnach on our pre-draft board (12) and where he went (20) was large enough that we wondered if we were too high. Then Larnach hit .303/.390/.500 in pro ball during the rest of the summer, and we could sleep again. He has huge raw power and doesn’t swing with violence or effort to generate it; it’s just there. We’re very optimistic about him hitting enough to profile in an outfield corner.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 45/55 20/45 55/50 45/55 60/60

Signed for an IFA franchise record $4 million, Javier was a “This is What They Look Like” amateur prospect, the skinny, athletically graceful, broad-shouldered teenager. Sometimes those players fill out too much to stay at shortstop, and end up as power-hitting third basemen; sometimes they don’t, and become starting shortstops with modest offensive ability. And sometimes, they develop in the Goldilocks Zone, stay at short, and make a big offensive impact. That last outcome’s existence, unlikely as it may be, puts prospects like Javier in a kind of rarified air, even when they haven’t yet done anything.

And Javier hasn’t. When should we start to worry about all the injuries? Since signing in 2015, Javier has played in just 50 games while dealing with various maladies. He was in street clothes during part of 2015 instructs for reasons unknown to us, he played in just nine games in 2016 due to a hamstring strain, was healthy in 2017, then missed all of 2018 with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. This spring, he strained his quad and did not break camp with an affiliate. His frame has filled out and looked explosive, and during the spring, he was noticeably stronger and more powerful than he was when he signed. Javier’s body, bat speed, swing foundation, and defensive fit is the stuff of stardom, but we have little-to-no data on important things like plate discipline and feel for contact, and the injury history has been troubling.

45 FV Prospects

6. Jhoan Duran, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 50/60 40/50 93-96 / 98

Duran seemingly drew lots of trade interest while with Arizona. Loose, lean, and wielding premium stuff, his name was rumored to be on some PTBNL lists before he was ultimately traded to Minnesota as part of the Eduardo Escobar deal in 2018. During his first few pro seasons, Duran’s velocity yo-yo’d a bit; he was in the upper-90s at times, while more 91-95 at others. He was also demoted from the Northwest League back to the AZL in 2017 for reasons seemingly unrelated to performance. The following spring, not only was Duran’s velocity more stable — in the 93-96 range — but he was throwing strikes and had more consistent secondary stuff.

While he can spin a good breaking ball, Duran’s best secondary pitch is his changeup, which he sells with electric arm speed. He worked with better angle after the Twins acquired him last summer, a change that improved the playability of his breaking ball without taking away from his changeup’s movement. Now a physically mature, 230-pound 21-year-old, Duran seems poised to take a bit of a leap and perhaps reach the Florida State League later in the year. He may end up with three impact pitches if his secondaries have yet another gear of quality left to claim, which makes him a threat for the top 100 list either later this year or next.

7. Jose Miranda, 2B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (MIN)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/50 35/50 50/45 45/50 55/55

Miranda is a strong-bodied, multi-positional infielder with advanced feel for contact. He’ll be 20 for the first half of the season and has already reached Hi-A, leaving comically low strikeout rates in his wake as he has climbed the minor league ladder. His strikeout rate has hovered around 10% throughout his career despite Miranda having been about a year and a half younger than the average player at each minor league stop.

He may start trading some contact for power (his early-season strikeout and fly ball rates would seem to indicate this might be happening) but that may require more selectivity to work. Miranda’s swing is currently bottom-hand heavy and he doesn’t rip the bat through contact the way most power hitters do. He’s been fine putting quality, low-lying contact into play to his pull side so far, but may be best served to hit for more power, especially if he eventually moves off short. He’s a version of the bat control/up the middle types we so love here at FanGraphs, if a slightly lesser version right now due to his quieter results to date and his mature physicality.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 55/60 30/50 50/50 40/50 50/50

A thoroughly modern hitter, Severino has above-average ball/strike recognition for his age, and everything about his swing is geared for power. While he takes the occasional, gorgeous uppercut rip, it’s clear his feel for contact is undercooked from both sides of the plate, something that won’t be helped by a recent thumb fracture and ligament tear that may cost him most of this season. He’s increasingly likely to max out as a 40 hitter, or thereabouts, which makes it imperative that Severino learn to attack pitches he can drive and take his share of walks.

An amateur shortstop — he signed for $1.9 million with the Braves in their deep 2016 July 2nd class but was declared a free agent due to the Braves’ violations in the international realm, then signed for an additional $2.5 million bonus with Minnesota — Severino made all of seven 2019 starts at second base before hurting his thumb, and should settle in there. He could be a three true outcomes middle infielder à la Rickie Weeks, or peak Mark Bellhorn and Dan Uggla.

40+ FV Prospects

9. Brent Rooker, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Mississippi State (MIN)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 65/65 45/60 40/40 40/45 40/40

As a draft-eligible redshirt sophomore, Rooker hit .324/.376/.528 with 11 homers at Mississippi State. The Twins drafted him in the 38th round. He didn’t sign, returned to school, hit .287/.496/.810 with 23 homers, stole 18 bases, and was drafted 35th overall. Nobody was totally sure what to make of such remarkable improvement, and Rooker lives in the dreaded right/right 1B/DH bucket for most evaluators, but he had among the best raw power in his draft class and emphatically torched the best conference in college baseball.

Since entering pro ball, Rooker has performed and moved quickly, slugging 22 homers at Double-A in his first full pro season. His breaking ball recognition is questionable, and may be exposed more this year at Triple-A Rochester. The swing and miss issues combined with the defensive limitations are a bit of a problem, but Rooker has more power and is more athletic than most other hitters of this statistical ilk (like the Trey Mancinis and C.J. Crons of the world), so we like his chances of being a major league contributor fairly soon. We just doubt that he’s an average or better everyday first baseman, and instead think he’s a corner platoon bat.

10. Ryan Jeffers, C
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from UNC Wilmington (MIN)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 55/55 35/50 40/40 40/50 55/55

Jeffers emerged from relative obscurity in 2018 at UNC Wilmington to climb into the first day of the draft with a strong spring. He has 55 raw power and arm strength, carrying tools that allow him to punish mistakes at the plate and throw out runners from behind it. His receiving skills will be a 45 or 50, so he likely can stick at catcher, while his contact skills are a notch below that. Jeffers has a strength-based, power-focused swing, and catchers will often lose some of their athleticism more quickly than guys at other positions, so we don’t see him contributing a big batting average or on-base percentage, but there is low-end regular upside.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2008 from Venezuela (PHI)
Age 27.5 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
80/80 40/40 45/45 20/20 40/40 50/50

Yes, Astudillo is still rookie-eligible even though he’s been part of the internet baseball zeitgeist for so long, the face of a movement that enjoys a certain of baseball’s many aesthetics. For our purposes, Astudillo forces us to consider how we define the hit tool without letting other skills bleed in, which leads us to all kinds of existential questions about traditional tool classifications. Eventually, your tools just are what your performance is, and Astudillo has accumulated about a month’s worth of freakish data that’s impossible to ignore. He has been, and this has been true his entire pro career, an elite K% (3%) and in-zone contact rate (96%) hitter, and were we to make a hierarchy of individual stats that indicate ability to hit, those would be at the top.

This thinking could be considered flawed. Jose Iglesias has had plus-plus contact rates throughout his career, but hits just .265 because he lacks strength. That’s a lack of power bleeding in to how the hit tool plays, but in his case we’d say the hit tool is still good. You could argue that, similar to power, we should have Raw Hit and Game Hit split into two tools. In that vein, Astudillo is again exemplary in the way his tools/skills interact, as his game power plays beneath his raw, because he can’t help himself but swing so damn much, and often the contact is sub-optimal. The Fat Ichiro moniker was bestowed upon Brett Wallace too soon; this is the genuine article.

Correctly dubbed “positionless” as a young prospect, Astudillo has ended up a passable glove at several of the places minor league managers tried to hide him in his early 20s. Minnesota has played him all over the field — catcher, first base, second base, third base, left field — and he’s okay everywhere. He had average catcher pop times in the big leagues last year. The “role” to expect here is that of a versatile corner bench bat. It’s just the strangest version of that, a husky super utility man, with maybe the best hand-eye coordination on the planet.

12. Luis Arraez, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 45/45 20/30 50/50 45/50 40/40

Back from a 2017 ACL tear, Arraez hit for characteristically high rates of contact in 2018. He’s a career .328 hitter in the minors and has carried high averages to the upper levels, as he now has about half a season of Double-A at-bats under his belt. The type of contact Arraez makes is unique. He employs a punchy, minimalist swing, and just kind of throws the bat head at the baseball, leading to lots of opposite field contact. It’s worked so far, and Arraez has hit for enough contact to outweigh the total lack of game power that results from this kind of approach. It’s unlikely that this is an Altuveian situation where all of a sudden there’s power, because Altuve was pulling the ball in the minors.

Mostly because his actions are quite good, Arraez fits fine at second base. He’s a thicker guy and has begun to see more time at other positions (mostly other infield spots), and versatility will enable a team to roster him even if the lack of power turns out to be a problem. He likely projects as a bat-first utility guy, but there’s a chance he makes sufficient contact to be a regular at second.

