The White Sox have spent the past two months atop the American League Central despite a lineup that’s been nothing close to whole. On a more or less monthly basis, the team has lost a key member of its starting lineup to the Injured List, beginning with left fielder Eloy Jiménez, who ruptured his left pectoral tendon just before Opening Day, and followed by center fielder Luis Robert, who strained his right hip flexor in early May, and then second baseman Nick Madrigal, who tore a pair of hamstring tendons in early June. Now they’ll be without Yasmani Grandal for at least the next four to six weeks, as the switch-hitting catcher tore a tendon in his left knee.

Grandal was already banged up, having departed last Friday’s game in the middle of the fifth inning due to tightness in his left calf. He didn’t play again until Monday. While batting in the sixth inning against the Twins’ Caleb Thielbar, his left knee buckled as he checked his swing on a high 0-2 fastball. He hobbled out of the batter’s box and was soon rolling on the grass in apparent agony, pounding his fists on the ground before being tended to by the White Sox’s head athletic trainer, James Kruk. Initial hopes that he had merely suffered a cramp were doused by manager Tony LaRussa, who in his postgame comments said that Grandal was on crutches in the clubhouse.

The White Sox called the injury a calf strain at the time, but on Tuesday, Grandal was diagnosed with a torn tendon. “I just think it was the twist he made as he made his swing,” La Russa told reporters. “Something got caught. It didn’t free up. You make a turn on it and it got caught and something popped.” The manager said that Grandal would return to Chicago to get a more complete diagnosis. [Update: Shortly after this was published, the White Sox announced that Grandal underwent surgery to repair the torn tendon, and that they will provide an updated timeline, though doctors “continue to expect Grandal to return during the 2021 regular season.”] Read the rest of this entry »

MLB passed the halfway mark of the 2021 season over the long holiday weekend, providing a convenient spot to take a break, look back over the preseason projections, and hopefully not cringe too much about how the predictions are shaking out. Since this is the big midseason update, I used the full-fat ZiPS model for individual players in addition to the normal depth chart reconfiguring, with all the high-fructose algorithms rather than the leaner one used for daily updates.

Let’s start with the American League standings.

I was making a “do not panic” argument on behalf of the Yankees back when they were 5–10 and some people were digging for their doomsday preparedness kits, and while it might not be time to find where you left those water purification tablets, the situation is bleaker now than it was three months ago. Not that the team is actually worse; New York has been on an 88-win pace in the games since that reference point. But an 88-win pace isn’t nearly enough to get out of an early-season hole in a division where there are three other teams with more than detectable pulses. Even projected to play solid baseball the rest of the season, the Yankees have gone from the favorite to the projected fourth-place team.

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These are notes on prospects from Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

There were lots of notable performances in the minors last night, so I covered more players than usual and shortened up some of the notes. Additionally, the 2021 Futures Game rosters were announced today and they are freaking loaded. You can see the entire rosters and access players’ scouting reports on The Board’s seasonal tab. Thanks to Sean Dolinar for his speedy help in getting that up.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A Las Vegas Age: 26 Org Rank: 2 FV: 50
Line: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 4 K

Notes
Puk has now had two consecutive scoreless outings after he surrendered multiple runs in each of his previous six (!). When I saw him during the spring, his velo was only in the low-90s, well below the 96-99 range a fully healthy Puk would typically be operating in. Per Synergy, that velocity has returned to peak levels during the regular season. Today I noticed a change in Puk’s arm slot. This change occurred earlier this month. I don’t know if that velo rebound occurred in concert with this change, or if this is something Puk was instructed to do, or if it just began happening naturally. Regardless, this is still a lefty with big velo and a deep coffer of impact secondaries. If he can get right at some point this season, he can be an impact relief weapon for a team fighting for its division, and I still like Puk as a multi-inning reliever long-term. Read the rest of this entry »

Lance Lynn has been among the best pitchers in the majors since the moment he signed with the Rangers back in 2019. Before that season, Lynn accumulated 16.9 WAR in 1,134.1 innings, good for a rate of 2.7 WAR per 180 IP, the epitome of a very good mid-rotation starter. He was remarkably consistent across those seasons, first for the Cardinals from 2011-17 and then for the Twins and Yankees in ’18. The winter after his partial season in New York, Lynn signed with the Rangers for a modest (by quality veteran standards) $30 million over three years. This was a perfectly reasonable contract given his output prior to 2019; if anything, it was a little light. Lynn had proven time and again that he could effectively eat innings for playoff-caliber clubs. From 2012-18, he threw 176.0, 201.2, 203.2, 175.1, 186.1, and 156.2 innings; again, a paragon of consistency.

