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NLCS Coverage: Phillies Stuck in Park

The National League Championship Series (NLCS) Game Two starters put on a show on Friday night. Los Angeles’ Vicente Padilla allowed just one run on four hits and a walk in 7.1 innings (.258 WPA). Philadelphia’s Pedro Martinez (.500 WPA), who hadn’t pitched in a game since Sept. 30, pitched 7.0 innings and allowed just two hits (and no walks).

The most questionable move came when Martinez was pulled from the game with Philadelphia up 1-0 in the eighth. Manager Charlie Manuel chose to bring in reliever Chan Ho Park (-.296 WPA). Park had dominated his former team the night before, so it’s easy to understand the line of thinking.

However, the veteran had just been activated from the disabled list before Game One of the series. Park had not pitched since Sept. 16 due to the injury problem. Why would you sit a guy for a month and then ask him to pitch on back-to-back days? It was well publicized that Park was not at 100% at the start of the series.

On offense for the Phillies, only first baseman Ryan Howard and catcher Carlos Ruiz had positive WPAs at .141 and .058, respectively.

The rest of the offense will look to get rolling tonight against LA’s Hiroki Kuroda, who has historically had good success against Philadelphia. Kuroda was activated prior to the NLCS after missing time due to a neck injury. He has not pitched since Sept. 28. As a result, the bullpen will be on its toes.

Cliff Lee will head to the hill for Philly. The club has won both of Lee’s 2009 playoff starts. The game will begin in Philadephia shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern.

NLCS Coverage: Phillies Keep Mashing

The pitching was not pretty but the bats certainly picked up the slack for Philadelphia. The Phillies took Game One of the National League Championship Series on Thursday night with an 8-6 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

On offense, both left fielder Raul Ibanez and catcher Carlos Ruiz added nails to the Dodgers’ Game One coffin with three-run homers. Ruiz posted a WPA of .275, while Ibanez sat at .151. Ruiz added a single and walk to his performance on Thursday. Ibanez also had a single and scored a second run. For the third straight game, first baseman Ryan Howard made the most of one hit. He drove in two runs, scored once and walked twice. His WPA was .158.

Both left-handed starters, Cole Hamels for Philly (-.196 WPA) and Clayton Kershaw for LA (-.301), struggled. The pitcher of the game was Philadelphia reliever Chan Ho Park, who interestingly enough pitched for Los Angeles last year. He took to the mound in the seventh inning and posted a .240 WPA while striking out a batter and inducing two ground balls. Park missed the National League Division Series with injury woes and is not considered to be at full strength yet.

It’s not often that a team will walk away with a win in Los Angeles after allowing five Dodgers hitters to bang out two or more hits. Both James Loney (.193 WPA) and Andre Ethier (.176) had three hits. Manny Ramirez (-.042) was held to just one hit – but it was a two-run homer off of Hamels.

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Let’s take a closer look at Carlos Ruiz‘ season. He doesn’t get a lot of attention as a top catcher because he doesn’t hit for a high average or slug a lot of homers, but the Panama native is better than most people realize (at least in the catcher context). For the ’09 season, Ruiz finished tied for fourth with St. Louis’ Yadier Molina in wOBA (.337) amongst catchers in the National League (300+ at-bats).

His ISO of .171 was good for fifth in the league for backstops. Ruiz also had the third highest walk rate and the third lowest strikeout rate. His BABIP of just .266 helps to explain the low batting average. He had the fourth best WPA (0.37) behind Atlanta’s Brian McCann (1.57), Arizona’s Miguel Montero (0.80), and Cincinnati’s Ramon Hernandez (0.62).

Overall, Ruiz was worth about $10 million to the Phillies in 2009 (he’s actually making just $475,000, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts), or slightly more than two runs above replacement. With his post-season contributions to this point added in, Ruiz has been worth much more than that to the Phillies.

NLCS Coverage: Phillies Ready for Game One

Game One of the National League Championship Series (NLCS) begins in Los Angeles tonight. Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels will take to the mound against the Dodgers’ young lefty Clayton Kershaw.