40 FV Prospects

13. Lewis Thorpe, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Australia (MIN)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 60/60 45/50 45/50 90-94 / 95

Two consecutive seasons lost to a combination of Tommy John rehab and mononucleosis highlight a robust, early-career injury history for Thorpe, who has been encouragingly healthy for the last two years. He works at the top of the zone with a low-90s fastball, and beneath it with a big, breaking 12-to-6 curveball used against left and right-handed hitters, and he bisects the plate horizontally with a cutter/slider and changeup. A 6% walk rate in 2018 was comfortably Thorpe’s career best, which may be real development or just something that will regress to Thorpe’s career mean. It’s No. 4 or 5 starter stuff from an arm whose injury history, which one could argue should soon be expunged, moves him toward the back of that FV group. He’s at Triple-A and may see the big leagues this year.

14. Misael Urbina, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 17.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 25/50 55/50 40/50 40/45

Urbina was one of the more advanced bats in his July 2 signing class from both a bat control and physical development perspective. He was also one of the youngest. Currently an above-average runner, there’s a fair chance he ends up in left field due to a lack of top-end speed, though it might depend on how his body develops. Urbina’s power projection is somewhat limited by his size, which may be an issue if he does eventually move to a corner. It would mean he would have to be a high-end contact hitter to profile as an impact big leaguer, but that seems like it’s in play because Urbina has so many promising bat-to-ball traits — timing, hand-eye coordination, all-fields feel — at such a young age.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from St. Martin HS (CAN) (MIN)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 45/50 40/50 91-94 / 96

After two years in the GCL (another Canadian high schooler further down this list was developed the same way), Balazovic spent the spring of 2018 in Extended and then skipped the Appy League and went right to Low-A. He dominated there, striking out 78 in 61.2 innings while walking just 18. He throws an unusually high number of strikes for such a lanky, young, cold-weather arm with a somewhat violent delivery, and he gets nasty vertical action on his breaking ball despite a mediocre spin rate.

There’s still some visual discomfort with Balazovic’s mechanics, but he’s throwing strikes early in his career and hasn’t been injured. He’ll move up this list with a full year of innings at his 2018 level of performance. For now he at least projects as a reliever, but has a puncher’s chance to be a No. 4 starter.

Drafted: 9th Round, 2015 from Maryland (MIN)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/45 45/45 30/35 50/50 55/55 40/40

Wade intrigues as the larger half of a corner outfield platoon. He’s not exactly tooled up, but he walks a lot — more than he strikes out against right-handed pitchers, in fact — and he’ll make up for some of what he lacks in power with rangy, corner outfield defense. It’s not spectacular, but there’s a clear role here. And with Wade at Triple-A and on the 40-man, he may get his first big league opportunity this season.

17. Ben Rortvedt, C
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Verona HS (WI) (MIN)
Age 21.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 30/40 40/30 40/45 55/55

The beefcake Wisconsinite was sent back to the Midwest League to start 2018, thrived for six weeks there, then was promoted to Hi-A for the rest of the year. An improved receiver with a good arm, Rortvedt now projects as a passable catcher after looking kind of rough back there as an amateur and young pro. He has raw power befitting one of baseball’s more impressive physiques (Yandy Diaz is a good body comp) but hasn’t been able to get to it in games. A more pull-happy approach may unlock dormant game power, and the start of Rortvedt’s 2019 indicates it might be coming. He projects as a backup for now, with a chance the batted ball profile changes in a relevant way.

18. Luis Rijo, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 55/60 45/50 45/60 90-94 / 95

Part of Minnesota’s return from New York for Lance Lynn, Rijo is a hyper-efficient strike thrower whose curveball moves like a Wiffle ball, seemingly floating as it approaches the plate before it begins to bend and dive away from right-handed hitters. Because it’s a slower, loopy pitch, it may not miss bats against upper-level hitters, but it’s hard to square up because of how much depth it has, and Rijo locates it where he wants. So, too, can he spot his low-90s fastball where his catcher asks for it, working up at the letters and to both corners of the plate at will. His ceiling will likely be limited by stuff quality — though only 20, Rijo is physically mature and unlikely to grow into much more velocity — but the command makes him a high-probability starter and one who could move quickly.

19. Nick Gordon, 2B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Olympia HS (FL) (MIN)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 50/50 30/45 55/55 45/50 55/55

Seen as a lock to stick at shortstop while he was an amateur, Gordon has been error-prone there for several years and saw more time at second in 2018. He projects there for most scouts. The movement in his batted ball profile has plateaued (Gordon began his career as an all-fields, groundball hitter but began pulling and lifting the ball more starting in 2016), but might still produce more power than is usual at second base right now, even if it’s generally middling. (Gordon raps on the side under the alter ego “G Cinco,” which is also the name of an ASU-educated “Artist Entrepreneur,” so one of the two of them may have a copyright issue on their hands.) Gordon’s star seems to have fallen quite a bit, and instead of projecting as a shortstop with some pop, he’ll now need to hit enough to play second everyday or risk being squeezed out of a roster spot. He began 2019 on the IL with a digestive issue.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 35/40 20/30 60/60 45/60 60/60

International scouts billed Celestino’s defense and contact skills as advanced, and Houston handled promoting him as if that were true before trading him to Minnesota as part of the Ryan Pressly deal. He spent the last few weeks of his first pro season up from the DSL, but was liberated from the complex the following summer and sent right to the Appy League at 18, then the Penn League the following year, before the trade. And Celestino has hit during that time, just not usually for power, as he didn’t add much raw strength during his late teens. He’s only 20 but has a modest, tweener frame and probably needs to develop into a special defender, a special hitter, or both, in order to profile everyday.

21. Jovani Moran, LHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2015 from Carlos Beltran Academy (PR) (MIN)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 55/60 40/45 90-93 / 94

Drafted as an arm action/athleticism project out of Puerto Rico, Moran’s velocity has grown significantly since his high school days; he’s developed a plus, maybe plus-plus changeup that has about 15 mph of velocity difference off his fastball. He’s amassed 174 strikeouts in 123 pro innings, mostly via multi-inning relief outings. Lefties with changeups are well-positioned for when three-batter minimums are put in place for relievers. Now at Double-A, Moran might factor into the Twins’ bullpen picture this year. He projects as a middle reliever.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from San Jacinto JC (TX) (LAD)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 45/50 55/60 55/60 50/55 87-91 / 92

Most pitchers tuck their gloves in by their ribs when they disconnect and begin to clear their front sides; Smeltzer’s glove extends way out away from his body, the start of one of baseball’s funkiest deliveries. Repertoire depth, plus fastball and breaking ball spin, and efficient strike-throwing all mix with the mechanical deception to enable Smeltzer’s success despite a lack of velocity. He’s long been projected as a reliever but continues to start in the minors, and he’s had some dominant outings in addition to the low walk rates, and his spin rate has ticked up pretty significantly each of the last two seasons, which is rare. He may end up in a multi-inning role of some kind, as his strange mechanics would certainly give hitters a weird look one time through the lineup.

Smeltzer was struck in the head by a comeback in mid-April. He walked off the field under his own power but it’s unclear what his timetable for return is at list publication.

23. Blayne Enlow, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from St. Amat HS (LA) (MIN)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/60 40/50 40/50 90-94 / 96

Your standard high school projection arm with a breaking ball, Enlow is back at Low-A to start 2019. Like most pitchers of this ilk, fastball command and the development of a third pitch stand between Enlow and industry confidence that he’s a starter. That stuff hasn’t developed just yet, but Enlow is still just 20. If that doesn’t happen, he’s likely to be a fine reliever.

24. Akil Baddoo, CF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Salem HS (GA) (MIN)
Age 20.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 30/45 60/60 40/50 40/40

Baddoo has some promising physical ingredients — speed, raw power — and three consecutive seasons of plus walk rates. For a player who was considered raw coming out of high school, his numbers at his age and level combination are compelling, and he’ll be a 20 year old at Hi-A all year. Visual evaluations of his feel to hit temper enthusiasm for his overall profile, as the game power manifests itself in a niche, dead-pull manner that upper-level pitching should be able to avoid. Scouts think he’s more of a platoon or fourth outfielder, while we think it’s likely that teams using a pro model will like him more than that because of his age and peripherals.

25. Luke Raley, 1B
Drafted: 7th Round, 2016 from Lake Erie College (OH) (LAD)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 40/45 55/50 45/50 60/60

Raley is plus runner underway despite his size, and has big raw power that the Dodgers did well to tease out of him in games before trading him to Minnesota as part of the Brian Dozier deal last year. The small-school pedigree helps balance skepticism surrounding Raley’s performance (20 Double-A homers at age 23 last year) due to his age, and he projects to be a player quite similar to Daniel Palka or Scott Schebler.