Starting in 2019, Lynn found another gear. In his first season in Arlington, he posted 6.7 WAR on the back of a minuscule 66 FIP-. He has not looked back since: from 2019 through this season, Lynn is fifth overall in WAR, with 9.9 wins to his name, narrowly edging out Zack Wheeler. The only pitchers with better results have been Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, and Max Scherzer. Much of that production can be attributed to continuing to soak up innings; Lynn is fourth in innings pitched in that time frame. But he has also been excellent on a rate basis. From 2019-21, he has posted the sixth lowest ERA- among starting pitchers and the ninth lowest FIP-. His production is the confluence of continuing to be a workhorse and upping the ante in terms of his per start effectiveness.

Lynn’s salary and the Rangers place in their rebuilding cycle made Lynn an obvious trade candidate this past winter. Lynn’s contract and the White Sox wanting to (let me be nice) maintain “payroll flexibility” while also making a playoff push made the player and club a perfect match. These factors led Chicago to send Dane Dunning and Avery Weems to the Rangers for the last year of Lynn (and his rib-smashing aesthetic). As one can imagine, given his place on the WAR leaderboard through the 2021 season, Lynn has continued to excel on the Southside. He is striking out 28.1% of the batters he faces while posting a walk rate of just 7.0% through 12 starts and a park adjusted ERA 64% better than league average. He has been everything the White Sox could ask for and more. His continued success might make you believe that Lynn is humming along, picking up right where he left off after dominant 2019 and ’20 showings. Read the rest of this entry »

Kevin Goldstein and I have updated the pro portion of the Top 100, which means we quickly reviewed the placement of players in the 50 FV tier and above, and considered who was not yet in those tiers but should be based on how they’ve looked during the first month of the 2021 season. I still have three total org audits to do — Milwaukee, Oakland and the Cubs — before I start peeling graduates off the list. Those will be completed shortly. You can find the updated list here.

Also, if you missed it, Kevin and I updated our draft rankings and posted a Mock Draft on Monday.

The lone change up near the top of the 100 is Riley Greene moving into the top 20; he’s in the mix with several other similarly-aged players with the talent to be consistent All-Stars, like Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, and Corbin Carroll.

DL Hall moved into the 55 FV tier on the strength of his stuff. He’s still walking a fairly high rate of opposing batters but just on the strength of his three plus pitches, could be a Haderesque relief weapon even if he can’t start. Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday night, Nick Madrigal hit a groundball to third base. That’s a normal state of affairs; he’s fourth in the majors in total grounders so far this year. While hustling down the line, however, he tweaked something in his leg and pulled up slightly. It looked like it might be a nagging injury, but the truth turned out to be far worse: Madrigal was diagnosed with a complete tear of one hamstring tendon and a partial tear of another, and the Sox have placed him on the 60-day IL.

Madrigal and the club have a decision to make. A surgery to fix the tears would end his season. The earliest timeline for rehabilitation, though, would place him back on the roster around the end of August, and there’s no guarantee that rehab would go smoothly. The final decision on whether to opt for surgery won’t come this week, but in the meantime, it’s not too early to consider what it means for the AL Central-leading White Sox.

Whether batting at the top or bottom of the lineup, Madrigal had been a spark for Chicago this year. His contact-focused, all-fields grounder game doesn’t resemble the way that baseball is played in the major leagues today, but that doesn’t make it any less effective. Hitting everything you swing at and running like mad afterwards is an effective strategy, particularly when you don’t have power to rely on as a backup. It’s worked to the tune of a .305/.349/.425 line so far this year, good for a 118 wRC+.

Some of the component stats are downright hilarious. Madrigal’s 7.9% strikeout rate is absurd; his 5.1% walk rate is comparatively normal but still much lower than league average; his 3.03 GB/FB ratio ranks fourth in baseball. His 3.7% swinging-strike rate is second only to David Fletcher, and his 91.8% contact rate is the best mark in the majors. If you’re not going to hit the ball hard or at least in the air, you need to make up for it by putting a ton of balls in play, and Madrigal unquestionably does that.