Hamels will look to throw the ball better than he did in his one NLDS start against Colorado. In that game, Hamels took the loss after allowing four runs on seven hits in five innings of work. If confidence plays into his success at all, Hamels should be brimming with it when facing the Dodgers. He dominated the team a year ago in the ’08 NLCS.

The offense was pretty darn successful against Colorado in the National League Division Series. Entering the ’09 NLCS, the hot hitters include the big names like Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, and Raul Ibanez. Even Carlos Ruiz got in on the act. The one player we have yet to see break out in post-season play is shortstop Jimmy Rollins. He scored just one run in the NLDS, and posted an on-base average of just .263. Rollins did not drive in any runs, either, although, to be fair, that is not his job.

The bench – Miguel Cairo, Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, and Ben Francisco – was also quiet. Collectively, the quartet went 0-for-8 with one walk. That lack of production from the veterans could very easily have a much larger impact in the NLCS than it did in the NLDS.

As mentioned, these two teams faced off in the ’08 NLCS… With few major subtractions on either team, let’s have a look at the key additions for each club from one year ago.

Key Additions for Philadelphia:
Chan Ho Park, RHP
Pedro Martinez, RHP
Cliff Lee, LHP
Raul Ibanez, LF

Key Additions for Los Angeles:
Ronald Belisario, RHP
Vicente Padilla, RHP
George Sherrill, LHP
Randy Wolf, LHP
Jeff Weaver, RHP
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Orlando Hudson, 2B
Jim Thome, 1B

Los Angeles has certainly had the bigger of the two face-lifts. Overall, though, you have to like the value of Philadelphia’s four additions over the eight players that LA added, based on what they collectively provided during the regular season: 12.3 vs 9.2 WAR.

On paper, it’s hard to pick a favorite to win the NLCS. Both teams have good pitching and good hitting. For the fans, this could end up being a very entertaining series. I’m also willing to bet that the bullpens and benches will play much larger roles than they did in the two division series.

NLDS Coverage: Phillies Movin’ On

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Colorado Rockies by the score of 5-4 on Monday night to take the best-of-five National League Division Series (NLDS) in four games. It was certainly an exciting end to the series with Colorado storming back to take the lead by the score of 4-2 in the eighth inning, with a three-run explosion. Unfortunately, yet another veteran closer blew up as Huston Street gave up three runs to the Phillies in the ninth inning.

Both starters were solid: Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez went 7.0 innings and posted a WPA of .133. Philly’s Cliff Lee went 7.1 innings and posted a WPA of .276. Offensively, Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard led the way for Philadelphia. Werth drove in two runs, plated once and posted a WPA of .397. Howard, again, made the most of one hit in the game – a double – and he drove in two runs and scored once. His WPA was .320.

Offensive MVP: Ryan Howard
Howard led the team with six RBI in the NLDS, and he also scored three runs. He heated up throughout the series, posting WPAs each game of .007, .115, .208, and .320.

Pitching MVP: Cliff Lee
Lee pitched a total of 16.1 innings out of a possible 18.0 frames, saving the bullpen and giving the team a great opportunity to win both games, which it did. He posted WPAs of .397 and .276.

Honorable Mentions:
Colorado’s most consistent hitter, despite the overall losing effort in the series, was young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. In 17 at-bats, he hit .588/.632/.882 with 10 hits in four games. He also stole two bases, walked twice and struck out just once. Gonzalez had at least two hits in each game.

Veteran catcher Yorvit Torrealba had a big impact on the series as well, posting WPAs of .021, .213, -.132 and .321. He also played solid defense and did a nice job with his game calling. Torrealba led Rockies hitters with five RBI in the series and was second to Gonzalez in total bases with 10.

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It’s now onto Los Angeles, where Philadelphia will face the Dodgers on Thursday night. The starters have not been announced yet, but lefty Cole Hamels is expected to get the ball in Game One of the National League Championship Series (NLCS). The two teams faced off in the 2008 NLCS, as well, with Philly coming out on top and eventually winning the World Series.