26. Jorge Alcala, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/55 40/45 40/40 93-96 / 98

Acquired from Houston as part of the Ryan Pressly trade, Alcala has reached Double-A as a starter despite having been projected as a reliever for almost his entire pro career. Fastball control and a viable changeup have both been elusive, and you could argue Alcala’s issues repeating/locating also impact the way his slider plays, though it does have nasty late bite. He throws really hard — typically in the mid-90s, peaking above that — and has a great build. It makes sense to give him starter reps until he’s needed in the majors, since it means more chances for him to refine his secondary stuff and control. He’s a high-probability middle reliever, but he has a set-up man’s arm strength.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Brazil (ARI)
Age 20.3 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 30/30 20/20 70/70 45/55 50/50

A tiny speedster, Maciel’s build is relatively unprojectable, but one can still project on most of his skills because he was only taught baseball’s basics while growing up in Brazil, and hasn’t been switch-hitting for very long. His game has some coherent small-ball elements already, as he took quickly to bunting and putting awkward contact into play, which, because of his speed, enables him to reach against bad, low-level defenses.

There’s so little power here that Maciel likely projects as a fourth outfielder, but his feel for contact is impressive for someone of his background and seemingly insufficient physicality, and if he ends up with a 6 or 7 bat, we might be talking about a regular.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 19.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 45/55 35/45 92-94 / 96

Tilt Berroa’s cap another 15 degrees and he’s a dead on-mound ringer for Fernando Rodney. Right now, he just throws tailing heat past hitters, but he has some nascent changeup feel and his arm speed and loose, rhythmic delivery makes one comfortable projecting on the changeup. His breaking ball is good enough to miss bats when it’s located. Berroa hasn’t harnessed his limbs or his release point yet, so you have to project pretty heavily on his command to buy that the slider will play one day, and that he’ll throw enough strikes to start. If that happens, he could be a No. 4 starter. If it doesn’t, a bullpen role will be determined by his changeup quality.

29. Cole Sands, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Florida State (MIN)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 35/45 91-93 / 95

Sands’ older brother Carson was a high pick by the Cubs, and prep teammate Cole Ragans was a high pick by Texas from a historically-strong prep pitching staff. The younger Sands had a similar profile as a prep prospect as he did coming out of Florida State: above average stuff and average command that varied by the day more than scouts wanted, with no true plus pitch. Sands had biceps tendonitis just before the draft, which created some uncertainty and ultimately appears to have pushed him down a bit on draft day; he signed for third round money in the fifth round. He projects as a fourth starter type.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Pottsville HS (PA) (MIN)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 208 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/55 30/45 40/40 40/40 50/50

Though he’s gotten thick and stiff as his body has matured, the Twins continue to run Blankenhorn out at second and third base in addition to left field. He’s a 40 infield defender but as the club has shown with Astudillo, there are ways of hiding players like this in order to shoehorn their bat into the lineup. His swing is a bit grooved but Blankenhorn’s hands work well, and he has strength-driven doubles power. It’s not enough to profile everyday at one of the positions Blankenhorn is capable of playing regularly, but he should turn into a role-playing lefty bench bat.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2013 from Cathedral Catholic HS (CA) (MIN)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 213 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 45/45 55/55 45/45 87-90 / 92

Gonsalves cruised through the lower levels of the minors with three quality secondary offerings and a fastball that played above its velocity due to deception and a helpful spin axis. As he reached the upper levels, his ability to locate plateaued, and some would say it’s just gone backwards. His upper-80s fastball is vulnerable when it’s not in the right places, so Gonsalves has become a little walk-prone and gives up loud contact when he makes mistakes in the zone. Unless he can reclaim an ability to locate his fastball where it plays best (up near the letters), he’ll need to work heavily off his bevy of quality secondary offerings to get through a lineup multiple times. He’s on the IL to start the year (forearm) and looks like a No. 5 starter or low-leverage long reliever.

32. Kai-Wei Teng, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Taiwan (MIN)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/55 45/55 35/45 90-93 / 95

Of the $3 million in bonus pool money the Twins suddenly had lying around after they voided Jelfy Marte’s deal due to vision issues, they spent $2.5 million on Yunior Severino and $500,000 on Teng, who pitched at an athletics high school in Taiwan. His arm action is a little rough, and Teng’s lower slot makes it hard for him to get on top of his curveball consistently, but he’s very well balanced over his blocking leg and otherwise has a smooth delivery. At this age and size, it’s possible no more than the low-90s velo will come, but that might be enough if that curveball matures, because Teng’s changeup is also very good. His timeline to the bigs has more to do with Minnesota’s need to add him to the 40-man, which means we probably won’t see him in the big leagues until Teng is comfortably in his mid-20s, even if he makes progress. But he might be a No. 4 or 5 starter one day.

33. Ryan Costello, 1B
Drafted: 31th Round, 2017 from Central Connecticut State (SEA)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 30/50 50/50 40/40 50/55 50/50

A great small-school find by Seattle, Costello had a strong junior year after doing nothing as an underclassman, in part due to injury. Three strong months into his first full pro season, Costello had more than 40 extra-base hits and a 12% walk rate and had become of interest to eyeball scouts. A year after he was a 31st round pick, Seattle traded him in the Zach Duke deal. The Twins pushed him to a more age-apprpriate level immediately. He’s now an interesting sleeper 1B/3B bat, one who could at least play a corner utility/pinch hitting role.

34. Landon Leach, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Pickering HS (CAN) (MIN)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 40/50 40/50 40/50 91-93 / 94

The assumption that Leach, a giant Canadian kid who was still just 17 on draft day, would take a while to develop was correct. He repeated the GCL last year, missed some time with injury, and is back in Fort Myers for Extended again this spring. He’s a low-90s sinker baller with middling secondary stuff, but he repeats his delivery and remains a teenage developmental project from a cold climate. He has depth starter stuff right now and you have to project heavily on the change and command to see more than a backend starter, but it’s possible.

35. Griffin Jax, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Air Force (MIN)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 50/55 40/50 90-93 / 95

It seemed like the runway was clear for Jax to begin a pro career after graduating from Air Force. But about a month before he walked, the Department of Defense began once again requiring at least two years of active duty before graduates could apply to serve out their time in reserve status for the purpose of playing pro sports. Then baseball was reinstated as an Olympic sport, and Jax found an avenue to pro ball through the World Class Athlete Program, a military unit focused on training for the Games in the two years leading up to competition. So Jax, having sorted out some arcane rules about Air Force personnel being unable to have second streams of income, is technically an Air Force lieutenant training for the 2020 Olympics, while the Twins pay for his development, but don’t pay him.

Jax was 89-94 throughout the 2018 Fall League, with his secondary stuff about average, flashing above (especially the change). He could be a fifth starter, but if his fastball ticks up in short relief, he’ll fit in a mid-inning bullpen role. It’s unclear what happens to Jax and his military commitment after the 2020 games conclude.

35+ FV Prospects

36. Carlos Aguiar, OF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

A body-beautiful outfielder with as good-looking a swing, Aguiar played all last year as a 16-year-old in the DSL. The best of his sweet, uppercut swings have flourishes of Ken Griffey, Jr.’s beautiful finish. The cement is drier on Aguiar’s body than is typical for a prospect this age, but he has some pop, feel for lifting the ball, and he held his head above water despite being one of the younger guys in the DSL last year. He’s an interesting, long-term corner outfield project.

37. Johan Quezada, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 24.7 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 40/45 94 / 0

After parts of five seasons in rookie or short-season ball, and one on the shelf for a shoulder surgery, Quezada finally made his full-season debut in 2018, just a few days shy of his 24th birthday. He came back throwing fire, sitting comfortably in the 94-98 range. An imposing mound presence at a towering 6-foot-6, Quezada creates extreme downhill plane on his fastball and vertical action on his slider, which aids its vertical depth in spite of a paltry spin rate. He’s understandably behind due to his limited pro workload, but he’s a candidate for quick promotion before he breaks again, and seems like a potential set-up type if the slider improves now that Quezada is finally pitching and developing again.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Utah (MIN)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 30/45 55/55 60/60 45/50 45/45

Toward the end of the 2017 college season, Keirsey chased a Hunter Bishop flyball to the warning track and collided at high speed with the center field wall, fracturing and dislocating his hip. He couldn’t run for four months. It meant no Cape Cod League the summer before his draft year, and uncertainty that his best physical attribute — his speed — was gone. Though he didn’t look quite as explosive early the following year, Keirsey played his entire junior season and led the Pac-12 in doubles before signing as a slightly over slot fourth rounder. He currently projects as a bench outfielder whose medical might be grisly, but if more of his explosiveness returns, he could climb this list.

39. Charles Mack, 2B
Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Williamsville East HS (NY) (MIN)
Age 19.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 20/45 45/50 50/50 40/50 40/40

After the Twins got slightly under slot deals done with a two early college draftees, they were free to spread over slot money throughout the rest of their draft, which included a $500,000 bonus for Mack in the sixth round. A Northeast prep bat with a stiff, but well-timed uppercut swing, Mack has a good chance to hit for gap power and stay on the infield somewhere. He’s relatively mature physically, but already has good power for his age. He didn’t hit well after signing, but the leap from New York high school to pro ball is a doozy.