Of greater concern to the White Sox than how he arrives at his offense, however, is how much offense he provides. That’s mostly covered by the 118 wRC+, and that’s a big chunk of offense to replace. Only eight players we list as second basemen have bested that mark, and that includes Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, and Jazz Chisholm Jr., who all get a decent amount of playing time elsewhere on the diamond.

That doesn’t take into account defense, and while defensive metrics don’t agree on Madrigal (UZR and OAA like him, DRS doesn’t), his speed and smooth work with the glove are universally praised by scouts and team executives, not to mention teammates. He looks to be a plus defender at the position, another tough thing to replace midseason.
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In past iterations of this column, a combination of pressing narratives and fatigue with certain pitchers and their respective teams, or a straight up lack of interesting matchups have forced us to get creative. Not so this week, where the first three days of the week each feature games with giant WATCH ME signs stapled to their probable pitchers. Beginning with the Padres-Brewers series, the final week of May has gifted us some undeniably fun fixtures.

Monday, May 24, 7:40 PM ET: Blake Snell vs. Brandon Woodruff

In his first year in San Diego, Blake Snell seems to be learning his new city using a method that many non-pitchers find helpful: a lot of walks. Snell has already issued 25 walks in 40.1 innings (13.7 BB%) and allowed hitters to reach base at a clip comfortably above the league average. The former Ray has a .330 on-base percentage against him, while the rest of the league is at .313. Read the rest of this entry »

Adam Frazier has an admirable goal, one that few of his contemporaries would even contemplate trying to attain. At a time when hitters are going down by way of the K more frequently than at any time in history, the Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman aspires to walk more than he strikes out.

He might actually do it. With Memorial Day right around the corner, Frazier has a 9.6 K% — fourth-best among qualified hitters — and 16 free passes to go with 19 strikeouts. Moreover, he’s been putting barrels on baseballs. To scant acclaim — par for the course when you play in Pittsburgh — Frazier is slashing an eye-opening .337/.399/.466.

Asked about his stated goal, the 29-year-old Mississippi State University product admitted that it won’t be easy.

“Guys today throw harder and harder, with nastier stuff,” said Frazier. “[Hitting] continues to get more difficult. I’ve always felt I have a pretty good eye, it’s just a matter of being able to put the bat on the ball.”

Frazier has fanned twice in a game three times this season, on each occasion punching out against a starter and a reliever. There are no walks in the park in today’s game. From first inning to last, power arms are everywhere you turn.

Whom has he faced that stands out as being especially nasty? Read the rest of this entry »

Prospect writers Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen will sometimes have enough player notes to compile a scouting post. This is one of those dispatches, a collection of thoughts after another week of college baseball and minor league play. Remember: prospect rankings can be found on The Board.

Eric’s Notes

Wes Kath, SS, Desert Mountain High School

High schoolers with profiles driven by their hit tool are becoming more sought-after in the draft room, and every year there are guys who don’t light up the showcase circuit workouts with big tools and instead need some combination of time and impressive swing-and-miss data to be appreciated. Kath is one of those players. On Tuesday, his high school won the Arizona 5A State Championship as Kath homered and reached base several times. He has a sweet lefty swing and advanced bat control, as well as a good baseball frame. He’s currently a shortstop and is capable of making routine plays there, with a sufficient arm for short and good body control, but his size and slow-twitch movements might push him to third base, and some scouts think he’ll eventually end up at first. Kath does not have big bat speed, and his swing tends to look long when he offers at lower pitches, but that’s what has to happen for him to get the barrel there with lift. West Coast hit tool guys like this tend to sign for close to $1 million.

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Heading into the ninth inning of a blowout loss Monday, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli waved the white flag and summoned Willians Astudillo from… wherever he was sitting at the time. La Tortuga already had a scoreless inning under his belt this year, titillating Twins fans and the Baseball Twitterverse with an eephus that limped over the plate at 49 mph. Astudillo’s slow-pitch softball routine was received warmly that first appearance, and in a year where very little has gone right for Minnesota, the locals seemed pleased to see him out there again.

Naturally, we couldn’t get through the outing without an unwritten rules controversy.

With two outs, Astudillo fell behind Yermín Mercedes 3-0. The catcher-turned-hurler boldly stuck with the pitch that he’d ridden to get the first two outs and lobbed another one, this time over the outer half of the plate.

Mercedes hit the tar out of it:

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