NLDS Coverage: Phillies in the Driver’s Seat

I think it’s safe to say that the Game 3 of the National League Division Series (NLDS) between Philadelphia and Colorado was not a pretty one… and it was a little painful to watch for those of us who hate the cold. Neither starter – Jason Hammel for Colorado and J.A. Happ for Philly – made it into the fifth inning. The Rockies pitchers appeared to have problems with the cold and issued eight walks in the game. Philly starters gave up four free passes, including two in one inning of work by Brad Lidge. He shut the door in the ninth inning, but Lidge kept fans – on both sides – on the edge of their seats through the entire ordeal.

With a WPA of .430, young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez attempted to win the game all by his lonesome. He has looked extremely impressive in this series, finally living up to the lofty reputation as a top prospect. On Philly’s side, second baseman Chase Utley had a solid game with a WPA of .274. He had three hits, including a solo homer. Utley also scored two runs. Although he had just one hit in four at-bats, first baseman Ryan Howard posted a WPA of .208 and drove in two runs. The bullpen took a potential hit when left-handed reliever Scott Eyre had to leave the game with a twisted ankle.

Game 4

It’s going to be another cold night on Monday evening as the Rockies host Game 4 of the NLDS. It will be a good pitching matchup with Ubaldo Jimenez going for the home side, and Cliff Lee taking the ball for Philly. Lee dominated Colorado in the first game of the series and pitched a complete game. That, of course, was in a more favorable pitching environment and with the home-field advantage.

The bullpens were used pretty heavily by both clubs last night: Colorado used six relievers, Philadelphia used five relievers. Eyre is likely unavailable for Philly. The Phillies still have Pedro Martinez in the ‘pen, who has yet to throw a pitch in the series.

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A couple quick observations from the other series this past week:
1. I have never seen a veteran closer look as nervous facing a lineup as Joe Nathan appeared on Friday. Horrible results followed his arrival on the mound. I couldn’t believe it when manager Ron Gardenhire brought Nathan out again on Sunday after watching him in the previous matchup. I knew the series was over when Nathan walked in.

2. Watching Scott Kazmir in the third inning of the Angels-Red Sox game on Sunday was an eye opener. I can see why he’s struggled at times this year. With runners on second base – first Jacoby Ellsbury and then Dustin Pedroia – Kazmir’s grips on the ball were clearly visible in his glove; I was able to call every pitch without having to try and decipher the catcher’s signal. Not surprisingly, both Pedroia and Victor Martinez swung like they knew exactly what type of pitch was coming.

NLDS Coverage: A Snow Day in Colorado

Update: Due to cold and snow in Colorado, Saturday’s game has been postponed until Sunday at 8:07 p.m. Game 4 has been moved to Monday. A special thanks to reader Edmund for the FYI.

The Philadelphia Phillies organization has announced that right-hander Pedro Martinez will start Game 3 of the National League Division Series against the Colorado Rockies today (Saturday). The game begins at 9:37 p.m. (eastern). With Joe Blanton having been used in relief on Thursday (albeit for just one inning), it made sense to go with the veteran hurler who has more playoff experience. As well, Martinez was signed late in the year for this very situation: October baseball.

Although he made just nine starts this year, Martinez was relatively effective despite lacking his fastball of yesteryear. Given that he topped five innings just four times, though, the bullpen could come into play early on Saturday. Luckily, both Blanton and J.A. Happ – starters during the regular season – are available in the ‘pen. In his last start of the regular season (against Houston), Martinez lasted just four innings and he allowed three runs – including two homers. His fastball was hitting 92 mph in the first inning, but it touched 90 mph just twice in the second inning and beyond.

To have success on Saturday, Martinez will need to mix his four pitches (fastball, slider/cutter, curve, change) and also have his good control (1.61 BB/9). The cold weather in Colorado could very well hamper his command of the ball. The forecast is calling for freezing drizzle during the day, which will turn to a light snow this evening as the temperature dips below freezing(!). There could even be a threat of fog if the game is a long one.