Drafted: 11th Round, 2018 from Texas A&M (MIN)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Helman’s cacophonous post-draft summer — .361/.409/.510 — caused some re-evaluation after he had just gotten about $200,000 as an 11th rounder a few months earlier. We’re still not all-in. His 2018 line included a .386 BABIP against competition beneath what he faced in college, he didn’t walk much, and visual evaluations yielded mixed feelings about his ability to sustain anything approaching that kind of game power. Helman is remarkably short to the baseball and tough to beat with velocity because his hands work in such a tight little circle. A more athletic, full-bodied swing may yield more pop, which, if it doesn’t take too much from his ability to make contact, would be a meaningful improvement. Realistically, he might be a utility infielder with bat and speed. He’s at Hi-A and soon turns 23.

41. Lewin Diaz, 1B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 30/50 60/60 45/40 45/50 50/50

Diaz didn’t perform in his first try at the Florida State League, reaching base at just a .255 clip before his season ended with a thumb fracture, which required surgery. Don’t be fooled by his unconventional swing; he has feel to hit and feel for lifting the ball in the air regularly. But too often, Diaz swings at whatever he’s offered, limiting the quality of his contact and his ability to reach base. At first base, that might be a problem. Scouts have mixed opinions about his body and how it projects into his mid-to-late-20s, which is when Diaz will likely be on the 40-man fringe, perhaps a fit for some clubs in need of, or with room for, a big-bodied masher on their 40-man. The raw power and feel for lift/contact are enticing, but a more sentient approach would be nice.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Upper-level Depth
Zack Littell, RHP
Jake Reed, RHP
Alex Robinson, LHP
Kohl Stewart, RHP
Andrew Vasquez, LHP
Tyler Jay, LHP

Several members of this group will likely help Minnesota this year, as most teams need about 20 pitchers to get through a season. Littell saw some big league time last year. He’s 23, has a low-90s fastball, and an average cutter, curveball, and change. He projects as a No. 5/6 starter. Reed is a three-pitch reliever with a funky delivery who has calmed down significantly since college. Robinson throws in the upper-90s when healthy. He and Reed are middle relief types. Stewart throws in the mid-90s but has below-average command and fringe secondary stuff, except for his breaking ball, which is average. Vasquez throws a ton of curveballs and is a fringe 40-man lefty. Jay’s stuff hasn’t quite returned since his many injuries, but he’s still a multi-pitch lefty with average stuff, and that seems rosterable.

Sleeper Arms
Edwar Colina, RHP
Dakota Chalmers, RHP
Ryley Widell, LHP
Regi Grace, RHP
Josh Winder, RHP

Colina is a thick 21-year-old with below-average command. He’ll touch 96 and has an average four-pitch mix. After a strong second half of 2018, he’s hurt to start this year. Chalmers has been 93-96 with a plus change and curveball in the past, but he’s had severe strike-throwing issues and isn’t on an affiliate roster right now. Widell is a lefty with three average pitches. Grace was one of two Mississippi high school kids signed to overslot deals in the top 10 rounds. His delivery is kind of rough, but he’ll show you 90-93 with feel for spin. Winder is a spin efficient righty with average stuff that plays up.

Sleeper Bats
Jeferson Morales, C
Willie Joe Garry, Jr., OF

Morales is currently dealing with a left knee injury of unknown severity, but he’s an athletic catcher with plate discipline and speed. Garry was the second of the two overslot high schoolers taken late on Day 2 last year. He’s a lefty outfield bat with some power and a good frame.

System Overview

This is clearly one of the deeper systems in baseball, and has a few potential stars at the very top including a recent No. 1 overall pick, and yet it’s not discussed as often as the other great systems in the game. Perhaps this is because the big league team has a chance to compete, which makes us collectively fixate on the Twins’ October chances, compared to other clubs with good systems that have either pointed toward their coherent rebuild rather than dwell on a bad big league roster (San Diego), or “need” the farm to constantly feed cost-controlled players up the ladder (Tampa Bay). It might also just be media neglect.

It’s incredible the system is as good as it is considering how little the Twins have done in the Dominican Republic over the last several years. Only two of the 40 FV or better players on here are original Twins signees from the DR. Indeed, they’ve done much better in odd places like Australia or Eastern Asia than in the Dominican. That may change now that they’ve made some personnel changes in International Scouting. They’ve also done very well in Venezuela despite abandoning their complex in 2016 due to the country’s ongoing turmoil.

Let’s watch the next Twins draft to see if their 2018 strategy (two underslot college mashers early, then a bunch of overslot picks throughout the rest of the draft’s first two days) becomes a multi-year ideology.


Daily Prospect Notes: 4/18/2019

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Level: Triple-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 12   FV: 40
Line: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 R, 12 K

Notes
After two middling starts to kick off his season, Thorpe was dominant yesterday and K’d 12 of the 22 hitters he faced, all on either a fastball at the letters or with a curveball beneath the strike zone. He has quite the injury history (including a two-year stretch where he didn’t pitch at all) and it has impact on how the industry perceives him, which is why he’ll be ranked a bit beneath where he would otherwise be based on his stuff and proximity to the majors. But Thorpe has been consistently healthy since May of 2017, which may begin to allay concerns.

Cody Thomas, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Level: Double-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: tbd   FV: 40
Line: 4-for-4, 3 HR

Notes
The Dodgers have done well drafting and developing college power/speed hitters who are athletically stiff, have some swing and miss issues, or both. Thomas, who will be an interesting Rule 5 case this offseason, is one of these. He’s striking out a lot as a 24-year-old at Double-A, but some teams may view the context of his performance differently because Thomas was a two-sport college athlete who hasn’t focused on baseball for as long as other prospects his age. The Dodgers will need to add several other players from Thomas’ draft class to the 40-man (Will Smith, Mitch White, Jordan Sheffield, Tony Gonsolin), so Thomas would seem to be a candidate for trade if a team loves the tools, ability to lift the baseball, and has some 40-man space/time to spare to let him develop further.

Oscar Mercado, CF, Cleveland Indians
Level: Triple-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: 12   FV: 45
Line: 3-for-4, 2B, BB, 4 SB

Notes
Cleveland outfielders, aside from Leonys Martin, are struggling right now. Mercado has begun to heat up at Triple-A with hits in five consecutive games. If he starts seeing more time in a corner, it may be an indication a call-up is imminent, because he’s not supplanting Martin in Cleveland’s center field. He’s only started 23 games in either left or right field during his career, and it might behoove Cleveland to get him more acclimated.

Ty France, 1B/3B, San Diego Padres
Level: Triple-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: tbd   FV: 40
Line: 2-for-5, 2 HR

Notes
The Hosmer and Machado deals almost certainly make France a burgeoning trade chip. He’s exactly the kind of hitter to whom the PCL is extra nice, but he’s hit at every level since college and, save for one season, has also hit for power, and his current SLG% is more caricature than mirage. France also had a great spring with the big league club and is on the 40-man, so he’s likely to debut this year if one of the big league corner bats gets hurt, though San Diego might view that as a way to clear their outfield logjam by playing Wil Myers in the infield again.

Tyler Ivey, RHP, Houston Astros
Level: Double-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 14   FV: 40+
Line: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 8 K

Notes
A quintessential Houston four-seam/curveball pitching prospect, Ivey at least projects as a good multi-inning reliever and his four-pitch mix gives him a great chance to start. He was ejected two innings into his last start for having a foreign substance on his glove. He’s a sleeper 2020 Top 100 candidate.

More on Keoni Cavaco
There’s background on Cavaco in yesterday’s Notes. I saw him again yesterday against Torrey Pines High School and he had a tough day at the plate, swinging over multiple changeups from TPH’s funky lefty starter. There are going to be questions about his hit tool because of both the swing (inconsistent, arguably ineffectual stride length, odd hand path) and his lack of track record against elite high school pitching, and maybe about what his ultimate defensive position will be, but he’ll be somebody’s toolsy sandwich round pick.

Also of note from the game was Torrey Pines CF Mac Bingham, a 2019 committed to USC. He’s a strong, compact 5-foot-10, 185, and was the football team’s running back in the fall. He made strong contact with two hittable pitches, and ran a 55 time from home to first while legging out a double. The frame makes the power projection less exciting and one area scout told me the general consensus is that Bingham will go to school, but he’s at least an interesting, tools-based follow for 2022 if he does.


Daily Prospect Notes: 4/17/19

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals
Level: Triple-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: 7   FV: 45
Line: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 2B, BB

Notes
In our recently-published Royals list, we openly wondered if we should be heavier on Lopez largely because A) he plays shortstop and B) his peripherals are excellent. Shortly after publication, an executive reached out to us and they agreed we should be more enthused about Lopez, who we currently have evaluated as a second-division regular. He’s struck out just once so far this year. We don’t expect Lopez to hit for much power (he’s little and hits the ball on the ground a lot), but he may do enough to be part of Kansas City’s rebuilding efforts.

Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Level: Double-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 3   FV: 50
Line: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 8 K

Notes
After two semi-wild starts during which his stuff was still too good for opposing hitters to do anything with, Graterol was slightly more efficient and utterly dominant last night. He’s holding upper-90s heat late into games, and while his slider is more horizontally oriented than is ideal (vertical breaking balls are typically better at missing bats), Graterol’s has enough length to be a real problem for hitters anyway. He’s only 20 and carving up Double-A. If there’s a scenario in which Graterol sees the big leagues this year, it almost certainly involves a tight AL Central race and a start like the one he’s off to.

Jarred Kelenic, CF, Seattle Mariners
Level: Low-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: 3   FV: 50
Line: 4-for-4, 2 2B, SB, BB

Notes
After a rough first week, Kelenic has heated up and is hitting like one would hope the most advanced high school bat would hit during their first full pro season. Both he and Nolan Gorman are performing and seem on the fast track. Kelenic has also looked comfortable in center field. Big and muscular aleady at 19, there’s some thought Kelenic may eventually move to a corner, but if he races through the minors, he’ll get to the bigs before he slows down.

Oscar Gonzalez, OF, Cleveland Indians
Level: Hi-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: HM   FV: 35
Line: 2-for-5, HR, 2B

Notes
Perhaps the epitome of the high-risk hitting prospect, Gonzalez continues to hit for power despite employing one of the most swing-happy approaches in pro ball. He still hasn’t walked this year and has just three free passes dating back to last June. The realistic ceiling for a player like this is a Hunter Renfroe-y sort of player.

Dispatch from Chula Vista

I’m in Southern California to see Eastlake High School infielder Keoni Cavaco, perhaps the most signifiant pop-up prospect in this year’s draft. Though his swing is a little unorthodox and handsy, Cavaco has big raw power and speed (he homered to dead center yesterday, turned what would typically be a gap single into a double, stole a base) and maybe the best body in the draft. He mishandled a ball at third base (where he moved, from second, late in the game) and saw little defensive action beside that.

We have Cavaco at the back of the 45-FV tier in this year’s class. There can only be so much confidence in his bat because he wasn’t part of last summer’s big showcases, where he would have faced better pitching than he’s seeing now. On tools, and based on what teams had extra heat in to see him (Seattle, Cleveland, Arizona), we’ll likely slide him up a few spots on The Board. I may head back to see more of him today.


With Wes Johnson, Twins Pitching Appears to Be Embracing Change

One of the beautiful things about baseball is that history is always being made. During every season, every game, every pitch, we may witness something that has never happened in the long history of this sport.

This offseason, the Twins made baseball history in a different way than I think you were expecting. They hired Wes Johnson, then the University of Arkansas’ pitching coach, to join their big league staff, serving in the same role. According to this story from La Velle E. Neal III in the Star Tribune, Johnson became the first pitching coach in baseball history to move directly from college to the majors. And, at the time, he was believed to be the first coach or manager of any kind to make this transition since Dick Howser left Florida State to manage the Yankees in 1980. That’s some legitimate baseball history there.

What was even more interesting about the Twins’ hire was Johnson’s pedigree as a pitching coach. From Neal’s story:

[Johnson] studies biomechanics. He uses analytics. He is into the gadgets teams invest in to help train pitchers. He earned a reputation in college as a velocity expert, someone who can help pitchers throw harder — although he says it’s difficult to do once a pitcher is no longer in his teens.

Perhaps the story of the Twins hiring a pitching coach who “uses analytics” might not sound all that exciting to you; you likely assume big league coaches use analytics at this point. But the change represented a real organizational philosophy shift. Read the rest of this entry »


Twins Add Wins with Marwin Gonzalez

For the second winter in a row, the Twins have taken advantage of a depressed free agent market to load up on players via short-term contracts, even doing so after camps opened. On Friday, they made their latest move, adding switch-hitting superutilityman Marwin Gonzalez — who ranked 15th on our Top 50 Free Agents List last November — to the fold on a two-year, $21 million deal.

Originally signed by the Cubs out of Venezuela in 2005, Gonzalez has spent the entirety of his seven-year major league career with the Astros, who acquired him from the Red Sox in a Rule 5-pick-and-trade in December 2011. Last year, he wasn’t quite as super with the bat as he was in 2017 (.303/.377/.530, 144 wRC+), but he overcame a slow start to hit a respectable .247/.324/.409 in 552 PA, with 16 homers and a 104 wRC+; it’s the fourth time in five years he’s had a wRC+ above 100. He’s been above-average from both sides of the plate in each of the past two seasons, and has a negligible platoon split for his career (104 wRC+ vs righties, 101 vs. lefties).

The versatility of “Swiss G” — that’s agent Scott Boras’ name for his client, and I swear on a stack of baseball cards that I won’t use it unironically ever again — extends to the field, of course. Last year, Gonzalez made 65 starts in left field, 29 at shortstop, 21 at first base, 19 at second base, and two at third base; he also made late-inning appearances at the other two outfield positions, and probably manned Minute Maid Park concession stands on both the first and third base sides when he wasn’t playing. The story was similar in 2017 (38 starts in left, 33 at short, 20 at first, 15 at third, and 14 at second). He can spot start to give a regular a day off, hold down a position for weeks at a time during another player’s IL stint (as he did last year for Yulieski Gurriel, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa), or serve as a primary option when other plans fall through (as the Astros’ left field machinations did last year). Defensively, he’s been a plus in left, and more or less average everywhere else except shortstop, where the metrics suggest he’s stretched (-6.5 UZR and -8 DRS over the past two seasons), though as we’re dealing with small slices of playing time, sample-size caveats do apply.

With 4.0 WAR in 2017 but a more modest 1.6 last year, and a total of just 3.1 from 2014-2016, Gonzalez was never in the same class as Ben Zobrist in terms of delivering value, though Boras reportedly sought a Zobristian four-year, $60 million deal for his client. Even if that was never going to happen, Gonzalez — like so many other free agents — was expected to net a larger contract than he landed, because frankly, very few teams couldn’t use a player like him. For our Top 50 roundup, Kiley McDaniel projected him to receive three years and $39 million, while even suggesting that a four-year deal was possible; our crowdsource median came in at three years and $30 million. But with deals like these already inked…

Mid-Priced Free Agent Infielders
Player Pos Prev WAR Proj WAR Age Med Years Med Total New Tm Yrs $
DJ LeMahieu 2B 2.0 2.1 30 3 $36.0M Yankees 2 $24.0M
Daniel Murphy 2B 0.8 1.9 33 2 $28.0M Rockies 2 $24.0M
Josh Donaldson 3B 1.3 4.1 33 1 $23.0M Braves 1 $23.0M
Jed Lowrie 2B 4.9 2.1 34 2 $24.0M Mets 2 $20.0M
Mike Moustakas 3B 2.4 2.5 30 3 $36.0M Brewers 1 $10.0M
Brian Dozier 2B 0.8 2.2 31 3 $36.0M Nationals 1 $9.0M
Jonathan Schoop 2B 0.5 2.2 27 Twins 1 $7.5M
Med(ian) Years and Med(ian) Total contract values from our crowdsource balloting (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2018-19-ballot-1-of-7/).

…a three-year contract for that kind of scratch wasn’t happening, particularly at this stage of the winter. Against that backdrop, it’s worth noting that Gonzalez, whose contract projection was in the ballpark of those of Moustakas and Dozier, outdid them both in AAV and total dollars. He wouldn’t have been a bad choice for either of those jobs, and personally, I’d much rather have him in a multi-position role than LeMahieu, a fantastic fielder at second base but less of a hitter, and with less experience juggling gloves.

Gonzalez’s signing is of a piece with what the Twins have been doing lately. Last winter, fresh off 85 wins and an AL Wild Card appearance, the team signed Logan Morrison to a one-year, $6.5 million deal on February 28, and Lance Lynn to a one-year, $12 million deal on March 12, those after previously adding Zach Duke (one year, $2.15 million), Michael Pineda (two years, $10 million), Addison Reed (two years, $16.75 million), and Fernando Rodney (one year, $4.5 million) in December and January. Morrison struggled and then needed hip surgery, Lynn scuffled as well, and when it was clear that it wasn’t the Twins’ year to win, they flipped Lynn along with Duke on July 30, part of a flurry of pre-deadline deals that also saw them trade Dozier away to the Dodgers, Eduardo Escobar to the Diamondbacks, and Ryan Pressley to the Astros, before sending Rodney to the A’s in August.

Despite so much going wrong — including dreadful, injury-marred seasons from Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and the since-departed Ervin Santana (who agreed to a minor-league deal with the White Sox on Friday) — the Twins finished 78-84. They’ve been busy handing out one-year deals this winter, adding Nelson Cruz ($14.3 million), Schoop, Martin Perez ($3.5 million), Blake Parker ($1.8 million), and Ronald Torreyes ($800,000), not to mention minor league deals for the likes of Lucas Duda and Tim Collins, plus C.J. Cron via a waiver claim.