The edge would certainly seem to favor the Rockies club, as the players have more experience playing in colder temperatures (mind you, Philly isn’t exactly balmy right now). However, Martinez is a smart veteran hurler, whose numbers clearly show that he still has something in the tank.

NLDS Coverage: Philly’s Role Reversal

Game 2 of the National League Division Series (NLDS) clearly did not go as well as Philadelphia had hoped it would. However, if one positive is to be taken away from the game it would be that the offense is getting on-base with a sprinkling of walks and 23 hits in two games.

The 28 runners left on base, though, is highly unacceptable. Leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins has left five men on base, while No. 2 hitter Shane Victorino has stranded four. Rollins has yet to score a run and Victorino has plated once.

Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez have been the hottest hitters through two games. Ibanez has driven in four runs, Werth has scored three runs, while Howard has two runs scored and two RBI. The big first base in hitting the ball well – and with authority. Of his six balls put into play in the series, four have gone for line drives. Interestingly, Ibanez has been succeeding in the series by hitting ground balls. The left-fielder has put eight balls in play and six of those have come on the ground. Werth has been a mixed bag.

If Philly is going to have success against the Rockies, the club needs to find away to get players like Rollins and Victorino into scoring position so the hot hitters (and those that are paid to drive in runs) can bring them home. Right now, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are getting on base, while Rollins and Victorino are being asked to bring them in.

Game 3

What we know: They’re expecting snow for Game 3 (seriously). What we don’t know: Who is pitching for the Phillies. Jason Hammel will be on the mound for Colorado. Philly will send either Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez to the hill. Rookie starter J.A. Happ, who has been dealing with an injured shin, is expected to be available out of the bullpen. The third game of the NLDS is scheduled for 9:37 p.m. eastern time on Saturday. We’ll have more on Game 3 on Saturday morning.

NLDS Coverage: Phillies Strike First

The defending World Champions came away with a win against the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Wednesday. Starter Cliff Lee, obtained from Cleveland at mid-season, threw a complete game and allowed just six hits. He did not walk a batter and he struck out five Colorado hitters.

Lee threw 70% of his pitches for strikes against the Colorado batters. The opposing hitters who had the most luck against him were outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, both of whom had two hits.

Lee’s strategy was clear in the game: Pitch off of the fastball. The Colorado batters were unable to handle his combination of velocity, movement and location. In the first inning of the game, 11 of Lee’s 14 pitches were fastballs. Fast-forward to the ninth inning and 15 of Lee’s 17 pitches were four-seam fastballs (the other two pitches were a curveball and a changeup). In the final frame, Lee’s fastball ranged from 88-94 mph – including the last pitch of the inning, which was a 94 mph heater that third baseman Garrett Atkins swung through. Lee’s best pitch all year has been his fastball (18.1 wFB) so he stuck to his strengths and he had success.

Game 2

Today, the Phillies will send Cole Hamels to the mound against Colorado’s veteran hurler Aaron Cook. Hamels will likely look to set up the Rockies hitters with his fastball before going to his changeup for outs (11.7 wCH). The Rockies that have had the most success hitting changeups include first baseman Todd Helton, right-fielder Brad Hawpe, and center-fielder Dexter Fowler.

Cook is predominantly a sinker-ball pitcher (56.7 GB%), who also utilizes a slider mostly to throw off hitters’ timings. The key for the Phillies hitters will be to concentrate on driving the ball hard, and to not worry about trying to lift the ball or hit the long ball. Career-wise, a number of Phillies hitters have had success against Cook, including Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth. Pinch-hitter Matt Stairs is a perfect 3-for-3 against Cook in his career, including a homer.

NLDS Preview: The Reigning Champs

The reigning world champion Philadelphia Phillies are back in the playoffs. The club began the 2008 National League Division Series (NLDS) by facing the Milwaukee Brewers and took the match-up in four games. This year, the Phillies team will have home-field advantage again in the NLDS as it faces the Colorado Rockies – a team mixed with young, exciting talent and veteran stability.