Gonzalez is likely to reprise his multiposition role in Minnesota, filling in here and there while insuring against the possibility that things go south again for Schoop or Sano, whose 2018 performances offer less hope than their relatively sunny projections for two-plus wins apiece. Schoop, who split his season between the Orioles and Brewers, dipped from a 122 wRC+ and 3.8 WAR in 2017 to 80 and 0.5 last year, while Sano, whose 2017 ended with surgery to implant a titanium rod in his left leg to help it heal from a stress reaction, hit for an 82 wRC+ with 0.0 WAR. The bummer of it is that Gonzalez could squeeze the wonderful Willians Astudillo off the 25-man roster, though it might be Ehire Adrianza, who can play shortstop but can’t catch, who winds up drawing the short straw.

Given his versatility and his relatively modest salary, Gonzalez could have helped a whole lot of teams. He figures to be well worth his money for the Twins.


2019 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

In a league that is largely dominated by teams at the extremes of winning and rebuilding, the Minnesota Twins represent an increasingly rare breed: the excruciatingly, unbearably, average team. If you look at the lineup from top to bottom, there just aren’t any horrible weaknesses, with the bottom of the ZiPS ranks (Jorge Polanco, and the catching and first base timeshares) still living in the neighborhood of league-average; no scary negatives or zero-point-somethings lurk in there. But the highs aren’t really that high, either; Nelson Cruz tops the projections at 2.6 WAR, thanks to a .266/.348/.500 line. That’s the lowest top projected offensive WAR for any team that hopes to be a realistic contender in 2019.

This situation is not entirely the team’s fault, of course. ZiPS, like the Twins and most prospect-watchers, thought that Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano would, by this point, be players who formed the core of Minnesota’s lineup. There are a number of valid criticisms of how the Twins have managed Buxton and Sano, especially the former. Buxton’s inconsistent performance has been maddening, but so has the team’s tendency to go back-and-forth on whether he needed to be in the majors or the minors at any given time. His regular injuries add another frustrating complication. ZiPS has generally been optimistic about Buxton’s future, even when he’s struggled in the majors, but at this point, it’s only buying him as a league-average overall performer thanks to his excellent glove. It’s a good thing I don’t believe in curses; several years ago, I noted that ZiPS was rather cruel in assigning Carlos Gomez as Buxton’s top offensive comp, but it’s been more on-target than a computer can understand.

One of the problems with having a team full of average players is that it becomes damned hard to upgrade. There’s nowhere in the lineup where the Twins can be improved by any significant margin by adding a two-win player; really, even a three-win player would be an underwhelming addition at most positions. To upgrade the team’s offense, they need to add a legitimate star. And if that’s less likely to come by way of giant breakouts from Sano or Buxton than it once appeared, money becomes the best option in the short-term. After chasing Yu Darvish last year, I thought the Twins might sneakily be real players in the free agent market this offseason, but they really haven’t been. In a division with three rebuilding teams and a Cleveland squad whose plan in the outfield includes a heavy dose of Jordan Luplow, it feels like Minnesota should be more carpe diem and less dimitte diem.

Pitchers

The theme of being largely average continues with the pitching staff. Only Jose Berrios (at 14-10, 3.93, and 3.2 WAR) really pushes out of that middling range in the rotation. While his 2018 looked vaguely similar to his 2017, Berrios bumped up his strikes by a batter a game, and it still feels like that he has some ceiling left, even if ZiPS sees him continuing to pitch at about the same level. Berrios’s changeup has always looked nastier than it’s actually played on the field. I can’t speak for Twins fans, but to me, it’s looked like a pitch that should have struck out more than a mere 15 batters (against 11 home runs) in the right-hander’s brief career.

ZiPS remains unexcited about Blake Parker — one of the Twin’s “big” offseason moves — getting the highest-leverage innings, and instead sees Taylor Rogers or Trevor May (higher upside) as being better suited for the role. The projections are also bullish on Andrew Vasquez, a big lefty who serves up more sliders than White Castle and who rose from the Florida State League to the American League in ten weeks. But overall, the back of the bullpen looks shallower than other contenders’ and the highs are not quite as high. Of the teams that look to be around .500 or better, ZiPS projects Minnesota’s bullpen to be around the bottom, along with the Washington Nationals.

Bench and Prospects

Nick Gordon‘s offensive development has been a bit spotty, but ZiPS still sees him as a league-average regular in his prime, on the level of a slightly-better Polanco. That’s fine, but Royce Lewis’s projection is more exciting, with ZiPS seeing him peak as a 20-25 home run hitter, with projected lines in the .260/.330/.460 range, which will still work if he ends up playing center field rather than short in the majors. He even projects as useful if he were to play in the bigs this year, which is an impressive feat for a player with two months of Hi-A experience. As for Alex Kirilloff, while ZiPS doesn’t see him ever being a high-OBP player when his batting average inevitably comes down, his prime projections check in with just over a .280 batting average, with slugging percentages peeking just over the .500 mark.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nelson Cruz R 38 DH 131 474 65 126 19 1 30 101 50 113 1 0
Max Kepler L 26 RF 147 516 74 127 31 5 20 70 61 107 6 4
Eddie Rosario L 27 LF 148 565 84 156 30 5 23 78 30 117 9 5
Willians Astudillo R 27 C 102 364 40 102 18 1 15 49 9 18 4 4
Jonathan Schoop R 27 2B 150 561 74 146 31 1 25 90 26 140 1 1
Byron Buxton R 25 CF 116 403 54 95 18 5 12 45 28 136 17 2
Miguel Sano R 26 3B 112 411 60 93 19 1 25 70 56 176 1 0
C.J. Cron R 29 1B 135 475 59 123 27 2 24 80 32 119 2 2
Logan Forsythe R 32 2B 121 401 51 98 20 1 8 39 51 102 4 2
Jorge Polanco B 25 SS 118 456 54 120 23 5 10 61 35 89 10 6
Nick Gordon L 23 SS 138 561 61 138 25 6 7 50 33 132 16 6
Jake Cave L 26 CF 132 486 67 120 23 4 17 63 37 160 5 3
Jason Castro L 32 C 89 280 32 58 14 1 7 28 35 99 0 0
Logan Morrison L 31 1B 113 374 50 87 17 1 20 59 47 98 3 1
Taylor Motter R 29 3B 110 384 47 88 21 1 13 48 36 90 13 6
Luis Arraez L 22 2B 119 455 49 122 19 4 4 37 27 60 3 4
Joe Mauer L 36 1B 121 459 56 124 25 2 6 47 52 85 1 1
Tyler Austin R 27 1B 109 385 51 89 21 2 21 64 35 144 3 2
Mitch Garver R 28 C 106 356 43 83 21 2 8 46 37 99 1 1
Lucas Duda L 33 1B 103 338 40 76 18 0 18 57 39 115 1 0
LaMonte Wade L 25 LF 113 424 54 104 14 3 9 41 51 86 8 3
Royce Lewis R 20 SS 118 481 57 112 21 3 12 50 32 109 19 8
Alex Kirilloff L 21 RF 128 511 62 138 30 3 17 68 27 110 3 3
Ehire Adrianza B 29 SS 106 296 36 72 16 1 5 34 23 66 5 2
Wynston Sawyer R 27 C 66 223 27 52 11 0 5 22 23 62 2 2
Dean Anna L 32 2B 115 412 49 100 16 2 2 31 41 65 5 5
Ronald Torreyes R 26 2B 91 273 28 72 13 2 1 21 12 36 1 1
Zach Granite L 26 CF 105 391 45 97 13 3 3 28 29 56 18 8
Brian Schales R 23 3B 129 438 49 98 20 3 9 47 44 128 3 3
Michael Reed R 26 CF 107 357 49 77 16 1 10 37 54 136 10 5
Tomas Telis B 28 C 104 346 40 90 14 2 4 35 20 45 3 2
Brian Navarreto R 24 C 98 348 30 72 15 0 4 25 12 76 0 1
Jermaine Curtis R 31 3B 67 223 27 49 9 0 3 18 27 54 3 1
Jeremy Hazelbaker L 31 CF 102 296 36 61 13 3 10 35 28 117 10 2
Jordan Gore B 24 SS 101 344 36 76 11 2 3 25 29 104 4 2
Brent Rooker R 24 1B 125 489 62 110 24 2 21 67 41 167 4 2
Leonardo Reginatto R 29 3B 93 329 31 76 13 1 3 26 18 76 4 4
Luke Raley L 24 1B 118 475 59 107 17 7 12 50 30 166 4 1
Drew Maggi R 30 2B 84 286 29 63 12 1 2 20 22 77 11 6
Wilin Rosario R 30 1B 114 419 50 104 22 1 16 63 23 104 5 3
Andy Wilkins L 30 1B 80 276 34 56 13 1 13 40 27 96 2 0
Randy Cesar R 24 3B 115 449 46 106 18 1 7 40 27 144 2 2
Jordany Valdespin L 31 2B 68 227 25 55 9 2 3 19 16 43 7 4
Adam Rosales R 36 2B 117 324 36 67 15 1 9 36 24 100 2 3
Mike Olt R 30 3B 84 290 33 56 12 0 10 31 32 117 0 0
Jaylin Davis R 24 RF 118 445 47 93 18 2 12 45 30 169 6 3
Zander Wiel R 26 1B 122 469 52 103 22 3 12 51 38 134 5 2
Edgar Corcino B 27 RF 105 394 41 94 17 3 7 37 26 94 3 2
Jordan Pacheco R 33 C 58 147 12 29 6 0 1 9 10 33 0 0

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Nelson Cruz 540 .266 .348 .500 127 .234 .290 6.4 0 2.6 Joe Adcock
Max Kepler 586 .246 .328 .442 107 .196 .275 5.2 6 2.2 Robin Jennings
Eddie Rosario 602 .276 .310 .469 108 .193 .313 5.4 7 2.2 Rondell White
Willians Astudillo 385 .280 .307 .459 104 .179 .263 5.2 3 2.0 Bengie Molina
Jonathan Schoop 601 .260 .300 .453 101 .193 .306 4.9 0 2.0 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Byron Buxton 440 .236 .291 .395 84 .159 .325 4.4 11 1.9 Reggie Sanders
Miguel Sano 471 .226 .321 .460 109 .234 .324 5.2 -3 1.7 Mark Reynolds
C.J. Cron 523 .259 .317 .476 111 .217 .298 5.5 0 1.5 Larry Sheets
Logan Forsythe 461 .244 .336 .359 90 .115 .309 4.3 1 1.2 Dick Green
Jorge Polanco 501 .263 .316 .401 93 .138 .308 4.6 -4 1.1 Kurt Stillwell
Nick Gordon 603 .246 .292 .349 74 .103 .310 3.7 6 1.0 Carlos Garcia
Jake Cave 533 .247 .303 .416 93 .169 .333 4.5 -2 1.0 LaVel Freeman
Jason Castro 319 .207 .299 .339 73 .132 .293 3.5 6 1.0 Jerry Goff
Logan Morrison 428 .233 .325 .444 106 .211 .262 5.1 -1 1.0 Carmelo Martinez
Taylor Motter 425 .229 .296 .391 85 .161 .267 4.1 3 0.9 Tom Brookens
Luis Arraez 493 .268 .309 .354 80 .086 .302 3.9 5 0.8 Martin Prado
Joe Mauer 517 .270 .345 .373 96 .102 .321 4.7 3 0.8 Mike Hargrove
Tyler Austin 426 .231 .298 .460 102 .229 .309 4.8 0 0.7 Jason Dubois
Mitch Garver 398 .233 .307 .371 83 .138 .301 4.0 -2 0.7 Chad Moeller
Lucas Duda 387 .225 .315 .438 102 .213 .283 4.8 0 0.7 Graham Koonce
LaMonte Wade 486 .245 .330 .356 87 .111 .289 4.3 2 0.5 Trevor Penn
Royce Lewis 522 .233 .286 .364 75 .131 .278 3.7 0 0.5 Asdrubal Cabrera
Alex Kirilloff 545 .270 .306 .440 100 .170 .315 4.9 -5 0.4 Jose Guillen
Ehire Adrianza 328 .243 .299 .355 77 .111 .298 3.8 -1 0.3 Doug Strange
Wynston Sawyer 253 .233 .316 .350 81 .117 .301 3.8 -3 0.2 Bob Henley
Dean Anna 468 .243 .320 .306 72 .063 .284 3.4 2 0.2 Don Blasingame
Ronald Torreyes 291 .264 .294 .337 71 .073 .301 3.6 3 0.2 Mario Diaz
Zach Granite 428 .248 .302 .320 70 .072 .283 3.5 3 0.1 Leo Garcia
Brian Schales 491 .224 .300 .345 75 .121 .296 3.5 0 0.1 Pedro Castellano
Michael Reed 417 .216 .321 .350 83 .134 .318 3.9 -6 0.0 Todd Self
Tomas Telis 373 .260 .305 .347 77 .087 .290 3.8 -4 0.0 Kirt Manwaring
Brian Navarreto 368 .207 .243 .284 43 .078 .254 2.3 11 0.0 Alex Sutherland
Jermaine Curtis 261 .220 .323 .300 72 .081 .277 3.4 -1 -0.1 Rico Rossy
Jeremy Hazelbaker 328 .206 .278 .372 75 .166 .302 3.7 -2 -0.1 Dewayne Wise
Jordan Gore 380 .221 .281 .291 56 .070 .308 2.8 3 -0.2 Adam Haley
Brent Rooker 537 .225 .291 .411 88 .186 .296 4.2 -4 -0.4 Kevin Eberwein
Leonardo Reginatto 356 .231 .275 .304 58 .073 .292 2.8 4 -0.4 Steve Sisco
Luke Raley 525 .225 .291 .366 77 .141 .320 3.8 1 -0.4 Otis Green
Drew Maggi 316 .220 .284 .290 57 .070 .295 2.8 1 -0.5 Ray Holbert
Wilin Rosario 451 .248 .295 .420 91 .172 .294 4.4 -6 -0.5 Tom Nevers
Andy Wilkins 308 .203 .276 .399 80 .196 .257 3.8 -2 -0.5 Jay Gainer
Randy Cesar 480 .236 .279 .327 64 .091 .332 3.2 1 -0.5 Jack Hannahan
Jordany Valdespin 249 .242 .300 .339 74 .097 .287 3.6 -7 -0.6 Luis Maza
Adam Rosales 357 .207 .265 .343 64 .136 .270 3.0 -1 -0.7 Shane Halter
Mike Olt 327 .193 .276 .338 66 .145 .282 3.1 -4 -0.7 Jose Santos
Jaylin Davis 483 .209 .266 .339 63 .130 .307 3.1 4 -0.9 Daniel Carte
Zander Wiel 516 .220 .283 .356 72 .136 .282 3.5 0 -1.0 Brian Turner
Edgar Corcino 426 .239 .287 .350 72 .112 .297 3.5 -3 -1.0 Ed Yacopino
Jordan Pacheco 161 .197 .255 .259 41 .061 .248 2.2 -6 -1.0 Chad Moeller

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Jose Berrios R 25 14 10 3.93 32 32 183.3 169 80 22 59 181
Kyle Gibson R 31 11 10 4.48 29 29 170.7 178 85 22 65 135
Jake Odorizzi R 29 9 8 4.45 30 30 153.7 148 76 22 59 136
Zack Littell R 23 9 8 4.57 30 22 141.7 152 72 17 53 109
Martin Perez L 28 8 7 4.58 26 22 129.7 144 66 13 45 79
Fernando Romero R 24 8 7 4.64 25 22 132.0 143 68 16 47 91
Ervin Santana R 36 7 7 4.61 21 21 121.0 124 62 19 36 90
Lewis Thorpe L 23 7 7 4.67 24 23 113.7 119 59 17 42 102
Taylor Rogers L 28 3 2 3.22 70 0 67.0 61 24 5 19 63
Kohl Stewart R 24 6 6 4.80 27 22 131.3 142 70 14 58 86
Adalberto Mejia L 26 6 6 4.41 22 20 100.0 106 49 12 35 77
Stephen Gonsalves L 24 9 9 4.84 28 24 124.7 126 67 13 72 104
Michael Pineda R 30 5 4 4.50 15 15 80.0 88 40 12 21 72
Devin Smeltzer L 23 6 6 4.78 31 17 107.3 124 57 17 28 79
Andrew Vasquez L 25 3 2 3.68 46 1 66.0 57 27 6 31 76
D.J. Baxendale R 28 3 3 4.63 32 11 79.7 89 41 10 24 52
Gabriel Moya L 24 3 3 4.23 64 8 76.7 74 36 10 27 71
Sean Poppen R 25 7 7 4.95 25 21 116.3 130 64 16 42 80
Trevor Hildenberger R 28 5 4 4.00 65 0 69.7 69 31 9 19 64
Cody Stashak R 25 3 3 4.76 30 9 73.7 78 39 11 25 60
Blake Parker R 34 2 1 3.88 61 0 58.0 53 25 8 20 62
Addison Reed R 30 4 3 3.94 63 0 61.7 64 27 7 16 50
Trevor May R 29 3 2 3.86 49 0 44.3 41 19 5 19 48
Tyler Duffey R 28 5 5 4.31 57 1 79.3 82 38 10 23 68
Ryne Harper R 30 3 3 3.95 37 0 57.0 56 25 7 17 55
Randy LeBlanc R 27 6 6 5.18 19 14 83.3 95 48 10 31 47
Tyler Wells R 24 7 8 5.29 22 21 102.0 110 60 18 39 83
Mike Morin R 28 3 3 4.37 48 2 57.7 62 28 7 15 45
Justin Nicolino L 27 6 8 5.26 27 24 131.7 164 77 22 39 71
Adam Bray R 26 3 3 5.03 24 9 77.0 93 43 15 18 55
Kevin Comer R 26 3 3 4.58 47 1 57.0 59 29 7 27 50
Matt Belisle R 39 1 1 4.40 43 0 45.0 47 22 6 12 34
Alan Busenitz R 28 4 4 4.79 49 2 67.7 73 36 10 24 56
Jake Reed R 26 2 2 4.74 36 1 49.3 49 26 6 24 41
Preston Guilmet R 31 1 1 4.66 36 1 46.3 48 24 8 13 43
Ryan Eades R 27 4 4 5.38 31 10 80.3 88 48 12 34 59
Dario Alvarez L 30 2 2 4.58 38 0 37.3 36 19 5 21 39
Austin D. Adams R 32 2 2 4.91 30 1 33.0 35 18 4 17 27
Dan Camarena L 26 6 8 5.62 24 23 117.0 140 73 20 46 74
Luke Bard R 28 3 3 4.73 40 0 59.0 60 31 8 27 54
Jorge Alcala R 23 6 8 5.62 24 17 91.3 99 57 14 59 71
Chris Gimenez R 36 0 0 9.00 4 0 4.0 6 4 2 0 1
Pat Dean L 30 5 7 5.76 18 15 89.0 115 57 15 25 41
Dusten Knight R 28 3 3 5.02 35 1 57.3 62 32 10 24 49
Matt Magill R 29 3 3 4.94 45 0 58.3 59 32 10 28 56
Tim Collins L 29 3 3 5.24 59 0 44.7 45 26 6 29 42
Chase De Jong R 25 7 9 5.76 29 27 148.3 178 95 29 53 89
Tyler Jay L 25 5 6 5.66 34 8 76.3 90 48 13 31 46
Zack Weiss R 27 3 4 5.54 33 1 37.3 39 23 7 22 35
Jeff Ames R 28 2 3 6.17 38 1 46.7 48 32 9 36 47