The Phillies club is virtually the same team that won the World Series in 2008, with the key difference being the switch in outfielders from Pat Burrell to Raul Ibanez, which really works out in Philly’s favor. Ibanez has been a solid addition to the offense all season long. The club also shed a number of prospects to acquire veteran starter Cliff Lee from the Cleveland Indians at mid-season.

The Starting Rotation: In the best-of-five series, the club will likely start with young ace Cole Hamels and follow him up with a second left-hander in Lee. The club then has the option of going with veteran right-hander Joe Blanton, the ageless Pedro Martinez, or rookie southpaw J.A. Happ. The club was dealt a bit of a blow when veteran hurler Jamie Moyer underwent surgery for torn muscles in his groin/abdomen.

Cole Hamels: The Phillies’ ace was not quite as sharp in 2009 as he’s been in recent years, even though he was certainly better than his 4.32 ERA suggests (3.72 FIP). The lefty was too hittable with 206 hits allowed in 193.2 innings, but his walk rate remained excellent at 2.00 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was respectable at 7.81 K/9. The biggest difference in ’09 over ’08 was the quality of his fastball, which took a step backwards. Hamels was not overly sharp in his last three regular season appearances.

Cliff Lee: The lefty was a force in the rotation for the second half of the season in Philadelphia. Unfortunately, he has zero playoff experience. He’s also coming off of a career high innings-pitched total at 231.2 innings. His worst month(s) of the year was Sept/Oct when he allowed 39 hits in 29 innings.

Joe Blanton: Blanton has always been rather steady and he has provided five straight seasons of 30+ starts. The 28-year-old hurler saw his strikeout rate jump this year to a career high at 7.51 K/9, a 2.50 K/9 improvement from ’08. One of the reasons for the jump was a much-improved changeup. He has solid post-season numbers with 16 hits, eight walks, and 20 strikeouts in 19 innings

Pedro Martinez: Martinez is a great story after sitting out the majority of the season and making just nine starts. His stuff is not what it once was, but he is a wily pitcher who has excellent control (1.61 BB/9). You have to be a little worried with how hard Martinez has been hit (line-drive rate of 26.6%) and by how low his ground-ball rate is (29.5%). Philly brought him in for his late-season heroics, though, so don’t bet against him.

J.A. Happ: Happ could very easily walk away with the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2009, but he is an unproven commodity in playoff baseball… and Philly is certainly not the most forgiving of fan bases. Happ did appear in one NLCS game in ’08. He pitched three inning while allowing four hits and two walks.

The Bullpen: Former (current?) closer Brad Lidge’s struggles have been well-documented, but unfortunately the team’s achille’s heel is its bullpen. Ryan Madson is an option at closer, but he has not been battle-tested as a late-inning reliever. He does have a fairly lethal fastball-changeup combination. For an outside-the-box thought, perhaps the Phillies should try Happ as the go-to guy with the game on the line? With runners in scoring position in ’09, he held opposing hitters to a line of .158/.253/.226.

The Lineup: The offense is definitely where it’s at for Philly. Four players (Howard, Werth, Ibanez, and Utley) had 30 or more homers.

Ryan Howard: He’s a grip-and-rip slugger with 45 homers and a strikeout rate of 30.2%, but he’s also an RBI machine with 140+ RBI in each of the past two seasons. Howard is a pretty big fan of fastballs and sliders.

Chase Utley: Utley will certainly be looking to atone for his lackluster finish to the regular season, which saw him hit .204/.304/.343 in 108 at-bats. His post-season experience has been up-and-down; last year he hit for a poor average but he got on base and drove in some key runs.

Jimmy Rollins: It was a relatively poor season for the 2007 NL MVP, but the shortstop still managed to hit 21 homers with 40 doubles and 31 steals? Oh, and he scored 100 runs… a lot of people would love to have that kind of off year. His second half of the year was much better than the first half, so hopefully that bodes well for the playoff momentum.

Jayson Werth: The Orioles and Blue Jays gave up on the former No. 1 draft pick (who was originally a catcher) but it’s Philadelphia that is reaping the benefits. Werth was a multifaceted threat in 2009 with 36 homers, 20 steals, 91 walks and 11 outfield assists. He’s particularly potent against southpaws, with a line of .302/.436/.644.