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Berrios 778 8.89 2.90 1.08 .292 111 90 3.91 3.2 Jack Morris
Kyle Gibson 747 7.12 3.43 1.16 .300 98 103 4.47 2.0 Omar Olivares
Jake Odorizzi 661 7.97 3.46 1.29 .286 98 102 4.47 1.9 Roger Bailey
Zack Littell 628 6.92 3.37 1.08 .307 96 105 4.48 1.5 Aaron Cook
Martin Perez 570 5.48 3.12 0.90 .305 95 105 4.35 1.4 Jim O’Toole
Fernando Romero 586 6.20 3.20 1.09 .301 94 106 4.64 1.3 Cha-Seung Baek
Ervin Santana 519 6.69 2.68 1.41 .285 95 105 4.72 1.3 Bob Forsch
Lewis Thorpe 500 8.08 3.33 1.35 .306 94 107 4.57 1.1 Danny Borrell
Taylor Rogers 279 8.46 2.55 0.67 .296 136 74 3.22 1.1 Sparky Lyle
Kohl Stewart 592 5.89 3.97 0.96 .300 91 110 4.73 1.1 Rick Berg
Adalberto Mejia 438 6.93 3.15 1.08 .304 96 104 4.37 1.1 Scott Sauerbeck
Stephen Gonsalves 569 7.51 5.20 0.94 .302 90 111 4.71 1.0 Jimmy Anderson
Michael Pineda 345 8.10 2.36 1.35 .319 97 103 4.16 1.0 Brian Tollberg
Devin Smeltzer 472 6.62 2.35 1.43 .313 91 109 4.69 0.8 Kevin Pickford
Andrew Vasquez 287 10.36 4.23 0.82 .302 119 84 3.67 0.8 Buzz Oliver
D.J. Baxendale 350 5.87 2.71 1.13 .304 94 106 4.53 0.6 Bill Fischer
Gabriel Moya 329 8.33 3.17 1.17 .294 100 100 4.17 0.6 Pat Clements
Sean Poppen 519 6.19 3.25 1.24 .305 86 117 4.83 0.6 Michael Macdonald
Trevor Hildenberger 296 8.27 2.45 1.16 .300 109 92 3.98 0.5 Jeff Tam
Cody Stashak 323 7.33 3.05 1.34 .300 92 109 4.64 0.5 Steve Parris
Blake Parker 246 9.62 3.10 1.24 .294 109 92 3.99 0.4 Steve Reed
Addison Reed 261 7.30 2.34 1.02 .305 107 93 3.83 0.4 Kent Tekulve
Trevor May 192 9.74 3.86 1.02 .305 113 88 3.87 0.4 Jason Bulger
Tyler Duffey 340 7.71 2.61 1.13 .305 101 99 4.06 0.4 Jose Santiago
Ryne Harper 243 8.68 2.68 1.11 .304 107 93 3.87 0.3 Terry Leach
Randy LeBlanc 374 5.08 3.35 1.08 .302 84 119 4.88 0.3 Brian Allard
Tyler Wells 453 7.32 3.44 1.59 .300 83 121 5.14 0.3 Carlos Crawford
Mike Morin 249 7.02 2.34 1.09 .307 100 100 4.10 0.3 Bill Fischer
Justin Nicolino 593 4.85 2.67 1.50 .312 80 124 5.27 0.2 Wade Blasingame
Adam Bray 341 6.43 2.10 1.75 .315 84 119 5.15 0.2 Dick Marlowe
Kevin Comer 256 7.89 4.26 1.11 .308 95 105 4.57 0.1 Mike Gardner
Matt Belisle 193 6.80 2.40 1.20 .295 96 104 4.31 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck
Alan Busenitz 298 7.45 3.19 1.33 .307 91 110 4.61 0.0 Rob Marquez
Jake Reed 219 7.48 4.38 1.09 .295 92 108 4.65 0.0 Ken Wright
Preston Guilmet 199 8.35 2.53 1.55 .301 91 110 4.51 0.0 Dan Giese
Ryan Eades 362 6.61 3.81 1.34 .302 81 123 5.08 0.0 Preston Larrison
Dario Alvarez 169 9.40 5.06 1.21 .304 92 108 4.65 0.0 Arnold Earley
Austin D. Adams 150 7.36 4.64 1.09 .307 89 112 4.73 0.0 Jerry Johnson
Dan Camarena 534 5.69 3.54 1.54 .309 78 128 5.44 0.0 Rich Rundles
Luke Bard 264 8.24 4.12 1.22 .304 92 108 4.66 -0.1 Sean Green
Jorge Alcala 430 7.00 5.81 1.38 .302 78 128 5.69 -0.1 Edwin Morel
Chris Gimenez 18 2.25 0.00 4.50 .267 49 206 9.15 -0.2 John Gardner
Pat Dean 402 4.15 2.53 1.52 .314 76 132 5.36 -0.2 Dave Gassner
Dusten Knight 257 7.69 3.77 1.57 .304 84 119 5.12 -0.2 John Koronka
Matt Magill 261 8.64 4.32 1.54 .299 86 117 5.05 -0.3 Kevin Gryboski
Tim Collins 207 8.46 5.84 1.21 .305 83 120 5.10 -0.3 Arnold Earley
Chase De Jong 671 5.40 3.22 1.76 .302 76 132 5.71 -0.3 Mark Ratekin
Tyler Jay 350 5.42 3.66 1.53 .303 77 129 5.61 -0.3 Wade Blasingame
Zack Weiss 172 8.44 5.30 1.69 .302 76 131 5.64 -0.4 Ryan Baker
Jeff Ames 224 9.06 6.94 1.74 .302 71 141 6.15 -0.7 Bart Evans

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


Effectively Wild Episode 1336: Season Preview Series: Twins and Phillies

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about differently shaped players being in the best shape of their lives, the Luis Severino extension, and three trends: the disappearance of highly ranked pitching prospects, the plateauing of league-wide fastball velocity, and arbitration-eligible players signing team-friendly extensions. Then they preview the 2019 Minnesota Twins (17:54) with Baseball Prospectus editor-in-chief Aaron Gleeman, and the 2019 Philadelphia Phillies (46:23) with The Athletic Philadelphia’s lead Phillies writer, Matt Gelb.

Audio intro: The Microphones, "I Felt Your Shape"
Audio interstitial 1: Jeremy Messersmith, "Fast Times in Minnesota"
Audio interstitial 2: Prince, "Still Waiting"
Audio outro: Leonard Cohen, "The Guests"

Link to Ben’s article about pitching prospects
Link to Jeff’s velocity research
Link to Jeff’s post about the Kepler extension
Link to Jeff’s post about the Severino extension
Link to Baseball Mogul offer
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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Max Kepler Didn’t Bet on Himself

We’ve officially entered extension season. This happens every year around the start of spring training, with arbitration hearings ending and with opening day coming up. Some expect that this particular extension season will be unusually busy, given the concerns players have about the state of the free-agent market. Aaron Nola just signed an extension with the Phillies. Jorge Polanco just signed an extension with the Twins. And Max Kepler has also just signed an extension with the Twins. Nothing against Polanco, but I find the Kepler move more interesting.

Kepler was already looking at a 2019 salary of $3.125 million, in the first of four arbitration years. He’d qualified as a Super Two. That’s wiped out now, with Kepler and the Twins agreeing to a five-year contract worth $35 million. There’s also a sixth-year club option, worth $10 million. Kepler, therefore, has signed away up to two years of would-be free agency. From Kepler’s own standpoint, he’s now guaranteed his own long-term wealth, as a German kid made good. He wouldn’t have agreed to this if he weren’t happy to do so. At the same time, you wonder what could’ve been. Where is Kepler going to be, as a player, a year from now?

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