Raul Ibanez: The 37-year-old outfielder came back to earth after an out-of-this-world first two months of the season, but he still finished with excellent numbers. He’s also swinging a powerful bat right now with seven homers in his last 91 at-bats. Despite swinging from the left side, Ibanez loves to hit against southpaws and he had a slugging percentage of .639 in ’09.

Shane Victorino: He doesn’t belt homers like the other four hitters (although he does have some pop with a .153 ISO), but Victorino is one of the key offensive players for the Phillies after scoring 102 runs as a table-setter. Although he played in a career-high 156 games, Victorino stole just 25 bases, the lowest total in three seasons… and he was caught eight times.

The Bench: The names don’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of Colorado fans, but the veteran bench core of outfielder Matt Stairs, catcher Paul Bako, and infielder Greg Dobbs certainly has a lot of experience. Stairs has excellent power, even in his 40s, and he’s not afraid to go up to the plate swinging the bat while looking to take the ball deep. Dobbs struggled as a pinch hitter this season and was just 9-for-54 with six walks and 11 K. The biggest downside to the veteran trio is that they’re all left-handed.

Does Cito Gaston Work for Boston?

Manager Cito Gaston’s surprise return to the fold in 2008 breathed new life into a floundering organization. The Toronto Blue Jays’ skipper, though, may be at fault for the club’s mid-season demise in the standings.

On May 19, the Jays club was 2.5 games ahead of Boston and 3.5 games ahead of New York in the American League East standings. Now, on the last day of June, the club is in fourth place and seven games behind the first-place Boston Red Sox. How did this happen?

As of June 20, the Jays club had played 78 games (41-37). Five regulars had played 76 games or more: Aaron Hill, Marco Scutaro, Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios. Two of those players (Rios and Wells) have been terrible this season and were also left in the No. 3 and 4 holes in the lineup until mid-June.

Two other players are obviously being over-worked by the manager. Hill appeared in just 55 games last year due to a concussion. Despite the time off, the manager has failed to ease the second baseman back into regular play. Scutaro, the club’s undisputed spark plug in the first two months, had never really been a full-time player until last year when he appeared in 145 games. At 33, he’s no spring chicken.

As for Lind, he’s survived remarkably well as the youngest player of the five at 25 years of age and he’s also spent just 26 games in the field. His 50 other appearances have come as the club’s designated hitter.

These five players are obviously playing a lot… so let’s look at the monthly splits and let the stats do the talking for a minute.

Adam Lind
April: .315/.400/.533
May: .264/.333/.453
June: .354/.431/.544

Vernon Wells
April: .283/.345/.465
May: .252/.300/.361
June: .210/.259/.350

Alex Rios
April: .248/.304/.366
May: .302/.359/.509
June: .232/.291/.379

Aaron Hill
April: .365/.412/.567
May: .307/.331/.480
June: .234/.278/.477

Marco Scutaro
April: .281/.421/.506
May: .322/.397/.421
June: .235/.325/.333

As you can see above, four of the five players are down significantly in June. I’m sure management has seen the numbers, but the powers that be are now between a rock and a hard place. The regulars need rest badly, but how do you take them out of the lineup now that the playoffs are (not so) slowly slipping away? The main focus on the Jays this season has been the injuries to the pitching staff and the club’s reliance on young, unproven hurlers. But those pitchers have not been the club’s downfall, whatsoever. The team’s ERA/FIP for the past three months: 4.34/4.37 in April, 4.23/4.35 in May, and 4.22/3.91 in June.

As a side note, I’d also like to point out the disappointing use of veteran back-up infielder John McDonald. The fifth-year Jay has been used in just 28 games this season with just 26 at-bats. That is the most embarrassing use of any player in the Majors this season… and yes, he’s spent the entire season on the roster and has been healthy the entire time. Twenty-six at-bats. That, ladies and gentlemen, is not the way to use you bench… Or treat your veteran players. You know, the ones you’d have to turn to if your starting shortstop or second baseman suddenly got hurt…